Saturday, January 13, 2007

Surprise in the Divisional Round of NFL playoffs

The home teams held serve during Wild-Card Weekend of the NFL Playoffs, but I don't see the same thing happening this weekend in the Divisional Round. In fact, it would not surprise me to see 2 or 3 road teams win.

Indianapolis at Baltimore: The Colts are a fashionable choice to pull off an upset, and it could well happen. Their defense contained Kansas City RB Larry Johnson last week, and they have Peyton Manning directing a high-octane offense. ... However, the Ravens' defense is stout against the run and strong against the pass. QB Steve McNair gives the Ravens something they haven't had at that position - consistency, leadership and playmaking skill. No upset here. The Ravens move on.

Phiadelphia at New Orleans: The league's hottest team, the Eagles, pays a visit to the one with the best story, the Saints' resurrection after last season's Hurricane Katrina-induced nightmare. Phiadelphia has the advantage on defense, but New Orleans' offense has more playmakers and a huge homefield edge. The Saints won an earlier meeting, but Philadelphia is a better team now. The Eagles' run continues.

Seattle at Chicago: Based on the regular-season results - the Bears clobbered the Seahawks early in the season, it's easy to pick Chicago. However, the Seahawks have RB Shaun Alexander back and QB Matt Hasselbeck is hitting his stride. The Bears, meanwhile, have a lot of injuries on defense and a very unreliable quarterback in Rex Grossman. Chicago might have peaked too early, but the Bears will edge the Seahawks.

New England at San Diego: Let's see - Patriots defense vs. a young quarterback. Tom Brady vs. a secondary that clearly is the weak link on a very good defense. Seems to add up to a New England upset. The equalizer? Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson and a ferocious front seven. This might be the best matchup of the four. My head tells me that Brady and Coach Bill Belichick will find a way to win. Heart says the Chargers have the talent and drive to win it all this year. Sorry Bolts, going with my head. Patriots pull off the upset.

Friday, January 05, 2007

What's next for the AFC's non-playoff teams?

Buffalo (7-9): The Bills picked up steam as the season progressed, and they not lost their final two games could have made the playoffs. QB JP Losman improved, and RB Willis McGahee was very good when healthy. They still need another WR to complement Lee Evans, but the real problem was their run defense, which was not good and allowed opponents to control the clock.
The verdict: Buffalo seems to be on the right track. With some upgrades in the middle of their defense, they could challenge for a wild-card spot.

Cincinnati (8-8): One of the most disappointing teams in the league this season (along with Carolina, Denver and Miami in my book), the Bengals defense could stop no one, leaving them little margin for error. QB Carson Palmer wasn't himself much of the season, but few expected him to be after major knee surgery. As bad as the run defense was, the pass defense was even worsee, allowing nearly 4,000 yards. On top of that, no team had close to as many major discipline problems and run-ins with the law as the Bengals.
The verdict: This team has prime-time talent but didn't play like it very often. It lost three in a row to close the season and miss the playoffs, and two of the games were winnable. Coach Marvin Lewis seems secure for now, but another season like this and he'll want to have his resume ready.

Cleveland (4-12): Tough to see much progress here. Charlie Frye isn't the answer at QB, and RB Ruben Droughens fell off. WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. were healthy, and proved they're the real deal, but the optimism ends there. The defense was terrible, which is puzzling given that Coach Romeo Crennel was an outstanding defensive coordinator in past jobs and the Browns dedicated many of their free-agent dollars to defense.
The verdict: Cleveland needs a lot of help, especially on the lines and at quarterback.

Denver (9-7): The Broncos' home loss in their finale knocked them from the playoffs and then the sudden death of CB Darrent Williams compounded their pain. Despite having a lot of talent, there are more questions than answers here. Moving rookie QB Jay Cutler into a starting job at midseason might pay off down the road, but in hindsight it didn't make much sense. Acquiring WR Javon Walker was a good move, and CB Champ Bailey was the league's best cover man. The defense fell off a bit, and the running game was a bit more inconsistent. Another puzzle: Denver usually dominates at home, but only was 4-4.
The verdict: The Broncos could bounce back, but a lot will hinge on how they respond to Williams' death and Cutler's on-field leadership. Mike Shanahan is a terrific coach, but I wonder if he's run his course in the Mile High City.

Houston (6-10): If you look closely, there was some progress under first-year coach Gary Kubiak. QB David Carr improved, and the defense has a lot of young talent. Aside from WR Andre Johnson and rookie TE Owen Daniels, there isn't a lot of firepower, especially if RB Domanick Davis can't return to normal after his injury problems.
The verdict: A team that could make a move if it can add some more offense and the young defense matures.

Jacksonville (8-8): A team that was really hurt within its division. The Jaguars' defense was one of the league's better ones, and rookie RB Maurice Jones-Drew was outstanding. The offense lacks imagination and skill at the WR positions, though it did seem to improve under QB David Garrard, whose ability to elude rushers gave the Jags an element QB Byron Leftwich didn't provide.
The verdict: Team at a crossroads. RB Fred Taylor and Leftwich might be history here, and Jacksonville clearly needs to score more points. It won't get any easier in the AFC South.

Miami (6-10): Don't believe the hype. This team wasn't close to being a Super Bowl contender. It again had an excellent defense, particularly DE Jason Taylor and MLB Zach Thomas. Daunte Culpepper wasn't the answer at QB, the WRs weren't a lot better and RB Ronnie Brown fell off a bit in his second year. If Culpepper regains his health, it would be surprising to me to see Miami keep both him and Joey Harrington.
The verdict: A lot depends on whom the Dolphins hire to replace Coach Nick Saban. Whoever comes in better win soon before the core of the defense retires.

Oakland (2-14): The defense showed some signs of life in the second half of the season, but the offense was horrible. Obtaining QB Aaron Brooks was a mistake. In fact, none of the high-profile players on offense (RB LaMont Jordan, WRs Randy Moss and Jerry Porter) should be kept. At least Jordan works hard. Surprisingly, Coach Art Shell was let go. Surprising in that Oakland brass realized the game had indeed passed him by.
The verdict: The entire offense must be gutted and rebuilt, and that will take time. The Raiders likely will stay in-house for a coach, meaning things likely won't improve anytime soon.

Pittsburgh (8-8): I wondered if QB Ben Roethlisberger and the Super Bowl XL victory were flukes, but was convinced I was wrong. Now I'm having second thoughts. A tough start and injuries doomed the men of Steel, who didn't handle the pressure of being champs well. The defense, surprisingly, was more of a problem than the offense.
The verdict: It's unlikely they'll find a better coach than Bill Cowher, but the cupboard is far from bare. It will boil down to which version of the Steelers appears, the aggressive and hungry group, or the passive champions.

Tennessee (8-8): QB Vince Young is the real deal, and he says and does the things people have expected from Michael Vick for years. Jeff Fisher did the best coaching job of anyone in the league (including the Jets' Eric Mangini and the Saints' Sean Payton). The Titans played outstanding during the second half of the season and will be a popular choice as a "surprise" team in 2007.
The verdict: A lot to like here, but teams will have the book on Young next season and the defense needs to tighten up. This is a team that should improve next season, but its record might not because of a tougher schedule and not being able to sneak up on teams like it did this year.

Monday, January 01, 2007

What's next for NFC's non-playoff teams

What's next for teams in the NFC that did not make the playoffs?

Arizona (5-11): Coach Denny Green was fired after three seasons of 6-10, 5-11 and 5-11. They have playmakers all over their offense, but both of their lines stink. ... LB Carlos Dansby and S Adrian Wilson are near stars, but this team can't put it together. ... The Cardinals' new stadium didn't offer much in the way of a home-field advantage.
The verdict: This will be an attractive coaching job because with some line upgrades, this could be a good team in a hurry.

Atlanta (7-9): Coach Jim Mora paid with his job less than 24 hours after season ended, and I wonder how many players will follow him. Mora's three-year record was above .500. ... QB Michael Vick was inconsistent, and most of the high-priced free agents they've brought in on defense (LB Ed Hartwell, DE John Abraham) were injured. ... The WR corps was horrible and RB Warrick Dunn might be winding down. Rookie RB Jerious Norwood is a suitable replacement.
The verdict: This team has the talent to bounce back, but it could also really go south. If they want to rebuild, trading Vick might give them the tools to do it. Much depends on the new coach.

Carolina (8-8): Easily one of the most disappointing teams of 2006. Yes, injuries hurt them, but they fought through more injuries in 2005 and still made the playoffs. ... Spent a lot of money to shore up positions such as WR and OL with little to show for it. The offense really struggled at times, and it appears Jake Delhomme and DeShaun Foster's best days are behind them.
The verdict: 2007 will be a pivotal year for Coach John Fox and the Panthers. Clearly they need more depth because injuries are a fact of life. Another team that needs upgrades at the playmaker positions.

Detroit (3-13): The Lions played hard but do not have the talent at many positions to compete, especially in the back seven on defense. ... Detroit is paying for questionable high draft choices such as WRs Mike Williams and Charles Rogers. Coach Rod Marinelli is safe, but GM Matt Millen should be gone. He's had plenty of time to turn it around and it's arguable the Lions are in worse shape than when he took over. ... QB Jon Kitna played fairly well, WR Roy Williams is terrific. If RB Kevin Jones misses all of 2007 with injury as is speculated, they'll need an upgrade at that position, too.
The verdict: Need a lot of help in a lot of areas, especially on defense. Have to look at a QB or RB with the No. 2 overall pick.

Green Bay (8-8): Will QB Brett Favre return? It all hinges on that. The Packers will have an enormous amount of salary cap space to work with and most other signs are positive. They started four or five rookies all season and the other five rookies on the roster contributed for the league's youngest team. The defense, awful early, improved down the stretch. ... They won four in a row to finish the season and tied Chicago for the best record within the division. ... They beat teams they should and were pounded by teams who were clearly better than they were. ... RB Ahman Green played well despite many predictions to the contrary.
The verdict: If they can add playmakers at WR, RB, TE and another pass rusher on defense, they're going to be a playoff threat in 2007. Regardless of whether Favre retires or not, they need to add another quarterback because Aaron Rodgers remains an unknown quantity.

Minnesota (6-10): The VIkings fell apart down the stretch and lacked offense. Most unsettling for them is their lack of a QB and playmakers at WR. For all the money they've sunk into their secondary, it should be better. ... There is talent here, however, and Brad Childress was not overmatched as an NFL coach. ... Not the same team without Randy Moss and Daunte Culpepper - they don't scare other teams like they did a few years ago.
The verdict: Must add a quarterback in the offseason and some receivers. Not out of the question to consider them a potential playoff team.

St. Louis (8-8): The Rams' offense was very good, their defense was very bad. Sound familiar? They showed some improvement under Coach Scott Linehan, who figured out what Mike Martz was unwilling to - RB Steven Jackson is the real deal. QB Marc Bulger is, too. ... If the Rams had taken better advantage of a weak division, they would have won the division.
The verdict: They need more help on defense, particularly in the secondary and up front, and could use more OL help. ... The Rams are close to being a playoff team, and with a few more upgrades, could overtake Seattle in 2007.

San Francisco (7-9): The 49ers are another team on an upward trend. If their defense improves and QB Alex Smith continues to develop, they are going to push the Rams and Seahawks in the West. ... Coach Mike Nolan is building a team for the long haul. Still need more talent on D, however.
The verdict: Things are looking up on the field. Off it, it's another story. Will the 49ers really leave San Francisco for Santa Clara? This should be one of 2007's emerging teams with some defensive upgrades.

Tampa Bay (4-12): Yes, losing QB Chris Simms to a season-ending injury early on hurt, but this team was not going anywhere with him. RB Carnell Williams had a disappointing second season, but teams could load up against him with no passing attack to worry about. ... The defense is getting old, but is far from the only culprit here.
The verdict: Coach Jon Gruden faces a long rebuilding task here, and the Bucs don't seem to be moving in the right direction. It will be interesting to see how much longer Gruden lasts here. They need a lot of pieces on both sides of the ball to compete.

Washington (5-11): A team in transition. The Redskins took some lumps with Jason Campbell at quarterback, but he's their future. Mark Brunell's career is finished. Washington needs some upgrades at WR. ... Ladell Betts was excellent in replacing the injured Clinton Portis at RB and might make Portis expendable. ... The defense was uncharacteristcally pourous. ... The Champ Bailey for Portis deal a few years back looks like a bad move at this point. ... The 'Skins were sunk by their inability to win on the road and especially within their division.
The verdict: Yes, they'll sign free agents, but will it matter? They thought they'd addressed the same problems this past offseason.