Friday, September 28, 2007

NFL Week 4

Everywhere you look this weekend there are intriguing storylines in NFL games.

Start with the eight intradivision games:
In the AFC, the former Browns (Baltimore Ravens) play the current Browns, who have been sparked by a former Raven (RB Jamal Lewis). Got it? ... The Chiefs visit the Chargers in a battle of two disappointing teams seeking to avoid 1-3 starts in the West. ... And the banged-up Bills play host to a Jets team that can get itself back in the hunt in the East with a second consecutive East victory.

In the NFC, the Central team pair off. Brett Favre can set the all-time touchdown pass record in Minnesota, but more importantly, the Packers can improve to 4-0 with a victory over the Vikings. Meanwhile, the banged-up Bears (who might be without DL Tommie Harris, LB Lance Briggs and three-fourths of their starting secondary) turn to QB Brian Griese at Detroit, where the Lions can score points in bunches but also give them up in bunches. ... In the East, the Eagles and Giants are coming off their first victories, and both need one here to keep pace with the Cowboys. ... In the South and the West, first place is on the line when the Bucs visit the Panthers and the Seahawks pay a call on the 49ers.

ALL IN THE FAMILY
Pittsburgh (3-0) at Arizona (1-2): The Steelers pay a visit to the desert and renew acquaintances with the two assistants passed over for their head coaching vacancy in favor of Coach Mike Tomlin (Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm).
Houston (2-1) at Atlanta (0-3): The Matt Schaub Bowl. Think the Falcons regret trading the QB now?

THAT 70s SHOW (aka GAMES OF THE WEAK)
Turn back the clock three decades and you'd have two marquee matchups - the Raiders at the Dolphins and the Rams at the Cowboys. Instead you get the Games of the Weak.

Oakland (1-2) will start Daunte Culpepper at QB against one of his former teams, Miami (0-3). The Raiders have established a running game with LaMont Jordan, and RB Ronnie Brown showed signs of life for the Dolphins last week. Whomever gets the best of that battle against two decent defenses likely will lead his team to victory.

The beleagured Rams (0-3) will be without two of their top offensive linemen and RB Steven Jackson against a Cowboys team (3-0) that is clicking on all cylinders. Compounding things for St. Louis are QB Marc Bulger's broken ribs and the Rams defense's inability to stop anything. It won't be pretty.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Denver (2-1) at Indianapolis (3-0): The Broncos have to run the ball well and control the clock to have a chance. Running might be a strategy the Colts want to adhere to this week - Denver's secondary is good, but the Broncos can't stop the run.

New England (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2): I think the Patriots will win, particularly if Bengals RB Rudi Johnson can't play, but this Monday night game will be a blast to watch because of all the points being scored. I expect to see at least 70.

UPSET SPECIAL:
Oakland over Miami. Yes, the Dolphins are favored, but I think the Raiders might be better than many (including yours truly) expected at the beginning of the season. Unless Ronnie Brown has a huge day running the ball and Miami can force at least three turnovers, I think Oakland will win handily.
Upset season record: 2-1.

TAKING A BREAK: New Orleans, Washington, Jacksonville and Tennessee.

Friday, September 21, 2007

NFL Week 3

In this week's edition of Sports Illustrated, NFL writer Peter King, who is one of the most decent, hard-working men in the business, writes a piece about the "code" among NFL coaches and how the Jets' Eric Mangini broke that by turning in the Patriots and Bill Belichick for their video spy tactics.

Unnamed source after unnamed source said how bad it was, what a slap in the face it was to Belichick, who helped jump start Mangini's career. Without directly saying it, the piece inferred it's irresponsible to turn in a former mentor for cheating. And let's call it what it is. Belichick and the Patriots cheated. Whether it affected the outcome of the game or whether or not any other teams do it (they do) isn't pertinent for argument's sake.

Also cited was a time when Mangini and the Jets signed a player, a free agent, off the Patriots' roster whom Belichick wanted to retain. That also broke the "code", according to King.

And what of Mangini? Doesn't he have a responsibility to the guys who sign his paycheck? The fans who make that paycheck possible? And to the 53 men plus staffers he faces each week on the field and in the locker room? That responsibility counts for more than " the code" - it's just that few, including King unfortunately, seem to get that.

GAME OF THE WEEK
Chicago (1-1) at Dallas (2-0): The Bears have allowed the fewest points in the NFC, the Cowboys score an average of 13 more per game than any other NFC team. What will give? It comes down to can the Bears establish a ground game to control the clock, and can QB Rex Grossman he limit his mistakes?

GAMES WORTH A PEEK

San Diego (1-1) at Green Bay (2-0): The Packers have two wins over playoff teams from a year ago in two weeks. Their defense and special teams have been so strong they've helped overcome a non-existent running game and a passing game that relies on dink-and-dunk plays. The Chargers are smarting after a rough Week 1 victory over the Bears and a rougher Week 2 loss in New England. LaDainian Tomlinson really can't have three bad games in a row, can he? He has to carry the load, literally, because QB Philip Rivers appears to have no feel for the rush and he's going to see a lot of it.

San Francisco (2-0) at Pittsburth (2-0): The team of the 80s faces the team of the 70s. The 49ers defense was dealt a blow when LB Manny Lawson was lost for the season with a knee injury. If the Steelers stop RB Frank Gore, they'll roll because the Pittsburgh offense appears formidable. So much for new coach Mike Tomlin's break-in period.

Indianapolis (2-0) at Houston (2-0):
Yes, the AFC South title might be on the line. OK, that's an exaggeration, but if the Texans beat the Super Bowl champs, they will have an early lead in the division and stamp themselves a legitimate playoff contender. Unfortunately for the Texans, star WR Andre Johnson will miss the game because of injury. Houston beat Indy at home last season without QB Matt Schaub, however, and he has been a difference-maker for the Texans offense.

GAMES OF THE WEAK
Miami (0-2) at NY Jets (0-2): The good news is one of these teams will pick up a victory. The bad news: They more than likely will still be two games behind the Patriots.

Cleveland (1-1) at Oakland (0-2): Unlike last week, when the Browns rang up 51 points on Cincinnati's crummy defense, they face a team with a real defense. The problem for the Raiders is their offense (RB LaMont Jordan being the exception).

UPSET SPECIAL
Jacksonville (1-1) at Denver (2-0): What's puzzling about the Jaguars is their lack of a running game thus far (they're ranked 21st). The Broncos lead the NFL in yards and are second in yards allowed, yet they've scored just 38 points in two games and have needed a last-second field goal and an overtime field goal to beat teams that are a combined 0-2. I like the Jaguars to take it.

Last week: The Dolphins hung tough for about two and a half quarters then disintegrated vs. the Cowboys, making me 1-1 in upset picks.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

NFL Week 2 rewind

Suppose you're a pro football fan in New York, Kansas City, New Orleans or Philadelphia today. Your team (or in NY's case - both of them) is off to an 0-2 start after reaching the playoffs last season. In the case of New Orleans, your team reached the NFC Championship Game and was widely predicted to be a Super Bowl contender.

Where do you go from here, and is your season lost?

Here are some possible scenarios for you team and my view on their playoff prospects in 2007:

New York Jets - Losing QB Chad Pennington to injury hurts. They're a different team with him in the lineup. The Jets' defense played better vs. the Ravens in Week 2, but the killer was dropped passes by their receivers, particularly late in the game. ... They face a long playoff road in the highly competitive AFC, but not impossible one.

New York Giants - The back seven of their defense looks horrible. The running game has been up and down, and no one knows just how injured QB Eli Manning is. Oh, and it's only taken two weeks for people to start calling for Coach Tom Coghlin's head again. ... It's going to be a long season for the G-men, particularly in the division they play in.

Kansas City - Let's see, the Chiefs can't score and can't run the ball. The highlight so far is their defense is middle of the road and has been good against the pass. Still trying to figure out why they felt the need to trade QB Trent Green. ... The Chiefs should start planning for a high draft choice.

Philadelphia - The Eagles really might be close to being a decent team. The offense is struggling to get in sync, but that's more a product of QB Donovan McNabb regaining strength, timing and comfort. My guess is he will. The defense has been very good and seems to have solved its problems vs. the run. If Philly can put a stop to its mistakes and penalties, it will be in the hunt for a playoff berth because so many NFC teams have major flaws.

New Orleans - How does this team have just 24 points so far in two games? The league's top offense in 2006 has appeared lost at times. It's as if teams have figured out what Coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees are trying to do. The talent does not say this is a middle-of-the-pack offense. The defense has been awful, particularly the secondary - even worse than I thought it would be. The Saints' division is so bad that 8-8 might get them a spot in the playoffs, but I don't know if they can overcome Carolina, which I now view as the front-runner in the NFC South.

Thursday, September 13, 2007

NFL Week 2

So who has the advantage early in the season? Offenses or defenses?

A casual look at Week 1 seems to reveal that defenses are way out in front earlier on, but the numbers suggest otherwise.

During Week 1 six teams scored 30 or more points, and five scored 10 or less. In 2006, one team scored more than 30 but six were held to 10 or fewer, including three who were shut out. So a case could be made there is more offense this season.

What does Week 2 hold? Get ready for blowout city. In 2006, Week 2 saw nine teams held to 10 or fewer points, but six scored 30 or more, including two in the 40s. Thirteen of the 16 games were decided by a touchdown or more, and a 14th was decided by six points.

Looking back at Week 1: Tough week for the NFC front-runners. The Colts smacked the Saints around last Thursday night, the Chargers overcame the Bears in one of the more physical games I've seen, the Seahawks looked pedestrian at times in beating the Bucs, the Eagles were done in by an abundance of mistakes at Green Bay, and the Cowboys' defense - despite a fine collection of talent - looked vulnerable against the Giants. ... It will be interesting to see what sort of discipline is handed down to the Patriots for their spy tactics against the Jets (and likely other teams, including the Packers last season). For consistency's sake, Commissioner Roger Goddell needs to suspend Coach Bill Belichick and dock the team a high draft pick. I don't know that a fine does much good given the amount of money in the league these days.

Story of the week: The miraculous recovery of Buffalo tight end Kevin Everett, who suffered a spinal injury in the Bill's loss to the Broncos in Week 1. The prognosis has gone from Everett fighting for his life to likely being paralyzed to there being a good chance of him regaining most of his range of motion.

GAMES OF THE WEEK
San Diego (1-0) at New England (1-0): The Chargers' brutal early season schedule takes them to Boston, where the Patriots will be happy to play football after a week of talk about their video games. San Diego proved its defense is for real against the Bears, but the Patriots' attack is up a few levels. The secondary is the weak link of the Chargers' D, and the passing attack seems to be the biggest strength of the Pats' O. The keys: Can San Diego do something the Jets could not in Week 1 - rush QB Tom Brady, and can the Chargers control the clock with RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who was stopped in his tracks by the Bears defense?

Indianapolis (1-0) at Tennessee (1-0): It was Chris Brown, not Vince Young, who sank the Jaguars with a big game in Week 1. If the Titans knock off the other AFC South Superpower in back-to-back weeks, they will stamp themselves as a contender. One difference, they have to defend Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne this week, not David Garrard, Earnest Wilford and Matt Jones. The Colts have the teams speed on defense to spy on Young and limit the havoc he creates better than most teams.

GAMES OF THE WEAK:
Kansas City (0-1) at Chicago (0-1): First one to 10 wins.

Atlanta (0-1) at Jacksonville (0-1): Will a pass be completed - the correct team?

New Orleans (0-1) at Tampa Bay (0-1): Maybe the pirate ship in the end zone at Raymond James Stadium will hijack Drew Brees and Reggie Bush - that would give the Bucs a chance against a team that's mad and coming off a 10-day gap between games.

UPSET SPECIAL:
Dallas (1-0) at Miami (0-1): Miami hung tough with Washington on the road. Dallas raised some questions in its victory over the Giants. The Cowboys should win, but I think the Dolphins defense will have something to say about that and surprise.

Monday, September 03, 2007

2007 NFC Preview

A division-by-division look at the NFC, including playoff picks and projections of teams rising and falling.

EAST
1 - Dallas - I liked all of the Cowboys' offseason moves: Leonard Davis will be a force at guard, Ken Hamlin solidifies the secondary, and Coach Wade Phillips will reinvigorate an already very good defense with his array of schemes and blitz packages. The Cowboys have a rising quarterback, size and speed at receiver, an excellent tight end and two very solid running backs.
2 - Philadelphia - It all comes down to Donovan McNabb's health and the ability of the defense to stop the run. If those are positives, the Eagles can contend for the division title. If McNabb gets hurt again or the Eagles can't stop the run, they'll struggle to reach the postseason. RB Brian Westbrook is the most versatile back in the NFL.
3 - Washington - Like Dallas, this is another team with two very good running backs, a good tight end and a developing QB (Jason Campbell). I'm not crazy about the Redskins' front seven on defense or their receivers, but the talent is there for those areas to improve. The secondary could be dominant if its members play to their vast potentials. Washington has disappointed the past few seasons, so this might be a make or break year for it.
4 - New York Giants - The Giants will really miss retired RB Tiki Barber. Unless QB Eli Manning takes a big step forward in his development, this will be a very predictable offense, and the defenses in this division are good enough to take advantage of that. A team that appears unsettled under Coach Tom Coghlin might come apart at the seems by midseason.

NORTH
1. Chicago - The Bears appear to have a lot of questions after their Super Bowl appearance: Is Rex Grossman the answer at QB? Can RB Cedric Benson handle the load now that Thomas Jones is gone? Will all the coaching staff changes (five assistants left) affect the on-field play? Chicago still has more talent than any team in this division by a mile.
2. Green Bay - The Packers feature and up-and-coming defense and slowly are building some depth on the offensive line. QB Brett Favre is back, which will aid the development of the young and talented group of receivers. But the Pack has no one, literally, to run the ball, and that will be their undoing. Had they kept Ahman Green or acquired a suitable replacement, they'd be a playoff team.
3. Minnesota -The Vikings have an opportunistic defense, and one that is excellent vs. the run. Rookie RB Adrian Peterson looks like a franchise back, and he and Chester Taylor should complement one another well. They have the opposite problem that the Packers do, no QB and receivers with any significant experience.
4. Detroit - Will the Lions never learn? They again addressed their offense (drafting WR Calvin Johnson and trading for RB Tatum Bell) at the expense of their defense, which outside of DLs Shaun Rodgers and Cory Redding and LB Ernie Sims, will be awful.

SOUTH
1. New Orleans - The Saints, yes the Saints, are Super Bowl contenders if the middle of their defense improves. Adding TE Eric Johnson was brilliant and further diversifies the conference's top offense.
2. Carolina - The Panthers get this spot by default because I think the teams below them are horrible. Two years ago, Carolina looked like a budding dynasty, but now it appears to have a lot of holes. I'm not sure RBs DeShaun Foster or DeAngelo Williams are good fits for the offense, and beyond Steve Smith there is not much at WR. Both lines have had injury problems, and the defense - supposedly elite - could not pressure the QB or stop the run nearly as well as advertised last season.
3. Tampa Bay - Obtaining QB Jeff Garcia will help solidify that position for a season, but it can't mask that this is an aging team at several positions, and one almost completely void of playmakers. The defense will be OK, but the offense really needs to involve RB Carnell Williams more. It's a make-or-break season for Coach Jon Gruden, but this is a franchise that should go into rebuild mode.
4. Atlanta - I might have put the Falcons in this spot BEFORE all the Michael Vick revelations, but that cemented it. The all-around impact of that on a team that had a lot of holes and a new coach with very little NFL experience will be devastating. In terms of personnel, losing DE Patrick Kearney in free agency and trading QB Matt Schaub really hurt. Winning more than three games would be a miracle.

WEST
1. Seattle - The Seahawks have the best all-around talent in this division, a solid coaching staff, an enormous home-field edge and the experience of winning. If they stay healthy and some of their more recent acquisitions play to their potential (WR Deion Branch, DE Patrick Kearney, S Deon Grant), they will be formidable.
2. San Francisco - A fashionable pick as a division winner, the 49ers need three things to happen for that to become a reality: Alex Smith must continue to progress at QB (and do so despite his third coordinator in three seasons), RB Frank Gore must stay healthy (he was nicked in preseason and has a lengthy college injury history), and the Niners need some receivers to emerge (obtaining Darrell Jackson from Seattle was a start). The defense should be even better with the additions of CB Nate Clements, S Michael Lewis and rookie LB Patrick Willis.
3. St. Louis - If only the Rams had a better defense. Their offense will be diversified and explosive. Adding WR Drew Bennett and TE Randy McMichael will enhance their red-zone scoring capabilities. The secret to beating the Rams has been running the ball on them, and I see no reason for that to change. The defense is youthful, and thus could improve.
4. Arizona - See St. Louis. The Cardinals have a lot of talent on offense, but this is a team that is handicapped by its weak line play on both sides of the ball. The Cards also might have the weakest linebacking group in the league. They'll be fun to watch, but unless their line play improves dramatically, it will be more of the same.

Going up: Dallas, San Francisco

Going down: Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New York

Best division: East - Dallas and Philadelphia will be two of the better teams in the conference. If Washington plays up to its potential and stays healthy, it could be in the mix for a playoff spot as well.

Worst division: South - Beyond New Orleans, I don't see a playoff team. What I do see are the conference's two worst teams, hands down, in Tampa Bay and Atlanta.

Playoff teams: Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco

Conference champion: Dallas (over New Orleans)

Sunday, September 02, 2007

2007 AFC predictions

Here is how I see the AFC shaking out this season, division by division.

EAST
1. New England - DL Richard Seymour's injury hurts, but the Pats are loaded on offense, even if Randy Moss isn't what he once was. QB Tom Brady has better targets and RB Lawrence Maroney is primed for a huge year.
2. New York Jets - Acquiring RB Thomas Jones and drafting CB Derrelle Revis were brilliant moves. The Jets face a tough schedule, but they shored up two weaknesses and are not as far behind the Pats as you might think.
3. Buffalo - Huge losses through free agency and trades have hurt, but the Bills have drafted very well two years in a row and most of those picks will play big roles. If QB JP Losman trends upward again, the Bills may surprise.
4. Miami - It's tough for me to see a team with no offensive line, a disappointing running game and some questionable drafting do well, especially in this division. Obtaining QB Trent Green and LB Joey Porter helps, but the Dolphins should have started their rebuild job because they won't contend.

NORTH
1. Baltimore - An aging team, but a good one. Adding RB Willis McGahee adds versatility to the offense, but it all comes down to keeping QB Steve McNair healthy. If he is and the Ravens' receiving corps steps up, look out, because Baltimore has a championship caliber defense.
2. Cincinnati - The Carson Palmer-directed offense should pile up points. Two big questions marks, however, are can the defense stop anyone and what if RB Rudi Johnson, whose yards per carry dropped off some last season, gets injured.
3. Pittsburgh - I see more questions than answers with this team. How will the players respond to Coach Mike Tomlin after 15 years of Bill Cowher? How will the offense and defense overcome the losses of C Jeff Hartings and LB Joey Porter? Which Ben Roethlisberger will we see - the 2005 Super Bowl-winning version or the 2006 distracted, injured and out-of-sync model?
4. Cleveland - The Browns have upgraded their talent level, particularly on offense, where their line should be a lot better and Jamal Lewis will help the running game. If anyone can get the football to TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards, they might be on to something. Still, the defense has too many holes to fill, but the Browns are on the right track, finally.

SOUTH
1. Indianapolis - The Colts sustained a lot of losses on defense, but then it wasn't very good last year until the playoffs. The offense should hum, particularly with RB Joseph Addai gaining a year of experience and the addition of rookie WR Anthony Gonzalez. Losing LT Tarik Glenn (retirement) and DT Anthony McFarland (injury) will bring the Colts closer to the pack this season.
2. Jacksonville - Great defense, very good running game and no passing game. Yes, David Garrard is more mobile than Byron Leftwich, but he's not much more accurate and neither of them have had good options to throw to since Jimmy Smith retired. The Leftwich release signals to me the team better win now or some others, notably Coach Jack Del Rio, might be sent packing.
3. Houston - The Texans' young defense will improve, and Matt Schaub and Ahman Green are big upgrades at QB and RB, respectively.
4. Tennessee - Can QB Vince Young do it all by himself? Given the Titans' free-agent losses at RB and WR, he might have to. Still, as much as he runs with the ball, it's hard to imagine he won't get injured at some point, which would make the Titans one of the league's worst teams.

WEST
1. San Diego - The Chargers are loaded everywhere but receiver, and the thinking here is that Vincent Jackson and rookie Craig Davis change that. The defense should be dominant, and then there are a few guys named Tomlinson, Gates and Rivers playing behind a very solid line on offense. Still, the Bolts have to win a playoff game with this crew.
2. Denver - If QB Jay Cutler improves and RB Travis Henry gets healthy, the offense will be high-powered. Stopping the run will be the barometer of the defense, perhaps ultimately the team's success.
3. Kansas City - Another team that puzzles me. If you're a playoff team, which the Chiefs were last season, why give your starting quarterback away when you have no viable replacement? The Chiefs absorbed some big losses on the offensive line, and the secondary is slow.
4. Oakland - Puzzling doesn't even begin to describe this outfit. You know they have not signed the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, JaMarcus Russell, as of Labor Day. They did sign RB Dominic Rhodes, but he promptly was suspended for a substance-abuse violation. Adding QB Daunte Culpepper is a good short-term fix, and the defense again should be very good.

Surprises: Buffalo (it's probably a year too early), Cleveland
Look out below: Miami, Cincinnati (I could see the bottom fall out), Tennessee, Kansas City (I am not sold on the Chiefs)
Playoff teams: New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis, San Diego, Denver, New York Jets
Conference champ: San Diego over New England