Some random thoughts about Week 3 through Sunday night's game.
Was Super Bowl 43 a fluke? Of course that's an exaggeration, but both the Steelers and the Cardinals are 1-2 and looking nothing like postseason powerhouses.
Two weeks in a row the Steelers have had the tables turned on them after their dramatic Week 1 OT win. First the Bears marched down the field to beat the Steelers, then the Bengals did on Sunday.
Some commentators have pointed out that the Steelers' slide coincides with safety Troy Polamalu's injury, but Polamalu was hurt midway through the Week 1 game vs. the Titans and Pittsburgh managed to win that one.
Arizona has lost twice at home, including Sunday night's beatdown at the hands of the Colts, and nothing appears to be working for the Cardinals right now. Most alarming for Cards fans has to be Kurt Warner's statue-esque pocket poses. The veteran QB, who was unconscious in Week 2, absorbed numerous hits and sacks vs. the Colts' fleet front line. And against a banged-up Colts secondary This is a very bad sign for the birds heading into their bye week.
Road warriors: How good are the Colts? They come back to beat the Dolphins on Monday night in Miami - a game that saw the Dolphins win the time of possession battle by a 3-to-1 margin - then return to the road three time zones west and drill the Cardinals.
Turn back the clock: In an online column in another location (which I hopefully can reveal this week) I predicted this might be the week the Vikings needed Brett Favre to step up. Step up he did. Favre passed for more than 300 yards and threw a game-winning dart to Greg Lewis in the final seconds to lift Minnesota over San Francisco.
Remember the roar: December 2007. 21 months ago. Until Sunday, that was the most recent time the Lions had won a football game. Detroit held off a reeling Redskins team to win for the first time in 20 games. Much was made of it being the first career NFL victory for Matthew Stafford and Coach Jim Schwartz. But it's also the first NFL win for Detroit's second-year players, like running back Kevin Smith, who was a key to the Lions win.
2008 playoff teams in big trouble: In addition to the Steelers and Cardinals at 1-2, AFC division winners Miami and Tennessee are 0-3.
Fashion police: So whose idea was it to dress the Seahawks like those Popsicles that everyone leaves in the bottom of the box because they're not sure what flavor they are? Seattle's lime green jerseys are undoubtedly the worst NFL jersey I've ever seen in four decades of NFL watching.
TOP FIVE
1. NY Jets (3-0) They have smacked around New England and Tennessee (which won 24 games combined last season) in consecutive weeks
2. New Orleans (3-0) Won the second of back-to-back road games with defense and a ground game, which is a scary thought
3. Indianapolis (3-0) Who says Peyton Manning doesn't have enough weapons?
4. NY Giants (3-0) Dominating despite injuries
5. Baltimore (3-0) Feasting on cupcakes
Also receiving votes: Minnesota, Philadelphia, New England
BOTTOM FIVE
28. Washington (1-2) It could get ugly in the nation's capital after the Lions won for the first time in 20 games at the Redskins' expense
29. Kansas City (0-3) After a promising first game, the Chiefs have regressed more each week
30. St. Louis (0-3) Rams offense showed a pulse once Kyle Boller came in at QB
31. Tampa Bay (0-3) Five first downs - the entire game - vs. a banged-up Giants team
32. Cleveland (0-3) Point differential after three games? 66 points
Also receiving votes: Miami, Tennessee, Houston, Carolina (all of which I though could be playoff teams)
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Saturday, September 19, 2009
2009 NFL Week 2 preview
There weren't many surprises in Week 1 of the NFL season, but I expect there to be several this week. There are a number of enticing match-ups, including:
The intra-division clashes
The three of the past four seasons have featured either Pittsburgh or Chicago in the Super Bowl. The Bears are stinging from a road loss to the rival Packers, while the Steelers are stinging from a physical overtime win over the Titans on opening night. So this should be another black and blue game, right? Not necessarily. The Steelers had a 2-1 pass to run ratio (47-23) in their opener, while the Bears had 38 passes and 31 rushes. Which team will generate more pressure and have better coverage?
- Carolina at Atlanta
- New England at the NY Jets
- Oakland at Kansas City
- NY Giants at Dallas
- Seattle at San Francisco
- Indianapolis at Miami
- New Orleans at Philadelphia
- Baltimore at San Diego
- Pittsburgh at Chicago
The intra-division clashes
- Carolina at Atlanta - Was last week's meltdown at home vs.the Eagles a sign of things to come for the Panthers or a factor of five turnovers? The Falcons capitalized on four uncharacteristic Dolphins turnovers last week. Atlanta can establish itself as the South's front-runner with a win here, while a Panthers loss would raise more questions.
- New England at the NY Jets - Let the smack talk flow. The Jets made a strong opening statement at Houston last week, while the Patriots looked mortal vs. the Bills. New England's defense absorbed another hit when LB Jerod Mayo suffered a knee injury. Can the Jets slow the Patriots' passing attack? That's a key question, the answer to which will help determine the AFC East's early leader.
- Oakland at Kansas City - Two 0-1 teams? Important game? Yes. Both looked surprisingly good in Week 1 losses, and both could have pulled off upsets. (I think both will as the season progresses) How QBs JaMarcus Russell of the Raiders and Matt Cassell (making his Chiefs debut) play are key. One of these teams can keep itself in the AFC West conversation.
- NY Giants at Dallas - The House That Jerry Built opens, and the schedule makers didn't do Jones or his Cowboys any favors by bringing the Giants to town. I'm curious how the Cowboys offense will do against a much stiffer defense this week.
- Seattle at San Francisco - The 49ers might be for real. They took the Cardinals apart in Arizona, and the could do the same in their home opener. Tough to get a read on the Seahawks. They played good, but not great, against the Rams last week. Seattle needs to establish its ground game, something Arizona couldn't or wouldn't do.
- New Orleans at Philadelphia - Put Donovan McNabb under center for the Eagles, and I think they would win. However, he's out. Fortunately for Kevin Kolb, the Saints don't have much of a pass rush. Philly's defense played well vs. Carolina in forcing five turnovers, but the Saints have far more firepower than the Panthers. That's the matchup to watch.
- Baltimore at San Diego - I think these are two teams with a lot to prove. Baltimore's offense impressed vs. the Chiefs, but it's defense clearly was not itself and let the Chiefs stay in their game. The Chargers could have (and probably should have) lost at Oakland. The Bolts' offensive line and backfield are banged up.
- Indianapolis at Miami - The Dolphins committed a very uncharacteristic four turnovers in losing at Atlanta, while the Colts did what they needed to to beat the Jaguars at home. Neither were impressive. A Miami loss will put it two games back of either the Jets or Patriots. The Colts need someone not named Reggie Wayne to step up in the passing game.
The three of the past four seasons have featured either Pittsburgh or Chicago in the Super Bowl. The Bears are stinging from a road loss to the rival Packers, while the Steelers are stinging from a physical overtime win over the Titans on opening night. So this should be another black and blue game, right? Not necessarily. The Steelers had a 2-1 pass to run ratio (47-23) in their opener, while the Bears had 38 passes and 31 rushes. Which team will generate more pressure and have better coverage?
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Week 1 Rewind
First things first about Week 1 of the NFL season ...
We can speculate all we want to during the offseason, and the preseason for that matter, about how much better/worse/healthier/softer/etc. someone or some team appears. None of that matters until the games matter.
Case in point - many anointed Chicago and Green Bay as Super Bowl contenders after the Bears acquired quarterback Jay Cutler and the Packers steamrolled everyone in sight. What many conveniently forgot is Cutler threw 18 interceptions last season while throwing to a far more talented group of receivers than he has in Chicago. Meanwhile, we should have listened to Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt's comments after his team lost in the preseason to the Packers. The Cards coach said, in effect, that his defense hadn't game-planned for the Packers, who obviously had done just the opposite. So of course the Packers looked unstoppable.
Repeat, nothing matters until the games start to matter.
Week 1 surprise teams
The Good - The Raiders have a pulse! Oakland played physical defense and might have more talent on offense than some realize. Really liked rookie WR Louis Murphy. ... The Chiefs, while clearly less talented than the Ravens, could have won that game at Baltimore. It says here that Todd Haley had a lot more to do with Arizona's success last season than has been reported. ... The Jets started a rookie QB in Mark Sanchez and had two starters in their front seven suspended and they dominated the Texans in Houston. ... The Eagles overpowered the Panthers in every phase of the game. I had questions about the Philly defense after defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's passing, the free-agent exodus of safety Brian Dawkins and the season-ending injury to middle linebacker Stewart Bradley. I have a lot fewer questions now. ... The Bengals, boosted by a vastly improved defense, should have defeated the Broncos.
The Bad - The Panthers looked lost, aside from one sustained drive early in the game, in getting hammered by the Eagles. I think I will regret picking them to win the NFC South. ... The Chargers appear - again - as if they're only going to play as well as they think they need to. I suspect they're going to lose more games this season than they should if that is not corrected. ... The Dolphins, another team I liked going into this season, did exactly what they didn't do last season - commit turnovers and penalties by the bushel full. With a tougher schedule, Miami could take a huge step back if that isn't fixed. ... The Cardinals got the 49ers' best shot, and they couldn't recover. Losing a home opener to a division rival is damaging on several levels.
The good news? It's just one week of 17.
Top 5 Teams
1. Pittsburgh - Give Big Ben the ball and 2 minutes and you'll pay.
2. NY Giants - They won't be the most exciting team to watch, but they won't beat themselves either
3. Philadelphia - The Eagles made a statement, punking the defending NFC South champs on their home turf.
4. New England - All those new defenders have some things to learn.
5. Minnesota - The Vikings won one they should have and appear strong in all phases except kick coverage.
Bottom 5 Teams
32. St. Louis - It's going to be a long season under the Arch
31. Cleveland - Couldn't pass on the Vikings.
30. Detroit - The offense showed some signs of life, but the defense cannot defend the pass.
29. Houston - Thrashed at home
28. Carolina - Really thrashed at home
Key injuries
We can speculate all we want to during the offseason, and the preseason for that matter, about how much better/worse/healthier/softer/etc. someone or some team appears. None of that matters until the games matter.
Case in point - many anointed Chicago and Green Bay as Super Bowl contenders after the Bears acquired quarterback Jay Cutler and the Packers steamrolled everyone in sight. What many conveniently forgot is Cutler threw 18 interceptions last season while throwing to a far more talented group of receivers than he has in Chicago. Meanwhile, we should have listened to Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt's comments after his team lost in the preseason to the Packers. The Cards coach said, in effect, that his defense hadn't game-planned for the Packers, who obviously had done just the opposite. So of course the Packers looked unstoppable.
Repeat, nothing matters until the games start to matter.
Week 1 surprise teams
The Good - The Raiders have a pulse! Oakland played physical defense and might have more talent on offense than some realize. Really liked rookie WR Louis Murphy. ... The Chiefs, while clearly less talented than the Ravens, could have won that game at Baltimore. It says here that Todd Haley had a lot more to do with Arizona's success last season than has been reported. ... The Jets started a rookie QB in Mark Sanchez and had two starters in their front seven suspended and they dominated the Texans in Houston. ... The Eagles overpowered the Panthers in every phase of the game. I had questions about the Philly defense after defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's passing, the free-agent exodus of safety Brian Dawkins and the season-ending injury to middle linebacker Stewart Bradley. I have a lot fewer questions now. ... The Bengals, boosted by a vastly improved defense, should have defeated the Broncos.
The Bad - The Panthers looked lost, aside from one sustained drive early in the game, in getting hammered by the Eagles. I think I will regret picking them to win the NFC South. ... The Chargers appear - again - as if they're only going to play as well as they think they need to. I suspect they're going to lose more games this season than they should if that is not corrected. ... The Dolphins, another team I liked going into this season, did exactly what they didn't do last season - commit turnovers and penalties by the bushel full. With a tougher schedule, Miami could take a huge step back if that isn't fixed. ... The Cardinals got the 49ers' best shot, and they couldn't recover. Losing a home opener to a division rival is damaging on several levels.
The good news? It's just one week of 17.
Top 5 Teams
1. Pittsburgh - Give Big Ben the ball and 2 minutes and you'll pay.
2. NY Giants - They won't be the most exciting team to watch, but they won't beat themselves either
3. Philadelphia - The Eagles made a statement, punking the defending NFC South champs on their home turf.
4. New England - All those new defenders have some things to learn.
5. Minnesota - The Vikings won one they should have and appear strong in all phases except kick coverage.
Bottom 5 Teams
32. St. Louis - It's going to be a long season under the Arch
31. Cleveland - Couldn't pass on the Vikings.
30. Detroit - The offense showed some signs of life, but the defense cannot defend the pass.
29. Houston - Thrashed at home
28. Carolina - Really thrashed at home
Key injuries
- Eagles QB Donovan McNabb - Not only does this hurt the team's continuity, but think what it does to the discussion about Michael Vick's role.
- Bears LB Brian Urlacher - A huge loss for a defense that had some teeth.
- Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson - I might regret writing this, but I think he's only the team's second-best back at this point.
- Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez - Indy already appeared thin at this position.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
NFL Week 1 Preview
OK, so this one is a bit late.
One trend to look for in the early weeks of the season, particularly Week 1, is a lot of high scores and unexpected heroes. Happens every year. Someone, some team will emerge and make the football-viewing world take notice.
We can only hope a majority of Sunday's and Monday's games are as compelling as Thursday night's Steelers victory over the Titans was.
TRIVIA TIME: You probably know Brett Fave surpassed Dan Marino as touchdown pass king two seasons ago. Whom did Marino pass on the NFL career TD pass list? (Answer below, and extra credit if you can name the two teams he played for)
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Philadelphia at Carolina - Two NFC playoff teams who harbor designs on deep postseason runs again. Can the Eagles' defense contain the Panthers' ground attack? Will Carolina have an answer for Donovan McNab and Brian Westbrook?
Miami at Atlanta - Two more playoff teams meet in an intriguing inter-conference matchup. The Dolphins win with defense, while the Falcons' formula leans heavily on a potent offense behind RB Michael Turner and QB Matt Ryan.
Chicago at Green Bay - The Bears' acquisition of QB Jay Cutler and the development of the Packers' young players - especially on offense - have these two teams solidly in the NFC North title discussion. The NFL's oldest rivalry is a clear statement game.
GAMES OF THE WEAK:
What were the league's schedule-makers thinking? Both Monday night games could be blowouts by halftime. Expect San Diego to run wild at Oakland after New England lights up Buffalo. ... St. Louis at Seattle also has the makings of a clunker.
TRIVIA ANSWER: Fran Tarkenton (formerly of the NY Giants and Minnesota Vikings)
Welcome back NFL!
One trend to look for in the early weeks of the season, particularly Week 1, is a lot of high scores and unexpected heroes. Happens every year. Someone, some team will emerge and make the football-viewing world take notice.
We can only hope a majority of Sunday's and Monday's games are as compelling as Thursday night's Steelers victory over the Titans was.
TRIVIA TIME: You probably know Brett Fave surpassed Dan Marino as touchdown pass king two seasons ago. Whom did Marino pass on the NFL career TD pass list? (Answer below, and extra credit if you can name the two teams he played for)
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Philadelphia at Carolina - Two NFC playoff teams who harbor designs on deep postseason runs again. Can the Eagles' defense contain the Panthers' ground attack? Will Carolina have an answer for Donovan McNab and Brian Westbrook?
Miami at Atlanta - Two more playoff teams meet in an intriguing inter-conference matchup. The Dolphins win with defense, while the Falcons' formula leans heavily on a potent offense behind RB Michael Turner and QB Matt Ryan.
Chicago at Green Bay - The Bears' acquisition of QB Jay Cutler and the development of the Packers' young players - especially on offense - have these two teams solidly in the NFC North title discussion. The NFL's oldest rivalry is a clear statement game.
GAMES OF THE WEAK:
What were the league's schedule-makers thinking? Both Monday night games could be blowouts by halftime. Expect San Diego to run wild at Oakland after New England lights up Buffalo. ... St. Louis at Seattle also has the makings of a clunker.
TRIVIA ANSWER: Fran Tarkenton (formerly of the NY Giants and Minnesota Vikings)
Welcome back NFL!
AFC 2009 Predictions
The AFC has morphed into the NFL's dominant conference this decade, and it features several strong Super Bowl contenders again this season - not the least of which are defending champion Pittsburgh and New England, which eagerly welcomes back quarterback Tom Brady.
Here is a look at each of the AFC's four divisions (*denotes playoff team)
EAST
Predicted order of finish: New England*, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo
Fast fact: Miami LB Jason Taylor needs eight sacks to move into the top 10 all-time in league history
The king: Much has been made of the return of Brady from a knee injury, but a bigger storyline in New England could be the extreme makeover of the defense. DE Richard Seymour, LBs Mike Vrabel, Rosevelt Colvin, Junior Seau and Teddy Bruschi, S Rodney Harrison and CB Ellis Hobbs all are gone. One guess is Coach Bill Belichick ultimately realized his defense needed to get faster (and younger). Remember, too, that the Pats have more high draft choices over the next two seasons than anyone as a result of trades of Seymour, Hobbs, Vrabel and QB Matt Cassell. The Brady-led passing game should be as potent as ever with the addition of WR Joey Galloway and RB Fred Taylor - two veterans itching for a Super Bowl ring.
The others: It says here Miami's rise from worst to first in the East was no fluke. The Dolphins were in the top 15 in the league in both defense and offense. The Chad Pennington-led offense was surprisingly balanced. And RB Ronnie Brown experienced a rebirth, thanks in part to the Wildcat formation. If the pass defense improves, the Dolphins could again hang with the conference's elite. ... The Jets have the potential to be a very good team, but they need a lot of things to come together - one more season from RB Thomas Jones, a quick integration of rookie QB Mark Sanchez into the offense, a receiver to step up, and the defense to take to new coach Rex Ryan's aggressive scheme. The latter shouldn't be a problem, but New York might have some problems scoring points unless some playmakers emerge. ... So the Bills added WR Terrell Owens, fired their offensive coordinator for being too creative in his play calling and completely rebuilt their offensive line, again. Oh, and their best offensive player - RB Marshawn Lynch - is suspended for the first three games. This doesn't sound like a winning formula.
NORTH
Predicted order of finish: Pittsburgh*, Baltimore*, Cincinnati, Cleveland
Fast fact: No team can match the Steelers' six Super Bowl victories.
The king: Pittsburgh can play it any way you want it thanks to a punishing defense, an underrated passing attack, a variety of running backs and a quarterback who appears to be a supersized version of John Elway. Ben Roethlisberger might not always put up the best numbers, but his flair for winning games in the final minutes certainly reminds me of the former Broncos great. The Steelers return largely intact, and it bears remembering that they had to overcome several key injuries last season, so they might be stronger this go around.
The others: I don't see a sophomore slump for Ravens QB Joe Flacco, and I do see a group of running backs that have pushed each other to be better. Much like the Jets, the Ravens need a young receiver to emerge to make Flacco's life a bit easier. The defense again should be stout, although losing coordinator Rex Ryan and LB Bart Scott to the Jets will hurt. The departure of stud offensive lineman Jason Brown didn't get as much attention but is equally important to Flacco and the offense. ... Cincinnati is mentioned as a darkhorse team by many prognosticators, and there are several reasons for this optimism. First, the return of QB Carson Palmer provides a massive upgrade at that position for an offense that ranked 32nd overall in 2008. Second, the defense continues to add players with plenty of upside through the draft (see LB Rey Maualuga). Third, Laveranues Coles isn't as big of a dropoff at WR from TJ Houshmandzadeh. The Bengals will have to run the ball A LOT better to sniff the playoffs. ... So who is the Browns' quarterback? Who will run the ball for Cleveland? Who will stop the run? The Browns' near-playoff berth two seasons ago looks more and more like a fluke. A return to form by WR Braylon Edwards would help the 31st-ranked passing offense, regardless of whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson is throwing to him.
SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Tennessee*, Houston*, Indianapolis, Jacksonville
Fast fact: Colts QB Peyton Manning is fourth all-time in TD passes and needs just 10 more to take over third - behind only Dan Marino and Brett Favre.
The king: The Titans won't catch anyone by surprise this season. Despite the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency, Tennessee's 7th-ranked defense should not fall off much. The ground game is in good hands with RBs Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Tennessee really needs rookie WR Kenny Britt to develops into a No. 1 receiver.
The others: Two consecutive 8-8 seasons and a steady influx of talent have me convinced this is the year for the Texans to finally make the playoffs. The key is keeping QB Matt Schaub healthy. Schaub, who has missed an average of five games the past two seasons, has plenty of targets - WRs Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels and RB Steve Slaton. But Schaub doesn't have a quality backup like Sage Rosenfels this season. Houston has an excellent defensive front and a Pro Bowl middle linebacker in DeMeco Ryans. However, the rest of the back half of the defense could be the team's undoing. ... How will the Colts respond to not having Tony Dungy on the sideline and Marvin Harrison split out on offense? The former, as well as some other coaching staff turnover, is a greater concern at this point. It's tough to bet against QB Peyton Manning, but the Colts' ground game and play vs. the run both were near the bottom of the NFL last season. That is not a formula for reaching the playoffs in 2009. ... The Jaguars aren't particularly awful in any phase of the game, but neither are they outstanding, and that won't get you far in the NFL. A lot is riding on QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew. The defense lacks impact players at this point.
WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Diego*, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City
Fast fact: Another 1,000-yard season for Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson will catapult him to seventh all-time on the NFL career rushing list.
The king: The aforementioned LT is healthy, and so is rush LB Shawn Merriman. The Chargers clearly are the class of a week division, and their offense - behind QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates and RBs Tomlinson and Darren Sproles - should be one of the league's best. Merriman's presence and pass rush makes the entire defense more effective. The evidence? The Chargers' sack total dropped from 42 to 28 and interceptions went from 22 to 8 last season.
The others: The season can't start soon enough for Denver, which improved its chances for having a better ground game by signing LaMont Jordan and Correll Buckhalter and drafting Knowshawn Moreno. That's offset by dealing QB Jay Cutler. The defense ranked in the bottom eight against both the rush and the pass, so there is work to be done. ... The Raiders followed up one of the more baffling drafts in recent memory by cutting the QB (Jeff Garcia) who clearly gave them the best chance to win. JaMarcus Russell would have to make huge strides for Oakland to be competitive. On defense, the Raiders have to improve the NFL's second-worst run defense. ... Two seasons in a row the Chiefs have traded an impact player. Last season it was DE Jared Allen. This past offseason it was TE Tony Gonzalez. The result has been a bunch of extra draft picks and QB Matt Cassell. Kansas City will be very young at most positions.
Here is a look at each of the AFC's four divisions (*denotes playoff team)
EAST
Predicted order of finish: New England*, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo
Fast fact: Miami LB Jason Taylor needs eight sacks to move into the top 10 all-time in league history
The king: Much has been made of the return of Brady from a knee injury, but a bigger storyline in New England could be the extreme makeover of the defense. DE Richard Seymour, LBs Mike Vrabel, Rosevelt Colvin, Junior Seau and Teddy Bruschi, S Rodney Harrison and CB Ellis Hobbs all are gone. One guess is Coach Bill Belichick ultimately realized his defense needed to get faster (and younger). Remember, too, that the Pats have more high draft choices over the next two seasons than anyone as a result of trades of Seymour, Hobbs, Vrabel and QB Matt Cassell. The Brady-led passing game should be as potent as ever with the addition of WR Joey Galloway and RB Fred Taylor - two veterans itching for a Super Bowl ring.
The others: It says here Miami's rise from worst to first in the East was no fluke. The Dolphins were in the top 15 in the league in both defense and offense. The Chad Pennington-led offense was surprisingly balanced. And RB Ronnie Brown experienced a rebirth, thanks in part to the Wildcat formation. If the pass defense improves, the Dolphins could again hang with the conference's elite. ... The Jets have the potential to be a very good team, but they need a lot of things to come together - one more season from RB Thomas Jones, a quick integration of rookie QB Mark Sanchez into the offense, a receiver to step up, and the defense to take to new coach Rex Ryan's aggressive scheme. The latter shouldn't be a problem, but New York might have some problems scoring points unless some playmakers emerge. ... So the Bills added WR Terrell Owens, fired their offensive coordinator for being too creative in his play calling and completely rebuilt their offensive line, again. Oh, and their best offensive player - RB Marshawn Lynch - is suspended for the first three games. This doesn't sound like a winning formula.
NORTH
Predicted order of finish: Pittsburgh*, Baltimore*, Cincinnati, Cleveland
Fast fact: No team can match the Steelers' six Super Bowl victories.
The king: Pittsburgh can play it any way you want it thanks to a punishing defense, an underrated passing attack, a variety of running backs and a quarterback who appears to be a supersized version of John Elway. Ben Roethlisberger might not always put up the best numbers, but his flair for winning games in the final minutes certainly reminds me of the former Broncos great. The Steelers return largely intact, and it bears remembering that they had to overcome several key injuries last season, so they might be stronger this go around.
The others: I don't see a sophomore slump for Ravens QB Joe Flacco, and I do see a group of running backs that have pushed each other to be better. Much like the Jets, the Ravens need a young receiver to emerge to make Flacco's life a bit easier. The defense again should be stout, although losing coordinator Rex Ryan and LB Bart Scott to the Jets will hurt. The departure of stud offensive lineman Jason Brown didn't get as much attention but is equally important to Flacco and the offense. ... Cincinnati is mentioned as a darkhorse team by many prognosticators, and there are several reasons for this optimism. First, the return of QB Carson Palmer provides a massive upgrade at that position for an offense that ranked 32nd overall in 2008. Second, the defense continues to add players with plenty of upside through the draft (see LB Rey Maualuga). Third, Laveranues Coles isn't as big of a dropoff at WR from TJ Houshmandzadeh. The Bengals will have to run the ball A LOT better to sniff the playoffs. ... So who is the Browns' quarterback? Who will run the ball for Cleveland? Who will stop the run? The Browns' near-playoff berth two seasons ago looks more and more like a fluke. A return to form by WR Braylon Edwards would help the 31st-ranked passing offense, regardless of whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson is throwing to him.
SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Tennessee*, Houston*, Indianapolis, Jacksonville
Fast fact: Colts QB Peyton Manning is fourth all-time in TD passes and needs just 10 more to take over third - behind only Dan Marino and Brett Favre.
The king: The Titans won't catch anyone by surprise this season. Despite the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency, Tennessee's 7th-ranked defense should not fall off much. The ground game is in good hands with RBs Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Tennessee really needs rookie WR Kenny Britt to develops into a No. 1 receiver.
The others: Two consecutive 8-8 seasons and a steady influx of talent have me convinced this is the year for the Texans to finally make the playoffs. The key is keeping QB Matt Schaub healthy. Schaub, who has missed an average of five games the past two seasons, has plenty of targets - WRs Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels and RB Steve Slaton. But Schaub doesn't have a quality backup like Sage Rosenfels this season. Houston has an excellent defensive front and a Pro Bowl middle linebacker in DeMeco Ryans. However, the rest of the back half of the defense could be the team's undoing. ... How will the Colts respond to not having Tony Dungy on the sideline and Marvin Harrison split out on offense? The former, as well as some other coaching staff turnover, is a greater concern at this point. It's tough to bet against QB Peyton Manning, but the Colts' ground game and play vs. the run both were near the bottom of the NFL last season. That is not a formula for reaching the playoffs in 2009. ... The Jaguars aren't particularly awful in any phase of the game, but neither are they outstanding, and that won't get you far in the NFL. A lot is riding on QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew. The defense lacks impact players at this point.
WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Diego*, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City
Fast fact: Another 1,000-yard season for Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson will catapult him to seventh all-time on the NFL career rushing list.
The king: The aforementioned LT is healthy, and so is rush LB Shawn Merriman. The Chargers clearly are the class of a week division, and their offense - behind QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates and RBs Tomlinson and Darren Sproles - should be one of the league's best. Merriman's presence and pass rush makes the entire defense more effective. The evidence? The Chargers' sack total dropped from 42 to 28 and interceptions went from 22 to 8 last season.
The others: The season can't start soon enough for Denver, which improved its chances for having a better ground game by signing LaMont Jordan and Correll Buckhalter and drafting Knowshawn Moreno. That's offset by dealing QB Jay Cutler. The defense ranked in the bottom eight against both the rush and the pass, so there is work to be done. ... The Raiders followed up one of the more baffling drafts in recent memory by cutting the QB (Jeff Garcia) who clearly gave them the best chance to win. JaMarcus Russell would have to make huge strides for Oakland to be competitive. On defense, the Raiders have to improve the NFL's second-worst run defense. ... Two seasons in a row the Chiefs have traded an impact player. Last season it was DE Jared Allen. This past offseason it was TE Tony Gonzalez. The result has been a bunch of extra draft picks and QB Matt Cassell. Kansas City will be very young at most positions.
Monday, September 07, 2009
NFC 2009 Predictions
Forgive the NFC if it has a bit of an inferiority complex this decade. Since the St. Louis Rams won the Super Bowl in 2000, the AFC has captured seven of the next nine contested this decade, including three by the New England Patriots and two by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Could this be the season the NFC begins to turn the tide? There is plenty of reason for optimism in some corners of the conference, which should feature three very strong divisions this fall.
Here is a look at each of the NFC's four divisions (*indicates playoff team):
EAST
Predicted order of finish: *NY Giants, *Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington
Fast fact: America's Team has not won a playoff game in the 21st Century
The king: The Giants simply are the toughest team in a very tough division. Outside of wide receiver, they are above average at every other position group, and terrific on the lines.
The others: There are significant ones for each of the other three teams. Philadelphia retooled its offensive line, but how well will it gel? Does having QB Michael Vick on the roster help or upset Donovan McNabb? Who replaces rising star MLB Stewart Bradley, who will miss the season due to injury? If the Eagles can answer these questions in the positive, they have the talent to go the distance. ... Dallas figures to have a good to very good defense, but it needs QB Tony Romo and RB Marion Barber to be more productive down the stretch. Romo's trend has been to play well when the games don't count as much then fade in December. How will he fare without Terrell Owens? Barber's numbers have declined the past two seasons significantly. RB Felix Jones' return from injury will help. ... Washington has a lot of holes, particularly on the offensive line and in the secondary. The former is very problematic in this division. One has to wonder how QB Jason Campbell, who is not under contract for 2010, will respond in light of the team's pursuit of Jay Cutler then Mark Sanchez in the offseason.
Bottom line: The Eagles proved last season they can beat the Giants, and given that they are more talented this season, it would not surprise to see them win the East.
NORTH
Predicted order of finish: *Minnesota, *Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit
Fast fact: The Packers' Aaron Rodgers is the only returning starting quarterback in the division
The king: Minnesota will run the ball and stop the run, as it always does. Can Brett Favre make a difference at QB? He might just enough to hold off his former team, but unless Favre has improved targets to throw to, it's hard to see the Vikings going all the way. One thing to watch will be team chemistry.
The others: Green Bay's offense should score almost at will if RB Ryan Grant plays more like the 2007 version than the 2008 one. Early returns on the Packers' new 3-4 defense are positive, and many personnel people have said it's only a question of how the d-line holds up because Green Bay has the athletes in its back eight. ... Chicago's defense has underachieved since its Super Bowl run three seasons ago, and it might be time to admit it's getting old in some places. Aside from LB Lance Briggs, the play of the Bears' other elite defenders (DT Tommie Harris, LB Brian Urlacher, CBs Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman) has slipped due to age, injury or indifference. QB Jay Cutler will make everyone, especially RB Matt Forte and TEs Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen, better. ... Detroit has begun (again) a long rebuilding process. The Lions did a decent job drafting and in free agency, but they still have many holes along their lines. WR Calvin Johnson and RB Kevin Smith are legit, and if either Matthew Stafford and Daunte Culpepper works out at QB, Detroit could be entertaining if not victorious from time to time.
Bottom line: Minnesota's defense is the best in the division, and that's why the Vikings will win it by a game over the Packers, who will be a dangerous team.
SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Carolina*, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
Fast fact: The Panthers will try to become the first team to repeat as division champ since the NFL realigned to eight four-team divisions
The king: Is Carolina as good as it appeared at times last season (very) or as awful as it looked in losing to Arizona in the playoffs when Jake Delhomme seemingly completed more passes to the Cardinals than the Panthers. I think it's the former. If Delhomme bounces back, he has an elite receiver in Steve Smith to throw to and an elite running back in DeAngelo Williams to hand off to. The o-line is very good, and the back seven on defense also are very good. The only question is can the defensive line (read Julius Peppers) generate more pressure this season?
The others: The Saints are a trendy pick to win the South, and their Drew Brees-led offense provides plenty of ammunition for that assertion. However, their defense still isn't championship quality, and for all of the recognition new coordinator Gregg Williams has heaped on him, he brings a complex scheme. That and the host of new parts will take some time to adjust to. ... The Falcons were a surprise last season, but I wonder how they will respond now that teams have a year's worth of film on QB Matt Ryan. Obtaining TE Tony Gonzalez was genius, but the defense still has a lot of holes. A very similar situation as New Orleans. ... Tampa Bay changed coaches and waved good-bye to a lot of veterans. However, the Bucs have quite a bit of talent on offense, and if their QB situation is settled, they could surprise those who don't expect much. Losing defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and cutting LB Derrick Brooks won't help the defense.
Bottom line: Any team could win this division, including Tampa Bay, but Carolina has the fewest holes.
WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Francisco*, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
The king: Staying with the tough teams win theory, the 49ers have a clear advantage in that department, from coach Mike Singletary on down. San Francisco has an excellent 1-2 punch in RBs Frank Gore and Glen Coffee, and an underrated QB in Shaun Hill. The defense has talent, especially LB Patrick Willis and CB Nate Clements. If the high draft picks in the front seven play up to their capabilities, the 49ers will be much tougher than expected.
The others: Was Arizona's Super Bowl run a fluke? Maybe not. The Cardinals have a lot of talent and QB Kurt Warner and WR Larry Fitzgerald were unstoppable in the playoffs. Arizona has more issues on offense than you might think, namely can it run the ball, can Warner stay healthy and can WR Anquan Boldin stay happy? The defense has some studs in DT Darnell Dockett, LB Carlos Dansby, CB D-R Cromartie and S Adrian Wilson. But they also were in the lower third of the league in pass defense and only average vs. the run. ... Seattle is a team on the decline, with an aging offense, and a defense that took some steps back last season, both individually and collectively. The Seahawks were racked by injuries in 2008, and the thinking goes that can't possibly happen again. But part of that is a product of wear and tear on the veterans. The odd coach-in-waiting scenario also didn't help. Have the Seahawks improved the 5-6 wins it will take to win the division? I don't think they have. ... St. Louis should have a harder edge to it this season, but the Rams, who have some talented individuals, don't have enough across the board talent to contend yet.
Bottom line: San Francisco is the pick because this is a division where the power game should work especially well. However, Arizona could win the division again. But really, that's not saying a lot.
Could this be the season the NFC begins to turn the tide? There is plenty of reason for optimism in some corners of the conference, which should feature three very strong divisions this fall.
Here is a look at each of the NFC's four divisions (*indicates playoff team):
EAST
Predicted order of finish: *NY Giants, *Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington
Fast fact: America's Team has not won a playoff game in the 21st Century
The king: The Giants simply are the toughest team in a very tough division. Outside of wide receiver, they are above average at every other position group, and terrific on the lines.
The others: There are significant ones for each of the other three teams. Philadelphia retooled its offensive line, but how well will it gel? Does having QB Michael Vick on the roster help or upset Donovan McNabb? Who replaces rising star MLB Stewart Bradley, who will miss the season due to injury? If the Eagles can answer these questions in the positive, they have the talent to go the distance. ... Dallas figures to have a good to very good defense, but it needs QB Tony Romo and RB Marion Barber to be more productive down the stretch. Romo's trend has been to play well when the games don't count as much then fade in December. How will he fare without Terrell Owens? Barber's numbers have declined the past two seasons significantly. RB Felix Jones' return from injury will help. ... Washington has a lot of holes, particularly on the offensive line and in the secondary. The former is very problematic in this division. One has to wonder how QB Jason Campbell, who is not under contract for 2010, will respond in light of the team's pursuit of Jay Cutler then Mark Sanchez in the offseason.
Bottom line: The Eagles proved last season they can beat the Giants, and given that they are more talented this season, it would not surprise to see them win the East.
NORTH
Predicted order of finish: *Minnesota, *Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit
Fast fact: The Packers' Aaron Rodgers is the only returning starting quarterback in the division
The king: Minnesota will run the ball and stop the run, as it always does. Can Brett Favre make a difference at QB? He might just enough to hold off his former team, but unless Favre has improved targets to throw to, it's hard to see the Vikings going all the way. One thing to watch will be team chemistry.
The others: Green Bay's offense should score almost at will if RB Ryan Grant plays more like the 2007 version than the 2008 one. Early returns on the Packers' new 3-4 defense are positive, and many personnel people have said it's only a question of how the d-line holds up because Green Bay has the athletes in its back eight. ... Chicago's defense has underachieved since its Super Bowl run three seasons ago, and it might be time to admit it's getting old in some places. Aside from LB Lance Briggs, the play of the Bears' other elite defenders (DT Tommie Harris, LB Brian Urlacher, CBs Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman) has slipped due to age, injury or indifference. QB Jay Cutler will make everyone, especially RB Matt Forte and TEs Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen, better. ... Detroit has begun (again) a long rebuilding process. The Lions did a decent job drafting and in free agency, but they still have many holes along their lines. WR Calvin Johnson and RB Kevin Smith are legit, and if either Matthew Stafford and Daunte Culpepper works out at QB, Detroit could be entertaining if not victorious from time to time.
Bottom line: Minnesota's defense is the best in the division, and that's why the Vikings will win it by a game over the Packers, who will be a dangerous team.
SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Carolina*, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
Fast fact: The Panthers will try to become the first team to repeat as division champ since the NFL realigned to eight four-team divisions
The king: Is Carolina as good as it appeared at times last season (very) or as awful as it looked in losing to Arizona in the playoffs when Jake Delhomme seemingly completed more passes to the Cardinals than the Panthers. I think it's the former. If Delhomme bounces back, he has an elite receiver in Steve Smith to throw to and an elite running back in DeAngelo Williams to hand off to. The o-line is very good, and the back seven on defense also are very good. The only question is can the defensive line (read Julius Peppers) generate more pressure this season?
The others: The Saints are a trendy pick to win the South, and their Drew Brees-led offense provides plenty of ammunition for that assertion. However, their defense still isn't championship quality, and for all of the recognition new coordinator Gregg Williams has heaped on him, he brings a complex scheme. That and the host of new parts will take some time to adjust to. ... The Falcons were a surprise last season, but I wonder how they will respond now that teams have a year's worth of film on QB Matt Ryan. Obtaining TE Tony Gonzalez was genius, but the defense still has a lot of holes. A very similar situation as New Orleans. ... Tampa Bay changed coaches and waved good-bye to a lot of veterans. However, the Bucs have quite a bit of talent on offense, and if their QB situation is settled, they could surprise those who don't expect much. Losing defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and cutting LB Derrick Brooks won't help the defense.
Bottom line: Any team could win this division, including Tampa Bay, but Carolina has the fewest holes.
WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Francisco*, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
The king: Staying with the tough teams win theory, the 49ers have a clear advantage in that department, from coach Mike Singletary on down. San Francisco has an excellent 1-2 punch in RBs Frank Gore and Glen Coffee, and an underrated QB in Shaun Hill. The defense has talent, especially LB Patrick Willis and CB Nate Clements. If the high draft picks in the front seven play up to their capabilities, the 49ers will be much tougher than expected.
The others: Was Arizona's Super Bowl run a fluke? Maybe not. The Cardinals have a lot of talent and QB Kurt Warner and WR Larry Fitzgerald were unstoppable in the playoffs. Arizona has more issues on offense than you might think, namely can it run the ball, can Warner stay healthy and can WR Anquan Boldin stay happy? The defense has some studs in DT Darnell Dockett, LB Carlos Dansby, CB D-R Cromartie and S Adrian Wilson. But they also were in the lower third of the league in pass defense and only average vs. the run. ... Seattle is a team on the decline, with an aging offense, and a defense that took some steps back last season, both individually and collectively. The Seahawks were racked by injuries in 2008, and the thinking goes that can't possibly happen again. But part of that is a product of wear and tear on the veterans. The odd coach-in-waiting scenario also didn't help. Have the Seahawks improved the 5-6 wins it will take to win the division? I don't think they have. ... St. Louis should have a harder edge to it this season, but the Rams, who have some talented individuals, don't have enough across the board talent to contend yet.
Bottom line: San Francisco is the pick because this is a division where the power game should work especially well. However, Arizona could win the division again. But really, that's not saying a lot.
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