Saturday, January 22, 2011

2010 NFL season: How were our AFC predictions?

Each fall I predict the outcomes of each NFL division. Previously, I posted on my picks for the NFC's four divisions compared to those in three major NFL annuals - Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News and Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo.

What follows are the outcomes of the AFC predictions:

AFC East
Actual: New England, NY Jets, Miami, Buffalo
Bayee: NY Jets, New England, Miami Buffalo
SI: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
TSN: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
PFW: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
The winner is: No one and everyone. The Jets ultimately knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs, but nobody expected a 14-2 Pats regular season.

AFC North
Actual: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati
Bayee: Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
SI: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland
TSN: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland
PFW: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland
The winner is: SI, which also predicted the Steelers will win the Super Bowl.  At least the other publications had the sense to pick a playoff team - the Ravens - in first. Not me. I fell for the Bengals. In a season of bad predictions, that was my worst.

AFC South
Actual: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee
Bayee: Houston, Indy, Tennessee, Jacksonville
SI: Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville
TSN: Indy, Tennessee, Houston, Jacksonville
PFW: Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville
The winner is: All three publications got the Colts right, and everyone was wrong on the Jaguars. I take small consolation in having Tennessee third.

AFC West
Actual: Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland, Denver
Bayee: San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
SI: San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Kansas City
TSN: San Diego, Kansas City, Oakland, Broncos
PFW: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
The winner is: No one. TSN at least had the Chiefs second, while SI picked them last. PFW had Denver second. Obviously the Chargers were heavy favorites.

Biggest surprises: Kansas City and Jacksonville
Biggest disappointments: San Diego, Houston and Cincinnati

One interesting note - each of the three NFC disappointments (San Francisco, Dallas and Minnesota) changed coaches during the season. Not only did the three AFC disappointments keep their coaches all season, they kept them for next season (though Houston overhauled its defensive staff).

2010 NFL season: How were our NFC predictions?

Some of the more fun posts to write each season are the looks back at how several major publications as well as myself fared in our preseason picks.

My three for comparison's sake are Sports Illustrated, Sporting News' annual (which incorporated Street and Smith's a few years back) and Pro Football Weekly, which has teamed with Yahoo Sports!

NFC East
Actual order: Philadelphia, NY Giants, Dallas Washington
Bayee: NYG, Dallas, Philly, Wash.
SI: NYG, Dallas, Philly, Wash.
TSN: Dallas, NYG, Philly, Wash.
PFW: Dallas, NYG, Wash., Philly
The winner is: No one. No one saw Philly (or Michael Vick) emerging, nor Dallas imploding under coach Wade Phillips. Washington (bad) and the Giants (decent) were about what was expected.

NFC North
Actual order: Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota
Bayee: Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago
SI: Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit
TSN: Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit
PFW: Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit
The winner is: No one. No one picked the Bears higher than third (I had them fourth, but I did see the Lions improving more than others). No one saw the Vikings' meltdown coming either. And no one could have imagined the nightmare season Brett Favre (and those close to him) endured.

NFC South
Actual: Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina
Bayee: New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay
SI: New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
TSN: Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay
PFW: Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay
The winner is: TSN and PFW came closest here, nailing the first- and second-place teams. NO ONE saw the Bucs' dramatic improvement coming. And I'm sure SI would like its pick of the Panthers (whom the magazine projected would make the playoffs) back.

NFC West
Actual: Seattle, St. Louis, San Francisco, Arizona
Bayee: San Fran, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
SI: San Fran, Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis

TSN: San Fran, Arizona, St. Louis, Seattle
PFW: San Fran, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
The winner is: Well, someone had to win this division. This division's imploding team was the 49ers, closely followed by the Cardinals. SI tabbed the Seahawks second, and no one saw the Rams as anything but a cellar dweller (or close).

Biggest surprise team: Bears
Biggest disappointment: Take your pick - Cowboys, Vikings or 49ers