The BAYEE Watch

2010 NFL season: How were our AFC predictions?

2011-01-22T15:24:00.000-08:00

Each fall I predict the outcomes of each NFL division. Previously, I posted on my picks for the NFC's four divisions compared to those in three major NFL annuals - Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News and Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo.

What follows are the outcomes of the AFC predictions:

AFC East
Actual: New England, NY Jets, Miami, Buffalo
Bayee: NY Jets, New England, Miami Buffalo
SI: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
TSN: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
PFW: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
The winner is: No one and everyone. The Jets ultimately knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs, but nobody expected a 14-2 Pats regular season.

AFC North
Actual: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati
Bayee: Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
SI: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland
TSN: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland
PFW: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland
The winner is: SI, which also predicted the Steelers will win the Super Bowl. At least the other publications had the sense to pick a playoff team - the Ravens - in first. Not me. I fell for the Bengals. In a season of bad predictions, that was my worst.

AFC South
Actual: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee
Bayee: Houston, Indy, Tennessee, Jacksonville
SI: Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville
TSN: Indy, Tennessee, Houston, Jacksonville
PFW: Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville
The winner is: All three publications got the Colts right, and everyone was wrong on the Jaguars. I take small consolation in having Tennessee third.

AFC West
Actual: Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland, Denver
Bayee: San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
SI: San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Kansas City
TSN: San Diego, Kansas City, Oakland, Broncos
PFW: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
The winner is: No one. TSN at least had the Chiefs second, while SI picked them last. PFW had Denver second. Obviously the Chargers were heavy favorites.

Biggest surprises: Kansas City and Jacksonville
Biggest disappointments: San Diego, Houston and Cincinnati

One interesting note - each of the three NFC disappointments (San Francisco, Dallas and Minnesota) changed coaches during the season. Not only did the three AFC disappointments keep their coaches all season, they kept them for next season (though Houston overhauled its defensive staff).

2010 NFL season: How were our NFC predictions?

2011-01-22T09:22:00.000-08:00

Some of the more fun posts to write each season are the looks back at how several major publications as well as myself fared in our preseason picks.

My three for comparison's sake are Sports Illustrated, Sporting News' annual (which incorporated Street and Smith's a few years back) and Pro Football Weekly, which has teamed with Yahoo Sports!

NFC East
Actual order: Philadelphia, NY Giants, Dallas Washington
Bayee: NYG, Dallas, Philly, Wash.
SI: NYG, Dallas, Philly, Wash.
TSN: Dallas, NYG, Philly, Wash.
PFW: Dallas, NYG, Wash., Philly
The winner is: No one. No one saw Philly (or Michael Vick) emerging, nor Dallas imploding under coach Wade Phillips. Washington (bad) and the Giants (decent) were about what was expected.

NFC North
Actual order: Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota
Bayee: Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago
SI: Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit
TSN: Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit
PFW: Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit
The winner is: No one. No one picked the Bears higher than third (I had them fourth, but I did see the Lions improving more than others). No one saw the Vikings' meltdown coming either. And no one could have imagined the nightmare season Brett Favre (and those close to him) endured.

NFC South
Actual: Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina
Bayee: New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay
SI: New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
TSN: Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay
PFW: Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay
The winner is: TSN and PFW came closest here, nailing the first- and second-place teams. NO ONE saw the Bucs' dramatic improvement coming. And I'm sure SI would like its pick of the Panthers (whom the magazine projected would make the playoffs) back.

NFC West
Actual: Seattle, St. Louis, San Francisco, Arizona
Bayee: San Fran, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
SI: San Fran, Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis

TSN: San Fran, Arizona, St. Louis, Seattle
PFW: San Fran, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
The winner is: Well, someone had to win this division. This division's imploding team was the 49ers, closely followed by the Cardinals. SI tabbed the Seahawks second, and no one saw the Rams as anything but a cellar dweller (or close).

Biggest surprise team: Bears
Biggest disappointment: Take your pick - Cowboys, Vikings or 49ers

Michael Vick tells us what has made the difference for him this season

2010-12-23T18:39:00.001-08:00

thought it was all over last summer, just one year after his release from prison. His second chance might be his last.

What could have been destructive instead laid the foundation for Vick's return to NFL stardom and the Philadelphia Eagles' ascent to one of the NFC's elite teams.

So what's up with Jeff Fisher and the Titans?

2010-12-23T18:37:00.000-08:00

The NFL's current longest-tenured coach speaks out about the Tennessee Titans' crazy season, which has included Cortland Finegan's on-field fight with Andre Johnson, the acquisition of Randy Moss and quarterback Vince Young's latest meltdown.

What makes the Steelers tick?

2010-12-23T18:32:00.000-08:00

In a recent article I wrote for NFL.com, Pittsburgh wide receiver Hines Ward spells out why the Steelers are playing so well this season and shares his thoughts on the exodus of hitting in the pro game.

NFL Week 2 Snap Judgements

2010-09-17T08:22:00.000-07:00

A review of the week that was and a preview of the upcoming weekend in the NFL.

Unfortunately, we were subjected to yet another week of off-the-field distractions dominating the headlines rather than what most fans want to read/hear about -- the games that count.

I'm not going to dive into the topic of whether female reporters should be in the locker room other than to say I think there should not be locker room access for any members of the media. Period. Have another area where the media can mingle with and interview players once they're off the field. Unless a player is receiving medical treatment, make it mandatory that all players at least make an appearance. I think it's a good compromise -- players get their sanctuary back, can shower and dress without cameras, mics and notebooks in their way, and the media gets wider access and hopefully, more cooperative players.

A few Week 1 impressions:
The two loudest teams (literally) during the offseason were the Jets and the Bengals. Neither had what could deemed a stellar opening game. Cincinnati was thrashed by the Patriots (why do we ever doubt the power of the hoodie?), while the Jets self-destructed vs. an equally aggressive Ravens team. Given that the teams swap opponents this week, I will be very interested to see what changes they make. For the Jets, it's simple -- don't shoot yourself in the foot with penalties and try to establish some sort of offensive rhythm. I don't think QB Mark Sanchez and RB Shonn Greene are as bad as they looked, but both are second-year players and might not be quite ready to be the men in Gotham. ... The Bengals have to rediscover their defense. Remember, for all the hype around the addition of Terrell Owens, it was Cincinnati's defense that allowed it to run the table in the AFC North last season.

Injury bug
Each year, the focus on injuries seems brightest after the first week, and this year has been no exception. The list of players who went down is staggering and could have wide-ranging impact on several teams perceived to be among the league's elite.

How do the Packers overcome the loss of RB Ryan Grant? The Jets' NT Kris Jenkins? The Colts S Bob Sanders? And how long will the Eagles be without new starting QB Kevin Kolb and MLB Stewart Bradley, the fulcrum of their defense?

I think the loss of Grant is going to force the Packers' hand to get another running back, an assertion more than one of my NFL.com colleagues disagreed with me about this week. I am not convinced Brandon Jackson can stay healthy, and I highly doubt either of the two rookies in the mix (practice squad refugee Dmitri Nance and PUP list resident James Starks) will contribute a lot in coach Mike McCarthy's multi-look offense.

Sanders has played barely a full season's worth of games combined during the past three seasons, so it's not as if Indy hasn't faced this before. Plus the Colts have the capable Mevlin Bullitt in the wings. The Jets survived Jenkins' loss last season, though it's a tough pill spill to swallow when someone who worked as hard as he did to get back goes down again.

Speaking of Jenkins, it had to be a brutal weekend for the Jenkins family. First DE Cullen injures his hand and has to play with it wrapped in a "club" for the Packers on Sunday. Then Kris, who considered retiring early in the offseason but worked his way back from a torn ACL, goes down to the same injury in the first half of the first game of the season.

A look at Week 2:
As previously noted, I think the Bengals-Ravens AFC North clash and the Jets-Patriots AFC East battle are the two games of the week with the farthest-reaching impacts. I also think the Bengals will find a way to win, but the Jets won't. ... The Steelers-Titans game in Tennessee also will have some effect on the AFC playoff race down the road as both teams should at least be in the mix for a wild-card spot. How will Pittsburgh's veteran defense (a polite way of saying older) handle the speed of QB Vince Young and RB Chris Johnson? Keep in mind the Steelers struggled at home against an average Falcons defense, which is another reason I like the Titans in this one.

A few other division winners from a season ago had better find ways to win -- chiefly San Diego, Dallas, Minnesota and Indianapolis, each of whom could start 0-2, making it far tougher to reach the playoffs, particularly since several division rivals have "homecoming games" this weekend.

The Cowboys and Colts have the most to lose with a loss because they play in stronger divisions and already have lost intradivisional games. Getting OLs Kyle Kosier and Marc Columbo back certainly will help the Cowboys against the Bears, and I think the Cowboys' coverage can handle the Bears' passing game much better than the Lions did. ... The Colts entertain the Giants in Manning Bowl 2, and both teams are coming off mixed performances. The Colts had the misfortune of having theirs come against a tougher team on the road (the Texans). I don't like where the Colts are on both lines, and the Giants are a tough matchup for them. Indy will have its hands full covering the Giants' myriad of targets and containing its running game, so I see the Colts losing again. As I stated in my AFC preview, I think this is the year the Colts fall off. ... The Vikings looked old against the Saints, but they're at home and have had 10 days to recover. Their opponent, the Dolphins, struggled against the Bills. The Vikings are decimated at WR, so this will be the game for RB Adrian Peterson to impose his will. ... The Chargers -- who will be blacked out in Southern California because they did not sell out -- looked out of sorts vs. the Chiefs. The Jaguars come to town fresh off a victory over the Broncos, but Jacksonville has not traveled well to the West and is flying coast to coast on Saturday. Even if San Diego, which needs to consider signing LT Marcus McNeill asap, loses, it's not the end of the world because the AFC West probably could be won with a 9-7 record. Still, this doesn't look like on the Chargers should lose.

Last call
Patriots QB Tom Brady called out New England fans for leaving early during the blowout of the Bengals in Week 1, saying he's sure Jets fans won't do that in New York this week. Ouch. ... In a related note, many wonder why Los Angeles doesn't have an NFL team. Well, take a look to the south, where San Diego is a multi-time AFC West winner and conference powerhouse loaded with talent. The Chargers can't sell out their home opener. It's not because of the opening loss to the Chiefs either. The Bolts obviously have a low season-ticket base. California as a whole, but Southern California in particular, is a fickle sports market for any team not named the Lakers.

2010 NFC Predictions

2010-09-12T09:07:00.000-07:00

Better late than never, here is one way the NFC could shake out during the 2010 NFL season.

East - NY Giants, Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington
Comment: Last season was a blip on the radar for the Giants, and I think a healthy defense will fix many of their 2009 problems. One concern is their aging o-line, but they have a versatile offense that can hurt teams on the ground or through the air. ... Same concern for the Cowboys - will the o-line hold up? I like the Dallas D, and I think the passing game should be spectacular if QB Tony Romo remains upright. ... Too many changes in Philly for the Eagles to contend. They took a massive risk trading Donovan McNabb within the division, and it may well cost them a playoff spot. The key question is can they gel? ... I like many of the Redskins' moves, particularly bringing in McNabb and turning over an aging, ineffective roster, but they appear to be a year away.

North - Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago
Comment: This is based upon two factors - the Packers' continued development of their young players and the Vikings' over-reliance on a QB (Brett Favre) who won't come close to duplicating his magical 2009 season. ... The Packers' offense should be near unstoppable. Two concerns are a porous secondary and horrendous special teams. If those are average, they're going deep in the playoffs. ... Losing WR Sidney Rice robs Favre of one of his safety valves. But Favre probably will take a month or so to get in sync after again missing most of camp. The defense should be strong, but there are concerns on the corner in a pass-heavy division. ... I love the Lions' offseason signings, and they appear to have had another excellent draft. I don't think 6-7 wins are out of the question. ... The Bears, conversely, did almost nothing to address their issues (secondary, o-line, front office). Signing DE Julius Peppers got a lot of attention, but I actually think RB Chester Taylor could do more to help the Bears this season. Chicago's problem is most of their best players now are 30 or older.

South - New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay
Comment: If the Saints improve their defense at all, they're going to be there right at the end again. Their offense is lethal. ... The Falcons are primed to make the playoffs, but can they get past the Saints? Much of the answer hinges on their improvement on defense. ... The Panthers still have passing game concerns, and now they won't have LB Thomas Davis (knee injury) and DE Julius Peppers (free agency) on defense. I don't see the leap for them that many predict. ... The Bucs had a good draft. They need two more. Their defense will have to be incredible to make up for a lackluster offense.

West - San Francisco, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
Comment: More questions than answers. ... Can the 49ers pass the ball? How do the Cardinals replace QB Kurt Warner, WR Anquon Boldin, LB Carlos Dansby, and S Antrel Rolle? How far will positive reinforcement from new coach Pete Carroll take the Seahawks, who have fallen behind in the talent department? Will rookie QB Sam Bradford remain upright in St. Louis? ... The 49ers have the defense and running game to win what again will be the NFL's weakest division. The Cardinals still have a lot of talent, but they need a lot to go right to compete for a playoff spot. The Seahawks just don't have elite talent any more, and if you monitor many of their moves, it seems they've figured out they need to rebuild. The Rams are slowly getting some of the pieces to compete ... some day.

2010 AFC Predictions

2010-09-12T08:45:00.000-07:00

Better late (or early in this case) than never.

Here is how I see each division shaking out during the 2010 NFL season with a comment after each.

AFC
East - NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
Comment: I see flaws with every team in this division, and I think it will be a dogfight between the top three teams. I considered going with the Dolphins, but I'm reading about too many injuries and external problems to pick them in good conscience now. ... If Mark Sanchez is average at QB, the Jets (whom I think are overrated a bit ) could win. But they need RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson to come up big. ... The Patriots have talent, but have the look of a team in transition. I expect them to play better as the season goes along. ... Ditto the Bills, who will rely heavily on their running game.

North - Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
Comment: Tough call again between the top two teams but I went with the Bengals because I don't see a weak position group on that team, and the Ravens' secondary concerns me quite a bit. ... With all the talk of the Dynamic Duo at WR for the Bengals, the real pressure is on Carson Palmer to produce at QB. He play has slipped the past few years due to injury and inaccuracy. If rebounds, the Bengals could go deep in the playoffs. ... The Ravens have all of the ingredients save for a secondary to also enjoy January (and perhaps February) games. Their offense should be among the league's best, and their front seven on defense remains top-notch. ... I think the Steelers will really struggle without suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first month of the season. I also am not sold on their offensive line or cornerbacks. They've turned over a fair amount of their roster the past two years and their younger players must play well now or it could be another 8-8 season. ... The Browns have more stability in the front office (Mike Holmgren) and under center (Jake Delhomme), but injuries on defense will hurt early on. Tough to see them doing very well in a stacked division this year.

South - Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville
Comment: The Colts have to fall off some year, and I think this is it. ... The Texans have the pieces for an explosive offense, and they've drafted a lot of talent on defense. If the latter gels and they can win their Week 1 matchup with the Colts, I see not only a division title, but possibly a playoff win in the cards. ... The Colts' lines scare me. Peyton Manning appeared more frustrated during preseason than I've ever seen him (not just about the placement of umpires), and their o-line didn't protect him well vs. vanilla defenses. The frequency of injuries to top players on defense - DE Dwight Freeney and S Bob Sanders - has to be a concern given their ages. ... The Titans are a trendy pick to re-emerge as a contender, but defenses will key on RB Chris Johnson a lot more. So it falls on QB Vince Young to develop into the elite QB his talent indicates he can. If that happens, the Titans could break through. ... The Jaguars have enough talent to be a tough out vs. any opponent, but sustaining a high level of play has been the challenge for them over the past few years.

West - San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
Comment: This will be a very interesting division to follow, and probably not because it will house a truly great team. ... The Chargers have lost a lot of talent - RB LaDainian Tomlinson, LT Marcus McNeill, WR Vincent Jackson, CB Antonio Cromartie, and NT Jamal Williams to name five past Pro Bowl picks - since the 2009 season ended and appear to be heading back to the pack. Perhaps they know something we don't and they have talent ready to replace that quintet. ... The Raiders added quite a bit - QB Jason Campbell, MLB Rolando McClain come to mind - to an underrated group of youngsters. The biggest plus might be coaching stability this season.... The Chiefs seem to be on the same upward track as the Raiders, but perhaps one step behind in the talent department. ... The Broncos traded their best offensive player (WR Brandon Marshall) and lost their best defensive player (sackman Elvis Dumervil) to a season-ending injury in camp. Their top RB (Knowshown Moreno) is injured and his backup (Correll Buckhalter) has had as many knee surgeries as some team. If last season's second-half implosion, things could spin out of control at an altitude of one mile pretty quickly.

Welcome back football, now listen up

2010-09-04T15:53:00.000-07:00

College and high school football have begun in force, and the NFL kicks off for real on Thursday, so that means it's time for my football blog to return for its fifth season in this forum.

Before I post my season previews and compare my predictions to some major publications', I'd like to address the major topic that is hanging over this season -- a potential lockout by owners in early 2011.

As wonderful as it is to have football back, can you imagine a fall without the NFL? One would have to go back to 1987 to find the last labor disruption in the league. The only good thing that came out of that was Saints coach Sean Payton, who was one of the replacement players hired to play that season.

The dynamics of the game have changed immeasurably since -- look no further than the amounts of money involved in contracts, television, stadiums and merchandise. The NFL is king of the sporting universe, and nothing else is even close.

Do you think for a moment that a group of players with short shelf lives are going to throw away a year with this amount of moolah at stake?

Do you think owners, many of whom now are leveraged more than ever in a down economy because of building new stadiums, are going to say no to all that revenue their new palaces generate?

Here are three areas I think need to be addressed that will benefit both sides.

1. Safety: Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs states, in effect, that this at near the top of the "need" list for most people (after food, water and sleep). The NFL is taking some good steps in examining equipment, treatment and rules to make the game safer.

But there is much more to it than this. Given the onslaught of retired players with serious medical woes vocalizing their displeasure (and I think they have a point), the league and union could/should come together on a more comprehensive post-playing health insurance plan. Typically, this would be a union responsibility, but given the money both parties make, I believe it should be a joint effort.

It also should not be free. Ex-players should pay a reasonable premium, just as the rest of us do, but their policies should take into account the physical punishment they endure. There is enough money out there now to get this off the ground. Perhaps take a small percentage of players' salaries to fund it for their futures.

I sense that many players adopt the mindset of getting whatever they can when they can because no one really has their backs. Perhaps this would help address that, or maybe the next item would.

2. Guarantee contracts and pay bonuses based upon individual and team performance. Signing bonuses are guaranteed money (which is why they've exploded in recent years), but the standard player contract isn't. Contracts are guaranteed in the NBA, NHL and Major League Baseball, but not in the most violent sport - football. This always has struck me as odd.

Owners would argue that guarantees will remove incentives to play hard. This is where performance bonuses come in. Say the team reaches certain plateaus of success, everyone on the team gets a bonus based upon their playing time. Add some individual statistical bonuses, but make them a fraction of the team and playing time bonuses.

In theory, owners should love this because they're paying for performance. Players should love it because if they sign a contract, they're guaranteed a certain amount of money.

An added benefit is this would reign in many teams who spend wildly, make mistakes, then spend wildly again. Most teams probably would be more cautious about the amount and the duration of contracts they offer. Maybe 2- to 3-year deals would become the norm. That could work both ways for players. Not happy with your contract, you're only a year from being able to sign a new one for potentially a lot more money. Injured in the final year of your contract, at least you'd have health insurance and be better equipped to work your way back. Have a huge year while being underpaid? Payday is right around the corner.

I believe it would reward players who work hard and teams that do their homework. Those who don't would at least not be rewarded.

3. Rookie salary scale. Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford could end up being good quarterbacks. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are great quarterbacks. So why are Bradford and Stafford in the same salary neighborhood?

This comes back to paying the players who have proven themselves. I'm not for slotting salaries by pick or round drafted because the draft is a hugely inexact science. But having ranges for rookies, perhaps a rookie signing pool based upon the number of picks a team has.

Based upon all that I've read and heard, I'd be willing to bet some semblence of this appears in the next labor deal.

3b. Expanded regular season. If it happens, two things need to happen - player compensation has to increase and rosters need to expand, or at least practice squads do. The owners would get more TV revenue with two more "meaningful" games, so the players should as well.

These are giant issues for the King Kong of all sports leagues.

So will a lockout happen? I think it's possible. Will it last into the 2011 season. I doubt it -- there is too much at stake.

Taking a look back at the 2005 NFL Draft

2010-05-07T11:06:00.000-07:00

Perhaps you're like me and grow weary of all the "instant analysis" after NFL Drafts.

Winners, losers and grades.

I believe a far more accurate barometer is five years out, and here is why. Five years is approximately two more than the average player's NFL shelf life. Those who have survived five seasons are now working on their second contract in the league and either are cemented as a star, contributor or hanger on.

Here is my look back at the 2005 NFL draft, which on the whole has far more disappointments than top-end players.

First Round (No. indicates overall selection)
Great picks (impact players)
11 - LB DeMarcus Ware, Dallas - Today's prototype speed rusher in the 3-4 alignment
12 - LB Shawne Merriman, San Diego - An impact player when healthy in body and mind
24 - QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay - Could end up with better career stats than the guy he replaced if he keeps this up
27 - WR Roddy White, Atlanta - It took four seasons, but White emerged as a threat when Matt Ryan arrived
32 - G Logan Mankins, New England - A Pro Bowl guard

Good picks (above average starter)
2 - RB Ronnie Brown, Miami - Might be in top category had not parts of three seasons been ended by injury
3 - WR Braylon Edwards, Cleveland - One great season and a lot of question marks
8 - CB Antrel Rolle, Arizona - Good but not good enough to keep apparently
9 - CB Carlos Rodgers, Washington - Undone by injuries
13 - OT Jamaal Brown, New Orleans - One of the anchors of the Super Bowl champs' line
14 - LB Thomas Davis, Carolina - Has made successful transition from S to LB and is one of the Panthers' better defenders, close to a great pick
15 - LB Derrick Johnson, Kansas City - Slow start to his career, but he's making strides
19 - OT Alex Barron, St. Louis - He has started since Day 1 on one of the league's worst lines
26 - C Chris Spencer, Seattle - A solid starting center
28 - DE Luis Castillo, San Diego - Very good at the point of attack and at pressuring the QB
30 - TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh - Good in all phases, a typical solid Steeler pick
31 - DT Mike Patterson, Philadelphia - A disruptive presence inside

Lousy picks
4 - RB Cedric Benson, Chicago - Coming off one good season ... for Cincinnati
5 - RB Carnell Williams, Tampa Bay - Seemed like a risky pick given his size at the time. Can't stay healthy
6 - CB Adam Jones, Tennessee - Super talent and immaturity levels; another Bengals reclamation project
7 - WR Troy Williamson, Minnesota - Four TDs in five seasons and can't crack the Jaguars' shaky receiving core
11 - WR Mike Williams, Detroit - Just wrong on so many fronts; out of the league
16 - DT Travis Johnson, Houston - Looking for a fresh start in San Diego
17 - DE David Pollack, Cincinnati - Injuries ended his career before it started
18 - DE Erasmus James, Minnesota - Forced to retire because of injuries
20 - DE Marcus Spears, Dallas - Has never lived up to the hype but a servicable player
21 - QB Matt Jones, Arkansas - He could run, but he couldn't throw, catch or stay out of trouble
22 - WR Mark Clayton, Baltimore - After a decent second season (67 catches, 5 TDs), he's vanished
23 - CB Fabian Washington, Oakland - Extra DB has bounced around
29 - CB Marlin Jackson, Indianapolis - New Eagle had health issues and never asserted himself in a talented Colts secondary

Maybe they'll work out
1 - QB Alex Smith, San Francisco - He's the starter for now, but it's tough to find anyone who would pick him over Aaron Rodgers at this point.
25 - QB Jason Campbell, Washington - Put Campbell in a stable organization and football staff and he could thrive, but to go from the Redskins to the Raiders, well, not exactly how one would draw it up

Good drafts (team)
Atlanta - WR White, DT Jonathan Babineaux, LB Chauncey Davis, LB Michael Boley (NY Giants) and G Frank Omiyale (Chicago) are contributing in Atlanta or elsewhere.

Dallas - Ware, Spears, RB Marion Barber, DE Chris Canty (NY Giants) and NT Jay Ratliff are starters, and Ware has been defensive MVP

Green Bay - Rodgers and S Nick Collins have made multiple Pro Bowl appearances

New England - Mankins has been to the Pro Bowl and third-round T Nick Kaczur is a starter, as was CB Ellis Hobbs. The steal? QB Matt Cassel with the 230th pick.

N.Y. Giants - CB Corey Webster, DE Justin Tuck and RB Brandon Jacobs in rounds 2, 3, 4

San Diego - Yes, Merriman and Castillo have had injury and consistency problems, but they're above-average starters. This draft also yielded WR Vincent Jackson and RB Darren Sproles.

San Francisco - Get beyond the Smith pick and you find G David Baas, RB Frank Gore, NT Ronald Fields, all very good starters

Mixed bag
Baltimore - They missed on Clayton and DE Dan Cody, but T Adam Terry, C Jason Brown (St. Louis) and QB Derek Anderson (Arizona) were hits

Tennessee - How is this so with the Jones pick, as well as bust WRs Courtney Roby and Brandon Jones? Second-round T Michael Roos and sixth-round TE Bo Scaife are how. Roos might be the best LT in the game

Very bad
Detroit - Mike Williams? Shaun Cody? Career backup QB Dan Orlovsky probably is the highlight.

Buffalo - WR Roscoe Parrish was the top pick, followed by since-paralyzed TE Kevin Everett.

Cincinnati - Pollack suffered a career-ending injury. LB Odell Thurman and the late WR Chris Henry had multiple run-ins with the law and subsequent suspensions. And to think they signed Pacman Jones to a two-year contract.

Denver - CB Darent Williams was shot and killed. RB Maurice Clarett went to prison. CBs Karl Paymah (San Francisco) and Dominique Foxworth (Baltimore) have bounced around the league.

Jacksonville - Jones wasn't good enough to play QB or WR or stay out of trouble with the law. T Khalif Barnes was out of the organization within three years. Third-round pick S Scott Starks is a special teams player.

Minnesota - Not one, but TWO first-round busts (James and Williamson)

Oakland - Washington, CB Stanford Routt and QB Andrew Walter were the first three picks. LB Kirk Morrison is the only contributor, and if one re-projected this draft he'd have gone in the first round.

It's the End of the 2009 Season as We Know It ...

2010-02-08T10:52:00.001-08:00

Congratulations to the Saints and New Orleans on their breath-taking Super Bowl 44 victory.

A few random thoughts on the game, its coverage and the NFL ...

Upon further review, I liked that Saints Coach Sean Payton went for it on fourth-and-goal late in the first half. He looks like a genius today for calling for the onside kick to start the second half. Some coaches talk about having confidence in their players. Payton demonstrated it. ...

Payton Manning is catching a lot of flack today over the fourth-quarter interception that Tracy Porter returned for a touchdown. No question that was one of the game-altering players. However, Manning also engineered a Super Bowl-record, 96-yard touchdown drive on the previous Colts series, and he had the Colts in position for a touchdown immediately after the Saints' pick-six.

Manning, of course, doesn't need me to defend him, but there is plenty of blame to go around in Indy:

Pierre Garcon not only dropped a key third-down pass that killed a first-half drive, but he committed a red zone penalty late in the fourth quarter.
Reggie Wayne dropped a touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter. Wayne also was the intended receiver on the pick six, and I wondered aloud if he could have come back for the pass.
The Colts took two other penalties late in the game - one a hold on a kickoff return after Porter's interception return for a touchdown - that cost field position.

...

I have oscillated in my thinking on Deion Sanders' role on NFL Network's usually solid NFL GameDay broadcast.

A few years back, I could neither stand him nor understand him a vast majority of the time.

During the 2008 season, I thought Sanders provided much more insight and intelligent commentary. This past season was another story; I thought he regressed and the show itself lost some luster. He was true to recent form again Sunday night.

Sanders' default now appears to be the need to label most players who commit a postseason turnover a choker - Manning, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers - unless of course that player is Adrian Peterson, whose three touchdowns against the Saints matched his fumbles. (I am of the opinion Peterson's mistakes cost the Vikings a shot at the Super Bowl at least as much as Favre's and probably more).

Sanders' biting remarks - some justified and some not - aren't new. Neither is his overwhelming fixation on money (Pay the man! Don't hurt the money-maker! Blah, blah - insert money, blah).

As a player, I thought Sanders was wildly talented in coverage and very dangerous in the return game, but also something of a front-runner (check out his jumps from team to team).

The money fixation from someone who undoubtedly earned a Brinks truck full of it is puzzling, and it's hurting NFL Network's product. ...

Tough to make out what will happen with the league's labor situation, but you can bet that talk will overshadow everything else during the offseason. I think the NFL HAS to have a new agreement in place before the kickoff of the 2010 season or the specter of a 2011 lockout will cast a pall over the 2010 season. That could result in fan backlash and more less-than-sold-out stadiums (and more blackouts).

I'm also very curious to see how the uncapped year plays out in free agency (which begins less than a month from now), and to a lesser extent in the draft, where rookie money for first-rounders is way out of whack already....

I love pro football, but after what I've seen, heard and experienced in relation to the NFL this past year, maybe a lockout (and severe hit to the bottom line) would be a wake-up call that all parties involved need.

The rhetoric from the players and the owners is tiresome. The constant theme is this: greed.

Week 12 NFL Review

2009-11-29T20:00:00.001-08:00

This isn't a full review ... because the game of the week is on Monday night in New Orleans.

Conventional wisdom says watch out for teams who close out the season on a roll. Well, we have five weeks left and three of the hottest teams reside in the AFC - Indianapolis, San Diego and Tennessee each has won five or more games in a row. The similarities end there.

The Colts are 11-0 and seemingly find a new way each week to come back and win. Their AFC South Division brethren, the Titans, have won five in a row ... after starting the season with six consecutive losses. The difference? Would you believe Vince Young, who is playing like the franchise quarterback he was projected to be when he was drafted four years ago.

How quickly things change. One season ago, it was Kerry Collins at the helm, replacing Young and leading the Titans to a 13-3 record. After Collins was unable to lead Tennessee to a victory through the end of October, the Titans made a change (strongly suggested by owner Bud Adams, by the way) after their bye week.

Meanwhile, out West the Chargers (8-3) have bolted to six consecutive victories to overtake the Denver Broncos - they of a 6-0 start - in the division. In the 50th anniversary season of the AFL, the Chargers are turning back the clock and scoring like an AFL team.

The NFC has just two teams on win streaks of four or longer, the 10-1 Vikings and the 10-0 Saints.

The coldest teams? In the NFC, the Bears - once considered an NFC North contender - have dropped four in a row, while the Browns (1-10) have dropped six consecutive in the AFC. Another team that has seen its fortunes go in reverse? Houston (5-6), which has lost three straight and now finds itself in a logjam two games out of the final AFC wild-card spot.

How wild is that?
I have a tough time remembering a season when all eight divisions might be decided before December, but that is what appears to be the case this season. Clearly the wild-card races will be the most competitive.

In the NFC, only the East - where the Cowboys have a one-game lead over the Eagles - is close at the moment. Minnesota has a three-game lead plus a tiebreaker over Green Bay in the North. The Saints have a five-game lead plus a tie-breaker on Atlanta in the South. And the Cardinals have a two-game lead over San Francisco in the West. The 49ers, however, could be in business if they keep winning because they face Arizona again and the Cardinals face the red-hot Vikings next week.

In the AFC, the Colts will clinch the South with one more victory. The Bengals swept their division and have a two-game lead plus all tiebreakers in the North. The Chargers are playing almost as well as anyone in the NFL and they hammered their closest pursuer - the Broncos - in Denver in Week 11. Win or lose Monday, the Patriots are in charge in the East, and a win Monday keeps their lead at three.

Top 5/Bottom 5 ... will appear after the Monday Night Game.

Week 9 Around the NFL

2009-11-07T08:28:00.000-08:00

Do the owners' really know what they're doing?

This isn't what you think: I'm talking about picking quarterbacks. I'll leave the other stuff to someone else to determine.

You know by now the Cowboys' Jerry Jones (also the team's GM!) and the Redskins' Daniel Snyder are aggressive meddlers, and if you're a fan of either of those teams, you can thank the honchos for Tony Romo and Jason Campbell.

Now comes rumblings that the Glazers want to see first-round pick Josh Freeman start ... and so he will on Sunday vs. the Packers. Nothing against Freeman, who from all appearances is a physical marvel. But he's the team's third starter at the most important position in eight games. If the plan was to go with him, then why give Josh Johnson four games as starter? Or why sign Byron Leftwich and then banish him to the bench after three games? What's going on here?

Next up is Titans owner Bud Adams, who a few weeks back mentioned he'd like to see Vince Young start for the then 0-6 Titans after their bye week. Young's problems and personality quirks have been well-documented, but lo and behold Young played last week and the Titans got their first win of the season. Adams, the man who moved his franchise from Houston to Nashville (only to see the NFL place an expansion team in Houston, which now has a beautiful new stadium that Adams apparently couldn't get), must know something about QBs.

In the weeds
Take this to the bank. There will be some team in the middle of the pack right now that makes a move to not only earn a playoff spot and win at least one playoff game. A couple of AFC teams in that category can take big first steps in that direction in Week 9.

Some candidates:
Miami, which plays the Patriots. The Dolphins are 3-4, but have won three of their past four. All three wins came in the AFC East, including two vs. the New York Jets (4-4). A win at New England would position the Dolphins well to make a run at the AFC East. ...

Baltimore, which travels to Cincinnati. The Ravens (4-3) lost to the Bengals in the last minute of their Week 5 game at Baltimore. The next week, the Ravens missed a last-second field goal at the Metrodome that could have send Minnesota to its first loss. If Baltimore wins this game it will tie the Bengals for the AFC North lead. If Pittsburgh wins at Denver on Monday, there would be a three-way tie for first, and the Ravens and Steelers would have two meetings to come.

San Diego, which travels to New York to play the reeling Giants. The Bolts (4-3) are having a lot of problems on defense, due in large part to the season-ending injury to NT Jamal Williams and substandard play from their heralded group of linebackers. However, they're just two games behind the suddenly vulnerable Broncos, who could be 6-2 by the time Week 10 rolls around. Yes, Denver won at San Diego, but don't count the Chargers out just yet.

Top 5:

1. New Orleans (7-0) - Trap game vs. somewhat resurgent Panthers on Sunday.
2. Minnesota (7-1) - Late bye week and a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way sets up the Vikings for a deep playoff run.
3. Indianapolis (7-0) - Injuries on defense are bound to catch up with them sooner than later, quite possibly vs. Houston this week.
4. Philadelphia (5-2) - Interesting game vs. Dallas this week. Eagles can establish themselves as the NFC East front-runner with consecutive victories over Giants and Cowboys.
5. New England (6-2) - Patriots show signs of dominance at times, and the late bye also helps them. Must beat Miami at home this weekend.

Also considered: Houston (5-3), Pittsburgh (5-2), Cincinnati (5-2), Dallas (5-2), Denver (6-1)

Bottom 5 (tough to limit it to five this season):

28. St. Louis (1-7) - The Rams get two weeks to enjoy their victory.
29. Oakland (2-6) - The Raiders appear to quit at times, yet they're capable of beating the Eagles? This team should have its own category.
30. Detroit (1-6) - You lose to the Rams at home, and you get a permanent 2009 spot in this category.
31. Cleveland (1-7) - Derek Anderson is playing as badly as any QB I've ever seen. Oh, and they don't have a GM for some reason now.
32. Tampa Bay (0-7) - As if things weren't bad enough, they're hauling out the Creamsicle uniforms this weekend.

Also considered: Kansas City (1-6), Washington (2-5), Seattle (2-5), Tennessee (1-6).

Week 5 NFL Review

2009-10-11T19:35:00.000-07:00

Several observations from Sunday's NFL games ...

Don't look now, but the Bungles, I mean Bengals, are 4-1. Their lone loss was to the unbeaten Broncos on a play we might not see replicated for another 10 years.

They added a win over the Ravens on Sunday to one over the Steelers and one over the Packers. Cincinnati also has defeated the Browns, meaning that five weeks into the season the Bengals not only have a one-game lead in the NFC North, but they have defeated every team in their division already.

In addition to another round vs. the Ravens (home) and Steelers (road), the Bengals have dates remaining against the Vikings, Bears, Jets and Chargers. However, they also play the Browns again, and have dates against the Raiders, Chiefs, Lions and Texans. So not only is 9-7 likely, with another couple of wins vs. better teams on their remaining schedule, the Bengals realistically could finish 11-5.

GAME OF THE WEEK?
I was ready to tear FOX a new one when I discovered their No. 1 announcing team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman was calling the Chiefs-Cowboys game (or Dallas Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys in the retro uniforms). The game turned out to be one of the few watchable ones on a Sunday full of annihilations. But initially I wanted to jump all over the network for putting the St. Louis-based Buck and the Dallas-based Aikman on that game rather than the promising 49ers-Falcons game. (What, do these guys have travel clauses in their contracts?). Who knew the Texans, er Chiefs, would take the Cowboys to overtime?

OH YEAH
I can't remember a season when there have been five undefeated teams this far into the season, and as the Patriots found out on Sunday, the Broncos are for real. The Giants, Vikings and Colts defeated three of the NFL's worst teams (a large group this year, more on this in a bit), and the Saints had the weekend. It is highly unlikely I will be writing about five undefeated teams next Sunday because the Giants travel to New Orleans. The Giants haven't been tested for a few weeks, so I'm curious to see how they fare against the Saints.

OH NO
Conversely, I can't remember a season when there were so many awful teams. I told a family member Friday that I believe a handful of the worst of the worst - the Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, Browns, Bills and Bucs - will only win when they play each other. The Raiders' only win was vs. the Chiefs, and the Browns won their first game Sunday, 6-3, vs. the Bills. The Titans, now 0-5, are close to joining that club no matter how good I think they could have been. And even though the Panthers got in the win column Sunday, they were not impressive vs. the Redskins. Washington, by the way, has only played winless teams this season. Sure the Redskins are 2-3, but they look impotent on offense. So that is nine teams (and I suspect there are a few others out there who have fooled us with a few wins) that basically can forget about it this season. And we're in Week 5.

YUCK!
I thought the Seattle Seahawks' "unwanted popsicles" uniforms in Week 3 were the most hideous I'd ever seen ... until Sunday. The Denver Broncos' brown and yellow uniforms, complete with vertically striped socks, rate even higher on the awful meter. Popsicles I can stomach, striped turds I can't.

NFC WORST?
All four NFC West teams had home games Sunday, and results were mixed. ... The Rams (again) looked awful and are 0-5 after getting hammered by the Vikings. But the other doings in the NFC West on Sunday made it a race after all. ... First, the front-running 49ers (3-2) got their hats handed to them by the Falcons, 45-10, at home. My guess - Mike Singletary doesn't give the Niners a day off from practice during their upcoming bye week. ... Next, the Arizona Cardinals held on to beat the Houston Texans (the current Texans, that is) with a goal-line stand. This of course was after the Birds blew a 21-point halftime lead. ... Then Seattle welcomed Matt Hasselbeck back by pounding visiting Jacksonville. (Jovy, this was for you. Quit hassling me about the Hawks for a few weeks would ya)

NFL Week 5 Preview

2009-10-09T13:14:00.001-07:00

Ever wonder if maybe an assistant had more to do with a team's success than a head coach did?

I've pondered this in light of some fall-offs by a couple of teams recently.

Exhibit A: The Titans
While many plan Tennessee's defensive plunge (and it's a big one) on the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth, remember that Haynesworth had an uneven career with the Titans (injuries, suspensions, lackadaisical play mixed with sheer dominance). More of a constant was coordinator Jim Schwartz, who led the Lions to their first victory in two seasons an clearly has instilled a new attitude in the Motor City.

Exhibit B: The Cardinals
Arizona lost Todd Haley when the Chiefs hired the offensive coordinator to be their new head coach, and the Cards fired defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, who then re-joined Haley in KC. The result - the Cards come out of the bye week 1-2 and appear to have some serious problems on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are in total rebuild mode so it's tough four games in to evaluate the success/failure of the former Birds assistants.

Exhibit C: The Jaguars
In 2007, Jacksonville nearly defeated then-unbeaten New England in the playoffs, and my guess is their physical style gave the Giants plenty to prepare for in the subsequent Super Bowl. Assistant Mike Smith becomes the Falcons coach, and thanks to his addition and that of QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner, the Dirty Birds turn it around. The Jags, meanwhile, sank to last in the AFC South with a 5-11 record.

GAMES OF THE WEEK
We have a couple of what I like to call "sort out" games on tap Sunday. First, Atlanta (2-1) travels to San Francisco (3-1), second, New England (3-1) visits Denver (4-0) and finally Cincinnati (3-1) travels to Baltimore (3-1).

The Falcons appear to be a much better indoors team than outdoors team, and in their loss to the Patriots in Week 3 New England played them physically. That is the formula I expect San Francisco to once again embrace. A loss would drop the Falcons two games behind the Saints in the NFC South, an intraconference loss could haunt the Birds in tiebreaker scenarios. The 49ers can solidify their hold on what again appears to be a very weak NFC West.

Are the Broncos for real? We'll know for sure this week. After a diet of Cincinnati (which appears decent at 3-1), Cleveland (0-4), Oakland (1-3) and Dallas (shaky 2-2), the Patriots come to town fresh off two consecutive triumphs over previously undefeated teams (Atlanta and Baltimore). Denver's defense has been thoroughly impressive, and I think they could give the Patriots a lot of problems. New England also won't have injured RB Fred Taylor, who has appeared to be their steadiest option in the ground game. But can the Broncos score any points against New England?

I'm not surprised Baltimore and Cincinnati are 3-1. Joe Flacco's progression in his second season has been impressive (kudos to coach John Harbaugh and coordinator Cam Cameron) for the Ravens, and the return of Carson Palmer at QB has helped balance the Bengals' offense a bit more. We know Baltimore has a terrific defense, but Cincinnati has quietly built a sturdy one as well. When was the last time this game was for the NFC North lead?

Many of the other games this week appear to be mismatches, but I'm sure there will be at least one surprise. I could see Dallas stumbling at Kansas City or the unbeaten Colts losing at Tennessee. Should the Titans lose, their season would effectively be over at 0-5. A lot depends on the health of the Titans secondary.

TOP FIVE
1. New Orleans (4-0) - Life's a Brees when you have a bye
2. Indianapolis (4-0) - I don't doubt Peyton Manning no matter how many injuries the Colts have
3. N.Y. Giants (4-0) - Battling through a ton of injuries, but the one to Eli could be costly
4. Minnesota (4-0) - As much as I hate to admit it, if this team fixes a few things look out
5. Denver (4-0) - That's D as in Denver
(I know the four unbeaten teams, it's lame). Others receiving votes: New England (3-1), Chicago (3-1), Baltimore (3-1), Philadelphia (2-1), Atlanta (2-1)

BOTTOM FIVE
32. Cleveland (0-4) - It doesn't matter who the QB is, who will he throw to?
31. St. Louis (0-4) - Just bad in all three phases of the game, and undisciplined on top of it.
30. Kansas City (0-4) - They could regret giving Cassel that longterm contract so quickly
29. Tampa Bay (0-4) - Showed a pulse vs. the Redskins
28. Oakland (1-3) - Commitment to ineptitude continues
Others receiving votes: Carolina (0-3), Tennessee (0-4), Seattle (1-3), Washington (2-2)

Week 4 Review

2009-10-04T18:32:00.000-07:00

Say this for the New England Patriots, they are tough to beat at home.

For the second consecutive week the Pats knocked off an undefeated team in Foxboro, Mass. Last week it was the Atlanta Falcons, this week the Baltimore Ravens. New England also regained a share of first place in the AFC East when the New York Jets fell at New Orleans.

However, the Pats were "this close" to possibly losing thanks to a costly fourth-down drop inside the 10 by Ravens receiver Mark Clayton. And despite the two home victories, New England could not run the ball against Baltimore and QB Tom Brady was good, but not great, although he did spread the ball around to nine different receivers.

Losses by the Jets and Ravens left just five teams undefeated (Indianapolis, Denver, New York Giants, New Orleans and Minnesota - which plays Green Bay in the Brett Favre Bowl on Monday night).

Oh Yeahs
Of those unbeaten teams, is there one that stands out to you? How about surprises you?

There are several who surprise me, starting with Denver. I was ready to use the weak opponent argument against the Broncos, but they've handed the surprising Bengals their only loss and Dallas is not a pushover. But the surprise of surprises? 26, as in just 26 points allowed ... for the season.

For all of the controversy the Broncos endured over rookie Coach Josh McDaniels' courtship of Matt Cassel, the Jay Cutler trade and the Brandon Marshall preseason suspension, it's the defense that has carried the day. With the San Diego Chargers banged up at 2-2 and sinking like a rock in the AFC West, the Broncos probably could go .500 the rest of the way and win the division. ...

I'm not surprised the Vikings are unbeaten (easy schedule), nor the Giants (just plain good), nor am I the Colts are (I will not doubt Payton Manning). The Saints are a mild surprise to me because they've knocked off tough Philadelphia (road) and Jets (home) squads. But the Broncos - that's one that I (and many others didn't see coming).

Oh no's
There also are six winless teams and seven more that are 1-2 or 1-3. That's 13 teams who have a very tough road to making the playoffs. Is parity dead?

The winless include: St. Louis, Cleveland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Carolina and Tennessee. None of the first four surprise me, but I expected more from Carolina, which appears out of sync on offense and susceptible to the run on defense. And I fully expected Tennessee to contend for the AFC South title. Already trailing the Colts by four games, the Titans can forget that and focus on a wild-card berth, or maybe just winning a game! Most shocking about Tennessee's fall? The defense, which has given up the fifth-most points.

Week 3 review, part 1

2009-09-27T20:19:00.000-07:00

Some random thoughts about Week 3 through Sunday night's game.

Was Super Bowl 43 a fluke? Of course that's an exaggeration, but both the Steelers and the Cardinals are 1-2 and looking nothing like postseason powerhouses.

Two weeks in a row the Steelers have had the tables turned on them after their dramatic Week 1 OT win. First the Bears marched down the field to beat the Steelers, then the Bengals did on Sunday.

Some commentators have pointed out that the Steelers' slide coincides with safety Troy Polamalu's injury, but Polamalu was hurt midway through the Week 1 game vs. the Titans and Pittsburgh managed to win that one.

Arizona has lost twice at home, including Sunday night's beatdown at the hands of the Colts, and nothing appears to be working for the Cardinals right now. Most alarming for Cards fans has to be Kurt Warner's statue-esque pocket poses. The veteran QB, who was unconscious in Week 2, absorbed numerous hits and sacks vs. the Colts' fleet front line. And against a banged-up Colts secondary This is a very bad sign for the birds heading into their bye week.

Road warriors: How good are the Colts? They come back to beat the Dolphins on Monday night in Miami - a game that saw the Dolphins win the time of possession battle by a 3-to-1 margin - then return to the road three time zones west and drill the Cardinals.

Turn back the clock: In an online column in another location (which I hopefully can reveal this week) I predicted this might be the week the Vikings needed Brett Favre to step up. Step up he did. Favre passed for more than 300 yards and threw a game-winning dart to Greg Lewis in the final seconds to lift Minnesota over San Francisco.

Remember the roar: December 2007. 21 months ago. Until Sunday, that was the most recent time the Lions had won a football game. Detroit held off a reeling Redskins team to win for the first time in 20 games. Much was made of it being the first career NFL victory for Matthew Stafford and Coach Jim Schwartz. But it's also the first NFL win for Detroit's second-year players, like running back Kevin Smith, who was a key to the Lions win.

2008 playoff teams in big trouble: In addition to the Steelers and Cardinals at 1-2, AFC division winners Miami and Tennessee are 0-3.

Fashion police: So whose idea was it to dress the Seahawks like those Popsicles that everyone leaves in the bottom of the box because they're not sure what flavor they are? Seattle's lime green jerseys are undoubtedly the worst NFL jersey I've ever seen in four decades of NFL watching.

TOP FIVE
1. NY Jets (3-0) They have smacked around New England and Tennessee (which won 24 games combined last season) in consecutive weeks
2. New Orleans (3-0) Won the second of back-to-back road games with defense and a ground game, which is a scary thought
3. Indianapolis (3-0) Who says Peyton Manning doesn't have enough weapons?
4. NY Giants (3-0) Dominating despite injuries
5. Baltimore (3-0) Feasting on cupcakes

Also receiving votes: Minnesota, Philadelphia, New England

BOTTOM FIVE
28. Washington (1-2) It could get ugly in the nation's capital after the Lions won for the first time in 20 games at the Redskins' expense
29. Kansas City (0-3) After a promising first game, the Chiefs have regressed more each week
30. St. Louis (0-3) Rams offense showed a pulse once Kyle Boller came in at QB
31. Tampa Bay (0-3) Five first downs - the entire game - vs. a banged-up Giants team
32. Cleveland (0-3) Point differential after three games? 66 points

Also receiving votes: Miami, Tennessee, Houston, Carolina (all of which I though could be playoff teams)

2009 NFL Week 2 preview

2009-09-19T13:56:00.000-07:00

There weren't many surprises in Week 1 of the NFL season, but I expect there to be several this week. There are a number of enticing match-ups, including:

Carolina at Atlanta
New England at the NY Jets
Oakland at Kansas City
NY Giants at Dallas
Seattle at San Francisco
Indianapolis at Miami
New Orleans at Philadelphia
Baltimore at San Diego
Pittsburgh at Chicago

The common thread with the first five is they all are divisional matchups. The next three are intra-conference games that likely will have bearing on the playoff picture, and the final game matches two franchises with passionate followings and high expectations.

The intra-division clashes

Carolina at Atlanta - Was last week's meltdown at home vs.the Eagles a sign of things to come for the Panthers or a factor of five turnovers? The Falcons capitalized on four uncharacteristic Dolphins turnovers last week. Atlanta can establish itself as the South's front-runner with a win here, while a Panthers loss would raise more questions.
New England at the NY Jets - Let the smack talk flow. The Jets made a strong opening statement at Houston last week, while the Patriots looked mortal vs. the Bills. New England's defense absorbed another hit when LB Jerod Mayo suffered a knee injury. Can the Jets slow the Patriots' passing attack? That's a key question, the answer to which will help determine the AFC East's early leader.
Oakland at Kansas City - Two 0-1 teams? Important game? Yes. Both looked surprisingly good in Week 1 losses, and both could have pulled off upsets. (I think both will as the season progresses) How QBs JaMarcus Russell of the Raiders and Matt Cassell (making his Chiefs debut) play are key. One of these teams can keep itself in the AFC West conversation.
NY Giants at Dallas - The House That Jerry Built opens, and the schedule makers didn't do Jones or his Cowboys any favors by bringing the Giants to town. I'm curious how the Cowboys offense will do against a much stiffer defense this week.
Seattle at San Francisco - The 49ers might be for real. They took the Cardinals apart in Arizona, and the could do the same in their home opener. Tough to get a read on the Seahawks. They played good, but not great, against the Rams last week. Seattle needs to establish its ground game, something Arizona couldn't or wouldn't do.

The Intra-Conference battles

New Orleans at Philadelphia - Put Donovan McNabb under center for the Eagles, and I think they would win. However, he's out. Fortunately for Kevin Kolb, the Saints don't have much of a pass rush. Philly's defense played well vs. Carolina in forcing five turnovers, but the Saints have far more firepower than the Panthers. That's the matchup to watch.
Baltimore at San Diego - I think these are two teams with a lot to prove. Baltimore's offense impressed vs. the Chiefs, but it's defense clearly was not itself and let the Chiefs stay in their game. The Chargers could have (and probably should have) lost at Oakland. The Bolts' offensive line and backfield are banged up.
Indianapolis at Miami - The Dolphins committed a very uncharacteristic four turnovers in losing at Atlanta, while the Colts did what they needed to to beat the Jaguars at home. Neither were impressive. A Miami loss will put it two games back of either the Jets or Patriots. The Colts need someone not named Reggie Wayne to step up in the passing game.

And finally ...
The three of the past four seasons have featured either Pittsburgh or Chicago in the Super Bowl. The Bears are stinging from a road loss to the rival Packers, while the Steelers are stinging from a physical overtime win over the Titans on opening night. So this should be another black and blue game, right? Not necessarily. The Steelers had a 2-1 pass to run ratio (47-23) in their opener, while the Bears had 38 passes and 31 rushes. Which team will generate more pressure and have better coverage?

Week 1 Rewind

2009-09-16T08:47:00.000-07:00

First things first about Week 1 of the NFL season ...

We can speculate all we want to during the offseason, and the preseason for that matter, about how much better/worse/healthier/softer/etc. someone or some team appears. None of that matters until the games matter.

Case in point - many anointed Chicago and Green Bay as Super Bowl contenders after the Bears acquired quarterback Jay Cutler and the Packers steamrolled everyone in sight. What many conveniently forgot is Cutler threw 18 interceptions last season while throwing to a far more talented group of receivers than he has in Chicago. Meanwhile, we should have listened to Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt's comments after his team lost in the preseason to the Packers. The Cards coach said, in effect, that his defense hadn't game-planned for the Packers, who obviously had done just the opposite. So of course the Packers looked unstoppable.

Repeat, nothing matters until the games start to matter.

Week 1 surprise teams
The Good - The Raiders have a pulse! Oakland played physical defense and might have more talent on offense than some realize. Really liked rookie WR Louis Murphy. ... The Chiefs, while clearly less talented than the Ravens, could have won that game at Baltimore. It says here that Todd Haley had a lot more to do with Arizona's success last season than has been reported. ... The Jets started a rookie QB in Mark Sanchez and had two starters in their front seven suspended and they dominated the Texans in Houston. ... The Eagles overpowered the Panthers in every phase of the game. I had questions about the Philly defense after defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's passing, the free-agent exodus of safety Brian Dawkins and the season-ending injury to middle linebacker Stewart Bradley. I have a lot fewer questions now. ... The Bengals, boosted by a vastly improved defense, should have defeated the Broncos.

The Bad - The Panthers looked lost, aside from one sustained drive early in the game, in getting hammered by the Eagles. I think I will regret picking them to win the NFC South. ... The Chargers appear - again - as if they're only going to play as well as they think they need to. I suspect they're going to lose more games this season than they should if that is not corrected. ... The Dolphins, another team I liked going into this season, did exactly what they didn't do last season - commit turnovers and penalties by the bushel full. With a tougher schedule, Miami could take a huge step back if that isn't fixed. ... The Cardinals got the 49ers' best shot, and they couldn't recover. Losing a home opener to a division rival is damaging on several levels.

The good news? It's just one week of 17.

Top 5 Teams
1. Pittsburgh - Give Big Ben the ball and 2 minutes and you'll pay.
2. NY Giants - They won't be the most exciting team to watch, but they won't beat themselves either
3. Philadelphia - The Eagles made a statement, punking the defending NFC South champs on their home turf.
4. New England - All those new defenders have some things to learn.
5. Minnesota - The Vikings won one they should have and appear strong in all phases except kick coverage.

Bottom 5 Teams
32. St. Louis - It's going to be a long season under the Arch
31. Cleveland - Couldn't pass on the Vikings.
30. Detroit - The offense showed some signs of life, but the defense cannot defend the pass.
29. Houston - Thrashed at home
28. Carolina - Really thrashed at home

Key injuries

Eagles QB Donovan McNabb - Not only does this hurt the team's continuity, but think what it does to the discussion about Michael Vick's role.
Bears LB Brian Urlacher - A huge loss for a defense that had some teeth.
Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson - I might regret writing this, but I think he's only the team's second-best back at this point.
Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez - Indy already appeared thin at this position.

Coming up ... the Week 2 Preview on Friday

NFL Week 1 Preview

2009-09-12T16:38:00.000-07:00

OK, so this one is a bit late.

One trend to look for in the early weeks of the season, particularly Week 1, is a lot of high scores and unexpected heroes. Happens every year. Someone, some team will emerge and make the football-viewing world take notice.

We can only hope a majority of Sunday's and Monday's games are as compelling as Thursday night's Steelers victory over the Titans was.

TRIVIA TIME: You probably know Brett Fave surpassed Dan Marino as touchdown pass king two seasons ago. Whom did Marino pass on the NFL career TD pass list? (Answer below, and extra credit if you can name the two teams he played for)

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Philadelphia at Carolina - Two NFC playoff teams who harbor designs on deep postseason runs again. Can the Eagles' defense contain the Panthers' ground attack? Will Carolina have an answer for Donovan McNab and Brian Westbrook?
Miami at Atlanta - Two more playoff teams meet in an intriguing inter-conference matchup. The Dolphins win with defense, while the Falcons' formula leans heavily on a potent offense behind RB Michael Turner and QB Matt Ryan.
Chicago at Green Bay - The Bears' acquisition of QB Jay Cutler and the development of the Packers' young players - especially on offense - have these two teams solidly in the NFC North title discussion. The NFL's oldest rivalry is a clear statement game.

GAMES OF THE WEAK:
What were the league's schedule-makers thinking? Both Monday night games could be blowouts by halftime. Expect San Diego to run wild at Oakland after New England lights up Buffalo. ... St. Louis at Seattle also has the makings of a clunker.

TRIVIA ANSWER: Fran Tarkenton (formerly of the NY Giants and Minnesota Vikings)

Welcome back NFL!

AFC 2009 Predictions

2009-09-12T15:12:00.000-07:00

The AFC has morphed into the NFL's dominant conference this decade, and it features several strong Super Bowl contenders again this season - not the least of which are defending champion Pittsburgh and New England, which eagerly welcomes back quarterback Tom Brady.

Here is a look at each of the AFC's four divisions (*denotes playoff team)

EAST
Predicted order of finish: New England*, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo
Fast fact: Miami LB Jason Taylor needs eight sacks to move into the top 10 all-time in league history
The king: Much has been made of the return of Brady from a knee injury, but a bigger storyline in New England could be the extreme makeover of the defense. DE Richard Seymour, LBs Mike Vrabel, Rosevelt Colvin, Junior Seau and Teddy Bruschi, S Rodney Harrison and CB Ellis Hobbs all are gone. One guess is Coach Bill Belichick ultimately realized his defense needed to get faster (and younger). Remember, too, that the Pats have more high draft choices over the next two seasons than anyone as a result of trades of Seymour, Hobbs, Vrabel and QB Matt Cassell. The Brady-led passing game should be as potent as ever with the addition of WR Joey Galloway and RB Fred Taylor - two veterans itching for a Super Bowl ring.
The others: It says here Miami's rise from worst to first in the East was no fluke. The Dolphins were in the top 15 in the league in both defense and offense. The Chad Pennington-led offense was surprisingly balanced. And RB Ronnie Brown experienced a rebirth, thanks in part to the Wildcat formation. If the pass defense improves, the Dolphins could again hang with the conference's elite. ... The Jets have the potential to be a very good team, but they need a lot of things to come together - one more season from RB Thomas Jones, a quick integration of rookie QB Mark Sanchez into the offense, a receiver to step up, and the defense to take to new coach Rex Ryan's aggressive scheme. The latter shouldn't be a problem, but New York might have some problems scoring points unless some playmakers emerge. ... So the Bills added WR Terrell Owens, fired their offensive coordinator for being too creative in his play calling and completely rebuilt their offensive line, again. Oh, and their best offensive player - RB Marshawn Lynch - is suspended for the first three games. This doesn't sound like a winning formula.

NORTH
Predicted order of finish: Pittsburgh*, Baltimore*, Cincinnati, Cleveland
Fast fact: No team can match the Steelers' six Super Bowl victories.
The king: Pittsburgh can play it any way you want it thanks to a punishing defense, an underrated passing attack, a variety of running backs and a quarterback who appears to be a supersized version of John Elway. Ben Roethlisberger might not always put up the best numbers, but his flair for winning games in the final minutes certainly reminds me of the former Broncos great. The Steelers return largely intact, and it bears remembering that they had to overcome several key injuries last season, so they might be stronger this go around.
The others: I don't see a sophomore slump for Ravens QB Joe Flacco, and I do see a group of running backs that have pushed each other to be better. Much like the Jets, the Ravens need a young receiver to emerge to make Flacco's life a bit easier. The defense again should be stout, although losing coordinator Rex Ryan and LB Bart Scott to the Jets will hurt. The departure of stud offensive lineman Jason Brown didn't get as much attention but is equally important to Flacco and the offense. ... Cincinnati is mentioned as a darkhorse team by many prognosticators, and there are several reasons for this optimism. First, the return of QB Carson Palmer provides a massive upgrade at that position for an offense that ranked 32nd overall in 2008. Second, the defense continues to add players with plenty of upside through the draft (see LB Rey Maualuga). Third, Laveranues Coles isn't as big of a dropoff at WR from TJ Houshmandzadeh. The Bengals will have to run the ball A LOT better to sniff the playoffs. ... So who is the Browns' quarterback? Who will run the ball for Cleveland? Who will stop the run? The Browns' near-playoff berth two seasons ago looks more and more like a fluke. A return to form by WR Braylon Edwards would help the 31st-ranked passing offense, regardless of whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson is throwing to him.

SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Tennessee*, Houston*, Indianapolis, Jacksonville
Fast fact: Colts QB Peyton Manning is fourth all-time in TD passes and needs just 10 more to take over third - behind only Dan Marino and Brett Favre.
The king: The Titans won't catch anyone by surprise this season. Despite the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency, Tennessee's 7th-ranked defense should not fall off much. The ground game is in good hands with RBs Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Tennessee really needs rookie WR Kenny Britt to develops into a No. 1 receiver.
The others: Two consecutive 8-8 seasons and a steady influx of talent have me convinced this is the year for the Texans to finally make the playoffs. The key is keeping QB Matt Schaub healthy. Schaub, who has missed an average of five games the past two seasons, has plenty of targets - WRs Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels and RB Steve Slaton. But Schaub doesn't have a quality backup like Sage Rosenfels this season. Houston has an excellent defensive front and a Pro Bowl middle linebacker in DeMeco Ryans. However, the rest of the back half of the defense could be the team's undoing. ... How will the Colts respond to not having Tony Dungy on the sideline and Marvin Harrison split out on offense? The former, as well as some other coaching staff turnover, is a greater concern at this point. It's tough to bet against QB Peyton Manning, but the Colts' ground game and play vs. the run both were near the bottom of the NFL last season. That is not a formula for reaching the playoffs in 2009. ... The Jaguars aren't particularly awful in any phase of the game, but neither are they outstanding, and that won't get you far in the NFL. A lot is riding on QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew. The defense lacks impact players at this point.

WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Diego*, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City
Fast fact: Another 1,000-yard season for Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson will catapult him to seventh all-time on the NFL career rushing list.
The king: The aforementioned LT is healthy, and so is rush LB Shawn Merriman. The Chargers clearly are the class of a week division, and their offense - behind QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates and RBs Tomlinson and Darren Sproles - should be one of the league's best. Merriman's presence and pass rush makes the entire defense more effective. The evidence? The Chargers' sack total dropped from 42 to 28 and interceptions went from 22 to 8 last season.
The others: The season can't start soon enough for Denver, which improved its chances for having a better ground game by signing LaMont Jordan and Correll Buckhalter and drafting Knowshawn Moreno. That's offset by dealing QB Jay Cutler. The defense ranked in the bottom eight against both the rush and the pass, so there is work to be done. ... The Raiders followed up one of the more baffling drafts in recent memory by cutting the QB (Jeff Garcia) who clearly gave them the best chance to win. JaMarcus Russell would have to make huge strides for Oakland to be competitive. On defense, the Raiders have to improve the NFL's second-worst run defense. ... Two seasons in a row the Chiefs have traded an impact player. Last season it was DE Jared Allen. This past offseason it was TE Tony Gonzalez. The result has been a bunch of extra draft picks and QB Matt Cassell. Kansas City will be very young at most positions.

NFC 2009 Predictions

2009-09-07T18:46:00.000-07:00

Forgive the NFC if it has a bit of an inferiority complex this decade. Since the St. Louis Rams won the Super Bowl in 2000, the AFC has captured seven of the next nine contested this decade, including three by the New England Patriots and two by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Could this be the season the NFC begins to turn the tide? There is plenty of reason for optimism in some corners of the conference, which should feature three very strong divisions this fall.

Here is a look at each of the NFC's four divisions (*indicates playoff team):

EAST
Predicted order of finish: *NY Giants, *Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington
Fast fact: America's Team has not won a playoff game in the 21st Century
The king: The Giants simply are the toughest team in a very tough division. Outside of wide receiver, they are above average at every other position group, and terrific on the lines.
The others: There are significant ones for each of the other three teams. Philadelphia retooled its offensive line, but how well will it gel? Does having QB Michael Vick on the roster help or upset Donovan McNabb? Who replaces rising star MLB Stewart Bradley, who will miss the season due to injury? If the Eagles can answer these questions in the positive, they have the talent to go the distance. ... Dallas figures to have a good to very good defense, but it needs QB Tony Romo and RB Marion Barber to be more productive down the stretch. Romo's trend has been to play well when the games don't count as much then fade in December. How will he fare without Terrell Owens? Barber's numbers have declined the past two seasons significantly. RB Felix Jones' return from injury will help. ... Washington has a lot of holes, particularly on the offensive line and in the secondary. The former is very problematic in this division. One has to wonder how QB Jason Campbell, who is not under contract for 2010, will respond in light of the team's pursuit of Jay Cutler then Mark Sanchez in the offseason.
Bottom line: The Eagles proved last season they can beat the Giants, and given that they are more talented this season, it would not surprise to see them win the East.

NORTH
Predicted order of finish: *Minnesota, *Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit
Fast fact: The Packers' Aaron Rodgers is the only returning starting quarterback in the division
The king: Minnesota will run the ball and stop the run, as it always does. Can Brett Favre make a difference at QB? He might just enough to hold off his former team, but unless Favre has improved targets to throw to, it's hard to see the Vikings going all the way. One thing to watch will be team chemistry.
The others: Green Bay's offense should score almost at will if RB Ryan Grant plays more like the 2007 version than the 2008 one. Early returns on the Packers' new 3-4 defense are positive, and many personnel people have said it's only a question of how the d-line holds up because Green Bay has the athletes in its back eight. ... Chicago's defense has underachieved since its Super Bowl run three seasons ago, and it might be time to admit it's getting old in some places. Aside from LB Lance Briggs, the play of the Bears' other elite defenders (DT Tommie Harris, LB Brian Urlacher, CBs Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman) has slipped due to age, injury or indifference. QB Jay Cutler will make everyone, especially RB Matt Forte and TEs Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen, better. ... Detroit has begun (again) a long rebuilding process. The Lions did a decent job drafting and in free agency, but they still have many holes along their lines. WR Calvin Johnson and RB Kevin Smith are legit, and if either Matthew Stafford and Daunte Culpepper works out at QB, Detroit could be entertaining if not victorious from time to time.
Bottom line: Minnesota's defense is the best in the division, and that's why the Vikings will win it by a game over the Packers, who will be a dangerous team.

SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Carolina*, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
Fast fact: The Panthers will try to become the first team to repeat as division champ since the NFL realigned to eight four-team divisions
The king: Is Carolina as good as it appeared at times last season (very) or as awful as it looked in losing to Arizona in the playoffs when Jake Delhomme seemingly completed more passes to the Cardinals than the Panthers. I think it's the former. If Delhomme bounces back, he has an elite receiver in Steve Smith to throw to and an elite running back in DeAngelo Williams to hand off to. The o-line is very good, and the back seven on defense also are very good. The only question is can the defensive line (read Julius Peppers) generate more pressure this season?
The others: The Saints are a trendy pick to win the South, and their Drew Brees-led offense provides plenty of ammunition for that assertion. However, their defense still isn't championship quality, and for all of the recognition new coordinator Gregg Williams has heaped on him, he brings a complex scheme. That and the host of new parts will take some time to adjust to. ... The Falcons were a surprise last season, but I wonder how they will respond now that teams have a year's worth of film on QB Matt Ryan. Obtaining TE Tony Gonzalez was genius, but the defense still has a lot of holes. A very similar situation as New Orleans. ... Tampa Bay changed coaches and waved good-bye to a lot of veterans. However, the Bucs have quite a bit of talent on offense, and if their QB situation is settled, they could surprise those who don't expect much. Losing defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and cutting LB Derrick Brooks won't help the defense.
Bottom line: Any team could win this division, including Tampa Bay, but Carolina has the fewest holes.

WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Francisco*, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
The king: Staying with the tough teams win theory, the 49ers have a clear advantage in that department, from coach Mike Singletary on down. San Francisco has an excellent 1-2 punch in RBs Frank Gore and Glen Coffee, and an underrated QB in Shaun Hill. The defense has talent, especially LB Patrick Willis and CB Nate Clements. If the high draft picks in the front seven play up to their capabilities, the 49ers will be much tougher than expected.
The others: Was Arizona's Super Bowl run a fluke? Maybe not. The Cardinals have a lot of talent and QB Kurt Warner and WR Larry Fitzgerald were unstoppable in the playoffs. Arizona has more issues on offense than you might think, namely can it run the ball, can Warner stay healthy and can WR Anquan Boldin stay happy? The defense has some studs in DT Darnell Dockett, LB Carlos Dansby, CB D-R Cromartie and S Adrian Wilson. But they also were in the lower third of the league in pass defense and only average vs. the run. ... Seattle is a team on the decline, with an aging offense, and a defense that took some steps back last season, both individually and collectively. The Seahawks were racked by injuries in 2008, and the thinking goes that can't possibly happen again. But part of that is a product of wear and tear on the veterans. The odd coach-in-waiting scenario also didn't help. Have the Seahawks improved the 5-6 wins it will take to win the division? I don't think they have. ... St. Louis should have a harder edge to it this season, but the Rams, who have some talented individuals, don't have enough across the board talent to contend yet.
Bottom line: San Francisco is the pick because this is a division where the power game should work especially well. However, Arizona could win the division again. But really, that's not saying a lot.

2008 NFL Rewind

2009-06-10T18:50:00.000-07:00

There are roughly five weeks to go before NFL training camps open. Organized Team Activities and Mini-camps are wrapping. The NFL is about to go into its rest period (all one month of it).

Before I begin my annual preview, I wanted to revisit my predictions and those of three other sources I used - Pro Football Weekly, The Sporting News and Sports Illustrated.

The actual results were as follows (*-denotes playoff teams)
NFC
East - N.Y. Giants*, Philadelphia*, Dallas, Washington
North - Minnesota*, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit
South - Carolina*, Atlanta*, Tampa Bay, New Orleans
West - Arizona*, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis
AFC
East - Miami*, New England, N.Y. Jets, Buffalo
North - Pittsburgh*, Baltimore*, Cincinnati, Cleveland
South - Tennessee*, Indianapolis*, Houston, Jacksonville
West - San Diego*, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City

How did I fare? I hit .500 on playoff teams.
In the NFC I correctly picked three of the six playoff teams (Minnesota, the Giants and Philly) and only one division winner (Minnesota). In the AFC, I also picked three playoff teams (Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and San Diego) and got two division winners correct (the Steelers and Chargers).
Where I missed: I had Dallas, New Orleans and Seattle winning NFC divisions, and New England and Jacksonville winning AFC divisions. Dallas disappointed a lot of prognosticators, the Jaguars had no offense, the Saints no defense, and the Patriots and Seahawks lost their starting QBs for much of the season.
In summary: I played it safe and had an average season.

How did PFW fare? Horrible.
The PFW boys picked just one division winner correctly (San Diego). Like me, they picked Miami and Baltimore last in their divisions, but compounded that by putting AFC top seed Tennesse in last place as well. New England, Indy and Dallas were logical division-winning picks, but Cleveland, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle all cratered.

How did the then-new combination of Sporting News and Street and Smith's far? Only slightly better.
The TSN/S&S tag team got two of eight division winners correct (Pittsburgh and San Diego). Their staff had the same four teams winning NFC Divisions (Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle) that PFW did, as well as New England and Indy in the AFC. Sensing a trend here?

How did SI fare? Better than their print brethren, hitting three of eight division winners (Pittsburgh, San Diego and Minnesota), same as yours truly.
Minuses for having Atlanta and Miami in last, but they weren't alone in that. But a plus for picking Arizona to finish second in the NFC West.

We've established 2008 was truly an unpredictable season, what will 2009 hold?

Another Super storyline

2009-01-22T10:42:00.000-08:00

Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm were two of Bill Cowher's top lieutenants when he was coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both interviewed for Cowher's job when he retired after the 2006 season.

Neither got it, and now both are architects of the Arizona Cardinals' rise to NFC champions.

As you know the Steelers, and the man who was selected to replace Cowher, Mike Tomlin, will be their opponent in Super Bowl 43.

All of the above are pros, and it would be a shocker if any of them made a big deal out of this in the remaining 10 days leading up to the game (they do have more pressing work after all).

On a macro level, their success increases expectations on ALL NFL coaches. These are second-year coaches who followed tough acts - in Tomlin's case a revered leader, and in Whisenhunt's case a franchise that has done virtually nothing since the conclusion of World War II.

Super Bowl pits tradition vs. parity

2009-01-21T10:33:00.000-08:00

The Arizona Cardinals are evidence that the NFL is getting what it wants - parity.

How many of you had the Redbirds going to the Super Bowl, much less winning the relatively weak NFC West? I didn't.

The Cardinals dis-spelled two popular notions about playoff teams.

First, teams that finish the regular season crawling to the finish line have no shot in the playoffs. Arizona didn't just lose, it was getting blown out, including a loss at Philadelphia on Thanksgiving night.

Second, teams that play wild-card weekend will be too worn out by the time the conference championship game arrives. This theory has been disproven in recent years by the Colts and Steelers, but it still exists in the minds of some. Of course the Eagles also played in the first three rounds of the playoffs as well, and they needed a near miraculous combination of events on Week 17 to reach the postseason.

So these desert upstarts have reached the Big Game, but how? Coaching and a veteran quarterback. The Cardinals were a step ahead of the Eagles most of Sunday's game, and Kurt Warner was unflappable.

The Steelers, on the other hand, reach the Super Bowl for the second time in four years. They were a fashionable pick to go this far, and with good reason. Their defense was outstanding, and they scored just enough to survive a brutal schedule. The AFC Championship game vs. Baltimore was one of the most physically punishing games I can remember seeing. One gets the impression that the playoffs started in Pittsburgh long before the postseason did.

One other thought on what this matchup means. In an offseason in which the coaching carousel turns faster and faster, the pressure on coaches will be higher than ever. Both Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin and Arizona's Ken Whisenhunt are in just their second seasons, giving more ammunition to fans, front offices and owners that win-now is a reality.

Catching up on the NFL Season

2008-11-18T18:04:00.000-08:00

Yeah, I know. It's been a while. All I can say is hockey happens! Lots of stuff transpiring since hockey season started, but the NFL season is getting interesting so it's time to get back on this horse, too.

A few observations with six weeks to go in the regular season:

Defense wins.
Exhibit A - Titans, Tennessee.
Exhibit B - Giants, New York.

The reason these two teams appear to be the best in the league right now is they are equally adept at stopping the run and the pass.

Don't be fooled by these teams:
1. Baltimore - the Ravens face three more NFC East teams down the stretch plus Pittsburgh again. 9-7 would be a great finish for the Ravens.
2. N.Y. Jets - Much is made of the Jets' improved defense, but in reality, they've had an easy schedule and thus have been able to overcome numerous turnovers on offense.
3. New Orleans - the preseason NFC South pick, the Saints can't stop anyone and are inconsisent running the ball. Their division has improved but they've regressed. I don't think they'll win eight games.
4. San Diego - It's tough for me to think of a more disappointing team than the Chargers. Playing in one of the two worst divisions in football, they are 4-6. The talent is there, but they can't seem to sustain drives when they need to or get defensive stops at key junctures.

Watch out down the stretch for these teams:
1. Indianapolis - the Colts are getting healthy and have won three in a row. Their schedule down the stretch is easy. Unfortunately for them they're playing for a wild-card spot.
2. Green Bay - Yes, I'm a homer, but if the Packers play as they did Sunday when they wiped out the Bears, they will win the NFC North and maybe a playoff game.
3. Dallas - Yup, I'm still on their bandwagon. This is a team with too much talent not to be a factor. In fact, I would not be shocked if they face the Giants at some point in the playoffs.
4. Pittsburgh - Sure the Steelers are leading the AFC North, but the worst part of their schedule is over and they're still standing. If they are remotely healthy, they are the biggest threat to the Titans in the AFC.

A bad year to be from California:
Three coaching changes at mid-stream - Raiders, 49ers and Rams. Turn back the clock to not too long ago, and all three teams were Golden State residents. The fourth team? The Chargers, whose coach, Norv Turner, is not making many points to stay beyond this season.

More to come.

2008 NFL Week 4 preview

2008-09-26T09:15:00.000-07:00

What does the firing of a general manager three weeks into a season really accomplish?

Yes, Matt Millen's record as Detroit Lions GM was terrible, both on and off the field. But at this point in the season the scouting process for the 2009 draft is just underway, free agency and contracts aren't really in the picture.

Sure it's a PR move by a team desperate for some positive press, but why wasn't this done in the offseason?

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Washington (2-1) at Dallas (3-0): The Cowboys ran the ball and pressured the quarterback impressively at Green Bay on Sunday night. If the Redskins can't stop the run and protect QB Jason Campbell, they're in for a long day. But if Washington can do both of those things, it has a chance in this rivalry game. DE Jason Taylor's injury comes at a bad time for the Redskins. The pick: Dallas

Green Bay (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1): How well will the Packers bounce back from their loss to Dallas? And can they pressure QB Brian Griese enough to compensate for their decimated secondary (three starters out). Griese threw for more than 400 yards against a much better secondary last week, so it's not hard to predict the route the Bucs will go. The Packers have to run the ball well to have a chance. The pick: Tampa in a high-scoring game.

Baltimore (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-1): The AFC Central is there for the taking for these two teams, both of which have some serious holes. The Ravens have no passing game and the Steelers can't pass block. Pittsburgh will be without RB Willie Parker, which really hurts, and it was dominated by a physical Philadelphia team last week. This week it plays a team coached by a former Eagles assistant. The pick: Baltimore keeps it going in a very low-scoring game.

GAMES OF THE WEAK (and there are plenty):

Cleveland (0-3) at Cincinnati (0-3): Someone has to win. It's mind-boggling that two teams with so much talent on offense are doing so little with it.

Houston (0-2) at Jacksonville (1-2): Expect the Jaguars to start rolling after last week's win at Indianapolis.

Buffalo (3-0) at St. Louis (0-3): A trap game for the Bills? I don't think they can take anything for granted after needing last-minute rallies to win the past few weeks. Rams' lack of offense also surprises me.

Denver (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3): Unless Larry Johnson runs for 300 yards for the Chiefs, this could get ugly in a hurry.

San Diego (1-2) at Oakland (1-2): A sloppy team meets one with that regularly experiences brain lock. Neither has played near its talent level yet.

2008 record: 6-0

NFL 2008: Week 3 Rewind

2008-09-23T08:57:00.000-07:00

How much stock should we put into fast and slow starts by certain teams after just three weeks? There certainly are no lack of suprises thus far.

The Elite (or at least the leaders)
There is no question in my mind now that the NFC East is by far the best division in football. Overall record: 10-2. Dallas, Philadelphia and the Giants are the three best teams in the NFC, and Washington isn't too far behind. ... The AFC has what could mildly be termed as surprise teams leading each Division (Denver, Tennessee, Baltimore and Buffalo). Keep in mind, however, Tennessee was a playoff team in 2007 and Buffalo was the team they beat out. Denver apparently has returned to its AFL roots and decided to try to outscore each opponent, while Baltimore is riding its defense to its strong start.

Home curse
I wonder if losses to Chicago and Jacksonville in the first two games there have dampened the enthusiasm for the Colts' new stadium.

O no
Can there be a more disappointed state of NFL fans than those in Ohio, where Cleveland and Cincinnati are both 0-3? The offenses of both clubs have inexplicably gone MIA. The good news is one of them should get a victory Sunday. They meet in Cincinnati.

State of Misery
It's tough to say they're more disappointed in Missouri, where expectations couldn't have been real high for Kansas City and St. Louis ... but this is bordering on ridiculous. The Chiefs and Rams might be the two worst teams in the NFL. The Rams have the NFL's worst defense and second-worst offense (how does that happen with RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc Bulger and WR Torry Holt?) and have been blown out three weeks in a row. And the rebuilding Chiefs have the third-worst offense. At least their young defense is keeping them in some games.

Good byes
Bye weeks start this week with six teams taking a break. The update on each follows.
Indianapolis - The Colts need a week off to heal an early season rash of injuries, particularly on the offensive line. A 1-2 start definitely was not part of the plan, and it could easily be 0-3.
Miami - The Dolphins are coming off a thrashing of the Patriots and have to feel better about themselves after starting with two duds. Still, there is a ways to go in Miami.
New England - The Patriots aren't going to be the offensive juggernaut they were last season, but who knew the defense would be such a problem? Still, I expect them to iron things out during their down time.
Seattle - I don't think Coach Mike Holmgren had planned on a 1-2 start, but then when you have six receivers injured, it's tough to win. More alarming should be the defense's disappearing act.
NY Giants - I can't wait until they play the Eagles and the Cowboys. The champs are playing like it.
Detroit - Good thing the Rams are in the NFC or I would write the Lions are the worst team in the conference. They have overpaid for older free agents so their defense isn't any better, and their offense - particularly QB Jon Kitna - continues to make mistake after mistake to take them out of games.

NFL 2008: Week 2 forecast

2008-09-13T22:04:00.000-07:00

What are we to make of the AFC? If the pundits are to be believed, all of the favorites - San Diego, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and even New England - are doomed.

Not so fast.

Yes, the Patriots have lost QB Tom Brady for the season, but they have the rest of a championship-caliber team in place. Yes, Chargers Pro Bowl LB Shawn Merriman decided to have knee surgery and will miss the season. Yes, the offensive lines of the Colts and Jaguars are battered, with Jacksonville losing both of its starting guard for the season.

But as we used to say in the newspaper business as deadline approached: "It's early."

I would hesitate to rule any of those four teams out.

ROOKIE DAY
Can it get much better in Atlanta and Baltimore? Not only did rookie QBs Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco win their debuts, but they did so under the guidance of first-year coaches Mike Smith and John Harbaugh. As bad as things were for both franchises last season (awful in Atlanta and disappointing in Baltimore), Week 1 offered hope.

GAMES OF THE WEEK
New England (1-0) at N.Y. Jets (1-0): The Jets are suddenly a fashionable pick to win the AFC East behind QB Brett Favre and an improved pass rush. Not so fast. If there is one team Coach Bill Belichick will ahve the Patriots up for, it is the Jets, who started the Spygate controversy last season. The pick: Patriots.

Chicago (1-0) at Carolina (1-0): Two teams who scored road upsets in Week 1 square off in Charlotte. The Bears road rookie RB Matt Forte's rushing and a stout defense to a surprisingly easy victory over the Colts. QB Jake Delhomme, meanwhile, might have gotten a bionic arm when he underwent season-ending elbow surgery last season. Delhomme led the Panthers to a stunning upset of the Chargers without suspended WR Steve Smith. This will be a physical game, but Delhomme again will be the difference. The pick: Panthers.

Philadelphia (1-0) at Dallas (1-0): Two NFC East teams coming off blowout victories square off in Big D. The Cowboys' rout of the Browns was more impressive than the Eagles' walkover against the Rams. QB Donovan McNabb appears to be back at a Pro Bowl level, and the Eagles have upgraded their team speed. The Eagles' secondary matches up well with the Cowboys' passing game, so if they can slow RB Marion Barber, who has bruised ribs, I like the visitors. The pick: Eagles.

GAMES OF THE WEAK:
N.Y. Giants (1-0) at St. Louis (0-1): The Giants played like the champs in their opening victory against Washington. The Rams played like they're going to draft first overall again in getting drilled by the Eagles.

Oakland (0-1) at Kansas City (0-1): Someone has to win, right? The Chiefs played the Patriots tougher than many expected last week, but Brady's injury had something to do with that. The Raiders again rolled over for the Broncos.

PICK RECORDS
Last week: 3-0
Season: 3-0

NFL 2008: Week 1 forecast

2008-09-05T11:08:00.000-07:00

What to look for in Week 1 of the NFL season? High scores.

Offenses typically have the element of surprise the first 2-3 weeks of the season. Once defenses get current film, scoring levels off. I expect this season to be no exception, particularly with the amount of players who sat out significant portions of the preseason.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Dallas at Cleveland: Are the Browns ready for national TV? A fashionable pick to advance into the playoffs, the Browns begin a rough schedule with a stern test. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have fortified their lineup with LB Zach Thomas and CB Adam Jones in addition to rookie RB Felix Jones in order to make a Super Bowl run. The key matchup will be can the Browns' upgraded defensive line stop RB Marion Barber and pressure QB Tony Romo. If so, this will be interesting. If not, Dallas will win going away. The pick: Cowboys win a tough one on the road.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Last year's NFC South champion visits the favorite to win it this season. The Saints, who were briefly displaced by Hurricane Gustav, should have added incentive to not repeat 2007's 0-4 start. It's easy to discount the Bucs, who are not a flashy team, but this will be stiff test for the Saints, who rate a big edge in offensive firepower. The pick: the Saints.

NY Jets at Miami: The Jets' old QB - Chad Pennington - faces their new one - Brett Favre (that still doesn't sound right). New York acted in free agency like a team that expects play deep into the playoffs (and that was before obtaining Favre last month). The Dolphins acted like a team starting over. Miami will be better this season, but not on this day. The pick: The Jets.

GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
Minnesota at Green Bay: The first half of the Monday doubleheader features someone other than Favre starting at quarterback for the Packers for the first time since September 1992. That would be Aaron Rodgers, whom you might have read about this summer. Expect the Vikings to bring pressure from all angles because the Packers feature an elite receiving core.

Houston at Pittsburgh: The Texans believe they're close to being a playoff team. The Steelers perennially are one. This could be a meaningful tie-breaker game at season's end in the tight AFC.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Detroit at Atlanta: These will be two of the worst teams in the NFL. Mark it down.

Kansas City at New England: The Chiefs are rebuilding. The Patriots are mad ... and extremely talented. Not a good combination for KC.

NFL 2008: NFC predictions

2008-09-01T19:29:00.000-07:00

This is the second part of my regular-season predictions for the 2008 NFL season. We'll revisit these at the season's end.

NFC East
Overview: As if 13 Pro Bowl players wasn't enough, the Cowboys added two more in CB Adam Jones and LB Zach Thomas in the offseason, still Dallas has to win postseason games (plural). Losing 25 sacks due to retirement and injury won't help the Giants' defense, but don't sell the champs short, they could win this division. The Eagles addressed their needs in free agency and the draft, though another target for Donovan McNabb would have really helped. The Redskins could be very fun to watch but age is a factor on both lines.
1. Dallas: QB Tony Romo and Coach Wade Phillips need to break through in the postseason. RB Felix Jones was a great draft pick, but Dallas could use another quality receiver opposite Terrell Owens. There is no question the Cowboys are loaded at every other position.
2. N.Y. Giants: The G-men took a lot of hits on defense, so players such as DEs Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka and a new trio of safeties has to come up big. QB Eli Manning needs WRs Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith to stay healthy, and the bruising running game to pick up where it left off.
3. Philadelphia: The Eagles got younger and faster on defense, so expect defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to release the hounds. QB Donovan McNabb has a lot left in the tank, and he will prove it despite a dearth of receiving options.
4. Washington: A lot of questions in the capital. How will the players adapt to new coach Jim Zorn's system? Can the lines stay healthy? Is QB Jason Campbell fully recovered? Put Washington in any other division in this conference it likely would finish at least second, that's how strong the East is.

NFC North
Overview: This is a bizarre division. It's possible the worst team (Detroit) might have the best quarterback (Jon Kitna). Defense will be the rule of the day as Minnesota, Green Bay and Chicago all could be among the top 10 in the league. The Packers might regret trading Brett Favre and not having an experienced backup if Aaron Rodgers goes down to injury. The Bears need to avoid injuries that decimated their defense last season and get something, anything from their offense. The Lions could be better and have a worse record than last season.
1. Minnesota: You know the story. The Vikings led the league in rushing and rushing defense, but had the worst pass defense and fourth-worst passing game. DE Jared Allen and S Madieu Williams, when he heals, should help the former at least a little. The latter depends on whether QB Tavaris Jackson can limit his errors and make more plays, particularly to high-priced free-agent WR Bernard Berrian, who can stretch defenses but also drops a lot of balls.
2. Green Bay: Last season, the Packers had the second-best passing game. Given the depth and talent of their receiving core, it could be just as good ... if they had a quarterback with more than zero NFL starts. I think Rodgers will do reasonably well, but Brett Favre won games last season for the Packers, who need a full season of Ryan Grant's second-half of 2007 production.
3. Chicago: It's fashionable to blame the lack of production from former starting QB Rex Grossman for the Bears' offensive woes, but the reality was they were 30th in rushing. So rookie Matt Forte is the key for them. Given the secondary was without two starters nearly all season, expect the pass defense to improve.
4. Detroit: The Lions again turned over a significant portion of their roster, and many of the new faces on defense played for coach Rod Marinelli in Tampa Bay. That would have been great three or four years ago. The passing game should be very good if Kitna gets time to throw, but the combination of unproven running backs and a below-average line isn't a good combination.

NFC South
Overview: While the Saints say last season, which featured an 0-4 start after reaching the NFC title game in 2006, was an aberration, their offseason actions say otherwise. They obtained at least six new starters through trades, free agency and the draft. Say what you will about Jon Gruden winning with Tony Dungy's players, but that's no longer accurate. He and Bruce Allen are slowly rebuilding the Bucs from the trenches out. The Panthers' win totals for the past three seasons: 11-8-7. Notice a trend? Things have nowhere to go but up for the Falcons.
1. New Orleans: If RBs Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister are healthy, the Saints are loaded on offense. Drafting DT Sedrick Ellis and adding LBs Jonathon Vilma and Dan Morgan helps the defense. If the secondary is average, the Saints will win a lot more than they lose.
2. Tampa Bay: The Bucs might have the best young offensive line in the game, and their defensive line has the potential to be just as good. The back seven on defense also has young playmakers in LB Barrett Ruud and S Jermaine Phillips and Tanard Jackson. The cautious, ball-control approach on offense worked well last season. Think Ravens East, as long as the offense doesn't screw things up for the defense, the Bucs will be fine.
3. Carolina: As ridiculous as it would have sounded a few years ago, this is probably a make-or-break year for Coach John Fox and several players, DE Julius Peppers to name one. Carolina's offense was predictably sunk when QB Jake Delhomme blew out his throwing elbow, but the defense's falloff, particularly up front, was baffling. Rookie T Jef Otah and RB Jonathon Stewart will have to play prominent roles.
4. Atlanta: The Falcons make no bones about it, they're starting from scratch with a new coach, QB, RB and a few new OL parts. Most of their veteran players were let go in the offseason, and given neither offense nor defense were in the top two-thirds of the NFL, that probably wasn't a bad idea.

NFC West
Overview: The Seahawks are one of the more solid teams in the conference, particularly on defense, they have the division's best quarterback and coach. The Cardinals are a fashionable breakout pick, but I don't see it. If the 49ers aren't better - a lot better - expect another house cleaning by the Bay. The Rams have a lot of holes on defense and on the offensive line, which overshadows a decent group of skill players.
1. Seattle: Say this for the Seahawks, they have been consistently good under Holmgren, making the playoffs the past five seasons. This year should be no different as Seattle has good balance on both sides of the ball. If the running back by committee of Julius Jones, Maurice Morris and TJ Duckett is effective, it will offset injuries to WRs Bobby Engram and Deion Branch. The defense has stars and depth at all three position groups.
2. Arizona: Turnovers and penalties undermined the Cardinals again and again last season. The offense is full of playmakers and the line is improved. The defense has to improve against the pass (it was 28th), and it has the potential to do so with the return of S Adrian Wilson (heel injury), the move of Antrell Rolle to safety and the drafting of CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
3. San Francisco: It doesn't say a lot for former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith that journeyman JT O'Sullivan beat him out in Mike Martz's QB-friendly offense. The NFL's worst offense in 2007, the 49ers have handed the keys to Martz and brought one of his most reliable players in WR Isaac Bruce. RB Frank Gore must stay healthy. The defense gives up a lot of yards, but not as many points as one would assume. It has the personnel to be a lot better.
4. St. Louis: The Rams can't possibly have as many injuries as they had last season, can they? The offense is in good hands with QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson and WR Torry Holt. The defense, however, needs a massive upgrade, and aside from rookie DE Chris Long, didn't get it. Turnovers also were a huge problem.

Playoff teams: Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans, Seattle, N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia or Green Bay

NFL 2008: AFC predictions

2008-08-29T18:18:00.000-07:00

Happy Labor Day weekend. All you NFL widows, enjoy it while you can because the nation's largest TV sport returns Thursday night.

I want to follow my preseason division-by-division breakdowns with my 2008 predictions, which I will revisit at the end of the year and compare with other experts' prognostications.

Each week during the NFL season I will preview a selection of upcoming games, usually on Thursday or Friday, and then recap the weekend's action upon its completion.

Without further ado ... my AFC predictions. Teams are listed in the order of finish with a comment following each.

AFC East
Overview: There is no question in my mind the Patriots will be Super Bowl contenders again, and they've won with less talented teams. I am tempted to place the Bills ahead of the Jets, but I do think Brett Favre and rebuilt lines will help the Jets. The Dolphins could be a very tough opponent by the end of the season.

1. New England: The offense will be unstoppable again, and adding RB LaMont Jordan was a smart move. If the secondary's new parts come together, this team will win 14 or 15 games again.
2. New York Jets: Favre helps, but G Alan Faneca and NT Kris Jenkins help at least as much. They need RB Thomas Jones to have a big year to have a shot at the playoffs.
3. Buffalo: Very good young talent all over the roster. RB Marshawn Lynch is the real deal, but now that the league has the book on QB Trent Edwards I'm curious how he does this season.
4. Miami: The talent level is better, the quarterbacking is way better thanks the Jets' gift of Chad Pennington, and I have a hunch RB Ricky Williams is going to be comeback player of the year.

AFC North
Overview: The Browns are the fashionable pick, but I wouldn't be stunned if they finish in third place. In terms of winning, Ben Roethlisberger is the best QB in this division, and isn't that what counts? Given that this team draws the NFC East this season, it's tough to imagine more than one playoff team coming from here as the four teams beat each other silly all season.

1. Pittsburgh: I like their defense. I think their passing game has a lot of upside with a maturing Santonio Holmes and rookie Limas Sweed. And they're deeper at running back with rookie Rashard Mendenhall. One issue is depth, so if injuries hit hard they'll drop.
2. Cleveland: Last season the Browns upgraded their offensive line. This past offseason it was the defense's turn with the addition of DE Corey Williams and DT Shaun Rodgers. The passing game should be strong, but what if Jamal Lewis breaks down? The back seven on defense is going to have generate a lot more turnovers and not be so porous vs. the pass for the Browns to play beyond December.
3. Cincinnati: This is a tough team for me to peg. Their defense should be better - it certainly has more talent and coordinator Mike Zimmer should make the most of it. QB Carson Palmer has to take better care of the ball and his WR core has to get healthy. Don't be surprised to see Chris Perry replace Rudi Johnson at RB.
4. Baltimore: The defense, despite some age and injury concerns at corner, should be solid. But if RB Willis McGahee is injured, it won't matter. It's tough to see how they can win with any of their quarterbacks and a very suspect receiving group.

AFC South
Overview: Can anyone end the Colts' run of five consecutive division titles? I think so. Indy has a lot of injury concerns, and as the playoffs demonstrated, they're not deep enough withstand overly physical teams. If Jacksonville's receiving core steps up, look out, the Jags seemingly have everything else in place. Jeff Fisher could be coach of the year most seasons for the job he does with the Titans, who again seem to have some holes, especially on offense. The Texans are cursed to be in the conference's toughest division.

1. Jacksonville: The Jags had a chance to take the Patriots out in the playoffs, and with a bit more balance on offense, they could do it this season. Excellent running game and solid turnover margin are usually a winning formula.
2. Indianapolis: Manning, Freeney, Harrison, Sanders - not names one likes to see on the injury report, but all of them will be there to start the season. If the Colts get off to a blazing start it could go a long way to proving that preseason is meaningless. I don't see the Colts having the depth to hold up against a tough schedule.
3. Tennessee: This is a key season for this franchise - either Vince Young is the answer at quarterback or he isn't. The defense will be stout, and the Titans could have a very good one-two punch at running back in LenDale White and Chris Johnson.
4. Houston: The Texans are improving, and they might shock me and leap into third in the division and challenge for a playoff spot. However, they have some secondary issues and need some bounce-back years from RBs Ahman Green and Chris Brown to take the heat off of the passing game.

AFC West
Overview: The Chargers are primed for a Super Bowl run. The key for them is making it through the playoffs healthy. That might have been the difference between them knocking off New England in last season's conference championship game. The Raiders have a lot of young talent in their backfield on all over their defense, and they've been so bad for so long they're going to catch some teams sleeping. I expect the Broncos' slide to continue, and the Chiefs are too young to make much noise this year, but blowing it up was the right approach.

1. San Diego: If TE Antonio Gates is healthy, look out. The offense should score in bunches. The defense is loaded, too, though the situation with LB Shawn Merriman's knee is worrisome.
2. Oakland: My surprise team pick. Yes, the offensive line might be sub par and QB JaMarcus Russell is going to be up and down, but this team has a ton of talent, and if their defense can stop the run better, watch out.
3. Denver: The Broncos have problems on both lines, some holes in the middle of the defense, and who will run the ball? QB Jay Cutler should move into the echelon just below Manning and Brady this season.
4. Kansas City: A lot of good young talent and a healthy Larry Johnson will be cause for optimism. But the Chiefs have the NFL's worst quarterback situation and a bad offensive line, which is a shame because TE Tony Gonzalez is an elite player and WR Dwayne Bowe could develop into one.

Playoff teams: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, San Diego, Indianapolis and either Jets or Bills.

NFL 2008 predictions, part I

2008-08-27T17:15:00.000-07:00

The Magazines have spoken, at least the ones that I trust, about the 2008 NFL season. What follows are their projections for the upcoming season, which kicks off in a week.

Pro Football Weekly (which joined forces with CBSSports.com) predicts New England beating Dallas in the Super Bowl.
Here is its division-by-division breakdown:
AFC East
1. New England; 2. Buffalo; 3. NY Jets; 4. Miami
AFC North
1. Cleveland; 2. Pittsburgh; 3. Cincinnati; 4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Houston; 4. Tennessee
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Oakland; 4. Kansas City
NFC East
1. Dallas; 2. NY Giants; 3. Philadelphia; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Green Bay; 2. Minnesota; 3. Chicago; 4. Detroit
NFC South
1. New Orleans; 2. Carolina; 3. Tampa Bay; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. Arizona; 3. St. Louis; 4. San Francisco

Analysis: I wonder about Cleveland and Green Bay winning their divisions, and there are some orders of division picks that I question.

The Sporting News, which merged with Street and Smith's, sees the Chargers defeating Dallas in the Super Bowl.
AFC East
1. New England; 2. NY Jets; 3. Buffalo; 4. Miami
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh; 2. Cincinnati; 3. Cleveland; 4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Tennessee; 4. Houston
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Kansas City; 4. Oakland
NFC East
1. Dallas; 2. NY Giants; 3. Philadelphia; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Green Bay; 2. Chicago; 3. Minnesota; 4. Detroit
NFC South
1. New Orleans; 2. Tampa Bay; 3. Carolina; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. St. Louis; 3. Arizona; 4. San Francisco

Analysis: Of the three, this is the most solid to me with a few exceptions. I don't see the Rams or Bengals finishing nearly that high or the Vikings that low.

And Sports Illustrated foresees New England defeating Philadelphia in the Super Bowl
AFC East
1. New England; 2. NY Jets; 3. Buffalo; 4. Miami
AFC North
1.Pittsburgh; 2. Cleveland; 3. Baltimore; 4. Cincinnati
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Tennessee; 4. Houston
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Kansas City; 4. Oakland
NFC East
1. Philadelphia; 2. Dallas; 3. NY Giants; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Minnesota; 2. Green Bay; 3. Detroit; 4. Chicago
NFC South
1. Tampa Bay; 2. Carolina; 3. New Orleans; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. Arizona; 3. San Francisco; 4. St. Louis

Analysis: Every season SI should preface Dr. Z's picks by disclosing his heavy East Coast bias. How else does one explain the Eagles winning the NFC East over Dallas? Putting Tennessee in the playoffs again this year seems a reach to me, too.

Consensus division winners:
AFC East - New England
AFC South - Indianapolis
AFC West - San Diego
NFC West - Seattle
Other consensus playoff teams - NY Giants, Jacksonville, Dallas.

Coming up: My AFC and NFC breakdowns and predictions

Taking a Look at the NFC West

2008-08-17T18:17:00.001-07:00

This is the last in a series of preseason looks at each NFL division.

Teams listed in alphabetical order

ARIZONA CARDINALS

2007 Record: 8-8

The Forecast: Partly Sunny

The Cardinals took some positive steps under rookie coach Ken Whisenhunt in 2007, but questions still exist. Arizona must improve its running game (29th), particularly if one or both of its QBs (Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner) go down to injury again. The run defense was solid, but the pass defense left a lot to be desired (28th). The Cardinals drafted CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the first round and should have S Adrian Wilson healthy, which will help. Wilson drives the birds' defense.

It Will Be A Cold Winter in the Desert If: The Cardinals can't cut way down on their mistakes (penalties and turnovers) and Leinart fails to develop as hoped.

ST. LOUIS RAMS

2007 Record: 3-13

The Forecast: Mostly Cloudy

Who would have thought the Rams defense (21st) would finish ranked higher than the offense (24th)? That's what happened as injuries tore the offensive line apart, and kept QB Marc Bulger running for his life. One bright spot was RB Steven Jackson, who despite missing five games with injuries topped 1,000 yards. WR Torry Holt overcame knee problems to post yet another 1,000-yard season. The Rams are building a good defensive line with first-round pick Chris Long joining last season's No. 1, Adam Carriker, but the back seven other than LB Will Witherspoon is below average.

There Will Be Trouble in River City If: Jackson's holdout lasts much longer, and the offensive line can't protect Bulger.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

2007 Record: 5-11

The Forecast: Partly Cloudy, perhaps some sun at times

The 49ers again invested heavily in improving their defense, adding free-agent DE Justin Smith and drafting DT Kentwan Balmer. That should help a very good set of linebackers, led by Patrick Willis and Manny Lawson. The real problem by the Bay was a lack of offense. The 49ers had the league's worst - statistically - and despite the signings of WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson, it's tough to see the passing game improving unless a QB emerges and RB Frank Gore returns to his 2006 form.

Even Montana or Young Might Not Be Able to Save the Niners If: All their high-priced talent on defense doesn't start playing like it, the running game doesn't re-emerge and nobody catches the ball.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

2007 Record: 10-6

The Forecast: Mostly sunny, some clouds possible

How will things work out now that Coach Mike Holmgren has announced this is final season? The Seahawks' opportunistic defense has elite players in every position group, and it is stacked at linebacker. Seattle's formula was simple - create turnovers and pressure quarterbacks, and it worked well until the playoffs. The offense is in good hands with QB Matt Hasselbeck, but whom will he throw to? WRs Bobby Engram and Deion Branch are hurt and DJ Hackett left as a free agent. Also gone is RB Shaun Alexander, replaced by the trio of Julius Jones, TJ Duckett and Maurice Morris. It is not unprecedented for a Holmgren-coached team to have success with a RB-by-committee approach (see Green Bay 1996).

Expect It To Pour If: No one emerges at WR and the revamped running game can't generate enough yards to keep defenses honest.

Coming up: Season predictions by conference and division. Once the regular season begins, I will resume my weekly previews and recaps.

Taking a Look at the NFC South

2008-08-09T20:45:00.000-07:00

Teams listed in alphabetical order.

ATLANTA FALCONS
2007 record: 4-12
The forecast: Mostly cloudy
Look up overhaul in the dictionary and the Falcons' logo should appear. They have a new coach (Mike Smith), new QB (rookie Matt Ryan), new RB (Michael Turner) and new K (Jason Elam). The team got rid of virtually every veteran on its roster, including CB DeAngelo Hall, TE Algie Crumpler, RB Warrick Dunn, LB Demorrio Williams and DT Rod Coleman. Yes, the Falcons had a good draft, but they have a long way to go in what should be a competitive division.
The Temperature Will Rise in Hot-lanta If: The offensive line doesn't improve (it allowed nearly 50 sacks and fewer than 100 yards rushing per game), someone doesn't step up to replace all the departed playmakers on defense and Turner stumbles in his first crack at a starting job.

CAROLINA PANTHERS
2007 record: 7-9
The forecast: Partly cloudy, some sun possible
The Panthers' 2007 season essentially ended when QB Jake Delhomme was lost for the season with an elbow injury. Carolina's passing game was nearly non-existent after that, despite the presence of WR Steve Smith (who has been suspended for the team's first two games because of a training camp fight). This is a pivotal season in Carolina. The Panthers' record has declined two seasons in a row, and their usually reliable defense did not generate sacks or turnovers last season at its typical pace.
Carolina Will Be Blue All Over If: Delhomme isn't healthy, the offensive line doesn't gel and the defensive line can't bring the heat.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
2007 record: 7-9
The forecast: Mostly sunny
An 0-4 start and a season-ending knee injury to RB Deuce McAllister left the Saints reeling in '07. McAllister should be back, meaning RB Reggie Bush can be more of situational back, which seems to be the role he excels in. Adding TE Jeremy Shockey via trade and a young fleet of receivers give QB Drew Brees plenty of targets. The Saints also shored up their front seven on defense by adding DT Sedrick Ellis in the draft, trading for LB Jonathan Vilma and signing LB Dan Morgan. The real question is will the secondary improve - the Saints were 30th in pass defense and managed just 13 picks.
More Blues on Bourbon Street If: McAllister has lost it and the ground game suffers again, and the pass defense remains pourous.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
2007 record: 9-7
The forecast: Mostly sunny
The Bucs rode an efficient offense and a solid defense, particularly against the pass, to a playoff berth for the second time in three seasons. This came despite the potential career-ending injury suffered by RB Carnell Williams. Earnest Graham emerged in Williams' place, and Warrick Dunn returned. QB Jeff Garcia was accurate and largely mistake-free, and he needed to be given the lack of playmaking targets outside of ageless WR Joey Galloway. Both of the Bucs' lines are young, deep and talented, and the other defensive position groups are well-stocked.
The Pirate Ship Will Sink If: Garcia gets hurt or is adversely affected by the team's reported pursuit of Brett Favre and no playmakers emerge on offense.

Next: NFC West

Greener pastures for Favre?

2008-08-07T09:38:00.000-07:00

This morning it hit me - for the first time since 1992 Brett Favre will not suit up for the Green Bay Packers.

Yes, he "retired" in March, but the drama of the past few weeks had led me to believe - quite incorrectly - that he would be back with the Pack in 2008. I wrote as much a couple of days ago, going so far as to predict that Favre's return to the team would mean the end of the Aaron Rodgers era before it even got started. I was very wrong and apologies to Mr. Rodgers for that speculation.

Now that Favre is a Jet, I'd like to analyze the deal and what it means for all parties involved.

1. For the Jets:
They get a quarterback who is a proven winner and has a big arm. In recent days, Favre has seemed motivated to play this season, and the Jets restocked their lines during free agency. Much talk since the deal was reported has centered on their playoff possibilities.
Now the bad news. Favre will be 39 in October, he has a history of struggling in New York, and he not only must learn a new offense, but he has to adjust to a completely new set of teammates, and he goes from the NFL's smallest market to the center of its media universe.

For Favre:
He gets his wish. He is out of Green Bay and gets to play football this season. However, he can't be happy with how all of this has unfolded. If anything it's short-term relief, at least until he discovers that the Jets' receiving core is not nearly as talented as the one he left, and the media glare in the Big Apple is 10 times brighter than in Wisconsin. He will help the Jets, but he left a far more talented team.
His desire to "stick it" to the Packers this season could only be accomplished in the Super Bowl, something I view as highly unlikely for either team at this point.

For the Packers:
General Manager Ted Thompson and Coach Mike McCarthy will be judged, fair or not, by whether Aaron Rodgers can not only return the Packers to the playoffs but win some games. And Favre's success or lack thereof in New York also factors into it. Thompson has stakes his career on this. But is it fair to judge him on this alone? Yes, he didn't show much flexibility or compassion, but since he arrived in Wisconsin as GM he has had a single-minded approach to build a longterm winner. The Packers' depth and talent levels have improved dramatically the past two seasons, and if Rodgers pans out (or one of the rookie QBs behind him does), Green Bay should be a playoff team for years to come. ...
McCarthy is the one person in this entire process who impressed me. He stood in the middle of the storm day after day, answered questions honestly, he had the fortitude to ask Favre the tough questions without being threatening about it, and he kept the well-being of his team ahead of the well-being of one player. ...
The Packers also gain a conditional draft choice that should at least turn into a third-rounder, and if the Jets reach the playoffs and Favre plays more than three quarters of their offensive snaps (not a stretch), could become a second. That is a decent return for a player whose career was thought to be over five months ago. ...
For the Packers players, especially Rodgers, this is closure. They can return to the business of preparing for the upcoming season, which really is what training camp should be all about.

For the rest of the league:
The NFL couldn't be happier to have both a Super Bowl Champion and the league's most recognizable player both in New York City. And I would not be shocked if the league itself played a role in facilitating this deal given the commissioner's early involvement with Favre and the Packers. Yes, conspiracy theory, but it wouldn't surprise me given how all of this has played out. ...
The AFC East becomes a bit more interesting, though I question whether the Jets will challenge the Patriots for the division title. The Jets are helped by an easy schedule, but anything more than a 9-7 record would shock me. I don't know if 9-7 gets New York into the AFC playoffs or not. ...
The NFC North will be more competitive as well. However, it should be noted the Packers lost to the Bears twice with Favre last season, and the Vikings still have question marks at quarterback and in the secondary.

Favre: Who's the Boss?

2008-08-03T20:30:00.000-07:00

The summer drama that has been Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers took another turn Sunday when it was reported the legendary quarterback is returning to the team Monday and likely will participate in practice as soon as Tuesday.

What forced the Packers to have a change in heart to welcome Favre back?

The possibility of having their most popular player in another uniform might have finally been too much for the Packers braintrust to stomach. Perhaps Favre told them he would play more than one season (more on this in a bit), thus ending the annual offseason game of cat and mouse.

What role did their inability to trade him play in this?

There is a saying that sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make. Trading Favre to another NFC team such as the Bucs would have been bad, to an intra-division rival such as the Bears or Vikings disastrous, and in the Badger State, unforgivable. There is no question the Packers wanted to trade Favre at some point, however their reported demands also made it clear they preferred he just stayed retired.

What role did Favre play in this, meaning did he state unwaveringly that he wants to play football?

My guess, and it's only that, is he agreed to play more than one season if the Packers took him back. He clearly wants to play football, and he clearly wants to win another Super Bowl. He's never wavered from that latter statement. Favre forced the Packers' hand by saying he'd only accept a trade to Minnesota, which would be completely unacceptable to GM Ted Thompson, demoralizing to the Packers players and the end of the world for a vast majority of Packers fans.

What does this mean for Aaron Rodgers?

Probably the end of his Packers career. There is no question in my mind that Favre will beat him out for the starting job. No matter how it's couched, Rodgers can't be happy, and he will walk when his rookie contract expires after the 2009 season. Barring a Favre injury, I doubt Rodgers will play much more this season than in years past.

And what about the Packers chances this season?

On some level, the Packers management team must believe they're very close to winning a Super Bowl, and I don't think anyone believes Rodgers will give them a better chance this season than Favre. Assuming Favre is fit and healthy, he still has more than a month to prepare for the regular season. The Packers' signing of Ryan Grant over the weekend helps, and reports on the team's scrimmage Sunday night said the secondary looks vastly improved. So the Packers will be one of the NFC's better teams, but I don't know if they can overcome Dallas or New York, both of which I anticipate being better this season.

What about the future?

If Favre plays this season, the Packers probably will look to prepare second-round draft choice Brian Brohm and/or seventh-round pick Matt Flynn to take over for Favre. If Favre has committed to two more seasons, and I suspect he has, then it would not surprise me to see the Packers trade Rodgers at the draft next spring.

But, like everyone else, I'm getting ahead of myself. Four and a half more weeks until the season starts.

Taking a Look at the NFC North

2008-08-01T15:15:00.001-07:00

Teams listed in alphabetical order.

CHICAGO BEARS
2007 record: 7-9
The Forecast: Partly sunny with some clouds
Can a team win with a potentially great defense and a likely marginal offense? Aside from rookie RB Matt Forte and second-year TE Greg Olson, the Bears' offense lacks playmakers. Re-signing LB Lance Briggs and keeping S Mike Brown, CB Nathan Vasher and DTs Tommie Harris and Dusty Dvoraceck healthy could usher in another dominant Bears defense.
That Won't Be Wind Howling If: The Bears don't get something from their passing game and the middle part of the defense can't stay healthy.

DETROIT LIONS
2007 record: 7-9
The Forecast: Cloudy, with a chance of sun
The defense needed a lot of help, and that is what the Lions addressed in free agency and somewhat in the draft. None of the position groups stand out, though DT Cory Redding has Pro Bowl ability and LB Ernie Sims is not far behind. Subtracting DT Shaun Rodgers and adding CB Leigh Bodden were good moves. The passing game could be special with WRs Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams, but who will run the ball?
Look for More Layoffs in Detroit If: The Lions don't show significant improvement and at least contend for a playoff spot.

GREEN BAY PACKERS
2007 record: 13-3
The Forecast: Sun mixed with possible storms
After a surprisingly promising 2007 season ended on a sour note in the NFC Championship game, the news has gone from bad to worse in the land of wholesome dairy products. First QB Brett Favre retired, then shortly before camp started he decided not to retire. Compounding matters has been the club's stance that they've moved on to Aaron Rodgers as their QB. But enough of that. The Packers have rebuilt a lot of depth through the past three drafts, and it's become apparent they might have the deepest group of WRs in the league. They're strong on the lines and at linebacker as well. If RB Ryan Grant's holdout ends soon, their ground game is in good hands. If not, Rodgers will have another tough hand to play. The defense needs better safety play and a return to health at the DT spot, otherwise it's very solid.
Cheeseheads Will Melt If: Favre plays for another team, Grant has a lengthy holdout, Rodgers can't justify the team's faith in him or injuries, which the Packers largely avoided in '07, hit this time around.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
2007 record: 8-8
The Forecast: Partly sunny
A popular choice as a playoff contender, the Vikings turned over significant parts of their roster in hopes of upgrading their pass defense and passing game. WR Bernard Berrian has the speed the Vikings have lacked since saying good-bye to Randy Moss, but he's nowhere near the caliber of player Moss is. S Madieu Williams will help the secondary, but unless another newcomer, DE Jared Allen, massively upgrades the pass rush, teams might still be able to exploit Minnesota's secondary. The running game offers no such worries with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor giving the Vikings the top 1-2 combination in the league. The offensive improvement will hinge on QB Tavaris Jackson's improvement, and he has the tools to do so.
The 10,000 Lakes Might Freeze Early If: Jackson regresses, Peterson gets hurt or the high-priced talent that was brought in doesn't live up their contracts.

Next: The NFC South

Taking a Look at the NFC East

2008-07-31T19:03:00.000-07:00

Teams listed in alphabetical order.

DALLAS COWBOYS
2007 record: 13-3
The Forecast: Sunny
The Cowboys easily are one of the NFL's most talented teams, as evidenced by their 13 Pro Bowl selections this past season. And they've added more talent in LB Zach Thomas (if he's healthy), CB Adam Jones (if he's not suspended) and rookie RB Felix Jones and rookie CB Mike Jenkins. If there is one position group the Cowboys lack depth, it is in their receiving core because if either WR Terrell Owens or TE Jason Witten goes down, QB Tony Romo's options shrink exponentially.
Brace for a Texas-sized Tantrum If: The Cowboys can't snap an 11-season winless string in the postseason.

NEW YORK GIANTS
2007 record: 10-6
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
Yes, the Giants lost DE Michael Strahan to retirement, traded TE Jeremy Shockey and lost LB Kawika Mitchell and S Gibril Wilson in free agency. However, this is a team that ran the table in the playoffs - all on the road - and established itself as a tough, physical team. QB Eli Manning has proven he's for real, and the Giants have a ground game where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. One situation to watch is the health and attitude of WR Plaxico Burress, who was a difference maker in 2007.
There Will Be No Repeat If: The Giants don't win more than three games at home and pull out another strong finish (three of their final five games are within the division, and the other two are against what should be improved Minnesota and Carolina teams).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
2007 record: 8-8
The Forecast: Mix of sun and clouds
The Eagles are a team that basically beat themselves last season with turnovers and poor special teams play. QB Donovan McNabb played reasonably well coming off a torn ACL, but the Eagles struggled to score TDs in the red zone despite the presence of Brian Westbrook, who pound for pound might be the toughest RB in the league. The defense has several young players who improved last season, so that shouldn't be an issue.
The Endangered Species List Will Grow If: The McNabb of old doesn't appear weekly, no receivers step up and Westbrook gets injured.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2007 record: 9-7
The Forecast: Clouds with more sun as the season goes on
The Redskins rallied to reach the playoffs after the murder of S Sean Taylor and enduring numerous injuries. It was a testament to the coaching of former Coach Joe Gibbs as much as anything. New Coach Jim Zorn will have his work cut out for him, particularly if QB Jason Campbell is not recovered from a knee injury. The skill positions on offense otherwise are loaded, and the defense was bolstered by the recent addition of DE Jason Taylor, who along with Andre Carter, gives Washington an imposing outside pass rush.
Brace for Capital Punishment If: Campbell falters and the secondary and grizzled offensive line sustain any injuries.

Next up: NFC North

Taking a Look at the AFC West

2008-07-28T07:54:00.000-07:00

Time to take a look around the AFC West Division
(teams are listed in alphabetical order)

DENVER BRONCOS
2007 record: 7-9
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Mostly cloudy
After the first losing record in Mike Shanahan's lengthy tenure in the Mile High City, the Broncos turned over a significant portion of their roster, but it's not the free agents who will make the big difference. The Broncos need recent high draft picks such as QB Jake Cutler, TE Tony Sheffler, T Ryan Clady, WR Eddie Royal and DLs Marcus Thomas, Tim Crowder and Jarvis Moss to play up to their draft positions. Denver has a lot of holes on its lines, and that was particularly reflected in its inability to stop the run last season.
Expect an Avalanche If: Cutler doesn't become a difference maker, the ground game sputters - now minus Travis Henry, who was released this summer - and the defense's young players don't take a step forward.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2007 record: 4-12
Camp opens: July 24
The Forecast: Cloudy, rain may be heavy at times
What do you have when you combine the second-worst offense with the fourth-worst rushing defense? Factor in that most of the team's veterans were shown the door in the offseason and the quarterback was unimpressive in his audition. Add to that one of the team's two stars - DE Jared Allen - was traded and the other - RB Larry Johnson - missed half of the season because of injuries. Despite a bonanza at the draft table, do you get the impression that I'm not real excited about the Chiefs' prospects this season?
There Will Be No KC Masterpiece If: Johnson gets hurt again and the passing game can't at least keep defenses honest.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
2007 record: 4-12
Camp opens: July 24
The Forecast: Cloudy, chance of sun at times
For every good move this team makes - drafting QB JaMarcus Russell and S Michael Huff in successive years and trading for CB DeAngelo Hall - there a series of mystifying moves, such as picking another RB (Darren McFadden) when three starting-caliber ones were on the roster, signing DL Tommy Kelly to a record-setting contract and paying more big money to WR Javon Walker, whose injury and personal histories have not be sparkling of late. Still, this is a team with a lot of talent. If Coach Lane Kiffin can continue to build a winning culture, Russell matures and the defense tightens up, the Raiders have the look of a surprise team.
Expect Al Davis' Wrath If: The defense doesn't improve against the run and the Raiders don't at least contend for a playoff spot.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
2007 record: 11-5
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Sunny
There should be no more questions about Norv Turner's coaching. The Bolts rebounded from a 3-3 start to win the West going away, and they came within one game of reaching the Super Bowl despite injuries to RB LaDainian Tomlinson, QB Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates. Obviously, the health of those three and center Nick Hardwick and NT Jamal Williams are of paramount importance. With a full training camp to get integrated into the Chargers' system, expect WR Chris Chambers to be even more valuable. This is a team with no major weaknesses, one primed for another long playoff run.
Expect a Tsunami If: Any of the key players are injured again at playoff time. For San Diego and its fans, it's Super Bowl or bust.

Next: NFC East

Taking a look at the AFC South

2008-07-26T06:41:00.000-07:00

Taking a look at the AFC South Division as training camp opens
(Teams listed in alphabetical order)

HOUSTON TEXANS
2007 record: 8-8
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, chance for periods of sun
The Texans are slowly establishing a solid offense. That it was 14th in the NFL last season despite injuries to QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson is a testament to both Coach Gary Kubiak and the club's ability to gradually upgrade perpetual trouble spots such as the line and receiving depth. Houston needs someone from among injury-prone Ahman Green and Chris Brown or rookie Steve Slaton to step up in the running game. The defense has outstanding players in DE Mario Williams and LB DeMeco Ryans, but just not enough of them.
The Price of Texas T Will Plummet If: No one steps up in the running game and CB Dunta Robinson (out first half of season because of a knee injury) can't make it back in 2008.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
2007 record: 13-3
Camp opens: July 24
The Forecast: Sunny
Like the swallows returning to San Juan Capistrano annually, the Colts will win at least 12 games if QB Peyton Manning is healthy. And this year, that is not a given because of his recent knee surgery. The Colts have talent at every position, but maybe not the depth to absorb the injuries like they had last year, especially WR Marvin Harrison and DE Dwight Freeney. It also doesn't help that TE Dallas Clark and S Bob Sanders get nicked a lot. Still, Indy always reloads, and for a team that is rightly considered an offensive powerhouse, people forget the Colts had the No. 3 defense WITHOUT Freeney in 2007.
The Road Will Be Rough If: Manning misses more than a game or two because of his injury. With all the injuries the Colts endured last season, he and Sanders are the team's most indispensable players.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
2007 record: 11-5
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Sunny
The Jags are a team with few, if any, discernable weaknesses. QB David Garrard is efficient and can make plays in the clutch, the running game is punishing, and the receivers have been upgraded. Both lines are solid, as are the linebackers and special teams. Jacksonville addressed its needs in the offseason (WR and DL) and is a physical club that does not make many mistakes. This is a club positioned to not only challenge the Colts but make a Super Bowl run.
Jaguars Go on Endangered Species List If: The D line is young, so injuries to veterans there or to Garrard would hurt.

TENNESSEE TITANS
2007 record: 10-6
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Partly sunny, some clouds
A funny thing happened on the way to rebuilding, the Titans won four of their final five games to make the playoffs. Their defense is outstanding, especially against the run. Adding rookie RB Chris Johnson and pairing him with the emerging LenDale White should ensure the Titans' ground game is solid. Really, any gains the Titans make are tied to QB Vince Young and a barely average receiving core. The Titans receivers caught only eight TD passes all of 2007. 17 PLAYERS caught more.
The Grand Ole Oprey Is Safe But: If Young (9-17 TD-INT ration in '07) doesn't improve it's tough to see Tennessee repeating last season's playoff berth.

Next: AFC West

Taking a look at the AFC North

2008-07-24T08:04:00.000-07:00

A look at the AFC North as training camp begins
(Teams are listed in alphabetical order)

BALTIMORE RAVENS
2007 record: 5-11
Camp opens: July 23
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, chance of sun
The Ravens sustained two huge losses in the offseason due to retirements - QB Steve McNair and LT Jon Ogden. Both are Hall of Fame candidates and were leaders for the Ravens. Rookie Joe Flacco, second-year man Troy Smith and veteran Kyle Boller will battle to replace McNair. Though the head coach changed, the defense's aggressive style won't because coordinator Rex Ryan was retained. New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will maximize RB Willis McGahee's talents.
The Nevermore Cry Will Go Out If: None of the three candidates emerges at quarterback and injuries beset TE Todd Heap and the secondary again.

CINCINNATI BENGALS
2007 record: 7-9
Camp opens: July 27
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, chance for sun
The Bengals again invested heavily in defense in the draft and free agency, but they also lost two of their better players as UFAs (DE Justin Smith and S Madieu Williams). Given their defense was 27th last season, maybe that's not bad. Now that WR Chad Johnson says he'll play in Cincinnati this season, the Carson Palmer-directed passing game again should be potent. Three of the top four running backs battled serious injuries last season, and Rudi Johnson seems to have slowed.
It Will Get Muggy in the Jungle If: The defense - particularly against the pass - again struggles and the passing game has to do it all for the offense.

CLEVELAND BROWNS
2007 record: 10-6
Camp opens: July 23
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
Optimism is running high in Cleveland, and with good reason. Derek Anderson emerged at QB, Jamal Lewis re-emerged at RB, and WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow stayed healthy and proved they have the talent to join the elite classes at their positions. Add an improving line and WR Donte' Stallworth to the mix and firepower shouldn't be the problem. Defense, however, was in 2007. The Browns also added DTs Shaun Rodgers (a beast when motivated) and Corey Williams via trades. Dealing CB Leigh Bodden in the Rodgers deal might haunt them if Rodgers plays as he has the past few seasons in Detroit.
It Will Be a Long Winter on the Lake If: Anderson falls off and backup Brady Quinn isn't ready and the Browns get off to a slow start because of their brutal schedule.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2007 record: 10-6
Camp opens: July 27
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
The Steelers, particularly QB Ben Roethlisberger, were better than expected under new coach Mike Tomlin last season. Now the expectations have been raised, and most would consider Big Ben among the league's elite QBs. The offense should be fine with a fleet of emerging receivers and the addition of rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall to Speedy Willie Parker. The linebacking core again should be excellent. However, this team is not as deep as Steelers teams of the past, particularly along the lines. Losing All-Pro G Alan Faneca in free agency will really hurt.
The Three Rivers Will Freeze Over If: There are a lot of injuries, especially on either line, and the team can't navigate the league's toughest schedule.

Taking a look at the AFC East

2008-07-23T11:05:00.000-07:00

A look at the AFC East as training camp opens
(teams listed in alphabetical order)

BUFFALO BILLS
2007 record: 7-9
Open camp: July 25
The Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance for sunshine.
The Bills can't be racked by injuries as they were last season (17 players finished the season on IR), can they? Drafting WR James Hardy will help take some heat off Lee Evans, and the continued maturation of RB Marshawn Lynch and QB Trent Edwards should help improve an offense that was ranked 30th overall last season. If offseason acquistion DT Marcus Stroud is healthy and rookie CB Leodis McKelvin makes a seemless transition to the NFL, the defense should be even better.
It Will Be a Long Winter If: Neither Edwards nor JP Losman can inject any life into the passing game because Lynch will face stacked defenses.

MIAMI DOLPHINS
2007 record: 1-15
Open camp: July 25
The Forecast: Showers, might be heavy at times.
The Dolphins have nowhere to go but up. However, despite all of the new regime's offseason moves, which included this week's trade of their best player - Jason Taylor - to Washington, there are some serious holes at every skill position. If RB Ronnie Brown is healthy and Ricky Williams bounces back, they could have a decent ground game. The popular line of thinking is they'll play harder and tougher, but this team has a long way to go in upgrading its talent level to compete for a playoff spot.
Board Up the Windows If: The Fish can't run the ball effectively and thus control the clock. Their passing game and defense seem very suspect

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2007 record: 16-0, lost in Super Bowl 42
Open camp: July 21
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
Despite having much of the same personnel as last season's undefeated team, the Patriots aren't drawing nearly the attention that they should, which I think will make them all the more dangerous. Their offense again will be among the league's best, and their defensive line is the NFL's best three-man unit.
There Will Be No Tea Party If: The Patriots can't adequately fill several holes in their secondary and get faster in their back seven on defense.

NEW YORK JETS
2007 record: 4-12
Open camp: July 23
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, with some sun mixed in
The Jets were one of the most aggressive and biggest spenders in free agency. Additions such as G Alan Faneca, T Damian Woody, DT Kris Jenkins and LB Calvin Pace address pressing needs and should tighten a porous run defense and enhance the ground game. Will it be enough to return to the playoffs?
The Subway Won't Be Safe if: All of the money spent in free agency doesn't add 5-6 more wins and neither Kellen Clemens nor Chad Pennington is the answer at QB.

Next: The AFC North

Stay tuned for Football 2008

2008-07-21T10:33:00.000-07:00

Training camps are starting to open, and with them will come my annual camp previews.

I run down each division, usually one per day. And this year I may experiment with audio analysis.

A few random thoughts ...

I'm fairly certain the NFL can't wait for the focus to be back on the playing field. Another offseason of off-the-field legal woes for its players, and flat out bizarre behavior in some instances must make the stomaches of the league office's inhabitants turn. ... I think we're going to see a more wide-open race for the Super Bowl than in any season in recent memory, and here is why. There are as many as 11 AFC teams with legitimate playoff chances, and probably 8-9 in the NFC. But the top level of teams in the AFC - the Patriots, Colts, Jaguars and Chargers - is extremely impressive. Just below them are the Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Titans. And there are some potential surprise teams lurking in the Bills, Jets and Texans. I expect the AFC North and AFC South to be hotly contested. ... In the NFC, it's possible the four best teams all might reside in the East. I really think any team in the East would win the North, South or West this season. I fully expect three teams from the East to make the playoffs despite their having to play a brutal intradivisional schedule.

Want more clues about the 2008 season? Check back this week and next.

Bye Brett, Why It Makes Sense for the Packers to Move On

2008-07-14T13:42:00.000-07:00

I just can't help myself.

But what do you expect from a guy who grew up blocks from Lambeau Field? I have to add two more cents to the Brett Favre drama.

Favre's place in Packers history likely will be secure in the long run regardless of how this unnecessary soap opera of will he or won't he plays out.

I think Favre is being selfish. The Packers have bent over backward for four seasons (or more, who really knows at this point?) to accommodate his decision-making processes. At some point, wisdom dictates you have to move on, particularly with a 38-year-old quarterback in the NFL.

As Dr. Z wrote on SI.com, many are the aged quarterbacks who failed after going to new teams late in their careers - Namath, Unitas, Montana - to name three.

I can't see Favre enjoying near the level of success he has in Green Bay for three simple reasons:
1. Few, if any, teams have the depth of talent at receiver that Packers have.
2. Few, if any, teams will provide him the comfort level with an offense that he enjoys in Green Bay. There is a reason it took him several years to hit his stride under Coach Mike Holmgren and two under Coach Mike McCarthy. It takes time to adjust to new offenses no matter who you are (more on this later).
3. Anything short of a Super Bowl in a new city would be considered a failure, and if Favre thinks he is under the microscope in Green Bay, try New York, Carolina, Washington, Chicago or Minnesota, where teams believe they are one Brett Favre away from w inning it all. This would be incredible pressure.

So what is the Packers' problem with him changing his mind?

Two things.

First, McCarthy tailored the Packers' offense to suit Favre's strengths, which are many. Few can match his arm strength and experience. However, his mobility has declined dramatically in the past 4-5 seasons, and his decision-making often leaves much to be desired. But that's part of the package and most Packers fans gladly have lived with the picks as well as the wins. ... When Favre retired, changed his mind, then unchanged his mind in the spring, the Packers had to move forward from a strategy standpoint. That means making the offense more friendly to a younger, more accurate, more mobile but less experienced quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. The Packers spent all of their mini-camps and OTAs implementing changes to enhance Rodgers' skills and mask his deficiencies. Changing everything back is not as easy as it might seem in this era of increasingly complex NFL offenses.

Second, what sort of message does this send the team? That Favre can do whatever he wants? Coach Mike Sherman allowed that, and the result was one of the club's worst seasons ever in 2005. And what sort of message does it send to Aaron Rodgers, who has endured the will he or won't he talk for four years? Rodgers is the present and the future for the Packers under center. To jeopardize that to placate the indecisive Favre and his "fans" is simply stupid from a football standpoint. The Packers must find out what they have in Rodgers. After all, they've invested four seasons in him at this point, and if he leaves after next season and lights it up for another team, it will rank as a bigger waste than paying Brett Favre another $12 million to sit on the bench.

Brett Favre is one of my all-time favorite football players, and that won't change with this episode. I own his jerseys. I own his football cards. However, his selfish or at the least confused attitude has left a bad taste in my mouth.

There's Something about Brett

2008-07-09T08:39:00.000-07:00

... Brett Favre, that is, that is bothering me.

Is he seriously considering coming back just four months after his tearful departure from the Green Bay Packers and the NFL?

If he is, he's putting the Packers, and himself in a very difficult position.

The Packers have prepared Aaron Rodgers to be Favre's replacement since they drafted him in 2005. He annually has lived through the "will Brett or won't Brett" return talk. This past offseason, Coach Mike McCarthy has tailored his offense to Rodgers' strengths during minicamps, "optional" team activities and one-on-one study.

Should Favre return to the Packers, one could assume that Rodgers will opt to leave (to put it politely) when his rookie contract expires after the 2009 season. A Favre return also would cost the Packers $12 million in salary. ... And there is no guarantee he can replicate his performance of a season ago, which statistically was among his three-best, and victory-wise tied for his best. So there is a great deal of risk for the Packers.

What about Favre? His indecisiveness has dampened some Packers fans' enthusiasm about him. Granted, a large majority would welcome him back with open arms, but his annual flirtations with leaving the game have some fans scratching their cheeseheads. ... In addition to injury, which seems ridiculous to write about a man who didn't miss a game in 16 seasons, Favre faces the prospect of the team not meeting the lofty expectations it would face should he return. Anything less than a Super Bowl would not be satisfactory. ... Then there is family. Favre's stated desire has been to spend more time with his daughters and wife, a cancer survivor.

One more thing. While Favre's body clock might be telling him it's time for training camp, what I heard last spring was, "I am mentally fatigued and not willing to go through the weekly preparation for opponents and deal with the pressure that comes with playing in the fishbowl known as Green Bay." Favre was clear that physically he felt fine. That obviously hasn't changed.

So what's next? Only Favre knows.

Come back, lead the Packers to a Super Bowl, and all of this is moot. Come back and not get there while basically holding the door open for Rodgers to leave creates a problem. Come back with another team, say the quarterback-needy Vikings or Bears, and it might be a nearly unpardonable sin in Packerland. ... Or stay retired and let things run their course.

Favre's place in Packers history is secure, but the final chapter might provide some interesting reading.

Someone call the cops: Police are robbers

2008-05-29T12:11:00.001-07:00

My wife and I were robbed at the Hollywood Bowl on Wednesday night.

No, not literally, but after enduring a two-hour ride there via the Bowl's "Park and Ride" program, which took turns, literally, that defied common traffic sense in LA, we were treated to one of the worst concerts I've ever seen.

I have long been a fan of the Police, but not the current incarnation. Wednesday night's show was about as half-hearted of a performance as I've seen. Yes, drummer Stewart Copeland was outstanding, and yes, guitarist Andy Summers was very, very good. The problem was the frontman - Sting.

Sting, who largely has been held responsible for breaking up the group in the mid-80s to launch his solo career, seemed lost at times, forgetting lyrics and intermittently adding bass lines when he so chose. After a strong start, his voice began to fade and he didn't seem to care.

All in all, there was little energy or cohesiveness despite the musical expertise of all three men.

Given what we paid ($55 for an upper level seat) and the enormous hassle to even get to the venue, the night could have been saved by a passionate, energetic performance, a la U2, Rush or Bruce Springsteen - all major acts I've seen live in the past three years for more money. But the Police, specifically Sting, didn't deliver.

I also take issue with the changes at the Bowl. Clearly they've muted the sound to appease the neighbors, and the result was less-than-stellar. It's hard to make Andy Summers - one of the finest axemen around - sound bad, but at times his guitar was muffled.

Adding insult to injury was this morning's review in the Los Angeles Times by a woman named Mary McNamara, who got a kick out of taking her kids to a rock and roll concert and clearly has a crush on Sting. An absolutely awful piece of work and further evidence of the decline of newspapers is available on the cover of the Calendar section.

After this experience, I will be hard pressed to both return to the Bowl and even entertain an idea of paying to go see a "reunion" concert, particularly if the band is fronted by an apathetic and arrogant frontman.

Taking a look around the NFL

2008-05-17T07:29:00.000-07:00

Scouting the NFL after the draft ...

Spygate continues to generate a lot of headlines, but the real news in all of this is the NFL could be at risk of losing its federal anti-trust exemption, which basically allows it to be a monopoly. ...

There are more and more reports of unrest at the Players Association, and more and more signs that the league's labor agreement is on thin ice (can't resist a hockey reference). For a league that prides itself on its labor peace (one factor that makes it attractive to advertisers and networks), this is not good news. ...

The league also continues to have a multitude of off-the-field behavior problems with its members. ...

See where this is going? ...

It's no better on the money front. Giants DE Michael Strahan once again is playing the will he or won't he retire game. Reportedly he wants a contract upgrade to return to the Super Bowl champions.

Things aren't much brighter in the Second City, where Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher is threatening to hold out if his contract isn't reworked, a contract he's less than halfway through
and averages more than $5 million per year.

Then there is Cleveland TE Kellen Winslow, who also has made references to missing minincamps, etc., because - you guessed it - he wants his contract reworked. I saw this one coming in February when for some strange reason the Browns decided to give WR Donte' Stallworth an outsized free-agent contract to leave the Patriots without regard to up-and-coming stars Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards. I'm not condoning Winslow's antics, but the Browns should have expected this. ...

If you're hoping for a post-draft analysis, look elsewhere. I believe it's pointless to evaluate teams' drafts before players have even played one preseason down. In fact, I think it requires about three years before one can objectively evaluate a team's decisions on the final Saturday in April.

Enjoy the offseason. Camps open in two months.

Don't forget about Icing On the Pond

2008-04-08T09:35:00.000-07:00

My hockey blog detailing my experiences writing a book about the game is up and running, and given the time of year, it's updated almost daily.

Join me as I interview players from all levels at http://icingonthepond.wordpress.com

Keep your head up and your stick on the ice!

The Boss was late for work

2008-04-08T09:28:00.001-07:00

But Bruce Springsteen was well worth the wait.

I caught his show at the Honda Center in Anaheim, and I cannot tell you how impressed I came away with his passion, energy and musicianship. A lot of performers could take a lesson from The Boss.

The E Street Band was tight, and the addition of Rage Against the Machine ringleader Tom Morello for a song was an added treat. His guitar skills are crazy.

The catalog of songs Springsteen draws from goes without saying, but as good as they are, seeing him and the band perform them take them up a few more levels.

Special mention to the Boss for giving airtime to Second Harvest Food Bank, which as he stated is "doing God's work" by feeding the poor. He's definitely correct about that.

So Boss, I forgive you for coming on an hour late. Of course, I have no room to talk - it only took me 41 years to show up.

New hockey blog is up and running

2008-03-26T08:27:00.000-07:00

I have decided to create a separate blog to chronicle my adventures researching and writing a book about hockey in California.

Please visit: icingonthepond.wordpress.com to view that.

This blog will continue to house my NFL and music posts.

Chris

Candid Camera and other hockey notes

2008-03-15T19:26:00.000-07:00

It shouldn't come as any surprise to anyone who knows Captials owner Ted Leonsis that Washington was out front with another innovation this week - Ovech-Cam.

The dual screen approach on this past Wednesday's telecast featured half the screen focused entirely on superstar Alexander Ovechkin, while the other half showed the regular game feed. Following Ovechkin on the ice was entertaining and educational. Watching him regularly inspecting his sticks on the bench was about as riveting as that part of Ovech-Cam got.

One suggestion for improving this: when Ovechkin or Sidney Crosby or whoever else is featured heads to the bench, shrink that window to one-quarter of the screen. Resume the 50-50 split when the featured player returns to the ice.

The even split all game was too much of a good thing at times. ...

Will the San Jose Sharks lose again in the regular season? Their winning streak is at 11, and the acquisition of defenseman Brian Campbell at the trade deadline has a fair amount to do with it. At least as important, however, has been the re-emergence of captain Patrick Marleau's scoring touch and the return to health of forward Jonathan Chechoo.

Marleau has caught fire since being paired with sharp-shooting second-year man Joe Pavelski and speedy rookie Devin Setoguchi. Chechoo, who was healing from a variety of injuries during the first half of the season, is again clicking with center Joe Thornton. Thornton, by the way, barely gets a mention for MVP, but after watching numerous Sharks games in person this season, it's tough for me to believe there are many more valuable players to their team.

NFL Insanity

2008-03-03T20:36:00.000-08:00

Anyone else noticed the size of contracts being thrown at free agents during the first few days of the NFL's annual free agency period? Yes, the salary cap has continued to grow, and many teams are flush with cash to spend, but ...

Some signings, such as the Philadelphia Eagles' signing of cornerback Asante Samuel, make plenty of sense given his history of Pro Bowl selections and his age (27).

Others, such as the Oakland Raiders' $50 million-plus contract for defensive lineman Tommy Kelly, who finished the season injured and probably isn't even the best player on his team at his position, make little sense.

A few other observations:

Players must fit systems. How else can one explain the Jets' trade of linebacker Jonathan Vilma to the New Orleans Saints for a middle-round pick. Vilma wasn't a fit in New York's scheme, but he's an incredible talent and a huge upgrade for the Saints, who have been actively shoring up their defense.

The Cleveland Browns are going for broke. Already without their first-round draft choice in April (it was part of the deal to move up in the 2007 draft to select QB Brady Quinn), they dealt their second-round pick to Green Bay for DT Corey Williams and their third-round choice to Detroit along with CB Leigh Bodden for DT Shaun Rodgers. No question that the Browns have upgraded one of their main weaknesses, but conventional wisdom is that you build through the draft, and the Browns have essentially thrown up the white flag on this year's amateur shopping spree.

Another team spending as if there is no tomorrow is the Jets, who have written contracts topping $137 million which include $67 million in guaranteed money. Their focus has been the offensive line, where they've added Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca and tackle Damien Woody.

More on the Browns. Giving Donte' Stallworth a deal averaging $7 million per year could have dire implications for the Browns. He's a terrific receiver, but he's not nearly as good as new teammates Braylon Edwards or Kellen Winslow. Put another way, if Stallworth is worth $7 million per season, how much are Edwards or Winslow worth to Cleveland when their rookie deals expire.

Simply Super

2008-02-04T19:30:00.000-08:00

So where do you rank Super Bowl XLII?

There is no question the Giants' stunning 17-14 victory over the previously undefeated Patriots is one of the more compelling NFL title games of all time.

True, the Patriots won their first two Super Bowls on late field goals, and the Giants' second Super Bowl victory was sealed when Buffalo's Scott Norwood missed a field goal, but there is something about a game-winning touchdown drive that stirs the imagination.

So I would submit that the only games that compare to this one were the 1956 NFL Championship, when the Baltimore Colts defeated the Giants in overtime, and the San Francisco 49ers' victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl XXIII.

The Colts' victory is widely considered the game that put the NFL in the nation's consciousness, while the 49ers' triumph cemented the legend of Joe Montana, who engineered a 92-yard drive in the final 3 minutes.

Whether or not the Giants' victory was the "best ever" is subject to debate, but I'd suggest it rates with the best.

Super Bowl week begins

2008-01-27T16:52:00.000-08:00

Are you ready for some hype?

Super Bowl week kicks off Monday, and prepare for more media coverage than ever before.

What of the matchup between the undefeated New England Patriots and the surging New York Giants?

The teams met in Week 17, when the Patriots pulled out a victory. Since then the wild-card Giants have knocked off three NFC Division champions - Tampa Bay (South), Dallas (East) and Green Bay (North).

The Patriots' pursuit of perfection has included physical victories over Jacksonville and San Diego. They'll find more of the same style of play against the Giants.

The Patroits were installed as double-digit favorites by oddsmakers, but it says here that this could be a very close game.

U2 ... in 3D

2008-01-27T16:44:00.000-08:00

Let's establish one thing - I am an unapologetic fan of U2, and I have been since my teen-age years in the early 1980s.

Thus, I'd waited in great anticipation for the Irish band's 3D movie, U23D. A USA Today review this past week called it "ground-breaking" and went on to say it has raised the ante for concert films.

U23D delivers on the hype.

The movie, basically a series of footage filmed during concerts from the South American leg of the Vertigo tour in early 2006, reveals remarkable detail, particularly the instrument playing. It's well edited and believably presented.

For those who cannot afford to or have been unable to find tickets to see a U2 show, this is an accurate, accessible show. For those of us who have seen them live (five times in my case), the film still provides a new look.

It's well worth whatever your local IMAX theater is charging for it.

Stanley Cup Playoffs come early

2008-01-23T19:31:00.000-08:00

The calendar says it's January, but it could just as well have be April, or more likely - May, at the Honda Center in Anaheim on Wednesday.

The intensity of the dislike between the Ducks and the Detroit Red Wings was evident from the start, when a staggering 34 penalty minutes, including two fighting majors, were called during the first period.

The West-leading Red Wings won the game, 2-1, in the sort of fashion that resembled the Stanley Cup playoffs more than a midseason game.

Detroit's puck-possession style of play and overall speed created more scoring chances, and thus more Ducks penalties. Detroit cashed in on a 5-on-3 power play for its first goal and scored its second on an odd-man rush that gained traction when Ducks defenseman Francois Beauchemin's stick broke.

Why was this a key game? Not only are the Wings way ahead of the field in the West (17 points) at the All-Star break, but the Ducks are gaining ground in the Pacific Division since the return of defenseman Scott Niedermayer.

It's also important to note that both of Anaheim's trips to the Sanley Cup Finals (2003) and (2007) included playoff series victories over Detroit.

Tale of two title games

2008-01-15T20:44:00.001-08:00

Who would have thought Week 2 of the NFL season would provide us a preview of the NFC and AFC Championship games?

But that's the case, and there are four very different storylines going into Sunday's matchups.

In the AFC:

The New England Patriots were widely considered the favorites to win it all entering the season. They've done nothing to change that, going a perfect 16-0 during the regular season and winning the Divisional playoff game against a tough Jacksonville time. Still, there are whispers they can be run on and that the elements and a fierce pass rush can slow their high-flying offense.

Their opponent, the San Diego Chargers, struggled to a 1-3 start, including a Week 2 blowout loss at Foxboro, Mass. The natives were restless, and Coach Norv Turner was in the cross-hairs. After reaching 5-5, they righted the ship, largely on the legs of RB LaDanian Tomlinson and QB Philip Rivers, whom Turner has stated is the key for San Diego going deep in the playoffs. LT and Rivers are ailing going into the AFC Championship, but no one gave the Chargers much of a chance again the defending champion Colts either.

The pick: The Patriots are too tough. I'm not convinced the Chargers can score enough points to overcome them. But it should be a close game.

In the NFC

The New York Giants players were ready to mutiny under "oppressive" Coach Tom Coghlin, or so the stories went heading into the season. An 0-2 start, including a Week 2 loss to the Packers in East Rutherford, N.J., didn't help. However, that Packers game was close until midway through the third quarter, and both of these teams are radically different from September. The Giants have become a cohesive group under Coghlin, Eli Manning is slowly maturing into an upper-echelon quarterback, the multi-headed running game is effectively wearing defenses down and the pass rush is masking a below-average secondary.

Sure Brett Favre has had a Hall of Fame career for the Green Bay Packers, but why come back to a team that was 4-8 at one point last season? More Packers fans were fearful of him tarnishing his legend. Then a funny thing happened. The Packers won four in a row to close 2006. Then they got off to a 10-1 start this season. The real key was the emergence of RB Ryan Grant, obtained from the Giants at the end of preseason for a sixth-round pick, as a balance to what has developed into a dangerous passing attack under the revitalized Favre. Often overlooked: the Packers have a punishing defense of their own.

The pick: The Packers have better personnel at more positions than the Giants, especially at the most important one - quarterback. Homefield advantage in Green Bay cannot be understated. Favre would have to completely implode and Manning would have to play the game of his career for the Giants to win.

NFL wild-card weekend

2008-01-03T08:12:00.000-08:00

A quick peek at questions surrounding this weekend's NFL wild-card games.

Much is made of how hot a team is entering the playoffs, and none is hotter than in the NFC than the Washington Redskins. But can they go into Seattle, one of the more difficult places to play, and knock off the Seahawks? Washington's formula should appear familiar to Redskins fans - run the football and stop the run. Seattle, meanwhile, has adopted a pass-first mentality on offense and features a smallish, though fast, defense.

The New York Giants pay a visit to Tampa Bay, which largely has rested its starters the past two weeks. The Giants played the Patriots tough in Week 17 and have not followed their recent trend of falling apart down the stretch of seasons. The thinking here is the Bucs' fortunes will depend largely on the health of QB Jeff Garcia, and there is not much recent evidence to indicate the wellness of his back. On the flip side, how will Giants QB Eli Manning respond to the Bucs' defense?

The AFC features a pair of rematches, and both should be brutally physical games.

Jacksonville won at Pittsburgh three weeks ago, and many observers expect a repeat. How will injuries affect the Steelers, who have lost two starting LTs and RB Willie Parker since the Jaguars defeated them? The Jags make no secret about how they plan to win again - running the football.

San Diego escaped Tennessee with an overtime victory last month, but a lot of bad blood was stirred up in the process. Four players received fines for their actions in the game. Both teams insisted this week that is behind them. The Chargers seem to be hitting their stride at the right time, having won six in a row. The Titans won four of their final five regular-season games. Tennessee, however, has two big injury concerns (literally): run-stuffing DT Albert Haynesworth and QB Vince Young. How will their status affect this game?

NHL Winter Classic was just that

2008-01-03T08:06:00.000-08:00

The NHL is onto something.

Tuesday's outdoor game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Buffalo Sabres at Orchard Park, N.Y., home of the NFL's Buffalo Bills was a hit with players, coaches, fans and TV viewers. The game drew the NHL's highest ratings in 12 years, and it was a captivating spectacle for those who tuned in.

Neither snow, sleet or sometimes shaky ice conditions dampened the enthusiasm surrounding the event. I would like to see this become an annual event, possibly replacing the All-Star Game - as ESPN.com's EJ Hradek has suggested.

Based upon the favorable reviews and ratings, I don't think there is any question the Winter Classic will return.

The question is where next? Traditional hockey markets such as Toronto, Montreal, Detroit, New York, Boston, Chicago and Minnesota seem like the most likely candidates. All have pro-quality outdoor venues that could be converted, as Ralph Wilson Stadium was.

The Winter Classic is a great way for hockey to showcase itself while returning to its roots.

NFL 2007 rewind

2007-12-28T17:13:00.000-08:00

Each NFL season I like to take Week 17 to look back at what the prognosticators, including yours truly, had to say before the season. To review my division-by-division predictions, visit the bottom of the September 2007 archive page.

Legend:
SI = Sports Illustrated
PFW = Pro Football Weekly
TSN = The Sporting News
Me = Yours truly

AFC East

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Patriots Pats Pats Pats
2 Jets Jets Jets Jets
3 Bills Bills Bills Bills
4 Dolphins Fins Fins Fins

Comment: No one saw a potential 16-0 Patriots season, and no one foresaw the Jets’ and Dolphins’ near-complete meltdowns.
From my fingers: “If QB JP Losman trends upward again, the Bills may surprise.” I was half right. Rookie QB Trent Edwards helped the Bills get on track.

AFC North

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Bengals Ravens Bengals Ravens
2 Ravens Bengals Ravens Bengals
3 Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
4 Browns Browns Browns Browns

Comment: No one even came close on this division. The Steelers were a mild surprise and the Browns were a huge one. As disappointing as the Bengals were, the Ravens’ fall from 13-3 to 4-11 is stunning.
From my fingers: “If anyone can get the football to TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards, (the Browns) might be on to something.” But I completely blew this: “I see more questions than answers with (the Steelers).”

AFC South

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Colts Colts Colts Colts
2 Titans Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
3 Jaguars Titans Titans Texans
4 Texans Texans Texans Titans

Comment: PFW and TSN nailed it. I liked Houston to be even more improved than it was, and I figured Tennessee could not overcome all of its offseason losses.
From my fingers: “As much as (Vince Young) runs with the ball, it's hard to imagine he won't get injured at some point, which would make the Titans one of the league's worst teams.” Well, they survived his injuries to contend for a playoff spot and prove me wrong.

AFC West

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
2 Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos
3 Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
4 Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders

Comment: The order was right, but everyone thought the Broncos would be a playoff team. Oops.
From my fingers: “If QB Jay Cutler improves and RB Travis Henry gets healthy, (Denver’s) offense will be high-powered. Stopping the run will be the barometer of the defense, perhaps ultimately the team's success.”

My playoff picks: New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, Denver, New York.
Actual: New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Jacksonville and either Cleveland or Tennessee.

NFC East

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Eagles Eagles Cowboys Cowboys
2 Cowboys Cowboys Eagles Eagles
3 Giants Redskins Giants Redskins
4 Redskins Giants Redskins Giants

Comment: Allow me to gloat about the Cowboys and Redskins, but everyone overrated the Eagles and underrated the Giants.
From my fingers: “A (Giants) team that appears unsettled under Coach Tom Coghlin might come apart at the seems by midseason.” Actually, the Giants were coming together and playing very well at that point.

NFC North

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Bears Bears Bears Bears
2 Packers Packers Packers Packers
3 Vikings Lions Vikings Vikings
4 Lions Vikings Lions Lions

Comment: No one saw the Packers’ rise to 12-3 and the Bears’ fall. The Vikings also rank as a surprise team.
From my fingers: “The Pack has no one, literally, to run the ball, and that will be their undoing. Had they kept Ahman Green or acquired a suitable replacement, they'd be a playoff team.” Meet Ryan Grant everyone.

NFC South

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Saints Saints Saints Saints
2 Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers
3 Bucs Bucs Falcons Bucs
4 Falcons Falcons Bucs Falcons

Comment: This ranks with the AFC North as the surprise division. No one saw the Bucs’ comeback. The Saints probably weren’t as good as they appeared in 2006, nor as bad as they appeared early in 2007. TSN really blew this one – the Bucs last?
From my fingers: “The Panthers get (the No. 2) spot by default because I think the teams below them are horrible. Two years ago, Carolina looked like a budding dynasty, but now it appears to have a lot of holes.” Guess the Bucs weren’t so horrible.

NFC West

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Seahawks Seahawks 49ers Seahawks
2 Rams 49ers Seahawks 49ers
3 49ers Rams Rams Rams
4 Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals

Comment: The injury bug bit the Rams hard, but TSN again takes it on the chin here. Based upon this, the Cardinals have to rank as a surprise team.
From my fingers: “A fashionable pick as a division winner, the 49ers need three things to happen for that to become a reality: Alex Smith must continue to progress at QB (and do so despite his third coordinator in three seasons), RB Frank Gore must stay healthy (he was nicked in preseason and has a lengthy college injury history), and the Niners need some receivers to emerge.” Smith and Gore were hurt, and Smith is beginning to look like a bust.

My playoff teams: Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco
Actual: Dallas, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay, New York and either Washington, Minnesota or New Orleans.

NFL Week 16 preview

2007-12-21T10:08:00.000-08:00

Who says there are no good matchups left this season?

Washington (7-7) at Minnesota (8-6) has NFC wild-card implications and is an elimination game for the Redskins.

The New York Giants (9-5) have to travel to Buffalo (7-7), where once-paralyzed Kevin Everrett is expected to be honored. A Giants loss and wins by New Orleans and Minnesota, and New York would face a must-win vs. the Patriots next Sunday.

Speaking of, the 14-0 Pats host the 1-13 Dolphins. So many story lines here. Undefeated season on the line against the last franchise to accomplish the feat. The presence of former New England coach and Bill Belichick mentor, Bill Parcells, in the Dolphins' front office. Then there is the weather factor.

The battle for NFC playoff positioning continues as well. Dallas has to bounce back on the road at Carolina and retain home-field advantage, while Green Bay looks to exact revenge on one of two teams - Chicago - that defeated it this season.

Seattle, Tampa Bay and San Diego are jockeying for the No. 3 spot in their respective conferences. Jacksonville, Cleveland and Tennessee are battling for AFC wild-card slots.

Upset specials: I see three this week - I think Washington will beat Minnesota to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Vikings were not overly impressive in beating the Bears and have a shorter week. ... I think Houston will surprise Indianapolis, which will rest a lot of players as its locked into the AFC's No. 2 playoff spot. ... And San Francisco will upset visiting Tampa Bay.

Season record on upset picks: 7-8 and in quite a slump.

An Extra Helping of Tuna

2007-12-21T09:21:00.000-08:00

Well, this didn't take very long.

Bill Parcells was masterful in playing the Dolphins against the Falcons this week, ultimately gaining more money and power in the process to run the entire Dolphins football operation less than one year than leaving his job as Cowboys coach.

This isn't the first time the Tuna has had a fishing expedition such as this. His record indicates two things - he won't stay long in Miami (lasted no more than four years in his past three NFL jobs), but the Dolphins will be in far better shape when he departs than when he arrived (all three teams - Patriots, Jets and Cowboys became playoff teams).

What that in mind, I'd like to take a look at the status of the coaches in the NFL. I expect more offseason turnover in the AFC than the NFC this year:

AFC
Baltimore - Yes, Brian Billick has won a Super Bowl, but that was six seasons ago, and the Ravens have lost eight in a row after a 4-10 start. The team is aging at several key positions and there are signs of dissension. This will be the second losing season in three years, wrapped around a 13-3 campaign that ended with a divisional-round playoff loss. It might be time for a change as the Ravens rebuild.
Buffalo - The Bills have overcome numerous injuries and free-agent losses to post a 7-7 record. Dick Jauron has done an excellent job.
Cincinnati - The Bengals have gone from 11 wins to eight to five in the past three seasons. Another team seemingly in disarray, Coach Marvin Lewis might pay.
Cleveland - Romeo Crennel has the Browns at 9-5 and in serious contention for a playoff spot. One more victory, and Cleveland will equal its total from the past two seasons.
Denver - Has the master lost his touch? After not winning fewer than nine games in the past five seasons, Mike Shanahan's Broncos have to win out just to hit seven Ws. More disturbing, they've gone from 13 to 9 to 5 in the win category in spite of annual retooling.
Houston - Year 2 of the Gary Kubiak era has gone well, showing improvement in wins (6 to 7 with two games left) and competitiveness. Keeping the skill position players healthy on offense should lead to further improvement.
Indianapolis - Tony Dungy has the Colts at 12-2 despite numerous injuries, free-agent losses and the Super Bowl champion's target.
Jacksonville - The Jags have bounced back under Jack Del Rio and could make a lot of noise in the playoffs as a wild-card. This team plays to its strengths (running, defense) as well as any. Plus, making the call to release QB Byron Leftwich and go with David Garrard was brilliant, albeit tough.
Kansas City - The Chiefs lost RB Larry Johnson to injury and struggled at QB, but four wins after making the playoffs last season and winning 19 games the past two seasons combined? I think Herm Edwards will get a third season, but it's debatable.
Miami - Cam Cameron has overseen a 1-13 disaster. With Parcells' entrance, I foresee a massive house cleaning.
New England - Bill Belichick can stay as long as he likes, particularly if the Pats go 19-0.
New York - In one season Eric Mangini has gone from "Man-genius" to "Oh Man!" as the Jets have fallen from 10-6 to 3-11. Still, it would be a mild surprise if he was shown the door.
Oakland - It's tough to tell if anything has improved under first-year coach Lane Kiffin. It's not thee 2-14 disaster of 2006, but I think the plan was to win more than four games and establish some semblance of an ascent. Frankly, I would not be shocked if the Raiders switched coaches again. The problem is their talent level is not as deep as they might have thought.
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin was an excellent hire, and the Steelers are heading back to the playoffs with a bit more balance on offense and their trademark defense.
San Diego - After a 1-3 start, the Chargers have hit their stride under Norv Turner, who took a lot of heat early. If the Bolts are healthy, they have the talent to make noise in the playoffs.
Tennessee - Year-in, year-out, the Titans play hard. They'll likely improve on last season's eight wins with middle-of-the-pack talent and could reach the playoffs. Jeff Fisher has reinforced to me that he's one of the best in the business.

NFC
Arizona - Racked by injuries to some of their best players (Matt Leinart, Adrian Wilson, Eric Green and Anquan Boldin), the Cardinals have been much more competitive under first-year coach Ken Whisenhunt.
Atlanta - It just keeps getting worse here. The next coach will have his work cut out for him.
Carolina - The Panthers need to win their final two games to match last season's 8-8 record. They're on their fourth QB of the season, but their defense has been more hit and miss than in the past. Still, John Fox seems safe.
Chicago - Lovie Smith has done a good job with a team that has shown a lot of vulnerabilities due to injuries, a shaky QB situation and some key free-agent losses (RB Thomas Jones and several D linemen).
Dallas - If the Cowboys don't at least reach the Super Bowl or other teams try to poach offensive coordinator to be their head coach, I could see owner Jerry Jones pulling the plug on Wade Phillips and naming Garrett coach.
Detroit - The Lions are improving under Rod Marinelli, but the losing culture that has been so prevalent still needs some overhauling. A 6-2 start has turned into 6-8.
Green Bay - The youngest team in the league has won 16 of its past 18 games since starting 4-8 under Mike McCarthy. Brett Favre looks better, the ground game is coming around and the defense and special teams are special.
Minnesota - Brad Childress has remained patient, stuck with his plan and it's paying off. Minnesota has won five in a row to pull into playoff contention and already has one more win than last season.
New Orleans - The reality is the Saints weren't as good as last season's NFC Championship Game appearance indicated and not as bas as their 0-4 start this season. Sean Payton has adjusted well in the face of injuries to his running backs.
New York - The Giants are picking a bad time of the season to get injured and play poorer. Anything less than a playoff spot and it's fairly certain Tom Coghlin is gone. Even if the G-men reach the playoffs and get smoked in the wild-card round he might be gone.
Philadelphia - Another team that has been hammered by injuries and QB controversies, the Eagles would be crazy to let Andy Reid or QB Donovan McNabb go in the offeseason.
St. Louis - The Rams have been hammered by injuries, too, but the amount of penalties and other mistakes they make indicate some coaching issues. They're going to finish with at least four fewer victories than last season's 8-8 squad, and most of their star players aside from Steven Jackson are hitting the age when a decline is possible. I don't like Scott Linehan's chances.
San Francisco - A lot of the momentum gained from last season's seven victories has been lost, again due in part to injuries at QB and RB. I don't know if this team is as bad as four wins, but it's certainly not a playoff team. Mike Nolan isn't going anywhere, but the 49ers have to improve - a lot - on offense to compete.
Seattle - The Seahawks again won the West, and they have the talent to win a few playoff games and maybe reach the Super Bowl. Mike Holmgren continues to do a very good job and not get a lot of recognition for it.
Tampa Bay - Like him or hate him, Jon Gruden has managed rebuild on the fly and win the South. The South is one of the worst divisions in football, but Tampa has gone from four wins to nine and could finish with 11.
Washington - Joe Gibbs' place is secure, but one wonders how much more he'll put up with. The Sean Taylor slaying rocked the team and the league. The past few editions of the Redskins have been up and down, not a description typically used with past Gibbs teams.

Cleaning up Week 15 in the NFL

2007-12-19T09:37:00.000-08:00

Refreshing play of the week: Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook stopping at the Dallas 1-yard line on a late run to ensure the Eagles could run out the clock and upset the Cowboys, rather than scoring and giving Dallas a slim chance of rallying.

Warrior of the week: Say what you will about the Dolphins this season, but Miami's Jason Taylor willed his team to win its first game. Taylor was all over the field, blocking a field goal, getting two sacks and playing every play as if it was his last during the Dolphins' overtime victory against the Ravens.

Stats of the week: Two of the top four scorers among kickers are rookies - Green Bay's Mason Crosby (first with 130 points) and Dallas' Nick Folk (fourth, 117). ... 11 running backs have topped 1,000 yards rushing thus far, and another 10 are 201 yards or fewer away from the milestone with two weeks to play. Last season, 23 backs topped a grand. ... 14 receivers have surpassed 1,000 yards, and nine more are 100 yards or fewer closer. In 2006, 19 players reached that plateau. Does anyone else see a trend here this season?

Fantasy fodder: Most fantasy football participants load up on running backs early in their drafts. That strategy was not as sound this season as in seasons past. Of the top 11 scorers among non-kickers, five are wide receivers, including Nos. 1, 4 and 5 (Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards).

Pro Bowl picks

2007-12-19T09:24:00.000-08:00

The annual announcement of Pro Bowl selections serves as a good reminder of the role politics plays in that process.

Fan voting is equally weighted with coaches'and players' voting. So while the NFL likes to play up the fact that fans have a say in the process, the reality is coaches and peers have twice as much say.

Some interesting stats' from Tuesday's rosters for the Feb. 10 game:

The Dallas Cowboys, who have the NFL's second-best record (12-2) had 11 players selected. The 14-0 New England Patriots and the AFC West San Diego Chargers (9-5) had eight apiece.

However, the Indianapolis Colts (12-2), had just five players picked, while the Green Bay Packers, also 12-2, had four selections.

Contrast that with the Minnesota Vikings, who had seven players picked despite an 8-6 record and a questionable shot at making the playoffs.

At the other end of the scale, neither the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Bucs nor the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4), the wild-card team no one wants to face, had anyone selected.

Another oddity: the Chicago Bears, last in the NFC North, had four players picked.

Washington Redskins safety Sean Taylor, who died in late November after being shot during a robbery attempt at his Miami-area house, was voted to start at safety for the NFC. Taylor led the NFC in interceptions at the time of his death.

NFL Week 15

2007-12-16T08:44:00.000-08:00

The Christmas rush and a final project for school have hit this week, so it's an abbreviated (and nearly tardy) NFL preview. Look for more frequent postings this week.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Jaguars (9-4) at Steelers (9-4): Two tough, physical teams. Jacksonville will be without DT Marcus Stroud and MLB Mike Peterson, so look for Pittsburgh to run wild at home.

Bills (7-6) at Browns (7-6): Raise your hand if you saw this coming at the start of the season. This amounts to an elimination game for a wild-card spot in the AFC. The Browns' offense is impressive, but they'll have to figure out a way to contain Buffalo's rookie-led running attach.

GAMES OF THE WEAK:
Too many to mention. At one point this week, there were 10 games of points spreads of seven or more points. The league doesn't have parity, it has a lot of terrible teams this season.

UPSET OF THE WEEK:
Titans (7-6) at Chiefs (4-9): Kansas City can't keep losing at home, can it? Tennessee's injuries scare me, and I think the Chiefs are going to pound out a conservative victory and deal the Titans' playoff hopes a blow.

Season record on upset picks: 7-7

NFL Week 14 preview

2007-12-07T13:21:00.001-08:00

It appears that it will take nine victories to have a shot at an NFC wild-card berth, and most likely 10 to make it in the AFC.

With four games remaining for all but Chicago and Washington (who played Thursday night), here is a glance at the playoff pictures in each conference.

NFC
Likely Division Winners (and an automatic playoff berth):
East - Dallas needs one win or one Giants loss. The Cowboys (11-1) have a strong inside track at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs after defeating Green Bay last week.
North - Green Bay needs a win or a tie and a Detroit loss or tie to clinch it. The Packers (10-2) can't get careless because Seattle (8-4) and Tampa Bay (8-4) are still two games back in the race for first-round bye.
South - Tampa Bay's victory over the Saints has it in the driver's seat. A win and combination of losses by the Saints and Panthers puts the Bucs in.
West - Seattle will win another weak division with a victory.

NFC wild-card race
8-4 - N.Y. Giants would have to completely implode to not make it. One victory and a combination of other teams' losses puts them in the postseason.
6-6 - Arizona Detroit, Minnesota ... The Cardinals are really banged up. Detroit has lost four in a row and has to face Dallas, San Diego, Kansas City and Green Bay still. ... Minnesota has come on, Adrian Peterson is seemingly healthy and all four of their remaining games are winnable. Vikings are the best bet.
6-7 - Washington. All the Redskins have to do is win at New York, at Minnesota and close the season by beating Dallas (which might not have much to play for in Week 17) at home. A very, very tall order.
5-7 - Carolina, New Orleans, Philadelphia. I'm not saying it couldn't happen for any of these teams, but the odds seem very long given the teams in the conference they've lost to.
Seasons done
Atlanta (3-9), Chicago (5-8), San Francisco (3-9), St. Louis (3-9)

AFC

Likely Division Winners
East - New England (12-0) has clinched it and barring three losses in four games will have home-field advantage.
South - Indianapolis (10-2) has a huge edge for the division title after its season sweep of Jacksonville. It must beware of Pittsburgh in the race for a first-round bye.
North - Pittsburgh (9-3) needs a victory or a Browns loss to lock it up.
West - San Diego (7-5) needs one victory and one Denver loss to clinch it, which is remarkable after how poorly the Chargers started.
Wild-card race
8-4 - Jacksonville - A very solid team with three very winnable games in their final four.
7-5 - Cleveland, Tennessee. This incarnation of the Browns has played poorly in December, but their schedule (Jets, Bills, Bengals and 49ers) isn't particularly imposing. The Titans not only have San Diego this Sunday and a visit to Kansas City next week, but close with a visit to Indianapolis, which could be playing for a bye. Having said that, the Titans have a better defense, and I like those sorts of teams when the weather turns bad.
6-6 - Buffalo. If either 7-5 team implodes, this is the team to watch for. After Miami, they visit Cleveland, host the Giants and visit Philadelphia. If they win the next two, they'll hold a tie-breaker over the Browns and might catch the banged-up Giants in a meaningless game for playoff position.
Seasons done
Miami (0-12), NY Jets (3-9), Oakland (4-8), Baltimore (4-8), Cincinnati (4-8), Houston (5-7), Denver (5-7)

GAME OF THE WEEK:
Pittsburgh (9-3) at New England (12-0): The obvious choice. Most experts predict this is the week the Patriots could lose after their less-than-stellar performances in Weeks 12-13. The big factor from my point of view will be the weather. If it's bad, the Steelers could pull it off. Pittsburgh certain fits the template for a team that could knock the Pats off their perch. I question if the Steelers can score enough to keep up, however.

GAME OF THE WEAK:
St. Louis (3-9) at Cincinnati (4-8): Injuries ruined the Rams' season, and few teams have been as disappointing as the Bengals (Chicago, New Orleans and Baltimore come to mind, however). It could be a fun game to watch given the explosive potential of the respective offenses.

Upset Special:
New York Jets (3-9) over Cleveland (7-5). I think the Jets' defense can stop or at least slow the Browns' attack, and I think the Jets will run at will on the Browns. The tipping point: the Jets are creating more turnovers of late, and the Browns have had a penchant for a lot of giveaways.

Upset Special Season Record: 7-6

NFL rewind

2007-12-03T17:48:00.000-08:00

Thanks to a friend's generosity, I was able to watch every exciting play from every NFL game on Sunday. Or at least it seemed that way.

I was introduced to NFL Sunday Ticket's Red Zone Channel which updates every game in progress continuously. Much has been made of the eight-game "mix" that Sunday Ticket offers, but RZC is a far, far superior product because you get every highlight as it happens or shortly thereafter for hour upon hour. It's a beautiful thing. ...

What was Saints coach Sean Peyton thinking, calling a double-reverse late in the eventual loss to the Bucs? New Orleans held a 23-20 lead late in the fourth quarter, but Reggie Bush's fumbled exchange gave Tampa Bay the ball and eventually the game. The Bucs, by the way, are for real. They're physical, and Coach Jon Gruden game-planned masterfully for QB Luke McCown, who subbed for the ailing Jeff Garcia. ... The Saints' season is probably done. ...

What was Redskins coach Joe Gibbs thinking? His second time-out call to ice Bills kicker Rian Lindell with seconds left resulted in an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that all but ensured Buffalo would get the winning points on Lindell's field-goal attempt. Gibbs is a Hall of Famer, and his place in the game is secure, but this is the latest game management blunder in a season full of them. Yes, Washington has melted down in the second half numerous times this season, but many of its miscues are inexcusable, particularly for someone with Gibbs' resume. ...

It's time for the NFL, the richest U.S. sports league, to hire full-time officials. Not only are the officials missing calls, but even with instant replay, it certainly seems as if many are going uncorrected. Case in point, Cleveland's Hail Mary pass to Kellen Winslow on Sunday. After a fantastic catch on the final play, Winslow was forced out of the end zone yet that wasn't called, costing the Browns the game. Perhaps it's the stress of working during the week, then working all weekend, that's getting to the officials. Whatever the reason, it's a shame the officiating is sinking in a league with abundant resources to do something about it. ...

If you turn the ball over, you will lose. Turnovers again derailed the Eagles, they put the Browns down two scores early, the Packers down three scores early, they sank the Broncos' comeback hopes, and they left the 49ers with no chance to win.

College football quick kicks

2007-12-03T17:32:00.000-08:00

Several things jumped out at me in the college football world during the past several days:

Has there ever been a worse college head coach than Bill Callahan? He consistently recruited top-10 classes at Nebraska, yet the Huskers' defense, once their calling card, was among the nation's worst. His pro-style offense never caught on, and its debatable the Huskers ever had the correct mix of personnel. Nebraska endured it's worst losing streak since the early 60s and absorbed beatings by Kansas, Missouri, Colorado and Oklahoma State that were virtually unparalleled in school history. But why stop there, the Oakland Raiders have been a shambles since Callahan had his hands on them. That's quite a resume - destroying one of college's most tradition-rich programs on the heels of sending one of the NFL's proudest and winningest franchises into a tailspin it's yet to recover from. ...

Hiring Bo Pelini, a former Huskers assistant and defensive expert, is a step in the right direction, but one wonders how long it will take him to un-do all the messes Callahan created, including alienating in-state prospects. ...

Frankly I don't know what BCS stands for anymore, but if you remove the "C" you're probably in the right zip code. If ever there was a season crying for a playoff (say eight teams), this is it. It doesn't matter which team, LSU or Ohio State, wins the "national championship" game, does anyone really know if those are the two best teams. The NCAA argues against a playoff by saying they're concerned about athletes playing more games. This from an organization that has signed off on the season expanding from 11 games to 12 or 13 in some cases. Simple solution guys: Cut the regular season to 11 games. Hold playoffs the final two Saturdays in December and the first Saturday night in January - college students are on break then anyway so the class time is a non-issue. Keep the traditional bowl games and restore conference affiliations, just put the top eight teams into a playoff aligned with seven "BCS" bowls. ...

UCLA's Karl Dorrell, fired as coach Monday, got a raw deal. Bob Toledo left the Bruins a mess on and off the field. Dorrell cleaned up the latter, guided UCLA to five consecutive bowl games and from all accounts had changed the culture around the program. He even managed to beat USC last season and spoil the Trojans' title hopes in the process. Apparently it wasn't enough. True, the Bruins talent level never approached USC's, but whose does most seasons? UCLA seems to be on the right track on a lot of fronts, too bad Dorrell won't be around to watch it. ...

Another nice job by ESPN reporting rumors on Saturday. This time it incurred the wrath of LSU coach Les Miles, who may or may not have been headed to Michigan to replace Lloyd Carr. On Sunday, analyst Kirk Herbstreit admitted he was wrong. Gee, maybe Sportscenter can lead with that. ...

Gearing up for Bowl Season and wondering what a team has to do to NOT get invited to a bowl these days.

NFL Week 13 preview

2007-12-01T14:36:00.000-08:00

What does the NFL season's final month hold? Will a team overcome a shaky first two-thirds of the season and rally for a playoff spot? Will a team that has started strong limp to the finish?

Here are some predictions of teams that could make a run and others that could fall flat and how that pertains to this week's games.

Moving up in the NFC
Philadelphia (5-6) - The Eagles' aggressive approach nearly knocked off the Patriots, and the guess here is they will continue that approach against Seattle on Sunday.
Chicago (5-6) - The Bears have to rely on Rex Grossman because RB Cedric Benson is injured. Is Chicago doomed? Maybe not. The Bears' pass rush is outstanding, they win games in the fourth quarter and they're not making the mistakes they made earlier in the season.

Moving down in the NFC
Detroit (6-5) - The Lions have lost three in a row, and the Vikings might well make that four on Sunday. Detroit can't run the ball, can't protect QB Jon Kitna and can't defend the pass. It won earlier in the season by dominating the turnover battle. That can't continue.
New York Giants (7-4) - Yup, the annual implosion is well underway, and injuries to their running backs and defense won't help. If the Giants' pass rush lets up at all, their secondary will be exposed. A loss to the Bears on Sunday would dent the Giants' attitude further and add to the heat on QB Eli Manning.

Moving up in the AFC
San Diego (6-5) - Yes, the Chargers have an inside track at winning the West, but at some point they have to figure out that getting the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson more is their wisest strategy. Two reasons for optimism - the defense has regained its teeth and should dominate a banged up Chiefs team, and WR Chris Chambers is beginning to make an impact on the offense.
Cleveland (7-4) - The Browns boast an explosive offense and a defense that is in the top-10 in takeaways. They're for real as a wild-card team, and if the Steelers stumble again (and they have the Patriots on deck), the Browns will be in the thick of the North title race.

Moving down in the AFC
Tennessee (6-5) - The Titans' defense has gone from dominating to sub-par in three weeks. Their ability to run the ball has seemingly vanished. And their final four games include matchups against the Chargers, Colts and Chiefs.
Denver (5-6) - The Broncos' loss at Chicago last Sunday was the type that can demoralize a team, particularly one that has been as inconsistent this season as Denver has. Three of their final five games are within the division, and the other two games appear winnable, but their inability to stop the run could be a problem vs. all five foes.

Game of the Week
Jacksonville (8-3) at Indianapolis (9-2) - Playing at home and having an 11-day since their last game favors the Colts, who must set the tone early. If the game turns into a slowed-down slugfest, the Jaguars will have a good chance of grabbing a share of the AFC South lead.

Game of the Weak:
N.Y. Jets (2-9) at Miami (0-11) - Is this the week the Dolphins finally win? Both teams are decimated by injuries, but Miami more so. They're on their third quarterback of the season, fourth running back and have been missing MLB Zach Thomas because of concussion-related headaches. Still, this is probably the Fins' best chance to win this season because the Jets are equally inept on offense and defense, ranking 30th in the league in both.

Upset Special, Part II: Yes, the elements were horrible on Monday night, but the Steelers nearly lost to a Miami team they have three times more talent than. Cincinnati is playing better, particularly on offense. I think the Bengals will win a shootout at Pittsburgh.
Season upset record: 7-5

Matchup of the Season, Part 2

2007-11-27T21:53:00.000-08:00

A disclosure: I am a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan. I grew up less than a mile from Lambeau Field, and aside from a brief affair with the Vikings during my grade-school years (I've since received treatment for this ailment), I've stuck with the Green and Gold.

What to make of Thursday night's matchup of 10-1 teams Dallas and Green Bay?

For one, these two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the NFC, and this should be an NFC Championship Game preview and dictate home-field advantage for the playoffs.

Some things to watch for:

*How will the Packers defend tight end Jason Witten? Top-echelon TEs have gashed Green Bay's defense this season.
*Can the Cowboys slow the Packers' outside pass rush combination of Aaron Kampman and Kabeer-Gbaja Biamila?
*Which team will do a better job establishing the running game and take the heat off their quarterback? The signs point to Dallas, but Ryan Grant is emerging for the Packers.
*Who will win the Al Harris-Terrell Owens matchup? This should be the most compelling individual matchup of the game.

The oddsmakers like the Cowboys by a touchdown. I disagree. I think the Packers' pressure will rattle Dallas quarterback Tony Romo into making mistakes, and I anticipate Brett Favre gradually picking the Cowboys secondary apart. Green Bay is five deep at wide receiver and TE Donald Lee is emerging.

My first upset special of the week: Packers 34, Cowboys 27
Season record in upset picks: 7-4