A disclosure: I am a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan. I grew up less than a mile from Lambeau Field, and aside from a brief affair with the Vikings during my grade-school years (I've since received treatment for this ailment), I've stuck with the Green and Gold.
What to make of Thursday night's matchup of 10-1 teams Dallas and Green Bay?
For one, these two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the NFC, and this should be an NFC Championship Game preview and dictate home-field advantage for the playoffs.
Some things to watch for:
*How will the Packers defend tight end Jason Witten? Top-echelon TEs have gashed Green Bay's defense this season.
*Can the Cowboys slow the Packers' outside pass rush combination of Aaron Kampman and Kabeer-Gbaja Biamila?
*Which team will do a better job establishing the running game and take the heat off their quarterback? The signs point to Dallas, but Ryan Grant is emerging for the Packers.
*Who will win the Al Harris-Terrell Owens matchup? This should be the most compelling individual matchup of the game.
The oddsmakers like the Cowboys by a touchdown. I disagree. I think the Packers' pressure will rattle Dallas quarterback Tony Romo into making mistakes, and I anticipate Brett Favre gradually picking the Cowboys secondary apart. Green Bay is five deep at wide receiver and TE Donald Lee is emerging.
My first upset special of the week: Packers 34, Cowboys 27
Season record in upset picks: 7-4
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
A nightmare season
Can it get any worse for the NFL?
Tuesday's death of Redskins safety Sean Taylor, a 2006 Pro Bowl selection, is another low point in a season full of them. While many of the details of the shooting that ultimately cost Taylor his life have yet to come to light, what has been reported is scary. Little more than a week ago, Taylor's home was burglarized and a knife was left, reportedly on Taylor's pillow, by the robber.
Taylor is the fourth active NFL player to die in 2007.
It started Jan. 1 with Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams being shot to death in a limo just hours after Denver's season-ending loss on New Year's Eve. Broncos teammate Damien Nash collapsed and died after a charity basketball game a few months later. And during the summer, Patriots defensive lineman Marquis Hill drowned.
The league's image also has taken a beating thanks to the Michael Vick dog-fighting case, the Patriots' "spy-gate" revelation and the growing chorus of former players coming forward with major health problems and decrying a lack of support from the league and its players union.
While those stories are bad news, they pale in comparison to the deaths of four young men, all aged 24, with lives full of promise ahead of them.
Tuesday's death of Redskins safety Sean Taylor, a 2006 Pro Bowl selection, is another low point in a season full of them. While many of the details of the shooting that ultimately cost Taylor his life have yet to come to light, what has been reported is scary. Little more than a week ago, Taylor's home was burglarized and a knife was left, reportedly on Taylor's pillow, by the robber.
Taylor is the fourth active NFL player to die in 2007.
It started Jan. 1 with Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams being shot to death in a limo just hours after Denver's season-ending loss on New Year's Eve. Broncos teammate Damien Nash collapsed and died after a charity basketball game a few months later. And during the summer, Patriots defensive lineman Marquis Hill drowned.
The league's image also has taken a beating thanks to the Michael Vick dog-fighting case, the Patriots' "spy-gate" revelation and the growing chorus of former players coming forward with major health problems and decrying a lack of support from the league and its players union.
While those stories are bad news, they pale in comparison to the deaths of four young men, all aged 24, with lives full of promise ahead of them.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
It's Miller Time
Dennis Miller is back on TV with a new show, Sports Unfiltered, on the Versus network.
It's a decent idea - combine Miller's humor with sports. He was far better on Monday Night Football than Tony Kornheiser is, and he seems to know just how far he can go without completely stepping over the line.
The show features a standup routine by Miller at the beginning, which has been hit and miss the past few weeks, usually three interviews, a look at NFL betting lines and sports photos of the week.
The interviews are mixed - Miller was excellent with Jose Canseco, for example, and Tennessee hoops coach Bruce Pearl - two people he wasn't as familiar with. But with athletes he obviously knows, such as Warren Sapp and Charles Barkley, he's come across as more patronizing and uncomfortable. The sad part about that is those are two guys you want to just talk and carry the conversation because they're so clever to begin with.
I could do without his weekly Vegas/betting segment, but Miller's Photo Finish is one of the funniest things on TV. It's reminisicent of a feature from his HBO show, which was excellent.
It's a show well worth watching, but I think there is room for improvement.
It's a decent idea - combine Miller's humor with sports. He was far better on Monday Night Football than Tony Kornheiser is, and he seems to know just how far he can go without completely stepping over the line.
The show features a standup routine by Miller at the beginning, which has been hit and miss the past few weeks, usually three interviews, a look at NFL betting lines and sports photos of the week.
The interviews are mixed - Miller was excellent with Jose Canseco, for example, and Tennessee hoops coach Bruce Pearl - two people he wasn't as familiar with. But with athletes he obviously knows, such as Warren Sapp and Charles Barkley, he's come across as more patronizing and uncomfortable. The sad part about that is those are two guys you want to just talk and carry the conversation because they're so clever to begin with.
I could do without his weekly Vegas/betting segment, but Miller's Photo Finish is one of the funniest things on TV. It's reminisicent of a feature from his HBO show, which was excellent.
It's a show well worth watching, but I think there is room for improvement.
Turkey Day Football
Face it, you're going to watch a lot of football before, during and after you eat a lot of food today!
Some things to look for:
Green Bay (9-1) can all but clinch the NFC North with a victory at Detroit (6-4). Key matchups - the Packers' pass rush (fifth-most sacks) vs. the Lions' woeful pass blocking (32nd); Detroit's passing game (7th in yards) vs. the Packers' pass defense (19th in yards); and the Packers' passing game (2nd) vs. the Lions' pass defense (30th). Anything can happen, particularly in Detroit on Thanksgiving, but it's tough to see an upset here unless the Packers are careless with the football.
N.Y. Jets (2-8) at Dallas (9-1) appears to be the most clear-cut of Thursday's games. The Jets have the fourth-worst defense in the league, and the Cowboys feature a balanced offense that is rated second in the NFL. The Jets will have to score a lot of points to win, and I don't see that happening without injured WR Lavernues Coles.
The trap game is the night game - Indianapolis (8-2) at Atlanta (3-7). Both teams are banged up, but the Falcons are really struggling with their line play. It won't be pretty, but I expect the Colts to run the ball up the middle a lot given that the Falcons' starting DTs are out for the season. Still, the Colts should have more margin for error (if you can believe this) against the Falcons than they had vs. the Chargers a few weeks back.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Some things to look for:
Green Bay (9-1) can all but clinch the NFC North with a victory at Detroit (6-4). Key matchups - the Packers' pass rush (fifth-most sacks) vs. the Lions' woeful pass blocking (32nd); Detroit's passing game (7th in yards) vs. the Packers' pass defense (19th in yards); and the Packers' passing game (2nd) vs. the Lions' pass defense (30th). Anything can happen, particularly in Detroit on Thanksgiving, but it's tough to see an upset here unless the Packers are careless with the football.
N.Y. Jets (2-8) at Dallas (9-1) appears to be the most clear-cut of Thursday's games. The Jets have the fourth-worst defense in the league, and the Cowboys feature a balanced offense that is rated second in the NFL. The Jets will have to score a lot of points to win, and I don't see that happening without injured WR Lavernues Coles.
The trap game is the night game - Indianapolis (8-2) at Atlanta (3-7). Both teams are banged up, but the Falcons are really struggling with their line play. It won't be pretty, but I expect the Colts to run the ball up the middle a lot given that the Falcons' starting DTs are out for the season. Still, the Colts should have more margin for error (if you can believe this) against the Falcons than they had vs. the Chargers a few weeks back.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Friday, November 16, 2007
NFL Week 11 preview
There are a number of intraconference games this weekend that could have a bearing on the playoff picture. I will highlight these by conference.
GAME OF THE WEEK:
Washington (5-4) at Dallas (8-1): The Redskins can help their cause with a victory, but it won't be easy against a Cowboys team that has the second-rated offense and the seventh-rated defense in the NFL. Washington must get its ground game (8th in the NFL) going to control the clock and keep Dallas' high-powered offense off the field. Both teams are stout vs. the run (Dallas allows 86.8 yards per game, while Washington gives up 99.9 ypg). Both teams are much more susceptible to the pass, which gives the Cowboys a distinct advantage. Not having CB Carlos Rodgers and S Sean Taylor will hurt Washington.
GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
NFC
New York (6-3) at Detroit (6-3): A collision of second-place teams coming off losses, both of which would be wild-card teams if the playoffs started today. The Giants must protect the ball - the Lions lead the league in takeaways despite having the 26th-ranked defense. The Giants lead the league in sacks and are in the top ten in pass and run defense. That's not good news for a Lions offense that is third worst in rushing the ball and has allowed the most sacks in the league.
Chicago (4-5) at Seattle (5-4): This is a game the Bears need if they want a shot at returning to the playoffs. The West-leading Seahawks likely will come out throwing, which plays to the Bears' strength on defense. These are not your mother's Monsters of the Midway, however. The Bears' defense is not even in the top 20 this season.
Carolina (4-5) at Green Bay (8-1): Carolina, which is one game out of first in the South despite its record, has not generated much of a passing game due to injuries at quarterback, but Green Bay has been solid vs. the run (allowing fewer than 93 yards per game). Can the Panthers' slow Brett Favre and his fleet of young receivers enough to keep it close?
AFC
Cleveland (5-4) at Baltimore (4-5): If the current Browns win, it's a season sweep for them over the former Browns. After watching the way Pittsburgh threw the ball all over the Ravens two weeks ago, one has to like Cleveland's chances. Running the ball generally has not been a wise choice vs. the Ravens this season (73.7 ypg). The Ravens' offense is in the hands of Kyle Boller, and they must improve their scoring efficiency (they've got the fourth-fewest points in the league). They'll get opportunities vs. the leaky Browns defense.
San Diego (5-4) at Jacksonville (6-3): A wise person told me this about the Chargers - they had six picks off Peyton Manning, had two return touchdowns and benefited from two missed FGs by a likely Hall of Famer ... and still were lucky to beat the Colts last week. This could be a good game for Bolts QB Philip Rivers to get on track because Jacksonville struggles at times on pass defense. The Jags get QB David Garrard back but are missing DT Marcus Stroud, who is suspended. Jacksonville has the league's No. 3 rushing offense (142 ypg).
Kansas City (4-5) at Indianapolis (7-2): The Chiefs turn over the QB reins to Brodie Croyle, but he'll have to make due without RB Larry Johnson. The Colts return home with a two-game losing streak and without Pro Bowl DE Dwight Freeney, who is out for the season because of a foot injury. If the Colts get TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison back from injury, they'll exploit the Chiefs secondary.
GAME OF THE WEAK
St. Louis (1-8) at San Francisco (2-7): Remember back when this was one of the NFL's best rivalries? Both teams have been decimated by injuries, but the Rams are getting healthier at the skill positions.
UPSET SPECIAL
Tennessee (6-3) at Denver (4-5): The Broncos are at home and are favored, but it's tough to see them running on the Titans or containing Vince Young, who showed signs of life last week.
Season record in upset picks: 7-3
GAME OF THE WEEK:
Washington (5-4) at Dallas (8-1): The Redskins can help their cause with a victory, but it won't be easy against a Cowboys team that has the second-rated offense and the seventh-rated defense in the NFL. Washington must get its ground game (8th in the NFL) going to control the clock and keep Dallas' high-powered offense off the field. Both teams are stout vs. the run (Dallas allows 86.8 yards per game, while Washington gives up 99.9 ypg). Both teams are much more susceptible to the pass, which gives the Cowboys a distinct advantage. Not having CB Carlos Rodgers and S Sean Taylor will hurt Washington.
GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
NFC
New York (6-3) at Detroit (6-3): A collision of second-place teams coming off losses, both of which would be wild-card teams if the playoffs started today. The Giants must protect the ball - the Lions lead the league in takeaways despite having the 26th-ranked defense. The Giants lead the league in sacks and are in the top ten in pass and run defense. That's not good news for a Lions offense that is third worst in rushing the ball and has allowed the most sacks in the league.
Chicago (4-5) at Seattle (5-4): This is a game the Bears need if they want a shot at returning to the playoffs. The West-leading Seahawks likely will come out throwing, which plays to the Bears' strength on defense. These are not your mother's Monsters of the Midway, however. The Bears' defense is not even in the top 20 this season.
Carolina (4-5) at Green Bay (8-1): Carolina, which is one game out of first in the South despite its record, has not generated much of a passing game due to injuries at quarterback, but Green Bay has been solid vs. the run (allowing fewer than 93 yards per game). Can the Panthers' slow Brett Favre and his fleet of young receivers enough to keep it close?
AFC
Cleveland (5-4) at Baltimore (4-5): If the current Browns win, it's a season sweep for them over the former Browns. After watching the way Pittsburgh threw the ball all over the Ravens two weeks ago, one has to like Cleveland's chances. Running the ball generally has not been a wise choice vs. the Ravens this season (73.7 ypg). The Ravens' offense is in the hands of Kyle Boller, and they must improve their scoring efficiency (they've got the fourth-fewest points in the league). They'll get opportunities vs. the leaky Browns defense.
San Diego (5-4) at Jacksonville (6-3): A wise person told me this about the Chargers - they had six picks off Peyton Manning, had two return touchdowns and benefited from two missed FGs by a likely Hall of Famer ... and still were lucky to beat the Colts last week. This could be a good game for Bolts QB Philip Rivers to get on track because Jacksonville struggles at times on pass defense. The Jags get QB David Garrard back but are missing DT Marcus Stroud, who is suspended. Jacksonville has the league's No. 3 rushing offense (142 ypg).
Kansas City (4-5) at Indianapolis (7-2): The Chiefs turn over the QB reins to Brodie Croyle, but he'll have to make due without RB Larry Johnson. The Colts return home with a two-game losing streak and without Pro Bowl DE Dwight Freeney, who is out for the season because of a foot injury. If the Colts get TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison back from injury, they'll exploit the Chiefs secondary.
GAME OF THE WEAK
St. Louis (1-8) at San Francisco (2-7): Remember back when this was one of the NFL's best rivalries? Both teams have been decimated by injuries, but the Rams are getting healthier at the skill positions.
UPSET SPECIAL
Tennessee (6-3) at Denver (4-5): The Broncos are at home and are favored, but it's tough to see them running on the Titans or containing Vince Young, who showed signs of life last week.
Season record in upset picks: 7-3
Friday, November 09, 2007
NFL Week 10 preview
We'll learn more about how several divisions could shake out this weekend because there are several intradivisional matchups highlighting the schedule.
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Dallas (7-1) at New York Giants (6-2): Can the Giants run their winning streak to seven and avenge a season-opening loss? Their defense is vastly improved, particularly against the pass, since the Cowboys beat them. The combination of a hostile environment, possible adverse weather and the Giant's ferocious pass rush will pose a stiff test for QB Tony Romo. However, Dallas' defense also is improving, and QB Eli Manning must avoid mistakes as well because the Cowboys can strike quickly.
Jacksonville (5-3) at Tennessee (6-2): This should be the week's most punishing game, with each team trying to establish the run to overcome awful passing games. The Titans have the top run defense in the NFL and some momentum. The Jaguars, who already have lost to the Titans this season, badly need a victory here.
GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
Cleveland (5-3) at Pittsburgh (6-2): Think this is a black-and-blue game? Think again. These teams both have top-10 offenses. Both can run or pass, and both have physical offensive lines. The difference? The Steelers have the league's top-ranked defense, while the Browns' is ranked 31st.
Indianapolis (7-1) at San Diego (4-4): How will the Colts bounce back from their loss to the Patriots? The guess here is by running the ball because WR Anthony Gonzalez is out, and TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison are questionable. The Colts will have to slow RB LaDainian Tomlinson. A key matchup will be how San Diego protects QB Philip Rivers, who has been rattled more this season, against Indy's speedy defensive line.
Denver (3-5) at Kansas City (4-4): The Broncos' problem isn't picking up yards (they're 12th in the NFL), but scoring (they're 28th). The Chiefs have allowed the eighth-fewest points, have a potent pass rush and play the run well. KC can really helps its cause with a win. Denver, which has a banged up QB in Jay Cutler, must win or its season could go down the drain in a hurry.
GAME OF THE WEAK:
Buffalo (4-4) at Miami (0-8): The Bills have the 31st-ranked offense and the 29th-rated defense yet they're .500. Welcome to the awful AFC East.
UPSET SPECIAL
Atlanta, which has shown a pulse recently, knocks off Carolina, which has struggled at home and been unable to get the ball in the hands of its best player, WR Steve Smith.
Year-to-date record on upsets: 6-3
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Dallas (7-1) at New York Giants (6-2): Can the Giants run their winning streak to seven and avenge a season-opening loss? Their defense is vastly improved, particularly against the pass, since the Cowboys beat them. The combination of a hostile environment, possible adverse weather and the Giant's ferocious pass rush will pose a stiff test for QB Tony Romo. However, Dallas' defense also is improving, and QB Eli Manning must avoid mistakes as well because the Cowboys can strike quickly.
Jacksonville (5-3) at Tennessee (6-2): This should be the week's most punishing game, with each team trying to establish the run to overcome awful passing games. The Titans have the top run defense in the NFL and some momentum. The Jaguars, who already have lost to the Titans this season, badly need a victory here.
GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
Cleveland (5-3) at Pittsburgh (6-2): Think this is a black-and-blue game? Think again. These teams both have top-10 offenses. Both can run or pass, and both have physical offensive lines. The difference? The Steelers have the league's top-ranked defense, while the Browns' is ranked 31st.
Indianapolis (7-1) at San Diego (4-4): How will the Colts bounce back from their loss to the Patriots? The guess here is by running the ball because WR Anthony Gonzalez is out, and TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison are questionable. The Colts will have to slow RB LaDainian Tomlinson. A key matchup will be how San Diego protects QB Philip Rivers, who has been rattled more this season, against Indy's speedy defensive line.
Denver (3-5) at Kansas City (4-4): The Broncos' problem isn't picking up yards (they're 12th in the NFL), but scoring (they're 28th). The Chiefs have allowed the eighth-fewest points, have a potent pass rush and play the run well. KC can really helps its cause with a win. Denver, which has a banged up QB in Jay Cutler, must win or its season could go down the drain in a hurry.
GAME OF THE WEAK:
Buffalo (4-4) at Miami (0-8): The Bills have the 31st-ranked offense and the 29th-rated defense yet they're .500. Welcome to the awful AFC East.
UPSET SPECIAL
Atlanta, which has shown a pulse recently, knocks off Carolina, which has struggled at home and been unable to get the ball in the hands of its best player, WR Steve Smith.
Year-to-date record on upsets: 6-3
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Plus/minus
A look at the good and bad in the NHL:
PLUS
To the New York Islanders, especially Coach Ted Nolan, for inviting legendary coach Al Arbour lead the team this past Saturday night. The Isles won and Arbour reached 1,500 games coached in the process. What I really like about this is the respect Nolan has for his field and the team's history. And respect is something the game can always use more of.
MINUS
To the Buffalo Sabres, who, after letting co-captains Daniel Briere and Chris Drury leave via free agency to Eastern Conference rivals, sank to a new low with their treatment of defenseman Teppo Numminen. The pleasant Finn, nicknamed Repo, underwent a second heart surgery before the season started. The Sabres decided to pinch pennies (relatively speaking) and suspend the assistant captain so they wouldn't have to pay him! Contrast this with Edmonton, another small market team, and one that is right up against the salary cap this season. The Oilers continue to pay forward Fernando Pisani as he battles a season-long infection that has cast some doubt about his playing future.
PLUS
To the New York Islanders, especially Coach Ted Nolan, for inviting legendary coach Al Arbour lead the team this past Saturday night. The Isles won and Arbour reached 1,500 games coached in the process. What I really like about this is the respect Nolan has for his field and the team's history. And respect is something the game can always use more of.
MINUS
To the Buffalo Sabres, who, after letting co-captains Daniel Briere and Chris Drury leave via free agency to Eastern Conference rivals, sank to a new low with their treatment of defenseman Teppo Numminen. The pleasant Finn, nicknamed Repo, underwent a second heart surgery before the season started. The Sabres decided to pinch pennies (relatively speaking) and suspend the assistant captain so they wouldn't have to pay him! Contrast this with Edmonton, another small market team, and one that is right up against the salary cap this season. The Oilers continue to pay forward Fernando Pisani as he battles a season-long infection that has cast some doubt about his playing future.
Friday, November 02, 2007
What ails the Stanley Cup champs?
Caught my second Anaheim Ducks game of the season in person last night, and I've noticed a four trends about the defending Stanley Cup champions.
1. They're sound defensively. They held Columbus to 20 shots in regulation and overtime combined. I've seen both goalies - J.S. Giguere and Ilya Bryzgalov - play, and both were steady.
2. Their power play is out of sync even with the return of defenseman Mathieu Schneider. It spends way too much time on the perimeter and rarely gets players in position to bang home rebounds in the slot.
3. They lack finishers on the wings. Aside from Chris Kunitz, Corey Perry (who battles some inconsistency in my opinion) and sometimes Rob Niedermayer, they don't have wingers with a scorer's touch. This is where the losses of Teemu Selanne (retirement) and Dustin Penner (free agency) are being really felt.
4. They're as physical as ever and won't back down from anyone. That's both good and bad. Against the Blue Jackets it meant they spent about half the game killing off penalties.
1. They're sound defensively. They held Columbus to 20 shots in regulation and overtime combined. I've seen both goalies - J.S. Giguere and Ilya Bryzgalov - play, and both were steady.
2. Their power play is out of sync even with the return of defenseman Mathieu Schneider. It spends way too much time on the perimeter and rarely gets players in position to bang home rebounds in the slot.
3. They lack finishers on the wings. Aside from Chris Kunitz, Corey Perry (who battles some inconsistency in my opinion) and sometimes Rob Niedermayer, they don't have wingers with a scorer's touch. This is where the losses of Teemu Selanne (retirement) and Dustin Penner (free agency) are being really felt.
4. They're as physical as ever and won't back down from anyone. That's both good and bad. Against the Blue Jackets it meant they spent about half the game killing off penalties.
NFL Week 9 preview
I'd like to start by discussing a game we've been waiting all season for - Falcons vs. 49ers, a clash of two teams with a combined 3-11 record.
OK, kidding there.
When it comes to the NFL this week, there is one game front and center for everyone - the clash of undefeateds - Patriots at Colts. These are the two best teams in the league at this point and owners of two of the past three championships.
The game has been analyzed to death already this week, so I want to point out a few trends I've spotted that might play a role in the outcome. Many believe the Patriots will win, but I'm not so sure.
While the Patriots have been blowing teams out week-in, week-out this season, it's important to note the quality of their competition. The combined record of their foes is 24-34, though they did beat 6-1 Dallas soundly on the road. The Colts, meanwhile, have beaten teams with a combined mark of 27-24 and are coming off road victories over 5-2 Jacksonville and 4-3 Carolina.
The physical factor: For some reason, the Colts are perceived as a "soft" team in some corners. It might have something to do with the calm demeanor of Coach Tony Dungy or their inability to stop the run LAST season, but the aforementioned road victories came against two of the most physical teams in the league. And safety Bob Sanders says new cornerbacks Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson have added a physical element to the secondary.
No one disputes the Patriots' toughness, but receivers Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth have not faced a lot of physical opposition thus far. And Moss, if you may recall, has a long history of pouting when things haven't gone his way. A few hard hits or missed connections might knock him off his game.
Both teams have exceptional offensive lines, probably the most underrated units on each team. Which team can generate the better pass rush will have a huge say in which team wins. The Patriots will send an array of blitzes at Peyton Manning, but that plays to his strengths. I look for the Colts to give Tom Brady a steady diet of DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
And what of the running games? If Lawrence Maroney is healthy, it's a big boost for the Patriots. I think Coach Bill Belichick is going to try to run the ball on the Colts and keep Manning off the field. However, Joseph Addai of the Colts is at least as impressive and he is another key player in this matchup. If he finds room to run, the Colts can keep the Patriots defense a bit off balance.
Three other things to watch for:
The Patriots start fast, and the Colts have started slow this season. However, the Patriots took a 21-3 lead in the AFC Championship Game last season, but the Colts rallied to win.
The Colts are playing at home.
The Colts have the best clutch kicker in the game - Adam Vinitieri, a four-time Super Bowl winner, including three with the Patriots.
My upset special is the Colts beating the Patriots, who are favored by five points.
Upset season record: 6-2
Last week's schedule of games didn't thrill me. This week, however, has an exceptional lineup, so there are several Games Worth a Peak.
Green Bay (6-1) at Kansas City (4-3): Two surprise division leaders meet, and both have teams breathing right down their necks in their divisions. What does QB Brett Favre do for an encore after Monday's heroics? He'll have to be sharp against the Chiefs, who likely will try to control the clock by running Larry Johnson. This could be a real defensive slugfest with one mistake making the difference. Another factor: the Chiefs are rested and the Packers played on the road on Monday night.
Two interconference South battles:
Jacksonville (5-2) at New Orleans (3-4): The Saints ain't dead yet. Winners of three in a row, they're going to have a tough time making it four against the Jaguars and their stout defense. Jacksonville, meanwhile, will rely on its running game - headed by Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor - to try to keep QB Drew Brees and RB Reggie Bush off the field as much as possible.
Carolina (4-3) at Tennessee (5-2): The Panthers have relied on the run since QB Jake Delhomme was lost for the season. Unfortunately for them, the Titans have the league's top run defense. Titans QB Vince Young has appeared out of sorts, and the Panthers have the speed on defense to contain him. This will be a physical, low-scoring game unless Carolina can somehow get WR Steve Smith involved.
Trivia Time: What AFL team did both John Brodie and Mike Ditka sign with (though never play for) in 1966?
PRIME TIME TREATS:
Both night games this week offer intense, intradivisional rivalries.
Sunday - Dallas (6-1) at Philadelphia (3-4): The Cowboys are rested, and a road victory here would keep them in the NFC East driver's seat. Dallas will need to run the ball some on Philadelphia's improved run defense. The Cowboys shaky secondary presents an opportunity for QB Donovan McNabb. The Eagles are in danger of irrelevance in the division if they lose another home divisional game.
Monday - Baltimore (4-3) at Pittsburgh (5-2): The Ravens don't appear to be the team many (including me) thought they would be - road losses to improving Cleveland and Buffalo demonstrate that. Pittsburgh has the necessary run/pass balance on offense to keep the Ravens honest. The Ravens offense again is struggling, so their defense is going to have to pressure QB Ben Roethlisberger and hope for turnovers.
GAMES OF THE WEAK:
San Francisco (2-5) at Atlanta (1-6): What do you get when you add two teams with zero starting-caliber quarterbacks? This.
Houston (3-5) at Oakland (2-5): This is a good lesson about why you can't get too excited about teams that start fast. These were division leaders five weeks ago.
Trivia answer: The Houston Oilers
OK, kidding there.
When it comes to the NFL this week, there is one game front and center for everyone - the clash of undefeateds - Patriots at Colts. These are the two best teams in the league at this point and owners of two of the past three championships.
The game has been analyzed to death already this week, so I want to point out a few trends I've spotted that might play a role in the outcome. Many believe the Patriots will win, but I'm not so sure.
While the Patriots have been blowing teams out week-in, week-out this season, it's important to note the quality of their competition. The combined record of their foes is 24-34, though they did beat 6-1 Dallas soundly on the road. The Colts, meanwhile, have beaten teams with a combined mark of 27-24 and are coming off road victories over 5-2 Jacksonville and 4-3 Carolina.
The physical factor: For some reason, the Colts are perceived as a "soft" team in some corners. It might have something to do with the calm demeanor of Coach Tony Dungy or their inability to stop the run LAST season, but the aforementioned road victories came against two of the most physical teams in the league. And safety Bob Sanders says new cornerbacks Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson have added a physical element to the secondary.
No one disputes the Patriots' toughness, but receivers Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth have not faced a lot of physical opposition thus far. And Moss, if you may recall, has a long history of pouting when things haven't gone his way. A few hard hits or missed connections might knock him off his game.
Both teams have exceptional offensive lines, probably the most underrated units on each team. Which team can generate the better pass rush will have a huge say in which team wins. The Patriots will send an array of blitzes at Peyton Manning, but that plays to his strengths. I look for the Colts to give Tom Brady a steady diet of DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
And what of the running games? If Lawrence Maroney is healthy, it's a big boost for the Patriots. I think Coach Bill Belichick is going to try to run the ball on the Colts and keep Manning off the field. However, Joseph Addai of the Colts is at least as impressive and he is another key player in this matchup. If he finds room to run, the Colts can keep the Patriots defense a bit off balance.
Three other things to watch for:
The Patriots start fast, and the Colts have started slow this season. However, the Patriots took a 21-3 lead in the AFC Championship Game last season, but the Colts rallied to win.
The Colts are playing at home.
The Colts have the best clutch kicker in the game - Adam Vinitieri, a four-time Super Bowl winner, including three with the Patriots.
My upset special is the Colts beating the Patriots, who are favored by five points.
Upset season record: 6-2
Last week's schedule of games didn't thrill me. This week, however, has an exceptional lineup, so there are several Games Worth a Peak.
Green Bay (6-1) at Kansas City (4-3): Two surprise division leaders meet, and both have teams breathing right down their necks in their divisions. What does QB Brett Favre do for an encore after Monday's heroics? He'll have to be sharp against the Chiefs, who likely will try to control the clock by running Larry Johnson. This could be a real defensive slugfest with one mistake making the difference. Another factor: the Chiefs are rested and the Packers played on the road on Monday night.
Two interconference South battles:
Jacksonville (5-2) at New Orleans (3-4): The Saints ain't dead yet. Winners of three in a row, they're going to have a tough time making it four against the Jaguars and their stout defense. Jacksonville, meanwhile, will rely on its running game - headed by Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor - to try to keep QB Drew Brees and RB Reggie Bush off the field as much as possible.
Carolina (4-3) at Tennessee (5-2): The Panthers have relied on the run since QB Jake Delhomme was lost for the season. Unfortunately for them, the Titans have the league's top run defense. Titans QB Vince Young has appeared out of sorts, and the Panthers have the speed on defense to contain him. This will be a physical, low-scoring game unless Carolina can somehow get WR Steve Smith involved.
Trivia Time: What AFL team did both John Brodie and Mike Ditka sign with (though never play for) in 1966?
PRIME TIME TREATS:
Both night games this week offer intense, intradivisional rivalries.
Sunday - Dallas (6-1) at Philadelphia (3-4): The Cowboys are rested, and a road victory here would keep them in the NFC East driver's seat. Dallas will need to run the ball some on Philadelphia's improved run defense. The Cowboys shaky secondary presents an opportunity for QB Donovan McNabb. The Eagles are in danger of irrelevance in the division if they lose another home divisional game.
Monday - Baltimore (4-3) at Pittsburgh (5-2): The Ravens don't appear to be the team many (including me) thought they would be - road losses to improving Cleveland and Buffalo demonstrate that. Pittsburgh has the necessary run/pass balance on offense to keep the Ravens honest. The Ravens offense again is struggling, so their defense is going to have to pressure QB Ben Roethlisberger and hope for turnovers.
GAMES OF THE WEAK:
San Francisco (2-5) at Atlanta (1-6): What do you get when you add two teams with zero starting-caliber quarterbacks? This.
Houston (3-5) at Oakland (2-5): This is a good lesson about why you can't get too excited about teams that start fast. These were division leaders five weeks ago.
Trivia answer: The Houston Oilers
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