Perhaps you're like me and grow weary of all the "instant analysis" after NFL Drafts.
Winners, losers and grades.
I believe a far more accurate barometer is five years out, and here is why. Five years is approximately two more than the average player's NFL shelf life. Those who have survived five seasons are now working on their second contract in the league and either are cemented as a star, contributor or hanger on.
Here is my look back at the 2005 NFL draft, which on the whole has far more disappointments than top-end players.
First Round (No. indicates overall selection)
Great picks (impact players)
11 - LB DeMarcus Ware, Dallas - Today's prototype speed rusher in the 3-4 alignment
12 - LB Shawne Merriman, San Diego - An impact player when healthy in body and mind
24 - QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay - Could end up with better career stats than the guy he replaced if he keeps this up
27 - WR Roddy White, Atlanta - It took four seasons, but White emerged as a threat when Matt Ryan arrived
32 - G Logan Mankins, New England - A Pro Bowl guard
Good picks (above average starter)
2 - RB Ronnie Brown, Miami - Might be in top category had not parts of three seasons been ended by injury
3 - WR Braylon Edwards, Cleveland - One great season and a lot of question marks
8 - CB Antrel Rolle, Arizona - Good but not good enough to keep apparently
9 - CB Carlos Rodgers, Washington - Undone by injuries
13 - OT Jamaal Brown, New Orleans - One of the anchors of the Super Bowl champs' line
14 - LB Thomas Davis, Carolina - Has made successful transition from S to LB and is one of the Panthers' better defenders, close to a great pick
15 - LB Derrick Johnson, Kansas City - Slow start to his career, but he's making strides
19 - OT Alex Barron, St. Louis - He has started since Day 1 on one of the league's worst lines
26 - C Chris Spencer, Seattle - A solid starting center
28 - DE Luis Castillo, San Diego - Very good at the point of attack and at pressuring the QB
30 - TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh - Good in all phases, a typical solid Steeler pick
31 - DT Mike Patterson, Philadelphia - A disruptive presence inside
Lousy picks
4 - RB Cedric Benson, Chicago - Coming off one good season ... for Cincinnati
5 - RB Carnell Williams, Tampa Bay - Seemed like a risky pick given his size at the time. Can't stay healthy
6 - CB Adam Jones, Tennessee - Super talent and immaturity levels; another Bengals reclamation project
7 - WR Troy Williamson, Minnesota - Four TDs in five seasons and can't crack the Jaguars' shaky receiving core
11 - WR Mike Williams, Detroit - Just wrong on so many fronts; out of the league
16 - DT Travis Johnson, Houston - Looking for a fresh start in San Diego
17 - DE David Pollack, Cincinnati - Injuries ended his career before it started
18 - DE Erasmus James, Minnesota - Forced to retire because of injuries
20 - DE Marcus Spears, Dallas - Has never lived up to the hype but a servicable player
21 - QB Matt Jones, Arkansas - He could run, but he couldn't throw, catch or stay out of trouble
22 - WR Mark Clayton, Baltimore - After a decent second season (67 catches, 5 TDs), he's vanished
23 - CB Fabian Washington, Oakland - Extra DB has bounced around
29 - CB Marlin Jackson, Indianapolis - New Eagle had health issues and never asserted himself in a talented Colts secondary
Maybe they'll work out
1 - QB Alex Smith, San Francisco - He's the starter for now, but it's tough to find anyone who would pick him over Aaron Rodgers at this point.
25 - QB Jason Campbell, Washington - Put Campbell in a stable organization and football staff and he could thrive, but to go from the Redskins to the Raiders, well, not exactly how one would draw it up
Good drafts (team)
Atlanta - WR White, DT Jonathan Babineaux, LB Chauncey Davis, LB Michael Boley (NY Giants) and G Frank Omiyale (Chicago) are contributing in Atlanta or elsewhere.
Dallas - Ware, Spears, RB Marion Barber, DE Chris Canty (NY Giants) and NT Jay Ratliff are starters, and Ware has been defensive MVP
Green Bay - Rodgers and S Nick Collins have made multiple Pro Bowl appearances
New England - Mankins has been to the Pro Bowl and third-round T Nick Kaczur is a starter, as was CB Ellis Hobbs. The steal? QB Matt Cassel with the 230th pick.
N.Y. Giants - CB Corey Webster, DE Justin Tuck and RB Brandon Jacobs in rounds 2, 3, 4
San Diego - Yes, Merriman and Castillo have had injury and consistency problems, but they're above-average starters. This draft also yielded WR Vincent Jackson and RB Darren Sproles.
San Francisco - Get beyond the Smith pick and you find G David Baas, RB Frank Gore, NT Ronald Fields, all very good starters
Mixed bag
Baltimore - They missed on Clayton and DE Dan Cody, but T Adam Terry, C Jason Brown (St. Louis) and QB Derek Anderson (Arizona) were hits
Tennessee - How is this so with the Jones pick, as well as bust WRs Courtney Roby and Brandon Jones? Second-round T Michael Roos and sixth-round TE Bo Scaife are how. Roos might be the best LT in the game
Very bad
Detroit - Mike Williams? Shaun Cody? Career backup QB Dan Orlovsky probably is the highlight.
Buffalo - WR Roscoe Parrish was the top pick, followed by since-paralyzed TE Kevin Everett.
Cincinnati - Pollack suffered a career-ending injury. LB Odell Thurman and the late WR Chris Henry had multiple run-ins with the law and subsequent suspensions. And to think they signed Pacman Jones to a two-year contract.
Denver - CB Darent Williams was shot and killed. RB Maurice Clarett went to prison. CBs Karl Paymah (San Francisco) and Dominique Foxworth (Baltimore) have bounced around the league.
Jacksonville - Jones wasn't good enough to play QB or WR or stay out of trouble with the law. T Khalif Barnes was out of the organization within three years. Third-round pick S Scott Starks is a special teams player.
Minnesota - Not one, but TWO first-round busts (James and Williamson)
Oakland - Washington, CB Stanford Routt and QB Andrew Walter were the first three picks. LB Kirk Morrison is the only contributor, and if one re-projected this draft he'd have gone in the first round.
