It appears that it will take nine victories to have a shot at an NFC wild-card berth, and most likely 10 to make it in the AFC.
With four games remaining for all but Chicago and Washington (who played Thursday night), here is a glance at the playoff pictures in each conference.
NFC
Likely Division Winners (and an automatic playoff berth):
East - Dallas needs one win or one Giants loss. The Cowboys (11-1) have a strong inside track at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs after defeating Green Bay last week.
North - Green Bay needs a win or a tie and a Detroit loss or tie to clinch it. The Packers (10-2) can't get careless because Seattle (8-4) and Tampa Bay (8-4) are still two games back in the race for first-round bye.
South - Tampa Bay's victory over the Saints has it in the driver's seat. A win and combination of losses by the Saints and Panthers puts the Bucs in.
West - Seattle will win another weak division with a victory.
NFC wild-card race
8-4 - N.Y. Giants would have to completely implode to not make it. One victory and a combination of other teams' losses puts them in the postseason.
6-6 - Arizona Detroit, Minnesota ... The Cardinals are really banged up. Detroit has lost four in a row and has to face Dallas, San Diego, Kansas City and Green Bay still. ... Minnesota has come on, Adrian Peterson is seemingly healthy and all four of their remaining games are winnable. Vikings are the best bet.
6-7 - Washington. All the Redskins have to do is win at New York, at Minnesota and close the season by beating Dallas (which might not have much to play for in Week 17) at home. A very, very tall order.
5-7 - Carolina, New Orleans, Philadelphia. I'm not saying it couldn't happen for any of these teams, but the odds seem very long given the teams in the conference they've lost to.
Seasons done
Atlanta (3-9), Chicago (5-8), San Francisco (3-9), St. Louis (3-9)
AFC
Likely Division Winners
East - New England (12-0) has clinched it and barring three losses in four games will have home-field advantage.
South - Indianapolis (10-2) has a huge edge for the division title after its season sweep of Jacksonville. It must beware of Pittsburgh in the race for a first-round bye.
North - Pittsburgh (9-3) needs a victory or a Browns loss to lock it up.
West - San Diego (7-5) needs one victory and one Denver loss to clinch it, which is remarkable after how poorly the Chargers started.
Wild-card race
8-4 - Jacksonville - A very solid team with three very winnable games in their final four.
7-5 - Cleveland, Tennessee. This incarnation of the Browns has played poorly in December, but their schedule (Jets, Bills, Bengals and 49ers) isn't particularly imposing. The Titans not only have San Diego this Sunday and a visit to Kansas City next week, but close with a visit to Indianapolis, which could be playing for a bye. Having said that, the Titans have a better defense, and I like those sorts of teams when the weather turns bad.
6-6 - Buffalo. If either 7-5 team implodes, this is the team to watch for. After Miami, they visit Cleveland, host the Giants and visit Philadelphia. If they win the next two, they'll hold a tie-breaker over the Browns and might catch the banged-up Giants in a meaningless game for playoff position.
Seasons done
Miami (0-12), NY Jets (3-9), Oakland (4-8), Baltimore (4-8), Cincinnati (4-8), Houston (5-7), Denver (5-7)
GAME OF THE WEEK:
Pittsburgh (9-3) at New England (12-0): The obvious choice. Most experts predict this is the week the Patriots could lose after their less-than-stellar performances in Weeks 12-13. The big factor from my point of view will be the weather. If it's bad, the Steelers could pull it off. Pittsburgh certain fits the template for a team that could knock the Pats off their perch. I question if the Steelers can score enough to keep up, however.
GAME OF THE WEAK:
St. Louis (3-9) at Cincinnati (4-8): Injuries ruined the Rams' season, and few teams have been as disappointing as the Bengals (Chicago, New Orleans and Baltimore come to mind, however). It could be a fun game to watch given the explosive potential of the respective offenses.
Upset Special:
New York Jets (3-9) over Cleveland (7-5). I think the Jets' defense can stop or at least slow the Browns' attack, and I think the Jets will run at will on the Browns. The tipping point: the Jets are creating more turnovers of late, and the Browns have had a penchant for a lot of giveaways.
Upset Special Season Record: 7-6
Friday, December 07, 2007
Monday, December 03, 2007
NFL rewind
Thanks to a friend's generosity, I was able to watch every exciting play from every NFL game on Sunday. Or at least it seemed that way.
I was introduced to NFL Sunday Ticket's Red Zone Channel which updates every game in progress continuously. Much has been made of the eight-game "mix" that Sunday Ticket offers, but RZC is a far, far superior product because you get every highlight as it happens or shortly thereafter for hour upon hour. It's a beautiful thing. ...
What was Saints coach Sean Peyton thinking, calling a double-reverse late in the eventual loss to the Bucs? New Orleans held a 23-20 lead late in the fourth quarter, but Reggie Bush's fumbled exchange gave Tampa Bay the ball and eventually the game. The Bucs, by the way, are for real. They're physical, and Coach Jon Gruden game-planned masterfully for QB Luke McCown, who subbed for the ailing Jeff Garcia. ... The Saints' season is probably done. ...
What was Redskins coach Joe Gibbs thinking? His second time-out call to ice Bills kicker Rian Lindell with seconds left resulted in an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that all but ensured Buffalo would get the winning points on Lindell's field-goal attempt. Gibbs is a Hall of Famer, and his place in the game is secure, but this is the latest game management blunder in a season full of them. Yes, Washington has melted down in the second half numerous times this season, but many of its miscues are inexcusable, particularly for someone with Gibbs' resume. ...
It's time for the NFL, the richest U.S. sports league, to hire full-time officials. Not only are the officials missing calls, but even with instant replay, it certainly seems as if many are going uncorrected. Case in point, Cleveland's Hail Mary pass to Kellen Winslow on Sunday. After a fantastic catch on the final play, Winslow was forced out of the end zone yet that wasn't called, costing the Browns the game. Perhaps it's the stress of working during the week, then working all weekend, that's getting to the officials. Whatever the reason, it's a shame the officiating is sinking in a league with abundant resources to do something about it. ...
If you turn the ball over, you will lose. Turnovers again derailed the Eagles, they put the Browns down two scores early, the Packers down three scores early, they sank the Broncos' comeback hopes, and they left the 49ers with no chance to win.
I was introduced to NFL Sunday Ticket's Red Zone Channel which updates every game in progress continuously. Much has been made of the eight-game "mix" that Sunday Ticket offers, but RZC is a far, far superior product because you get every highlight as it happens or shortly thereafter for hour upon hour. It's a beautiful thing. ...
What was Saints coach Sean Peyton thinking, calling a double-reverse late in the eventual loss to the Bucs? New Orleans held a 23-20 lead late in the fourth quarter, but Reggie Bush's fumbled exchange gave Tampa Bay the ball and eventually the game. The Bucs, by the way, are for real. They're physical, and Coach Jon Gruden game-planned masterfully for QB Luke McCown, who subbed for the ailing Jeff Garcia. ... The Saints' season is probably done. ...
What was Redskins coach Joe Gibbs thinking? His second time-out call to ice Bills kicker Rian Lindell with seconds left resulted in an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that all but ensured Buffalo would get the winning points on Lindell's field-goal attempt. Gibbs is a Hall of Famer, and his place in the game is secure, but this is the latest game management blunder in a season full of them. Yes, Washington has melted down in the second half numerous times this season, but many of its miscues are inexcusable, particularly for someone with Gibbs' resume. ...
It's time for the NFL, the richest U.S. sports league, to hire full-time officials. Not only are the officials missing calls, but even with instant replay, it certainly seems as if many are going uncorrected. Case in point, Cleveland's Hail Mary pass to Kellen Winslow on Sunday. After a fantastic catch on the final play, Winslow was forced out of the end zone yet that wasn't called, costing the Browns the game. Perhaps it's the stress of working during the week, then working all weekend, that's getting to the officials. Whatever the reason, it's a shame the officiating is sinking in a league with abundant resources to do something about it. ...
If you turn the ball over, you will lose. Turnovers again derailed the Eagles, they put the Browns down two scores early, the Packers down three scores early, they sank the Broncos' comeback hopes, and they left the 49ers with no chance to win.
College football quick kicks
Several things jumped out at me in the college football world during the past several days:
Has there ever been a worse college head coach than Bill Callahan? He consistently recruited top-10 classes at Nebraska, yet the Huskers' defense, once their calling card, was among the nation's worst. His pro-style offense never caught on, and its debatable the Huskers ever had the correct mix of personnel. Nebraska endured it's worst losing streak since the early 60s and absorbed beatings by Kansas, Missouri, Colorado and Oklahoma State that were virtually unparalleled in school history. But why stop there, the Oakland Raiders have been a shambles since Callahan had his hands on them. That's quite a resume - destroying one of college's most tradition-rich programs on the heels of sending one of the NFL's proudest and winningest franchises into a tailspin it's yet to recover from. ...
Hiring Bo Pelini, a former Huskers assistant and defensive expert, is a step in the right direction, but one wonders how long it will take him to un-do all the messes Callahan created, including alienating in-state prospects. ...
Frankly I don't know what BCS stands for anymore, but if you remove the "C" you're probably in the right zip code. If ever there was a season crying for a playoff (say eight teams), this is it. It doesn't matter which team, LSU or Ohio State, wins the "national championship" game, does anyone really know if those are the two best teams. The NCAA argues against a playoff by saying they're concerned about athletes playing more games. This from an organization that has signed off on the season expanding from 11 games to 12 or 13 in some cases. Simple solution guys: Cut the regular season to 11 games. Hold playoffs the final two Saturdays in December and the first Saturday night in January - college students are on break then anyway so the class time is a non-issue. Keep the traditional bowl games and restore conference affiliations, just put the top eight teams into a playoff aligned with seven "BCS" bowls. ...
UCLA's Karl Dorrell, fired as coach Monday, got a raw deal. Bob Toledo left the Bruins a mess on and off the field. Dorrell cleaned up the latter, guided UCLA to five consecutive bowl games and from all accounts had changed the culture around the program. He even managed to beat USC last season and spoil the Trojans' title hopes in the process. Apparently it wasn't enough. True, the Bruins talent level never approached USC's, but whose does most seasons? UCLA seems to be on the right track on a lot of fronts, too bad Dorrell won't be around to watch it. ...
Another nice job by ESPN reporting rumors on Saturday. This time it incurred the wrath of LSU coach Les Miles, who may or may not have been headed to Michigan to replace Lloyd Carr. On Sunday, analyst Kirk Herbstreit admitted he was wrong. Gee, maybe Sportscenter can lead with that. ...
Gearing up for Bowl Season and wondering what a team has to do to NOT get invited to a bowl these days.
Has there ever been a worse college head coach than Bill Callahan? He consistently recruited top-10 classes at Nebraska, yet the Huskers' defense, once their calling card, was among the nation's worst. His pro-style offense never caught on, and its debatable the Huskers ever had the correct mix of personnel. Nebraska endured it's worst losing streak since the early 60s and absorbed beatings by Kansas, Missouri, Colorado and Oklahoma State that were virtually unparalleled in school history. But why stop there, the Oakland Raiders have been a shambles since Callahan had his hands on them. That's quite a resume - destroying one of college's most tradition-rich programs on the heels of sending one of the NFL's proudest and winningest franchises into a tailspin it's yet to recover from. ...
Hiring Bo Pelini, a former Huskers assistant and defensive expert, is a step in the right direction, but one wonders how long it will take him to un-do all the messes Callahan created, including alienating in-state prospects. ...
Frankly I don't know what BCS stands for anymore, but if you remove the "C" you're probably in the right zip code. If ever there was a season crying for a playoff (say eight teams), this is it. It doesn't matter which team, LSU or Ohio State, wins the "national championship" game, does anyone really know if those are the two best teams. The NCAA argues against a playoff by saying they're concerned about athletes playing more games. This from an organization that has signed off on the season expanding from 11 games to 12 or 13 in some cases. Simple solution guys: Cut the regular season to 11 games. Hold playoffs the final two Saturdays in December and the first Saturday night in January - college students are on break then anyway so the class time is a non-issue. Keep the traditional bowl games and restore conference affiliations, just put the top eight teams into a playoff aligned with seven "BCS" bowls. ...
UCLA's Karl Dorrell, fired as coach Monday, got a raw deal. Bob Toledo left the Bruins a mess on and off the field. Dorrell cleaned up the latter, guided UCLA to five consecutive bowl games and from all accounts had changed the culture around the program. He even managed to beat USC last season and spoil the Trojans' title hopes in the process. Apparently it wasn't enough. True, the Bruins talent level never approached USC's, but whose does most seasons? UCLA seems to be on the right track on a lot of fronts, too bad Dorrell won't be around to watch it. ...
Another nice job by ESPN reporting rumors on Saturday. This time it incurred the wrath of LSU coach Les Miles, who may or may not have been headed to Michigan to replace Lloyd Carr. On Sunday, analyst Kirk Herbstreit admitted he was wrong. Gee, maybe Sportscenter can lead with that. ...
Gearing up for Bowl Season and wondering what a team has to do to NOT get invited to a bowl these days.
Saturday, December 01, 2007
NFL Week 13 preview
What does the NFL season's final month hold? Will a team overcome a shaky first two-thirds of the season and rally for a playoff spot? Will a team that has started strong limp to the finish?
Here are some predictions of teams that could make a run and others that could fall flat and how that pertains to this week's games.
Moving up in the NFC
Philadelphia (5-6) - The Eagles' aggressive approach nearly knocked off the Patriots, and the guess here is they will continue that approach against Seattle on Sunday.
Chicago (5-6) - The Bears have to rely on Rex Grossman because RB Cedric Benson is injured. Is Chicago doomed? Maybe not. The Bears' pass rush is outstanding, they win games in the fourth quarter and they're not making the mistakes they made earlier in the season.
Moving down in the NFC
Detroit (6-5) - The Lions have lost three in a row, and the Vikings might well make that four on Sunday. Detroit can't run the ball, can't protect QB Jon Kitna and can't defend the pass. It won earlier in the season by dominating the turnover battle. That can't continue.
New York Giants (7-4) - Yup, the annual implosion is well underway, and injuries to their running backs and defense won't help. If the Giants' pass rush lets up at all, their secondary will be exposed. A loss to the Bears on Sunday would dent the Giants' attitude further and add to the heat on QB Eli Manning.
Moving up in the AFC
San Diego (6-5) - Yes, the Chargers have an inside track at winning the West, but at some point they have to figure out that getting the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson more is their wisest strategy. Two reasons for optimism - the defense has regained its teeth and should dominate a banged up Chiefs team, and WR Chris Chambers is beginning to make an impact on the offense.
Cleveland (7-4) - The Browns boast an explosive offense and a defense that is in the top-10 in takeaways. They're for real as a wild-card team, and if the Steelers stumble again (and they have the Patriots on deck), the Browns will be in the thick of the North title race.
Moving down in the AFC
Tennessee (6-5) - The Titans' defense has gone from dominating to sub-par in three weeks. Their ability to run the ball has seemingly vanished. And their final four games include matchups against the Chargers, Colts and Chiefs.
Denver (5-6) - The Broncos' loss at Chicago last Sunday was the type that can demoralize a team, particularly one that has been as inconsistent this season as Denver has. Three of their final five games are within the division, and the other two games appear winnable, but their inability to stop the run could be a problem vs. all five foes.
Game of the Week
Jacksonville (8-3) at Indianapolis (9-2) - Playing at home and having an 11-day since their last game favors the Colts, who must set the tone early. If the game turns into a slowed-down slugfest, the Jaguars will have a good chance of grabbing a share of the AFC South lead.
Game of the Weak:
N.Y. Jets (2-9) at Miami (0-11) - Is this the week the Dolphins finally win? Both teams are decimated by injuries, but Miami more so. They're on their third quarterback of the season, fourth running back and have been missing MLB Zach Thomas because of concussion-related headaches. Still, this is probably the Fins' best chance to win this season because the Jets are equally inept on offense and defense, ranking 30th in the league in both.
Upset Special, Part II: Yes, the elements were horrible on Monday night, but the Steelers nearly lost to a Miami team they have three times more talent than. Cincinnati is playing better, particularly on offense. I think the Bengals will win a shootout at Pittsburgh.
Season upset record: 7-5
Here are some predictions of teams that could make a run and others that could fall flat and how that pertains to this week's games.
Moving up in the NFC
Philadelphia (5-6) - The Eagles' aggressive approach nearly knocked off the Patriots, and the guess here is they will continue that approach against Seattle on Sunday.
Chicago (5-6) - The Bears have to rely on Rex Grossman because RB Cedric Benson is injured. Is Chicago doomed? Maybe not. The Bears' pass rush is outstanding, they win games in the fourth quarter and they're not making the mistakes they made earlier in the season.
Moving down in the NFC
Detroit (6-5) - The Lions have lost three in a row, and the Vikings might well make that four on Sunday. Detroit can't run the ball, can't protect QB Jon Kitna and can't defend the pass. It won earlier in the season by dominating the turnover battle. That can't continue.
New York Giants (7-4) - Yup, the annual implosion is well underway, and injuries to their running backs and defense won't help. If the Giants' pass rush lets up at all, their secondary will be exposed. A loss to the Bears on Sunday would dent the Giants' attitude further and add to the heat on QB Eli Manning.
Moving up in the AFC
San Diego (6-5) - Yes, the Chargers have an inside track at winning the West, but at some point they have to figure out that getting the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson more is their wisest strategy. Two reasons for optimism - the defense has regained its teeth and should dominate a banged up Chiefs team, and WR Chris Chambers is beginning to make an impact on the offense.
Cleveland (7-4) - The Browns boast an explosive offense and a defense that is in the top-10 in takeaways. They're for real as a wild-card team, and if the Steelers stumble again (and they have the Patriots on deck), the Browns will be in the thick of the North title race.
Moving down in the AFC
Tennessee (6-5) - The Titans' defense has gone from dominating to sub-par in three weeks. Their ability to run the ball has seemingly vanished. And their final four games include matchups against the Chargers, Colts and Chiefs.
Denver (5-6) - The Broncos' loss at Chicago last Sunday was the type that can demoralize a team, particularly one that has been as inconsistent this season as Denver has. Three of their final five games are within the division, and the other two games appear winnable, but their inability to stop the run could be a problem vs. all five foes.
Game of the Week
Jacksonville (8-3) at Indianapolis (9-2) - Playing at home and having an 11-day since their last game favors the Colts, who must set the tone early. If the game turns into a slowed-down slugfest, the Jaguars will have a good chance of grabbing a share of the AFC South lead.
Game of the Weak:
N.Y. Jets (2-9) at Miami (0-11) - Is this the week the Dolphins finally win? Both teams are decimated by injuries, but Miami more so. They're on their third quarterback of the season, fourth running back and have been missing MLB Zach Thomas because of concussion-related headaches. Still, this is probably the Fins' best chance to win this season because the Jets are equally inept on offense and defense, ranking 30th in the league in both.
Upset Special, Part II: Yes, the elements were horrible on Monday night, but the Steelers nearly lost to a Miami team they have three times more talent than. Cincinnati is playing better, particularly on offense. I think the Bengals will win a shootout at Pittsburgh.
Season upset record: 7-5
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Matchup of the Season, Part 2
A disclosure: I am a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan. I grew up less than a mile from Lambeau Field, and aside from a brief affair with the Vikings during my grade-school years (I've since received treatment for this ailment), I've stuck with the Green and Gold.
What to make of Thursday night's matchup of 10-1 teams Dallas and Green Bay?
For one, these two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the NFC, and this should be an NFC Championship Game preview and dictate home-field advantage for the playoffs.
Some things to watch for:
*How will the Packers defend tight end Jason Witten? Top-echelon TEs have gashed Green Bay's defense this season.
*Can the Cowboys slow the Packers' outside pass rush combination of Aaron Kampman and Kabeer-Gbaja Biamila?
*Which team will do a better job establishing the running game and take the heat off their quarterback? The signs point to Dallas, but Ryan Grant is emerging for the Packers.
*Who will win the Al Harris-Terrell Owens matchup? This should be the most compelling individual matchup of the game.
The oddsmakers like the Cowboys by a touchdown. I disagree. I think the Packers' pressure will rattle Dallas quarterback Tony Romo into making mistakes, and I anticipate Brett Favre gradually picking the Cowboys secondary apart. Green Bay is five deep at wide receiver and TE Donald Lee is emerging.
My first upset special of the week: Packers 34, Cowboys 27
Season record in upset picks: 7-4
What to make of Thursday night's matchup of 10-1 teams Dallas and Green Bay?
For one, these two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the NFC, and this should be an NFC Championship Game preview and dictate home-field advantage for the playoffs.
Some things to watch for:
*How will the Packers defend tight end Jason Witten? Top-echelon TEs have gashed Green Bay's defense this season.
*Can the Cowboys slow the Packers' outside pass rush combination of Aaron Kampman and Kabeer-Gbaja Biamila?
*Which team will do a better job establishing the running game and take the heat off their quarterback? The signs point to Dallas, but Ryan Grant is emerging for the Packers.
*Who will win the Al Harris-Terrell Owens matchup? This should be the most compelling individual matchup of the game.
The oddsmakers like the Cowboys by a touchdown. I disagree. I think the Packers' pressure will rattle Dallas quarterback Tony Romo into making mistakes, and I anticipate Brett Favre gradually picking the Cowboys secondary apart. Green Bay is five deep at wide receiver and TE Donald Lee is emerging.
My first upset special of the week: Packers 34, Cowboys 27
Season record in upset picks: 7-4
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