The Western Conference playoff field is essentially set, but there will be some jockeying for position between now and the end of the season.
1. ANAHEIM. If D Chris Pronger returns to health and their young forwards score, the Ducks have enough to build on last season's run to the Western Conference finals. Goalie J.S. Giguere has found his game, and the Ducks are nearly unbeatable at home.
2. NASHVILLE. In a dogfight with Detroit for the Central Division lead and the top spot in the Conference (with Anaheim right on both of their heels, the Predators will discover C Peter Forsberg's real value in the playoffs. This team skates very well and has two excellent goaltenders.
3. VANCOUVER. The Canucks added a top-six forward (Bryan Smolinski) and a top-four defenseman (Brent Sopel) at the trade deadline without surrendering any player of significance off their roster. Goalie Roberto Luongo has been magnificent, as has the team's underrated defense.
4. SAN JOSE. A puzzling team because they have the firepower, defense and goaltending to have a better record than they do. G Evgeni Nabokov is establishing himself as the team's go-to man in net, and the Sharks have responded. The problem San Jose faces is if it plays much better it gets the fifth seed and has to face either Detroit or Nashville in the first round. If the Sharks stay in sixth, it gets either Vancouver or Minnesota, which is arguably an easier draw.
5. DETROIT. Is this the year the Red Wings make it out of the first round? Seems strange to write that about Hockeytown's inhabitants, but the Wings have struggled in the postseason over the past five years. If Dominik Hasek stays healthy and trade-acquisition Todd Bertuzzi can give them anything, this version of the Wings is built a bit more for the playoffs than recent past editions.
The temptation was to include Dallas in here, but until goalie Marty Turco wins a postseason series, it's tough to see the Stars shinining beyond April.
Friday, March 16, 2007
Five teams to like in the Eastern Conference
As the NHL season heads toward the finish line, here are five Eastern Conference teams I like going into the playoffs:
1. OTTAWA. No, the Senators won't supplant Buffalo atop the Northwest Division and the Conference standings, but they've played very well in 2007, and they match up well against most of the conference's top teams, especially Buffalo. Their offense remains strong, but their scoring is more balanced. The real difference this season has been their defense (third-fewest goals allowed in the East) and the goaltending of Ray Emery.
2. NEW JERSEY. The Devils just won't go away, thanks to a stingy defense that is backstopped by Martin Brodeur. They've allowed the fewest goals in the East by far, but they also don't score much. There is no real difference between their home and road records, meaning home ice might not be as big of a deal to this experienced club as it is to others, so it might be wise to give Brodeur some rest down in the next few weeks.
3. TAMPA BAY. The Lightning is another team that has put it together after a slow start. What stands out to me is just how well Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis are playing, the team's playoff experience and that it is an excellent road team. The Lightning has to outscore teams most nights to win, but it has the weapons to do so.
4. BUFFALO. If the Sabres are healthy, look out. But they're not right now (F Chris Drury, F Max Afinogenov, D Jaroslav Spacek all out). Goalie Ryan Miller is showing signs of fatigue, but can the Sabres afford to rest him too much with New Jersey right on its tail for the conference lead and home-ice in the playoffs? Balanced scoring, great skating and a very good, puck-moving defense, as well as Miller's emergence make Buffalo one of the teams to beat.
5. N.Y. RANGERS. Right now, the Rangers would not make the playoffs, but they are part of a pack of five teams separated by two points for the final two spots. If goalie Henrik Lundqvist steps up and they can make the postseason, I would not bet against a team with players such as Brendan Shanahan and Jaromir Jagr in their lineup. These are playoff-savy veterans who can make a difference in a seven-game series.
1. OTTAWA. No, the Senators won't supplant Buffalo atop the Northwest Division and the Conference standings, but they've played very well in 2007, and they match up well against most of the conference's top teams, especially Buffalo. Their offense remains strong, but their scoring is more balanced. The real difference this season has been their defense (third-fewest goals allowed in the East) and the goaltending of Ray Emery.
2. NEW JERSEY. The Devils just won't go away, thanks to a stingy defense that is backstopped by Martin Brodeur. They've allowed the fewest goals in the East by far, but they also don't score much. There is no real difference between their home and road records, meaning home ice might not be as big of a deal to this experienced club as it is to others, so it might be wise to give Brodeur some rest down in the next few weeks.
3. TAMPA BAY. The Lightning is another team that has put it together after a slow start. What stands out to me is just how well Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis are playing, the team's playoff experience and that it is an excellent road team. The Lightning has to outscore teams most nights to win, but it has the weapons to do so.
4. BUFFALO. If the Sabres are healthy, look out. But they're not right now (F Chris Drury, F Max Afinogenov, D Jaroslav Spacek all out). Goalie Ryan Miller is showing signs of fatigue, but can the Sabres afford to rest him too much with New Jersey right on its tail for the conference lead and home-ice in the playoffs? Balanced scoring, great skating and a very good, puck-moving defense, as well as Miller's emergence make Buffalo one of the teams to beat.
5. N.Y. RANGERS. Right now, the Rangers would not make the playoffs, but they are part of a pack of five teams separated by two points for the final two spots. If goalie Henrik Lundqvist steps up and they can make the postseason, I would not bet against a team with players such as Brendan Shanahan and Jaromir Jagr in their lineup. These are playoff-savy veterans who can make a difference in a seven-game series.
Friday, February 23, 2007
NHL Buyers and Sellers
Did you know Tuesday is a national holiday in Canada? No, not really, but that is when the NHL trade deadline passes.
There has been much written lately about teams "renting" players, that is those who will be unrestricted free agents after the season. Thank the Carolina Hurricanes for that. The Canes won the Stanley Cup last season thanks in part to acquiring forward Mark Recchi from Pittsburgh and center Doug Weight from St. Louis at the trade deadline. Both players resigned with the teams that had traded them during the summer.
Several notable trades already have taken place, but here is a team-by-team look at whom I anticipate buying and selling.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
BUYERS
Atlanta - Needs more scoring, especially down the middle, even with acquisition of Eric Belanger. A disciplined defenseman would help, too.
Buffalo - The injury bug is biting them again, and they appear ready for a Cup run. Dealing backup goalie Martin Biron for a veteran player or two would be bold, but it could put the Sabres over the top in the East. Lots of organizational depth.
Carolina - They acquired center Josef Vasichek, but they're not finished. Maybe they'll bring Weight back again.
Montreal - Just a guess, but they're gonna make a blockbuster trade involving Sergei Samsonov, Alexei Kovalev or some of their defensemen. With a good group of young forwards coming up, they could move prospects, though I don't get the sense that's the plan there.
N.Y. Rangers - They've added F Sean Avery, but could use more secondary scoring and toughness now that Brendan Shanahan is hurt.
Ottawa - Need veteran forward, preferably a tough one. A big defenseman also would help. Gary Roberts and Brad May are among the possibilities.
Pittsburgh - Some veteran defensemen would help Sidney Crosby and Co. on a playoff run.
Toronto - They're on the fringe of the playoffs. Not making them isn't an option. Scoring is the first order of business. Cap space is an issue because they've overspent on their blueline.
SELLERS
Boston - If the price was right, forward Glen Murray could go. They made their big splash already by dealing Brad Stuart and Wayne Primeau. Defenseman Andrew Ferrance, acquired in the Stuart trade, could be trade bait. It appears Marco Sturm isn't going anywhere.
Florida - Forwards Gary Roberts, Martin Gelinas and even Todd Bertuzzi (if healthy) are available in and walk years. Goalie Ed Belfour has playoff experience.
Philadelphia - Trading Peter Forsberg was the first step. Forwards Kyle Calder and Geoff Sanderson could be next. If anyone would take one of their goalies, they'd deal them, too.
STANDING PAT
New Jersey - Cap space is an issue and this seams like a team that is coming together.
N.Y. Islanders - Re-signing forward Jason Blake should be their first priority.
Tampa Bay - Hamstrung by the salary cap. Rumors of dealing one of their big three forwards for Nikolai Khabibulin are intriguing but unlikely.
Washington - Not much of interest to other teams aside from 5-6-type defensemen and fourth-line forwards.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
BUYERS
Anaheim - The Ducks need secondary scoring, and knowing GM Brian Burke, they'll likely get it. But they might have to deal another of their promising young forwards.
Detroit - The Wings would love to bring forward Martin Lapointe back, but other power forward possibilities include Gary Roberts, Bill Guerin and Keith Tkachuk.
Edmonton - This depends on whether the Oilers think they have a shot at the playoffs, which appears dicey right now. They badly need help on the blueline, yet they traded Marc-Andre Bergeron for a prospect last week. With a wealth of young forwards, they could get a top-four defenseman.
San Jose - The Sharks need blueline depth, particularly of the physical variety, and they have plenty of young players to deal to get it.
Vancouver - The Canucks need scoring and would like blueline depth. What they trade for it complicates matters. If they make a splash, they're a Stanley Cup darkhorse.
SELLERS
Chicago - Defensemen Adrian Aucoin, who has been linked to Montreal, and Jassen Cullimore, rumored to be headed to Vancouver, are available. Center Brian Smolinski is a hot commodity, as is power forward Martin Lapointe. If GM Dale Tallon got an overwhelming offer, goalie Nikolai Khabibulin might go, too.
Colorado - It will tough, though not impossible, for the Avs to reach the playoffs. I don't buy the rumors that they'll trade Joe Sakic. However, the Avs have a lot of veteran forwards who could go. I'd be surprised if forward Milan Hejduk was dealt, but it could happen. They'd love to unload goalie Jose Theodore, but no one will take on his salary.
Columbus - Any number of veterans, such as defenseman Adam Foote, forwards Anson Carter, Fredrik Modin and Sergei Fedorov could be dealt.
Los Angeles - A team in need of veteran defensemen (Rob Blake, Mattias Norstrom, Aaron Miller, Brent Sopel) would be wise to call GM Dean Lombardi. They've already dealt forwards Sean Avery and Craig Conroy. Goalie Mathieu Garon might go, too.
Phoenix - Any number of veterans could be traded, starting with forward Owen Nolan (a return to San Jose or Toronto perhaps?), goalie Curtis Joseph, forward George Laracque and possibly a defenseman such as Derek Morris and Nick Boynton. Expect the Coyotes to be very active.
St. Louis - Despite the Blues' ascent up the standings in the past two months, it's expected they'll deal forward Bill Guerin and possibly Keith Tkachuk. Many teams would love to acquire defenseman Eric Brewer, but he is reportedly close to re-signing with the Blues. Expect St. Louis to be active.
STANDING PAT
Calgary - The Flames have obtained forwards Craig Conroy and Wayne Primeau and defenseman Brad Stuart without damaging their core. If they are healthy and gel, watch out.
Dallas - Obtaining forward Ladislav Nagy might be the extent of it. The Stars need to get healthy down the stretch.
Minnesota - The Wild has phases where it plays very well, and others where it doesn't (mainly due to injuries). If goalie Manny Fernandez is out longer than expected, they might try to grab an inexpensive backup such as Chicago's Patrick Lalime. A veteran forward would help, too, but this is a conservative franchise and it will stick to its plan.
Nashville - Acquiring center Peter Forsberg might have put the Predators over the top in the West if he can stay healthy.
There has been much written lately about teams "renting" players, that is those who will be unrestricted free agents after the season. Thank the Carolina Hurricanes for that. The Canes won the Stanley Cup last season thanks in part to acquiring forward Mark Recchi from Pittsburgh and center Doug Weight from St. Louis at the trade deadline. Both players resigned with the teams that had traded them during the summer.
Several notable trades already have taken place, but here is a team-by-team look at whom I anticipate buying and selling.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
BUYERS
Atlanta - Needs more scoring, especially down the middle, even with acquisition of Eric Belanger. A disciplined defenseman would help, too.
Buffalo - The injury bug is biting them again, and they appear ready for a Cup run. Dealing backup goalie Martin Biron for a veteran player or two would be bold, but it could put the Sabres over the top in the East. Lots of organizational depth.
Carolina - They acquired center Josef Vasichek, but they're not finished. Maybe they'll bring Weight back again.
Montreal - Just a guess, but they're gonna make a blockbuster trade involving Sergei Samsonov, Alexei Kovalev or some of their defensemen. With a good group of young forwards coming up, they could move prospects, though I don't get the sense that's the plan there.
N.Y. Rangers - They've added F Sean Avery, but could use more secondary scoring and toughness now that Brendan Shanahan is hurt.
Ottawa - Need veteran forward, preferably a tough one. A big defenseman also would help. Gary Roberts and Brad May are among the possibilities.
Pittsburgh - Some veteran defensemen would help Sidney Crosby and Co. on a playoff run.
Toronto - They're on the fringe of the playoffs. Not making them isn't an option. Scoring is the first order of business. Cap space is an issue because they've overspent on their blueline.
SELLERS
Boston - If the price was right, forward Glen Murray could go. They made their big splash already by dealing Brad Stuart and Wayne Primeau. Defenseman Andrew Ferrance, acquired in the Stuart trade, could be trade bait. It appears Marco Sturm isn't going anywhere.
Florida - Forwards Gary Roberts, Martin Gelinas and even Todd Bertuzzi (if healthy) are available in and walk years. Goalie Ed Belfour has playoff experience.
Philadelphia - Trading Peter Forsberg was the first step. Forwards Kyle Calder and Geoff Sanderson could be next. If anyone would take one of their goalies, they'd deal them, too.
STANDING PAT
New Jersey - Cap space is an issue and this seams like a team that is coming together.
N.Y. Islanders - Re-signing forward Jason Blake should be their first priority.
Tampa Bay - Hamstrung by the salary cap. Rumors of dealing one of their big three forwards for Nikolai Khabibulin are intriguing but unlikely.
Washington - Not much of interest to other teams aside from 5-6-type defensemen and fourth-line forwards.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
BUYERS
Anaheim - The Ducks need secondary scoring, and knowing GM Brian Burke, they'll likely get it. But they might have to deal another of their promising young forwards.
Detroit - The Wings would love to bring forward Martin Lapointe back, but other power forward possibilities include Gary Roberts, Bill Guerin and Keith Tkachuk.
Edmonton - This depends on whether the Oilers think they have a shot at the playoffs, which appears dicey right now. They badly need help on the blueline, yet they traded Marc-Andre Bergeron for a prospect last week. With a wealth of young forwards, they could get a top-four defenseman.
San Jose - The Sharks need blueline depth, particularly of the physical variety, and they have plenty of young players to deal to get it.
Vancouver - The Canucks need scoring and would like blueline depth. What they trade for it complicates matters. If they make a splash, they're a Stanley Cup darkhorse.
SELLERS
Chicago - Defensemen Adrian Aucoin, who has been linked to Montreal, and Jassen Cullimore, rumored to be headed to Vancouver, are available. Center Brian Smolinski is a hot commodity, as is power forward Martin Lapointe. If GM Dale Tallon got an overwhelming offer, goalie Nikolai Khabibulin might go, too.
Colorado - It will tough, though not impossible, for the Avs to reach the playoffs. I don't buy the rumors that they'll trade Joe Sakic. However, the Avs have a lot of veteran forwards who could go. I'd be surprised if forward Milan Hejduk was dealt, but it could happen. They'd love to unload goalie Jose Theodore, but no one will take on his salary.
Columbus - Any number of veterans, such as defenseman Adam Foote, forwards Anson Carter, Fredrik Modin and Sergei Fedorov could be dealt.
Los Angeles - A team in need of veteran defensemen (Rob Blake, Mattias Norstrom, Aaron Miller, Brent Sopel) would be wise to call GM Dean Lombardi. They've already dealt forwards Sean Avery and Craig Conroy. Goalie Mathieu Garon might go, too.
Phoenix - Any number of veterans could be traded, starting with forward Owen Nolan (a return to San Jose or Toronto perhaps?), goalie Curtis Joseph, forward George Laracque and possibly a defenseman such as Derek Morris and Nick Boynton. Expect the Coyotes to be very active.
St. Louis - Despite the Blues' ascent up the standings in the past two months, it's expected they'll deal forward Bill Guerin and possibly Keith Tkachuk. Many teams would love to acquire defenseman Eric Brewer, but he is reportedly close to re-signing with the Blues. Expect St. Louis to be active.
STANDING PAT
Calgary - The Flames have obtained forwards Craig Conroy and Wayne Primeau and defenseman Brad Stuart without damaging their core. If they are healthy and gel, watch out.
Dallas - Obtaining forward Ladislav Nagy might be the extent of it. The Stars need to get healthy down the stretch.
Minnesota - The Wild has phases where it plays very well, and others where it doesn't (mainly due to injuries). If goalie Manny Fernandez is out longer than expected, they might try to grab an inexpensive backup such as Chicago's Patrick Lalime. A veteran forward would help, too, but this is a conservative franchise and it will stick to its plan.
Nashville - Acquiring center Peter Forsberg might have put the Predators over the top in the West if he can stay healthy.
Saturday, February 10, 2007
I was wrong ... and other stuff
Congratulations to the Indianapolis Colts on their XLI Super Bowl victory.
I thought the Bears would not make the amount and types of mistakes that they did: wrong.
I thought the Bears defense tackled better: wrong.
I thought the Bears' blitzes would get to Peyton Manning at some point, or at least pressure him into more bad throws: wrong.
I thought the Bears' running game would help them control the clock: wrong (the opposite happened).
So who was the real MVP of the game? Manning is a compelling choice, as is RB Dominick Rhodes or RB Joseph Addai for that matter. But Indianapolis' offensive line carried the play, and dominated it at times.
Key stats of the game: Turnovers and time of possession, and the Colts dominated both. Had Indy been able to cash in on more of its red-zone opportunities, this one would have been an even bigger blowout even sooner.
I thought the Bears would not make the amount and types of mistakes that they did: wrong.
I thought the Bears defense tackled better: wrong.
I thought the Bears' blitzes would get to Peyton Manning at some point, or at least pressure him into more bad throws: wrong.
I thought the Bears' running game would help them control the clock: wrong (the opposite happened).
So who was the real MVP of the game? Manning is a compelling choice, as is RB Dominick Rhodes or RB Joseph Addai for that matter. But Indianapolis' offensive line carried the play, and dominated it at times.
Key stats of the game: Turnovers and time of possession, and the Colts dominated both. Had Indy been able to cash in on more of its red-zone opportunities, this one would have been an even bigger blowout even sooner.
Sunday, February 04, 2007
My Super Bowl pick
The Bears.
Much as I hate to admit, I think Chicago will win. The matchup vs. the Colts reminds me a lot of the Bills-Giants Super Bowl. Great offense vs. great defense. I think Chicago will follow the Giants' blueprint and grind out a close victory using a ball-control offense (thus limiting QB Rex Grossman's opportunities for mistakes) and a stout defense. That will be the best way to neutralize Peyton Manning and Co. - keep them off the field. The Bears have the components to execute that.
Much as I hate to admit, I think Chicago will win. The matchup vs. the Colts reminds me a lot of the Bills-Giants Super Bowl. Great offense vs. great defense. I think Chicago will follow the Giants' blueprint and grind out a close victory using a ball-control offense (thus limiting QB Rex Grossman's opportunities for mistakes) and a stout defense. That will be the best way to neutralize Peyton Manning and Co. - keep them off the field. The Bears have the components to execute that.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)