A disclosure: I am a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan. I grew up less than a mile from Lambeau Field, and aside from a brief affair with the Vikings during my grade-school years (I've since received treatment for this ailment), I've stuck with the Green and Gold.
What to make of Thursday night's matchup of 10-1 teams Dallas and Green Bay?
For one, these two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the NFC, and this should be an NFC Championship Game preview and dictate home-field advantage for the playoffs.
Some things to watch for:
*How will the Packers defend tight end Jason Witten? Top-echelon TEs have gashed Green Bay's defense this season.
*Can the Cowboys slow the Packers' outside pass rush combination of Aaron Kampman and Kabeer-Gbaja Biamila?
*Which team will do a better job establishing the running game and take the heat off their quarterback? The signs point to Dallas, but Ryan Grant is emerging for the Packers.
*Who will win the Al Harris-Terrell Owens matchup? This should be the most compelling individual matchup of the game.
The oddsmakers like the Cowboys by a touchdown. I disagree. I think the Packers' pressure will rattle Dallas quarterback Tony Romo into making mistakes, and I anticipate Brett Favre gradually picking the Cowboys secondary apart. Green Bay is five deep at wide receiver and TE Donald Lee is emerging.
My first upset special of the week: Packers 34, Cowboys 27
Season record in upset picks: 7-4
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
A nightmare season
Can it get any worse for the NFL?
Tuesday's death of Redskins safety Sean Taylor, a 2006 Pro Bowl selection, is another low point in a season full of them. While many of the details of the shooting that ultimately cost Taylor his life have yet to come to light, what has been reported is scary. Little more than a week ago, Taylor's home was burglarized and a knife was left, reportedly on Taylor's pillow, by the robber.
Taylor is the fourth active NFL player to die in 2007.
It started Jan. 1 with Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams being shot to death in a limo just hours after Denver's season-ending loss on New Year's Eve. Broncos teammate Damien Nash collapsed and died after a charity basketball game a few months later. And during the summer, Patriots defensive lineman Marquis Hill drowned.
The league's image also has taken a beating thanks to the Michael Vick dog-fighting case, the Patriots' "spy-gate" revelation and the growing chorus of former players coming forward with major health problems and decrying a lack of support from the league and its players union.
While those stories are bad news, they pale in comparison to the deaths of four young men, all aged 24, with lives full of promise ahead of them.
Tuesday's death of Redskins safety Sean Taylor, a 2006 Pro Bowl selection, is another low point in a season full of them. While many of the details of the shooting that ultimately cost Taylor his life have yet to come to light, what has been reported is scary. Little more than a week ago, Taylor's home was burglarized and a knife was left, reportedly on Taylor's pillow, by the robber.
Taylor is the fourth active NFL player to die in 2007.
It started Jan. 1 with Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams being shot to death in a limo just hours after Denver's season-ending loss on New Year's Eve. Broncos teammate Damien Nash collapsed and died after a charity basketball game a few months later. And during the summer, Patriots defensive lineman Marquis Hill drowned.
The league's image also has taken a beating thanks to the Michael Vick dog-fighting case, the Patriots' "spy-gate" revelation and the growing chorus of former players coming forward with major health problems and decrying a lack of support from the league and its players union.
While those stories are bad news, they pale in comparison to the deaths of four young men, all aged 24, with lives full of promise ahead of them.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
It's Miller Time
Dennis Miller is back on TV with a new show, Sports Unfiltered, on the Versus network.
It's a decent idea - combine Miller's humor with sports. He was far better on Monday Night Football than Tony Kornheiser is, and he seems to know just how far he can go without completely stepping over the line.
The show features a standup routine by Miller at the beginning, which has been hit and miss the past few weeks, usually three interviews, a look at NFL betting lines and sports photos of the week.
The interviews are mixed - Miller was excellent with Jose Canseco, for example, and Tennessee hoops coach Bruce Pearl - two people he wasn't as familiar with. But with athletes he obviously knows, such as Warren Sapp and Charles Barkley, he's come across as more patronizing and uncomfortable. The sad part about that is those are two guys you want to just talk and carry the conversation because they're so clever to begin with.
I could do without his weekly Vegas/betting segment, but Miller's Photo Finish is one of the funniest things on TV. It's reminisicent of a feature from his HBO show, which was excellent.
It's a show well worth watching, but I think there is room for improvement.
It's a decent idea - combine Miller's humor with sports. He was far better on Monday Night Football than Tony Kornheiser is, and he seems to know just how far he can go without completely stepping over the line.
The show features a standup routine by Miller at the beginning, which has been hit and miss the past few weeks, usually three interviews, a look at NFL betting lines and sports photos of the week.
The interviews are mixed - Miller was excellent with Jose Canseco, for example, and Tennessee hoops coach Bruce Pearl - two people he wasn't as familiar with. But with athletes he obviously knows, such as Warren Sapp and Charles Barkley, he's come across as more patronizing and uncomfortable. The sad part about that is those are two guys you want to just talk and carry the conversation because they're so clever to begin with.
I could do without his weekly Vegas/betting segment, but Miller's Photo Finish is one of the funniest things on TV. It's reminisicent of a feature from his HBO show, which was excellent.
It's a show well worth watching, but I think there is room for improvement.
Turkey Day Football
Face it, you're going to watch a lot of football before, during and after you eat a lot of food today!
Some things to look for:
Green Bay (9-1) can all but clinch the NFC North with a victory at Detroit (6-4). Key matchups - the Packers' pass rush (fifth-most sacks) vs. the Lions' woeful pass blocking (32nd); Detroit's passing game (7th in yards) vs. the Packers' pass defense (19th in yards); and the Packers' passing game (2nd) vs. the Lions' pass defense (30th). Anything can happen, particularly in Detroit on Thanksgiving, but it's tough to see an upset here unless the Packers are careless with the football.
N.Y. Jets (2-8) at Dallas (9-1) appears to be the most clear-cut of Thursday's games. The Jets have the fourth-worst defense in the league, and the Cowboys feature a balanced offense that is rated second in the NFL. The Jets will have to score a lot of points to win, and I don't see that happening without injured WR Lavernues Coles.
The trap game is the night game - Indianapolis (8-2) at Atlanta (3-7). Both teams are banged up, but the Falcons are really struggling with their line play. It won't be pretty, but I expect the Colts to run the ball up the middle a lot given that the Falcons' starting DTs are out for the season. Still, the Colts should have more margin for error (if you can believe this) against the Falcons than they had vs. the Chargers a few weeks back.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Some things to look for:
Green Bay (9-1) can all but clinch the NFC North with a victory at Detroit (6-4). Key matchups - the Packers' pass rush (fifth-most sacks) vs. the Lions' woeful pass blocking (32nd); Detroit's passing game (7th in yards) vs. the Packers' pass defense (19th in yards); and the Packers' passing game (2nd) vs. the Lions' pass defense (30th). Anything can happen, particularly in Detroit on Thanksgiving, but it's tough to see an upset here unless the Packers are careless with the football.
N.Y. Jets (2-8) at Dallas (9-1) appears to be the most clear-cut of Thursday's games. The Jets have the fourth-worst defense in the league, and the Cowboys feature a balanced offense that is rated second in the NFL. The Jets will have to score a lot of points to win, and I don't see that happening without injured WR Lavernues Coles.
The trap game is the night game - Indianapolis (8-2) at Atlanta (3-7). Both teams are banged up, but the Falcons are really struggling with their line play. It won't be pretty, but I expect the Colts to run the ball up the middle a lot given that the Falcons' starting DTs are out for the season. Still, the Colts should have more margin for error (if you can believe this) against the Falcons than they had vs. the Chargers a few weeks back.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Friday, November 16, 2007
NFL Week 11 preview
There are a number of intraconference games this weekend that could have a bearing on the playoff picture. I will highlight these by conference.
GAME OF THE WEEK:
Washington (5-4) at Dallas (8-1): The Redskins can help their cause with a victory, but it won't be easy against a Cowboys team that has the second-rated offense and the seventh-rated defense in the NFL. Washington must get its ground game (8th in the NFL) going to control the clock and keep Dallas' high-powered offense off the field. Both teams are stout vs. the run (Dallas allows 86.8 yards per game, while Washington gives up 99.9 ypg). Both teams are much more susceptible to the pass, which gives the Cowboys a distinct advantage. Not having CB Carlos Rodgers and S Sean Taylor will hurt Washington.
GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
NFC
New York (6-3) at Detroit (6-3): A collision of second-place teams coming off losses, both of which would be wild-card teams if the playoffs started today. The Giants must protect the ball - the Lions lead the league in takeaways despite having the 26th-ranked defense. The Giants lead the league in sacks and are in the top ten in pass and run defense. That's not good news for a Lions offense that is third worst in rushing the ball and has allowed the most sacks in the league.
Chicago (4-5) at Seattle (5-4): This is a game the Bears need if they want a shot at returning to the playoffs. The West-leading Seahawks likely will come out throwing, which plays to the Bears' strength on defense. These are not your mother's Monsters of the Midway, however. The Bears' defense is not even in the top 20 this season.
Carolina (4-5) at Green Bay (8-1): Carolina, which is one game out of first in the South despite its record, has not generated much of a passing game due to injuries at quarterback, but Green Bay has been solid vs. the run (allowing fewer than 93 yards per game). Can the Panthers' slow Brett Favre and his fleet of young receivers enough to keep it close?
AFC
Cleveland (5-4) at Baltimore (4-5): If the current Browns win, it's a season sweep for them over the former Browns. After watching the way Pittsburgh threw the ball all over the Ravens two weeks ago, one has to like Cleveland's chances. Running the ball generally has not been a wise choice vs. the Ravens this season (73.7 ypg). The Ravens' offense is in the hands of Kyle Boller, and they must improve their scoring efficiency (they've got the fourth-fewest points in the league). They'll get opportunities vs. the leaky Browns defense.
San Diego (5-4) at Jacksonville (6-3): A wise person told me this about the Chargers - they had six picks off Peyton Manning, had two return touchdowns and benefited from two missed FGs by a likely Hall of Famer ... and still were lucky to beat the Colts last week. This could be a good game for Bolts QB Philip Rivers to get on track because Jacksonville struggles at times on pass defense. The Jags get QB David Garrard back but are missing DT Marcus Stroud, who is suspended. Jacksonville has the league's No. 3 rushing offense (142 ypg).
Kansas City (4-5) at Indianapolis (7-2): The Chiefs turn over the QB reins to Brodie Croyle, but he'll have to make due without RB Larry Johnson. The Colts return home with a two-game losing streak and without Pro Bowl DE Dwight Freeney, who is out for the season because of a foot injury. If the Colts get TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison back from injury, they'll exploit the Chiefs secondary.
GAME OF THE WEAK
St. Louis (1-8) at San Francisco (2-7): Remember back when this was one of the NFL's best rivalries? Both teams have been decimated by injuries, but the Rams are getting healthier at the skill positions.
UPSET SPECIAL
Tennessee (6-3) at Denver (4-5): The Broncos are at home and are favored, but it's tough to see them running on the Titans or containing Vince Young, who showed signs of life last week.
Season record in upset picks: 7-3
GAME OF THE WEEK:
Washington (5-4) at Dallas (8-1): The Redskins can help their cause with a victory, but it won't be easy against a Cowboys team that has the second-rated offense and the seventh-rated defense in the NFL. Washington must get its ground game (8th in the NFL) going to control the clock and keep Dallas' high-powered offense off the field. Both teams are stout vs. the run (Dallas allows 86.8 yards per game, while Washington gives up 99.9 ypg). Both teams are much more susceptible to the pass, which gives the Cowboys a distinct advantage. Not having CB Carlos Rodgers and S Sean Taylor will hurt Washington.
GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
NFC
New York (6-3) at Detroit (6-3): A collision of second-place teams coming off losses, both of which would be wild-card teams if the playoffs started today. The Giants must protect the ball - the Lions lead the league in takeaways despite having the 26th-ranked defense. The Giants lead the league in sacks and are in the top ten in pass and run defense. That's not good news for a Lions offense that is third worst in rushing the ball and has allowed the most sacks in the league.
Chicago (4-5) at Seattle (5-4): This is a game the Bears need if they want a shot at returning to the playoffs. The West-leading Seahawks likely will come out throwing, which plays to the Bears' strength on defense. These are not your mother's Monsters of the Midway, however. The Bears' defense is not even in the top 20 this season.
Carolina (4-5) at Green Bay (8-1): Carolina, which is one game out of first in the South despite its record, has not generated much of a passing game due to injuries at quarterback, but Green Bay has been solid vs. the run (allowing fewer than 93 yards per game). Can the Panthers' slow Brett Favre and his fleet of young receivers enough to keep it close?
AFC
Cleveland (5-4) at Baltimore (4-5): If the current Browns win, it's a season sweep for them over the former Browns. After watching the way Pittsburgh threw the ball all over the Ravens two weeks ago, one has to like Cleveland's chances. Running the ball generally has not been a wise choice vs. the Ravens this season (73.7 ypg). The Ravens' offense is in the hands of Kyle Boller, and they must improve their scoring efficiency (they've got the fourth-fewest points in the league). They'll get opportunities vs. the leaky Browns defense.
San Diego (5-4) at Jacksonville (6-3): A wise person told me this about the Chargers - they had six picks off Peyton Manning, had two return touchdowns and benefited from two missed FGs by a likely Hall of Famer ... and still were lucky to beat the Colts last week. This could be a good game for Bolts QB Philip Rivers to get on track because Jacksonville struggles at times on pass defense. The Jags get QB David Garrard back but are missing DT Marcus Stroud, who is suspended. Jacksonville has the league's No. 3 rushing offense (142 ypg).
Kansas City (4-5) at Indianapolis (7-2): The Chiefs turn over the QB reins to Brodie Croyle, but he'll have to make due without RB Larry Johnson. The Colts return home with a two-game losing streak and without Pro Bowl DE Dwight Freeney, who is out for the season because of a foot injury. If the Colts get TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison back from injury, they'll exploit the Chiefs secondary.
GAME OF THE WEAK
St. Louis (1-8) at San Francisco (2-7): Remember back when this was one of the NFL's best rivalries? Both teams have been decimated by injuries, but the Rams are getting healthier at the skill positions.
UPSET SPECIAL
Tennessee (6-3) at Denver (4-5): The Broncos are at home and are favored, but it's tough to see them running on the Titans or containing Vince Young, who showed signs of life last week.
Season record in upset picks: 7-3
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