Here is how I see the AFC shaking out this season, division by division.
EAST
1. New England - DL Richard Seymour's injury hurts, but the Pats are loaded on offense, even if Randy Moss isn't what he once was. QB Tom Brady has better targets and RB Lawrence Maroney is primed for a huge year.
2. New York Jets - Acquiring RB Thomas Jones and drafting CB Derrelle Revis were brilliant moves. The Jets face a tough schedule, but they shored up two weaknesses and are not as far behind the Pats as you might think.
3. Buffalo - Huge losses through free agency and trades have hurt, but the Bills have drafted very well two years in a row and most of those picks will play big roles. If QB JP Losman trends upward again, the Bills may surprise.
4. Miami - It's tough for me to see a team with no offensive line, a disappointing running game and some questionable drafting do well, especially in this division. Obtaining QB Trent Green and LB Joey Porter helps, but the Dolphins should have started their rebuild job because they won't contend.
NORTH
1. Baltimore - An aging team, but a good one. Adding RB Willis McGahee adds versatility to the offense, but it all comes down to keeping QB Steve McNair healthy. If he is and the Ravens' receiving corps steps up, look out, because Baltimore has a championship caliber defense.
2. Cincinnati - The Carson Palmer-directed offense should pile up points. Two big questions marks, however, are can the defense stop anyone and what if RB Rudi Johnson, whose yards per carry dropped off some last season, gets injured.
3. Pittsburgh - I see more questions than answers with this team. How will the players respond to Coach Mike Tomlin after 15 years of Bill Cowher? How will the offense and defense overcome the losses of C Jeff Hartings and LB Joey Porter? Which Ben Roethlisberger will we see - the 2005 Super Bowl-winning version or the 2006 distracted, injured and out-of-sync model?
4. Cleveland - The Browns have upgraded their talent level, particularly on offense, where their line should be a lot better and Jamal Lewis will help the running game. If anyone can get the football to TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards, they might be on to something. Still, the defense has too many holes to fill, but the Browns are on the right track, finally.
SOUTH
1. Indianapolis - The Colts sustained a lot of losses on defense, but then it wasn't very good last year until the playoffs. The offense should hum, particularly with RB Joseph Addai gaining a year of experience and the addition of rookie WR Anthony Gonzalez. Losing LT Tarik Glenn (retirement) and DT Anthony McFarland (injury) will bring the Colts closer to the pack this season.
2. Jacksonville - Great defense, very good running game and no passing game. Yes, David Garrard is more mobile than Byron Leftwich, but he's not much more accurate and neither of them have had good options to throw to since Jimmy Smith retired. The Leftwich release signals to me the team better win now or some others, notably Coach Jack Del Rio, might be sent packing.
3. Houston - The Texans' young defense will improve, and Matt Schaub and Ahman Green are big upgrades at QB and RB, respectively.
4. Tennessee - Can QB Vince Young do it all by himself? Given the Titans' free-agent losses at RB and WR, he might have to. Still, as much as he runs with the ball, it's hard to imagine he won't get injured at some point, which would make the Titans one of the league's worst teams.
WEST
1. San Diego - The Chargers are loaded everywhere but receiver, and the thinking here is that Vincent Jackson and rookie Craig Davis change that. The defense should be dominant, and then there are a few guys named Tomlinson, Gates and Rivers playing behind a very solid line on offense. Still, the Bolts have to win a playoff game with this crew.
2. Denver - If QB Jay Cutler improves and RB Travis Henry gets healthy, the offense will be high-powered. Stopping the run will be the barometer of the defense, perhaps ultimately the team's success.
3. Kansas City - Another team that puzzles me. If you're a playoff team, which the Chiefs were last season, why give your starting quarterback away when you have no viable replacement? The Chiefs absorbed some big losses on the offensive line, and the secondary is slow.
4. Oakland - Puzzling doesn't even begin to describe this outfit. You know they have not signed the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, JaMarcus Russell, as of Labor Day. They did sign RB Dominic Rhodes, but he promptly was suspended for a substance-abuse violation. Adding QB Daunte Culpepper is a good short-term fix, and the defense again should be very good.
Surprises: Buffalo (it's probably a year too early), Cleveland
Look out below: Miami, Cincinnati (I could see the bottom fall out), Tennessee, Kansas City (I am not sold on the Chiefs)
Playoff teams: New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis, San Diego, Denver, New York Jets
Conference champ: San Diego over New England
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