NFL Week 5 Preview

Ever wonder if maybe an assistant had more to do with a team's success than a head coach did?

I've pondered this in light of some fall-offs by a couple of teams recently.

Exhibit A: The Titans
While many plan Tennessee's defensive plunge (and it's a big one) on the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth, remember that Haynesworth had an uneven career with the Titans (injuries, suspensions, lackadaisical play mixed with sheer dominance). More of a constant was coordinator Jim Schwartz, who led the Lions to their first victory in two seasons an clearly has instilled a new attitude in the Motor City.

Exhibit B: The Cardinals
Arizona lost Todd Haley when the Chiefs hired the offensive coordinator to be their new head coach, and the Cards fired defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, who then re-joined Haley in KC. The result - the Cards come out of the bye week 1-2 and appear to have some serious problems on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are in total rebuild mode so it's tough four games in to evaluate the success/failure of the former Birds assistants.

Exhibit C: The Jaguars
In 2007, Jacksonville nearly defeated then-unbeaten New England in the playoffs, and my guess is their physical style gave the Giants plenty to prepare for in the subsequent Super Bowl. Assistant Mike Smith becomes the Falcons coach, and thanks to his addition and that of QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner, the Dirty Birds turn it around. The Jags, meanwhile, sank to last in the AFC South with a 5-11 record.

GAMES OF THE WEEK
We have a couple of what I like to call "sort out" games on tap Sunday. First, Atlanta (2-1) travels to San Francisco (3-1), second, New England (3-1) visits Denver (4-0) and finally Cincinnati (3-1) travels to Baltimore (3-1).

The Falcons appear to be a much better indoors team than outdoors team, and in their loss to the Patriots in Week 3 New England played them physically. That is the formula I expect San Francisco to once again embrace. A loss would drop the Falcons two games behind the Saints in the NFC South, an intraconference loss could haunt the Birds in tiebreaker scenarios. The 49ers can solidify their hold on what again appears to be a very weak NFC West.

Are the Broncos for real? We'll know for sure this week. After a diet of Cincinnati (which appears decent at 3-1), Cleveland (0-4), Oakland (1-3) and Dallas (shaky 2-2), the Patriots come to town fresh off two consecutive triumphs over previously undefeated teams (Atlanta and Baltimore). Denver's defense has been thoroughly impressive, and I think they could give the Patriots a lot of problems. New England also won't have injured RB Fred Taylor, who has appeared to be their steadiest option in the ground game. But can the Broncos score any points against New England?

I'm not surprised Baltimore and Cincinnati are 3-1. Joe Flacco's progression in his second season has been impressive (kudos to coach John Harbaugh and coordinator Cam Cameron) for the Ravens, and the return of Carson Palmer at QB has helped balance the Bengals' offense a bit more. We know Baltimore has a terrific defense, but Cincinnati has quietly built a sturdy one as well. When was the last time this game was for the NFC North lead?

Many of the other games this week appear to be mismatches, but I'm sure there will be at least one surprise. I could see Dallas stumbling at Kansas City or the unbeaten Colts losing at Tennessee. Should the Titans lose, their season would effectively be over at 0-5. A lot depends on the health of the Titans secondary.

TOP FIVE
1. New Orleans (4-0) - Life's a Brees when you have a bye
2. Indianapolis (4-0) - I don't doubt Peyton Manning no matter how many injuries the Colts have
3. N.Y. Giants (4-0) - Battling through a ton of injuries, but the one to Eli could be costly
4. Minnesota (4-0) - As much as I hate to admit it, if this team fixes a few things look out
5. Denver (4-0) - That's D as in Denver
(I know the four unbeaten teams, it's lame). Others receiving votes: New England (3-1), Chicago (3-1), Baltimore (3-1), Philadelphia (2-1), Atlanta (2-1)

BOTTOM FIVE
32. Cleveland (0-4) - It doesn't matter who the QB is, who will he throw to?
31. St. Louis (0-4) - Just bad in all three phases of the game, and undisciplined on top of it.
30. Kansas City (0-4) - They could regret giving Cassel that longterm contract so quickly
29. Tampa Bay (0-4) - Showed a pulse vs. the Redskins
28. Oakland (1-3) - Commitment to ineptitude continues
Others receiving votes: Carolina (0-3), Tennessee (0-4), Seattle (1-3), Washington (2-2)

Week 4 Review

Say this for the New England Patriots, they are tough to beat at home.

For the second consecutive week the Pats knocked off an undefeated team in Foxboro, Mass. Last week it was the Atlanta Falcons, this week the Baltimore Ravens. New England also regained a share of first place in the AFC East when the New York Jets fell at New Orleans.

However, the Pats were "this close" to possibly losing thanks to a costly fourth-down drop inside the 10 by Ravens receiver Mark Clayton. And despite the two home victories, New England could not run the ball against Baltimore and QB Tom Brady was good, but not great, although he did spread the ball around to nine different receivers.

Losses by the Jets and Ravens left just five teams undefeated (Indianapolis, Denver, New York Giants, New Orleans and Minnesota - which plays Green Bay in the Brett Favre Bowl on Monday night).

Oh Yeahs
Of those unbeaten teams, is there one that stands out to you? How about surprises you?

There are several who surprise me, starting with Denver. I was ready to use the weak opponent argument against the Broncos, but they've handed the surprising Bengals their only loss and Dallas is not a pushover. But the surprise of surprises? 26, as in just 26 points allowed ... for the season.

For all of the controversy the Broncos endured over rookie Coach Josh McDaniels' courtship of Matt Cassel, the Jay Cutler trade and the Brandon Marshall preseason suspension, it's the defense that has carried the day. With the San Diego Chargers banged up at 2-2 and sinking like a rock in the AFC West, the Broncos probably could go .500 the rest of the way and win the division. ...

I'm not surprised the Vikings are unbeaten (easy schedule), nor the Giants (just plain good), nor am I the Colts are (I will not doubt Payton Manning). The Saints are a mild surprise to me because they've knocked off tough Philadelphia (road) and Jets (home) squads. But the Broncos - that's one that I (and many others didn't see coming).

Oh no's
There also are six winless teams and seven more that are 1-2 or 1-3. That's 13 teams who have a very tough road to making the playoffs. Is parity dead?

The winless include: St. Louis, Cleveland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Carolina and Tennessee. None of the first four surprise me, but I expected more from Carolina, which appears out of sync on offense and susceptible to the run on defense. And I fully expected Tennessee to contend for the AFC South title. Already trailing the Colts by four games, the Titans can forget that and focus on a wild-card berth, or maybe just winning a game! Most shocking about Tennessee's fall? The defense, which has given up the fifth-most points.

Week 1 Rewind

First things first about Week 1 of the NFL season ...

We can speculate all we want to during the offseason, and the preseason for that matter, about how much better/worse/healthier/softer/etc. someone or some team appears. None of that matters until the games matter.

Case in point - many anointed Chicago and Green Bay as Super Bowl contenders after the Bears acquired quarterback Jay Cutler and the Packers steamrolled everyone in sight. What many conveniently forgot is Cutler threw 18 interceptions last season while throwing to a far more talented group of receivers than he has in Chicago. Meanwhile, we should have listened to Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt's comments after his team lost in the preseason to the Packers. The Cards coach said, in effect, that his defense hadn't game-planned for the Packers, who obviously had done just the opposite. So of course the Packers looked unstoppable.

Repeat, nothing matters until the games start to matter.

Week 1 surprise teams
The Good - The Raiders have a pulse! Oakland played physical defense and might have more talent on offense than some realize. Really liked rookie WR Louis Murphy. ... The Chiefs, while clearly less talented than the Ravens, could have won that game at Baltimore. It says here that Todd Haley had a lot more to do with Arizona's success last season than has been reported. ... The Jets started a rookie QB in Mark Sanchez and had two starters in their front seven suspended and they dominated the Texans in Houston. ... The Eagles overpowered the Panthers in every phase of the game. I had questions about the Philly defense after defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's passing, the free-agent exodus of safety Brian Dawkins and the season-ending injury to middle linebacker Stewart Bradley. I have a lot fewer questions now. ... The Bengals, boosted by a vastly improved defense, should have defeated the Broncos.

The Bad - The Panthers looked lost, aside from one sustained drive early in the game, in getting hammered by the Eagles. I think I will regret picking them to win the NFC South. ... The Chargers appear - again - as if they're only going to play as well as they think they need to. I suspect they're going to lose more games this season than they should if that is not corrected. ... The Dolphins, another team I liked going into this season, did exactly what they didn't do last season - commit turnovers and penalties by the bushel full. With a tougher schedule, Miami could take a huge step back if that isn't fixed. ... The Cardinals got the 49ers' best shot, and they couldn't recover. Losing a home opener to a division rival is damaging on several levels.

The good news? It's just one week of 17.

Top 5 Teams
1. Pittsburgh - Give Big Ben the ball and 2 minutes and you'll pay.
2. NY Giants - They won't be the most exciting team to watch, but they won't beat themselves either
3. Philadelphia - The Eagles made a statement, punking the defending NFC South champs on their home turf.
4. New England - All those new defenders have some things to learn.
5. Minnesota - The Vikings won one they should have and appear strong in all phases except kick coverage.

Bottom 5 Teams
32. St. Louis - It's going to be a long season under the Arch
31. Cleveland - Couldn't pass on the Vikings.
30. Detroit - The offense showed some signs of life, but the defense cannot defend the pass.
29. Houston - Thrashed at home
28. Carolina - Really thrashed at home

Key injuries

• Eagles QB Donovan McNabb - Not only does this hurt the team's continuity, but think what it does to the discussion about Michael Vick's role.
• Bears LB Brian Urlacher - A huge loss for a defense that had some teeth.
• Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson - I might regret writing this, but I think he's only the team's second-best back at this point.
• Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez - Indy already appeared thin at this position.

Coming up ... the Week 2 Preview on Friday