Here is how I see the AFC shaking out this season, division by division.
EAST
1. New England - DL Richard Seymour's injury hurts, but the Pats are loaded on offense, even if Randy Moss isn't what he once was. QB Tom Brady has better targets and RB Lawrence Maroney is primed for a huge year.
2. New York Jets - Acquiring RB Thomas Jones and drafting CB Derrelle Revis were brilliant moves. The Jets face a tough schedule, but they shored up two weaknesses and are not as far behind the Pats as you might think.
3. Buffalo - Huge losses through free agency and trades have hurt, but the Bills have drafted very well two years in a row and most of those picks will play big roles. If QB JP Losman trends upward again, the Bills may surprise.
4. Miami - It's tough for me to see a team with no offensive line, a disappointing running game and some questionable drafting do well, especially in this division. Obtaining QB Trent Green and LB Joey Porter helps, but the Dolphins should have started their rebuild job because they won't contend.
NORTH
1. Baltimore - An aging team, but a good one. Adding RB Willis McGahee adds versatility to the offense, but it all comes down to keeping QB Steve McNair healthy. If he is and the Ravens' receiving corps steps up, look out, because Baltimore has a championship caliber defense.
2. Cincinnati - The Carson Palmer-directed offense should pile up points. Two big questions marks, however, are can the defense stop anyone and what if RB Rudi Johnson, whose yards per carry dropped off some last season, gets injured.
3. Pittsburgh - I see more questions than answers with this team. How will the players respond to Coach Mike Tomlin after 15 years of Bill Cowher? How will the offense and defense overcome the losses of C Jeff Hartings and LB Joey Porter? Which Ben Roethlisberger will we see - the 2005 Super Bowl-winning version or the 2006 distracted, injured and out-of-sync model?
4. Cleveland - The Browns have upgraded their talent level, particularly on offense, where their line should be a lot better and Jamal Lewis will help the running game. If anyone can get the football to TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards, they might be on to something. Still, the defense has too many holes to fill, but the Browns are on the right track, finally.
SOUTH
1. Indianapolis - The Colts sustained a lot of losses on defense, but then it wasn't very good last year until the playoffs. The offense should hum, particularly with RB Joseph Addai gaining a year of experience and the addition of rookie WR Anthony Gonzalez. Losing LT Tarik Glenn (retirement) and DT Anthony McFarland (injury) will bring the Colts closer to the pack this season.
2. Jacksonville - Great defense, very good running game and no passing game. Yes, David Garrard is more mobile than Byron Leftwich, but he's not much more accurate and neither of them have had good options to throw to since Jimmy Smith retired. The Leftwich release signals to me the team better win now or some others, notably Coach Jack Del Rio, might be sent packing.
3. Houston - The Texans' young defense will improve, and Matt Schaub and Ahman Green are big upgrades at QB and RB, respectively.
4. Tennessee - Can QB Vince Young do it all by himself? Given the Titans' free-agent losses at RB and WR, he might have to. Still, as much as he runs with the ball, it's hard to imagine he won't get injured at some point, which would make the Titans one of the league's worst teams.
WEST
1. San Diego - The Chargers are loaded everywhere but receiver, and the thinking here is that Vincent Jackson and rookie Craig Davis change that. The defense should be dominant, and then there are a few guys named Tomlinson, Gates and Rivers playing behind a very solid line on offense. Still, the Bolts have to win a playoff game with this crew.
2. Denver - If QB Jay Cutler improves and RB Travis Henry gets healthy, the offense will be high-powered. Stopping the run will be the barometer of the defense, perhaps ultimately the team's success.
3. Kansas City - Another team that puzzles me. If you're a playoff team, which the Chiefs were last season, why give your starting quarterback away when you have no viable replacement? The Chiefs absorbed some big losses on the offensive line, and the secondary is slow.
4. Oakland - Puzzling doesn't even begin to describe this outfit. You know they have not signed the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, JaMarcus Russell, as of Labor Day. They did sign RB Dominic Rhodes, but he promptly was suspended for a substance-abuse violation. Adding QB Daunte Culpepper is a good short-term fix, and the defense again should be very good.
Surprises: Buffalo (it's probably a year too early), Cleveland
Look out below: Miami, Cincinnati (I could see the bottom fall out), Tennessee, Kansas City (I am not sold on the Chiefs)
Playoff teams: New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis, San Diego, Denver, New York Jets
Conference champ: San Diego over New England
Sunday, September 02, 2007
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Camping in the NFC West
Here is a look at key questions (and maybe an answer or two) facing each team in the NFC West midway through training camp.
ARIZONA
Questions: Another new coach in the desert - will anything change? Will the offensive line, the weak link for an otherwise potent group, improve?
Answers: Yes, new coach Ken Whisenhunt comes from a winning organization - Pittsburgh - and expect the Cardinals to be far more disciplined. One of Whisenhunt's key hires was Steelers assistant Russ Grimm as offensive coordinator and line coach. Drafting tackle Levi Brown will help the line.
SAN FRANCISCO
Questions: Have they improved enough to win the division, as many predict? Can QB Alex Smith continue to progress into an elite quarterback?
Answers: Possibly. Adding CB Nate Clements, S Michael Lewis and WR Darrell Jackson in free agency addressed three need areas. The continued health and well-being of TE Vernon Davis will benefit the offense greatly. Smith is a good QB and getting better. He's going to play for his third coordinator in three seasons, so it's premature to expect him to go to the next level.
ST. LOUIS
Questions: What were the Rams thinking in the offseason, when their signings were on offense, while the defense clearly had the needs? Will the Rams have any run defense?
Answers: Adding WR Drew Bennett and TE Randy McMichael should improve the Rams' red-zone efficiency and mean even more TDs. They likely will need them because outside of rookie lineman Adam Carriker and DE James Hall, they didn't add much.
SEATTLE
Questions: Was last season's 9-7 record an aberration, or are the Seahawks falling from their perch atop this division? Can they win with an undersized defense?
Answers: Injuries racked the Seahawks in 2006 - starting with RB Shaun Alexander and continuing through QB Matt Hasselbeck and WR Bobby Engram. If those three are healthy, and WRs Deion Branch and Nate Burleson assimilate better into the offense in their second season, look out. Despite its lack of size, Seattle's defense is loaded with playmakers. Adding DE Patrick Kerney and S Deon Grant will help stabilze things.
ARIZONA
Questions: Another new coach in the desert - will anything change? Will the offensive line, the weak link for an otherwise potent group, improve?
Answers: Yes, new coach Ken Whisenhunt comes from a winning organization - Pittsburgh - and expect the Cardinals to be far more disciplined. One of Whisenhunt's key hires was Steelers assistant Russ Grimm as offensive coordinator and line coach. Drafting tackle Levi Brown will help the line.
SAN FRANCISCO
Questions: Have they improved enough to win the division, as many predict? Can QB Alex Smith continue to progress into an elite quarterback?
Answers: Possibly. Adding CB Nate Clements, S Michael Lewis and WR Darrell Jackson in free agency addressed three need areas. The continued health and well-being of TE Vernon Davis will benefit the offense greatly. Smith is a good QB and getting better. He's going to play for his third coordinator in three seasons, so it's premature to expect him to go to the next level.
ST. LOUIS
Questions: What were the Rams thinking in the offseason, when their signings were on offense, while the defense clearly had the needs? Will the Rams have any run defense?
Answers: Adding WR Drew Bennett and TE Randy McMichael should improve the Rams' red-zone efficiency and mean even more TDs. They likely will need them because outside of rookie lineman Adam Carriker and DE James Hall, they didn't add much.
SEATTLE
Questions: Was last season's 9-7 record an aberration, or are the Seahawks falling from their perch atop this division? Can they win with an undersized defense?
Answers: Injuries racked the Seahawks in 2006 - starting with RB Shaun Alexander and continuing through QB Matt Hasselbeck and WR Bobby Engram. If those three are healthy, and WRs Deion Branch and Nate Burleson assimilate better into the offense in their second season, look out. Despite its lack of size, Seattle's defense is loaded with playmakers. Adding DE Patrick Kerney and S Deon Grant will help stabilze things.
Camping in the NFC South
Here is a look at key questions (and maybe an answer or two) facing each team in the NFC South midway through training camp.
ATLANTA
Question: How much will the Michael Vick ordeal affect the team?
Answer: Is there anything else? Not only is the Vick case a distraction to the team, there is a good chance the club has lost its franchise player for at least a season and possibly forever. With RB Warrick Dunn ailing and some inconsistent receivers, their offense has no chance. Fan outrage against Vick likely will be taken out on the team. It will be a long season in Atlanta.
CAROLINA
Questions: Are QB Jake Delhomme's best days behind him? Who will emerge at running back DeAngelo Williams or DeShaun Foster?
Answers: Delhomme's play slipped last year, but injuries to the offense had a lot to do with it. He's the Panthers' best hope for returning to the playoffs. Williams' star is rising, and if Foster is nicked again, look for the speedy Williams to take more carries.
NEW ORLEANS
Questions: Are the Saints, gulp, a legitimate Super Bowl contender? Can the secondary, which is one of the team's few weak links improve?
Answers: I think the Saints, along with the Cowboys, are Super Bowl front-runners in the NFC. They have the most dangerous offense in the NFC and a bend-but-don't break defense. If the defense can increase its takeaways and get better play from the secondary, the Saints might be marching in with the Lombardi Trophy.
TAMPA BAY
Questions: Is this a win or else season for Coach Jon Gruden? Will young players such as QB Chris Simms, RB Cadillac Williams and WR Michael Clayon emerge?
Answers: I think Chucky is in a lot of hot water. His offenses have not ranked higher than 22 in any of the past three seasons, and the Bucs have averaged less than seven wins per season over the past four. Gruden is going with Jeff Garcia at QB, so Simms will sit. Williams is hurt by Gruden's preference to pass more than run. Clayton might be displaced in the lineup by Maurice Stovall.
ATLANTA
Question: How much will the Michael Vick ordeal affect the team?
Answer: Is there anything else? Not only is the Vick case a distraction to the team, there is a good chance the club has lost its franchise player for at least a season and possibly forever. With RB Warrick Dunn ailing and some inconsistent receivers, their offense has no chance. Fan outrage against Vick likely will be taken out on the team. It will be a long season in Atlanta.
CAROLINA
Questions: Are QB Jake Delhomme's best days behind him? Who will emerge at running back DeAngelo Williams or DeShaun Foster?
Answers: Delhomme's play slipped last year, but injuries to the offense had a lot to do with it. He's the Panthers' best hope for returning to the playoffs. Williams' star is rising, and if Foster is nicked again, look for the speedy Williams to take more carries.
NEW ORLEANS
Questions: Are the Saints, gulp, a legitimate Super Bowl contender? Can the secondary, which is one of the team's few weak links improve?
Answers: I think the Saints, along with the Cowboys, are Super Bowl front-runners in the NFC. They have the most dangerous offense in the NFC and a bend-but-don't break defense. If the defense can increase its takeaways and get better play from the secondary, the Saints might be marching in with the Lombardi Trophy.
TAMPA BAY
Questions: Is this a win or else season for Coach Jon Gruden? Will young players such as QB Chris Simms, RB Cadillac Williams and WR Michael Clayon emerge?
Answers: I think Chucky is in a lot of hot water. His offenses have not ranked higher than 22 in any of the past three seasons, and the Bucs have averaged less than seven wins per season over the past four. Gruden is going with Jeff Garcia at QB, so Simms will sit. Williams is hurt by Gruden's preference to pass more than run. Clayton might be displaced in the lineup by Maurice Stovall.
Camping in the NFC North
Here is a look at key questions (and maybe an answer or two) facing each team in the NFC North midway through training camp.
CHICAGO
Questions: Will they miss RB Thomas Jones? Is Rex Grossman a help or hindrance in the Bears' quest to return to the Super Bowl?
Answers: The thinking here is RB Cedric Benson is injury prone and would be helped by having a tough runner such as Jones to share the load with. Neither wanted that even though it would have helped the Bears and their own career longevity, so the younger Benson stayed. If Grossman can reduce his mistakes, that will be a big positive. I'm undecided if he can be a franchise QB, however.
DETROIT
Questions: Is this the year the Lions' offense takes off under coordinator Mike Martz? Can the defense keep up or at least make enough plays to keep them in games?
Answers: Adding WR Calvin Johnson increases the chances of the offense soaring, but they need RB Kevin Jones healthy, which is not a guarantee yet. The Lions' D appears solid on the line and features a rising star in LB Ernie Sims, beyond that, the back seven has some issues.
GREEN BAY
Questions: Who will run the football for the Packers? Who will catch the football for the Packers?
Answers: Rookie Brandon Jackson and third-down back Noah Herron are the front-runners until Vernand Morency gets healthy. Donald Driver has been Brett Favre's go-to receiver, but look for second-year man Greg Jennings, Ruvell Martin and rookie James Jones to make impacts.
MINNESOTA
Questions: Will they forget the passing game entirely and just run every play? Can the pass defense get any worse?
Answers: It wouldn't be a bad idea with rookie Adrian Peterson and veteran Chester Taylor to hand off to. Peterson has looked good in preseason. QB Tavaris Jackson is green, and he has few, if any, reliable targets. No, the pass defense was awful last season despite having CB Antoine Winfield and S Darren Sharper, both of whom are Pro Bowl caliber. Beyond them, the Vikings are hurting.
CHICAGO
Questions: Will they miss RB Thomas Jones? Is Rex Grossman a help or hindrance in the Bears' quest to return to the Super Bowl?
Answers: The thinking here is RB Cedric Benson is injury prone and would be helped by having a tough runner such as Jones to share the load with. Neither wanted that even though it would have helped the Bears and their own career longevity, so the younger Benson stayed. If Grossman can reduce his mistakes, that will be a big positive. I'm undecided if he can be a franchise QB, however.
DETROIT
Questions: Is this the year the Lions' offense takes off under coordinator Mike Martz? Can the defense keep up or at least make enough plays to keep them in games?
Answers: Adding WR Calvin Johnson increases the chances of the offense soaring, but they need RB Kevin Jones healthy, which is not a guarantee yet. The Lions' D appears solid on the line and features a rising star in LB Ernie Sims, beyond that, the back seven has some issues.
GREEN BAY
Questions: Who will run the football for the Packers? Who will catch the football for the Packers?
Answers: Rookie Brandon Jackson and third-down back Noah Herron are the front-runners until Vernand Morency gets healthy. Donald Driver has been Brett Favre's go-to receiver, but look for second-year man Greg Jennings, Ruvell Martin and rookie James Jones to make impacts.
MINNESOTA
Questions: Will they forget the passing game entirely and just run every play? Can the pass defense get any worse?
Answers: It wouldn't be a bad idea with rookie Adrian Peterson and veteran Chester Taylor to hand off to. Peterson has looked good in preseason. QB Tavaris Jackson is green, and he has few, if any, reliable targets. No, the pass defense was awful last season despite having CB Antoine Winfield and S Darren Sharper, both of whom are Pro Bowl caliber. Beyond them, the Vikings are hurting.
Camping in the NFC East
Here is a look at key questions (and maybe an answer or two) facing each team in the NFC East midway through training camp.
DALLAS
Questions: How will QB Tony Romo respond to being the man from the get go? How long until WR Terrell Owens erupts? What changes can we look for under Coach Wade Phillips?
Answers: Romo has to play well for the Cowboys to make a deep playoff run. It will be interesting to watch how opponents adjust now that there is a book on him. If Owens hasn't erupted already, it probably won't take long. Phillips will help the defense rise to the next level - dominant. How he handles Owens could be another story.
NEW YORK
Questions: How much will they miss RB Tiki Barber? What if DE Michael Strahan retires?
Answers: Barber is irreplaceable, but the Giants will go with massive Brandon Jacobs and nearly as punishing Reuben Droughes at running back. Far more power, far less versatility. DE Osi Umenyiora will discover how hard it is when you're double-teamed every play. He has the tools to excel, but if Strahan follows through on his threat to retire, it will hurt.
PHILADELPHIA
Questions: Will QB Donovan McNabb stay healthy all season? Can the defense solve its problems vs. the run?
Answers: McNabb's health is the storyline of the summer in Philadelphia. He's sustained significant injuries in four of the past five seasons and has missed half of the Eagles' games the past two. If former first-round picks Brodrick Bunkley and Mike Patterson play like first-round picks, that will go a long way toward addressing the Eagles' run-stopping deficiencies.
WASHINGTON
Questions: What happens if QB Jason Campbell misses an extended period of time because of an injury sustained in Week 2 of the exhibition season? Will the team play up to its talent?
Answers: Mark Brunell will take over for Campbell, which means the Redskins likely will run the ball even more as Brunell lacks the arm for any sort of vertical passing game. The team has a lot of players who have been injured or underachieved in the past few years - Clinton Portis, WRs Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randal El, S Sean Taylor and CB Carlos Rogers. It's tough to see Coach Joe Gibbs tolerating much more.
DALLAS
Questions: How will QB Tony Romo respond to being the man from the get go? How long until WR Terrell Owens erupts? What changes can we look for under Coach Wade Phillips?
Answers: Romo has to play well for the Cowboys to make a deep playoff run. It will be interesting to watch how opponents adjust now that there is a book on him. If Owens hasn't erupted already, it probably won't take long. Phillips will help the defense rise to the next level - dominant. How he handles Owens could be another story.
NEW YORK
Questions: How much will they miss RB Tiki Barber? What if DE Michael Strahan retires?
Answers: Barber is irreplaceable, but the Giants will go with massive Brandon Jacobs and nearly as punishing Reuben Droughes at running back. Far more power, far less versatility. DE Osi Umenyiora will discover how hard it is when you're double-teamed every play. He has the tools to excel, but if Strahan follows through on his threat to retire, it will hurt.
PHILADELPHIA
Questions: Will QB Donovan McNabb stay healthy all season? Can the defense solve its problems vs. the run?
Answers: McNabb's health is the storyline of the summer in Philadelphia. He's sustained significant injuries in four of the past five seasons and has missed half of the Eagles' games the past two. If former first-round picks Brodrick Bunkley and Mike Patterson play like first-round picks, that will go a long way toward addressing the Eagles' run-stopping deficiencies.
WASHINGTON
Questions: What happens if QB Jason Campbell misses an extended period of time because of an injury sustained in Week 2 of the exhibition season? Will the team play up to its talent?
Answers: Mark Brunell will take over for Campbell, which means the Redskins likely will run the ball even more as Brunell lacks the arm for any sort of vertical passing game. The team has a lot of players who have been injured or underachieved in the past few years - Clinton Portis, WRs Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randal El, S Sean Taylor and CB Carlos Rogers. It's tough to see Coach Joe Gibbs tolerating much more.
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