2010 AFC Predictions

Better late (or early in this case) than never.

Here is how I see each division shaking out during the 2010 NFL season with a comment after each.

AFC
East - NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
Comment: I see flaws with every team in this division, and I think it will be a dogfight between the top three teams. I considered going with the Dolphins, but I'm reading about too many injuries and external problems to pick them in good conscience now. ... If Mark Sanchez is average at QB, the Jets (whom I think are overrated a bit ) could win. But they need RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson to come up big. ... The Patriots have talent, but have the look of a team in transition. I expect them to play better as the season goes along. ... Ditto the Bills, who will rely heavily on their running game.

North - Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
Comment: Tough call again between the top two teams but I went with the Bengals because I don't see a weak position group on that team, and the Ravens' secondary concerns me quite a bit. ... With all the talk of the Dynamic Duo at WR for the Bengals, the real pressure is on Carson Palmer to produce at QB. He play has slipped the past few years due to injury and inaccuracy. If rebounds, the Bengals could go deep in the playoffs. ... The Ravens have all of the ingredients save for a secondary to also enjoy January (and perhaps February) games. Their offense should be among the league's best, and their front seven on defense remains top-notch. ... I think the Steelers will really struggle without suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger  for the first month of the season. I also am not sold on their offensive line or cornerbacks. They've turned over a fair amount of their roster the past two years and their younger players must play well now or it could be another 8-8 season. ... The Browns have more stability in the front office (Mike Holmgren) and under center (Jake Delhomme), but injuries on defense will hurt early on. Tough to see them doing very well in a stacked division this year.

South - Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville
Comment: The Colts have to fall off some year, and I think this is it. ... The Texans have the pieces for an explosive offense, and they've drafted a lot of talent on defense. If the latter gels and they can win their Week 1 matchup with the Colts, I see not only a division title, but possibly a playoff win in the cards. ... The Colts' lines scare me. Peyton Manning appeared more frustrated during preseason than I've ever seen him (not just about the placement of umpires), and their o-line didn't protect him well vs. vanilla defenses. The frequency of injuries to top players on defense - DE Dwight Freeney and S Bob Sanders - has to be a concern given their ages. ... The Titans are a trendy pick to re-emerge as a contender, but defenses will key on RB Chris Johnson a lot more. So it falls on QB Vince Young to develop into the elite QB his talent indicates he can. If that happens, the Titans could break through. ... The Jaguars have enough talent to be a tough out vs. any opponent, but sustaining a high level of play has been the challenge for them over the past few years.

West - San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
Comment: This will be a very interesting division to follow, and probably not because it will house a truly great team. ... The Chargers have lost a lot of talent - RB LaDainian Tomlinson, LT Marcus McNeill, WR Vincent Jackson, CB Antonio Cromartie, and NT Jamal Williams to name five past Pro Bowl picks - since the 2009 season ended and appear to be heading back to the pack. Perhaps they know something we don't and they have talent ready to replace that quintet. ... The Raiders added quite a bit - QB Jason Campbell, MLB Rolando McClain come to mind - to an underrated group of youngsters. The biggest plus might be coaching stability this season.... The Chiefs seem to be on the same upward track as the Raiders, but perhaps one step behind in the talent department. ... The Broncos traded their best offensive player (WR Brandon Marshall) and lost their best defensive player (sackman Elvis Dumervil) to a season-ending injury in camp. Their top  RB (Knowshown Moreno) is injured and his backup (Correll Buckhalter) has had as many knee surgeries as some team. If last season's second-half implosion, things could spin out of control at an altitude of one mile pretty quickly.

NFL 2008: Week 3 Rewind

How much stock should we put into fast and slow starts by certain teams after just three weeks? There certainly are no lack of suprises thus far.

The Elite (or at least the leaders)
There is no question in my mind now that the NFC East is by far the best division in football. Overall record: 10-2. Dallas, Philadelphia and the Giants are the three best teams in the NFC, and Washington isn't too far behind. ... The AFC has what could mildly be termed as surprise teams leading each Division (Denver, Tennessee, Baltimore and Buffalo). Keep in mind, however, Tennessee was a playoff team in 2007 and Buffalo was the team they beat out. Denver apparently has returned to its AFL roots and decided to try to outscore each opponent, while Baltimore is riding its defense to its strong start.

Home curse
I wonder if losses to Chicago and Jacksonville in the first two games there have dampened the enthusiasm for the Colts' new stadium.

O no
Can there be a more disappointed state of NFL fans than those in Ohio, where Cleveland and Cincinnati are both 0-3? The offenses of both clubs have inexplicably gone MIA. The good news is one of them should get a victory Sunday. They meet in Cincinnati.

State of Misery
It's tough to say they're more disappointed in Missouri, where expectations couldn't have been real high for Kansas City and St. Louis ... but this is bordering on ridiculous. The Chiefs and Rams might be the two worst teams in the NFL. The Rams have the NFL's worst defense and second-worst offense (how does that happen with RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc Bulger and WR Torry Holt?) and have been blown out three weeks in a row. And the rebuilding Chiefs have the third-worst offense. At least their young defense is keeping them in some games.

Good byes
Bye weeks start this week with six teams taking a break. The update on each follows.
Indianapolis - The Colts need a week off to heal an early season rash of injuries, particularly on the offensive line. A 1-2 start definitely was not part of the plan, and it could easily be 0-3.
Miami - The Dolphins are coming off a thrashing of the Patriots and have to feel better about themselves after starting with two duds. Still, there is a ways to go in Miami.
New England - The Patriots aren't going to be the offensive juggernaut they were last season, but who knew the defense would be such a problem? Still, I expect them to iron things out during their down time.
Seattle - I don't think Coach Mike Holmgren had planned on a 1-2 start, but then when you have six receivers injured, it's tough to win. More alarming should be the defense's disappearing act.
NY Giants - I can't wait until they play the Eagles and the Cowboys. The champs are playing like it.
Detroit - Good thing the Rams are in the NFC or I would write the Lions are the worst team in the conference. They have overpaid for older free agents so their defense isn't any better, and their offense - particularly QB Jon Kitna - continues to make mistake after mistake to take them out of games.