Each fall I predict the outcomes of each NFL division. Previously, I posted on my picks for the NFC's four divisions compared to those in three major NFL annuals - Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News and Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo.
What follows are the outcomes of the AFC predictions:
AFC East
Actual: New England, NY Jets, Miami, Buffalo
Bayee: NY Jets, New England, Miami Buffalo
SI: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
TSN: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
PFW: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
The winner is: No one and everyone. The Jets ultimately knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs, but nobody expected a 14-2 Pats regular season.
AFC North
Actual: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati
Bayee: Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
SI: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland
TSN: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland
PFW: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland
The winner is: SI, which also predicted the Steelers will win the Super Bowl. At least the other publications had the sense to pick a playoff team - the Ravens - in first. Not me. I fell for the Bengals. In a season of bad predictions, that was my worst.
AFC South
Actual: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee
Bayee: Houston, Indy, Tennessee, Jacksonville
SI: Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville
TSN: Indy, Tennessee, Houston, Jacksonville
PFW: Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville
The winner is: All three publications got the Colts right, and everyone was wrong on the Jaguars. I take small consolation in having Tennessee third.
AFC West
Actual: Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland, Denver
Bayee: San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
SI: San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Kansas City
TSN: San Diego, Kansas City, Oakland, Broncos
PFW: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
The winner is: No one. TSN at least had the Chiefs second, while SI picked them last. PFW had Denver second. Obviously the Chargers were heavy favorites.
Biggest surprises: Kansas City and Jacksonville
Biggest disappointments: San Diego, Houston and Cincinnati
One interesting note - each of the three NFC disappointments (San Francisco, Dallas and Minnesota) changed coaches during the season. Not only did the three AFC disappointments keep their coaches all season, they kept them for next season (though Houston overhauled its defensive staff).
Showing posts with label Pittsburgh Steelers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pittsburgh Steelers. Show all posts
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Thursday, December 23, 2010
What makes the Steelers tick?
In a recent article I wrote for NFL.com, Pittsburgh wide receiver Hines Ward spells out why the Steelers are playing so well this season and shares his thoughts on the exodus of hitting in the pro game.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
2010 AFC Predictions
Better late (or early in this case) than never.
Here is how I see each division shaking out during the 2010 NFL season with a comment after each.
AFC
East - NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
Comment: I see flaws with every team in this division, and I think it will be a dogfight between the top three teams. I considered going with the Dolphins, but I'm reading about too many injuries and external problems to pick them in good conscience now. ... If Mark Sanchez is average at QB, the Jets (whom I think are overrated a bit ) could win. But they need RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson to come up big. ... The Patriots have talent, but have the look of a team in transition. I expect them to play better as the season goes along. ... Ditto the Bills, who will rely heavily on their running game.
North - Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
Comment: Tough call again between the top two teams but I went with the Bengals because I don't see a weak position group on that team, and the Ravens' secondary concerns me quite a bit. ... With all the talk of the Dynamic Duo at WR for the Bengals, the real pressure is on Carson Palmer to produce at QB. He play has slipped the past few years due to injury and inaccuracy. If rebounds, the Bengals could go deep in the playoffs. ... The Ravens have all of the ingredients save for a secondary to also enjoy January (and perhaps February) games. Their offense should be among the league's best, and their front seven on defense remains top-notch. ... I think the Steelers will really struggle without suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first month of the season. I also am not sold on their offensive line or cornerbacks. They've turned over a fair amount of their roster the past two years and their younger players must play well now or it could be another 8-8 season. ... The Browns have more stability in the front office (Mike Holmgren) and under center (Jake Delhomme), but injuries on defense will hurt early on. Tough to see them doing very well in a stacked division this year.
South - Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville
Comment: The Colts have to fall off some year, and I think this is it. ... The Texans have the pieces for an explosive offense, and they've drafted a lot of talent on defense. If the latter gels and they can win their Week 1 matchup with the Colts, I see not only a division title, but possibly a playoff win in the cards. ... The Colts' lines scare me. Peyton Manning appeared more frustrated during preseason than I've ever seen him (not just about the placement of umpires), and their o-line didn't protect him well vs. vanilla defenses. The frequency of injuries to top players on defense - DE Dwight Freeney and S Bob Sanders - has to be a concern given their ages. ... The Titans are a trendy pick to re-emerge as a contender, but defenses will key on RB Chris Johnson a lot more. So it falls on QB Vince Young to develop into the elite QB his talent indicates he can. If that happens, the Titans could break through. ... The Jaguars have enough talent to be a tough out vs. any opponent, but sustaining a high level of play has been the challenge for them over the past few years.
West - San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
Comment: This will be a very interesting division to follow, and probably not because it will house a truly great team. ... The Chargers have lost a lot of talent - RB LaDainian Tomlinson, LT Marcus McNeill, WR Vincent Jackson, CB Antonio Cromartie, and NT Jamal Williams to name five past Pro Bowl picks - since the 2009 season ended and appear to be heading back to the pack. Perhaps they know something we don't and they have talent ready to replace that quintet. ... The Raiders added quite a bit - QB Jason Campbell, MLB Rolando McClain come to mind - to an underrated group of youngsters. The biggest plus might be coaching stability this season.... The Chiefs seem to be on the same upward track as the Raiders, but perhaps one step behind in the talent department. ... The Broncos traded their best offensive player (WR Brandon Marshall) and lost their best defensive player (sackman Elvis Dumervil) to a season-ending injury in camp. Their top RB (Knowshown Moreno) is injured and his backup (Correll Buckhalter) has had as many knee surgeries as some team. If last season's second-half implosion, things could spin out of control at an altitude of one mile pretty quickly.
Here is how I see each division shaking out during the 2010 NFL season with a comment after each.
AFC
East - NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
Comment: I see flaws with every team in this division, and I think it will be a dogfight between the top three teams. I considered going with the Dolphins, but I'm reading about too many injuries and external problems to pick them in good conscience now. ... If Mark Sanchez is average at QB, the Jets (whom I think are overrated a bit ) could win. But they need RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson to come up big. ... The Patriots have talent, but have the look of a team in transition. I expect them to play better as the season goes along. ... Ditto the Bills, who will rely heavily on their running game.
North - Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
Comment: Tough call again between the top two teams but I went with the Bengals because I don't see a weak position group on that team, and the Ravens' secondary concerns me quite a bit. ... With all the talk of the Dynamic Duo at WR for the Bengals, the real pressure is on Carson Palmer to produce at QB. He play has slipped the past few years due to injury and inaccuracy. If rebounds, the Bengals could go deep in the playoffs. ... The Ravens have all of the ingredients save for a secondary to also enjoy January (and perhaps February) games. Their offense should be among the league's best, and their front seven on defense remains top-notch. ... I think the Steelers will really struggle without suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first month of the season. I also am not sold on their offensive line or cornerbacks. They've turned over a fair amount of their roster the past two years and their younger players must play well now or it could be another 8-8 season. ... The Browns have more stability in the front office (Mike Holmgren) and under center (Jake Delhomme), but injuries on defense will hurt early on. Tough to see them doing very well in a stacked division this year.
South - Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville
Comment: The Colts have to fall off some year, and I think this is it. ... The Texans have the pieces for an explosive offense, and they've drafted a lot of talent on defense. If the latter gels and they can win their Week 1 matchup with the Colts, I see not only a division title, but possibly a playoff win in the cards. ... The Colts' lines scare me. Peyton Manning appeared more frustrated during preseason than I've ever seen him (not just about the placement of umpires), and their o-line didn't protect him well vs. vanilla defenses. The frequency of injuries to top players on defense - DE Dwight Freeney and S Bob Sanders - has to be a concern given their ages. ... The Titans are a trendy pick to re-emerge as a contender, but defenses will key on RB Chris Johnson a lot more. So it falls on QB Vince Young to develop into the elite QB his talent indicates he can. If that happens, the Titans could break through. ... The Jaguars have enough talent to be a tough out vs. any opponent, but sustaining a high level of play has been the challenge for them over the past few years.
West - San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
Comment: This will be a very interesting division to follow, and probably not because it will house a truly great team. ... The Chargers have lost a lot of talent - RB LaDainian Tomlinson, LT Marcus McNeill, WR Vincent Jackson, CB Antonio Cromartie, and NT Jamal Williams to name five past Pro Bowl picks - since the 2009 season ended and appear to be heading back to the pack. Perhaps they know something we don't and they have talent ready to replace that quintet. ... The Raiders added quite a bit - QB Jason Campbell, MLB Rolando McClain come to mind - to an underrated group of youngsters. The biggest plus might be coaching stability this season.... The Chiefs seem to be on the same upward track as the Raiders, but perhaps one step behind in the talent department. ... The Broncos traded their best offensive player (WR Brandon Marshall) and lost their best defensive player (sackman Elvis Dumervil) to a season-ending injury in camp. Their top RB (Knowshown Moreno) is injured and his backup (Correll Buckhalter) has had as many knee surgeries as some team. If last season's second-half implosion, things could spin out of control at an altitude of one mile pretty quickly.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Another Super storyline
Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm were two of Bill Cowher's top lieutenants when he was coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both interviewed for Cowher's job when he retired after the 2006 season.
Neither got it, and now both are architects of the Arizona Cardinals' rise to NFC champions.
As you know the Steelers, and the man who was selected to replace Cowher, Mike Tomlin, will be their opponent in Super Bowl 43.
All of the above are pros, and it would be a shocker if any of them made a big deal out of this in the remaining 10 days leading up to the game (they do have more pressing work after all).
On a macro level, their success increases expectations on ALL NFL coaches. These are second-year coaches who followed tough acts - in Tomlin's case a revered leader, and in Whisenhunt's case a franchise that has done virtually nothing since the conclusion of World War II.
Neither got it, and now both are architects of the Arizona Cardinals' rise to NFC champions.
As you know the Steelers, and the man who was selected to replace Cowher, Mike Tomlin, will be their opponent in Super Bowl 43.
All of the above are pros, and it would be a shocker if any of them made a big deal out of this in the remaining 10 days leading up to the game (they do have more pressing work after all).
On a macro level, their success increases expectations on ALL NFL coaches. These are second-year coaches who followed tough acts - in Tomlin's case a revered leader, and in Whisenhunt's case a franchise that has done virtually nothing since the conclusion of World War II.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Super Bowl pits tradition vs. parity
The Arizona Cardinals are evidence that the NFL is getting what it wants - parity.
How many of you had the Redbirds going to the Super Bowl, much less winning the relatively weak NFC West? I didn't.
The Cardinals dis-spelled two popular notions about playoff teams.
First, teams that finish the regular season crawling to the finish line have no shot in the playoffs. Arizona didn't just lose, it was getting blown out, including a loss at Philadelphia on Thanksgiving night.
Second, teams that play wild-card weekend will be too worn out by the time the conference championship game arrives. This theory has been disproven in recent years by the Colts and Steelers, but it still exists in the minds of some. Of course the Eagles also played in the first three rounds of the playoffs as well, and they needed a near miraculous combination of events on Week 17 to reach the postseason.
So these desert upstarts have reached the Big Game, but how? Coaching and a veteran quarterback. The Cardinals were a step ahead of the Eagles most of Sunday's game, and Kurt Warner was unflappable.
The Steelers, on the other hand, reach the Super Bowl for the second time in four years. They were a fashionable pick to go this far, and with good reason. Their defense was outstanding, and they scored just enough to survive a brutal schedule. The AFC Championship game vs. Baltimore was one of the most physically punishing games I can remember seeing. One gets the impression that the playoffs started in Pittsburgh long before the postseason did.
One other thought on what this matchup means. In an offseason in which the coaching carousel turns faster and faster, the pressure on coaches will be higher than ever. Both Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin and Arizona's Ken Whisenhunt are in just their second seasons, giving more ammunition to fans, front offices and owners that win-now is a reality.
How many of you had the Redbirds going to the Super Bowl, much less winning the relatively weak NFC West? I didn't.
The Cardinals dis-spelled two popular notions about playoff teams.
First, teams that finish the regular season crawling to the finish line have no shot in the playoffs. Arizona didn't just lose, it was getting blown out, including a loss at Philadelphia on Thanksgiving night.
Second, teams that play wild-card weekend will be too worn out by the time the conference championship game arrives. This theory has been disproven in recent years by the Colts and Steelers, but it still exists in the minds of some. Of course the Eagles also played in the first three rounds of the playoffs as well, and they needed a near miraculous combination of events on Week 17 to reach the postseason.
So these desert upstarts have reached the Big Game, but how? Coaching and a veteran quarterback. The Cardinals were a step ahead of the Eagles most of Sunday's game, and Kurt Warner was unflappable.
The Steelers, on the other hand, reach the Super Bowl for the second time in four years. They were a fashionable pick to go this far, and with good reason. Their defense was outstanding, and they scored just enough to survive a brutal schedule. The AFC Championship game vs. Baltimore was one of the most physically punishing games I can remember seeing. One gets the impression that the playoffs started in Pittsburgh long before the postseason did.
One other thought on what this matchup means. In an offseason in which the coaching carousel turns faster and faster, the pressure on coaches will be higher than ever. Both Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin and Arizona's Ken Whisenhunt are in just their second seasons, giving more ammunition to fans, front offices and owners that win-now is a reality.
Friday, September 26, 2008
2008 NFL Week 4 preview
What does the firing of a general manager three weeks into a season really accomplish?
Yes, Matt Millen's record as Detroit Lions GM was terrible, both on and off the field. But at this point in the season the scouting process for the 2009 draft is just underway, free agency and contracts aren't really in the picture.
Sure it's a PR move by a team desperate for some positive press, but why wasn't this done in the offseason?
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Washington (2-1) at Dallas (3-0): The Cowboys ran the ball and pressured the quarterback impressively at Green Bay on Sunday night. If the Redskins can't stop the run and protect QB Jason Campbell, they're in for a long day. But if Washington can do both of those things, it has a chance in this rivalry game. DE Jason Taylor's injury comes at a bad time for the Redskins. The pick: Dallas
Green Bay (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1): How well will the Packers bounce back from their loss to Dallas? And can they pressure QB Brian Griese enough to compensate for their decimated secondary (three starters out). Griese threw for more than 400 yards against a much better secondary last week, so it's not hard to predict the route the Bucs will go. The Packers have to run the ball well to have a chance. The pick: Tampa in a high-scoring game.
Baltimore (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-1): The AFC Central is there for the taking for these two teams, both of which have some serious holes. The Ravens have no passing game and the Steelers can't pass block. Pittsburgh will be without RB Willie Parker, which really hurts, and it was dominated by a physical Philadelphia team last week. This week it plays a team coached by a former Eagles assistant. The pick: Baltimore keeps it going in a very low-scoring game.
GAMES OF THE WEAK (and there are plenty):
Cleveland (0-3) at Cincinnati (0-3): Someone has to win. It's mind-boggling that two teams with so much talent on offense are doing so little with it.
Houston (0-2) at Jacksonville (1-2): Expect the Jaguars to start rolling after last week's win at Indianapolis.
Buffalo (3-0) at St. Louis (0-3): A trap game for the Bills? I don't think they can take anything for granted after needing last-minute rallies to win the past few weeks. Rams' lack of offense also surprises me.
Denver (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3): Unless Larry Johnson runs for 300 yards for the Chiefs, this could get ugly in a hurry.
San Diego (1-2) at Oakland (1-2): A sloppy team meets one with that regularly experiences brain lock. Neither has played near its talent level yet.
2008 record: 6-0
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