2008 NFL Week 4 preview

What does the firing of a general manager three weeks into a season really accomplish?

Yes, Matt Millen's record as Detroit Lions GM was terrible, both on and off the field. But at this point in the season the scouting process for the 2009 draft is just underway, free agency and contracts aren't really in the picture.

Sure it's a PR move by a team desperate for some positive press, but why wasn't this done in the offseason?

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Washington (2-1) at Dallas (3-0): The Cowboys ran the ball and pressured the quarterback impressively at Green Bay on Sunday night. If the Redskins can't stop the run and protect QB Jason Campbell, they're in for a long day. But if Washington can do both of those things, it has a chance in this rivalry game. DE Jason Taylor's injury comes at a bad time for the Redskins. The pick: Dallas

Green Bay (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1): How well will the Packers bounce back from their loss to Dallas? And can they pressure QB Brian Griese enough to compensate for their decimated secondary (three starters out). Griese threw for more than 400 yards against a much better secondary last week, so it's not hard to predict the route the Bucs will go. The Packers have to run the ball well to have a chance. The pick: Tampa in a high-scoring game.

Baltimore (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-1): The AFC Central is there for the taking for these two teams, both of which have some serious holes. The Ravens have no passing game and the Steelers can't pass block. Pittsburgh will be without RB Willie Parker, which really hurts, and it was dominated by a physical Philadelphia team last week. This week it plays a team coached by a former Eagles assistant. The pick: Baltimore keeps it going in a very low-scoring game.

GAMES OF THE WEAK (and there are plenty):

Cleveland (0-3) at Cincinnati (0-3): Someone has to win. It's mind-boggling that two teams with so much talent on offense are doing so little with it.

Houston (0-2) at Jacksonville (1-2): Expect the Jaguars to start rolling after last week's win at Indianapolis.

Buffalo (3-0) at St. Louis (0-3): A trap game for the Bills? I don't think they can take anything for granted after needing last-minute rallies to win the past few weeks. Rams' lack of offense also surprises me.

Denver (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3): Unless Larry Johnson runs for 300 yards for the Chiefs, this could get ugly in a hurry.

San Diego (1-2) at Oakland (1-2): A sloppy team meets one with that regularly experiences brain lock. Neither has played near its talent level yet.

2008 record: 6-0

NFL 2008: Week 3 Rewind

How much stock should we put into fast and slow starts by certain teams after just three weeks? There certainly are no lack of suprises thus far.

The Elite (or at least the leaders)
There is no question in my mind now that the NFC East is by far the best division in football. Overall record: 10-2. Dallas, Philadelphia and the Giants are the three best teams in the NFC, and Washington isn't too far behind. ... The AFC has what could mildly be termed as surprise teams leading each Division (Denver, Tennessee, Baltimore and Buffalo). Keep in mind, however, Tennessee was a playoff team in 2007 and Buffalo was the team they beat out. Denver apparently has returned to its AFL roots and decided to try to outscore each opponent, while Baltimore is riding its defense to its strong start.

Home curse
I wonder if losses to Chicago and Jacksonville in the first two games there have dampened the enthusiasm for the Colts' new stadium.

O no
Can there be a more disappointed state of NFL fans than those in Ohio, where Cleveland and Cincinnati are both 0-3? The offenses of both clubs have inexplicably gone MIA. The good news is one of them should get a victory Sunday. They meet in Cincinnati.

State of Misery
It's tough to say they're more disappointed in Missouri, where expectations couldn't have been real high for Kansas City and St. Louis ... but this is bordering on ridiculous. The Chiefs and Rams might be the two worst teams in the NFL. The Rams have the NFL's worst defense and second-worst offense (how does that happen with RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc Bulger and WR Torry Holt?) and have been blown out three weeks in a row. And the rebuilding Chiefs have the third-worst offense. At least their young defense is keeping them in some games.

Good byes
Bye weeks start this week with six teams taking a break. The update on each follows.
Indianapolis - The Colts need a week off to heal an early season rash of injuries, particularly on the offensive line. A 1-2 start definitely was not part of the plan, and it could easily be 0-3.
Miami - The Dolphins are coming off a thrashing of the Patriots and have to feel better about themselves after starting with two duds. Still, there is a ways to go in Miami.
New England - The Patriots aren't going to be the offensive juggernaut they were last season, but who knew the defense would be such a problem? Still, I expect them to iron things out during their down time.
Seattle - I don't think Coach Mike Holmgren had planned on a 1-2 start, but then when you have six receivers injured, it's tough to win. More alarming should be the defense's disappearing act.
NY Giants - I can't wait until they play the Eagles and the Cowboys. The champs are playing like it.
Detroit - Good thing the Rams are in the NFC or I would write the Lions are the worst team in the conference. They have overpaid for older free agents so their defense isn't any better, and their offense - particularly QB Jon Kitna - continues to make mistake after mistake to take them out of games.

NFL 2008: Week 2 forecast

What are we to make of the AFC? If the pundits are to be believed, all of the favorites - San Diego, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and even New England - are doomed.

Not so fast.

Yes, the Patriots have lost QB Tom Brady for the season, but they have the rest of a championship-caliber team in place. Yes, Chargers Pro Bowl LB Shawn Merriman decided to have knee surgery and will miss the season. Yes, the offensive lines of the Colts and Jaguars are battered, with Jacksonville losing both of its starting guard for the season.

But as we used to say in the newspaper business as deadline approached: "It's early."

I would hesitate to rule any of those four teams out.

ROOKIE DAY
Can it get much better in Atlanta and Baltimore? Not only did rookie QBs Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco win their debuts, but they did so under the guidance of first-year coaches Mike Smith and John Harbaugh. As bad as things were for both franchises last season (awful in Atlanta and disappointing in Baltimore), Week 1 offered hope.

GAMES OF THE WEEK
New England (1-0) at N.Y. Jets (1-0): The Jets are suddenly a fashionable pick to win the AFC East behind QB Brett Favre and an improved pass rush. Not so fast. If there is one team Coach Bill Belichick will ahve the Patriots up for, it is the Jets, who started the Spygate controversy last season. The pick: Patriots.

Chicago (1-0) at Carolina (1-0): Two teams who scored road upsets in Week 1 square off in Charlotte. The Bears road rookie RB Matt Forte's rushing and a stout defense to a surprisingly easy victory over the Colts. QB Jake Delhomme, meanwhile, might have gotten a bionic arm when he underwent season-ending elbow surgery last season. Delhomme led the Panthers to a stunning upset of the Chargers without suspended WR Steve Smith. This will be a physical game, but Delhomme again will be the difference. The pick: Panthers.

Philadelphia (1-0) at Dallas (1-0): Two NFC East teams coming off blowout victories square off in Big D. The Cowboys' rout of the Browns was more impressive than the Eagles' walkover against the Rams. QB Donovan McNabb appears to be back at a Pro Bowl level, and the Eagles have upgraded their team speed. The Eagles' secondary matches up well with the Cowboys' passing game, so if they can slow RB Marion Barber, who has bruised ribs, I like the visitors. The pick: Eagles.

GAMES OF THE WEAK:
N.Y. Giants (1-0) at St. Louis (0-1): The Giants played like the champs in their opening victory against Washington. The Rams played like they're going to draft first overall again in getting drilled by the Eagles.

Oakland (0-1) at Kansas City (0-1): Someone has to win, right? The Chiefs played the Patriots tougher than many expected last week, but Brady's injury had something to do with that. The Raiders again rolled over for the Broncos.

PICK RECORDS
Last week: 3-0
Season: 3-0

NFL 2008: Week 1 forecast

What to look for in Week 1 of the NFL season? High scores.

Offenses typically have the element of surprise the first 2-3 weeks of the season. Once defenses get current film, scoring levels off. I expect this season to be no exception, particularly with the amount of players who sat out significant portions of the preseason.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Dallas at Cleveland: Are the Browns ready for national TV? A fashionable pick to advance into the playoffs, the Browns begin a rough schedule with a stern test. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have fortified their lineup with LB Zach Thomas and CB Adam Jones in addition to rookie RB Felix Jones in order to make a Super Bowl run. The key matchup will be can the Browns' upgraded defensive line stop RB Marion Barber and pressure QB Tony Romo. If so, this will be interesting. If not, Dallas will win going away. The pick: Cowboys win a tough one on the road.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Last year's NFC South champion visits the favorite to win it this season. The Saints, who were briefly displaced by Hurricane Gustav, should have added incentive to not repeat 2007's 0-4 start. It's easy to discount the Bucs, who are not a flashy team, but this will be stiff test for the Saints, who rate a big edge in offensive firepower. The pick: the Saints.

NY Jets at Miami: The Jets' old QB - Chad Pennington - faces their new one - Brett Favre (that still doesn't sound right). New York acted in free agency like a team that expects play deep into the playoffs (and that was before obtaining Favre last month). The Dolphins acted like a team starting over. Miami will be better this season, but not on this day. The pick: The Jets.

GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
Minnesota at Green Bay: The first half of the Monday doubleheader features someone other than Favre starting at quarterback for the Packers for the first time since September 1992. That would be Aaron Rodgers, whom you might have read about this summer. Expect the Vikings to bring pressure from all angles because the Packers feature an elite receiving core.

Houston at Pittsburgh: The Texans believe they're close to being a playoff team. The Steelers perennially are one. This could be a meaningful tie-breaker game at season's end in the tight AFC.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Detroit at Atlanta: These will be two of the worst teams in the NFL. Mark it down.

Kansas City at New England: The Chiefs are rebuilding. The Patriots are mad ... and extremely talented. Not a good combination for KC.

NFL 2008: NFC predictions

This is the second part of my regular-season predictions for the 2008 NFL season. We'll revisit these at the season's end.

NFC East
Overview: As if 13 Pro Bowl players wasn't enough, the Cowboys added two more in CB Adam Jones and LB Zach Thomas in the offseason, still Dallas has to win postseason games (plural). Losing 25 sacks due to retirement and injury won't help the Giants' defense, but don't sell the champs short, they could win this division. The Eagles addressed their needs in free agency and the draft, though another target for Donovan McNabb would have really helped. The Redskins could be very fun to watch but age is a factor on both lines.
1. Dallas: QB Tony Romo and Coach Wade Phillips need to break through in the postseason. RB Felix Jones was a great draft pick, but Dallas could use another quality receiver opposite Terrell Owens. There is no question the Cowboys are loaded at every other position.
2. N.Y. Giants: The G-men took a lot of hits on defense, so players such as DEs Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka and a new trio of safeties has to come up big. QB Eli Manning needs WRs Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith to stay healthy, and the bruising running game to pick up where it left off.
3. Philadelphia: The Eagles got younger and faster on defense, so expect defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to release the hounds. QB Donovan McNabb has a lot left in the tank, and he will prove it despite a dearth of receiving options.
4. Washington: A lot of questions in the capital. How will the players adapt to new coach Jim Zorn's system? Can the lines stay healthy? Is QB Jason Campbell fully recovered? Put Washington in any other division in this conference it likely would finish at least second, that's how strong the East is.

NFC North
Overview: This is a bizarre division. It's possible the worst team (Detroit) might have the best quarterback (Jon Kitna). Defense will be the rule of the day as Minnesota, Green Bay and Chicago all could be among the top 10 in the league. The Packers might regret trading Brett Favre and not having an experienced backup if Aaron Rodgers goes down to injury. The Bears need to avoid injuries that decimated their defense last season and get something, anything from their offense. The Lions could be better and have a worse record than last season.
1. Minnesota: You know the story. The Vikings led the league in rushing and rushing defense, but had the worst pass defense and fourth-worst passing game. DE Jared Allen and S Madieu Williams, when he heals, should help the former at least a little. The latter depends on whether QB Tavaris Jackson can limit his errors and make more plays, particularly to high-priced free-agent WR Bernard Berrian, who can stretch defenses but also drops a lot of balls.
2. Green Bay: Last season, the Packers had the second-best passing game. Given the depth and talent of their receiving core, it could be just as good ... if they had a quarterback with more than zero NFL starts. I think Rodgers will do reasonably well, but Brett Favre won games last season for the Packers, who need a full season of Ryan Grant's second-half of 2007 production.
3. Chicago: It's fashionable to blame the lack of production from former starting QB Rex Grossman for the Bears' offensive woes, but the reality was they were 30th in rushing. So rookie Matt Forte is the key for them. Given the secondary was without two starters nearly all season, expect the pass defense to improve.
4. Detroit: The Lions again turned over a significant portion of their roster, and many of the new faces on defense played for coach Rod Marinelli in Tampa Bay. That would have been great three or four years ago. The passing game should be very good if Kitna gets time to throw, but the combination of unproven running backs and a below-average line isn't a good combination.

NFC South
Overview: While the Saints say last season, which featured an 0-4 start after reaching the NFC title game in 2006, was an aberration, their offseason actions say otherwise. They obtained at least six new starters through trades, free agency and the draft. Say what you will about Jon Gruden winning with Tony Dungy's players, but that's no longer accurate. He and Bruce Allen are slowly rebuilding the Bucs from the trenches out. The Panthers' win totals for the past three seasons: 11-8-7. Notice a trend? Things have nowhere to go but up for the Falcons.
1. New Orleans: If RBs Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister are healthy, the Saints are loaded on offense. Drafting DT Sedrick Ellis and adding LBs Jonathon Vilma and Dan Morgan helps the defense. If the secondary is average, the Saints will win a lot more than they lose.
2. Tampa Bay: The Bucs might have the best young offensive line in the game, and their defensive line has the potential to be just as good. The back seven on defense also has young playmakers in LB Barrett Ruud and S Jermaine Phillips and Tanard Jackson. The cautious, ball-control approach on offense worked well last season. Think Ravens East, as long as the offense doesn't screw things up for the defense, the Bucs will be fine.
3. Carolina: As ridiculous as it would have sounded a few years ago, this is probably a make-or-break year for Coach John Fox and several players, DE Julius Peppers to name one. Carolina's offense was predictably sunk when QB Jake Delhomme blew out his throwing elbow, but the defense's falloff, particularly up front, was baffling. Rookie T Jef Otah and RB Jonathon Stewart will have to play prominent roles.
4. Atlanta: The Falcons make no bones about it, they're starting from scratch with a new coach, QB, RB and a few new OL parts. Most of their veteran players were let go in the offseason, and given neither offense nor defense were in the top two-thirds of the NFL, that probably wasn't a bad idea.

NFC West
Overview: The Seahawks are one of the more solid teams in the conference, particularly on defense, they have the division's best quarterback and coach. The Cardinals are a fashionable breakout pick, but I don't see it. If the 49ers aren't better - a lot better - expect another house cleaning by the Bay. The Rams have a lot of holes on defense and on the offensive line, which overshadows a decent group of skill players.
1. Seattle: Say this for the Seahawks, they have been consistently good under Holmgren, making the playoffs the past five seasons. This year should be no different as Seattle has good balance on both sides of the ball. If the running back by committee of Julius Jones, Maurice Morris and TJ Duckett is effective, it will offset injuries to WRs Bobby Engram and Deion Branch. The defense has stars and depth at all three position groups.
2. Arizona: Turnovers and penalties undermined the Cardinals again and again last season. The offense is full of playmakers and the line is improved. The defense has to improve against the pass (it was 28th), and it has the potential to do so with the return of S Adrian Wilson (heel injury), the move of Antrell Rolle to safety and the drafting of CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
3. San Francisco: It doesn't say a lot for former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith that journeyman JT O'Sullivan beat him out in Mike Martz's QB-friendly offense. The NFL's worst offense in 2007, the 49ers have handed the keys to Martz and brought one of his most reliable players in WR Isaac Bruce. RB Frank Gore must stay healthy. The defense gives up a lot of yards, but not as many points as one would assume. It has the personnel to be a lot better.
4. St. Louis: The Rams can't possibly have as many injuries as they had last season, can they? The offense is in good hands with QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson and WR Torry Holt. The defense, however, needs a massive upgrade, and aside from rookie DE Chris Long, didn't get it. Turnovers also were a huge problem.

Playoff teams: Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans, Seattle, N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia or Green Bay