NFL 2007 rewind

Each NFL season I like to take Week 17 to look back at what the prognosticators, including yours truly, had to say before the season. To review my division-by-division predictions, visit the bottom of the September 2007 archive page.

Legend:
SI = Sports Illustrated
PFW = Pro Football Weekly
TSN = The Sporting News
Me = Yours truly

AFC East

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Patriots Pats Pats Pats
2 Jets Jets Jets Jets
3 Bills Bills Bills Bills
4 Dolphins Fins Fins Fins

Comment: No one saw a potential 16-0 Patriots season, and no one foresaw the Jets’ and Dolphins’ near-complete meltdowns.
From my fingers: “If QB JP Losman trends upward again, the Bills may surprise.” I was half right. Rookie QB Trent Edwards helped the Bills get on track.

AFC North

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Bengals Ravens Bengals Ravens
2 Ravens Bengals Ravens Bengals
3 Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
4 Browns Browns Browns Browns

Comment: No one even came close on this division. The Steelers were a mild surprise and the Browns were a huge one. As disappointing as the Bengals were, the Ravens’ fall from 13-3 to 4-11 is stunning.
From my fingers: “If anyone can get the football to TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards, (the Browns) might be on to something.” But I completely blew this: “I see more questions than answers with (the Steelers).”

AFC South

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Colts Colts Colts Colts
2 Titans Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
3 Jaguars Titans Titans Texans
4 Texans Texans Texans Titans

Comment: PFW and TSN nailed it. I liked Houston to be even more improved than it was, and I figured Tennessee could not overcome all of its offseason losses.
From my fingers: “As much as (Vince Young) runs with the ball, it's hard to imagine he won't get injured at some point, which would make the Titans one of the league's worst teams.” Well, they survived his injuries to contend for a playoff spot and prove me wrong.

AFC West

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
2 Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos
3 Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
4 Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders

Comment: The order was right, but everyone thought the Broncos would be a playoff team. Oops.
From my fingers: “If QB Jay Cutler improves and RB Travis Henry gets healthy, (Denver’s) offense will be high-powered. Stopping the run will be the barometer of the defense, perhaps ultimately the team's success.”

My playoff picks: New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, Denver, New York.
Actual: New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Jacksonville and either Cleveland or Tennessee.

NFC East

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Eagles Eagles Cowboys Cowboys
2 Cowboys Cowboys Eagles Eagles
3 Giants Redskins Giants Redskins
4 Redskins Giants Redskins Giants

Comment: Allow me to gloat about the Cowboys and Redskins, but everyone overrated the Eagles and underrated the Giants.
From my fingers: “A (Giants) team that appears unsettled under Coach Tom Coghlin might come apart at the seems by midseason.” Actually, the Giants were coming together and playing very well at that point.

NFC North

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Bears Bears Bears Bears
2 Packers Packers Packers Packers
3 Vikings Lions Vikings Vikings
4 Lions Vikings Lions Lions

Comment: No one saw the Packers’ rise to 12-3 and the Bears’ fall. The Vikings also rank as a surprise team.
From my fingers: “The Pack has no one, literally, to run the ball, and that will be their undoing. Had they kept Ahman Green or acquired a suitable replacement, they'd be a playoff team.” Meet Ryan Grant everyone.

NFC South

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Saints Saints Saints Saints
2 Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers
3 Bucs Bucs Falcons Bucs
4 Falcons Falcons Bucs Falcons

Comment: This ranks with the AFC North as the surprise division. No one saw the Bucs’ comeback. The Saints probably weren’t as good as they appeared in 2006, nor as bad as they appeared early in 2007. TSN really blew this one – the Bucs last?
From my fingers: “The Panthers get (the No. 2) spot by default because I think the teams below them are horrible. Two years ago, Carolina looked like a budding dynasty, but now it appears to have a lot of holes.” Guess the Bucs weren’t so horrible.

NFC West

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Seahawks Seahawks 49ers Seahawks
2 Rams 49ers Seahawks 49ers
3 49ers Rams Rams Rams
4 Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals

Comment: The injury bug bit the Rams hard, but TSN again takes it on the chin here. Based upon this, the Cardinals have to rank as a surprise team.
From my fingers: “A fashionable pick as a division winner, the 49ers need three things to happen for that to become a reality: Alex Smith must continue to progress at QB (and do so despite his third coordinator in three seasons), RB Frank Gore must stay healthy (he was nicked in preseason and has a lengthy college injury history), and the Niners need some receivers to emerge.” Smith and Gore were hurt, and Smith is beginning to look like a bust.

My playoff teams: Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco
Actual: Dallas, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay, New York and either Washington, Minnesota or New Orleans.

NFL Week 16 preview

Who says there are no good matchups left this season?

Washington (7-7) at Minnesota (8-6) has NFC wild-card implications and is an elimination game for the Redskins.

The New York Giants (9-5) have to travel to Buffalo (7-7), where once-paralyzed Kevin Everrett is expected to be honored. A Giants loss and wins by New Orleans and Minnesota, and New York would face a must-win vs. the Patriots next Sunday.

Speaking of, the 14-0 Pats host the 1-13 Dolphins. So many story lines here. Undefeated season on the line against the last franchise to accomplish the feat. The presence of former New England coach and Bill Belichick mentor, Bill Parcells, in the Dolphins' front office. Then there is the weather factor.

The battle for NFC playoff positioning continues as well. Dallas has to bounce back on the road at Carolina and retain home-field advantage, while Green Bay looks to exact revenge on one of two teams - Chicago - that defeated it this season.

Seattle, Tampa Bay and San Diego are jockeying for the No. 3 spot in their respective conferences. Jacksonville, Cleveland and Tennessee are battling for AFC wild-card slots.

Upset specials: I see three this week - I think Washington will beat Minnesota to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Vikings were not overly impressive in beating the Bears and have a shorter week. ... I think Houston will surprise Indianapolis, which will rest a lot of players as its locked into the AFC's No. 2 playoff spot. ... And San Francisco will upset visiting Tampa Bay.

Season record on upset picks: 7-8 and in quite a slump.

An Extra Helping of Tuna

Well, this didn't take very long.

Bill Parcells was masterful in playing the Dolphins against the Falcons this week, ultimately gaining more money and power in the process to run the entire Dolphins football operation less than one year than leaving his job as Cowboys coach.

This isn't the first time the Tuna has had a fishing expedition such as this. His record indicates two things - he won't stay long in Miami (lasted no more than four years in his past three NFL jobs), but the Dolphins will be in far better shape when he departs than when he arrived (all three teams - Patriots, Jets and Cowboys became playoff teams).

What that in mind, I'd like to take a look at the status of the coaches in the NFL. I expect more offseason turnover in the AFC than the NFC this year:

AFC
Baltimore - Yes, Brian Billick has won a Super Bowl, but that was six seasons ago, and the Ravens have lost eight in a row after a 4-10 start. The team is aging at several key positions and there are signs of dissension. This will be the second losing season in three years, wrapped around a 13-3 campaign that ended with a divisional-round playoff loss. It might be time for a change as the Ravens rebuild.
Buffalo - The Bills have overcome numerous injuries and free-agent losses to post a 7-7 record. Dick Jauron has done an excellent job.
Cincinnati - The Bengals have gone from 11 wins to eight to five in the past three seasons. Another team seemingly in disarray, Coach Marvin Lewis might pay.
Cleveland - Romeo Crennel has the Browns at 9-5 and in serious contention for a playoff spot. One more victory, and Cleveland will equal its total from the past two seasons.
Denver - Has the master lost his touch? After not winning fewer than nine games in the past five seasons, Mike Shanahan's Broncos have to win out just to hit seven Ws. More disturbing, they've gone from 13 to 9 to 5 in the win category in spite of annual retooling.
Houston - Year 2 of the Gary Kubiak era has gone well, showing improvement in wins (6 to 7 with two games left) and competitiveness. Keeping the skill position players healthy on offense should lead to further improvement.
Indianapolis - Tony Dungy has the Colts at 12-2 despite numerous injuries, free-agent losses and the Super Bowl champion's target.
Jacksonville - The Jags have bounced back under Jack Del Rio and could make a lot of noise in the playoffs as a wild-card. This team plays to its strengths (running, defense) as well as any. Plus, making the call to release QB Byron Leftwich and go with David Garrard was brilliant, albeit tough.
Kansas City - The Chiefs lost RB Larry Johnson to injury and struggled at QB, but four wins after making the playoffs last season and winning 19 games the past two seasons combined? I think Herm Edwards will get a third season, but it's debatable.
Miami - Cam Cameron has overseen a 1-13 disaster. With Parcells' entrance, I foresee a massive house cleaning.
New England - Bill Belichick can stay as long as he likes, particularly if the Pats go 19-0.
New York - In one season Eric Mangini has gone from "Man-genius" to "Oh Man!" as the Jets have fallen from 10-6 to 3-11. Still, it would be a mild surprise if he was shown the door.
Oakland - It's tough to tell if anything has improved under first-year coach Lane Kiffin. It's not thee 2-14 disaster of 2006, but I think the plan was to win more than four games and establish some semblance of an ascent. Frankly, I would not be shocked if the Raiders switched coaches again. The problem is their talent level is not as deep as they might have thought.
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin was an excellent hire, and the Steelers are heading back to the playoffs with a bit more balance on offense and their trademark defense.
San Diego - After a 1-3 start, the Chargers have hit their stride under Norv Turner, who took a lot of heat early. If the Bolts are healthy, they have the talent to make noise in the playoffs.
Tennessee - Year-in, year-out, the Titans play hard. They'll likely improve on last season's eight wins with middle-of-the-pack talent and could reach the playoffs. Jeff Fisher has reinforced to me that he's one of the best in the business.


NFC
Arizona - Racked by injuries to some of their best players (Matt Leinart, Adrian Wilson, Eric Green and Anquan Boldin), the Cardinals have been much more competitive under first-year coach Ken Whisenhunt.
Atlanta - It just keeps getting worse here. The next coach will have his work cut out for him.
Carolina - The Panthers need to win their final two games to match last season's 8-8 record. They're on their fourth QB of the season, but their defense has been more hit and miss than in the past. Still, John Fox seems safe.
Chicago - Lovie Smith has done a good job with a team that has shown a lot of vulnerabilities due to injuries, a shaky QB situation and some key free-agent losses (RB Thomas Jones and several D linemen).
Dallas - If the Cowboys don't at least reach the Super Bowl or other teams try to poach offensive coordinator to be their head coach, I could see owner Jerry Jones pulling the plug on Wade Phillips and naming Garrett coach.
Detroit - The Lions are improving under Rod Marinelli, but the losing culture that has been so prevalent still needs some overhauling. A 6-2 start has turned into 6-8.
Green Bay - The youngest team in the league has won 16 of its past 18 games since starting 4-8 under Mike McCarthy. Brett Favre looks better, the ground game is coming around and the defense and special teams are special.
Minnesota - Brad Childress has remained patient, stuck with his plan and it's paying off. Minnesota has won five in a row to pull into playoff contention and already has one more win than last season.
New Orleans - The reality is the Saints weren't as good as last season's NFC Championship Game appearance indicated and not as bas as their 0-4 start this season. Sean Payton has adjusted well in the face of injuries to his running backs.
New York - The Giants are picking a bad time of the season to get injured and play poorer. Anything less than a playoff spot and it's fairly certain Tom Coghlin is gone. Even if the G-men reach the playoffs and get smoked in the wild-card round he might be gone.
Philadelphia - Another team that has been hammered by injuries and QB controversies, the Eagles would be crazy to let Andy Reid or QB Donovan McNabb go in the offeseason.
St. Louis - The Rams have been hammered by injuries, too, but the amount of penalties and other mistakes they make indicate some coaching issues. They're going to finish with at least four fewer victories than last season's 8-8 squad, and most of their star players aside from Steven Jackson are hitting the age when a decline is possible. I don't like Scott Linehan's chances.
San Francisco - A lot of the momentum gained from last season's seven victories has been lost, again due in part to injuries at QB and RB. I don't know if this team is as bad as four wins, but it's certainly not a playoff team. Mike Nolan isn't going anywhere, but the 49ers have to improve - a lot - on offense to compete.
Seattle - The Seahawks again won the West, and they have the talent to win a few playoff games and maybe reach the Super Bowl. Mike Holmgren continues to do a very good job and not get a lot of recognition for it.
Tampa Bay - Like him or hate him, Jon Gruden has managed rebuild on the fly and win the South. The South is one of the worst divisions in football, but Tampa has gone from four wins to nine and could finish with 11.
Washington - Joe Gibbs' place is secure, but one wonders how much more he'll put up with. The Sean Taylor slaying rocked the team and the league. The past few editions of the Redskins have been up and down, not a description typically used with past Gibbs teams.

Cleaning up Week 15 in the NFL

Refreshing play of the week: Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook stopping at the Dallas 1-yard line on a late run to ensure the Eagles could run out the clock and upset the Cowboys, rather than scoring and giving Dallas a slim chance of rallying.

Warrior of the week: Say what you will about the Dolphins this season, but Miami's Jason Taylor willed his team to win its first game. Taylor was all over the field, blocking a field goal, getting two sacks and playing every play as if it was his last during the Dolphins' overtime victory against the Ravens.

Stats of the week: Two of the top four scorers among kickers are rookies - Green Bay's Mason Crosby (first with 130 points) and Dallas' Nick Folk (fourth, 117). ... 11 running backs have topped 1,000 yards rushing thus far, and another 10 are 201 yards or fewer away from the milestone with two weeks to play. Last season, 23 backs topped a grand. ... 14 receivers have surpassed 1,000 yards, and nine more are 100 yards or fewer closer. In 2006, 19 players reached that plateau. Does anyone else see a trend here this season?

Fantasy fodder: Most fantasy football participants load up on running backs early in their drafts. That strategy was not as sound this season as in seasons past. Of the top 11 scorers among non-kickers, five are wide receivers, including Nos. 1, 4 and 5 (Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards).

Pro Bowl picks

The annual announcement of Pro Bowl selections serves as a good reminder of the role politics plays in that process.

Fan voting is equally weighted with coaches'and players' voting. So while the NFL likes to play up the fact that fans have a say in the process, the reality is coaches and peers have twice as much say.

Some interesting stats' from Tuesday's rosters for the Feb. 10 game:

The Dallas Cowboys, who have the NFL's second-best record (12-2) had 11 players selected. The 14-0 New England Patriots and the AFC West San Diego Chargers (9-5) had eight apiece.

However, the Indianapolis Colts (12-2), had just five players picked, while the Green Bay Packers, also 12-2, had four selections.

Contrast that with the Minnesota Vikings, who had seven players picked despite an 8-6 record and a questionable shot at making the playoffs.

At the other end of the scale, neither the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Bucs nor the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4), the wild-card team no one wants to face, had anyone selected.

Another oddity: the Chicago Bears, last in the NFC North, had four players picked.

Washington Redskins safety Sean Taylor, who died in late November after being shot during a robbery attempt at his Miami-area house, was voted to start at safety for the NFC. Taylor led the NFC in interceptions at the time of his death.

NFL Week 15

The Christmas rush and a final project for school have hit this week, so it's an abbreviated (and nearly tardy) NFL preview. Look for more frequent postings this week.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Jaguars (9-4) at Steelers (9-4): Two tough, physical teams. Jacksonville will be without DT Marcus Stroud and MLB Mike Peterson, so look for Pittsburgh to run wild at home.

Bills (7-6) at Browns (7-6): Raise your hand if you saw this coming at the start of the season. This amounts to an elimination game for a wild-card spot in the AFC. The Browns' offense is impressive, but they'll have to figure out a way to contain Buffalo's rookie-led running attach.


GAMES OF THE WEAK:
Too many to mention. At one point this week, there were 10 games of points spreads of seven or more points. The league doesn't have parity, it has a lot of terrible teams this season.


UPSET OF THE WEEK:
Titans (7-6) at Chiefs (4-9): Kansas City can't keep losing at home, can it? Tennessee's injuries scare me, and I think the Chiefs are going to pound out a conservative victory and deal the Titans' playoff hopes a blow.

Season record on upset picks: 7-7

NFL Week 14 preview

It appears that it will take nine victories to have a shot at an NFC wild-card berth, and most likely 10 to make it in the AFC.

With four games remaining for all but Chicago and Washington (who played Thursday night), here is a glance at the playoff pictures in each conference.

NFC
Likely Division Winners (and an automatic playoff berth):
East - Dallas needs one win or one Giants loss. The Cowboys (11-1) have a strong inside track at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs after defeating Green Bay last week.
North - Green Bay needs a win or a tie and a Detroit loss or tie to clinch it. The Packers (10-2) can't get careless because Seattle (8-4) and Tampa Bay (8-4) are still two games back in the race for first-round bye.
South - Tampa Bay's victory over the Saints has it in the driver's seat. A win and combination of losses by the Saints and Panthers puts the Bucs in.
West - Seattle will win another weak division with a victory.

NFC wild-card race
8-4 - N.Y. Giants would have to completely implode to not make it. One victory and a combination of other teams' losses puts them in the postseason.
6-6 - Arizona Detroit, Minnesota ... The Cardinals are really banged up. Detroit has lost four in a row and has to face Dallas, San Diego, Kansas City and Green Bay still. ... Minnesota has come on, Adrian Peterson is seemingly healthy and all four of their remaining games are winnable. Vikings are the best bet.
6-7 - Washington. All the Redskins have to do is win at New York, at Minnesota and close the season by beating Dallas (which might not have much to play for in Week 17) at home. A very, very tall order.
5-7 - Carolina, New Orleans, Philadelphia. I'm not saying it couldn't happen for any of these teams, but the odds seem very long given the teams in the conference they've lost to.
Seasons done
Atlanta (3-9), Chicago (5-8), San Francisco (3-9), St. Louis (3-9)

AFC

Likely Division Winners
East - New England (12-0) has clinched it and barring three losses in four games will have home-field advantage.
South - Indianapolis (10-2) has a huge edge for the division title after its season sweep of Jacksonville. It must beware of Pittsburgh in the race for a first-round bye.
North - Pittsburgh (9-3) needs a victory or a Browns loss to lock it up.
West - San Diego (7-5) needs one victory and one Denver loss to clinch it, which is remarkable after how poorly the Chargers started.
Wild-card race
8-4 - Jacksonville - A very solid team with three very winnable games in their final four.
7-5 - Cleveland, Tennessee. This incarnation of the Browns has played poorly in December, but their schedule (Jets, Bills, Bengals and 49ers) isn't particularly imposing. The Titans not only have San Diego this Sunday and a visit to Kansas City next week, but close with a visit to Indianapolis, which could be playing for a bye. Having said that, the Titans have a better defense, and I like those sorts of teams when the weather turns bad.
6-6 - Buffalo. If either 7-5 team implodes, this is the team to watch for. After Miami, they visit Cleveland, host the Giants and visit Philadelphia. If they win the next two, they'll hold a tie-breaker over the Browns and might catch the banged-up Giants in a meaningless game for playoff position.
Seasons done
Miami (0-12), NY Jets (3-9), Oakland (4-8), Baltimore (4-8), Cincinnati (4-8), Houston (5-7), Denver (5-7)

GAME OF THE WEEK:
Pittsburgh (9-3) at New England (12-0): The obvious choice. Most experts predict this is the week the Patriots could lose after their less-than-stellar performances in Weeks 12-13. The big factor from my point of view will be the weather. If it's bad, the Steelers could pull it off. Pittsburgh certain fits the template for a team that could knock the Pats off their perch. I question if the Steelers can score enough to keep up, however.

GAME OF THE WEAK:
St. Louis (3-9) at Cincinnati (4-8): Injuries ruined the Rams' season, and few teams have been as disappointing as the Bengals (Chicago, New Orleans and Baltimore come to mind, however). It could be a fun game to watch given the explosive potential of the respective offenses.

Upset Special:
New York Jets (3-9) over Cleveland (7-5). I think the Jets' defense can stop or at least slow the Browns' attack, and I think the Jets will run at will on the Browns. The tipping point: the Jets are creating more turnovers of late, and the Browns have had a penchant for a lot of giveaways.

Upset Special Season Record: 7-6

NFL rewind

Thanks to a friend's generosity, I was able to watch every exciting play from every NFL game on Sunday. Or at least it seemed that way.

I was introduced to NFL Sunday Ticket's Red Zone Channel which updates every game in progress continuously. Much has been made of the eight-game "mix" that Sunday Ticket offers, but RZC is a far, far superior product because you get every highlight as it happens or shortly thereafter for hour upon hour. It's a beautiful thing. ...

What was Saints coach Sean Peyton thinking, calling a double-reverse late in the eventual loss to the Bucs? New Orleans held a 23-20 lead late in the fourth quarter, but Reggie Bush's fumbled exchange gave Tampa Bay the ball and eventually the game. The Bucs, by the way, are for real. They're physical, and Coach Jon Gruden game-planned masterfully for QB Luke McCown, who subbed for the ailing Jeff Garcia. ... The Saints' season is probably done. ...

What was Redskins coach Joe Gibbs thinking? His second time-out call to ice Bills kicker Rian Lindell with seconds left resulted in an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that all but ensured Buffalo would get the winning points on Lindell's field-goal attempt. Gibbs is a Hall of Famer, and his place in the game is secure, but this is the latest game management blunder in a season full of them. Yes, Washington has melted down in the second half numerous times this season, but many of its miscues are inexcusable, particularly for someone with Gibbs' resume. ...

It's time for the NFL, the richest U.S. sports league, to hire full-time officials. Not only are the officials missing calls, but even with instant replay, it certainly seems as if many are going uncorrected. Case in point, Cleveland's Hail Mary pass to Kellen Winslow on Sunday. After a fantastic catch on the final play, Winslow was forced out of the end zone yet that wasn't called, costing the Browns the game. Perhaps it's the stress of working during the week, then working all weekend, that's getting to the officials. Whatever the reason, it's a shame the officiating is sinking in a league with abundant resources to do something about it. ...

If you turn the ball over, you will lose. Turnovers again derailed the Eagles, they put the Browns down two scores early, the Packers down three scores early, they sank the Broncos' comeback hopes, and they left the 49ers with no chance to win.

College football quick kicks

Several things jumped out at me in the college football world during the past several days:

Has there ever been a worse college head coach than Bill Callahan? He consistently recruited top-10 classes at Nebraska, yet the Huskers' defense, once their calling card, was among the nation's worst. His pro-style offense never caught on, and its debatable the Huskers ever had the correct mix of personnel. Nebraska endured it's worst losing streak since the early 60s and absorbed beatings by Kansas, Missouri, Colorado and Oklahoma State that were virtually unparalleled in school history. But why stop there, the Oakland Raiders have been a shambles since Callahan had his hands on them. That's quite a resume - destroying one of college's most tradition-rich programs on the heels of sending one of the NFL's proudest and winningest franchises into a tailspin it's yet to recover from. ...

Hiring Bo Pelini, a former Huskers assistant and defensive expert, is a step in the right direction, but one wonders how long it will take him to un-do all the messes Callahan created, including alienating in-state prospects. ...

Frankly I don't know what BCS stands for anymore, but if you remove the "C" you're probably in the right zip code. If ever there was a season crying for a playoff (say eight teams), this is it. It doesn't matter which team, LSU or Ohio State, wins the "national championship" game, does anyone really know if those are the two best teams. The NCAA argues against a playoff by saying they're concerned about athletes playing more games. This from an organization that has signed off on the season expanding from 11 games to 12 or 13 in some cases. Simple solution guys: Cut the regular season to 11 games. Hold playoffs the final two Saturdays in December and the first Saturday night in January - college students are on break then anyway so the class time is a non-issue. Keep the traditional bowl games and restore conference affiliations, just put the top eight teams into a playoff aligned with seven "BCS" bowls. ...

UCLA's Karl Dorrell, fired as coach Monday, got a raw deal. Bob Toledo left the Bruins a mess on and off the field. Dorrell cleaned up the latter, guided UCLA to five consecutive bowl games and from all accounts had changed the culture around the program. He even managed to beat USC last season and spoil the Trojans' title hopes in the process. Apparently it wasn't enough. True, the Bruins talent level never approached USC's, but whose does most seasons? UCLA seems to be on the right track on a lot of fronts, too bad Dorrell won't be around to watch it. ...

Another nice job by ESPN reporting rumors on Saturday. This time it incurred the wrath of LSU coach Les Miles, who may or may not have been headed to Michigan to replace Lloyd Carr. On Sunday, analyst Kirk Herbstreit admitted he was wrong. Gee, maybe Sportscenter can lead with that. ...

Gearing up for Bowl Season and wondering what a team has to do to NOT get invited to a bowl these days.

NFL Week 13 preview

What does the NFL season's final month hold? Will a team overcome a shaky first two-thirds of the season and rally for a playoff spot? Will a team that has started strong limp to the finish?

Here are some predictions of teams that could make a run and others that could fall flat and how that pertains to this week's games.

Moving up in the NFC
Philadelphia (5-6) - The Eagles' aggressive approach nearly knocked off the Patriots, and the guess here is they will continue that approach against Seattle on Sunday.
Chicago (5-6) - The Bears have to rely on Rex Grossman because RB Cedric Benson is injured. Is Chicago doomed? Maybe not. The Bears' pass rush is outstanding, they win games in the fourth quarter and they're not making the mistakes they made earlier in the season.

Moving down in the NFC
Detroit (6-5) - The Lions have lost three in a row, and the Vikings might well make that four on Sunday. Detroit can't run the ball, can't protect QB Jon Kitna and can't defend the pass. It won earlier in the season by dominating the turnover battle. That can't continue.
New York Giants (7-4) - Yup, the annual implosion is well underway, and injuries to their running backs and defense won't help. If the Giants' pass rush lets up at all, their secondary will be exposed. A loss to the Bears on Sunday would dent the Giants' attitude further and add to the heat on QB Eli Manning.

Moving up in the AFC
San Diego (6-5) - Yes, the Chargers have an inside track at winning the West, but at some point they have to figure out that getting the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson more is their wisest strategy. Two reasons for optimism - the defense has regained its teeth and should dominate a banged up Chiefs team, and WR Chris Chambers is beginning to make an impact on the offense.
Cleveland (7-4) - The Browns boast an explosive offense and a defense that is in the top-10 in takeaways. They're for real as a wild-card team, and if the Steelers stumble again (and they have the Patriots on deck), the Browns will be in the thick of the North title race.

Moving down in the AFC
Tennessee (6-5) - The Titans' defense has gone from dominating to sub-par in three weeks. Their ability to run the ball has seemingly vanished. And their final four games include matchups against the Chargers, Colts and Chiefs.
Denver (5-6) - The Broncos' loss at Chicago last Sunday was the type that can demoralize a team, particularly one that has been as inconsistent this season as Denver has. Three of their final five games are within the division, and the other two games appear winnable, but their inability to stop the run could be a problem vs. all five foes.

Game of the Week
Jacksonville (8-3) at Indianapolis (9-2) - Playing at home and having an 11-day since their last game favors the Colts, who must set the tone early. If the game turns into a slowed-down slugfest, the Jaguars will have a good chance of grabbing a share of the AFC South lead.

Game of the Weak:
N.Y. Jets (2-9) at Miami (0-11) - Is this the week the Dolphins finally win? Both teams are decimated by injuries, but Miami more so. They're on their third quarterback of the season, fourth running back and have been missing MLB Zach Thomas because of concussion-related headaches. Still, this is probably the Fins' best chance to win this season because the Jets are equally inept on offense and defense, ranking 30th in the league in both.

Upset Special, Part II: Yes, the elements were horrible on Monday night, but the Steelers nearly lost to a Miami team they have three times more talent than. Cincinnati is playing better, particularly on offense. I think the Bengals will win a shootout at Pittsburgh.
Season upset record: 7-5

Matchup of the Season, Part 2

A disclosure: I am a lifelong Green Bay Packers fan. I grew up less than a mile from Lambeau Field, and aside from a brief affair with the Vikings during my grade-school years (I've since received treatment for this ailment), I've stuck with the Green and Gold.

What to make of Thursday night's matchup of 10-1 teams Dallas and Green Bay?

For one, these two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the NFC, and this should be an NFC Championship Game preview and dictate home-field advantage for the playoffs.

Some things to watch for:

*How will the Packers defend tight end Jason Witten? Top-echelon TEs have gashed Green Bay's defense this season.
*Can the Cowboys slow the Packers' outside pass rush combination of Aaron Kampman and Kabeer-Gbaja Biamila?
*Which team will do a better job establishing the running game and take the heat off their quarterback? The signs point to Dallas, but Ryan Grant is emerging for the Packers.
*Who will win the Al Harris-Terrell Owens matchup? This should be the most compelling individual matchup of the game.

The oddsmakers like the Cowboys by a touchdown. I disagree. I think the Packers' pressure will rattle Dallas quarterback Tony Romo into making mistakes, and I anticipate Brett Favre gradually picking the Cowboys secondary apart. Green Bay is five deep at wide receiver and TE Donald Lee is emerging.

My first upset special of the week: Packers 34, Cowboys 27
Season record in upset picks: 7-4

A nightmare season

Can it get any worse for the NFL?

Tuesday's death of Redskins safety Sean Taylor, a 2006 Pro Bowl selection, is another low point in a season full of them. While many of the details of the shooting that ultimately cost Taylor his life have yet to come to light, what has been reported is scary. Little more than a week ago, Taylor's home was burglarized and a knife was left, reportedly on Taylor's pillow, by the robber.

Taylor is the fourth active NFL player to die in 2007.

It started Jan. 1 with Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams being shot to death in a limo just hours after Denver's season-ending loss on New Year's Eve. Broncos teammate Damien Nash collapsed and died after a charity basketball game a few months later. And during the summer, Patriots defensive lineman Marquis Hill drowned.


The league's image also has taken a beating thanks to the Michael Vick dog-fighting case, the Patriots' "spy-gate" revelation and the growing chorus of former players coming forward with major health problems and decrying a lack of support from the league and its players union.

While those stories are bad news, they pale in comparison to the deaths of four young men, all aged 24, with lives full of promise ahead of them.

It's Miller Time

Dennis Miller is back on TV with a new show, Sports Unfiltered, on the Versus network.

It's a decent idea - combine Miller's humor with sports. He was far better on Monday Night Football than Tony Kornheiser is, and he seems to know just how far he can go without completely stepping over the line.

The show features a standup routine by Miller at the beginning, which has been hit and miss the past few weeks, usually three interviews, a look at NFL betting lines and sports photos of the week.

The interviews are mixed - Miller was excellent with Jose Canseco, for example, and Tennessee hoops coach Bruce Pearl - two people he wasn't as familiar with. But with athletes he obviously knows, such as Warren Sapp and Charles Barkley, he's come across as more patronizing and uncomfortable. The sad part about that is those are two guys you want to just talk and carry the conversation because they're so clever to begin with.

I could do without his weekly Vegas/betting segment, but Miller's Photo Finish is one of the funniest things on TV. It's reminisicent of a feature from his HBO show, which was excellent.

It's a show well worth watching, but I think there is room for improvement.

Turkey Day Football

Face it, you're going to watch a lot of football before, during and after you eat a lot of food today!

Some things to look for:

Green Bay (9-1) can all but clinch the NFC North with a victory at Detroit (6-4). Key matchups - the Packers' pass rush (fifth-most sacks) vs. the Lions' woeful pass blocking (32nd); Detroit's passing game (7th in yards) vs. the Packers' pass defense (19th in yards); and the Packers' passing game (2nd) vs. the Lions' pass defense (30th). Anything can happen, particularly in Detroit on Thanksgiving, but it's tough to see an upset here unless the Packers are careless with the football.

N.Y. Jets (2-8) at Dallas (9-1) appears to be the most clear-cut of Thursday's games. The Jets have the fourth-worst defense in the league, and the Cowboys feature a balanced offense that is rated second in the NFL. The Jets will have to score a lot of points to win, and I don't see that happening without injured WR Lavernues Coles.

The trap game is the night game - Indianapolis (8-2) at Atlanta (3-7). Both teams are banged up, but the Falcons are really struggling with their line play. It won't be pretty, but I expect the Colts to run the ball up the middle a lot given that the Falcons' starting DTs are out for the season. Still, the Colts should have more margin for error (if you can believe this) against the Falcons than they had vs. the Chargers a few weeks back.

Happy Thanksgiving!

NFL Week 11 preview

There are a number of intraconference games this weekend that could have a bearing on the playoff picture. I will highlight these by conference.

GAME OF THE WEEK:
Washington (5-4) at Dallas (8-1): The Redskins can help their cause with a victory, but it won't be easy against a Cowboys team that has the second-rated offense and the seventh-rated defense in the NFL. Washington must get its ground game (8th in the NFL) going to control the clock and keep Dallas' high-powered offense off the field. Both teams are stout vs. the run (Dallas allows 86.8 yards per game, while Washington gives up 99.9 ypg). Both teams are much more susceptible to the pass, which gives the Cowboys a distinct advantage. Not having CB Carlos Rodgers and S Sean Taylor will hurt Washington.

GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
NFC
New York (6-3) at Detroit (6-3): A collision of second-place teams coming off losses, both of which would be wild-card teams if the playoffs started today. The Giants must protect the ball - the Lions lead the league in takeaways despite having the 26th-ranked defense. The Giants lead the league in sacks and are in the top ten in pass and run defense. That's not good news for a Lions offense that is third worst in rushing the ball and has allowed the most sacks in the league.

Chicago (4-5) at Seattle (5-4): This is a game the Bears need if they want a shot at returning to the playoffs. The West-leading Seahawks likely will come out throwing, which plays to the Bears' strength on defense. These are not your mother's Monsters of the Midway, however. The Bears' defense is not even in the top 20 this season.

Carolina (4-5) at Green Bay (8-1): Carolina, which is one game out of first in the South despite its record, has not generated much of a passing game due to injuries at quarterback, but Green Bay has been solid vs. the run (allowing fewer than 93 yards per game). Can the Panthers' slow Brett Favre and his fleet of young receivers enough to keep it close?

AFC
Cleveland (5-4) at Baltimore (4-5): If the current Browns win, it's a season sweep for them over the former Browns. After watching the way Pittsburgh threw the ball all over the Ravens two weeks ago, one has to like Cleveland's chances. Running the ball generally has not been a wise choice vs. the Ravens this season (73.7 ypg). The Ravens' offense is in the hands of Kyle Boller, and they must improve their scoring efficiency (they've got the fourth-fewest points in the league). They'll get opportunities vs. the leaky Browns defense.

San Diego (5-4) at Jacksonville (6-3): A wise person told me this about the Chargers - they had six picks off Peyton Manning, had two return touchdowns and benefited from two missed FGs by a likely Hall of Famer ... and still were lucky to beat the Colts last week. This could be a good game for Bolts QB Philip Rivers to get on track because Jacksonville struggles at times on pass defense. The Jags get QB David Garrard back but are missing DT Marcus Stroud, who is suspended. Jacksonville has the league's No. 3 rushing offense (142 ypg).

Kansas City (4-5) at Indianapolis (7-2): The Chiefs turn over the QB reins to Brodie Croyle, but he'll have to make due without RB Larry Johnson. The Colts return home with a two-game losing streak and without Pro Bowl DE Dwight Freeney, who is out for the season because of a foot injury. If the Colts get TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison back from injury, they'll exploit the Chiefs secondary.

GAME OF THE WEAK
St. Louis (1-8) at San Francisco (2-7): Remember back when this was one of the NFL's best rivalries? Both teams have been decimated by injuries, but the Rams are getting healthier at the skill positions.

UPSET SPECIAL
Tennessee (6-3) at Denver (4-5): The Broncos are at home and are favored, but it's tough to see them running on the Titans or containing Vince Young, who showed signs of life last week.

Season record in upset picks: 7-3

NFL Week 10 preview

We'll learn more about how several divisions could shake out this weekend because there are several intradivisional matchups highlighting the schedule.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Dallas (7-1) at New York Giants (6-2): Can the Giants run their winning streak to seven and avenge a season-opening loss? Their defense is vastly improved, particularly against the pass, since the Cowboys beat them. The combination of a hostile environment, possible adverse weather and the Giant's ferocious pass rush will pose a stiff test for QB Tony Romo. However, Dallas' defense also is improving, and QB Eli Manning must avoid mistakes as well because the Cowboys can strike quickly.

Jacksonville (5-3) at Tennessee (6-2): This should be the week's most punishing game, with each team trying to establish the run to overcome awful passing games. The Titans have the top run defense in the NFL and some momentum. The Jaguars, who already have lost to the Titans this season, badly need a victory here.

GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
Cleveland (5-3) at Pittsburgh (6-2): Think this is a black-and-blue game? Think again. These teams both have top-10 offenses. Both can run or pass, and both have physical offensive lines. The difference? The Steelers have the league's top-ranked defense, while the Browns' is ranked 31st.

Indianapolis (7-1) at San Diego (4-4): How will the Colts bounce back from their loss to the Patriots? The guess here is by running the ball because WR Anthony Gonzalez is out, and TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison are questionable. The Colts will have to slow RB LaDainian Tomlinson. A key matchup will be how San Diego protects QB Philip Rivers, who has been rattled more this season, against Indy's speedy defensive line.

Denver (3-5) at Kansas City (4-4): The Broncos' problem isn't picking up yards (they're 12th in the NFL), but scoring (they're 28th). The Chiefs have allowed the eighth-fewest points, have a potent pass rush and play the run well. KC can really helps its cause with a win. Denver, which has a banged up QB in Jay Cutler, must win or its season could go down the drain in a hurry.

GAME OF THE WEAK:
Buffalo (4-4) at Miami (0-8): The Bills have the 31st-ranked offense and the 29th-rated defense yet they're .500. Welcome to the awful AFC East.

UPSET SPECIAL
Atlanta, which has shown a pulse recently, knocks off Carolina, which has struggled at home and been unable to get the ball in the hands of its best player, WR Steve Smith.

Year-to-date record on upsets: 6-3

Plus/minus

A look at the good and bad in the NHL:

PLUS
To the New York Islanders, especially Coach Ted Nolan, for inviting legendary coach Al Arbour lead the team this past Saturday night. The Isles won and Arbour reached 1,500 games coached in the process. What I really like about this is the respect Nolan has for his field and the team's history. And respect is something the game can always use more of.

MINUS
To the Buffalo Sabres, who, after letting co-captains Daniel Briere and Chris Drury leave via free agency to Eastern Conference rivals, sank to a new low with their treatment of defenseman Teppo Numminen. The pleasant Finn, nicknamed Repo, underwent a second heart surgery before the season started. The Sabres decided to pinch pennies (relatively speaking) and suspend the assistant captain so they wouldn't have to pay him! Contrast this with Edmonton, another small market team, and one that is right up against the salary cap this season. The Oilers continue to pay forward Fernando Pisani as he battles a season-long infection that has cast some doubt about his playing future.

What ails the Stanley Cup champs?

Caught my second Anaheim Ducks game of the season in person last night, and I've noticed a four trends about the defending Stanley Cup champions.

1. They're sound defensively. They held Columbus to 20 shots in regulation and overtime combined. I've seen both goalies - J.S. Giguere and Ilya Bryzgalov - play, and both were steady.

2. Their power play is out of sync even with the return of defenseman Mathieu Schneider. It spends way too much time on the perimeter and rarely gets players in position to bang home rebounds in the slot.

3. They lack finishers on the wings. Aside from Chris Kunitz, Corey Perry (who battles some inconsistency in my opinion) and sometimes Rob Niedermayer, they don't have wingers with a scorer's touch. This is where the losses of Teemu Selanne (retirement) and Dustin Penner (free agency) are being really felt.

4. They're as physical as ever and won't back down from anyone. That's both good and bad. Against the Blue Jackets it meant they spent about half the game killing off penalties.

NFL Week 9 preview

I'd like to start by discussing a game we've been waiting all season for - Falcons vs. 49ers, a clash of two teams with a combined 3-11 record.

OK, kidding there.

When it comes to the NFL this week, there is one game front and center for everyone - the clash of undefeateds - Patriots at Colts. These are the two best teams in the league at this point and owners of two of the past three championships.

The game has been analyzed to death already this week, so I want to point out a few trends I've spotted that might play a role in the outcome. Many believe the Patriots will win, but I'm not so sure.

While the Patriots have been blowing teams out week-in, week-out this season, it's important to note the quality of their competition. The combined record of their foes is 24-34, though they did beat 6-1 Dallas soundly on the road. The Colts, meanwhile, have beaten teams with a combined mark of 27-24 and are coming off road victories over 5-2 Jacksonville and 4-3 Carolina.

The physical factor: For some reason, the Colts are perceived as a "soft" team in some corners. It might have something to do with the calm demeanor of Coach Tony Dungy or their inability to stop the run LAST season, but the aforementioned road victories came against two of the most physical teams in the league. And safety Bob Sanders says new cornerbacks Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson have added a physical element to the secondary.

No one disputes the Patriots' toughness, but receivers Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth have not faced a lot of physical opposition thus far. And Moss, if you may recall, has a long history of pouting when things haven't gone his way. A few hard hits or missed connections might knock him off his game.

Both teams have exceptional offensive lines, probably the most underrated units on each team. Which team can generate the better pass rush will have a huge say in which team wins. The Patriots will send an array of blitzes at Peyton Manning, but that plays to his strengths. I look for the Colts to give Tom Brady a steady diet of DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

And what of the running games? If Lawrence Maroney is healthy, it's a big boost for the Patriots. I think Coach Bill Belichick is going to try to run the ball on the Colts and keep Manning off the field. However, Joseph Addai of the Colts is at least as impressive and he is another key player in this matchup. If he finds room to run, the Colts can keep the Patriots defense a bit off balance.

Three other things to watch for:
The Patriots start fast, and the Colts have started slow this season. However, the Patriots took a 21-3 lead in the AFC Championship Game last season, but the Colts rallied to win.
The Colts are playing at home.
The Colts have the best clutch kicker in the game - Adam Vinitieri, a four-time Super Bowl winner, including three with the Patriots.

My upset special is the Colts beating the Patriots, who are favored by five points.

Upset season record: 6-2

Last week's schedule of games didn't thrill me. This week, however, has an exceptional lineup, so there are several Games Worth a Peak.

Green Bay (6-1) at Kansas City (4-3): Two surprise division leaders meet, and both have teams breathing right down their necks in their divisions. What does QB Brett Favre do for an encore after Monday's heroics? He'll have to be sharp against the Chiefs, who likely will try to control the clock by running Larry Johnson. This could be a real defensive slugfest with one mistake making the difference. Another factor: the Chiefs are rested and the Packers played on the road on Monday night.

Two interconference South battles:

Jacksonville (5-2) at New Orleans (3-4): The Saints ain't dead yet. Winners of three in a row, they're going to have a tough time making it four against the Jaguars and their stout defense. Jacksonville, meanwhile, will rely on its running game - headed by Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor - to try to keep QB Drew Brees and RB Reggie Bush off the field as much as possible.

Carolina (4-3) at Tennessee (5-2): The Panthers have relied on the run since QB Jake Delhomme was lost for the season. Unfortunately for them, the Titans have the league's top run defense. Titans QB Vince Young has appeared out of sorts, and the Panthers have the speed on defense to contain him. This will be a physical, low-scoring game unless Carolina can somehow get WR Steve Smith involved.

Trivia Time: What AFL team did both John Brodie and Mike Ditka sign with (though never play for) in 1966?

PRIME TIME TREATS:
Both night games this week offer intense, intradivisional rivalries.

Sunday - Dallas (6-1) at Philadelphia (3-4): The Cowboys are rested, and a road victory here would keep them in the NFC East driver's seat. Dallas will need to run the ball some on Philadelphia's improved run defense. The Cowboys shaky secondary presents an opportunity for QB Donovan McNabb. The Eagles are in danger of irrelevance in the division if they lose another home divisional game.

Monday - Baltimore (4-3) at Pittsburgh (5-2): The Ravens don't appear to be the team many (including me) thought they would be - road losses to improving Cleveland and Buffalo demonstrate that. Pittsburgh has the necessary run/pass balance on offense to keep the Ravens honest. The Ravens offense again is struggling, so their defense is going to have to pressure QB Ben Roethlisberger and hope for turnovers.

GAMES OF THE WEAK:
San Francisco (2-5) at Atlanta (1-6): What do you get when you add two teams with zero starting-caliber quarterbacks? This.
Houston (3-5) at Oakland (2-5): This is a good lesson about why you can't get too excited about teams that start fast. These were division leaders five weeks ago.

Trivia answer: The Houston Oilers

Monday Night, Week 8

My upset special this week is selected with both my heart and my head: The Packers will take down the Broncos in Denver for the first time ever.

Denver will not have an answer for Green Bay's defense, which will force plenty of turnovers. Working with a short field, I expect the Packers offense to mix in more running plays against the porous middle of the Broncos defense. The Broncos are quick on the outside and feature an excellent pair of cornerbacks, so Brett Favre will attack the heart of the Denver defense.

Season record in upset picks: 5-2

Coming later this week, a mid-season report and a closer look at the Super Bowl - Patriots vs. Colts.

NFL Week 7 preview

Undefeated and winless. There are two of each remaining as the NFL heads into Week 7 of the 2007 season.

Interestingly enough, one of the two unbeaten teams (the 6-0 Patriots) pays a visit to one of the two winless teams (the 0-6 Dolphins).

The Patriots have the look of one of the league's all-time best teams. Their offense has shredded everyone in sight, and their defense has remained its opportunistic self. Many are predicting they will not lose a game this season, much less this week.

Nothing, meanwhile, has gone right for the Dolphins, who have lost QB Trent Green, possibly for good, because of a concussion, and just traded their best receiver, Chris Chambers. Even the normally reliable Dolphins defense has fallen from its usual perch in the top five of the NFL rankings.

Last season, Miami beat New England at home. That won't happen this time around.

The league's other unbeaten team, the 5-0 Colts, is coming off its bye week to face its toughest in-division competitor, the 4-1 Jaguars, on Monday night. The bye came at a good time for the Colts, who have been banged up.

The keys to the game of the week are:
Can the Indianapolis defense contain Jacksonville's running game and force QB David Garrard into making mistakes? Garrard has yet to throw a pick this season.
Can Jacksonville control the clock and keep Indy's high-octane offense off the field as much as possible?

The Jaguars blew out the Colts down the stretch last season, but this is going to be a close one. I'm giving the Colts the nod because they're rested and at home.

The NFL's other winless team, the 0-6 Rams, pays a visit to Seattle. The Rams, who have been wrecked by injuries, particularly on offense, likely will get QB Marc Bulger back this week, which will help. But without RB Stephen Jackson it's hard to see them winning in Seattle, where the usually dominant Seahawks suddenly have been exposed as vulnerable.

One other game of note is on Sunday night, when Denver plays host to Pittsburgh in a battle of teams coming off byes. The Broncos took an unusual pasting at home from San Diego two weeks ago, and they appear to be at a make or break point in their season because both the Chargers and Chiefs are playing much better right now. The Steelers are winning with their hallmarks - a punishing defense and strong ground game. The difference for them has been the play of QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has cut down his mistakes from a season ago and is making big plays when needed.

There are plenty of clunkers this week, too.

My upset special is Tampa Bay, which I believe is for real, beating Detroit. I think the Lions are a mirage, and against a defense as stout as the Bucs' their careless ways are going to cost them. On the flip side, Bucs QB Jeff Garcia is not making the types of mistakes that the Lions have feasted on in their victories this season.

Upset special season record: 5-1

A bye week

What happened last week?

Well, I took a bye week! To make up for it, I will try to be more diligent this week.

One topic that has come up more and more this NFL season is the number of quarterback changes due to injury and poor play. What follows is a quick look, by division, at each team's quarterback picture six weeks into the season. (* indicates team has made a change)

NFC EAST
Dallas - Tony Romo has been excellent, with the exception of one game vs. Buffalo
NY Giants - Eli Manning is improving, particularly in his consistency
Philadelphia - Donovan McNabb appears slow, as if he's not fully recovered from knee surgery. But he is still an elite quarterback
Washington - Jason Campbell is improving and seems like he will give the Redskins very good quarterbacking for years to come

NFC NORTH
* Chicago - A mistake-prone Brian Griese has replaced a mistake-prone Rex Grossman
Detroit - Jon Kitna is taking a lot of hits, but he's also passing for a lot of yards for the surprising Lions
Green Bay - Brett Favre. Enough said.
* Minnesota - Tavaris Jackson-Kelly Holcombe-Tavaris Jackson. Not sure that it matters, and whoever stands under center has no one to pass to anyway.

NFC SOUTH
* Atlanta - Bryon Leftwich, who was cut by Jacksonville before the season, is replacing Joey Harrington, who was released by Miami after last season. Harrington replaced Michael Vick, who isn't even released to leave home
* Carolina - Vinny Testaverde has not cashed his most recent social security check because he replaced the injured David Carr, who replaced the injured Jake Delhomme
New Orleans - After a 0-4 start that included 1 TD pass and six picks, Saints fans probably were wishing Drew Brees had been replaced. Brees did show signs of life on Monday night as the Saints finally won.
Tampa Bay - Jeff Garcia has elevated the Bucs to playoff contender

NFC WEST
* Arizona - Tim Rattay has replaced the injured Kurt Warner, who replaced the injured Matt Leinart
* San Francisco - Trent Dilfer replaced the injured Alex Smith
Seattle - Matt Hasselbeck has been healthy, his receivers haven't been.
* St. Louis - Gus Frerotte has Rams fans wanting to bang their heads against an end zone wall after replacing the injured Marc Bulger

AFC EAST
* Buffalo - Trent Edwards replaced the injured JP Losman, and it appears the rookie is going to keep the job now even though Losman could play
* Miami - Cleo Lemon has replaced the concussed Trent Green for the winless Fins
New England - Tom Brady. Enough said.
NY Jets - Injury-prone Chad Pennington is the starter for now, but calls for Kellen Clemons are increasing

AFC NORTH
* Baltimore - Kyle Boller has replaced the injured Steve McNair. The two likely will alternate the rest of the season
Cincinnati - Carson Palmer is healthy again.
* Cleveland - Derek Anderson replaced Charlie Frye, who was so bad in Week 1 that he was traded. My question is what were Browns coaches watching during training camp?
Pittsburgh - Big Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, and the Steelers are rolling

AFC SOUTH
Houston - Think Atlanta wishes it hadn't traded Matt Schaub
Indianapolis - I think this Peyton Manning guy has a future in the league
Jacksonville - David Garrard IS an upgrade over Byron Leftwich. The Jags enjoy a big advantage in the turnover department
* Tennessee - Vince Young, who has a leg injury, might be replaced by Kerry Collins this week

AFC WEST
Denver - David Cutler has looked very uncomfortable in what could be a very long season in the Mile High City. At least the Rockies are in the Series
Kansas City - Damon Huard has held off Brodie Croyle. You're an NFL fanatic if you know what that means
* Oakland - Daunte Culpepper has replaced the injured Josh McCown, both of whom are keeping the seat warm for JaMarcus Russell
San Diego - Philip Rivers has looked a lot better once the Bolts started calling LaDainian Tomlinson's number more.

So 13 teams have different starting quarterbacks than they had at the start of the season, and there is the potential for a few more changes this week.

Early look at the NHL's Western Conference

Generally considered the more competitive of the NHL's two conferences, the West has several solid Stanley Cup contenders and should feature a heated battle for its final 3-4 playoff spots.

An overview of the West:

Best Division: The Pacific, home to Stanley Cup champion Anaheim, San Jose, Dallas - all three playoff teams, and the up-and-coming Kings.
Worst Division: The Central. After Detroit, it's tough to envision another team aside from Nashville or St. Louis possibly sneaking into the playoffs.
Most Balanced Division: The Northwest. Aside from Edmonton, any of the other four teams could win it, and it would not shock me if Calgary, Colorado, Minnesota and Vancouver all made the playoffs.

Cup Contenders: Anaheim, San Jose, Detroit, Minnesota and possibly Calgary.
The skinny: If D Scott Niedermayer and/or F Teemu Selanne return at some point, the Ducks' chances improve. Anaheim must not fall too far back as it deals with early season injuries. ... If the Sharks' young players continue trend upward, particularly on defense, they will be a force to be reckoned with. ... The Red Wings are putting a lot of faith in goalie Dominik Hasek, but they play in a bad division and will pile up points and get a high postseason seed. ... The Wild have the best goaltender you've never heard of - Nicklas Backstrom - solid systems and great team speed. As they develop complementary scoring and toughness to their top line, they will be very difficult to play against. ... Either the Mike Keenan experiement in Calgary will be a rousing success or cause the Flames to implode. I question their offseason personnel moves (smell like "Keenan guys"), but they have great on-ice leaders and one of the top goalies in Mikka Kiprusoff.

Have Holes: Colorado, Vancouver, Dallas, Nashville
The skinny: The Avalanche need improved goaltending and defense, though signing D Scott Hannan and getting D Jordan Leopold back from injury helps. Offense will not be a problem. ... The Canucks have the opposite problem - great goaltending and defense, but not nearly enough offense. ... Ditto the Stars, whose best offensive players are getting long in the tooth. Still, Dallas is hard to play again. ... The Predators need a lot of young players to step to offset massive losses in the offseason, but the cupboard is far from bare - particularly on defense. A playoff berth is not out of the question.

Not Yet: Los Angeles, St. Louis, Chicago, Columbus, Phoenix, Edmonton.
The Skinny: Of these five, Los Angeles and St. Louis are best-positioned to make the leap into the playoffs. ... The Kings added a lot of complementary players to their young offensive stars. If they get consistent goaltending, they'll be better than expected. ... The Blues' signing of Paul Kariya will help their offense. St. Louis' play picked up dramatically under Coach Andy Murray. I question if they have the horses to keep up in the West. ... Chicago has good young talent and an excellent goaltender in Nikolai Khabibulin, but the Hawks need more time and more consistent scoring. ... Columbus has some questions in net and lacks scoring depth, but F Rick Nash should grow into a dominant player under Coach Ken Hitchcock. ... The Coyotes will be the West's worst team by virtue of weak goaltending, suspect offense and playing in the toughest division. ... The Oilers are in rebuild mode, and it's tough to see where they will get their offense from. If goalie Dwayne Roloson goes down, it could get ugly again.

NFL Week 5

I like to think of the NFL season in terms of quarters, and this weekend we enter the second quarter of the season. So what does that mean? Adjustments.

There will be some teams who have gotten off to unexpected slow starts that begin to pull it together, while others continue their fade. And some of the fast-starters might be in for rude awakenings.

I believe this is a week we'll start to see that, and I will address that in selected games.

Remember, too, that the impact of injuries can't be overstated.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Detroit (3-1) at Washington (2-1): It's tough for me to believe the Lions will win 12 games, which they're on pace to, or even the 10 that QB Jon Kitna predicted. Here's why - their defense has been terrible, which is masked by the amount of turnovers they're forcing. Their offense is explosive, but for a club that relies on the pass as much the Lions do, they must protect Kitna better - he's on pace to be sacked more than 80 times. The Redskins are rested after an early bye week, and I believe they will return to a ball-control-style of offense. And Washington's defense is showing some improvement. Factor in that the Redskins have the horses in the secondary to keep up with Detroit's passing game, and I see the Lions' bubble beginning to burst.

Tampa Bay (3-1) at Indianapolis (4-0): The Bucs certainly qualify as a surprise team. Their defense has been revitalized, and QB Jeff Garcia is playing nearly mistake-free football. However, losing RB Cadillac Williams for the season to injury is going to hurt because I believe the Colts can be run on. If this game turns into a shootout, Indy will expose Tampa's defense. And don't forget, Colts coach Tony Dungy knows Tampa's defense better than most of its players do. I would be surprised if this isn't close because Tampa appears better than most (including myself thought).

Seattle (3-1) at Pittsburgh (3-1): This will be a huge test for both of the Super Bowl 40 participants. Can the Seahawks win another big game on the road and stamp themselves as a Super Bowl contender? How do the Steelers respond after a disappointing road loss at Arizona? Expect a low-scoring, ground-based game because both teams have ferocious pass rushes.

Chicago (1-3) at Green Bay (4-0): Are the Packers for real despite having the league's worst ground game? Can the Bears overcome an array of injuries and an offense that appears completely out of sync? Answer to question No. 1 - yes, Green Bay's defense and special teams are excellent, and so far Brett Favre has been outstanding enough to compensate for a lack of a ground game. Chicago has looked horrible two weeks in a row, but this is a rivalry game, and the Bears' season is riding on it. If Chicago loses, it's four games out of first place and it has two division losses after only one all last season (to Green Bay). The Bears must blitz Favre silly and control the ball behind RB Cedric Benson or they're staring at 1-4.


GAMES OF THE WEAK (and some upsets):
Carolina (2-2) at New Orleans (0-3): Before the season I would have pegged this as one of the NFC's top games, but not now. The Saints have not been able to do much right offensively or defensively, but the most telling stat is they do not have a sack yet this season. But the Panthers are without QB Jake Delhomme, and backup David Carr looked awful last week against the Bucs. Somehow the Saints, who are coming off a bye, are favored, but they haven't proved they can stop anyone, so I predict Carolina will run the ball at will.

Arizona (2-2) at St. Louis (0-4): Both teams are banged up, but the difference is the Cardinals have an aggressive defense and RB Edgerrin James. Tough to see the Rams winning without RB Steven Jackson and QB Marc Bulger. Also tough to see Coach Scott Linehan lasting more than a few weeks as things continue to implode under the arch.


ANOTHER UPSET SPECIAL:
San Diego (1-3) at Denver (2-2): Two more teams I was high on at the beginning of the season, and I think the Chargers will pull it together if they start running LaDainian Tomlinson more. The Broncos offer the perfect team to do that against. I also think the Chargers' defense has far more ability than it's shown thus far. The Chargers get their season back on track.

Upset picks:
Carolina over New Orleans
San Diego over Denver

Season record on upset specials: 3-1

NFL Week 4

Everywhere you look this weekend there are intriguing storylines in NFL games.

Start with the eight intradivision games:
In the AFC, the former Browns (Baltimore Ravens) play the current Browns, who have been sparked by a former Raven (RB Jamal Lewis). Got it? ... The Chiefs visit the Chargers in a battle of two disappointing teams seeking to avoid 1-3 starts in the West. ... And the banged-up Bills play host to a Jets team that can get itself back in the hunt in the East with a second consecutive East victory.

In the NFC, the Central team pair off. Brett Favre can set the all-time touchdown pass record in Minnesota, but more importantly, the Packers can improve to 4-0 with a victory over the Vikings. Meanwhile, the banged-up Bears (who might be without DL Tommie Harris, LB Lance Briggs and three-fourths of their starting secondary) turn to QB Brian Griese at Detroit, where the Lions can score points in bunches but also give them up in bunches. ... In the East, the Eagles and Giants are coming off their first victories, and both need one here to keep pace with the Cowboys. ... In the South and the West, first place is on the line when the Bucs visit the Panthers and the Seahawks pay a call on the 49ers.

ALL IN THE FAMILY
Pittsburgh (3-0) at Arizona (1-2): The Steelers pay a visit to the desert and renew acquaintances with the two assistants passed over for their head coaching vacancy in favor of Coach Mike Tomlin (Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm).
Houston (2-1) at Atlanta (0-3): The Matt Schaub Bowl. Think the Falcons regret trading the QB now?

THAT 70s SHOW (aka GAMES OF THE WEAK)
Turn back the clock three decades and you'd have two marquee matchups - the Raiders at the Dolphins and the Rams at the Cowboys. Instead you get the Games of the Weak.

Oakland (1-2) will start Daunte Culpepper at QB against one of his former teams, Miami (0-3). The Raiders have established a running game with LaMont Jordan, and RB Ronnie Brown showed signs of life for the Dolphins last week. Whomever gets the best of that battle against two decent defenses likely will lead his team to victory.

The beleagured Rams (0-3) will be without two of their top offensive linemen and RB Steven Jackson against a Cowboys team (3-0) that is clicking on all cylinders. Compounding things for St. Louis are QB Marc Bulger's broken ribs and the Rams defense's inability to stop anything. It won't be pretty.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Denver (2-1) at Indianapolis (3-0): The Broncos have to run the ball well and control the clock to have a chance. Running might be a strategy the Colts want to adhere to this week - Denver's secondary is good, but the Broncos can't stop the run.

New England (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2): I think the Patriots will win, particularly if Bengals RB Rudi Johnson can't play, but this Monday night game will be a blast to watch because of all the points being scored. I expect to see at least 70.

UPSET SPECIAL:
Oakland over Miami. Yes, the Dolphins are favored, but I think the Raiders might be better than many (including yours truly) expected at the beginning of the season. Unless Ronnie Brown has a huge day running the ball and Miami can force at least three turnovers, I think Oakland will win handily.
Upset season record: 2-1.

TAKING A BREAK: New Orleans, Washington, Jacksonville and Tennessee.

NFL Week 3

In this week's edition of Sports Illustrated, NFL writer Peter King, who is one of the most decent, hard-working men in the business, writes a piece about the "code" among NFL coaches and how the Jets' Eric Mangini broke that by turning in the Patriots and Bill Belichick for their video spy tactics.

Unnamed source after unnamed source said how bad it was, what a slap in the face it was to Belichick, who helped jump start Mangini's career. Without directly saying it, the piece inferred it's irresponsible to turn in a former mentor for cheating. And let's call it what it is. Belichick and the Patriots cheated. Whether it affected the outcome of the game or whether or not any other teams do it (they do) isn't pertinent for argument's sake.

Also cited was a time when Mangini and the Jets signed a player, a free agent, off the Patriots' roster whom Belichick wanted to retain. That also broke the "code", according to King.

And what of Mangini? Doesn't he have a responsibility to the guys who sign his paycheck? The fans who make that paycheck possible? And to the 53 men plus staffers he faces each week on the field and in the locker room? That responsibility counts for more than " the code" - it's just that few, including King unfortunately, seem to get that.

GAME OF THE WEEK
Chicago (1-1) at Dallas (2-0): The Bears have allowed the fewest points in the NFC, the Cowboys score an average of 13 more per game than any other NFC team. What will give? It comes down to can the Bears establish a ground game to control the clock, and can QB Rex Grossman he limit his mistakes?

GAMES WORTH A PEEK
San Diego (1-1) at Green Bay (2-0): The Packers have two wins over playoff teams from a year ago in two weeks. Their defense and special teams have been so strong they've helped overcome a non-existent running game and a passing game that relies on dink-and-dunk plays. The Chargers are smarting after a rough Week 1 victory over the Bears and a rougher Week 2 loss in New England. LaDainian Tomlinson really can't have three bad games in a row, can he? He has to carry the load, literally, because QB Philip Rivers appears to have no feel for the rush and he's going to see a lot of it.

San Francisco (2-0) at Pittsburth (2-0): The team of the 80s faces the team of the 70s. The 49ers defense was dealt a blow when LB Manny Lawson was lost for the season with a knee injury. If the Steelers stop RB Frank Gore, they'll roll because the Pittsburgh offense appears formidable. So much for new coach Mike Tomlin's break-in period.

Indianapolis (2-0) at Houston (2-0): Yes, the AFC South title might be on the line. OK, that's an exaggeration, but if the Texans beat the Super Bowl champs, they will have an early lead in the division and stamp themselves a legitimate playoff contender. Unfortunately for the Texans, star WR Andre Johnson will miss the game because of injury. Houston beat Indy at home last season without QB Matt Schaub, however, and he has been a difference-maker for the Texans offense.

GAMES OF THE WEAK
Miami (0-2) at NY Jets (0-2): The good news is one of these teams will pick up a victory. The bad news: They more than likely will still be two games behind the Patriots.

Cleveland (1-1) at Oakland (0-2): Unlike last week, when the Browns rang up 51 points on Cincinnati's crummy defense, they face a team with a real defense. The problem for the Raiders is their offense (RB LaMont Jordan being the exception).

UPSET SPECIAL
Jacksonville (1-1) at Denver (2-0): What's puzzling about the Jaguars is their lack of a running game thus far (they're ranked 21st). The Broncos lead the NFL in yards and are second in yards allowed, yet they've scored just 38 points in two games and have needed a last-second field goal and an overtime field goal to beat teams that are a combined 0-2. I like the Jaguars to take it.

Last week: The Dolphins hung tough for about two and a half quarters then disintegrated vs. the Cowboys, making me 1-1 in upset picks.

NFL Week 2 rewind

Suppose you're a pro football fan in New York, Kansas City, New Orleans or Philadelphia today. Your team (or in NY's case - both of them) is off to an 0-2 start after reaching the playoffs last season. In the case of New Orleans, your team reached the NFC Championship Game and was widely predicted to be a Super Bowl contender.

Where do you go from here, and is your season lost?

Here are some possible scenarios for you team and my view on their playoff prospects in 2007:

New York Jets - Losing QB Chad Pennington to injury hurts. They're a different team with him in the lineup. The Jets' defense played better vs. the Ravens in Week 2, but the killer was dropped passes by their receivers, particularly late in the game. ... They face a long playoff road in the highly competitive AFC, but not impossible one.

New York Giants - The back seven of their defense looks horrible. The running game has been up and down, and no one knows just how injured QB Eli Manning is. Oh, and it's only taken two weeks for people to start calling for Coach Tom Coghlin's head again. ... It's going to be a long season for the G-men, particularly in the division they play in.

Kansas City - Let's see, the Chiefs can't score and can't run the ball. The highlight so far is their defense is middle of the road and has been good against the pass. Still trying to figure out why they felt the need to trade QB Trent Green. ... The Chiefs should start planning for a high draft choice.

Philadelphia - The Eagles really might be close to being a decent team. The offense is struggling to get in sync, but that's more a product of QB Donovan McNabb regaining strength, timing and comfort. My guess is he will. The defense has been very good and seems to have solved its problems vs. the run. If Philly can put a stop to its mistakes and penalties, it will be in the hunt for a playoff berth because so many NFC teams have major flaws.

New Orleans - How does this team have just 24 points so far in two games? The league's top offense in 2006 has appeared lost at times. It's as if teams have figured out what Coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees are trying to do. The talent does not say this is a middle-of-the-pack offense. The defense has been awful, particularly the secondary - even worse than I thought it would be. The Saints' division is so bad that 8-8 might get them a spot in the playoffs, but I don't know if they can overcome Carolina, which I now view as the front-runner in the NFC South.

NFL Week 2

So who has the advantage early in the season? Offenses or defenses?

A casual look at Week 1 seems to reveal that defenses are way out in front earlier on, but the numbers suggest otherwise.

During Week 1 six teams scored 30 or more points, and five scored 10 or less. In 2006, one team scored more than 30 but six were held to 10 or fewer, including three who were shut out. So a case could be made there is more offense this season.

What does Week 2 hold? Get ready for blowout city. In 2006, Week 2 saw nine teams held to 10 or fewer points, but six scored 30 or more, including two in the 40s. Thirteen of the 16 games were decided by a touchdown or more, and a 14th was decided by six points.

Looking back at Week 1: Tough week for the NFC front-runners. The Colts smacked the Saints around last Thursday night, the Chargers overcame the Bears in one of the more physical games I've seen, the Seahawks looked pedestrian at times in beating the Bucs, the Eagles were done in by an abundance of mistakes at Green Bay, and the Cowboys' defense - despite a fine collection of talent - looked vulnerable against the Giants. ... It will be interesting to see what sort of discipline is handed down to the Patriots for their spy tactics against the Jets (and likely other teams, including the Packers last season). For consistency's sake, Commissioner Roger Goddell needs to suspend Coach Bill Belichick and dock the team a high draft pick. I don't know that a fine does much good given the amount of money in the league these days.

Story of the week: The miraculous recovery of Buffalo tight end Kevin Everett, who suffered a spinal injury in the Bill's loss to the Broncos in Week 1. The prognosis has gone from Everett fighting for his life to likely being paralyzed to there being a good chance of him regaining most of his range of motion.

GAMES OF THE WEEK
San Diego (1-0) at New England (1-0): The Chargers' brutal early season schedule takes them to Boston, where the Patriots will be happy to play football after a week of talk about their video games. San Diego proved its defense is for real against the Bears, but the Patriots' attack is up a few levels. The secondary is the weak link of the Chargers' D, and the passing attack seems to be the biggest strength of the Pats' O. The keys: Can San Diego do something the Jets could not in Week 1 - rush QB Tom Brady, and can the Chargers control the clock with RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who was stopped in his tracks by the Bears defense?

Indianapolis (1-0) at Tennessee (1-0): It was Chris Brown, not Vince Young, who sank the Jaguars with a big game in Week 1. If the Titans knock off the other AFC South Superpower in back-to-back weeks, they will stamp themselves as a contender. One difference, they have to defend Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne this week, not David Garrard, Earnest Wilford and Matt Jones. The Colts have the teams speed on defense to spy on Young and limit the havoc he creates better than most teams.

GAMES OF THE WEAK:
Kansas City (0-1) at Chicago (0-1): First one to 10 wins.

Atlanta (0-1) at Jacksonville (0-1): Will a pass be completed - the correct team?

New Orleans (0-1) at Tampa Bay (0-1): Maybe the pirate ship in the end zone at Raymond James Stadium will hijack Drew Brees and Reggie Bush - that would give the Bucs a chance against a team that's mad and coming off a 10-day gap between games.

UPSET SPECIAL:
Dallas (1-0) at Miami (0-1): Miami hung tough with Washington on the road. Dallas raised some questions in its victory over the Giants. The Cowboys should win, but I think the Dolphins defense will have something to say about that and surprise.

2007 NFC Preview

A division-by-division look at the NFC, including playoff picks and projections of teams rising and falling.

EAST
1 - Dallas - I liked all of the Cowboys' offseason moves: Leonard Davis will be a force at guard, Ken Hamlin solidifies the secondary, and Coach Wade Phillips will reinvigorate an already very good defense with his array of schemes and blitz packages. The Cowboys have a rising quarterback, size and speed at receiver, an excellent tight end and two very solid running backs.
2 - Philadelphia - It all comes down to Donovan McNabb's health and the ability of the defense to stop the run. If those are positives, the Eagles can contend for the division title. If McNabb gets hurt again or the Eagles can't stop the run, they'll struggle to reach the postseason. RB Brian Westbrook is the most versatile back in the NFL.
3 - Washington - Like Dallas, this is another team with two very good running backs, a good tight end and a developing QB (Jason Campbell). I'm not crazy about the Redskins' front seven on defense or their receivers, but the talent is there for those areas to improve. The secondary could be dominant if its members play to their vast potentials. Washington has disappointed the past few seasons, so this might be a make or break year for it.
4 - New York Giants - The Giants will really miss retired RB Tiki Barber. Unless QB Eli Manning takes a big step forward in his development, this will be a very predictable offense, and the defenses in this division are good enough to take advantage of that. A team that appears unsettled under Coach Tom Coghlin might come apart at the seems by midseason.

NORTH
1. Chicago - The Bears appear to have a lot of questions after their Super Bowl appearance: Is Rex Grossman the answer at QB? Can RB Cedric Benson handle the load now that Thomas Jones is gone? Will all the coaching staff changes (five assistants left) affect the on-field play? Chicago still has more talent than any team in this division by a mile.
2. Green Bay - The Packers feature and up-and-coming defense and slowly are building some depth on the offensive line. QB Brett Favre is back, which will aid the development of the young and talented group of receivers. But the Pack has no one, literally, to run the ball, and that will be their undoing. Had they kept Ahman Green or acquired a suitable replacement, they'd be a playoff team.
3. Minnesota -The Vikings have an opportunistic defense, and one that is excellent vs. the run. Rookie RB Adrian Peterson looks like a franchise back, and he and Chester Taylor should complement one another well. They have the opposite problem that the Packers do, no QB and receivers with any significant experience.
4. Detroit - Will the Lions never learn? They again addressed their offense (drafting WR Calvin Johnson and trading for RB Tatum Bell) at the expense of their defense, which outside of DLs Shaun Rodgers and Cory Redding and LB Ernie Sims, will be awful.

SOUTH
1. New Orleans - The Saints, yes the Saints, are Super Bowl contenders if the middle of their defense improves. Adding TE Eric Johnson was brilliant and further diversifies the conference's top offense.
2. Carolina - The Panthers get this spot by default because I think the teams below them are horrible. Two years ago, Carolina looked like a budding dynasty, but now it appears to have a lot of holes. I'm not sure RBs DeShaun Foster or DeAngelo Williams are good fits for the offense, and beyond Steve Smith there is not much at WR. Both lines have had injury problems, and the defense - supposedly elite - could not pressure the QB or stop the run nearly as well as advertised last season.
3. Tampa Bay - Obtaining QB Jeff Garcia will help solidify that position for a season, but it can't mask that this is an aging team at several positions, and one almost completely void of playmakers. The defense will be OK, but the offense really needs to involve RB Carnell Williams more. It's a make-or-break season for Coach Jon Gruden, but this is a franchise that should go into rebuild mode.
4. Atlanta - I might have put the Falcons in this spot BEFORE all the Michael Vick revelations, but that cemented it. The all-around impact of that on a team that had a lot of holes and a new coach with very little NFL experience will be devastating. In terms of personnel, losing DE Patrick Kearney in free agency and trading QB Matt Schaub really hurt. Winning more than three games would be a miracle.

WEST
1. Seattle - The Seahawks have the best all-around talent in this division, a solid coaching staff, an enormous home-field edge and the experience of winning. If they stay healthy and some of their more recent acquisitions play to their potential (WR Deion Branch, DE Patrick Kearney, S Deon Grant), they will be formidable.
2. San Francisco - A fashionable pick as a division winner, the 49ers need three things to happen for that to become a reality: Alex Smith must continue to progress at QB (and do so despite his third coordinator in three seasons), RB Frank Gore must stay healthy (he was nicked in preseason and has a lengthy college injury history), and the Niners need some receivers to emerge (obtaining Darrell Jackson from Seattle was a start). The defense should be even better with the additions of CB Nate Clements, S Michael Lewis and rookie LB Patrick Willis.
3. St. Louis - If only the Rams had a better defense. Their offense will be diversified and explosive. Adding WR Drew Bennett and TE Randy McMichael will enhance their red-zone scoring capabilities. The secret to beating the Rams has been running the ball on them, and I see no reason for that to change. The defense is youthful, and thus could improve.
4. Arizona - See St. Louis. The Cardinals have a lot of talent on offense, but this is a team that is handicapped by its weak line play on both sides of the ball. The Cards also might have the weakest linebacking group in the league. They'll be fun to watch, but unless their line play improves dramatically, it will be more of the same.

Going up: Dallas, San Francisco

Going down: Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New York

Best division: East - Dallas and Philadelphia will be two of the better teams in the conference. If Washington plays up to its potential and stays healthy, it could be in the mix for a playoff spot as well.

Worst division: South - Beyond New Orleans, I don't see a playoff team. What I do see are the conference's two worst teams, hands down, in Tampa Bay and Atlanta.

Playoff teams: Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco

Conference champion: Dallas (over New Orleans)

2007 AFC predictions

Here is how I see the AFC shaking out this season, division by division.

EAST
1. New England - DL Richard Seymour's injury hurts, but the Pats are loaded on offense, even if Randy Moss isn't what he once was. QB Tom Brady has better targets and RB Lawrence Maroney is primed for a huge year.
2. New York Jets - Acquiring RB Thomas Jones and drafting CB Derrelle Revis were brilliant moves. The Jets face a tough schedule, but they shored up two weaknesses and are not as far behind the Pats as you might think.
3. Buffalo - Huge losses through free agency and trades have hurt, but the Bills have drafted very well two years in a row and most of those picks will play big roles. If QB JP Losman trends upward again, the Bills may surprise.
4. Miami - It's tough for me to see a team with no offensive line, a disappointing running game and some questionable drafting do well, especially in this division. Obtaining QB Trent Green and LB Joey Porter helps, but the Dolphins should have started their rebuild job because they won't contend.

NORTH
1. Baltimore - An aging team, but a good one. Adding RB Willis McGahee adds versatility to the offense, but it all comes down to keeping QB Steve McNair healthy. If he is and the Ravens' receiving corps steps up, look out, because Baltimore has a championship caliber defense.
2. Cincinnati - The Carson Palmer-directed offense should pile up points. Two big questions marks, however, are can the defense stop anyone and what if RB Rudi Johnson, whose yards per carry dropped off some last season, gets injured.
3. Pittsburgh - I see more questions than answers with this team. How will the players respond to Coach Mike Tomlin after 15 years of Bill Cowher? How will the offense and defense overcome the losses of C Jeff Hartings and LB Joey Porter? Which Ben Roethlisberger will we see - the 2005 Super Bowl-winning version or the 2006 distracted, injured and out-of-sync model?
4. Cleveland - The Browns have upgraded their talent level, particularly on offense, where their line should be a lot better and Jamal Lewis will help the running game. If anyone can get the football to TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards, they might be on to something. Still, the defense has too many holes to fill, but the Browns are on the right track, finally.

SOUTH
1. Indianapolis - The Colts sustained a lot of losses on defense, but then it wasn't very good last year until the playoffs. The offense should hum, particularly with RB Joseph Addai gaining a year of experience and the addition of rookie WR Anthony Gonzalez. Losing LT Tarik Glenn (retirement) and DT Anthony McFarland (injury) will bring the Colts closer to the pack this season.
2. Jacksonville - Great defense, very good running game and no passing game. Yes, David Garrard is more mobile than Byron Leftwich, but he's not much more accurate and neither of them have had good options to throw to since Jimmy Smith retired. The Leftwich release signals to me the team better win now or some others, notably Coach Jack Del Rio, might be sent packing.
3. Houston - The Texans' young defense will improve, and Matt Schaub and Ahman Green are big upgrades at QB and RB, respectively.
4. Tennessee - Can QB Vince Young do it all by himself? Given the Titans' free-agent losses at RB and WR, he might have to. Still, as much as he runs with the ball, it's hard to imagine he won't get injured at some point, which would make the Titans one of the league's worst teams.

WEST
1. San Diego - The Chargers are loaded everywhere but receiver, and the thinking here is that Vincent Jackson and rookie Craig Davis change that. The defense should be dominant, and then there are a few guys named Tomlinson, Gates and Rivers playing behind a very solid line on offense. Still, the Bolts have to win a playoff game with this crew.
2. Denver - If QB Jay Cutler improves and RB Travis Henry gets healthy, the offense will be high-powered. Stopping the run will be the barometer of the defense, perhaps ultimately the team's success.
3. Kansas City - Another team that puzzles me. If you're a playoff team, which the Chiefs were last season, why give your starting quarterback away when you have no viable replacement? The Chiefs absorbed some big losses on the offensive line, and the secondary is slow.
4. Oakland - Puzzling doesn't even begin to describe this outfit. You know they have not signed the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, JaMarcus Russell, as of Labor Day. They did sign RB Dominic Rhodes, but he promptly was suspended for a substance-abuse violation. Adding QB Daunte Culpepper is a good short-term fix, and the defense again should be very good.

Surprises: Buffalo (it's probably a year too early), Cleveland
Look out below: Miami, Cincinnati (I could see the bottom fall out), Tennessee, Kansas City (I am not sold on the Chiefs)
Playoff teams: New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis, San Diego, Denver, New York Jets
Conference champ: San Diego over New England