Friday, December 28, 2007

NFL 2007 rewind

Each NFL season I like to take Week 17 to look back at what the prognosticators, including yours truly, had to say before the season. To review my division-by-division predictions, visit the bottom of the September 2007 archive page.

Legend:
SI = Sports Illustrated
PFW = Pro Football Weekly
TSN = The Sporting News
Me = Yours truly

AFC East


Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me

1 Patriots Pats Pats Pats
2 Jets Jets Jets Jets
3 Bills Bills Bills Bills
4 Dolphins Fins Fins Fins

Comment: No one saw a potential 16-0 Patriots season, and no one foresaw the Jets’ and Dolphins’ near-complete meltdowns.
From my fingers: “If QB JP Losman trends upward again, the Bills may surprise.” I was half right. Rookie QB Trent Edwards helped the Bills get on track.

AFC North

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me

1 Bengals Ravens Bengals Ravens
2 Ravens Bengals Ravens Bengals
3 Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
4 Browns Browns Browns Browns

Comment: No one even came close on this division. The Steelers were a mild surprise and the Browns were a huge one. As disappointing as the Bengals were, the Ravens’ fall from 13-3 to 4-11 is stunning.
From my fingers: “If anyone can get the football to TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards, (the Browns) might be on to something.” But I completely blew this: “I see more questions than answers with (the Steelers).”

AFC South

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me

1 Colts Colts Colts Colts
2 Titans Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
3 Jaguars Titans Titans Texans
4 Texans Texans Texans Titans

Comment: PFW and TSN nailed it. I liked Houston to be even more improved than it was, and I figured Tennessee could not overcome all of its offseason losses.
From my fingers: “As much as (Vince Young) runs with the ball, it's hard to imagine he won't get injured at some point, which would make the Titans one of the league's worst teams.” Well, they survived his injuries to contend for a playoff spot and prove me wrong.

AFC West

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me

1 Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
2 Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos
3 Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
4 Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders

Comment: The order was right, but everyone thought the Broncos would be a playoff team. Oops.
From my fingers: “If QB Jay Cutler improves and RB Travis Henry gets healthy, (Denver’s) offense will be high-powered. Stopping the run will be the barometer of the defense, perhaps ultimately the team's success.”

My playoff picks: New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, Denver, New York.
Actual: New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Jacksonville and either Cleveland or Tennessee.

NFC East

Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me

1 Eagles Eagles Cowboys Cowboys
2 Cowboys Cowboys Eagles Eagles
3 Giants Redskins Giants Redskins
4 Redskins Giants Redskins Giants

Comment: Allow me to gloat about the Cowboys and Redskins, but everyone overrated the Eagles and underrated the Giants.
From my fingers: “A (Giants) team that appears unsettled under Coach Tom Coghlin might come apart at the seems by midseason.” Actually, the Giants were coming together and playing very well at that point.

NFC North


Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me

1 Bears Bears Bears Bears
2 Packers Packers Packers Packers
3 Vikings Lions Vikings Vikings
4 Lions Vikings Lions Lions

Comment: No one saw the Packers’ rise to 12-3 and the Bears’ fall. The Vikings also rank as a surprise team.
From my fingers: “The Pack has no one, literally, to run the ball, and that will be their undoing. Had they kept Ahman Green or acquired a suitable replacement, they'd be a playoff team.” Meet Ryan Grant everyone.

NFC South


Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me

1 Saints Saints Saints Saints
2 Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers
3 Bucs Bucs Falcons Bucs
4 Falcons Falcons Bucs Falcons

Comment: This ranks with the AFC North as the surprise division. No one saw the Bucs’ comeback. The Saints probably weren’t as good as they appeared in 2006, nor as bad as they appeared early in 2007. TSN really blew this one – the Bucs last?
From my fingers: “The Panthers get (the No. 2) spot by default because I think the teams below them are horrible. Two years ago, Carolina looked like a budding dynasty, but now it appears to have a lot of holes.” Guess the Bucs weren’t so horrible.

NFC West


Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me

1 Seahawks Seahawks 49ers Seahawks
2 Rams 49ers Seahawks 49ers
3 49ers Rams Rams Rams
4 Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals

Comment:
The injury bug bit the Rams hard, but TSN again takes it on the chin here. Based upon this, the Cardinals have to rank as a surprise team.
From my fingers: “A fashionable pick as a division winner, the 49ers need three things to happen for that to become a reality: Alex Smith must continue to progress at QB (and do so despite his third coordinator in three seasons), RB Frank Gore must stay healthy (he was nicked in preseason and has a lengthy college injury history), and the Niners need some receivers to emerge.” Smith and Gore were hurt, and Smith is beginning to look like a bust.

My playoff teams: Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco
Actual: Dallas, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay, New York and either Washington, Minnesota or New Orleans.

Friday, December 21, 2007

NFL Week 16 preview

Who says there are no good matchups left this season?

Washington (7-7) at Minnesota (8-6) has NFC wild-card implications and is an elimination game for the Redskins.

The New York Giants (9-5) have to travel to Buffalo (7-7), where once-paralyzed Kevin Everrett is expected to be honored. A Giants loss and wins by New Orleans and Minnesota, and New York would face a must-win vs. the Patriots next Sunday.

Speaking of, the 14-0 Pats host the 1-13 Dolphins. So many story lines here. Undefeated season on the line against the last franchise to accomplish the feat. The presence of former New England coach and Bill Belichick mentor, Bill Parcells, in the Dolphins' front office. Then there is the weather factor.

The battle for NFC playoff positioning continues as well. Dallas has to bounce back on the road at Carolina and retain home-field advantage, while Green Bay looks to exact revenge on one of two teams - Chicago - that defeated it this season.

Seattle, Tampa Bay and San Diego are jockeying for the No. 3 spot in their respective conferences. Jacksonville, Cleveland and Tennessee are battling for AFC wild-card slots.

Upset specials:
I see three this week - I think Washington will beat Minnesota to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Vikings were not overly impressive in beating the Bears and have a shorter week. ... I think Houston will surprise Indianapolis, which will rest a lot of players as its locked into the AFC's No. 2 playoff spot. ... And San Francisco will upset visiting Tampa Bay.

Season record on upset picks:
7-8 and in quite a slump.

An Extra Helping of Tuna

Well, this didn't take very long.

Bill Parcells was masterful in playing the Dolphins against the Falcons this week, ultimately gaining more money and power in the process to run the entire Dolphins football operation less than one year than leaving his job as Cowboys coach.

This isn't the first time the Tuna has had a fishing expedition such as this. His record indicates two things - he won't stay long in Miami (lasted no more than four years in his past three NFL jobs), but the Dolphins will be in far better shape when he departs than when he arrived (all three teams - Patriots, Jets and Cowboys became playoff teams).

What that in mind, I'd like to take a look at the status of the coaches in the NFL. I expect more offseason turnover in the AFC than the NFC this year:

AFC
Baltimore - Yes, Brian Billick has won a Super Bowl, but that was six seasons ago, and the Ravens have lost eight in a row after a 4-10 start. The team is aging at several key positions and there are signs of dissension. This will be the second losing season in three years, wrapped around a 13-3 campaign that ended with a divisional-round playoff loss. It might be time for a change as the Ravens rebuild.
Buffalo - The Bills have overcome numerous injuries and free-agent losses to post a 7-7 record. Dick Jauron has done an excellent job.
Cincinnati - The Bengals have gone from 11 wins to eight to five in the past three seasons. Another team seemingly in disarray, Coach Marvin Lewis might pay.
Cleveland - Romeo Crennel has the Browns at 9-5 and in serious contention for a playoff spot. One more victory, and Cleveland will equal its total from the past two seasons.
Denver - Has the master lost his touch? After not winning fewer than nine games in the past five seasons, Mike Shanahan's Broncos have to win out just to hit seven Ws. More disturbing, they've gone from 13 to 9 to 5 in the win category in spite of annual retooling.
Houston - Year 2 of the Gary Kubiak era has gone well, showing improvement in wins (6 to 7 with two games left) and competitiveness. Keeping the skill position players healthy on offense should lead to further improvement.
Indianapolis - Tony Dungy has the Colts at 12-2 despite numerous injuries, free-agent losses and the Super Bowl champion's target.
Jacksonville - The Jags have bounced back under Jack Del Rio and could make a lot of noise in the playoffs as a wild-card. This team plays to its strengths (running, defense) as well as any. Plus, making the call to release QB Byron Leftwich and go with David Garrard was brilliant, albeit tough.
Kansas City - The Chiefs lost RB Larry Johnson to injury and struggled at QB, but four wins after making the playoffs last season and winning 19 games the past two seasons combined? I think Herm Edwards will get a third season, but it's debatable.
Miami - Cam Cameron has overseen a 1-13 disaster. With Parcells' entrance, I foresee a massive house cleaning.
New England - Bill Belichick can stay as long as he likes, particularly if the Pats go 19-0.
New York - In one season Eric Mangini has gone from "Man-genius" to "Oh Man!" as the Jets have fallen from 10-6 to 3-11. Still, it would be a mild surprise if he was shown the door.
Oakland - It's tough to tell if anything has improved under first-year coach Lane Kiffin. It's not thee 2-14 disaster of 2006, but I think the plan was to win more than four games and establish some semblance of an ascent. Frankly, I would not be shocked if the Raiders switched coaches again. The problem is their talent level is not as deep as they might have thought.
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin was an excellent hire, and the Steelers are heading back to the playoffs with a bit more balance on offense and their trademark defense.
San Diego - After a 1-3 start, the Chargers have hit their stride under Norv Turner, who took a lot of heat early. If the Bolts are healthy, they have the talent to make noise in the playoffs.
Tennessee - Year-in, year-out, the Titans play hard. They'll likely improve on last season's eight wins with middle-of-the-pack talent and could reach the playoffs. Jeff Fisher has reinforced to me that he's one of the best in the business.


NFC
Arizona - Racked by injuries to some of their best players (Matt Leinart, Adrian Wilson, Eric Green and Anquan Boldin), the Cardinals have been much more competitive under first-year coach Ken Whisenhunt.
Atlanta - It just keeps getting worse here. The next coach will have his work cut out for him.
Carolina - The Panthers need to win their final two games to match last season's 8-8 record. They're on their fourth QB of the season, but their defense has been more hit and miss than in the past. Still, John Fox seems safe.
Chicago - Lovie Smith has done a good job with a team that has shown a lot of vulnerabilities due to injuries, a shaky QB situation and some key free-agent losses (RB Thomas Jones and several D linemen).
Dallas - If the Cowboys don't at least reach the Super Bowl or other teams try to poach offensive coordinator to be their head coach, I could see owner Jerry Jones pulling the plug on Wade Phillips and naming Garrett coach.
Detroit - The Lions are improving under Rod Marinelli, but the losing culture that has been so prevalent still needs some overhauling. A 6-2 start has turned into 6-8.
Green Bay - The youngest team in the league has won 16 of its past 18 games since starting 4-8 under Mike McCarthy. Brett Favre looks better, the ground game is coming around and the defense and special teams are special.
Minnesota - Brad Childress has remained patient, stuck with his plan and it's paying off. Minnesota has won five in a row to pull into playoff contention and already has one more win than last season.
New Orleans - The reality is the Saints weren't as good as last season's NFC Championship Game appearance indicated and not as bas as their 0-4 start this season. Sean Payton has adjusted well in the face of injuries to his running backs.
New York - The Giants are picking a bad time of the season to get injured and play poorer. Anything less than a playoff spot and it's fairly certain Tom Coghlin is gone. Even if the G-men reach the playoffs and get smoked in the wild-card round he might be gone.
Philadelphia - Another team that has been hammered by injuries and QB controversies, the Eagles would be crazy to let Andy Reid or QB Donovan McNabb go in the offeseason.
St. Louis - The Rams have been hammered by injuries, too, but the amount of penalties and other mistakes they make indicate some coaching issues. They're going to finish with at least four fewer victories than last season's 8-8 squad, and most of their star players aside from Steven Jackson are hitting the age when a decline is possible. I don't like Scott Linehan's chances.
San Francisco - A lot of the momentum gained from last season's seven victories has been lost, again due in part to injuries at QB and RB. I don't know if this team is as bad as four wins, but it's certainly not a playoff team. Mike Nolan isn't going anywhere, but the 49ers have to improve - a lot - on offense to compete.
Seattle - The Seahawks again won the West, and they have the talent to win a few playoff games and maybe reach the Super Bowl. Mike Holmgren continues to do a very good job and not get a lot of recognition for it.
Tampa Bay - Like him or hate him, Jon Gruden has managed rebuild on the fly and win the South. The South is one of the worst divisions in football, but Tampa has gone from four wins to nine and could finish with 11.
Washington - Joe Gibbs' place is secure, but one wonders how much more he'll put up with. The Sean Taylor slaying rocked the team and the league. The past few editions of the Redskins have been up and down, not a description typically used with past Gibbs teams.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Cleaning up Week 15 in the NFL


Refreshing play of the week:
Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook stopping at the Dallas 1-yard line on a late run to ensure the Eagles could run out the clock and upset the Cowboys, rather than scoring and giving Dallas a slim chance of rallying.

Warrior of the week: Say what you will about the Dolphins this season, but Miami's Jason Taylor willed his team to win its first game. Taylor was all over the field, blocking a field goal, getting two sacks and playing every play as if it was his last during the Dolphins' overtime victory against the Ravens.

Stats of the week: Two of the top four scorers among kickers are rookies - Green Bay's Mason Crosby (first with 130 points) and Dallas' Nick Folk (fourth, 117). ... 11 running backs have topped 1,000 yards rushing thus far, and another 10 are 201 yards or fewer away from the milestone with two weeks to play. Last season, 23 backs topped a grand. ... 14 receivers have surpassed 1,000 yards, and nine more are 100 yards or fewer closer. In 2006, 19 players reached that plateau. Does anyone else see a trend here this season?

Fantasy fodder: Most fantasy football participants load up on running backs early in their drafts. That strategy was not as sound this season as in seasons past. Of the top 11 scorers among non-kickers, five are wide receivers, including Nos. 1, 4 and 5 (Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards).

Pro Bowl picks

The annual announcement of Pro Bowl selections serves as a good reminder of the role politics plays in that process.

Fan voting is equally weighted with coaches'and players' voting. So while the NFL likes to play up the fact that fans have a say in the process, the reality is coaches and peers have twice as much say.

Some interesting stats' from Tuesday's rosters for the Feb. 10 game:

The Dallas Cowboys, who have the NFL's second-best record (12-2) had 11 players selected. The 14-0 New England Patriots and the AFC West San Diego Chargers (9-5) had eight apiece.

However, the Indianapolis Colts (12-2), had just five players picked, while the Green Bay Packers, also 12-2, had four selections.

Contrast that with the Minnesota Vikings, who had seven players picked despite an 8-6 record and a questionable shot at making the playoffs.

At the other end of the scale, neither the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Bucs nor the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4), the wild-card team no one wants to face, had anyone selected.

Another oddity: the Chicago Bears, last in the NFC North, had four players picked.

Washington Redskins safety Sean Taylor, who died in late November after being shot during a robbery attempt at his Miami-area house, was voted to start at safety for the NFC. Taylor led the NFC in interceptions at the time of his death.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

NFL Week 15

The Christmas rush and a final project for school have hit this week, so it's an abbreviated (and nearly tardy) NFL preview. Look for more frequent postings this week.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Jaguars (9-4) at Steelers (9-4): Two tough, physical teams. Jacksonville will be without DT Marcus Stroud and MLB Mike Peterson, so look for Pittsburgh to run wild at home.

Bills (7-6) at Browns (7-6): Raise your hand if you saw this coming at the start of the season. This amounts to an elimination game for a wild-card spot in the AFC. The Browns' offense is impressive, but they'll have to figure out a way to contain Buffalo's rookie-led running attach.


GAMES OF THE WEAK:

Too many to mention. At one point this week, there were 10 games of points spreads of seven or more points. The league doesn't have parity, it has a lot of terrible teams this season.


UPSET OF THE WEEK:
Titans (7-6) at Chiefs (4-9): Kansas City can't keep losing at home, can it? Tennessee's injuries scare me, and I think the Chiefs are going to pound out a conservative victory and deal the Titans' playoff hopes a blow.

Season record on upset picks: 7-7

Friday, December 07, 2007

NFL Week 14 preview

It appears that it will take nine victories to have a shot at an NFC wild-card berth, and most likely 10 to make it in the AFC.

With four games remaining for all but Chicago and Washington (who played Thursday night), here is a glance at the playoff pictures in each conference.

NFC
Likely Division Winners (and an automatic playoff berth):
East - Dallas needs one win or one Giants loss. The Cowboys (11-1) have a strong inside track at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs after defeating Green Bay last week.
North - Green Bay needs a win or a tie and a Detroit loss or tie to clinch it. The Packers (10-2) can't get careless because Seattle (8-4) and Tampa Bay (8-4) are still two games back in the race for first-round bye.
South - Tampa Bay's victory over the Saints has it in the driver's seat. A win and combination of losses by the Saints and Panthers puts the Bucs in.
West - Seattle will win another weak division with a victory.

NFC wild-card race

8-4 - N.Y. Giants would have to completely implode to not make it. One victory and a combination of other teams' losses puts them in the postseason.
6-6 - Arizona Detroit, Minnesota ... The Cardinals are really banged up. Detroit has lost four in a row and has to face Dallas, San Diego, Kansas City and Green Bay still. ... Minnesota has come on, Adrian Peterson is seemingly healthy and all four of their remaining games are winnable. Vikings are the best bet.
6-7 - Washington. All the Redskins have to do is win at New York, at Minnesota and close the season by beating Dallas (which might not have much to play for in Week 17) at home. A very, very tall order.
5-7 - Carolina, New Orleans, Philadelphia. I'm not saying it couldn't happen for any of these teams, but the odds seem very long given the teams in the conference they've lost to.
Seasons done
Atlanta (3-9), Chicago (5-8), San Francisco (3-9), St. Louis (3-9)

AFC

Likely Division Winners
East - New England (12-0) has clinched it and barring three losses in four games will have home-field advantage.
South - Indianapolis (10-2) has a huge edge for the division title after its season sweep of Jacksonville. It must beware of Pittsburgh in the race for a first-round bye.
North - Pittsburgh (9-3) needs a victory or a Browns loss to lock it up.
West - San Diego (7-5) needs one victory and one Denver loss to clinch it, which is remarkable after how poorly the Chargers started.
Wild-card race
8-4 - Jacksonville - A very solid team with three very winnable games in their final four.
7-5 - Cleveland, Tennessee. This incarnation of the Browns has played poorly in December, but their schedule (Jets, Bills, Bengals and 49ers) isn't particularly imposing. The Titans not only have San Diego this Sunday and a visit to Kansas City next week, but close with a visit to Indianapolis, which could be playing for a bye. Having said that, the Titans have a better defense, and I like those sorts of teams when the weather turns bad.
6-6 - Buffalo. If either 7-5 team implodes, this is the team to watch for. After Miami, they visit Cleveland, host the Giants and visit Philadelphia. If they win the next two, they'll hold a tie-breaker over the Browns and might catch the banged-up Giants in a meaningless game for playoff position.
Seasons done
Miami (0-12), NY Jets (3-9), Oakland (4-8), Baltimore (4-8), Cincinnati (4-8), Houston (5-7), Denver (5-7)

GAME OF THE WEEK:

Pittsburgh (9-3) at New England (12-0): The obvious choice. Most experts predict this is the week the Patriots could lose after their less-than-stellar performances in Weeks 12-13. The big factor from my point of view will be the weather. If it's bad, the Steelers could pull it off. Pittsburgh certain fits the template for a team that could knock the Pats off their perch. I question if the Steelers can score enough to keep up, however.

GAME OF THE WEAK:
St. Louis (3-9) at Cincinnati (4-8): Injuries ruined the Rams' season, and few teams have been as disappointing as the Bengals (Chicago, New Orleans and Baltimore come to mind, however). It could be a fun game to watch given the explosive potential of the respective offenses.

Upset Special:
New York Jets (3-9) over Cleveland (7-5). I think the Jets' defense can stop or at least slow the Browns' attack, and I think the Jets will run at will on the Browns. The tipping point: the Jets are creating more turnovers of late, and the Browns have had a penchant for a lot of giveaways.

Upset Special Season Record: 7-6

Monday, December 03, 2007

NFL rewind

Thanks to a friend's generosity, I was able to watch every exciting play from every NFL game on Sunday. Or at least it seemed that way.

I was introduced to NFL Sunday Ticket's Red Zone Channel which updates every game in progress continuously. Much has been made of the eight-game "mix" that Sunday Ticket offers, but RZC is a far, far superior product because you get every highlight as it happens or shortly thereafter for hour upon hour. It's a beautiful thing. ...

What was Saints coach Sean Peyton thinking, calling a double-reverse late in the eventual loss to the Bucs? New Orleans held a 23-20 lead late in the fourth quarter, but Reggie Bush's fumbled exchange gave Tampa Bay the ball and eventually the game. The Bucs, by the way, are for real. They're physical, and Coach Jon Gruden game-planned masterfully for QB Luke McCown, who subbed for the ailing Jeff Garcia. ... The Saints' season is probably done. ...

What was Redskins coach Joe Gibbs thinking? His second time-out call to ice Bills kicker Rian Lindell with seconds left resulted in an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that all but ensured Buffalo would get the winning points on Lindell's field-goal attempt. Gibbs is a Hall of Famer, and his place in the game is secure, but this is the latest game management blunder in a season full of them. Yes, Washington has melted down in the second half numerous times this season, but many of its miscues are inexcusable, particularly for someone with Gibbs' resume. ...

It's time for the NFL, the richest U.S. sports league, to hire full-time officials. Not only are the officials missing calls, but even with instant replay, it certainly seems as if many are going uncorrected. Case in point, Cleveland's Hail Mary pass to Kellen Winslow on Sunday. After a fantastic catch on the final play, Winslow was forced out of the end zone yet that wasn't called, costing the Browns the game. Perhaps it's the stress of working during the week, then working all weekend, that's getting to the officials. Whatever the reason, it's a shame the officiating is sinking in a league with abundant resources to do something about it. ...

If you turn the ball over, you will lose. Turnovers again derailed the Eagles, they put the Browns down two scores early, the Packers down three scores early, they sank the Broncos' comeback hopes, and they left the 49ers with no chance to win.

College football quick kicks

Several things jumped out at me in the college football world during the past several days:

Has there ever been a worse college head coach than Bill Callahan? He consistently recruited top-10 classes at Nebraska, yet the Huskers' defense, once their calling card, was among the nation's worst. His pro-style offense never caught on, and its debatable the Huskers ever had the correct mix of personnel. Nebraska endured it's worst losing streak since the early 60s and absorbed beatings by Kansas, Missouri, Colorado and Oklahoma State that were virtually unparalleled in school history. But why stop there, the Oakland Raiders have been a shambles since Callahan had his hands on them. That's quite a resume - destroying one of college's most tradition-rich programs on the heels of sending one of the NFL's proudest and winningest franchises into a tailspin it's yet to recover from. ...

Hiring Bo Pelini, a former Huskers assistant and defensive expert, is a step in the right direction, but one wonders how long it will take him to un-do all the messes Callahan created, including alienating in-state prospects. ...

Frankly I don't know what BCS stands for anymore, but if you remove the "C" you're probably in the right zip code. If ever there was a season crying for a playoff (say eight teams), this is it. It doesn't matter which team, LSU or Ohio State, wins the "national championship" game, does anyone really know if those are the two best teams. The NCAA argues against a playoff by saying they're concerned about athletes playing more games. This from an organization that has signed off on the season expanding from 11 games to 12 or 13 in some cases. Simple solution guys: Cut the regular season to 11 games. Hold playoffs the final two Saturdays in December and the first Saturday night in January - college students are on break then anyway so the class time is a non-issue. Keep the traditional bowl games and restore conference affiliations, just put the top eight teams into a playoff aligned with seven "BCS" bowls. ...

UCLA's Karl Dorrell, fired as coach Monday, got a raw deal. Bob Toledo left the Bruins a mess on and off the field. Dorrell cleaned up the latter, guided UCLA to five consecutive bowl games and from all accounts had changed the culture around the program. He even managed to beat USC last season and spoil the Trojans' title hopes in the process. Apparently it wasn't enough. True, the Bruins talent level never approached USC's, but whose does most seasons? UCLA seems to be on the right track on a lot of fronts, too bad Dorrell won't be around to watch it. ...

Another nice job by ESPN reporting rumors on Saturday. This time it incurred the wrath of LSU coach Les Miles, who may or may not have been headed to Michigan to replace Lloyd Carr. On Sunday, analyst Kirk Herbstreit admitted he was wrong. Gee, maybe Sportscenter can lead with that. ...

Gearing up for Bowl Season and wondering what a team has to do to NOT get invited to a bowl these days.

Saturday, December 01, 2007

NFL Week 13 preview

What does the NFL season's final month hold? Will a team overcome a shaky first two-thirds of the season and rally for a playoff spot? Will a team that has started strong limp to the finish?

Here are some predictions of teams that could make a run and others that could fall flat and how that pertains to this week's games.

Moving up in the NFC
Philadelphia (5-6) - The Eagles' aggressive approach nearly knocked off the Patriots, and the guess here is they will continue that approach against Seattle on Sunday.
Chicago (5-6) - The Bears have to rely on Rex Grossman because RB Cedric Benson is injured. Is Chicago doomed? Maybe not. The Bears' pass rush is outstanding, they win games in the fourth quarter and they're not making the mistakes they made earlier in the season.

Moving down in the NFC

Detroit (6-5) - The Lions have lost three in a row, and the Vikings might well make that four on Sunday. Detroit can't run the ball, can't protect QB Jon Kitna and can't defend the pass. It won earlier in the season by dominating the turnover battle. That can't continue.
New York Giants (7-4) - Yup, the annual implosion is well underway, and injuries to their running backs and defense won't help. If the Giants' pass rush lets up at all, their secondary will be exposed. A loss to the Bears on Sunday would dent the Giants' attitude further and add to the heat on QB Eli Manning.

Moving up in the AFC

San Diego (6-5) - Yes, the Chargers have an inside track at winning the West, but at some point they have to figure out that getting the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson more is their wisest strategy. Two reasons for optimism - the defense has regained its teeth and should dominate a banged up Chiefs team, and WR Chris Chambers is beginning to make an impact on the offense.
Cleveland (7-4) - The Browns boast an explosive offense and a defense that is in the top-10 in takeaways. They're for real as a wild-card team, and if the Steelers stumble again (and they have the Patriots on deck), the Browns will be in the thick of the North title race.

Moving down in the AFC

Tennessee (6-5) - The Titans' defense has gone from dominating to sub-par in three weeks. Their ability to run the ball has seemingly vanished. And their final four games include matchups against the Chargers, Colts and Chiefs.
Denver (5-6) - The Broncos' loss at Chicago last Sunday was the type that can demoralize a team, particularly one that has been as inconsistent this season as Denver has. Three of their final five games are within the division, and the other two games appear winnable, but their inability to stop the run could be a problem vs. all five foes.

Game of the Week
Jacksonville (8-3) at Indianapolis (9-2) -
Playing at home and having an 11-day since their last game favors the Colts, who must set the tone early. If the game turns into a slowed-down slugfest, the Jaguars will have a good chance of grabbing a share of the AFC South lead.

Game of the Weak:
N.Y. Jets (2-9) at Miami (0-11) -
Is this the week the Dolphins finally win? Both teams are decimated by injuries, but Miami more so. They're on their third quarterback of the season, fourth running back and have been missing MLB Zach Thomas because of concussion-related headaches. Still, this is probably the Fins' best chance to win this season because the Jets are equally inept on offense and defense, ranking 30th in the league in both.

Upset Special, Part II: Yes, the elements were horrible on Monday night, but the Steelers nearly lost to a Miami team they have three times more talent than. Cincinnati is playing better, particularly on offense. I think the Bengals will win a shootout at Pittsburgh.
Season upset record: 7-5