NFL 2008: AFC predictions

Happy Labor Day weekend. All you NFL widows, enjoy it while you can because the nation's largest TV sport returns Thursday night.

I want to follow my preseason division-by-division breakdowns with my 2008 predictions, which I will revisit at the end of the year and compare with other experts' prognostications.

Each week during the NFL season I will preview a selection of upcoming games, usually on Thursday or Friday, and then recap the weekend's action upon its completion.

Without further ado ... my AFC predictions. Teams are listed in the order of finish with a comment following each.

AFC East
Overview: There is no question in my mind the Patriots will be Super Bowl contenders again, and they've won with less talented teams. I am tempted to place the Bills ahead of the Jets, but I do think Brett Favre and rebuilt lines will help the Jets. The Dolphins could be a very tough opponent by the end of the season.

1. New England: The offense will be unstoppable again, and adding RB LaMont Jordan was a smart move. If the secondary's new parts come together, this team will win 14 or 15 games again.
2. New York Jets: Favre helps, but G Alan Faneca and NT Kris Jenkins help at least as much. They need RB Thomas Jones to have a big year to have a shot at the playoffs.
3. Buffalo: Very good young talent all over the roster. RB Marshawn Lynch is the real deal, but now that the league has the book on QB Trent Edwards I'm curious how he does this season.
4. Miami: The talent level is better, the quarterbacking is way better thanks the Jets' gift of Chad Pennington, and I have a hunch RB Ricky Williams is going to be comeback player of the year.

AFC North
Overview: The Browns are the fashionable pick, but I wouldn't be stunned if they finish in third place. In terms of winning, Ben Roethlisberger is the best QB in this division, and isn't that what counts? Given that this team draws the NFC East this season, it's tough to imagine more than one playoff team coming from here as the four teams beat each other silly all season.

1. Pittsburgh: I like their defense. I think their passing game has a lot of upside with a maturing Santonio Holmes and rookie Limas Sweed. And they're deeper at running back with rookie Rashard Mendenhall. One issue is depth, so if injuries hit hard they'll drop.
2. Cleveland: Last season the Browns upgraded their offensive line. This past offseason it was the defense's turn with the addition of DE Corey Williams and DT Shaun Rodgers. The passing game should be strong, but what if Jamal Lewis breaks down? The back seven on defense is going to have generate a lot more turnovers and not be so porous vs. the pass for the Browns to play beyond December.
3. Cincinnati: This is a tough team for me to peg. Their defense should be better - it certainly has more talent and coordinator Mike Zimmer should make the most of it. QB Carson Palmer has to take better care of the ball and his WR core has to get healthy. Don't be surprised to see Chris Perry replace Rudi Johnson at RB.
4. Baltimore: The defense, despite some age and injury concerns at corner, should be solid. But if RB Willis McGahee is injured, it won't matter. It's tough to see how they can win with any of their quarterbacks and a very suspect receiving group.

AFC South
Overview: Can anyone end the Colts' run of five consecutive division titles? I think so. Indy has a lot of injury concerns, and as the playoffs demonstrated, they're not deep enough withstand overly physical teams. If Jacksonville's receiving core steps up, look out, the Jags seemingly have everything else in place. Jeff Fisher could be coach of the year most seasons for the job he does with the Titans, who again seem to have some holes, especially on offense. The Texans are cursed to be in the conference's toughest division.

1. Jacksonville: The Jags had a chance to take the Patriots out in the playoffs, and with a bit more balance on offense, they could do it this season. Excellent running game and solid turnover margin are usually a winning formula.
2. Indianapolis: Manning, Freeney, Harrison, Sanders - not names one likes to see on the injury report, but all of them will be there to start the season. If the Colts get off to a blazing start it could go a long way to proving that preseason is meaningless. I don't see the Colts having the depth to hold up against a tough schedule.
3. Tennessee: This is a key season for this franchise - either Vince Young is the answer at quarterback or he isn't. The defense will be stout, and the Titans could have a very good one-two punch at running back in LenDale White and Chris Johnson.
4. Houston: The Texans are improving, and they might shock me and leap into third in the division and challenge for a playoff spot. However, they have some secondary issues and need some bounce-back years from RBs Ahman Green and Chris Brown to take the heat off of the passing game.

AFC West
Overview: The Chargers are primed for a Super Bowl run. The key for them is making it through the playoffs healthy. That might have been the difference between them knocking off New England in last season's conference championship game. The Raiders have a lot of young talent in their backfield on all over their defense, and they've been so bad for so long they're going to catch some teams sleeping. I expect the Broncos' slide to continue, and the Chiefs are too young to make much noise this year, but blowing it up was the right approach.

1. San Diego: If TE Antonio Gates is healthy, look out. The offense should score in bunches. The defense is loaded, too, though the situation with LB Shawn Merriman's knee is worrisome.
2. Oakland: My surprise team pick. Yes, the offensive line might be sub par and QB JaMarcus Russell is going to be up and down, but this team has a ton of talent, and if their defense can stop the run better, watch out.
3. Denver: The Broncos have problems on both lines, some holes in the middle of the defense, and who will run the ball? QB Jay Cutler should move into the echelon just below Manning and Brady this season.
4. Kansas City: A lot of good young talent and a healthy Larry Johnson will be cause for optimism. But the Chiefs have the NFL's worst quarterback situation and a bad offensive line, which is a shame because TE Tony Gonzalez is an elite player and WR Dwayne Bowe could develop into one.

Playoff teams: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, San Diego, Indianapolis and either Jets or Bills.

NFL 2008 predictions, part I

The Magazines have spoken, at least the ones that I trust, about the 2008 NFL season. What follows are their projections for the upcoming season, which kicks off in a week.

Pro Football Weekly (which joined forces with CBSSports.com) predicts New England beating Dallas in the Super Bowl.
Here is its division-by-division breakdown:
AFC East
1. New England; 2. Buffalo; 3. NY Jets; 4. Miami
AFC North
1. Cleveland; 2. Pittsburgh; 3. Cincinnati; 4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Houston; 4. Tennessee
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Oakland; 4. Kansas City
NFC East
1. Dallas; 2. NY Giants; 3. Philadelphia; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Green Bay; 2. Minnesota; 3. Chicago; 4. Detroit
NFC South
1. New Orleans; 2. Carolina; 3. Tampa Bay; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. Arizona; 3. St. Louis; 4. San Francisco

Analysis: I wonder about Cleveland and Green Bay winning their divisions, and there are some orders of division picks that I question.

The Sporting News, which merged with Street and Smith's, sees the Chargers defeating Dallas in the Super Bowl.
AFC East
1. New England; 2. NY Jets; 3. Buffalo; 4. Miami
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh; 2. Cincinnati; 3. Cleveland; 4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Tennessee; 4. Houston
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Kansas City; 4. Oakland
NFC East
1. Dallas; 2. NY Giants; 3. Philadelphia; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Green Bay; 2. Chicago; 3. Minnesota; 4. Detroit
NFC South
1. New Orleans; 2. Tampa Bay; 3. Carolina; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. St. Louis; 3. Arizona; 4. San Francisco

Analysis: Of the three, this is the most solid to me with a few exceptions. I don't see the Rams or Bengals finishing nearly that high or the Vikings that low.

And Sports Illustrated foresees New England defeating Philadelphia in the Super Bowl
AFC East
1. New England; 2. NY Jets; 3. Buffalo; 4. Miami
AFC North
1.Pittsburgh; 2. Cleveland; 3. Baltimore; 4. Cincinnati
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Tennessee; 4. Houston
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Kansas City; 4. Oakland
NFC East
1. Philadelphia; 2. Dallas; 3. NY Giants; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Minnesota; 2. Green Bay; 3. Detroit; 4. Chicago
NFC South
1. Tampa Bay; 2. Carolina; 3. New Orleans; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. Arizona; 3. San Francisco; 4. St. Louis

Analysis: Every season SI should preface Dr. Z's picks by disclosing his heavy East Coast bias. How else does one explain the Eagles winning the NFC East over Dallas? Putting Tennessee in the playoffs again this year seems a reach to me, too.

Consensus division winners:
AFC East - New England
AFC South - Indianapolis
AFC West - San Diego
NFC West - Seattle
Other consensus playoff teams - NY Giants, Jacksonville, Dallas.

Coming up: My AFC and NFC breakdowns and predictions

Taking a Look at the NFC West

This is the last in a series of preseason looks at each NFL division.

Teams listed in alphabetical order

ARIZONA CARDINALS

2007 Record: 8-8

The Forecast: Partly Sunny

The Cardinals took some positive steps under rookie coach Ken Whisenhunt in 2007, but questions still exist. Arizona must improve its running game (29th), particularly if one or both of its QBs (Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner) go down to injury again. The run defense was solid, but the pass defense left a lot to be desired (28th). The Cardinals drafted CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the first round and should have S Adrian Wilson healthy, which will help. Wilson drives the birds' defense.

It Will Be A Cold Winter in the Desert If: The Cardinals can't cut way down on their mistakes (penalties and turnovers) and Leinart fails to develop as hoped.

ST. LOUIS RAMS

2007 Record: 3-13

The Forecast: Mostly Cloudy

Who would have thought the Rams defense (21st) would finish ranked higher than the offense (24th)? That's what happened as injuries tore the offensive line apart, and kept QB Marc Bulger running for his life. One bright spot was RB Steven Jackson, who despite missing five games with injuries topped 1,000 yards. WR Torry Holt overcame knee problems to post yet another 1,000-yard season. The Rams are building a good defensive line with first-round pick Chris Long joining last season's No. 1, Adam Carriker, but the back seven other than LB Will Witherspoon is below average.

There Will Be Trouble in River City If: Jackson's holdout lasts much longer, and the offensive line can't protect Bulger.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

2007 Record: 5-11

The Forecast: Partly Cloudy, perhaps some sun at times

The 49ers again invested heavily in improving their defense, adding free-agent DE Justin Smith and drafting DT Kentwan Balmer. That should help a very good set of linebackers, led by Patrick Willis and Manny Lawson. The real problem by the Bay was a lack of offense. The 49ers had the league's worst - statistically - and despite the signings of WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson, it's tough to see the passing game improving unless a QB emerges and RB Frank Gore returns to his 2006 form.

Even Montana or Young Might Not Be Able to Save the Niners If: All their high-priced talent on defense doesn't start playing like it, the running game doesn't re-emerge and nobody catches the ball.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

2007 Record: 10-6

The Forecast: Mostly sunny, some clouds possible

How will things work out now that Coach Mike Holmgren has announced this is final season? The Seahawks' opportunistic defense has elite players in every position group, and it is stacked at linebacker. Seattle's formula was simple - create turnovers and pressure quarterbacks, and it worked well until the playoffs. The offense is in good hands with QB Matt Hasselbeck, but whom will he throw to? WRs Bobby Engram and Deion Branch are hurt and DJ Hackett left as a free agent. Also gone is RB Shaun Alexander, replaced by the trio of Julius Jones, TJ Duckett and Maurice Morris. It is not unprecedented for a Holmgren-coached team to have success with a RB-by-committee approach (see Green Bay 1996).

Expect It To Pour If: No one emerges at WR and the revamped running game can't generate enough yards to keep defenses honest.

Coming up: Season predictions by conference and division. Once the regular season begins, I will resume my weekly previews and recaps.

Taking a Look at the NFC South

Teams listed in alphabetical order.

ATLANTA FALCONS
2007 record: 4-12
The forecast: Mostly cloudy
Look up overhaul in the dictionary and the Falcons' logo should appear. They have a new coach (Mike Smith), new QB (rookie Matt Ryan), new RB (Michael Turner) and new K (Jason Elam). The team got rid of virtually every veteran on its roster, including CB DeAngelo Hall, TE Algie Crumpler, RB Warrick Dunn, LB Demorrio Williams and DT Rod Coleman. Yes, the Falcons had a good draft, but they have a long way to go in what should be a competitive division.
The Temperature Will Rise in Hot-lanta If: The offensive line doesn't improve (it allowed nearly 50 sacks and fewer than 100 yards rushing per game), someone doesn't step up to replace all the departed playmakers on defense and Turner stumbles in his first crack at a starting job.

CAROLINA PANTHERS
2007 record: 7-9
The forecast: Partly cloudy, some sun possible
The Panthers' 2007 season essentially ended when QB Jake Delhomme was lost for the season with an elbow injury. Carolina's passing game was nearly non-existent after that, despite the presence of WR Steve Smith (who has been suspended for the team's first two games because of a training camp fight). This is a pivotal season in Carolina. The Panthers' record has declined two seasons in a row, and their usually reliable defense did not generate sacks or turnovers last season at its typical pace.
Carolina Will Be Blue All Over If: Delhomme isn't healthy, the offensive line doesn't gel and the defensive line can't bring the heat.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
2007 record: 7-9
The forecast: Mostly sunny
An 0-4 start and a season-ending knee injury to RB Deuce McAllister left the Saints reeling in '07. McAllister should be back, meaning RB Reggie Bush can be more of situational back, which seems to be the role he excels in. Adding TE Jeremy Shockey via trade and a young fleet of receivers give QB Drew Brees plenty of targets. The Saints also shored up their front seven on defense by adding DT Sedrick Ellis in the draft, trading for LB Jonathan Vilma and signing LB Dan Morgan. The real question is will the secondary improve - the Saints were 30th in pass defense and managed just 13 picks.
More Blues on Bourbon Street If: McAllister has lost it and the ground game suffers again, and the pass defense remains pourous.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
2007 record: 9-7
The forecast: Mostly sunny
The Bucs rode an efficient offense and a solid defense, particularly against the pass, to a playoff berth for the second time in three seasons. This came despite the potential career-ending injury suffered by RB Carnell Williams. Earnest Graham emerged in Williams' place, and Warrick Dunn returned. QB Jeff Garcia was accurate and largely mistake-free, and he needed to be given the lack of playmaking targets outside of ageless WR Joey Galloway. Both of the Bucs' lines are young, deep and talented, and the other defensive position groups are well-stocked.
The Pirate Ship Will Sink If: Garcia gets hurt or is adversely affected by the team's reported pursuit of Brett Favre and no playmakers emerge on offense.

Next: NFC West

Greener pastures for Favre?

This morning it hit me - for the first time since 1992 Brett Favre will not suit up for the Green Bay Packers.

Yes, he "retired" in March, but the drama of the past few weeks had led me to believe - quite incorrectly - that he would be back with the Pack in 2008. I wrote as much a couple of days ago, going so far as to predict that Favre's return to the team would mean the end of the Aaron Rodgers era before it even got started. I was very wrong and apologies to Mr. Rodgers for that speculation.

Now that Favre is a Jet, I'd like to analyze the deal and what it means for all parties involved.

1. For the Jets:
They get a quarterback who is a proven winner and has a big arm. In recent days, Favre has seemed motivated to play this season, and the Jets restocked their lines during free agency. Much talk since the deal was reported has centered on their playoff possibilities.
Now the bad news. Favre will be 39 in October, he has a history of struggling in New York, and he not only must learn a new offense, but he has to adjust to a completely new set of teammates, and he goes from the NFL's smallest market to the center of its media universe.

For Favre:
He gets his wish. He is out of Green Bay and gets to play football this season. However, he can't be happy with how all of this has unfolded. If anything it's short-term relief, at least until he discovers that the Jets' receiving core is not nearly as talented as the one he left, and the media glare in the Big Apple is 10 times brighter than in Wisconsin. He will help the Jets, but he left a far more talented team.
His desire to "stick it" to the Packers this season could only be accomplished in the Super Bowl, something I view as highly unlikely for either team at this point.

For the Packers:
General Manager Ted Thompson and Coach Mike McCarthy will be judged, fair or not, by whether Aaron Rodgers can not only return the Packers to the playoffs but win some games. And Favre's success or lack thereof in New York also factors into it. Thompson has stakes his career on this. But is it fair to judge him on this alone? Yes, he didn't show much flexibility or compassion, but since he arrived in Wisconsin as GM he has had a single-minded approach to build a longterm winner. The Packers' depth and talent levels have improved dramatically the past two seasons, and if Rodgers pans out (or one of the rookie QBs behind him does), Green Bay should be a playoff team for years to come. ...
McCarthy is the one person in this entire process who impressed me. He stood in the middle of the storm day after day, answered questions honestly, he had the fortitude to ask Favre the tough questions without being threatening about it, and he kept the well-being of his team ahead of the well-being of one player. ...
The Packers also gain a conditional draft choice that should at least turn into a third-rounder, and if the Jets reach the playoffs and Favre plays more than three quarters of their offensive snaps (not a stretch), could become a second. That is a decent return for a player whose career was thought to be over five months ago. ...
For the Packers players, especially Rodgers, this is closure. They can return to the business of preparing for the upcoming season, which really is what training camp should be all about.

For the rest of the league:
The NFL couldn't be happier to have both a Super Bowl Champion and the league's most recognizable player both in New York City. And I would not be shocked if the league itself played a role in facilitating this deal given the commissioner's early involvement with Favre and the Packers. Yes, conspiracy theory, but it wouldn't surprise me given how all of this has played out. ...
The AFC East becomes a bit more interesting, though I question whether the Jets will challenge the Patriots for the division title. The Jets are helped by an easy schedule, but anything more than a 9-7 record would shock me. I don't know if 9-7 gets New York into the AFC playoffs or not. ...
The NFC North will be more competitive as well. However, it should be noted the Packers lost to the Bears twice with Favre last season, and the Vikings still have question marks at quarterback and in the secondary.

Favre: Who's the Boss?

The summer drama that has been Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers took another turn Sunday when it was reported the legendary quarterback is returning to the team Monday and likely will participate in practice as soon as Tuesday.

What forced the Packers to have a change in heart to welcome Favre back?

The possibility of having their most popular player in another uniform might have finally been too much for the Packers braintrust to stomach. Perhaps Favre told them he would play more than one season (more on this in a bit), thus ending the annual offseason game of cat and mouse.

What role did their inability to trade him play in this?

There is a saying that sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make. Trading Favre to another NFC team such as the Bucs would have been bad, to an intra-division rival such as the Bears or Vikings disastrous, and in the Badger State, unforgivable. There is no question the Packers wanted to trade Favre at some point, however their reported demands also made it clear they preferred he just stayed retired.

What role did Favre play in this, meaning did he state unwaveringly that he wants to play football?

My guess, and it's only that, is he agreed to play more than one season if the Packers took him back. He clearly wants to play football, and he clearly wants to win another Super Bowl. He's never wavered from that latter statement. Favre forced the Packers' hand by saying he'd only accept a trade to Minnesota, which would be completely unacceptable to GM Ted Thompson, demoralizing to the Packers players and the end of the world for a vast majority of Packers fans.

What does this mean for Aaron Rodgers?

Probably the end of his Packers career. There is no question in my mind that Favre will beat him out for the starting job. No matter how it's couched, Rodgers can't be happy, and he will walk when his rookie contract expires after the 2009 season. Barring a Favre injury, I doubt Rodgers will play much more this season than in years past.

And what about the Packers chances this season?

On some level, the Packers management team must believe they're very close to winning a Super Bowl, and I don't think anyone believes Rodgers will give them a better chance this season than Favre. Assuming Favre is fit and healthy, he still has more than a month to prepare for the regular season. The Packers' signing of Ryan Grant over the weekend helps, and reports on the team's scrimmage Sunday night said the secondary looks vastly improved. So the Packers will be one of the NFC's better teams, but I don't know if they can overcome Dallas or New York, both of which I anticipate being better this season.

What about the future?

If Favre plays this season, the Packers probably will look to prepare second-round draft choice Brian Brohm and/or seventh-round pick Matt Flynn to take over for Favre. If Favre has committed to two more seasons, and I suspect he has, then it would not surprise me to see the Packers trade Rodgers at the draft next spring.

But, like everyone else, I'm getting ahead of myself. Four and a half more weeks until the season starts.

Taking a Look at the NFC North

Teams listed in alphabetical order.

CHICAGO BEARS
2007 record: 7-9
The Forecast: Partly sunny with some clouds
Can a team win with a potentially great defense and a likely marginal offense? Aside from rookie RB Matt Forte and second-year TE Greg Olson, the Bears' offense lacks playmakers. Re-signing LB Lance Briggs and keeping S Mike Brown, CB Nathan Vasher and DTs Tommie Harris and Dusty Dvoraceck healthy could usher in another dominant Bears defense.
That Won't Be Wind Howling If: The Bears don't get something from their passing game and the middle part of the defense can't stay healthy.

DETROIT LIONS
2007 record: 7-9
The Forecast: Cloudy, with a chance of sun
The defense needed a lot of help, and that is what the Lions addressed in free agency and somewhat in the draft. None of the position groups stand out, though DT Cory Redding has Pro Bowl ability and LB Ernie Sims is not far behind. Subtracting DT Shaun Rodgers and adding CB Leigh Bodden were good moves. The passing game could be special with WRs Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams, but who will run the ball?
Look for More Layoffs in Detroit If: The Lions don't show significant improvement and at least contend for a playoff spot.

GREEN BAY PACKERS
2007 record: 13-3
The Forecast: Sun mixed with possible storms
After a surprisingly promising 2007 season ended on a sour note in the NFC Championship game, the news has gone from bad to worse in the land of wholesome dairy products. First QB Brett Favre retired, then shortly before camp started he decided not to retire. Compounding matters has been the club's stance that they've moved on to Aaron Rodgers as their QB. But enough of that. The Packers have rebuilt a lot of depth through the past three drafts, and it's become apparent they might have the deepest group of WRs in the league. They're strong on the lines and at linebacker as well. If RB Ryan Grant's holdout ends soon, their ground game is in good hands. If not, Rodgers will have another tough hand to play. The defense needs better safety play and a return to health at the DT spot, otherwise it's very solid.
Cheeseheads Will Melt If: Favre plays for another team, Grant has a lengthy holdout, Rodgers can't justify the team's faith in him or injuries, which the Packers largely avoided in '07, hit this time around.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
2007 record: 8-8
The Forecast: Partly sunny
A popular choice as a playoff contender, the Vikings turned over significant parts of their roster in hopes of upgrading their pass defense and passing game. WR Bernard Berrian has the speed the Vikings have lacked since saying good-bye to Randy Moss, but he's nowhere near the caliber of player Moss is. S Madieu Williams will help the secondary, but unless another newcomer, DE Jared Allen, massively upgrades the pass rush, teams might still be able to exploit Minnesota's secondary. The running game offers no such worries with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor giving the Vikings the top 1-2 combination in the league. The offensive improvement will hinge on QB Tavaris Jackson's improvement, and he has the tools to do so.
The 10,000 Lakes Might Freeze Early If: Jackson regresses, Peterson gets hurt or the high-priced talent that was brought in doesn't live up their contracts.

Next: The NFC South