Stop me if this sounds familiar.
A U.S. team from a "non-traditional" hockey market battles a Canadian-based team for the Stanley Cup.
That's been the formula for the past three Finals, with Tampa Bay beating Calgary in 2004, Carolina topping Edmonton in 2006 and Anaheim meeting Ottawa this time around.
And it says here this series, just like the past two Finals, also will go seven games.
What to like about the Ducks: J.S. Giguere took out arguably two of the best goalies in the league this past season in the Western Conference semifinals and finals (Vancouver's Roberto Luongo and Detroit's Dominik Hasek). The Ducks responded to a lot of adversity in the Red Wings series, turning a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 series victory and surviving the suspension of defenseman Chris Pronger in the process. Pronger, Scott Niedermayer, Sean O'Donnell and Francois Beauchemin are a formidable top-four on defense. Center Ryan Getzlaf is becoming a dominant player, and Ilya Bryzgalov is as good a backup netminder as there is in the league.
Cover your eyes Ducks fans: If they take too many penalties, which has been a problem all season and throughout the playoffs. It nearly cost them against Detroit, and Ottawa's special teams might be even better. ... If they suffer any more injuries. Losing F Chris Kunitz hurt, and Niedermayer clearly is ailing.
What to like about the Senators: Top-to-bottom their defense is deeper than the Ducks. Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov are a shut-down pair, while Wade Redden and Tom Preissing offer plenty of offense. Goalie Ray Emery is keeping his emotions in check and emerging as a force (his numbers compare favorably with Giguere's). The top line of Dany Heatley-Daniel Alfredsson-Jason Spezza has been the best line in the playoffs and will cause fits for the Ducks. The Sens' scoring depth is also more balanced than the Ducks.
Don't look now Senators fans: The Ducks' power play will make Ottawa pay for taking penalties. If the Sens come home down 2-0, they're in trouble because Anaheim has proven it can and will win on the road. If the series turns physical, the Ducks rate a big advantage.
And the winner is: Sorry Canada, the Ducks are going to win in six or seven. Giguere is a more sound and experienced goalie than Emery, Pronger and Niedermayer can control the flow of games and the Ducks' physical play will wear out Ottawa, which has faced fewer challenges and nothing close to this caliber of hitting from Pittsburgh, New Jersey or Buffalo.
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Padres and Brewers and Cubbies (Oh My!)
Caught my first live Major League Baseball of the season this past week at the scenic home of the San Diego Padres and came away with the following impressions of the three teams I watched over consecutive nights.
The hometeam Padres are winning, but beyond their starting pitching it's tough to see that continuing in large doses.
First the good news - the starting pitching for San Diego is good. Chris Young was outstanding in a no-decision against the Chicago Cubs. Seven innings, three hits, one run, 10 strikeouts and one walk. And to think the Rangers traded this guy AND first baseman Adrian Gonzalez in the SAME DEAL. Greg Maddux was decent the next night against Milwaukee until he ran into trouble in the sixth. Now the bad news, the Padres' bullpen lost the game against the Cubs and nearly blew a five-run lead for Maddux the next night.
San Diego also suffers from a lack of offense, especially in the outfield. Jose Cruz Jr. is OK, Mike Cameron is excellent in center field but hitting about .220 with little power and Termell Sledge, he of fun name but no pop, is just minding the store in left until Brian Giles returns. The Padres need to acquire another hitter to stay at or near the top of the NL West.
The Brew Crew (disclaimer here, this is the beloved team of my youth and my mid-life) is a minor surprise as the leaders of the NL Central. And Milwaukee is doing it the old-fashioned way - with the home run. In the tradition of Bambi's Bombers and Harvey's Wallbangers, the Brewers lead the league in dingers, with shortstop JJ Hardy and first baseman Prince Fielder topping the NL charts.
In terms of young talent, particularly in the infield, it's tough to not like the Brewers. Hardy leads the NL in homers and RBI with an average north of .300 and excellent range in the field. Fielder is right behind him in the power departments and is improving in the field. Third baseman Ryan Braun added two RBI and a hit in his MLB debut, and second baseman Rickie Weeks did what a leadoff hitter should, get on base and advance. Right fielder Gabe Gross was a revelation - he hit it hard every time up.
Milwaukee's problem appears to be its pitching, particularly if Ben Sheets can't stay healthy. Dave Bush struggled all night against the Padres, and a five-run fifth staked San Diego to an insurmountable 7-0 lead. Free-agent acquisition Jeff Suppan and holdovers Claudio Vargas and Chris Capuano have been all right, but they have to be better for Milwaukee to entertain playoff aspirations. The good news here is the staff as a whole doesn't walk a lot of hitters.
The Cubs spent a small fortune during free agency (OK, actually quite a large fortune in the offseason) and sit seven games out in a very winnable NL Central. LF Alphonso Soriano helps, and they've got good power at the corners in 1B Derrek Lee and 3B Aramis Ramirez, but beyond that there are some holes in their batting order, too, particularly in the outfield where Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd don't appear to have much left in the tank. Floyd at least offers some pop, but his defense and overall interest appear suspect.
Starting pitcher Jason Marquis was good, and the bullpen was very good, so there could be some hope on Chicago's North Side.
The hometeam Padres are winning, but beyond their starting pitching it's tough to see that continuing in large doses.
First the good news - the starting pitching for San Diego is good. Chris Young was outstanding in a no-decision against the Chicago Cubs. Seven innings, three hits, one run, 10 strikeouts and one walk. And to think the Rangers traded this guy AND first baseman Adrian Gonzalez in the SAME DEAL. Greg Maddux was decent the next night against Milwaukee until he ran into trouble in the sixth. Now the bad news, the Padres' bullpen lost the game against the Cubs and nearly blew a five-run lead for Maddux the next night.
San Diego also suffers from a lack of offense, especially in the outfield. Jose Cruz Jr. is OK, Mike Cameron is excellent in center field but hitting about .220 with little power and Termell Sledge, he of fun name but no pop, is just minding the store in left until Brian Giles returns. The Padres need to acquire another hitter to stay at or near the top of the NL West.
The Brew Crew (disclaimer here, this is the beloved team of my youth and my mid-life) is a minor surprise as the leaders of the NL Central. And Milwaukee is doing it the old-fashioned way - with the home run. In the tradition of Bambi's Bombers and Harvey's Wallbangers, the Brewers lead the league in dingers, with shortstop JJ Hardy and first baseman Prince Fielder topping the NL charts.
In terms of young talent, particularly in the infield, it's tough to not like the Brewers. Hardy leads the NL in homers and RBI with an average north of .300 and excellent range in the field. Fielder is right behind him in the power departments and is improving in the field. Third baseman Ryan Braun added two RBI and a hit in his MLB debut, and second baseman Rickie Weeks did what a leadoff hitter should, get on base and advance. Right fielder Gabe Gross was a revelation - he hit it hard every time up.
Milwaukee's problem appears to be its pitching, particularly if Ben Sheets can't stay healthy. Dave Bush struggled all night against the Padres, and a five-run fifth staked San Diego to an insurmountable 7-0 lead. Free-agent acquisition Jeff Suppan and holdovers Claudio Vargas and Chris Capuano have been all right, but they have to be better for Milwaukee to entertain playoff aspirations. The good news here is the staff as a whole doesn't walk a lot of hitters.
The Cubs spent a small fortune during free agency (OK, actually quite a large fortune in the offseason) and sit seven games out in a very winnable NL Central. LF Alphonso Soriano helps, and they've got good power at the corners in 1B Derrek Lee and 3B Aramis Ramirez, but beyond that there are some holes in their batting order, too, particularly in the outfield where Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd don't appear to have much left in the tank. Floyd at least offers some pop, but his defense and overall interest appear suspect.
Starting pitcher Jason Marquis was good, and the bullpen was very good, so there could be some hope on Chicago's North Side.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Does the draft matter anymore, Part II
The NHL is one of, if not the toughest, of leagues to follow on draft day unless you are a complete hockey fanatic. The reasons are two-fold. First, the league is drafting 18-year-olds to play in a league that demands physical and emotional maturity, so the timeline for projecting players' ceilings is tricky. And second, the NHL truly is an international league. Last season, nearly one-third of its players hailed from outside North America and Canadian players comprised barely half of its players.
Examing the most successful franchises during the past decade or so reveals some interesting trends. Clubs that I would classify as having sustained success during this time period are Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado and Dallas.
The Red Wings are gunning for their fourth Stanley Cup in the past decade, and they've been largely built through extremely astute drafting. Players such as Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Holmstrom and Pavel Datsyuk all were Wings picks, and many of them were mid-to-low round selections. Detroit won its Cups with three different goaltenders: Mike Vernon (acquired in trade), Chris Osgood (drafted) and Dominik Hasek (free agency). And the franchise has done a good job adding key components through trades (Mathieu Schneider, Chris Chelios, Todd Bertuzzi, Kyle Calder). The Wings also have a talent for resurrecting players' careers after other teams gave up on them (Andreas Lilja, Larry Murphy, Kris Draper, Kirk Maltby, Dan Cleary). Chief among Detroit's talents has been mining Europe for star talent at bargain prices. This combination has made them one of the league's model franchises in terms of personnel.
The Devils also have drafted extremely well (Scott Niedermayer, Martin Brodeur, Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Patrik Elias, Ken Daneyko to name a few), and their acquisition of Scott Stevens through an NHL loophole when St. Louis signed Brendan Shanahan in the early 90s set the tone for the franchise. Like the Red Wings, New Jersey was quick to identify and sign European players who could help them, though the Devils have largely been built on North Americans, particularly U.S. college propects in the past 4-5 years.
The Avalanche reaped the rewards of many high draft choices when the franchise was in Quebec (Joe Sakic, Mats Sundin, Owen Nolan, Eric Lindros). Through trades they turned the disgruntled Lindros into Peter Forsberg and a host of other players. Nolan brought defenseman Sandis Ozolinsh, who was a key to their 1996 Cup. Other draft choices of note include Adam Foote, Adam Deadmarsh, Chris Drury and Milan Hejduk. Deadmarsh helped them trade for defenseman Rob Blake, who along with Ray Bourque helped the Avs win a second Cup in 2001. So drafting combined with shrewd trading laid the foundation for the Avs' success.
The Stars' foundation also came through the draft, with players such as Mike Modano, Marty Turco, Jere Lehtinen and Derian Hatcher being draft picks. However, Dallas also made more liberal use of free agency than other year-in, year-out contenders, obtaining Brett Hull and Ed Belfour that way, to spark their 1999 Cup win. Aside from dealing for Sergei Zubov in the late 90s, the Stars typically use trades to fill out their depth and add key role players.
In all four examples, the draft was very important to these teams' sustained success, and teams such as Detroit and New Jersey, which have resisted the temptation to deal their prospects, have reaped the biggest reward - each winning three Cups since 1995.
Examing the most successful franchises during the past decade or so reveals some interesting trends. Clubs that I would classify as having sustained success during this time period are Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado and Dallas.
The Red Wings are gunning for their fourth Stanley Cup in the past decade, and they've been largely built through extremely astute drafting. Players such as Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Holmstrom and Pavel Datsyuk all were Wings picks, and many of them were mid-to-low round selections. Detroit won its Cups with three different goaltenders: Mike Vernon (acquired in trade), Chris Osgood (drafted) and Dominik Hasek (free agency). And the franchise has done a good job adding key components through trades (Mathieu Schneider, Chris Chelios, Todd Bertuzzi, Kyle Calder). The Wings also have a talent for resurrecting players' careers after other teams gave up on them (Andreas Lilja, Larry Murphy, Kris Draper, Kirk Maltby, Dan Cleary). Chief among Detroit's talents has been mining Europe for star talent at bargain prices. This combination has made them one of the league's model franchises in terms of personnel.
The Devils also have drafted extremely well (Scott Niedermayer, Martin Brodeur, Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Patrik Elias, Ken Daneyko to name a few), and their acquisition of Scott Stevens through an NHL loophole when St. Louis signed Brendan Shanahan in the early 90s set the tone for the franchise. Like the Red Wings, New Jersey was quick to identify and sign European players who could help them, though the Devils have largely been built on North Americans, particularly U.S. college propects in the past 4-5 years.
The Avalanche reaped the rewards of many high draft choices when the franchise was in Quebec (Joe Sakic, Mats Sundin, Owen Nolan, Eric Lindros). Through trades they turned the disgruntled Lindros into Peter Forsberg and a host of other players. Nolan brought defenseman Sandis Ozolinsh, who was a key to their 1996 Cup. Other draft choices of note include Adam Foote, Adam Deadmarsh, Chris Drury and Milan Hejduk. Deadmarsh helped them trade for defenseman Rob Blake, who along with Ray Bourque helped the Avs win a second Cup in 2001. So drafting combined with shrewd trading laid the foundation for the Avs' success.
The Stars' foundation also came through the draft, with players such as Mike Modano, Marty Turco, Jere Lehtinen and Derian Hatcher being draft picks. However, Dallas also made more liberal use of free agency than other year-in, year-out contenders, obtaining Brett Hull and Ed Belfour that way, to spark their 1999 Cup win. Aside from dealing for Sergei Zubov in the late 90s, the Stars typically use trades to fill out their depth and add key role players.
In all four examples, the draft was very important to these teams' sustained success, and teams such as Detroit and New Jersey, which have resisted the temptation to deal their prospects, have reaped the biggest reward - each winning three Cups since 1995.
Monday, May 14, 2007
Search for Stanley
A few random observations on the Stanley Cup playoffs:
Grit is still in style. That is what is allowing the Ottawa Senators to be on the verge of sweeping the new-NHL posterchild Buffalo Sabres. Yes the Sens have a line as talented as anyone's in Dany Heatley-Jason Spezza-Daniel Alfredsson, but Ottawa has jam and plenty of it. They also are getting terrific goaltending from Ray Emery.
The Anaheim Ducks have played in-your-face hockey all season ... to the point it could cost them against a Detroit Red Wings team that stocked up on - yes, you've got it - grit at the trade deadline and during this past offseason.
The Ducks' propensity for penalties was largely a non-factor during the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs because their special teams were so good. However, Detroit's have been just as good if not better during the West finals, so Anaheim will have to be more cautious without losing its identity if it wishes to move on.
Before the playoffs, I would have bet a lot of money on the winner of the West winning it all, but not now. It appears Ottawa will have a long break while Anaheim and Detroit likely go six or seven games. Folks, the Stanley Cup Final should be a doozy regardless of which team faces Ottawa. And should Buffalo rally from down three-love in the East finals, that is a whole nother story.
Grit is still in style. That is what is allowing the Ottawa Senators to be on the verge of sweeping the new-NHL posterchild Buffalo Sabres. Yes the Sens have a line as talented as anyone's in Dany Heatley-Jason Spezza-Daniel Alfredsson, but Ottawa has jam and plenty of it. They also are getting terrific goaltending from Ray Emery.
The Anaheim Ducks have played in-your-face hockey all season ... to the point it could cost them against a Detroit Red Wings team that stocked up on - yes, you've got it - grit at the trade deadline and during this past offseason.
The Ducks' propensity for penalties was largely a non-factor during the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs because their special teams were so good. However, Detroit's have been just as good if not better during the West finals, so Anaheim will have to be more cautious without losing its identity if it wishes to move on.
Before the playoffs, I would have bet a lot of money on the winner of the West winning it all, but not now. It appears Ottawa will have a long break while Anaheim and Detroit likely go six or seven games. Folks, the Stanley Cup Final should be a doozy regardless of which team faces Ottawa. And should Buffalo rally from down three-love in the East finals, that is a whole nother story.
Does the draft matter anymore? Part I
Do amatuer drafts really matter any more in the Big Four of U.S. sports? Or is it more a matter of how you play free agency and balance out your salary cap (baseball being the one exception, because unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL it doesn't have a cap per se).
Taking a look at some of the most successful teams in each sport can shed some light on this question.
Football first because it recently completed its growing springtime extravaganza.
The model franchises over the past 15 years in the NFL (roughly the length of time its salary cap has existed) have been the Cowboys, the 49ers, the Packers, the Broncos, the Steelers, the Patriots and the Colts.
During Dallas ascent in the early 90s, when it won three Super Bowls in four seasons, it featured a wealth of its own draft choices in staring roles: QB Troy Aikman, RB Emmitt Smith, WR Michael Irvin, S Darren Woodson, G Larry Allen. Among its top players, DE Charles Haley, TE Jay Novacek and CB Deion Sanders were imports from other teams either via free agency or Jimmy Johnson's astute trades.
Yes, San Francisco brought in Sanders and QB Steve Young, but the vast majority of its key players, Haley, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Rickey Watters, Roger Craig, Bill Romanowski and Ronnie Lott were 49ers draft choices.
The Packers traded for Brett Favre, signed Reggie White and acquired key players such as Eugene Robinson, Andre Rison, Sean Jones, Gilbert Brown and Keith Jackson to put them over the top for consecutive Super Bowl appearances a decade ago. However, Favre had no NFL career to speak of before coming to Green Bay, and the backbone of the Packers' teams came from players such as Gs Aaron Taylor and Adam Timmerman, TE Mark Chmura, RBs Edgar Bennett and Dorsey Levens, WR Robert Brooks, LB George Koonce, CB Doug Evans and S LeRoy Butler.
The Patriots? Many of their key players also arrived during the draft: QB Tom Brady, DE Richard Seymour, LB Teddy Bruschi, K Adam Vinitieri to name four. But New England also has made wise choices in free agency, signing players such as LB Mike Vrabel and Rodney Harrison and obtaining RB Corey Dillon when few teams would take a risk on him.
Pittsburgh made one big acquisition during the past 15 years - and it was a great one - RB Jerome Bettis. An argument could be made for LB Kevin Greene, too, though he also had extended stays in Los Angeles and Carolina. Aside from "the Bus", the Steelers were entirely homegrown, and probably more well known for whom the LOST in free agency rather than whom they drafted to refill those slots year after year.
The vast majority of the foundation of the Colts also came through the draft, witness QB Peyton Manning, WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, S Bob Sanders, DE Dwight Freeney, RBs Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai (and Edgerrin James before them).
And the Broncos, while more aggressive in free agency than any of the other teams mentioned (WR Rod Smith was let go by Dallas, WR Ed McCaffrey, LB Romanowski. And CB Champ Bailey was acquired in a trade), a bulk of their team also was home-grown. That includes: QB John Elway, RB Terrell Davis, TE Shannon Sharpe, S Steve Atwater, DL Trevor Pryce.
So the lesson from the NFL is the draft absolutely matters. Being smart in free agency can either fill in gaps for a contender (Dallas, New England and Denver for example) or put a near-contender (Green Bay) over the top. It could be argued that White is truly one of the only impact free agents ever signed.
Rams fans, don't fret. I haven't forgotten QB Kurt Warner, but he was a free agent for reasons different that White, though his story was no less compelling. A case could be made to include the Rams in this category, but two things happened for them that might happen once in a lifetime: the out-of-nowhere emergence of Warner (Brady doesn't count because he'd played at Michigan, not Northern Iowa, and had not been cut as many times as Warner had) and the acquisition of a sure-fire Hall of Fame running back in Marshall Faulk just a few seasons into his career (just as remarkable to me is that the Colts were able to recover from such a deal).
Taking a look at some of the most successful teams in each sport can shed some light on this question.
Football first because it recently completed its growing springtime extravaganza.
The model franchises over the past 15 years in the NFL (roughly the length of time its salary cap has existed) have been the Cowboys, the 49ers, the Packers, the Broncos, the Steelers, the Patriots and the Colts.
During Dallas ascent in the early 90s, when it won three Super Bowls in four seasons, it featured a wealth of its own draft choices in staring roles: QB Troy Aikman, RB Emmitt Smith, WR Michael Irvin, S Darren Woodson, G Larry Allen. Among its top players, DE Charles Haley, TE Jay Novacek and CB Deion Sanders were imports from other teams either via free agency or Jimmy Johnson's astute trades.
Yes, San Francisco brought in Sanders and QB Steve Young, but the vast majority of its key players, Haley, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Rickey Watters, Roger Craig, Bill Romanowski and Ronnie Lott were 49ers draft choices.
The Packers traded for Brett Favre, signed Reggie White and acquired key players such as Eugene Robinson, Andre Rison, Sean Jones, Gilbert Brown and Keith Jackson to put them over the top for consecutive Super Bowl appearances a decade ago. However, Favre had no NFL career to speak of before coming to Green Bay, and the backbone of the Packers' teams came from players such as Gs Aaron Taylor and Adam Timmerman, TE Mark Chmura, RBs Edgar Bennett and Dorsey Levens, WR Robert Brooks, LB George Koonce, CB Doug Evans and S LeRoy Butler.
The Patriots? Many of their key players also arrived during the draft: QB Tom Brady, DE Richard Seymour, LB Teddy Bruschi, K Adam Vinitieri to name four. But New England also has made wise choices in free agency, signing players such as LB Mike Vrabel and Rodney Harrison and obtaining RB Corey Dillon when few teams would take a risk on him.
Pittsburgh made one big acquisition during the past 15 years - and it was a great one - RB Jerome Bettis. An argument could be made for LB Kevin Greene, too, though he also had extended stays in Los Angeles and Carolina. Aside from "the Bus", the Steelers were entirely homegrown, and probably more well known for whom the LOST in free agency rather than whom they drafted to refill those slots year after year.
The vast majority of the foundation of the Colts also came through the draft, witness QB Peyton Manning, WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, S Bob Sanders, DE Dwight Freeney, RBs Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai (and Edgerrin James before them).
And the Broncos, while more aggressive in free agency than any of the other teams mentioned (WR Rod Smith was let go by Dallas, WR Ed McCaffrey, LB Romanowski. And CB Champ Bailey was acquired in a trade), a bulk of their team also was home-grown. That includes: QB John Elway, RB Terrell Davis, TE Shannon Sharpe, S Steve Atwater, DL Trevor Pryce.
So the lesson from the NFL is the draft absolutely matters. Being smart in free agency can either fill in gaps for a contender (Dallas, New England and Denver for example) or put a near-contender (Green Bay) over the top. It could be argued that White is truly one of the only impact free agents ever signed.
Rams fans, don't fret. I haven't forgotten QB Kurt Warner, but he was a free agent for reasons different that White, though his story was no less compelling. A case could be made to include the Rams in this category, but two things happened for them that might happen once in a lifetime: the out-of-nowhere emergence of Warner (Brady doesn't count because he'd played at Michigan, not Northern Iowa, and had not been cut as many times as Warner had) and the acquisition of a sure-fire Hall of Fame running back in Marshall Faulk just a few seasons into his career (just as remarkable to me is that the Colts were able to recover from such a deal).
Radiant is worth another look
I wanted to take a moment to tell you about another exciting new band I encountered recently, a Dallas-based outfit called Radiant.
The Mrs. and I caught them at Calvary Church in Pacific Palisades during late April for a worship concert with Travis Taylor (who is also an outstanding songwriter/singer in his own right). Radiant backed Taylor as well as its own leader, Levi Smith, in one of the more inspiring sets I've heard in quite some time. Think what would happen if Coldplay met God and you get the idea.
Some innovative uses of guitar effects and piano combined with a solid rhythm section led by brothers Daniel and Jesse Hopkins had us on our feet with our arms vertical for the better part of two hours.
To learn more, visit their site: http://www.radianttheband.com
The Mrs. and I caught them at Calvary Church in Pacific Palisades during late April for a worship concert with Travis Taylor (who is also an outstanding songwriter/singer in his own right). Radiant backed Taylor as well as its own leader, Levi Smith, in one of the more inspiring sets I've heard in quite some time. Think what would happen if Coldplay met God and you get the idea.
Some innovative uses of guitar effects and piano combined with a solid rhythm section led by brothers Daniel and Jesse Hopkins had us on our feet with our arms vertical for the better part of two hours.
To learn more, visit their site: http://www.radianttheband.com
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