This isn't a full review ... because the game of the week is on Monday night in New Orleans.
Conventional wisdom says watch out for teams who close out the season on a roll. Well, we have five weeks left and three of the hottest teams reside in the AFC - Indianapolis, San Diego and Tennessee each has won five or more games in a row. The similarities end there.
The Colts are 11-0 and seemingly find a new way each week to come back and win. Their AFC South Division brethren, the Titans, have won five in a row ... after starting the season with six consecutive losses. The difference? Would you believe Vince Young, who is playing like the franchise quarterback he was projected to be when he was drafted four years ago.
How quickly things change. One season ago, it was Kerry Collins at the helm, replacing Young and leading the Titans to a 13-3 record. After Collins was unable to lead Tennessee to a victory through the end of October, the Titans made a change (strongly suggested by owner Bud Adams, by the way) after their bye week.
Meanwhile, out West the Chargers (8-3) have bolted to six consecutive victories to overtake the Denver Broncos - they of a 6-0 start - in the division. In the 50th anniversary season of the AFL, the Chargers are turning back the clock and scoring like an AFL team.
The NFC has just two teams on win streaks of four or longer, the 10-1 Vikings and the 10-0 Saints.
The coldest teams? In the NFC, the Bears - once considered an NFC North contender - have dropped four in a row, while the Browns (1-10) have dropped six consecutive in the AFC. Another team that has seen its fortunes go in reverse? Houston (5-6), which has lost three straight and now finds itself in a logjam two games out of the final AFC wild-card spot.
How wild is that?
I have a tough time remembering a season when all eight divisions might be decided before December, but that is what appears to be the case this season. Clearly the wild-card races will be the most competitive.
In the NFC, only the East - where the Cowboys have a one-game lead over the Eagles - is close at the moment. Minnesota has a three-game lead plus a tiebreaker over Green Bay in the North. The Saints have a five-game lead plus a tie-breaker on Atlanta in the South. And the Cardinals have a two-game lead over San Francisco in the West. The 49ers, however, could be in business if they keep winning because they face Arizona again and the Cardinals face the red-hot Vikings next week.
In the AFC, the Colts will clinch the South with one more victory. The Bengals swept their division and have a two-game lead plus all tiebreakers in the North. The Chargers are playing almost as well as anyone in the NFL and they hammered their closest pursuer - the Broncos - in Denver in Week 11. Win or lose Monday, the Patriots are in charge in the East, and a win Monday keeps their lead at three.
Top 5/Bottom 5 ... will appear after the Monday Night Game.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Saturday, November 07, 2009
Week 9 Around the NFL
Do the owners' really know what they're doing?
This isn't what you think: I'm talking about picking quarterbacks. I'll leave the other stuff to someone else to determine.
You know by now the Cowboys' Jerry Jones (also the team's GM!) and the Redskins' Daniel Snyder are aggressive meddlers, and if you're a fan of either of those teams, you can thank the honchos for Tony Romo and Jason Campbell.
Now comes rumblings that the Glazers want to see first-round pick Josh Freeman start ... and so he will on Sunday vs. the Packers. Nothing against Freeman, who from all appearances is a physical marvel. But he's the team's third starter at the most important position in eight games. If the plan was to go with him, then why give Josh Johnson four games as starter? Or why sign Byron Leftwich and then banish him to the bench after three games? What's going on here?
Next up is Titans owner Bud Adams, who a few weeks back mentioned he'd like to see Vince Young start for the then 0-6 Titans after their bye week. Young's problems and personality quirks have been well-documented, but lo and behold Young played last week and the Titans got their first win of the season. Adams, the man who moved his franchise from Houston to Nashville (only to see the NFL place an expansion team in Houston, which now has a beautiful new stadium that Adams apparently couldn't get), must know something about QBs.
In the weeds
Take this to the bank. There will be some team in the middle of the pack right now that makes a move to not only earn a playoff spot and win at least one playoff game. A couple of AFC teams in that category can take big first steps in that direction in Week 9.
Some candidates:
Miami, which plays the Patriots. The Dolphins are 3-4, but have won three of their past four. All three wins came in the AFC East, including two vs. the New York Jets (4-4). A win at New England would position the Dolphins well to make a run at the AFC East. ...
Baltimore, which travels to Cincinnati. The Ravens (4-3) lost to the Bengals in the last minute of their Week 5 game at Baltimore. The next week, the Ravens missed a last-second field goal at the Metrodome that could have send Minnesota to its first loss. If Baltimore wins this game it will tie the Bengals for the AFC North lead. If Pittsburgh wins at Denver on Monday, there would be a three-way tie for first, and the Ravens and Steelers would have two meetings to come.
San Diego, which travels to New York to play the reeling Giants. The Bolts (4-3) are having a lot of problems on defense, due in large part to the season-ending injury to NT Jamal Williams and substandard play from their heralded group of linebackers. However, they're just two games behind the suddenly vulnerable Broncos, who could be 6-2 by the time Week 10 rolls around. Yes, Denver won at San Diego, but don't count the Chargers out just yet.
Top 5:
Bottom 5 (tough to limit it to five this season):
This isn't what you think: I'm talking about picking quarterbacks. I'll leave the other stuff to someone else to determine.
You know by now the Cowboys' Jerry Jones (also the team's GM!) and the Redskins' Daniel Snyder are aggressive meddlers, and if you're a fan of either of those teams, you can thank the honchos for Tony Romo and Jason Campbell.
Now comes rumblings that the Glazers want to see first-round pick Josh Freeman start ... and so he will on Sunday vs. the Packers. Nothing against Freeman, who from all appearances is a physical marvel. But he's the team's third starter at the most important position in eight games. If the plan was to go with him, then why give Josh Johnson four games as starter? Or why sign Byron Leftwich and then banish him to the bench after three games? What's going on here?
Next up is Titans owner Bud Adams, who a few weeks back mentioned he'd like to see Vince Young start for the then 0-6 Titans after their bye week. Young's problems and personality quirks have been well-documented, but lo and behold Young played last week and the Titans got their first win of the season. Adams, the man who moved his franchise from Houston to Nashville (only to see the NFL place an expansion team in Houston, which now has a beautiful new stadium that Adams apparently couldn't get), must know something about QBs.
In the weeds
Take this to the bank. There will be some team in the middle of the pack right now that makes a move to not only earn a playoff spot and win at least one playoff game. A couple of AFC teams in that category can take big first steps in that direction in Week 9.
Some candidates:
Miami, which plays the Patriots. The Dolphins are 3-4, but have won three of their past four. All three wins came in the AFC East, including two vs. the New York Jets (4-4). A win at New England would position the Dolphins well to make a run at the AFC East. ...
Baltimore, which travels to Cincinnati. The Ravens (4-3) lost to the Bengals in the last minute of their Week 5 game at Baltimore. The next week, the Ravens missed a last-second field goal at the Metrodome that could have send Minnesota to its first loss. If Baltimore wins this game it will tie the Bengals for the AFC North lead. If Pittsburgh wins at Denver on Monday, there would be a three-way tie for first, and the Ravens and Steelers would have two meetings to come.
San Diego, which travels to New York to play the reeling Giants. The Bolts (4-3) are having a lot of problems on defense, due in large part to the season-ending injury to NT Jamal Williams and substandard play from their heralded group of linebackers. However, they're just two games behind the suddenly vulnerable Broncos, who could be 6-2 by the time Week 10 rolls around. Yes, Denver won at San Diego, but don't count the Chargers out just yet.
Top 5:
- 1. New Orleans (7-0) - Trap game vs. somewhat resurgent Panthers on Sunday.
- 2. Minnesota (7-1) - Late bye week and a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way sets up the Vikings for a deep playoff run.
- 3. Indianapolis (7-0) - Injuries on defense are bound to catch up with them sooner than later, quite possibly vs. Houston this week.
- 4. Philadelphia (5-2) - Interesting game vs. Dallas this week. Eagles can establish themselves as the NFC East front-runner with consecutive victories over Giants and Cowboys.
- 5. New England (6-2) - Patriots show signs of dominance at times, and the late bye also helps them. Must beat Miami at home this weekend.
Bottom 5 (tough to limit it to five this season):
- 28. St. Louis (1-7) - The Rams get two weeks to enjoy their victory.
- 29. Oakland (2-6) - The Raiders appear to quit at times, yet they're capable of beating the Eagles? This team should have its own category.
- 30. Detroit (1-6) - You lose to the Rams at home, and you get a permanent 2009 spot in this category.
- 31. Cleveland (1-7) - Derek Anderson is playing as badly as any QB I've ever seen. Oh, and they don't have a GM for some reason now.
- 32. Tampa Bay (0-7) - As if things weren't bad enough, they're hauling out the Creamsicle uniforms this weekend.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Week 5 NFL Review
Several observations from Sunday's NFL games ...
Don't look now, but the Bungles, I mean Bengals, are 4-1. Their lone loss was to the unbeaten Broncos on a play we might not see replicated for another 10 years.
They added a win over the Ravens on Sunday to one over the Steelers and one over the Packers. Cincinnati also has defeated the Browns, meaning that five weeks into the season the Bengals not only have a one-game lead in the NFC North, but they have defeated every team in their division already.
In addition to another round vs. the Ravens (home) and Steelers (road), the Bengals have dates remaining against the Vikings, Bears, Jets and Chargers. However, they also play the Browns again, and have dates against the Raiders, Chiefs, Lions and Texans. So not only is 9-7 likely, with another couple of wins vs. better teams on their remaining schedule, the Bengals realistically could finish 11-5.
GAME OF THE WEEK?
I was ready to tear FOX a new one when I discovered their No. 1 announcing team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman was calling the Chiefs-Cowboys game (or Dallas Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys in the retro uniforms). The game turned out to be one of the few watchable ones on a Sunday full of annihilations. But initially I wanted to jump all over the network for putting the St. Louis-based Buck and the Dallas-based Aikman on that game rather than the promising 49ers-Falcons game. (What, do these guys have travel clauses in their contracts?). Who knew the Texans, er Chiefs, would take the Cowboys to overtime?
OH YEAH
I can't remember a season when there have been five undefeated teams this far into the season, and as the Patriots found out on Sunday, the Broncos are for real. The Giants, Vikings and Colts defeated three of the NFL's worst teams (a large group this year, more on this in a bit), and the Saints had the weekend. It is highly unlikely I will be writing about five undefeated teams next Sunday because the Giants travel to New Orleans. The Giants haven't been tested for a few weeks, so I'm curious to see how they fare against the Saints.
OH NO
Conversely, I can't remember a season when there were so many awful teams. I told a family member Friday that I believe a handful of the worst of the worst - the Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, Browns, Bills and Bucs - will only win when they play each other. The Raiders' only win was vs. the Chiefs, and the Browns won their first game Sunday, 6-3, vs. the Bills. The Titans, now 0-5, are close to joining that club no matter how good I think they could have been. And even though the Panthers got in the win column Sunday, they were not impressive vs. the Redskins. Washington, by the way, has only played winless teams this season. Sure the Redskins are 2-3, but they look impotent on offense. So that is nine teams (and I suspect there are a few others out there who have fooled us with a few wins) that basically can forget about it this season. And we're in Week 5.
YUCK!
I thought the Seattle Seahawks' "unwanted popsicles" uniforms in Week 3 were the most hideous I'd ever seen ... until Sunday. The Denver Broncos' brown and yellow uniforms, complete with vertically striped socks, rate even higher on the awful meter. Popsicles I can stomach, striped turds I can't.
NFC WORST?
All four NFC West teams had home games Sunday, and results were mixed. ... The Rams (again) looked awful and are 0-5 after getting hammered by the Vikings. But the other doings in the NFC West on Sunday made it a race after all. ... First, the front-running 49ers (3-2) got their hats handed to them by the Falcons, 45-10, at home. My guess - Mike Singletary doesn't give the Niners a day off from practice during their upcoming bye week. ... Next, the Arizona Cardinals held on to beat the Houston Texans (the current Texans, that is) with a goal-line stand. This of course was after the Birds blew a 21-point halftime lead. ... Then Seattle welcomed Matt Hasselbeck back by pounding visiting Jacksonville. (Jovy, this was for you. Quit hassling me about the Hawks for a few weeks would ya)
Don't look now, but the Bungles, I mean Bengals, are 4-1. Their lone loss was to the unbeaten Broncos on a play we might not see replicated for another 10 years.
They added a win over the Ravens on Sunday to one over the Steelers and one over the Packers. Cincinnati also has defeated the Browns, meaning that five weeks into the season the Bengals not only have a one-game lead in the NFC North, but they have defeated every team in their division already.
In addition to another round vs. the Ravens (home) and Steelers (road), the Bengals have dates remaining against the Vikings, Bears, Jets and Chargers. However, they also play the Browns again, and have dates against the Raiders, Chiefs, Lions and Texans. So not only is 9-7 likely, with another couple of wins vs. better teams on their remaining schedule, the Bengals realistically could finish 11-5.
GAME OF THE WEEK?
I was ready to tear FOX a new one when I discovered their No. 1 announcing team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman was calling the Chiefs-Cowboys game (or Dallas Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys in the retro uniforms). The game turned out to be one of the few watchable ones on a Sunday full of annihilations. But initially I wanted to jump all over the network for putting the St. Louis-based Buck and the Dallas-based Aikman on that game rather than the promising 49ers-Falcons game. (What, do these guys have travel clauses in their contracts?). Who knew the Texans, er Chiefs, would take the Cowboys to overtime?
OH YEAH
I can't remember a season when there have been five undefeated teams this far into the season, and as the Patriots found out on Sunday, the Broncos are for real. The Giants, Vikings and Colts defeated three of the NFL's worst teams (a large group this year, more on this in a bit), and the Saints had the weekend. It is highly unlikely I will be writing about five undefeated teams next Sunday because the Giants travel to New Orleans. The Giants haven't been tested for a few weeks, so I'm curious to see how they fare against the Saints.
OH NO
Conversely, I can't remember a season when there were so many awful teams. I told a family member Friday that I believe a handful of the worst of the worst - the Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, Browns, Bills and Bucs - will only win when they play each other. The Raiders' only win was vs. the Chiefs, and the Browns won their first game Sunday, 6-3, vs. the Bills. The Titans, now 0-5, are close to joining that club no matter how good I think they could have been. And even though the Panthers got in the win column Sunday, they were not impressive vs. the Redskins. Washington, by the way, has only played winless teams this season. Sure the Redskins are 2-3, but they look impotent on offense. So that is nine teams (and I suspect there are a few others out there who have fooled us with a few wins) that basically can forget about it this season. And we're in Week 5.
YUCK!
I thought the Seattle Seahawks' "unwanted popsicles" uniforms in Week 3 were the most hideous I'd ever seen ... until Sunday. The Denver Broncos' brown and yellow uniforms, complete with vertically striped socks, rate even higher on the awful meter. Popsicles I can stomach, striped turds I can't.
NFC WORST?
All four NFC West teams had home games Sunday, and results were mixed. ... The Rams (again) looked awful and are 0-5 after getting hammered by the Vikings. But the other doings in the NFC West on Sunday made it a race after all. ... First, the front-running 49ers (3-2) got their hats handed to them by the Falcons, 45-10, at home. My guess - Mike Singletary doesn't give the Niners a day off from practice during their upcoming bye week. ... Next, the Arizona Cardinals held on to beat the Houston Texans (the current Texans, that is) with a goal-line stand. This of course was after the Birds blew a 21-point halftime lead. ... Then Seattle welcomed Matt Hasselbeck back by pounding visiting Jacksonville. (Jovy, this was for you. Quit hassling me about the Hawks for a few weeks would ya)
Friday, October 09, 2009
NFL Week 5 Preview
Ever wonder if maybe an assistant had more to do with a team's success than a head coach did?
I've pondered this in light of some fall-offs by a couple of teams recently.
Exhibit A: The Titans
While many plan Tennessee's defensive plunge (and it's a big one) on the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth, remember that Haynesworth had an uneven career with the Titans (injuries, suspensions, lackadaisical play mixed with sheer dominance). More of a constant was coordinator Jim Schwartz, who led the Lions to their first victory in two seasons an clearly has instilled a new attitude in the Motor City.
Exhibit B: The Cardinals
Arizona lost Todd Haley when the Chiefs hired the offensive coordinator to be their new head coach, and the Cards fired defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, who then re-joined Haley in KC. The result - the Cards come out of the bye week 1-2 and appear to have some serious problems on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are in total rebuild mode so it's tough four games in to evaluate the success/failure of the former Birds assistants.
Exhibit C: The Jaguars
In 2007, Jacksonville nearly defeated then-unbeaten New England in the playoffs, and my guess is their physical style gave the Giants plenty to prepare for in the subsequent Super Bowl. Assistant Mike Smith becomes the Falcons coach, and thanks to his addition and that of QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner, the Dirty Birds turn it around. The Jags, meanwhile, sank to last in the AFC South with a 5-11 record.
GAMES OF THE WEEK
We have a couple of what I like to call "sort out" games on tap Sunday. First, Atlanta (2-1) travels to San Francisco (3-1), second, New England (3-1) visits Denver (4-0) and finally Cincinnati (3-1) travels to Baltimore (3-1).
The Falcons appear to be a much better indoors team than outdoors team, and in their loss to the Patriots in Week 3 New England played them physically. That is the formula I expect San Francisco to once again embrace. A loss would drop the Falcons two games behind the Saints in the NFC South, an intraconference loss could haunt the Birds in tiebreaker scenarios. The 49ers can solidify their hold on what again appears to be a very weak NFC West.
Are the Broncos for real? We'll know for sure this week. After a diet of Cincinnati (which appears decent at 3-1), Cleveland (0-4), Oakland (1-3) and Dallas (shaky 2-2), the Patriots come to town fresh off two consecutive triumphs over previously undefeated teams (Atlanta and Baltimore). Denver's defense has been thoroughly impressive, and I think they could give the Patriots a lot of problems. New England also won't have injured RB Fred Taylor, who has appeared to be their steadiest option in the ground game. But can the Broncos score any points against New England?
I'm not surprised Baltimore and Cincinnati are 3-1. Joe Flacco's progression in his second season has been impressive (kudos to coach John Harbaugh and coordinator Cam Cameron) for the Ravens, and the return of Carson Palmer at QB has helped balance the Bengals' offense a bit more. We know Baltimore has a terrific defense, but Cincinnati has quietly built a sturdy one as well. When was the last time this game was for the NFC North lead?
Many of the other games this week appear to be mismatches, but I'm sure there will be at least one surprise. I could see Dallas stumbling at Kansas City or the unbeaten Colts losing at Tennessee. Should the Titans lose, their season would effectively be over at 0-5. A lot depends on the health of the Titans secondary.
TOP FIVE
1. New Orleans (4-0) - Life's a Brees when you have a bye
2. Indianapolis (4-0) - I don't doubt Peyton Manning no matter how many injuries the Colts have
3. N.Y. Giants (4-0) - Battling through a ton of injuries, but the one to Eli could be costly
4. Minnesota (4-0) - As much as I hate to admit it, if this team fixes a few things look out
5. Denver (4-0) - That's D as in Denver
(I know the four unbeaten teams, it's lame). Others receiving votes: New England (3-1), Chicago (3-1), Baltimore (3-1), Philadelphia (2-1), Atlanta (2-1)
BOTTOM FIVE
32. Cleveland (0-4) - It doesn't matter who the QB is, who will he throw to?
31. St. Louis (0-4) - Just bad in all three phases of the game, and undisciplined on top of it.
30. Kansas City (0-4) - They could regret giving Cassel that longterm contract so quickly
29. Tampa Bay (0-4) - Showed a pulse vs. the Redskins
28. Oakland (1-3) - Commitment to ineptitude continues
Others receiving votes: Carolina (0-3), Tennessee (0-4), Seattle (1-3), Washington (2-2)
I've pondered this in light of some fall-offs by a couple of teams recently.
Exhibit A: The Titans
While many plan Tennessee's defensive plunge (and it's a big one) on the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth, remember that Haynesworth had an uneven career with the Titans (injuries, suspensions, lackadaisical play mixed with sheer dominance). More of a constant was coordinator Jim Schwartz, who led the Lions to their first victory in two seasons an clearly has instilled a new attitude in the Motor City.
Exhibit B: The Cardinals
Arizona lost Todd Haley when the Chiefs hired the offensive coordinator to be their new head coach, and the Cards fired defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, who then re-joined Haley in KC. The result - the Cards come out of the bye week 1-2 and appear to have some serious problems on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are in total rebuild mode so it's tough four games in to evaluate the success/failure of the former Birds assistants.
Exhibit C: The Jaguars
In 2007, Jacksonville nearly defeated then-unbeaten New England in the playoffs, and my guess is their physical style gave the Giants plenty to prepare for in the subsequent Super Bowl. Assistant Mike Smith becomes the Falcons coach, and thanks to his addition and that of QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner, the Dirty Birds turn it around. The Jags, meanwhile, sank to last in the AFC South with a 5-11 record.
GAMES OF THE WEEK
We have a couple of what I like to call "sort out" games on tap Sunday. First, Atlanta (2-1) travels to San Francisco (3-1), second, New England (3-1) visits Denver (4-0) and finally Cincinnati (3-1) travels to Baltimore (3-1).
The Falcons appear to be a much better indoors team than outdoors team, and in their loss to the Patriots in Week 3 New England played them physically. That is the formula I expect San Francisco to once again embrace. A loss would drop the Falcons two games behind the Saints in the NFC South, an intraconference loss could haunt the Birds in tiebreaker scenarios. The 49ers can solidify their hold on what again appears to be a very weak NFC West.
Are the Broncos for real? We'll know for sure this week. After a diet of Cincinnati (which appears decent at 3-1), Cleveland (0-4), Oakland (1-3) and Dallas (shaky 2-2), the Patriots come to town fresh off two consecutive triumphs over previously undefeated teams (Atlanta and Baltimore). Denver's defense has been thoroughly impressive, and I think they could give the Patriots a lot of problems. New England also won't have injured RB Fred Taylor, who has appeared to be their steadiest option in the ground game. But can the Broncos score any points against New England?
I'm not surprised Baltimore and Cincinnati are 3-1. Joe Flacco's progression in his second season has been impressive (kudos to coach John Harbaugh and coordinator Cam Cameron) for the Ravens, and the return of Carson Palmer at QB has helped balance the Bengals' offense a bit more. We know Baltimore has a terrific defense, but Cincinnati has quietly built a sturdy one as well. When was the last time this game was for the NFC North lead?
Many of the other games this week appear to be mismatches, but I'm sure there will be at least one surprise. I could see Dallas stumbling at Kansas City or the unbeaten Colts losing at Tennessee. Should the Titans lose, their season would effectively be over at 0-5. A lot depends on the health of the Titans secondary.
TOP FIVE
1. New Orleans (4-0) - Life's a Brees when you have a bye
2. Indianapolis (4-0) - I don't doubt Peyton Manning no matter how many injuries the Colts have
3. N.Y. Giants (4-0) - Battling through a ton of injuries, but the one to Eli could be costly
4. Minnesota (4-0) - As much as I hate to admit it, if this team fixes a few things look out
5. Denver (4-0) - That's D as in Denver
(I know the four unbeaten teams, it's lame). Others receiving votes: New England (3-1), Chicago (3-1), Baltimore (3-1), Philadelphia (2-1), Atlanta (2-1)
BOTTOM FIVE
32. Cleveland (0-4) - It doesn't matter who the QB is, who will he throw to?
31. St. Louis (0-4) - Just bad in all three phases of the game, and undisciplined on top of it.
30. Kansas City (0-4) - They could regret giving Cassel that longterm contract so quickly
29. Tampa Bay (0-4) - Showed a pulse vs. the Redskins
28. Oakland (1-3) - Commitment to ineptitude continues
Others receiving votes: Carolina (0-3), Tennessee (0-4), Seattle (1-3), Washington (2-2)
Sunday, October 04, 2009
Week 4 Review
Say this for the New England Patriots, they are tough to beat at home.
For the second consecutive week the Pats knocked off an undefeated team in Foxboro, Mass. Last week it was the Atlanta Falcons, this week the Baltimore Ravens. New England also regained a share of first place in the AFC East when the New York Jets fell at New Orleans.
However, the Pats were "this close" to possibly losing thanks to a costly fourth-down drop inside the 10 by Ravens receiver Mark Clayton. And despite the two home victories, New England could not run the ball against Baltimore and QB Tom Brady was good, but not great, although he did spread the ball around to nine different receivers.
Losses by the Jets and Ravens left just five teams undefeated (Indianapolis, Denver, New York Giants, New Orleans and Minnesota - which plays Green Bay in the Brett Favre Bowl on Monday night).
Oh Yeahs
Of those unbeaten teams, is there one that stands out to you? How about surprises you?
There are several who surprise me, starting with Denver. I was ready to use the weak opponent argument against the Broncos, but they've handed the surprising Bengals their only loss and Dallas is not a pushover. But the surprise of surprises? 26, as in just 26 points allowed ... for the season.
For all of the controversy the Broncos endured over rookie Coach Josh McDaniels' courtship of Matt Cassel, the Jay Cutler trade and the Brandon Marshall preseason suspension, it's the defense that has carried the day. With the San Diego Chargers banged up at 2-2 and sinking like a rock in the AFC West, the Broncos probably could go .500 the rest of the way and win the division. ...
I'm not surprised the Vikings are unbeaten (easy schedule), nor the Giants (just plain good), nor am I the Colts are (I will not doubt Payton Manning). The Saints are a mild surprise to me because they've knocked off tough Philadelphia (road) and Jets (home) squads. But the Broncos - that's one that I (and many others didn't see coming).
Oh no's
There also are six winless teams and seven more that are 1-2 or 1-3. That's 13 teams who have a very tough road to making the playoffs. Is parity dead?
The winless include: St. Louis, Cleveland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Carolina and Tennessee. None of the first four surprise me, but I expected more from Carolina, which appears out of sync on offense and susceptible to the run on defense. And I fully expected Tennessee to contend for the AFC South title. Already trailing the Colts by four games, the Titans can forget that and focus on a wild-card berth, or maybe just winning a game! Most shocking about Tennessee's fall? The defense, which has given up the fifth-most points.
For the second consecutive week the Pats knocked off an undefeated team in Foxboro, Mass. Last week it was the Atlanta Falcons, this week the Baltimore Ravens. New England also regained a share of first place in the AFC East when the New York Jets fell at New Orleans.
However, the Pats were "this close" to possibly losing thanks to a costly fourth-down drop inside the 10 by Ravens receiver Mark Clayton. And despite the two home victories, New England could not run the ball against Baltimore and QB Tom Brady was good, but not great, although he did spread the ball around to nine different receivers.
Losses by the Jets and Ravens left just five teams undefeated (Indianapolis, Denver, New York Giants, New Orleans and Minnesota - which plays Green Bay in the Brett Favre Bowl on Monday night).
Oh Yeahs
Of those unbeaten teams, is there one that stands out to you? How about surprises you?
There are several who surprise me, starting with Denver. I was ready to use the weak opponent argument against the Broncos, but they've handed the surprising Bengals their only loss and Dallas is not a pushover. But the surprise of surprises? 26, as in just 26 points allowed ... for the season.
For all of the controversy the Broncos endured over rookie Coach Josh McDaniels' courtship of Matt Cassel, the Jay Cutler trade and the Brandon Marshall preseason suspension, it's the defense that has carried the day. With the San Diego Chargers banged up at 2-2 and sinking like a rock in the AFC West, the Broncos probably could go .500 the rest of the way and win the division. ...
I'm not surprised the Vikings are unbeaten (easy schedule), nor the Giants (just plain good), nor am I the Colts are (I will not doubt Payton Manning). The Saints are a mild surprise to me because they've knocked off tough Philadelphia (road) and Jets (home) squads. But the Broncos - that's one that I (and many others didn't see coming).
Oh no's
There also are six winless teams and seven more that are 1-2 or 1-3. That's 13 teams who have a very tough road to making the playoffs. Is parity dead?
The winless include: St. Louis, Cleveland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Carolina and Tennessee. None of the first four surprise me, but I expected more from Carolina, which appears out of sync on offense and susceptible to the run on defense. And I fully expected Tennessee to contend for the AFC South title. Already trailing the Colts by four games, the Titans can forget that and focus on a wild-card berth, or maybe just winning a game! Most shocking about Tennessee's fall? The defense, which has given up the fifth-most points.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Week 3 review, part 1
Some random thoughts about Week 3 through Sunday night's game.
Was Super Bowl 43 a fluke? Of course that's an exaggeration, but both the Steelers and the Cardinals are 1-2 and looking nothing like postseason powerhouses.
Two weeks in a row the Steelers have had the tables turned on them after their dramatic Week 1 OT win. First the Bears marched down the field to beat the Steelers, then the Bengals did on Sunday.
Some commentators have pointed out that the Steelers' slide coincides with safety Troy Polamalu's injury, but Polamalu was hurt midway through the Week 1 game vs. the Titans and Pittsburgh managed to win that one.
Arizona has lost twice at home, including Sunday night's beatdown at the hands of the Colts, and nothing appears to be working for the Cardinals right now. Most alarming for Cards fans has to be Kurt Warner's statue-esque pocket poses. The veteran QB, who was unconscious in Week 2, absorbed numerous hits and sacks vs. the Colts' fleet front line. And against a banged-up Colts secondary This is a very bad sign for the birds heading into their bye week.
Road warriors: How good are the Colts? They come back to beat the Dolphins on Monday night in Miami - a game that saw the Dolphins win the time of possession battle by a 3-to-1 margin - then return to the road three time zones west and drill the Cardinals.
Turn back the clock: In an online column in another location (which I hopefully can reveal this week) I predicted this might be the week the Vikings needed Brett Favre to step up. Step up he did. Favre passed for more than 300 yards and threw a game-winning dart to Greg Lewis in the final seconds to lift Minnesota over San Francisco.
Remember the roar: December 2007. 21 months ago. Until Sunday, that was the most recent time the Lions had won a football game. Detroit held off a reeling Redskins team to win for the first time in 20 games. Much was made of it being the first career NFL victory for Matthew Stafford and Coach Jim Schwartz. But it's also the first NFL win for Detroit's second-year players, like running back Kevin Smith, who was a key to the Lions win.
2008 playoff teams in big trouble: In addition to the Steelers and Cardinals at 1-2, AFC division winners Miami and Tennessee are 0-3.
Fashion police: So whose idea was it to dress the Seahawks like those Popsicles that everyone leaves in the bottom of the box because they're not sure what flavor they are? Seattle's lime green jerseys are undoubtedly the worst NFL jersey I've ever seen in four decades of NFL watching.
TOP FIVE
1. NY Jets (3-0) They have smacked around New England and Tennessee (which won 24 games combined last season) in consecutive weeks
2. New Orleans (3-0) Won the second of back-to-back road games with defense and a ground game, which is a scary thought
3. Indianapolis (3-0) Who says Peyton Manning doesn't have enough weapons?
4. NY Giants (3-0) Dominating despite injuries
5. Baltimore (3-0) Feasting on cupcakes
Also receiving votes: Minnesota, Philadelphia, New England
BOTTOM FIVE
28. Washington (1-2) It could get ugly in the nation's capital after the Lions won for the first time in 20 games at the Redskins' expense
29. Kansas City (0-3) After a promising first game, the Chiefs have regressed more each week
30. St. Louis (0-3) Rams offense showed a pulse once Kyle Boller came in at QB
31. Tampa Bay (0-3) Five first downs - the entire game - vs. a banged-up Giants team
32. Cleveland (0-3) Point differential after three games? 66 points
Also receiving votes: Miami, Tennessee, Houston, Carolina (all of which I though could be playoff teams)
Was Super Bowl 43 a fluke? Of course that's an exaggeration, but both the Steelers and the Cardinals are 1-2 and looking nothing like postseason powerhouses.
Two weeks in a row the Steelers have had the tables turned on them after their dramatic Week 1 OT win. First the Bears marched down the field to beat the Steelers, then the Bengals did on Sunday.
Some commentators have pointed out that the Steelers' slide coincides with safety Troy Polamalu's injury, but Polamalu was hurt midway through the Week 1 game vs. the Titans and Pittsburgh managed to win that one.
Arizona has lost twice at home, including Sunday night's beatdown at the hands of the Colts, and nothing appears to be working for the Cardinals right now. Most alarming for Cards fans has to be Kurt Warner's statue-esque pocket poses. The veteran QB, who was unconscious in Week 2, absorbed numerous hits and sacks vs. the Colts' fleet front line. And against a banged-up Colts secondary This is a very bad sign for the birds heading into their bye week.
Road warriors: How good are the Colts? They come back to beat the Dolphins on Monday night in Miami - a game that saw the Dolphins win the time of possession battle by a 3-to-1 margin - then return to the road three time zones west and drill the Cardinals.
Turn back the clock: In an online column in another location (which I hopefully can reveal this week) I predicted this might be the week the Vikings needed Brett Favre to step up. Step up he did. Favre passed for more than 300 yards and threw a game-winning dart to Greg Lewis in the final seconds to lift Minnesota over San Francisco.
Remember the roar: December 2007. 21 months ago. Until Sunday, that was the most recent time the Lions had won a football game. Detroit held off a reeling Redskins team to win for the first time in 20 games. Much was made of it being the first career NFL victory for Matthew Stafford and Coach Jim Schwartz. But it's also the first NFL win for Detroit's second-year players, like running back Kevin Smith, who was a key to the Lions win.
2008 playoff teams in big trouble: In addition to the Steelers and Cardinals at 1-2, AFC division winners Miami and Tennessee are 0-3.
Fashion police: So whose idea was it to dress the Seahawks like those Popsicles that everyone leaves in the bottom of the box because they're not sure what flavor they are? Seattle's lime green jerseys are undoubtedly the worst NFL jersey I've ever seen in four decades of NFL watching.
TOP FIVE
1. NY Jets (3-0) They have smacked around New England and Tennessee (which won 24 games combined last season) in consecutive weeks
2. New Orleans (3-0) Won the second of back-to-back road games with defense and a ground game, which is a scary thought
3. Indianapolis (3-0) Who says Peyton Manning doesn't have enough weapons?
4. NY Giants (3-0) Dominating despite injuries
5. Baltimore (3-0) Feasting on cupcakes
Also receiving votes: Minnesota, Philadelphia, New England
BOTTOM FIVE
28. Washington (1-2) It could get ugly in the nation's capital after the Lions won for the first time in 20 games at the Redskins' expense
29. Kansas City (0-3) After a promising first game, the Chiefs have regressed more each week
30. St. Louis (0-3) Rams offense showed a pulse once Kyle Boller came in at QB
31. Tampa Bay (0-3) Five first downs - the entire game - vs. a banged-up Giants team
32. Cleveland (0-3) Point differential after three games? 66 points
Also receiving votes: Miami, Tennessee, Houston, Carolina (all of which I though could be playoff teams)
Saturday, September 19, 2009
2009 NFL Week 2 preview
There weren't many surprises in Week 1 of the NFL season, but I expect there to be several this week. There are a number of enticing match-ups, including:
The intra-division clashes
The three of the past four seasons have featured either Pittsburgh or Chicago in the Super Bowl. The Bears are stinging from a road loss to the rival Packers, while the Steelers are stinging from a physical overtime win over the Titans on opening night. So this should be another black and blue game, right? Not necessarily. The Steelers had a 2-1 pass to run ratio (47-23) in their opener, while the Bears had 38 passes and 31 rushes. Which team will generate more pressure and have better coverage?
- Carolina at Atlanta
- New England at the NY Jets
- Oakland at Kansas City
- NY Giants at Dallas
- Seattle at San Francisco
- Indianapolis at Miami
- New Orleans at Philadelphia
- Baltimore at San Diego
- Pittsburgh at Chicago
The intra-division clashes
- Carolina at Atlanta - Was last week's meltdown at home vs.the Eagles a sign of things to come for the Panthers or a factor of five turnovers? The Falcons capitalized on four uncharacteristic Dolphins turnovers last week. Atlanta can establish itself as the South's front-runner with a win here, while a Panthers loss would raise more questions.
- New England at the NY Jets - Let the smack talk flow. The Jets made a strong opening statement at Houston last week, while the Patriots looked mortal vs. the Bills. New England's defense absorbed another hit when LB Jerod Mayo suffered a knee injury. Can the Jets slow the Patriots' passing attack? That's a key question, the answer to which will help determine the AFC East's early leader.
- Oakland at Kansas City - Two 0-1 teams? Important game? Yes. Both looked surprisingly good in Week 1 losses, and both could have pulled off upsets. (I think both will as the season progresses) How QBs JaMarcus Russell of the Raiders and Matt Cassell (making his Chiefs debut) play are key. One of these teams can keep itself in the AFC West conversation.
- NY Giants at Dallas - The House That Jerry Built opens, and the schedule makers didn't do Jones or his Cowboys any favors by bringing the Giants to town. I'm curious how the Cowboys offense will do against a much stiffer defense this week.
- Seattle at San Francisco - The 49ers might be for real. They took the Cardinals apart in Arizona, and the could do the same in their home opener. Tough to get a read on the Seahawks. They played good, but not great, against the Rams last week. Seattle needs to establish its ground game, something Arizona couldn't or wouldn't do.
- New Orleans at Philadelphia - Put Donovan McNabb under center for the Eagles, and I think they would win. However, he's out. Fortunately for Kevin Kolb, the Saints don't have much of a pass rush. Philly's defense played well vs. Carolina in forcing five turnovers, but the Saints have far more firepower than the Panthers. That's the matchup to watch.
- Baltimore at San Diego - I think these are two teams with a lot to prove. Baltimore's offense impressed vs. the Chiefs, but it's defense clearly was not itself and let the Chiefs stay in their game. The Chargers could have (and probably should have) lost at Oakland. The Bolts' offensive line and backfield are banged up.
- Indianapolis at Miami - The Dolphins committed a very uncharacteristic four turnovers in losing at Atlanta, while the Colts did what they needed to to beat the Jaguars at home. Neither were impressive. A Miami loss will put it two games back of either the Jets or Patriots. The Colts need someone not named Reggie Wayne to step up in the passing game.
The three of the past four seasons have featured either Pittsburgh or Chicago in the Super Bowl. The Bears are stinging from a road loss to the rival Packers, while the Steelers are stinging from a physical overtime win over the Titans on opening night. So this should be another black and blue game, right? Not necessarily. The Steelers had a 2-1 pass to run ratio (47-23) in their opener, while the Bears had 38 passes and 31 rushes. Which team will generate more pressure and have better coverage?
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Week 1 Rewind
First things first about Week 1 of the NFL season ...
We can speculate all we want to during the offseason, and the preseason for that matter, about how much better/worse/healthier/softer/etc. someone or some team appears. None of that matters until the games matter.
Case in point - many anointed Chicago and Green Bay as Super Bowl contenders after the Bears acquired quarterback Jay Cutler and the Packers steamrolled everyone in sight. What many conveniently forgot is Cutler threw 18 interceptions last season while throwing to a far more talented group of receivers than he has in Chicago. Meanwhile, we should have listened to Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt's comments after his team lost in the preseason to the Packers. The Cards coach said, in effect, that his defense hadn't game-planned for the Packers, who obviously had done just the opposite. So of course the Packers looked unstoppable.
Repeat, nothing matters until the games start to matter.
Week 1 surprise teams
The Good - The Raiders have a pulse! Oakland played physical defense and might have more talent on offense than some realize. Really liked rookie WR Louis Murphy. ... The Chiefs, while clearly less talented than the Ravens, could have won that game at Baltimore. It says here that Todd Haley had a lot more to do with Arizona's success last season than has been reported. ... The Jets started a rookie QB in Mark Sanchez and had two starters in their front seven suspended and they dominated the Texans in Houston. ... The Eagles overpowered the Panthers in every phase of the game. I had questions about the Philly defense after defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's passing, the free-agent exodus of safety Brian Dawkins and the season-ending injury to middle linebacker Stewart Bradley. I have a lot fewer questions now. ... The Bengals, boosted by a vastly improved defense, should have defeated the Broncos.
The Bad - The Panthers looked lost, aside from one sustained drive early in the game, in getting hammered by the Eagles. I think I will regret picking them to win the NFC South. ... The Chargers appear - again - as if they're only going to play as well as they think they need to. I suspect they're going to lose more games this season than they should if that is not corrected. ... The Dolphins, another team I liked going into this season, did exactly what they didn't do last season - commit turnovers and penalties by the bushel full. With a tougher schedule, Miami could take a huge step back if that isn't fixed. ... The Cardinals got the 49ers' best shot, and they couldn't recover. Losing a home opener to a division rival is damaging on several levels.
The good news? It's just one week of 17.
Top 5 Teams
1. Pittsburgh - Give Big Ben the ball and 2 minutes and you'll pay.
2. NY Giants - They won't be the most exciting team to watch, but they won't beat themselves either
3. Philadelphia - The Eagles made a statement, punking the defending NFC South champs on their home turf.
4. New England - All those new defenders have some things to learn.
5. Minnesota - The Vikings won one they should have and appear strong in all phases except kick coverage.
Bottom 5 Teams
32. St. Louis - It's going to be a long season under the Arch
31. Cleveland - Couldn't pass on the Vikings.
30. Detroit - The offense showed some signs of life, but the defense cannot defend the pass.
29. Houston - Thrashed at home
28. Carolina - Really thrashed at home
Key injuries
We can speculate all we want to during the offseason, and the preseason for that matter, about how much better/worse/healthier/softer/etc. someone or some team appears. None of that matters until the games matter.
Case in point - many anointed Chicago and Green Bay as Super Bowl contenders after the Bears acquired quarterback Jay Cutler and the Packers steamrolled everyone in sight. What many conveniently forgot is Cutler threw 18 interceptions last season while throwing to a far more talented group of receivers than he has in Chicago. Meanwhile, we should have listened to Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt's comments after his team lost in the preseason to the Packers. The Cards coach said, in effect, that his defense hadn't game-planned for the Packers, who obviously had done just the opposite. So of course the Packers looked unstoppable.
Repeat, nothing matters until the games start to matter.
Week 1 surprise teams
The Good - The Raiders have a pulse! Oakland played physical defense and might have more talent on offense than some realize. Really liked rookie WR Louis Murphy. ... The Chiefs, while clearly less talented than the Ravens, could have won that game at Baltimore. It says here that Todd Haley had a lot more to do with Arizona's success last season than has been reported. ... The Jets started a rookie QB in Mark Sanchez and had two starters in their front seven suspended and they dominated the Texans in Houston. ... The Eagles overpowered the Panthers in every phase of the game. I had questions about the Philly defense after defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's passing, the free-agent exodus of safety Brian Dawkins and the season-ending injury to middle linebacker Stewart Bradley. I have a lot fewer questions now. ... The Bengals, boosted by a vastly improved defense, should have defeated the Broncos.
The Bad - The Panthers looked lost, aside from one sustained drive early in the game, in getting hammered by the Eagles. I think I will regret picking them to win the NFC South. ... The Chargers appear - again - as if they're only going to play as well as they think they need to. I suspect they're going to lose more games this season than they should if that is not corrected. ... The Dolphins, another team I liked going into this season, did exactly what they didn't do last season - commit turnovers and penalties by the bushel full. With a tougher schedule, Miami could take a huge step back if that isn't fixed. ... The Cardinals got the 49ers' best shot, and they couldn't recover. Losing a home opener to a division rival is damaging on several levels.
The good news? It's just one week of 17.
Top 5 Teams
1. Pittsburgh - Give Big Ben the ball and 2 minutes and you'll pay.
2. NY Giants - They won't be the most exciting team to watch, but they won't beat themselves either
3. Philadelphia - The Eagles made a statement, punking the defending NFC South champs on their home turf.
4. New England - All those new defenders have some things to learn.
5. Minnesota - The Vikings won one they should have and appear strong in all phases except kick coverage.
Bottom 5 Teams
32. St. Louis - It's going to be a long season under the Arch
31. Cleveland - Couldn't pass on the Vikings.
30. Detroit - The offense showed some signs of life, but the defense cannot defend the pass.
29. Houston - Thrashed at home
28. Carolina - Really thrashed at home
Key injuries
- Eagles QB Donovan McNabb - Not only does this hurt the team's continuity, but think what it does to the discussion about Michael Vick's role.
- Bears LB Brian Urlacher - A huge loss for a defense that had some teeth.
- Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson - I might regret writing this, but I think he's only the team's second-best back at this point.
- Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez - Indy already appeared thin at this position.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
NFL Week 1 Preview
OK, so this one is a bit late.
One trend to look for in the early weeks of the season, particularly Week 1, is a lot of high scores and unexpected heroes. Happens every year. Someone, some team will emerge and make the football-viewing world take notice.
We can only hope a majority of Sunday's and Monday's games are as compelling as Thursday night's Steelers victory over the Titans was.
TRIVIA TIME: You probably know Brett Fave surpassed Dan Marino as touchdown pass king two seasons ago. Whom did Marino pass on the NFL career TD pass list? (Answer below, and extra credit if you can name the two teams he played for)
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Philadelphia at Carolina - Two NFC playoff teams who harbor designs on deep postseason runs again. Can the Eagles' defense contain the Panthers' ground attack? Will Carolina have an answer for Donovan McNab and Brian Westbrook?
Miami at Atlanta - Two more playoff teams meet in an intriguing inter-conference matchup. The Dolphins win with defense, while the Falcons' formula leans heavily on a potent offense behind RB Michael Turner and QB Matt Ryan.
Chicago at Green Bay - The Bears' acquisition of QB Jay Cutler and the development of the Packers' young players - especially on offense - have these two teams solidly in the NFC North title discussion. The NFL's oldest rivalry is a clear statement game.
GAMES OF THE WEAK:
What were the league's schedule-makers thinking? Both Monday night games could be blowouts by halftime. Expect San Diego to run wild at Oakland after New England lights up Buffalo. ... St. Louis at Seattle also has the makings of a clunker.
TRIVIA ANSWER: Fran Tarkenton (formerly of the NY Giants and Minnesota Vikings)
Welcome back NFL!
One trend to look for in the early weeks of the season, particularly Week 1, is a lot of high scores and unexpected heroes. Happens every year. Someone, some team will emerge and make the football-viewing world take notice.
We can only hope a majority of Sunday's and Monday's games are as compelling as Thursday night's Steelers victory over the Titans was.
TRIVIA TIME: You probably know Brett Fave surpassed Dan Marino as touchdown pass king two seasons ago. Whom did Marino pass on the NFL career TD pass list? (Answer below, and extra credit if you can name the two teams he played for)
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Philadelphia at Carolina - Two NFC playoff teams who harbor designs on deep postseason runs again. Can the Eagles' defense contain the Panthers' ground attack? Will Carolina have an answer for Donovan McNab and Brian Westbrook?
Miami at Atlanta - Two more playoff teams meet in an intriguing inter-conference matchup. The Dolphins win with defense, while the Falcons' formula leans heavily on a potent offense behind RB Michael Turner and QB Matt Ryan.
Chicago at Green Bay - The Bears' acquisition of QB Jay Cutler and the development of the Packers' young players - especially on offense - have these two teams solidly in the NFC North title discussion. The NFL's oldest rivalry is a clear statement game.
GAMES OF THE WEAK:
What were the league's schedule-makers thinking? Both Monday night games could be blowouts by halftime. Expect San Diego to run wild at Oakland after New England lights up Buffalo. ... St. Louis at Seattle also has the makings of a clunker.
TRIVIA ANSWER: Fran Tarkenton (formerly of the NY Giants and Minnesota Vikings)
Welcome back NFL!
AFC 2009 Predictions
The AFC has morphed into the NFL's dominant conference this decade, and it features several strong Super Bowl contenders again this season - not the least of which are defending champion Pittsburgh and New England, which eagerly welcomes back quarterback Tom Brady.
Here is a look at each of the AFC's four divisions (*denotes playoff team)
EAST
Predicted order of finish: New England*, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo
Fast fact: Miami LB Jason Taylor needs eight sacks to move into the top 10 all-time in league history
The king: Much has been made of the return of Brady from a knee injury, but a bigger storyline in New England could be the extreme makeover of the defense. DE Richard Seymour, LBs Mike Vrabel, Rosevelt Colvin, Junior Seau and Teddy Bruschi, S Rodney Harrison and CB Ellis Hobbs all are gone. One guess is Coach Bill Belichick ultimately realized his defense needed to get faster (and younger). Remember, too, that the Pats have more high draft choices over the next two seasons than anyone as a result of trades of Seymour, Hobbs, Vrabel and QB Matt Cassell. The Brady-led passing game should be as potent as ever with the addition of WR Joey Galloway and RB Fred Taylor - two veterans itching for a Super Bowl ring.
The others: It says here Miami's rise from worst to first in the East was no fluke. The Dolphins were in the top 15 in the league in both defense and offense. The Chad Pennington-led offense was surprisingly balanced. And RB Ronnie Brown experienced a rebirth, thanks in part to the Wildcat formation. If the pass defense improves, the Dolphins could again hang with the conference's elite. ... The Jets have the potential to be a very good team, but they need a lot of things to come together - one more season from RB Thomas Jones, a quick integration of rookie QB Mark Sanchez into the offense, a receiver to step up, and the defense to take to new coach Rex Ryan's aggressive scheme. The latter shouldn't be a problem, but New York might have some problems scoring points unless some playmakers emerge. ... So the Bills added WR Terrell Owens, fired their offensive coordinator for being too creative in his play calling and completely rebuilt their offensive line, again. Oh, and their best offensive player - RB Marshawn Lynch - is suspended for the first three games. This doesn't sound like a winning formula.
NORTH
Predicted order of finish: Pittsburgh*, Baltimore*, Cincinnati, Cleveland
Fast fact: No team can match the Steelers' six Super Bowl victories.
The king: Pittsburgh can play it any way you want it thanks to a punishing defense, an underrated passing attack, a variety of running backs and a quarterback who appears to be a supersized version of John Elway. Ben Roethlisberger might not always put up the best numbers, but his flair for winning games in the final minutes certainly reminds me of the former Broncos great. The Steelers return largely intact, and it bears remembering that they had to overcome several key injuries last season, so they might be stronger this go around.
The others: I don't see a sophomore slump for Ravens QB Joe Flacco, and I do see a group of running backs that have pushed each other to be better. Much like the Jets, the Ravens need a young receiver to emerge to make Flacco's life a bit easier. The defense again should be stout, although losing coordinator Rex Ryan and LB Bart Scott to the Jets will hurt. The departure of stud offensive lineman Jason Brown didn't get as much attention but is equally important to Flacco and the offense. ... Cincinnati is mentioned as a darkhorse team by many prognosticators, and there are several reasons for this optimism. First, the return of QB Carson Palmer provides a massive upgrade at that position for an offense that ranked 32nd overall in 2008. Second, the defense continues to add players with plenty of upside through the draft (see LB Rey Maualuga). Third, Laveranues Coles isn't as big of a dropoff at WR from TJ Houshmandzadeh. The Bengals will have to run the ball A LOT better to sniff the playoffs. ... So who is the Browns' quarterback? Who will run the ball for Cleveland? Who will stop the run? The Browns' near-playoff berth two seasons ago looks more and more like a fluke. A return to form by WR Braylon Edwards would help the 31st-ranked passing offense, regardless of whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson is throwing to him.
SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Tennessee*, Houston*, Indianapolis, Jacksonville
Fast fact: Colts QB Peyton Manning is fourth all-time in TD passes and needs just 10 more to take over third - behind only Dan Marino and Brett Favre.
The king: The Titans won't catch anyone by surprise this season. Despite the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency, Tennessee's 7th-ranked defense should not fall off much. The ground game is in good hands with RBs Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Tennessee really needs rookie WR Kenny Britt to develops into a No. 1 receiver.
The others: Two consecutive 8-8 seasons and a steady influx of talent have me convinced this is the year for the Texans to finally make the playoffs. The key is keeping QB Matt Schaub healthy. Schaub, who has missed an average of five games the past two seasons, has plenty of targets - WRs Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels and RB Steve Slaton. But Schaub doesn't have a quality backup like Sage Rosenfels this season. Houston has an excellent defensive front and a Pro Bowl middle linebacker in DeMeco Ryans. However, the rest of the back half of the defense could be the team's undoing. ... How will the Colts respond to not having Tony Dungy on the sideline and Marvin Harrison split out on offense? The former, as well as some other coaching staff turnover, is a greater concern at this point. It's tough to bet against QB Peyton Manning, but the Colts' ground game and play vs. the run both were near the bottom of the NFL last season. That is not a formula for reaching the playoffs in 2009. ... The Jaguars aren't particularly awful in any phase of the game, but neither are they outstanding, and that won't get you far in the NFL. A lot is riding on QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew. The defense lacks impact players at this point.
WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Diego*, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City
Fast fact: Another 1,000-yard season for Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson will catapult him to seventh all-time on the NFL career rushing list.
The king: The aforementioned LT is healthy, and so is rush LB Shawn Merriman. The Chargers clearly are the class of a week division, and their offense - behind QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates and RBs Tomlinson and Darren Sproles - should be one of the league's best. Merriman's presence and pass rush makes the entire defense more effective. The evidence? The Chargers' sack total dropped from 42 to 28 and interceptions went from 22 to 8 last season.
The others: The season can't start soon enough for Denver, which improved its chances for having a better ground game by signing LaMont Jordan and Correll Buckhalter and drafting Knowshawn Moreno. That's offset by dealing QB Jay Cutler. The defense ranked in the bottom eight against both the rush and the pass, so there is work to be done. ... The Raiders followed up one of the more baffling drafts in recent memory by cutting the QB (Jeff Garcia) who clearly gave them the best chance to win. JaMarcus Russell would have to make huge strides for Oakland to be competitive. On defense, the Raiders have to improve the NFL's second-worst run defense. ... Two seasons in a row the Chiefs have traded an impact player. Last season it was DE Jared Allen. This past offseason it was TE Tony Gonzalez. The result has been a bunch of extra draft picks and QB Matt Cassell. Kansas City will be very young at most positions.
Here is a look at each of the AFC's four divisions (*denotes playoff team)
EAST
Predicted order of finish: New England*, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo
Fast fact: Miami LB Jason Taylor needs eight sacks to move into the top 10 all-time in league history
The king: Much has been made of the return of Brady from a knee injury, but a bigger storyline in New England could be the extreme makeover of the defense. DE Richard Seymour, LBs Mike Vrabel, Rosevelt Colvin, Junior Seau and Teddy Bruschi, S Rodney Harrison and CB Ellis Hobbs all are gone. One guess is Coach Bill Belichick ultimately realized his defense needed to get faster (and younger). Remember, too, that the Pats have more high draft choices over the next two seasons than anyone as a result of trades of Seymour, Hobbs, Vrabel and QB Matt Cassell. The Brady-led passing game should be as potent as ever with the addition of WR Joey Galloway and RB Fred Taylor - two veterans itching for a Super Bowl ring.
The others: It says here Miami's rise from worst to first in the East was no fluke. The Dolphins were in the top 15 in the league in both defense and offense. The Chad Pennington-led offense was surprisingly balanced. And RB Ronnie Brown experienced a rebirth, thanks in part to the Wildcat formation. If the pass defense improves, the Dolphins could again hang with the conference's elite. ... The Jets have the potential to be a very good team, but they need a lot of things to come together - one more season from RB Thomas Jones, a quick integration of rookie QB Mark Sanchez into the offense, a receiver to step up, and the defense to take to new coach Rex Ryan's aggressive scheme. The latter shouldn't be a problem, but New York might have some problems scoring points unless some playmakers emerge. ... So the Bills added WR Terrell Owens, fired their offensive coordinator for being too creative in his play calling and completely rebuilt their offensive line, again. Oh, and their best offensive player - RB Marshawn Lynch - is suspended for the first three games. This doesn't sound like a winning formula.
NORTH
Predicted order of finish: Pittsburgh*, Baltimore*, Cincinnati, Cleveland
Fast fact: No team can match the Steelers' six Super Bowl victories.
The king: Pittsburgh can play it any way you want it thanks to a punishing defense, an underrated passing attack, a variety of running backs and a quarterback who appears to be a supersized version of John Elway. Ben Roethlisberger might not always put up the best numbers, but his flair for winning games in the final minutes certainly reminds me of the former Broncos great. The Steelers return largely intact, and it bears remembering that they had to overcome several key injuries last season, so they might be stronger this go around.
The others: I don't see a sophomore slump for Ravens QB Joe Flacco, and I do see a group of running backs that have pushed each other to be better. Much like the Jets, the Ravens need a young receiver to emerge to make Flacco's life a bit easier. The defense again should be stout, although losing coordinator Rex Ryan and LB Bart Scott to the Jets will hurt. The departure of stud offensive lineman Jason Brown didn't get as much attention but is equally important to Flacco and the offense. ... Cincinnati is mentioned as a darkhorse team by many prognosticators, and there are several reasons for this optimism. First, the return of QB Carson Palmer provides a massive upgrade at that position for an offense that ranked 32nd overall in 2008. Second, the defense continues to add players with plenty of upside through the draft (see LB Rey Maualuga). Third, Laveranues Coles isn't as big of a dropoff at WR from TJ Houshmandzadeh. The Bengals will have to run the ball A LOT better to sniff the playoffs. ... So who is the Browns' quarterback? Who will run the ball for Cleveland? Who will stop the run? The Browns' near-playoff berth two seasons ago looks more and more like a fluke. A return to form by WR Braylon Edwards would help the 31st-ranked passing offense, regardless of whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson is throwing to him.
SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Tennessee*, Houston*, Indianapolis, Jacksonville
Fast fact: Colts QB Peyton Manning is fourth all-time in TD passes and needs just 10 more to take over third - behind only Dan Marino and Brett Favre.
The king: The Titans won't catch anyone by surprise this season. Despite the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency, Tennessee's 7th-ranked defense should not fall off much. The ground game is in good hands with RBs Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Tennessee really needs rookie WR Kenny Britt to develops into a No. 1 receiver.
The others: Two consecutive 8-8 seasons and a steady influx of talent have me convinced this is the year for the Texans to finally make the playoffs. The key is keeping QB Matt Schaub healthy. Schaub, who has missed an average of five games the past two seasons, has plenty of targets - WRs Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels and RB Steve Slaton. But Schaub doesn't have a quality backup like Sage Rosenfels this season. Houston has an excellent defensive front and a Pro Bowl middle linebacker in DeMeco Ryans. However, the rest of the back half of the defense could be the team's undoing. ... How will the Colts respond to not having Tony Dungy on the sideline and Marvin Harrison split out on offense? The former, as well as some other coaching staff turnover, is a greater concern at this point. It's tough to bet against QB Peyton Manning, but the Colts' ground game and play vs. the run both were near the bottom of the NFL last season. That is not a formula for reaching the playoffs in 2009. ... The Jaguars aren't particularly awful in any phase of the game, but neither are they outstanding, and that won't get you far in the NFL. A lot is riding on QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew. The defense lacks impact players at this point.
WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Diego*, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City
Fast fact: Another 1,000-yard season for Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson will catapult him to seventh all-time on the NFL career rushing list.
The king: The aforementioned LT is healthy, and so is rush LB Shawn Merriman. The Chargers clearly are the class of a week division, and their offense - behind QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates and RBs Tomlinson and Darren Sproles - should be one of the league's best. Merriman's presence and pass rush makes the entire defense more effective. The evidence? The Chargers' sack total dropped from 42 to 28 and interceptions went from 22 to 8 last season.
The others: The season can't start soon enough for Denver, which improved its chances for having a better ground game by signing LaMont Jordan and Correll Buckhalter and drafting Knowshawn Moreno. That's offset by dealing QB Jay Cutler. The defense ranked in the bottom eight against both the rush and the pass, so there is work to be done. ... The Raiders followed up one of the more baffling drafts in recent memory by cutting the QB (Jeff Garcia) who clearly gave them the best chance to win. JaMarcus Russell would have to make huge strides for Oakland to be competitive. On defense, the Raiders have to improve the NFL's second-worst run defense. ... Two seasons in a row the Chiefs have traded an impact player. Last season it was DE Jared Allen. This past offseason it was TE Tony Gonzalez. The result has been a bunch of extra draft picks and QB Matt Cassell. Kansas City will be very young at most positions.
Monday, September 07, 2009
NFC 2009 Predictions
Forgive the NFC if it has a bit of an inferiority complex this decade. Since the St. Louis Rams won the Super Bowl in 2000, the AFC has captured seven of the next nine contested this decade, including three by the New England Patriots and two by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Could this be the season the NFC begins to turn the tide? There is plenty of reason for optimism in some corners of the conference, which should feature three very strong divisions this fall.
Here is a look at each of the NFC's four divisions (*indicates playoff team):
EAST
Predicted order of finish: *NY Giants, *Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington
Fast fact: America's Team has not won a playoff game in the 21st Century
The king: The Giants simply are the toughest team in a very tough division. Outside of wide receiver, they are above average at every other position group, and terrific on the lines.
The others: There are significant ones for each of the other three teams. Philadelphia retooled its offensive line, but how well will it gel? Does having QB Michael Vick on the roster help or upset Donovan McNabb? Who replaces rising star MLB Stewart Bradley, who will miss the season due to injury? If the Eagles can answer these questions in the positive, they have the talent to go the distance. ... Dallas figures to have a good to very good defense, but it needs QB Tony Romo and RB Marion Barber to be more productive down the stretch. Romo's trend has been to play well when the games don't count as much then fade in December. How will he fare without Terrell Owens? Barber's numbers have declined the past two seasons significantly. RB Felix Jones' return from injury will help. ... Washington has a lot of holes, particularly on the offensive line and in the secondary. The former is very problematic in this division. One has to wonder how QB Jason Campbell, who is not under contract for 2010, will respond in light of the team's pursuit of Jay Cutler then Mark Sanchez in the offseason.
Bottom line: The Eagles proved last season they can beat the Giants, and given that they are more talented this season, it would not surprise to see them win the East.
NORTH
Predicted order of finish: *Minnesota, *Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit
Fast fact: The Packers' Aaron Rodgers is the only returning starting quarterback in the division
The king: Minnesota will run the ball and stop the run, as it always does. Can Brett Favre make a difference at QB? He might just enough to hold off his former team, but unless Favre has improved targets to throw to, it's hard to see the Vikings going all the way. One thing to watch will be team chemistry.
The others: Green Bay's offense should score almost at will if RB Ryan Grant plays more like the 2007 version than the 2008 one. Early returns on the Packers' new 3-4 defense are positive, and many personnel people have said it's only a question of how the d-line holds up because Green Bay has the athletes in its back eight. ... Chicago's defense has underachieved since its Super Bowl run three seasons ago, and it might be time to admit it's getting old in some places. Aside from LB Lance Briggs, the play of the Bears' other elite defenders (DT Tommie Harris, LB Brian Urlacher, CBs Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman) has slipped due to age, injury or indifference. QB Jay Cutler will make everyone, especially RB Matt Forte and TEs Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen, better. ... Detroit has begun (again) a long rebuilding process. The Lions did a decent job drafting and in free agency, but they still have many holes along their lines. WR Calvin Johnson and RB Kevin Smith are legit, and if either Matthew Stafford and Daunte Culpepper works out at QB, Detroit could be entertaining if not victorious from time to time.
Bottom line: Minnesota's defense is the best in the division, and that's why the Vikings will win it by a game over the Packers, who will be a dangerous team.
SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Carolina*, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
Fast fact: The Panthers will try to become the first team to repeat as division champ since the NFL realigned to eight four-team divisions
The king: Is Carolina as good as it appeared at times last season (very) or as awful as it looked in losing to Arizona in the playoffs when Jake Delhomme seemingly completed more passes to the Cardinals than the Panthers. I think it's the former. If Delhomme bounces back, he has an elite receiver in Steve Smith to throw to and an elite running back in DeAngelo Williams to hand off to. The o-line is very good, and the back seven on defense also are very good. The only question is can the defensive line (read Julius Peppers) generate more pressure this season?
The others: The Saints are a trendy pick to win the South, and their Drew Brees-led offense provides plenty of ammunition for that assertion. However, their defense still isn't championship quality, and for all of the recognition new coordinator Gregg Williams has heaped on him, he brings a complex scheme. That and the host of new parts will take some time to adjust to. ... The Falcons were a surprise last season, but I wonder how they will respond now that teams have a year's worth of film on QB Matt Ryan. Obtaining TE Tony Gonzalez was genius, but the defense still has a lot of holes. A very similar situation as New Orleans. ... Tampa Bay changed coaches and waved good-bye to a lot of veterans. However, the Bucs have quite a bit of talent on offense, and if their QB situation is settled, they could surprise those who don't expect much. Losing defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and cutting LB Derrick Brooks won't help the defense.
Bottom line: Any team could win this division, including Tampa Bay, but Carolina has the fewest holes.
WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Francisco*, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
The king: Staying with the tough teams win theory, the 49ers have a clear advantage in that department, from coach Mike Singletary on down. San Francisco has an excellent 1-2 punch in RBs Frank Gore and Glen Coffee, and an underrated QB in Shaun Hill. The defense has talent, especially LB Patrick Willis and CB Nate Clements. If the high draft picks in the front seven play up to their capabilities, the 49ers will be much tougher than expected.
The others: Was Arizona's Super Bowl run a fluke? Maybe not. The Cardinals have a lot of talent and QB Kurt Warner and WR Larry Fitzgerald were unstoppable in the playoffs. Arizona has more issues on offense than you might think, namely can it run the ball, can Warner stay healthy and can WR Anquan Boldin stay happy? The defense has some studs in DT Darnell Dockett, LB Carlos Dansby, CB D-R Cromartie and S Adrian Wilson. But they also were in the lower third of the league in pass defense and only average vs. the run. ... Seattle is a team on the decline, with an aging offense, and a defense that took some steps back last season, both individually and collectively. The Seahawks were racked by injuries in 2008, and the thinking goes that can't possibly happen again. But part of that is a product of wear and tear on the veterans. The odd coach-in-waiting scenario also didn't help. Have the Seahawks improved the 5-6 wins it will take to win the division? I don't think they have. ... St. Louis should have a harder edge to it this season, but the Rams, who have some talented individuals, don't have enough across the board talent to contend yet.
Bottom line: San Francisco is the pick because this is a division where the power game should work especially well. However, Arizona could win the division again. But really, that's not saying a lot.
Could this be the season the NFC begins to turn the tide? There is plenty of reason for optimism in some corners of the conference, which should feature three very strong divisions this fall.
Here is a look at each of the NFC's four divisions (*indicates playoff team):
EAST
Predicted order of finish: *NY Giants, *Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington
Fast fact: America's Team has not won a playoff game in the 21st Century
The king: The Giants simply are the toughest team in a very tough division. Outside of wide receiver, they are above average at every other position group, and terrific on the lines.
The others: There are significant ones for each of the other three teams. Philadelphia retooled its offensive line, but how well will it gel? Does having QB Michael Vick on the roster help or upset Donovan McNabb? Who replaces rising star MLB Stewart Bradley, who will miss the season due to injury? If the Eagles can answer these questions in the positive, they have the talent to go the distance. ... Dallas figures to have a good to very good defense, but it needs QB Tony Romo and RB Marion Barber to be more productive down the stretch. Romo's trend has been to play well when the games don't count as much then fade in December. How will he fare without Terrell Owens? Barber's numbers have declined the past two seasons significantly. RB Felix Jones' return from injury will help. ... Washington has a lot of holes, particularly on the offensive line and in the secondary. The former is very problematic in this division. One has to wonder how QB Jason Campbell, who is not under contract for 2010, will respond in light of the team's pursuit of Jay Cutler then Mark Sanchez in the offseason.
Bottom line: The Eagles proved last season they can beat the Giants, and given that they are more talented this season, it would not surprise to see them win the East.
NORTH
Predicted order of finish: *Minnesota, *Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit
Fast fact: The Packers' Aaron Rodgers is the only returning starting quarterback in the division
The king: Minnesota will run the ball and stop the run, as it always does. Can Brett Favre make a difference at QB? He might just enough to hold off his former team, but unless Favre has improved targets to throw to, it's hard to see the Vikings going all the way. One thing to watch will be team chemistry.
The others: Green Bay's offense should score almost at will if RB Ryan Grant plays more like the 2007 version than the 2008 one. Early returns on the Packers' new 3-4 defense are positive, and many personnel people have said it's only a question of how the d-line holds up because Green Bay has the athletes in its back eight. ... Chicago's defense has underachieved since its Super Bowl run three seasons ago, and it might be time to admit it's getting old in some places. Aside from LB Lance Briggs, the play of the Bears' other elite defenders (DT Tommie Harris, LB Brian Urlacher, CBs Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman) has slipped due to age, injury or indifference. QB Jay Cutler will make everyone, especially RB Matt Forte and TEs Desmond Clark and Greg Olsen, better. ... Detroit has begun (again) a long rebuilding process. The Lions did a decent job drafting and in free agency, but they still have many holes along their lines. WR Calvin Johnson and RB Kevin Smith are legit, and if either Matthew Stafford and Daunte Culpepper works out at QB, Detroit could be entertaining if not victorious from time to time.
Bottom line: Minnesota's defense is the best in the division, and that's why the Vikings will win it by a game over the Packers, who will be a dangerous team.
SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Carolina*, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
Fast fact: The Panthers will try to become the first team to repeat as division champ since the NFL realigned to eight four-team divisions
The king: Is Carolina as good as it appeared at times last season (very) or as awful as it looked in losing to Arizona in the playoffs when Jake Delhomme seemingly completed more passes to the Cardinals than the Panthers. I think it's the former. If Delhomme bounces back, he has an elite receiver in Steve Smith to throw to and an elite running back in DeAngelo Williams to hand off to. The o-line is very good, and the back seven on defense also are very good. The only question is can the defensive line (read Julius Peppers) generate more pressure this season?
The others: The Saints are a trendy pick to win the South, and their Drew Brees-led offense provides plenty of ammunition for that assertion. However, their defense still isn't championship quality, and for all of the recognition new coordinator Gregg Williams has heaped on him, he brings a complex scheme. That and the host of new parts will take some time to adjust to. ... The Falcons were a surprise last season, but I wonder how they will respond now that teams have a year's worth of film on QB Matt Ryan. Obtaining TE Tony Gonzalez was genius, but the defense still has a lot of holes. A very similar situation as New Orleans. ... Tampa Bay changed coaches and waved good-bye to a lot of veterans. However, the Bucs have quite a bit of talent on offense, and if their QB situation is settled, they could surprise those who don't expect much. Losing defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin and cutting LB Derrick Brooks won't help the defense.
Bottom line: Any team could win this division, including Tampa Bay, but Carolina has the fewest holes.
WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Francisco*, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
The king: Staying with the tough teams win theory, the 49ers have a clear advantage in that department, from coach Mike Singletary on down. San Francisco has an excellent 1-2 punch in RBs Frank Gore and Glen Coffee, and an underrated QB in Shaun Hill. The defense has talent, especially LB Patrick Willis and CB Nate Clements. If the high draft picks in the front seven play up to their capabilities, the 49ers will be much tougher than expected.
The others: Was Arizona's Super Bowl run a fluke? Maybe not. The Cardinals have a lot of talent and QB Kurt Warner and WR Larry Fitzgerald were unstoppable in the playoffs. Arizona has more issues on offense than you might think, namely can it run the ball, can Warner stay healthy and can WR Anquan Boldin stay happy? The defense has some studs in DT Darnell Dockett, LB Carlos Dansby, CB D-R Cromartie and S Adrian Wilson. But they also were in the lower third of the league in pass defense and only average vs. the run. ... Seattle is a team on the decline, with an aging offense, and a defense that took some steps back last season, both individually and collectively. The Seahawks were racked by injuries in 2008, and the thinking goes that can't possibly happen again. But part of that is a product of wear and tear on the veterans. The odd coach-in-waiting scenario also didn't help. Have the Seahawks improved the 5-6 wins it will take to win the division? I don't think they have. ... St. Louis should have a harder edge to it this season, but the Rams, who have some talented individuals, don't have enough across the board talent to contend yet.
Bottom line: San Francisco is the pick because this is a division where the power game should work especially well. However, Arizona could win the division again. But really, that's not saying a lot.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
2008 NFL Rewind
There are roughly five weeks to go before NFL training camps open. Organized Team Activities and Mini-camps are wrapping. The NFL is about to go into its rest period (all one month of it).
Before I begin my annual preview, I wanted to revisit my predictions and those of three other sources I used - Pro Football Weekly, The Sporting News and Sports Illustrated.
The actual results were as follows (*-denotes playoff teams)
NFC
East - N.Y. Giants*, Philadelphia*, Dallas, Washington
North - Minnesota*, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit
South - Carolina*, Atlanta*, Tampa Bay, New Orleans
West - Arizona*, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis
AFC
East - Miami*, New England, N.Y. Jets, Buffalo
North - Pittsburgh*, Baltimore*, Cincinnati, Cleveland
South - Tennessee*, Indianapolis*, Houston, Jacksonville
West - San Diego*, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City
How did I fare? I hit .500 on playoff teams.
In the NFC I correctly picked three of the six playoff teams (Minnesota, the Giants and Philly) and only one division winner (Minnesota). In the AFC, I also picked three playoff teams (Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and San Diego) and got two division winners correct (the Steelers and Chargers).
Where I missed: I had Dallas, New Orleans and Seattle winning NFC divisions, and New England and Jacksonville winning AFC divisions. Dallas disappointed a lot of prognosticators, the Jaguars had no offense, the Saints no defense, and the Patriots and Seahawks lost their starting QBs for much of the season.
In summary: I played it safe and had an average season.
How did PFW fare? Horrible.
The PFW boys picked just one division winner correctly (San Diego). Like me, they picked Miami and Baltimore last in their divisions, but compounded that by putting AFC top seed Tennesse in last place as well. New England, Indy and Dallas were logical division-winning picks, but Cleveland, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle all cratered.
How did the then-new combination of Sporting News and Street and Smith's far? Only slightly better.
The TSN/S&S tag team got two of eight division winners correct (Pittsburgh and San Diego). Their staff had the same four teams winning NFC Divisions (Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle) that PFW did, as well as New England and Indy in the AFC. Sensing a trend here?
How did SI fare? Better than their print brethren, hitting three of eight division winners (Pittsburgh, San Diego and Minnesota), same as yours truly.
Minuses for having Atlanta and Miami in last, but they weren't alone in that. But a plus for picking Arizona to finish second in the NFC West.
We've established 2008 was truly an unpredictable season, what will 2009 hold?
Before I begin my annual preview, I wanted to revisit my predictions and those of three other sources I used - Pro Football Weekly, The Sporting News and Sports Illustrated.
The actual results were as follows (*-denotes playoff teams)
NFC
East - N.Y. Giants*, Philadelphia*, Dallas, Washington
North - Minnesota*, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit
South - Carolina*, Atlanta*, Tampa Bay, New Orleans
West - Arizona*, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis
AFC
East - Miami*, New England, N.Y. Jets, Buffalo
North - Pittsburgh*, Baltimore*, Cincinnati, Cleveland
South - Tennessee*, Indianapolis*, Houston, Jacksonville
West - San Diego*, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City
How did I fare? I hit .500 on playoff teams.
In the NFC I correctly picked three of the six playoff teams (Minnesota, the Giants and Philly) and only one division winner (Minnesota). In the AFC, I also picked three playoff teams (Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and San Diego) and got two division winners correct (the Steelers and Chargers).
Where I missed: I had Dallas, New Orleans and Seattle winning NFC divisions, and New England and Jacksonville winning AFC divisions. Dallas disappointed a lot of prognosticators, the Jaguars had no offense, the Saints no defense, and the Patriots and Seahawks lost their starting QBs for much of the season.
In summary: I played it safe and had an average season.
How did PFW fare? Horrible.
The PFW boys picked just one division winner correctly (San Diego). Like me, they picked Miami and Baltimore last in their divisions, but compounded that by putting AFC top seed Tennesse in last place as well. New England, Indy and Dallas were logical division-winning picks, but Cleveland, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle all cratered.
How did the then-new combination of Sporting News and Street and Smith's far? Only slightly better.
The TSN/S&S tag team got two of eight division winners correct (Pittsburgh and San Diego). Their staff had the same four teams winning NFC Divisions (Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle) that PFW did, as well as New England and Indy in the AFC. Sensing a trend here?
How did SI fare? Better than their print brethren, hitting three of eight division winners (Pittsburgh, San Diego and Minnesota), same as yours truly.
Minuses for having Atlanta and Miami in last, but they weren't alone in that. But a plus for picking Arizona to finish second in the NFC West.
We've established 2008 was truly an unpredictable season, what will 2009 hold?
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Another Super storyline
Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm were two of Bill Cowher's top lieutenants when he was coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both interviewed for Cowher's job when he retired after the 2006 season.
Neither got it, and now both are architects of the Arizona Cardinals' rise to NFC champions.
As you know the Steelers, and the man who was selected to replace Cowher, Mike Tomlin, will be their opponent in Super Bowl 43.
All of the above are pros, and it would be a shocker if any of them made a big deal out of this in the remaining 10 days leading up to the game (they do have more pressing work after all).
On a macro level, their success increases expectations on ALL NFL coaches. These are second-year coaches who followed tough acts - in Tomlin's case a revered leader, and in Whisenhunt's case a franchise that has done virtually nothing since the conclusion of World War II.
Neither got it, and now both are architects of the Arizona Cardinals' rise to NFC champions.
As you know the Steelers, and the man who was selected to replace Cowher, Mike Tomlin, will be their opponent in Super Bowl 43.
All of the above are pros, and it would be a shocker if any of them made a big deal out of this in the remaining 10 days leading up to the game (they do have more pressing work after all).
On a macro level, their success increases expectations on ALL NFL coaches. These are second-year coaches who followed tough acts - in Tomlin's case a revered leader, and in Whisenhunt's case a franchise that has done virtually nothing since the conclusion of World War II.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Super Bowl pits tradition vs. parity
The Arizona Cardinals are evidence that the NFL is getting what it wants - parity.
How many of you had the Redbirds going to the Super Bowl, much less winning the relatively weak NFC West? I didn't.
The Cardinals dis-spelled two popular notions about playoff teams.
First, teams that finish the regular season crawling to the finish line have no shot in the playoffs. Arizona didn't just lose, it was getting blown out, including a loss at Philadelphia on Thanksgiving night.
Second, teams that play wild-card weekend will be too worn out by the time the conference championship game arrives. This theory has been disproven in recent years by the Colts and Steelers, but it still exists in the minds of some. Of course the Eagles also played in the first three rounds of the playoffs as well, and they needed a near miraculous combination of events on Week 17 to reach the postseason.
So these desert upstarts have reached the Big Game, but how? Coaching and a veteran quarterback. The Cardinals were a step ahead of the Eagles most of Sunday's game, and Kurt Warner was unflappable.
The Steelers, on the other hand, reach the Super Bowl for the second time in four years. They were a fashionable pick to go this far, and with good reason. Their defense was outstanding, and they scored just enough to survive a brutal schedule. The AFC Championship game vs. Baltimore was one of the most physically punishing games I can remember seeing. One gets the impression that the playoffs started in Pittsburgh long before the postseason did.
One other thought on what this matchup means. In an offseason in which the coaching carousel turns faster and faster, the pressure on coaches will be higher than ever. Both Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin and Arizona's Ken Whisenhunt are in just their second seasons, giving more ammunition to fans, front offices and owners that win-now is a reality.
How many of you had the Redbirds going to the Super Bowl, much less winning the relatively weak NFC West? I didn't.
The Cardinals dis-spelled two popular notions about playoff teams.
First, teams that finish the regular season crawling to the finish line have no shot in the playoffs. Arizona didn't just lose, it was getting blown out, including a loss at Philadelphia on Thanksgiving night.
Second, teams that play wild-card weekend will be too worn out by the time the conference championship game arrives. This theory has been disproven in recent years by the Colts and Steelers, but it still exists in the minds of some. Of course the Eagles also played in the first three rounds of the playoffs as well, and they needed a near miraculous combination of events on Week 17 to reach the postseason.
So these desert upstarts have reached the Big Game, but how? Coaching and a veteran quarterback. The Cardinals were a step ahead of the Eagles most of Sunday's game, and Kurt Warner was unflappable.
The Steelers, on the other hand, reach the Super Bowl for the second time in four years. They were a fashionable pick to go this far, and with good reason. Their defense was outstanding, and they scored just enough to survive a brutal schedule. The AFC Championship game vs. Baltimore was one of the most physically punishing games I can remember seeing. One gets the impression that the playoffs started in Pittsburgh long before the postseason did.
One other thought on what this matchup means. In an offseason in which the coaching carousel turns faster and faster, the pressure on coaches will be higher than ever. Both Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin and Arizona's Ken Whisenhunt are in just their second seasons, giving more ammunition to fans, front offices and owners that win-now is a reality.
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