Catching up on the NFL Season

Yeah, I know. It's been a while. All I can say is hockey happens! Lots of stuff transpiring since hockey season started, but the NFL season is getting interesting so it's time to get back on this horse, too.

A few observations with six weeks to go in the regular season:

Defense wins.
Exhibit A - Titans, Tennessee.
Exhibit B - Giants, New York.

The reason these two teams appear to be the best in the league right now is they are equally adept at stopping the run and the pass.

Don't be fooled by these teams:
1. Baltimore - the Ravens face three more NFC East teams down the stretch plus Pittsburgh again. 9-7 would be a great finish for the Ravens.
2. N.Y. Jets - Much is made of the Jets' improved defense, but in reality, they've had an easy schedule and thus have been able to overcome numerous turnovers on offense.
3. New Orleans - the preseason NFC South pick, the Saints can't stop anyone and are inconsisent running the ball. Their division has improved but they've regressed. I don't think they'll win eight games.
4. San Diego - It's tough for me to think of a more disappointing team than the Chargers. Playing in one of the two worst divisions in football, they are 4-6. The talent is there, but they can't seem to sustain drives when they need to or get defensive stops at key junctures.

Watch out down the stretch for these teams:
1. Indianapolis - the Colts are getting healthy and have won three in a row. Their schedule down the stretch is easy. Unfortunately for them they're playing for a wild-card spot.
2. Green Bay - Yes, I'm a homer, but if the Packers play as they did Sunday when they wiped out the Bears, they will win the NFC North and maybe a playoff game.
3. Dallas - Yup, I'm still on their bandwagon. This is a team with too much talent not to be a factor. In fact, I would not be shocked if they face the Giants at some point in the playoffs.
4. Pittsburgh - Sure the Steelers are leading the AFC North, but the worst part of their schedule is over and they're still standing. If they are remotely healthy, they are the biggest threat to the Titans in the AFC.

A bad year to be from California:
Three coaching changes at mid-stream - Raiders, 49ers and Rams. Turn back the clock to not too long ago, and all three teams were Golden State residents. The fourth team? The Chargers, whose coach, Norv Turner, is not making many points to stay beyond this season.

More to come.

2008 NFL Week 4 preview

What does the firing of a general manager three weeks into a season really accomplish?

Yes, Matt Millen's record as Detroit Lions GM was terrible, both on and off the field. But at this point in the season the scouting process for the 2009 draft is just underway, free agency and contracts aren't really in the picture.

Sure it's a PR move by a team desperate for some positive press, but why wasn't this done in the offseason?

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Washington (2-1) at Dallas (3-0): The Cowboys ran the ball and pressured the quarterback impressively at Green Bay on Sunday night. If the Redskins can't stop the run and protect QB Jason Campbell, they're in for a long day. But if Washington can do both of those things, it has a chance in this rivalry game. DE Jason Taylor's injury comes at a bad time for the Redskins. The pick: Dallas

Green Bay (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1): How well will the Packers bounce back from their loss to Dallas? And can they pressure QB Brian Griese enough to compensate for their decimated secondary (three starters out). Griese threw for more than 400 yards against a much better secondary last week, so it's not hard to predict the route the Bucs will go. The Packers have to run the ball well to have a chance. The pick: Tampa in a high-scoring game.

Baltimore (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-1): The AFC Central is there for the taking for these two teams, both of which have some serious holes. The Ravens have no passing game and the Steelers can't pass block. Pittsburgh will be without RB Willie Parker, which really hurts, and it was dominated by a physical Philadelphia team last week. This week it plays a team coached by a former Eagles assistant. The pick: Baltimore keeps it going in a very low-scoring game.

GAMES OF THE WEAK (and there are plenty):

Cleveland (0-3) at Cincinnati (0-3): Someone has to win. It's mind-boggling that two teams with so much talent on offense are doing so little with it.

Houston (0-2) at Jacksonville (1-2): Expect the Jaguars to start rolling after last week's win at Indianapolis.

Buffalo (3-0) at St. Louis (0-3): A trap game for the Bills? I don't think they can take anything for granted after needing last-minute rallies to win the past few weeks. Rams' lack of offense also surprises me.

Denver (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3): Unless Larry Johnson runs for 300 yards for the Chiefs, this could get ugly in a hurry.

San Diego (1-2) at Oakland (1-2): A sloppy team meets one with that regularly experiences brain lock. Neither has played near its talent level yet.

2008 record: 6-0

NFL 2008: Week 3 Rewind

How much stock should we put into fast and slow starts by certain teams after just three weeks? There certainly are no lack of suprises thus far.

The Elite (or at least the leaders)
There is no question in my mind now that the NFC East is by far the best division in football. Overall record: 10-2. Dallas, Philadelphia and the Giants are the three best teams in the NFC, and Washington isn't too far behind. ... The AFC has what could mildly be termed as surprise teams leading each Division (Denver, Tennessee, Baltimore and Buffalo). Keep in mind, however, Tennessee was a playoff team in 2007 and Buffalo was the team they beat out. Denver apparently has returned to its AFL roots and decided to try to outscore each opponent, while Baltimore is riding its defense to its strong start.

Home curse
I wonder if losses to Chicago and Jacksonville in the first two games there have dampened the enthusiasm for the Colts' new stadium.

O no
Can there be a more disappointed state of NFL fans than those in Ohio, where Cleveland and Cincinnati are both 0-3? The offenses of both clubs have inexplicably gone MIA. The good news is one of them should get a victory Sunday. They meet in Cincinnati.

State of Misery
It's tough to say they're more disappointed in Missouri, where expectations couldn't have been real high for Kansas City and St. Louis ... but this is bordering on ridiculous. The Chiefs and Rams might be the two worst teams in the NFL. The Rams have the NFL's worst defense and second-worst offense (how does that happen with RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc Bulger and WR Torry Holt?) and have been blown out three weeks in a row. And the rebuilding Chiefs have the third-worst offense. At least their young defense is keeping them in some games.

Good byes
Bye weeks start this week with six teams taking a break. The update on each follows.
Indianapolis - The Colts need a week off to heal an early season rash of injuries, particularly on the offensive line. A 1-2 start definitely was not part of the plan, and it could easily be 0-3.
Miami - The Dolphins are coming off a thrashing of the Patriots and have to feel better about themselves after starting with two duds. Still, there is a ways to go in Miami.
New England - The Patriots aren't going to be the offensive juggernaut they were last season, but who knew the defense would be such a problem? Still, I expect them to iron things out during their down time.
Seattle - I don't think Coach Mike Holmgren had planned on a 1-2 start, but then when you have six receivers injured, it's tough to win. More alarming should be the defense's disappearing act.
NY Giants - I can't wait until they play the Eagles and the Cowboys. The champs are playing like it.
Detroit - Good thing the Rams are in the NFC or I would write the Lions are the worst team in the conference. They have overpaid for older free agents so their defense isn't any better, and their offense - particularly QB Jon Kitna - continues to make mistake after mistake to take them out of games.

NFL 2008: Week 2 forecast

What are we to make of the AFC? If the pundits are to be believed, all of the favorites - San Diego, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and even New England - are doomed.

Not so fast.

Yes, the Patriots have lost QB Tom Brady for the season, but they have the rest of a championship-caliber team in place. Yes, Chargers Pro Bowl LB Shawn Merriman decided to have knee surgery and will miss the season. Yes, the offensive lines of the Colts and Jaguars are battered, with Jacksonville losing both of its starting guard for the season.

But as we used to say in the newspaper business as deadline approached: "It's early."

I would hesitate to rule any of those four teams out.

ROOKIE DAY
Can it get much better in Atlanta and Baltimore? Not only did rookie QBs Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco win their debuts, but they did so under the guidance of first-year coaches Mike Smith and John Harbaugh. As bad as things were for both franchises last season (awful in Atlanta and disappointing in Baltimore), Week 1 offered hope.

GAMES OF THE WEEK
New England (1-0) at N.Y. Jets (1-0): The Jets are suddenly a fashionable pick to win the AFC East behind QB Brett Favre and an improved pass rush. Not so fast. If there is one team Coach Bill Belichick will ahve the Patriots up for, it is the Jets, who started the Spygate controversy last season. The pick: Patriots.

Chicago (1-0) at Carolina (1-0): Two teams who scored road upsets in Week 1 square off in Charlotte. The Bears road rookie RB Matt Forte's rushing and a stout defense to a surprisingly easy victory over the Colts. QB Jake Delhomme, meanwhile, might have gotten a bionic arm when he underwent season-ending elbow surgery last season. Delhomme led the Panthers to a stunning upset of the Chargers without suspended WR Steve Smith. This will be a physical game, but Delhomme again will be the difference. The pick: Panthers.

Philadelphia (1-0) at Dallas (1-0): Two NFC East teams coming off blowout victories square off in Big D. The Cowboys' rout of the Browns was more impressive than the Eagles' walkover against the Rams. QB Donovan McNabb appears to be back at a Pro Bowl level, and the Eagles have upgraded their team speed. The Eagles' secondary matches up well with the Cowboys' passing game, so if they can slow RB Marion Barber, who has bruised ribs, I like the visitors. The pick: Eagles.

GAMES OF THE WEAK:
N.Y. Giants (1-0) at St. Louis (0-1): The Giants played like the champs in their opening victory against Washington. The Rams played like they're going to draft first overall again in getting drilled by the Eagles.

Oakland (0-1) at Kansas City (0-1): Someone has to win, right? The Chiefs played the Patriots tougher than many expected last week, but Brady's injury had something to do with that. The Raiders again rolled over for the Broncos.

PICK RECORDS
Last week: 3-0
Season: 3-0

NFL 2008: Week 1 forecast

What to look for in Week 1 of the NFL season? High scores.

Offenses typically have the element of surprise the first 2-3 weeks of the season. Once defenses get current film, scoring levels off. I expect this season to be no exception, particularly with the amount of players who sat out significant portions of the preseason.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Dallas at Cleveland: Are the Browns ready for national TV? A fashionable pick to advance into the playoffs, the Browns begin a rough schedule with a stern test. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have fortified their lineup with LB Zach Thomas and CB Adam Jones in addition to rookie RB Felix Jones in order to make a Super Bowl run. The key matchup will be can the Browns' upgraded defensive line stop RB Marion Barber and pressure QB Tony Romo. If so, this will be interesting. If not, Dallas will win going away. The pick: Cowboys win a tough one on the road.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Last year's NFC South champion visits the favorite to win it this season. The Saints, who were briefly displaced by Hurricane Gustav, should have added incentive to not repeat 2007's 0-4 start. It's easy to discount the Bucs, who are not a flashy team, but this will be stiff test for the Saints, who rate a big edge in offensive firepower. The pick: the Saints.

NY Jets at Miami: The Jets' old QB - Chad Pennington - faces their new one - Brett Favre (that still doesn't sound right). New York acted in free agency like a team that expects play deep into the playoffs (and that was before obtaining Favre last month). The Dolphins acted like a team starting over. Miami will be better this season, but not on this day. The pick: The Jets.

GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
Minnesota at Green Bay: The first half of the Monday doubleheader features someone other than Favre starting at quarterback for the Packers for the first time since September 1992. That would be Aaron Rodgers, whom you might have read about this summer. Expect the Vikings to bring pressure from all angles because the Packers feature an elite receiving core.

Houston at Pittsburgh: The Texans believe they're close to being a playoff team. The Steelers perennially are one. This could be a meaningful tie-breaker game at season's end in the tight AFC.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Detroit at Atlanta: These will be two of the worst teams in the NFL. Mark it down.

Kansas City at New England: The Chiefs are rebuilding. The Patriots are mad ... and extremely talented. Not a good combination for KC.

NFL 2008: NFC predictions

This is the second part of my regular-season predictions for the 2008 NFL season. We'll revisit these at the season's end.

NFC East
Overview: As if 13 Pro Bowl players wasn't enough, the Cowboys added two more in CB Adam Jones and LB Zach Thomas in the offseason, still Dallas has to win postseason games (plural). Losing 25 sacks due to retirement and injury won't help the Giants' defense, but don't sell the champs short, they could win this division. The Eagles addressed their needs in free agency and the draft, though another target for Donovan McNabb would have really helped. The Redskins could be very fun to watch but age is a factor on both lines.
1. Dallas: QB Tony Romo and Coach Wade Phillips need to break through in the postseason. RB Felix Jones was a great draft pick, but Dallas could use another quality receiver opposite Terrell Owens. There is no question the Cowboys are loaded at every other position.
2. N.Y. Giants: The G-men took a lot of hits on defense, so players such as DEs Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka and a new trio of safeties has to come up big. QB Eli Manning needs WRs Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith to stay healthy, and the bruising running game to pick up where it left off.
3. Philadelphia: The Eagles got younger and faster on defense, so expect defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to release the hounds. QB Donovan McNabb has a lot left in the tank, and he will prove it despite a dearth of receiving options.
4. Washington: A lot of questions in the capital. How will the players adapt to new coach Jim Zorn's system? Can the lines stay healthy? Is QB Jason Campbell fully recovered? Put Washington in any other division in this conference it likely would finish at least second, that's how strong the East is.

NFC North
Overview: This is a bizarre division. It's possible the worst team (Detroit) might have the best quarterback (Jon Kitna). Defense will be the rule of the day as Minnesota, Green Bay and Chicago all could be among the top 10 in the league. The Packers might regret trading Brett Favre and not having an experienced backup if Aaron Rodgers goes down to injury. The Bears need to avoid injuries that decimated their defense last season and get something, anything from their offense. The Lions could be better and have a worse record than last season.
1. Minnesota: You know the story. The Vikings led the league in rushing and rushing defense, but had the worst pass defense and fourth-worst passing game. DE Jared Allen and S Madieu Williams, when he heals, should help the former at least a little. The latter depends on whether QB Tavaris Jackson can limit his errors and make more plays, particularly to high-priced free-agent WR Bernard Berrian, who can stretch defenses but also drops a lot of balls.
2. Green Bay: Last season, the Packers had the second-best passing game. Given the depth and talent of their receiving core, it could be just as good ... if they had a quarterback with more than zero NFL starts. I think Rodgers will do reasonably well, but Brett Favre won games last season for the Packers, who need a full season of Ryan Grant's second-half of 2007 production.
3. Chicago: It's fashionable to blame the lack of production from former starting QB Rex Grossman for the Bears' offensive woes, but the reality was they were 30th in rushing. So rookie Matt Forte is the key for them. Given the secondary was without two starters nearly all season, expect the pass defense to improve.
4. Detroit: The Lions again turned over a significant portion of their roster, and many of the new faces on defense played for coach Rod Marinelli in Tampa Bay. That would have been great three or four years ago. The passing game should be very good if Kitna gets time to throw, but the combination of unproven running backs and a below-average line isn't a good combination.

NFC South
Overview: While the Saints say last season, which featured an 0-4 start after reaching the NFC title game in 2006, was an aberration, their offseason actions say otherwise. They obtained at least six new starters through trades, free agency and the draft. Say what you will about Jon Gruden winning with Tony Dungy's players, but that's no longer accurate. He and Bruce Allen are slowly rebuilding the Bucs from the trenches out. The Panthers' win totals for the past three seasons: 11-8-7. Notice a trend? Things have nowhere to go but up for the Falcons.
1. New Orleans: If RBs Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister are healthy, the Saints are loaded on offense. Drafting DT Sedrick Ellis and adding LBs Jonathon Vilma and Dan Morgan helps the defense. If the secondary is average, the Saints will win a lot more than they lose.
2. Tampa Bay: The Bucs might have the best young offensive line in the game, and their defensive line has the potential to be just as good. The back seven on defense also has young playmakers in LB Barrett Ruud and S Jermaine Phillips and Tanard Jackson. The cautious, ball-control approach on offense worked well last season. Think Ravens East, as long as the offense doesn't screw things up for the defense, the Bucs will be fine.
3. Carolina: As ridiculous as it would have sounded a few years ago, this is probably a make-or-break year for Coach John Fox and several players, DE Julius Peppers to name one. Carolina's offense was predictably sunk when QB Jake Delhomme blew out his throwing elbow, but the defense's falloff, particularly up front, was baffling. Rookie T Jef Otah and RB Jonathon Stewart will have to play prominent roles.
4. Atlanta: The Falcons make no bones about it, they're starting from scratch with a new coach, QB, RB and a few new OL parts. Most of their veteran players were let go in the offseason, and given neither offense nor defense were in the top two-thirds of the NFL, that probably wasn't a bad idea.

NFC West
Overview: The Seahawks are one of the more solid teams in the conference, particularly on defense, they have the division's best quarterback and coach. The Cardinals are a fashionable breakout pick, but I don't see it. If the 49ers aren't better - a lot better - expect another house cleaning by the Bay. The Rams have a lot of holes on defense and on the offensive line, which overshadows a decent group of skill players.
1. Seattle: Say this for the Seahawks, they have been consistently good under Holmgren, making the playoffs the past five seasons. This year should be no different as Seattle has good balance on both sides of the ball. If the running back by committee of Julius Jones, Maurice Morris and TJ Duckett is effective, it will offset injuries to WRs Bobby Engram and Deion Branch. The defense has stars and depth at all three position groups.
2. Arizona: Turnovers and penalties undermined the Cardinals again and again last season. The offense is full of playmakers and the line is improved. The defense has to improve against the pass (it was 28th), and it has the potential to do so with the return of S Adrian Wilson (heel injury), the move of Antrell Rolle to safety and the drafting of CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
3. San Francisco: It doesn't say a lot for former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith that journeyman JT O'Sullivan beat him out in Mike Martz's QB-friendly offense. The NFL's worst offense in 2007, the 49ers have handed the keys to Martz and brought one of his most reliable players in WR Isaac Bruce. RB Frank Gore must stay healthy. The defense gives up a lot of yards, but not as many points as one would assume. It has the personnel to be a lot better.
4. St. Louis: The Rams can't possibly have as many injuries as they had last season, can they? The offense is in good hands with QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson and WR Torry Holt. The defense, however, needs a massive upgrade, and aside from rookie DE Chris Long, didn't get it. Turnovers also were a huge problem.

Playoff teams: Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans, Seattle, N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia or Green Bay

NFL 2008: AFC predictions

Happy Labor Day weekend. All you NFL widows, enjoy it while you can because the nation's largest TV sport returns Thursday night.

I want to follow my preseason division-by-division breakdowns with my 2008 predictions, which I will revisit at the end of the year and compare with other experts' prognostications.

Each week during the NFL season I will preview a selection of upcoming games, usually on Thursday or Friday, and then recap the weekend's action upon its completion.

Without further ado ... my AFC predictions. Teams are listed in the order of finish with a comment following each.

AFC East
Overview: There is no question in my mind the Patriots will be Super Bowl contenders again, and they've won with less talented teams. I am tempted to place the Bills ahead of the Jets, but I do think Brett Favre and rebuilt lines will help the Jets. The Dolphins could be a very tough opponent by the end of the season.

1. New England: The offense will be unstoppable again, and adding RB LaMont Jordan was a smart move. If the secondary's new parts come together, this team will win 14 or 15 games again.
2. New York Jets: Favre helps, but G Alan Faneca and NT Kris Jenkins help at least as much. They need RB Thomas Jones to have a big year to have a shot at the playoffs.
3. Buffalo: Very good young talent all over the roster. RB Marshawn Lynch is the real deal, but now that the league has the book on QB Trent Edwards I'm curious how he does this season.
4. Miami: The talent level is better, the quarterbacking is way better thanks the Jets' gift of Chad Pennington, and I have a hunch RB Ricky Williams is going to be comeback player of the year.

AFC North
Overview: The Browns are the fashionable pick, but I wouldn't be stunned if they finish in third place. In terms of winning, Ben Roethlisberger is the best QB in this division, and isn't that what counts? Given that this team draws the NFC East this season, it's tough to imagine more than one playoff team coming from here as the four teams beat each other silly all season.

1. Pittsburgh: I like their defense. I think their passing game has a lot of upside with a maturing Santonio Holmes and rookie Limas Sweed. And they're deeper at running back with rookie Rashard Mendenhall. One issue is depth, so if injuries hit hard they'll drop.
2. Cleveland: Last season the Browns upgraded their offensive line. This past offseason it was the defense's turn with the addition of DE Corey Williams and DT Shaun Rodgers. The passing game should be strong, but what if Jamal Lewis breaks down? The back seven on defense is going to have generate a lot more turnovers and not be so porous vs. the pass for the Browns to play beyond December.
3. Cincinnati: This is a tough team for me to peg. Their defense should be better - it certainly has more talent and coordinator Mike Zimmer should make the most of it. QB Carson Palmer has to take better care of the ball and his WR core has to get healthy. Don't be surprised to see Chris Perry replace Rudi Johnson at RB.
4. Baltimore: The defense, despite some age and injury concerns at corner, should be solid. But if RB Willis McGahee is injured, it won't matter. It's tough to see how they can win with any of their quarterbacks and a very suspect receiving group.

AFC South
Overview: Can anyone end the Colts' run of five consecutive division titles? I think so. Indy has a lot of injury concerns, and as the playoffs demonstrated, they're not deep enough withstand overly physical teams. If Jacksonville's receiving core steps up, look out, the Jags seemingly have everything else in place. Jeff Fisher could be coach of the year most seasons for the job he does with the Titans, who again seem to have some holes, especially on offense. The Texans are cursed to be in the conference's toughest division.

1. Jacksonville: The Jags had a chance to take the Patriots out in the playoffs, and with a bit more balance on offense, they could do it this season. Excellent running game and solid turnover margin are usually a winning formula.
2. Indianapolis: Manning, Freeney, Harrison, Sanders - not names one likes to see on the injury report, but all of them will be there to start the season. If the Colts get off to a blazing start it could go a long way to proving that preseason is meaningless. I don't see the Colts having the depth to hold up against a tough schedule.
3. Tennessee: This is a key season for this franchise - either Vince Young is the answer at quarterback or he isn't. The defense will be stout, and the Titans could have a very good one-two punch at running back in LenDale White and Chris Johnson.
4. Houston: The Texans are improving, and they might shock me and leap into third in the division and challenge for a playoff spot. However, they have some secondary issues and need some bounce-back years from RBs Ahman Green and Chris Brown to take the heat off of the passing game.

AFC West
Overview: The Chargers are primed for a Super Bowl run. The key for them is making it through the playoffs healthy. That might have been the difference between them knocking off New England in last season's conference championship game. The Raiders have a lot of young talent in their backfield on all over their defense, and they've been so bad for so long they're going to catch some teams sleeping. I expect the Broncos' slide to continue, and the Chiefs are too young to make much noise this year, but blowing it up was the right approach.

1. San Diego: If TE Antonio Gates is healthy, look out. The offense should score in bunches. The defense is loaded, too, though the situation with LB Shawn Merriman's knee is worrisome.
2. Oakland: My surprise team pick. Yes, the offensive line might be sub par and QB JaMarcus Russell is going to be up and down, but this team has a ton of talent, and if their defense can stop the run better, watch out.
3. Denver: The Broncos have problems on both lines, some holes in the middle of the defense, and who will run the ball? QB Jay Cutler should move into the echelon just below Manning and Brady this season.
4. Kansas City: A lot of good young talent and a healthy Larry Johnson will be cause for optimism. But the Chiefs have the NFL's worst quarterback situation and a bad offensive line, which is a shame because TE Tony Gonzalez is an elite player and WR Dwayne Bowe could develop into one.

Playoff teams: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, San Diego, Indianapolis and either Jets or Bills.

NFL 2008 predictions, part I

The Magazines have spoken, at least the ones that I trust, about the 2008 NFL season. What follows are their projections for the upcoming season, which kicks off in a week.

Pro Football Weekly (which joined forces with CBSSports.com) predicts New England beating Dallas in the Super Bowl.
Here is its division-by-division breakdown:
AFC East
1. New England; 2. Buffalo; 3. NY Jets; 4. Miami
AFC North
1. Cleveland; 2. Pittsburgh; 3. Cincinnati; 4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Houston; 4. Tennessee
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Oakland; 4. Kansas City
NFC East
1. Dallas; 2. NY Giants; 3. Philadelphia; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Green Bay; 2. Minnesota; 3. Chicago; 4. Detroit
NFC South
1. New Orleans; 2. Carolina; 3. Tampa Bay; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. Arizona; 3. St. Louis; 4. San Francisco

Analysis: I wonder about Cleveland and Green Bay winning their divisions, and there are some orders of division picks that I question.

The Sporting News, which merged with Street and Smith's, sees the Chargers defeating Dallas in the Super Bowl.
AFC East
1. New England; 2. NY Jets; 3. Buffalo; 4. Miami
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh; 2. Cincinnati; 3. Cleveland; 4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Tennessee; 4. Houston
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Kansas City; 4. Oakland
NFC East
1. Dallas; 2. NY Giants; 3. Philadelphia; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Green Bay; 2. Chicago; 3. Minnesota; 4. Detroit
NFC South
1. New Orleans; 2. Tampa Bay; 3. Carolina; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. St. Louis; 3. Arizona; 4. San Francisco

Analysis: Of the three, this is the most solid to me with a few exceptions. I don't see the Rams or Bengals finishing nearly that high or the Vikings that low.

And Sports Illustrated foresees New England defeating Philadelphia in the Super Bowl
AFC East
1. New England; 2. NY Jets; 3. Buffalo; 4. Miami
AFC North
1.Pittsburgh; 2. Cleveland; 3. Baltimore; 4. Cincinnati
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Tennessee; 4. Houston
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Kansas City; 4. Oakland
NFC East
1. Philadelphia; 2. Dallas; 3. NY Giants; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Minnesota; 2. Green Bay; 3. Detroit; 4. Chicago
NFC South
1. Tampa Bay; 2. Carolina; 3. New Orleans; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. Arizona; 3. San Francisco; 4. St. Louis

Analysis: Every season SI should preface Dr. Z's picks by disclosing his heavy East Coast bias. How else does one explain the Eagles winning the NFC East over Dallas? Putting Tennessee in the playoffs again this year seems a reach to me, too.

Consensus division winners:
AFC East - New England
AFC South - Indianapolis
AFC West - San Diego
NFC West - Seattle
Other consensus playoff teams - NY Giants, Jacksonville, Dallas.

Coming up: My AFC and NFC breakdowns and predictions

Taking a Look at the NFC West

This is the last in a series of preseason looks at each NFL division.

Teams listed in alphabetical order

ARIZONA CARDINALS

2007 Record: 8-8

The Forecast: Partly Sunny

The Cardinals took some positive steps under rookie coach Ken Whisenhunt in 2007, but questions still exist. Arizona must improve its running game (29th), particularly if one or both of its QBs (Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner) go down to injury again. The run defense was solid, but the pass defense left a lot to be desired (28th). The Cardinals drafted CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the first round and should have S Adrian Wilson healthy, which will help. Wilson drives the birds' defense.

It Will Be A Cold Winter in the Desert If: The Cardinals can't cut way down on their mistakes (penalties and turnovers) and Leinart fails to develop as hoped.

ST. LOUIS RAMS

2007 Record: 3-13

The Forecast: Mostly Cloudy

Who would have thought the Rams defense (21st) would finish ranked higher than the offense (24th)? That's what happened as injuries tore the offensive line apart, and kept QB Marc Bulger running for his life. One bright spot was RB Steven Jackson, who despite missing five games with injuries topped 1,000 yards. WR Torry Holt overcame knee problems to post yet another 1,000-yard season. The Rams are building a good defensive line with first-round pick Chris Long joining last season's No. 1, Adam Carriker, but the back seven other than LB Will Witherspoon is below average.

There Will Be Trouble in River City If: Jackson's holdout lasts much longer, and the offensive line can't protect Bulger.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

2007 Record: 5-11

The Forecast: Partly Cloudy, perhaps some sun at times

The 49ers again invested heavily in improving their defense, adding free-agent DE Justin Smith and drafting DT Kentwan Balmer. That should help a very good set of linebackers, led by Patrick Willis and Manny Lawson. The real problem by the Bay was a lack of offense. The 49ers had the league's worst - statistically - and despite the signings of WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson, it's tough to see the passing game improving unless a QB emerges and RB Frank Gore returns to his 2006 form.

Even Montana or Young Might Not Be Able to Save the Niners If: All their high-priced talent on defense doesn't start playing like it, the running game doesn't re-emerge and nobody catches the ball.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

2007 Record: 10-6

The Forecast: Mostly sunny, some clouds possible

How will things work out now that Coach Mike Holmgren has announced this is final season? The Seahawks' opportunistic defense has elite players in every position group, and it is stacked at linebacker. Seattle's formula was simple - create turnovers and pressure quarterbacks, and it worked well until the playoffs. The offense is in good hands with QB Matt Hasselbeck, but whom will he throw to? WRs Bobby Engram and Deion Branch are hurt and DJ Hackett left as a free agent. Also gone is RB Shaun Alexander, replaced by the trio of Julius Jones, TJ Duckett and Maurice Morris. It is not unprecedented for a Holmgren-coached team to have success with a RB-by-committee approach (see Green Bay 1996).

Expect It To Pour If: No one emerges at WR and the revamped running game can't generate enough yards to keep defenses honest.

Coming up: Season predictions by conference and division. Once the regular season begins, I will resume my weekly previews and recaps.

Taking a Look at the NFC South

Teams listed in alphabetical order.

ATLANTA FALCONS
2007 record: 4-12
The forecast: Mostly cloudy
Look up overhaul in the dictionary and the Falcons' logo should appear. They have a new coach (Mike Smith), new QB (rookie Matt Ryan), new RB (Michael Turner) and new K (Jason Elam). The team got rid of virtually every veteran on its roster, including CB DeAngelo Hall, TE Algie Crumpler, RB Warrick Dunn, LB Demorrio Williams and DT Rod Coleman. Yes, the Falcons had a good draft, but they have a long way to go in what should be a competitive division.
The Temperature Will Rise in Hot-lanta If: The offensive line doesn't improve (it allowed nearly 50 sacks and fewer than 100 yards rushing per game), someone doesn't step up to replace all the departed playmakers on defense and Turner stumbles in his first crack at a starting job.

CAROLINA PANTHERS
2007 record: 7-9
The forecast: Partly cloudy, some sun possible
The Panthers' 2007 season essentially ended when QB Jake Delhomme was lost for the season with an elbow injury. Carolina's passing game was nearly non-existent after that, despite the presence of WR Steve Smith (who has been suspended for the team's first two games because of a training camp fight). This is a pivotal season in Carolina. The Panthers' record has declined two seasons in a row, and their usually reliable defense did not generate sacks or turnovers last season at its typical pace.
Carolina Will Be Blue All Over If: Delhomme isn't healthy, the offensive line doesn't gel and the defensive line can't bring the heat.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
2007 record: 7-9
The forecast: Mostly sunny
An 0-4 start and a season-ending knee injury to RB Deuce McAllister left the Saints reeling in '07. McAllister should be back, meaning RB Reggie Bush can be more of situational back, which seems to be the role he excels in. Adding TE Jeremy Shockey via trade and a young fleet of receivers give QB Drew Brees plenty of targets. The Saints also shored up their front seven on defense by adding DT Sedrick Ellis in the draft, trading for LB Jonathan Vilma and signing LB Dan Morgan. The real question is will the secondary improve - the Saints were 30th in pass defense and managed just 13 picks.
More Blues on Bourbon Street If: McAllister has lost it and the ground game suffers again, and the pass defense remains pourous.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
2007 record: 9-7
The forecast: Mostly sunny
The Bucs rode an efficient offense and a solid defense, particularly against the pass, to a playoff berth for the second time in three seasons. This came despite the potential career-ending injury suffered by RB Carnell Williams. Earnest Graham emerged in Williams' place, and Warrick Dunn returned. QB Jeff Garcia was accurate and largely mistake-free, and he needed to be given the lack of playmaking targets outside of ageless WR Joey Galloway. Both of the Bucs' lines are young, deep and talented, and the other defensive position groups are well-stocked.
The Pirate Ship Will Sink If: Garcia gets hurt or is adversely affected by the team's reported pursuit of Brett Favre and no playmakers emerge on offense.

Next: NFC West

Greener pastures for Favre?

This morning it hit me - for the first time since 1992 Brett Favre will not suit up for the Green Bay Packers.

Yes, he "retired" in March, but the drama of the past few weeks had led me to believe - quite incorrectly - that he would be back with the Pack in 2008. I wrote as much a couple of days ago, going so far as to predict that Favre's return to the team would mean the end of the Aaron Rodgers era before it even got started. I was very wrong and apologies to Mr. Rodgers for that speculation.

Now that Favre is a Jet, I'd like to analyze the deal and what it means for all parties involved.

1. For the Jets:
They get a quarterback who is a proven winner and has a big arm. In recent days, Favre has seemed motivated to play this season, and the Jets restocked their lines during free agency. Much talk since the deal was reported has centered on their playoff possibilities.
Now the bad news. Favre will be 39 in October, he has a history of struggling in New York, and he not only must learn a new offense, but he has to adjust to a completely new set of teammates, and he goes from the NFL's smallest market to the center of its media universe.

For Favre:
He gets his wish. He is out of Green Bay and gets to play football this season. However, he can't be happy with how all of this has unfolded. If anything it's short-term relief, at least until he discovers that the Jets' receiving core is not nearly as talented as the one he left, and the media glare in the Big Apple is 10 times brighter than in Wisconsin. He will help the Jets, but he left a far more talented team.
His desire to "stick it" to the Packers this season could only be accomplished in the Super Bowl, something I view as highly unlikely for either team at this point.

For the Packers:
General Manager Ted Thompson and Coach Mike McCarthy will be judged, fair or not, by whether Aaron Rodgers can not only return the Packers to the playoffs but win some games. And Favre's success or lack thereof in New York also factors into it. Thompson has stakes his career on this. But is it fair to judge him on this alone? Yes, he didn't show much flexibility or compassion, but since he arrived in Wisconsin as GM he has had a single-minded approach to build a longterm winner. The Packers' depth and talent levels have improved dramatically the past two seasons, and if Rodgers pans out (or one of the rookie QBs behind him does), Green Bay should be a playoff team for years to come. ...
McCarthy is the one person in this entire process who impressed me. He stood in the middle of the storm day after day, answered questions honestly, he had the fortitude to ask Favre the tough questions without being threatening about it, and he kept the well-being of his team ahead of the well-being of one player. ...
The Packers also gain a conditional draft choice that should at least turn into a third-rounder, and if the Jets reach the playoffs and Favre plays more than three quarters of their offensive snaps (not a stretch), could become a second. That is a decent return for a player whose career was thought to be over five months ago. ...
For the Packers players, especially Rodgers, this is closure. They can return to the business of preparing for the upcoming season, which really is what training camp should be all about.

For the rest of the league:
The NFL couldn't be happier to have both a Super Bowl Champion and the league's most recognizable player both in New York City. And I would not be shocked if the league itself played a role in facilitating this deal given the commissioner's early involvement with Favre and the Packers. Yes, conspiracy theory, but it wouldn't surprise me given how all of this has played out. ...
The AFC East becomes a bit more interesting, though I question whether the Jets will challenge the Patriots for the division title. The Jets are helped by an easy schedule, but anything more than a 9-7 record would shock me. I don't know if 9-7 gets New York into the AFC playoffs or not. ...
The NFC North will be more competitive as well. However, it should be noted the Packers lost to the Bears twice with Favre last season, and the Vikings still have question marks at quarterback and in the secondary.

Favre: Who's the Boss?

The summer drama that has been Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers took another turn Sunday when it was reported the legendary quarterback is returning to the team Monday and likely will participate in practice as soon as Tuesday.

What forced the Packers to have a change in heart to welcome Favre back?

The possibility of having their most popular player in another uniform might have finally been too much for the Packers braintrust to stomach. Perhaps Favre told them he would play more than one season (more on this in a bit), thus ending the annual offseason game of cat and mouse.

What role did their inability to trade him play in this?

There is a saying that sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make. Trading Favre to another NFC team such as the Bucs would have been bad, to an intra-division rival such as the Bears or Vikings disastrous, and in the Badger State, unforgivable. There is no question the Packers wanted to trade Favre at some point, however their reported demands also made it clear they preferred he just stayed retired.

What role did Favre play in this, meaning did he state unwaveringly that he wants to play football?

My guess, and it's only that, is he agreed to play more than one season if the Packers took him back. He clearly wants to play football, and he clearly wants to win another Super Bowl. He's never wavered from that latter statement. Favre forced the Packers' hand by saying he'd only accept a trade to Minnesota, which would be completely unacceptable to GM Ted Thompson, demoralizing to the Packers players and the end of the world for a vast majority of Packers fans.

What does this mean for Aaron Rodgers?

Probably the end of his Packers career. There is no question in my mind that Favre will beat him out for the starting job. No matter how it's couched, Rodgers can't be happy, and he will walk when his rookie contract expires after the 2009 season. Barring a Favre injury, I doubt Rodgers will play much more this season than in years past.

And what about the Packers chances this season?

On some level, the Packers management team must believe they're very close to winning a Super Bowl, and I don't think anyone believes Rodgers will give them a better chance this season than Favre. Assuming Favre is fit and healthy, he still has more than a month to prepare for the regular season. The Packers' signing of Ryan Grant over the weekend helps, and reports on the team's scrimmage Sunday night said the secondary looks vastly improved. So the Packers will be one of the NFC's better teams, but I don't know if they can overcome Dallas or New York, both of which I anticipate being better this season.

What about the future?

If Favre plays this season, the Packers probably will look to prepare second-round draft choice Brian Brohm and/or seventh-round pick Matt Flynn to take over for Favre. If Favre has committed to two more seasons, and I suspect he has, then it would not surprise me to see the Packers trade Rodgers at the draft next spring.

But, like everyone else, I'm getting ahead of myself. Four and a half more weeks until the season starts.

Taking a Look at the NFC North

Teams listed in alphabetical order.

CHICAGO BEARS
2007 record: 7-9
The Forecast: Partly sunny with some clouds
Can a team win with a potentially great defense and a likely marginal offense? Aside from rookie RB Matt Forte and second-year TE Greg Olson, the Bears' offense lacks playmakers. Re-signing LB Lance Briggs and keeping S Mike Brown, CB Nathan Vasher and DTs Tommie Harris and Dusty Dvoraceck healthy could usher in another dominant Bears defense.
That Won't Be Wind Howling If: The Bears don't get something from their passing game and the middle part of the defense can't stay healthy.

DETROIT LIONS
2007 record: 7-9
The Forecast: Cloudy, with a chance of sun
The defense needed a lot of help, and that is what the Lions addressed in free agency and somewhat in the draft. None of the position groups stand out, though DT Cory Redding has Pro Bowl ability and LB Ernie Sims is not far behind. Subtracting DT Shaun Rodgers and adding CB Leigh Bodden were good moves. The passing game could be special with WRs Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams, but who will run the ball?
Look for More Layoffs in Detroit If: The Lions don't show significant improvement and at least contend for a playoff spot.

GREEN BAY PACKERS
2007 record: 13-3
The Forecast: Sun mixed with possible storms
After a surprisingly promising 2007 season ended on a sour note in the NFC Championship game, the news has gone from bad to worse in the land of wholesome dairy products. First QB Brett Favre retired, then shortly before camp started he decided not to retire. Compounding matters has been the club's stance that they've moved on to Aaron Rodgers as their QB. But enough of that. The Packers have rebuilt a lot of depth through the past three drafts, and it's become apparent they might have the deepest group of WRs in the league. They're strong on the lines and at linebacker as well. If RB Ryan Grant's holdout ends soon, their ground game is in good hands. If not, Rodgers will have another tough hand to play. The defense needs better safety play and a return to health at the DT spot, otherwise it's very solid.
Cheeseheads Will Melt If: Favre plays for another team, Grant has a lengthy holdout, Rodgers can't justify the team's faith in him or injuries, which the Packers largely avoided in '07, hit this time around.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
2007 record: 8-8
The Forecast: Partly sunny
A popular choice as a playoff contender, the Vikings turned over significant parts of their roster in hopes of upgrading their pass defense and passing game. WR Bernard Berrian has the speed the Vikings have lacked since saying good-bye to Randy Moss, but he's nowhere near the caliber of player Moss is. S Madieu Williams will help the secondary, but unless another newcomer, DE Jared Allen, massively upgrades the pass rush, teams might still be able to exploit Minnesota's secondary. The running game offers no such worries with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor giving the Vikings the top 1-2 combination in the league. The offensive improvement will hinge on QB Tavaris Jackson's improvement, and he has the tools to do so.
The 10,000 Lakes Might Freeze Early If: Jackson regresses, Peterson gets hurt or the high-priced talent that was brought in doesn't live up their contracts.

Next: The NFC South

Taking a Look at the NFC East

Teams listed in alphabetical order.

DALLAS COWBOYS
2007 record: 13-3
The Forecast: Sunny
The Cowboys easily are one of the NFL's most talented teams, as evidenced by their 13 Pro Bowl selections this past season. And they've added more talent in LB Zach Thomas (if he's healthy), CB Adam Jones (if he's not suspended) and rookie RB Felix Jones and rookie CB Mike Jenkins. If there is one position group the Cowboys lack depth, it is in their receiving core because if either WR Terrell Owens or TE Jason Witten goes down, QB Tony Romo's options shrink exponentially.
Brace for a Texas-sized Tantrum If: The Cowboys can't snap an 11-season winless string in the postseason.

NEW YORK GIANTS
2007 record: 10-6
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
Yes, the Giants lost DE Michael Strahan to retirement, traded TE Jeremy Shockey and lost LB Kawika Mitchell and S Gibril Wilson in free agency. However, this is a team that ran the table in the playoffs - all on the road - and established itself as a tough, physical team. QB Eli Manning has proven he's for real, and the Giants have a ground game where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. One situation to watch is the health and attitude of WR Plaxico Burress, who was a difference maker in 2007.
There Will Be No Repeat If: The Giants don't win more than three games at home and pull out another strong finish (three of their final five games are within the division, and the other two are against what should be improved Minnesota and Carolina teams).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
2007 record: 8-8
The Forecast: Mix of sun and clouds
The Eagles are a team that basically beat themselves last season with turnovers and poor special teams play. QB Donovan McNabb played reasonably well coming off a torn ACL, but the Eagles struggled to score TDs in the red zone despite the presence of Brian Westbrook, who pound for pound might be the toughest RB in the league. The defense has several young players who improved last season, so that shouldn't be an issue.
The Endangered Species List Will Grow If: The McNabb of old doesn't appear weekly, no receivers step up and Westbrook gets injured.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2007 record: 9-7
The Forecast: Clouds with more sun as the season goes on
The Redskins rallied to reach the playoffs after the murder of S Sean Taylor and enduring numerous injuries. It was a testament to the coaching of former Coach Joe Gibbs as much as anything. New Coach Jim Zorn will have his work cut out for him, particularly if QB Jason Campbell is not recovered from a knee injury. The skill positions on offense otherwise are loaded, and the defense was bolstered by the recent addition of DE Jason Taylor, who along with Andre Carter, gives Washington an imposing outside pass rush.
Brace for Capital Punishment If: Campbell falters and the secondary and grizzled offensive line sustain any injuries.

Next up: NFC North

Taking a Look at the AFC West

Time to take a look around the AFC West Division
(teams are listed in alphabetical order)

DENVER BRONCOS
2007 record: 7-9
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Mostly cloudy
After the first losing record in Mike Shanahan's lengthy tenure in the Mile High City, the Broncos turned over a significant portion of their roster, but it's not the free agents who will make the big difference. The Broncos need recent high draft picks such as QB Jake Cutler, TE Tony Sheffler, T Ryan Clady, WR Eddie Royal and DLs Marcus Thomas, Tim Crowder and Jarvis Moss to play up to their draft positions. Denver has a lot of holes on its lines, and that was particularly reflected in its inability to stop the run last season.
Expect an Avalanche If: Cutler doesn't become a difference maker, the ground game sputters - now minus Travis Henry, who was released this summer - and the defense's young players don't take a step forward.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2007 record: 4-12
Camp opens: July 24
The Forecast: Cloudy, rain may be heavy at times
What do you have when you combine the second-worst offense with the fourth-worst rushing defense? Factor in that most of the team's veterans were shown the door in the offseason and the quarterback was unimpressive in his audition. Add to that one of the team's two stars - DE Jared Allen - was traded and the other - RB Larry Johnson - missed half of the season because of injuries. Despite a bonanza at the draft table, do you get the impression that I'm not real excited about the Chiefs' prospects this season?
There Will Be No KC Masterpiece If: Johnson gets hurt again and the passing game can't at least keep defenses honest.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
2007 record: 4-12
Camp opens: July 24
The Forecast: Cloudy, chance of sun at times
For every good move this team makes - drafting QB JaMarcus Russell and S Michael Huff in successive years and trading for CB DeAngelo Hall - there a series of mystifying moves, such as picking another RB (Darren McFadden) when three starting-caliber ones were on the roster, signing DL Tommy Kelly to a record-setting contract and paying more big money to WR Javon Walker, whose injury and personal histories have not be sparkling of late. Still, this is a team with a lot of talent. If Coach Lane Kiffin can continue to build a winning culture, Russell matures and the defense tightens up, the Raiders have the look of a surprise team.
Expect Al Davis' Wrath If: The defense doesn't improve against the run and the Raiders don't at least contend for a playoff spot.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
2007 record: 11-5
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Sunny
There should be no more questions about Norv Turner's coaching. The Bolts rebounded from a 3-3 start to win the West going away, and they came within one game of reaching the Super Bowl despite injuries to RB LaDainian Tomlinson, QB Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates. Obviously, the health of those three and center Nick Hardwick and NT Jamal Williams are of paramount importance. With a full training camp to get integrated into the Chargers' system, expect WR Chris Chambers to be even more valuable. This is a team with no major weaknesses, one primed for another long playoff run.
Expect a Tsunami If: Any of the key players are injured again at playoff time. For San Diego and its fans, it's Super Bowl or bust.

Next: NFC East

Taking a look at the AFC South

Taking a look at the AFC South Division as training camp opens
(Teams listed in alphabetical order)

HOUSTON TEXANS
2007 record: 8-8
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, chance for periods of sun
The Texans are slowly establishing a solid offense. That it was 14th in the NFL last season despite injuries to QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson is a testament to both Coach Gary Kubiak and the club's ability to gradually upgrade perpetual trouble spots such as the line and receiving depth. Houston needs someone from among injury-prone Ahman Green and Chris Brown or rookie Steve Slaton to step up in the running game. The defense has outstanding players in DE Mario Williams and LB DeMeco Ryans, but just not enough of them.
The Price of Texas T Will Plummet If: No one steps up in the running game and CB Dunta Robinson (out first half of season because of a knee injury) can't make it back in 2008.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
2007 record: 13-3
Camp opens: July 24
The Forecast: Sunny
Like the swallows returning to San Juan Capistrano annually, the Colts will win at least 12 games if QB Peyton Manning is healthy. And this year, that is not a given because of his recent knee surgery. The Colts have talent at every position, but maybe not the depth to absorb the injuries like they had last year, especially WR Marvin Harrison and DE Dwight Freeney. It also doesn't help that TE Dallas Clark and S Bob Sanders get nicked a lot. Still, Indy always reloads, and for a team that is rightly considered an offensive powerhouse, people forget the Colts had the No. 3 defense WITHOUT Freeney in 2007.
The Road Will Be Rough If: Manning misses more than a game or two because of his injury. With all the injuries the Colts endured last season, he and Sanders are the team's most indispensable players.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
2007 record: 11-5
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Sunny
The Jags are a team with few, if any, discernable weaknesses. QB David Garrard is efficient and can make plays in the clutch, the running game is punishing, and the receivers have been upgraded. Both lines are solid, as are the linebackers and special teams. Jacksonville addressed its needs in the offseason (WR and DL) and is a physical club that does not make many mistakes. This is a club positioned to not only challenge the Colts but make a Super Bowl run.
Jaguars Go on Endangered Species List If: The D line is young, so injuries to veterans there or to Garrard would hurt.

TENNESSEE TITANS
2007 record: 10-6
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Partly sunny, some clouds
A funny thing happened on the way to rebuilding, the Titans won four of their final five games to make the playoffs. Their defense is outstanding, especially against the run. Adding rookie RB Chris Johnson and pairing him with the emerging LenDale White should ensure the Titans' ground game is solid. Really, any gains the Titans make are tied to QB Vince Young and a barely average receiving core. The Titans receivers caught only eight TD passes all of 2007. 17 PLAYERS caught more.
The Grand Ole Oprey Is Safe But: If Young (9-17 TD-INT ration in '07) doesn't improve it's tough to see Tennessee repeating last season's playoff berth.

Next: AFC West

Taking a look at the AFC North

A look at the AFC North as training camp begins
(Teams are listed in alphabetical order)

BALTIMORE RAVENS
2007 record: 5-11
Camp opens: July 23
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, chance of sun
The Ravens sustained two huge losses in the offseason due to retirements - QB Steve McNair and LT Jon Ogden. Both are Hall of Fame candidates and were leaders for the Ravens. Rookie Joe Flacco, second-year man Troy Smith and veteran Kyle Boller will battle to replace McNair. Though the head coach changed, the defense's aggressive style won't because coordinator Rex Ryan was retained. New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will maximize RB Willis McGahee's talents.
The Nevermore Cry Will Go Out If: None of the three candidates emerges at quarterback and injuries beset TE Todd Heap and the secondary again.

CINCINNATI BENGALS
2007 record: 7-9
Camp opens: July 27
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, chance for sun
The Bengals again invested heavily in defense in the draft and free agency, but they also lost two of their better players as UFAs (DE Justin Smith and S Madieu Williams). Given their defense was 27th last season, maybe that's not bad. Now that WR Chad Johnson says he'll play in Cincinnati this season, the Carson Palmer-directed passing game again should be potent. Three of the top four running backs battled serious injuries last season, and Rudi Johnson seems to have slowed.
It Will Get Muggy in the Jungle If: The defense - particularly against the pass - again struggles and the passing game has to do it all for the offense.

CLEVELAND BROWNS
2007 record: 10-6
Camp opens: July 23
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
Optimism is running high in Cleveland, and with good reason. Derek Anderson emerged at QB, Jamal Lewis re-emerged at RB, and WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow stayed healthy and proved they have the talent to join the elite classes at their positions. Add an improving line and WR Donte' Stallworth to the mix and firepower shouldn't be the problem. Defense, however, was in 2007. The Browns also added DTs Shaun Rodgers (a beast when motivated) and Corey Williams via trades. Dealing CB Leigh Bodden in the Rodgers deal might haunt them if Rodgers plays as he has the past few seasons in Detroit.
It Will Be a Long Winter on the Lake If: Anderson falls off and backup Brady Quinn isn't ready and the Browns get off to a slow start because of their brutal schedule.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2007 record: 10-6
Camp opens: July 27
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
The Steelers, particularly QB Ben Roethlisberger, were better than expected under new coach Mike Tomlin last season. Now the expectations have been raised, and most would consider Big Ben among the league's elite QBs. The offense should be fine with a fleet of emerging receivers and the addition of rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall to Speedy Willie Parker. The linebacking core again should be excellent. However, this team is not as deep as Steelers teams of the past, particularly along the lines. Losing All-Pro G Alan Faneca in free agency will really hurt.
The Three Rivers Will Freeze Over If: There are a lot of injuries, especially on either line, and the team can't navigate the league's toughest schedule.

Taking a look at the AFC East

A look at the AFC East as training camp opens
(teams listed in alphabetical order)

BUFFALO BILLS
2007 record: 7-9
Open camp: July 25
The Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance for sunshine.
The Bills can't be racked by injuries as they were last season (17 players finished the season on IR), can they? Drafting WR James Hardy will help take some heat off Lee Evans, and the continued maturation of RB Marshawn Lynch and QB Trent Edwards should help improve an offense that was ranked 30th overall last season. If offseason acquistion DT Marcus Stroud is healthy and rookie CB Leodis McKelvin makes a seemless transition to the NFL, the defense should be even better.
It Will Be a Long Winter If: Neither Edwards nor JP Losman can inject any life into the passing game because Lynch will face stacked defenses.

MIAMI DOLPHINS
2007 record: 1-15
Open camp: July 25
The Forecast: Showers, might be heavy at times.
The Dolphins have nowhere to go but up. However, despite all of the new regime's offseason moves, which included this week's trade of their best player - Jason Taylor - to Washington, there are some serious holes at every skill position. If RB Ronnie Brown is healthy and Ricky Williams bounces back, they could have a decent ground game. The popular line of thinking is they'll play harder and tougher, but this team has a long way to go in upgrading its talent level to compete for a playoff spot.
Board Up the Windows If: The Fish can't run the ball effectively and thus control the clock. Their passing game and defense seem very suspect

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2007 record: 16-0, lost in Super Bowl 42
Open camp: July 21
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
Despite having much of the same personnel as last season's undefeated team, the Patriots aren't drawing nearly the attention that they should, which I think will make them all the more dangerous. Their offense again will be among the league's best, and their defensive line is the NFL's best three-man unit.
There Will Be No Tea Party If: The Patriots can't adequately fill several holes in their secondary and get faster in their back seven on defense.

NEW YORK JETS
2007 record: 4-12
Open camp: July 23
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, with some sun mixed in
The Jets were one of the most aggressive and biggest spenders in free agency. Additions such as G Alan Faneca, T Damian Woody, DT Kris Jenkins and LB Calvin Pace address pressing needs and should tighten a porous run defense and enhance the ground game. Will it be enough to return to the playoffs?
The Subway Won't Be Safe if: All of the money spent in free agency doesn't add 5-6 more wins and neither Kellen Clemens nor Chad Pennington is the answer at QB.

Next: The AFC North

Stay tuned for Football 2008

Training camps are starting to open, and with them will come my annual camp previews.

I run down each division, usually one per day. And this year I may experiment with audio analysis.

A few random thoughts ...

I'm fairly certain the NFL can't wait for the focus to be back on the playing field. Another offseason of off-the-field legal woes for its players, and flat out bizarre behavior in some instances must make the stomaches of the league office's inhabitants turn. ... I think we're going to see a more wide-open race for the Super Bowl than in any season in recent memory, and here is why. There are as many as 11 AFC teams with legitimate playoff chances, and probably 8-9 in the NFC. But the top level of teams in the AFC - the Patriots, Colts, Jaguars and Chargers - is extremely impressive. Just below them are the Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Titans. And there are some potential surprise teams lurking in the Bills, Jets and Texans. I expect the AFC North and AFC South to be hotly contested. ... In the NFC, it's possible the four best teams all might reside in the East. I really think any team in the East would win the North, South or West this season. I fully expect three teams from the East to make the playoffs despite their having to play a brutal intradivisional schedule.

Want more clues about the 2008 season? Check back this week and next.