My upset special this week is selected with both my heart and my head: The Packers will take down the Broncos in Denver for the first time ever.
Denver will not have an answer for Green Bay's defense, which will force plenty of turnovers. Working with a short field, I expect the Packers offense to mix in more running plays against the porous middle of the Broncos defense. The Broncos are quick on the outside and feature an excellent pair of cornerbacks, so Brett Favre will attack the heart of the Denver defense.
Season record in upset picks: 5-2
Coming later this week, a mid-season report and a closer look at the Super Bowl - Patriots vs. Colts.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Saturday, October 20, 2007
NFL Week 7 preview
Undefeated and winless. There are two of each remaining as the NFL heads into Week 7 of the 2007 season.
Interestingly enough, one of the two unbeaten teams (the 6-0 Patriots) pays a visit to one of the two winless teams (the 0-6 Dolphins).
The Patriots have the look of one of the league's all-time best teams. Their offense has shredded everyone in sight, and their defense has remained its opportunistic self. Many are predicting they will not lose a game this season, much less this week.
Nothing, meanwhile, has gone right for the Dolphins, who have lost QB Trent Green, possibly for good, because of a concussion, and just traded their best receiver, Chris Chambers. Even the normally reliable Dolphins defense has fallen from its usual perch in the top five of the NFL rankings.
Last season, Miami beat New England at home. That won't happen this time around.
The league's other unbeaten team, the 5-0 Colts, is coming off its bye week to face its toughest in-division competitor, the 4-1 Jaguars, on Monday night. The bye came at a good time for the Colts, who have been banged up.
The keys to the game of the week are:
Can the Indianapolis defense contain Jacksonville's running game and force QB David Garrard into making mistakes? Garrard has yet to throw a pick this season.
Can Jacksonville control the clock and keep Indy's high-octane offense off the field as much as possible?
The Jaguars blew out the Colts down the stretch last season, but this is going to be a close one. I'm giving the Colts the nod because they're rested and at home.
The NFL's other winless team, the 0-6 Rams, pays a visit to Seattle. The Rams, who have been wrecked by injuries, particularly on offense, likely will get QB Marc Bulger back this week, which will help. But without RB Stephen Jackson it's hard to see them winning in Seattle, where the usually dominant Seahawks suddenly have been exposed as vulnerable.
One other game of note is on Sunday night, when Denver plays host to Pittsburgh in a battle of teams coming off byes. The Broncos took an unusual pasting at home from San Diego two weeks ago, and they appear to be at a make or break point in their season because both the Chargers and Chiefs are playing much better right now. The Steelers are winning with their hallmarks - a punishing defense and strong ground game. The difference for them has been the play of QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has cut down his mistakes from a season ago and is making big plays when needed.
There are plenty of clunkers this week, too.
My upset special is Tampa Bay, which I believe is for real, beating Detroit. I think the Lions are a mirage, and against a defense as stout as the Bucs' their careless ways are going to cost them. On the flip side, Bucs QB Jeff Garcia is not making the types of mistakes that the Lions have feasted on in their victories this season.
Upset special season record: 5-1
Interestingly enough, one of the two unbeaten teams (the 6-0 Patriots) pays a visit to one of the two winless teams (the 0-6 Dolphins).
The Patriots have the look of one of the league's all-time best teams. Their offense has shredded everyone in sight, and their defense has remained its opportunistic self. Many are predicting they will not lose a game this season, much less this week.
Nothing, meanwhile, has gone right for the Dolphins, who have lost QB Trent Green, possibly for good, because of a concussion, and just traded their best receiver, Chris Chambers. Even the normally reliable Dolphins defense has fallen from its usual perch in the top five of the NFL rankings.
Last season, Miami beat New England at home. That won't happen this time around.
The league's other unbeaten team, the 5-0 Colts, is coming off its bye week to face its toughest in-division competitor, the 4-1 Jaguars, on Monday night. The bye came at a good time for the Colts, who have been banged up.
The keys to the game of the week are:
Can the Indianapolis defense contain Jacksonville's running game and force QB David Garrard into making mistakes? Garrard has yet to throw a pick this season.
Can Jacksonville control the clock and keep Indy's high-octane offense off the field as much as possible?
The Jaguars blew out the Colts down the stretch last season, but this is going to be a close one. I'm giving the Colts the nod because they're rested and at home.
The NFL's other winless team, the 0-6 Rams, pays a visit to Seattle. The Rams, who have been wrecked by injuries, particularly on offense, likely will get QB Marc Bulger back this week, which will help. But without RB Stephen Jackson it's hard to see them winning in Seattle, where the usually dominant Seahawks suddenly have been exposed as vulnerable.
One other game of note is on Sunday night, when Denver plays host to Pittsburgh in a battle of teams coming off byes. The Broncos took an unusual pasting at home from San Diego two weeks ago, and they appear to be at a make or break point in their season because both the Chargers and Chiefs are playing much better right now. The Steelers are winning with their hallmarks - a punishing defense and strong ground game. The difference for them has been the play of QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has cut down his mistakes from a season ago and is making big plays when needed.
There are plenty of clunkers this week, too.
My upset special is Tampa Bay, which I believe is for real, beating Detroit. I think the Lions are a mirage, and against a defense as stout as the Bucs' their careless ways are going to cost them. On the flip side, Bucs QB Jeff Garcia is not making the types of mistakes that the Lions have feasted on in their victories this season.
Upset special season record: 5-1
Thursday, October 18, 2007
A bye week
What happened last week?
Well, I took a bye week! To make up for it, I will try to be more diligent this week.
One topic that has come up more and more this NFL season is the number of quarterback changes due to injury and poor play. What follows is a quick look, by division, at each team's quarterback picture six weeks into the season. (* indicates team has made a change)
NFC EAST
Dallas - Tony Romo has been excellent, with the exception of one game vs. Buffalo
NY Giants - Eli Manning is improving, particularly in his consistency
Philadelphia - Donovan McNabb appears slow, as if he's not fully recovered from knee surgery. But he is still an elite quarterback
Washington - Jason Campbell is improving and seems like he will give the Redskins very good quarterbacking for years to come
NFC NORTH
* Chicago - A mistake-prone Brian Griese has replaced a mistake-prone Rex Grossman
Detroit - Jon Kitna is taking a lot of hits, but he's also passing for a lot of yards for the surprising Lions
Green Bay - Brett Favre. Enough said.
* Minnesota - Tavaris Jackson-Kelly Holcombe-Tavaris Jackson. Not sure that it matters, and whoever stands under center has no one to pass to anyway.
NFC SOUTH
* Atlanta - Bryon Leftwich, who was cut by Jacksonville before the season, is replacing Joey Harrington, who was released by Miami after last season. Harrington replaced Michael Vick, who isn't even released to leave home
* Carolina - Vinny Testaverde has not cashed his most recent social security check because he replaced the injured David Carr, who replaced the injured Jake Delhomme
New Orleans - After a 0-4 start that included 1 TD pass and six picks, Saints fans probably were wishing Drew Brees had been replaced. Brees did show signs of life on Monday night as the Saints finally won.
Tampa Bay - Jeff Garcia has elevated the Bucs to playoff contender
NFC WEST
* Arizona - Tim Rattay has replaced the injured Kurt Warner, who replaced the injured Matt Leinart
* San Francisco - Trent Dilfer replaced the injured Alex Smith
Seattle - Matt Hasselbeck has been healthy, his receivers haven't been.
* St. Louis - Gus Frerotte has Rams fans wanting to bang their heads against an end zone wall after replacing the injured Marc Bulger
AFC EAST
* Buffalo - Trent Edwards replaced the injured JP Losman, and it appears the rookie is going to keep the job now even though Losman could play
* Miami - Cleo Lemon has replaced the concussed Trent Green for the winless Fins
New England - Tom Brady. Enough said.
NY Jets - Injury-prone Chad Pennington is the starter for now, but calls for Kellen Clemons are increasing
AFC NORTH
* Baltimore - Kyle Boller has replaced the injured Steve McNair. The two likely will alternate the rest of the season
Cincinnati - Carson Palmer is healthy again.
* Cleveland - Derek Anderson replaced Charlie Frye, who was so bad in Week 1 that he was traded. My question is what were Browns coaches watching during training camp?
Pittsburgh - Big Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, and the Steelers are rolling
AFC SOUTH
Houston - Think Atlanta wishes it hadn't traded Matt Schaub
Indianapolis - I think this Peyton Manning guy has a future in the league
Jacksonville - David Garrard IS an upgrade over Byron Leftwich. The Jags enjoy a big advantage in the turnover department
* Tennessee - Vince Young, who has a leg injury, might be replaced by Kerry Collins this week
AFC WEST
Denver - David Cutler has looked very uncomfortable in what could be a very long season in the Mile High City. At least the Rockies are in the Series
Kansas City - Damon Huard has held off Brodie Croyle. You're an NFL fanatic if you know what that means
* Oakland - Daunte Culpepper has replaced the injured Josh McCown, both of whom are keeping the seat warm for JaMarcus Russell
San Diego - Philip Rivers has looked a lot better once the Bolts started calling LaDainian Tomlinson's number more.
So 13 teams have different starting quarterbacks than they had at the start of the season, and there is the potential for a few more changes this week.
Well, I took a bye week! To make up for it, I will try to be more diligent this week.
One topic that has come up more and more this NFL season is the number of quarterback changes due to injury and poor play. What follows is a quick look, by division, at each team's quarterback picture six weeks into the season. (* indicates team has made a change)
NFC EAST
Dallas - Tony Romo has been excellent, with the exception of one game vs. Buffalo
NY Giants - Eli Manning is improving, particularly in his consistency
Philadelphia - Donovan McNabb appears slow, as if he's not fully recovered from knee surgery. But he is still an elite quarterback
Washington - Jason Campbell is improving and seems like he will give the Redskins very good quarterbacking for years to come
NFC NORTH
* Chicago - A mistake-prone Brian Griese has replaced a mistake-prone Rex Grossman
Detroit - Jon Kitna is taking a lot of hits, but he's also passing for a lot of yards for the surprising Lions
Green Bay - Brett Favre. Enough said.
* Minnesota - Tavaris Jackson-Kelly Holcombe-Tavaris Jackson. Not sure that it matters, and whoever stands under center has no one to pass to anyway.
NFC SOUTH
* Atlanta - Bryon Leftwich, who was cut by Jacksonville before the season, is replacing Joey Harrington, who was released by Miami after last season. Harrington replaced Michael Vick, who isn't even released to leave home
* Carolina - Vinny Testaverde has not cashed his most recent social security check because he replaced the injured David Carr, who replaced the injured Jake Delhomme
New Orleans - After a 0-4 start that included 1 TD pass and six picks, Saints fans probably were wishing Drew Brees had been replaced. Brees did show signs of life on Monday night as the Saints finally won.
Tampa Bay - Jeff Garcia has elevated the Bucs to playoff contender
NFC WEST
* Arizona - Tim Rattay has replaced the injured Kurt Warner, who replaced the injured Matt Leinart
* San Francisco - Trent Dilfer replaced the injured Alex Smith
Seattle - Matt Hasselbeck has been healthy, his receivers haven't been.
* St. Louis - Gus Frerotte has Rams fans wanting to bang their heads against an end zone wall after replacing the injured Marc Bulger
AFC EAST
* Buffalo - Trent Edwards replaced the injured JP Losman, and it appears the rookie is going to keep the job now even though Losman could play
* Miami - Cleo Lemon has replaced the concussed Trent Green for the winless Fins
New England - Tom Brady. Enough said.
NY Jets - Injury-prone Chad Pennington is the starter for now, but calls for Kellen Clemons are increasing
AFC NORTH
* Baltimore - Kyle Boller has replaced the injured Steve McNair. The two likely will alternate the rest of the season
Cincinnati - Carson Palmer is healthy again.
* Cleveland - Derek Anderson replaced Charlie Frye, who was so bad in Week 1 that he was traded. My question is what were Browns coaches watching during training camp?
Pittsburgh - Big Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, and the Steelers are rolling
AFC SOUTH
Houston - Think Atlanta wishes it hadn't traded Matt Schaub
Indianapolis - I think this Peyton Manning guy has a future in the league
Jacksonville - David Garrard IS an upgrade over Byron Leftwich. The Jags enjoy a big advantage in the turnover department
* Tennessee - Vince Young, who has a leg injury, might be replaced by Kerry Collins this week
AFC WEST
Denver - David Cutler has looked very uncomfortable in what could be a very long season in the Mile High City. At least the Rockies are in the Series
Kansas City - Damon Huard has held off Brodie Croyle. You're an NFL fanatic if you know what that means
* Oakland - Daunte Culpepper has replaced the injured Josh McCown, both of whom are keeping the seat warm for JaMarcus Russell
San Diego - Philip Rivers has looked a lot better once the Bolts started calling LaDainian Tomlinson's number more.
So 13 teams have different starting quarterbacks than they had at the start of the season, and there is the potential for a few more changes this week.
Saturday, October 06, 2007
Early look at the NHL's Western Conference
Generally considered the more competitive of the NHL's two conferences, the West has several solid Stanley Cup contenders and should feature a heated battle for its final 3-4 playoff spots.
An overview of the West:
Best Division: The Pacific, home to Stanley Cup champion Anaheim, San Jose, Dallas - all three playoff teams, and the up-and-coming Kings.
Worst Division: The Central. After Detroit, it's tough to envision another team aside from Nashville or St. Louis possibly sneaking into the playoffs.
Most Balanced Division: The Northwest. Aside from Edmonton, any of the other four teams could win it, and it would not shock me if Calgary, Colorado, Minnesota and Vancouver all made the playoffs.
Cup Contenders: Anaheim, San Jose, Detroit, Minnesota and possibly Calgary.
The skinny: If D Scott Niedermayer and/or F Teemu Selanne return at some point, the Ducks' chances improve. Anaheim must not fall too far back as it deals with early season injuries. ... If the Sharks' young players continue trend upward, particularly on defense, they will be a force to be reckoned with. ... The Red Wings are putting a lot of faith in goalie Dominik Hasek, but they play in a bad division and will pile up points and get a high postseason seed. ... The Wild have the best goaltender you've never heard of - Nicklas Backstrom - solid systems and great team speed. As they develop complementary scoring and toughness to their top line, they will be very difficult to play against. ... Either the Mike Keenan experiement in Calgary will be a rousing success or cause the Flames to implode. I question their offseason personnel moves (smell like "Keenan guys"), but they have great on-ice leaders and one of the top goalies in Mikka Kiprusoff.
Have Holes: Colorado, Vancouver, Dallas, Nashville
The skinny: The Avalanche need improved goaltending and defense, though signing D Scott Hannan and getting D Jordan Leopold back from injury helps. Offense will not be a problem. ... The Canucks have the opposite problem - great goaltending and defense, but not nearly enough offense. ... Ditto the Stars, whose best offensive players are getting long in the tooth. Still, Dallas is hard to play again. ... The Predators need a lot of young players to step to offset massive losses in the offseason, but the cupboard is far from bare - particularly on defense. A playoff berth is not out of the question.
Not Yet: Los Angeles, St. Louis, Chicago, Columbus, Phoenix, Edmonton.
The Skinny: Of these five, Los Angeles and St. Louis are best-positioned to make the leap into the playoffs. ... The Kings added a lot of complementary players to their young offensive stars. If they get consistent goaltending, they'll be better than expected. ... The Blues' signing of Paul Kariya will help their offense. St. Louis' play picked up dramatically under Coach Andy Murray. I question if they have the horses to keep up in the West. ... Chicago has good young talent and an excellent goaltender in Nikolai Khabibulin, but the Hawks need more time and more consistent scoring. ... Columbus has some questions in net and lacks scoring depth, but F Rick Nash should grow into a dominant player under Coach Ken Hitchcock. ... The Coyotes will be the West's worst team by virtue of weak goaltending, suspect offense and playing in the toughest division. ... The Oilers are in rebuild mode, and it's tough to see where they will get their offense from. If goalie Dwayne Roloson goes down, it could get ugly again.
An overview of the West:
Best Division: The Pacific, home to Stanley Cup champion Anaheim, San Jose, Dallas - all three playoff teams, and the up-and-coming Kings.
Worst Division: The Central. After Detroit, it's tough to envision another team aside from Nashville or St. Louis possibly sneaking into the playoffs.
Most Balanced Division: The Northwest. Aside from Edmonton, any of the other four teams could win it, and it would not shock me if Calgary, Colorado, Minnesota and Vancouver all made the playoffs.
Cup Contenders: Anaheim, San Jose, Detroit, Minnesota and possibly Calgary.
The skinny: If D Scott Niedermayer and/or F Teemu Selanne return at some point, the Ducks' chances improve. Anaheim must not fall too far back as it deals with early season injuries. ... If the Sharks' young players continue trend upward, particularly on defense, they will be a force to be reckoned with. ... The Red Wings are putting a lot of faith in goalie Dominik Hasek, but they play in a bad division and will pile up points and get a high postseason seed. ... The Wild have the best goaltender you've never heard of - Nicklas Backstrom - solid systems and great team speed. As they develop complementary scoring and toughness to their top line, they will be very difficult to play against. ... Either the Mike Keenan experiement in Calgary will be a rousing success or cause the Flames to implode. I question their offseason personnel moves (smell like "Keenan guys"), but they have great on-ice leaders and one of the top goalies in Mikka Kiprusoff.
Have Holes: Colorado, Vancouver, Dallas, Nashville
The skinny: The Avalanche need improved goaltending and defense, though signing D Scott Hannan and getting D Jordan Leopold back from injury helps. Offense will not be a problem. ... The Canucks have the opposite problem - great goaltending and defense, but not nearly enough offense. ... Ditto the Stars, whose best offensive players are getting long in the tooth. Still, Dallas is hard to play again. ... The Predators need a lot of young players to step to offset massive losses in the offseason, but the cupboard is far from bare - particularly on defense. A playoff berth is not out of the question.
Not Yet: Los Angeles, St. Louis, Chicago, Columbus, Phoenix, Edmonton.
The Skinny: Of these five, Los Angeles and St. Louis are best-positioned to make the leap into the playoffs. ... The Kings added a lot of complementary players to their young offensive stars. If they get consistent goaltending, they'll be better than expected. ... The Blues' signing of Paul Kariya will help their offense. St. Louis' play picked up dramatically under Coach Andy Murray. I question if they have the horses to keep up in the West. ... Chicago has good young talent and an excellent goaltender in Nikolai Khabibulin, but the Hawks need more time and more consistent scoring. ... Columbus has some questions in net and lacks scoring depth, but F Rick Nash should grow into a dominant player under Coach Ken Hitchcock. ... The Coyotes will be the West's worst team by virtue of weak goaltending, suspect offense and playing in the toughest division. ... The Oilers are in rebuild mode, and it's tough to see where they will get their offense from. If goalie Dwayne Roloson goes down, it could get ugly again.
Friday, October 05, 2007
NFL Week 5
I like to think of the NFL season in terms of quarters, and this weekend we enter the second quarter of the season. So what does that mean? Adjustments.
There will be some teams who have gotten off to unexpected slow starts that begin to pull it together, while others continue their fade. And some of the fast-starters might be in for rude awakenings.
I believe this is a week we'll start to see that, and I will address that in selected games.
Remember, too, that the impact of injuries can't be overstated.
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Detroit (3-1) at Washington (2-1): It's tough for me to believe the Lions will win 12 games, which they're on pace to, or even the 10 that QB Jon Kitna predicted. Here's why - their defense has been terrible, which is masked by the amount of turnovers they're forcing. Their offense is explosive, but for a club that relies on the pass as much the Lions do, they must protect Kitna better - he's on pace to be sacked more than 80 times. The Redskins are rested after an early bye week, and I believe they will return to a ball-control-style of offense. And Washington's defense is showing some improvement. Factor in that the Redskins have the horses in the secondary to keep up with Detroit's passing game, and I see the Lions' bubble beginning to burst.
Tampa Bay (3-1) at Indianapolis (4-0): The Bucs certainly qualify as a surprise team. Their defense has been revitalized, and QB Jeff Garcia is playing nearly mistake-free football. However, losing RB Cadillac Williams for the season to injury is going to hurt because I believe the Colts can be run on. If this game turns into a shootout, Indy will expose Tampa's defense. And don't forget, Colts coach Tony Dungy knows Tampa's defense better than most of its players do. I would be surprised if this isn't close because Tampa appears better than most (including myself thought).
Seattle (3-1) at Pittsburgh (3-1): This will be a huge test for both of the Super Bowl 40 participants. Can the Seahawks win another big game on the road and stamp themselves as a Super Bowl contender? How do the Steelers respond after a disappointing road loss at Arizona? Expect a low-scoring, ground-based game because both teams have ferocious pass rushes.
Chicago (1-3) at Green Bay (4-0): Are the Packers for real despite having the league's worst ground game? Can the Bears overcome an array of injuries and an offense that appears completely out of sync? Answer to question No. 1 - yes, Green Bay's defense and special teams are excellent, and so far Brett Favre has been outstanding enough to compensate for a lack of a ground game. Chicago has looked horrible two weeks in a row, but this is a rivalry game, and the Bears' season is riding on it. If Chicago loses, it's four games out of first place and it has two division losses after only one all last season (to Green Bay). The Bears must blitz Favre silly and control the ball behind RB Cedric Benson or they're staring at 1-4.
GAMES OF THE WEAK (and some upsets):
Carolina (2-2) at New Orleans (0-3): Before the season I would have pegged this as one of the NFC's top games, but not now. The Saints have not been able to do much right offensively or defensively, but the most telling stat is they do not have a sack yet this season. But the Panthers are without QB Jake Delhomme, and backup David Carr looked awful last week against the Bucs. Somehow the Saints, who are coming off a bye, are favored, but they haven't proved they can stop anyone, so I predict Carolina will run the ball at will.
Arizona (2-2) at St. Louis (0-4): Both teams are banged up, but the difference is the Cardinals have an aggressive defense and RB Edgerrin James. Tough to see the Rams winning without RB Steven Jackson and QB Marc Bulger. Also tough to see Coach Scott Linehan lasting more than a few weeks as things continue to implode under the arch.
ANOTHER UPSET SPECIAL:
San Diego (1-3) at Denver (2-2): Two more teams I was high on at the beginning of the season, and I think the Chargers will pull it together if they start running LaDainian Tomlinson more. The Broncos offer the perfect team to do that against. I also think the Chargers' defense has far more ability than it's shown thus far. The Chargers get their season back on track.
Upset picks:
Carolina over New Orleans
San Diego over Denver
Season record on upset specials: 3-1
There will be some teams who have gotten off to unexpected slow starts that begin to pull it together, while others continue their fade. And some of the fast-starters might be in for rude awakenings.
I believe this is a week we'll start to see that, and I will address that in selected games.
Remember, too, that the impact of injuries can't be overstated.
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Detroit (3-1) at Washington (2-1): It's tough for me to believe the Lions will win 12 games, which they're on pace to, or even the 10 that QB Jon Kitna predicted. Here's why - their defense has been terrible, which is masked by the amount of turnovers they're forcing. Their offense is explosive, but for a club that relies on the pass as much the Lions do, they must protect Kitna better - he's on pace to be sacked more than 80 times. The Redskins are rested after an early bye week, and I believe they will return to a ball-control-style of offense. And Washington's defense is showing some improvement. Factor in that the Redskins have the horses in the secondary to keep up with Detroit's passing game, and I see the Lions' bubble beginning to burst.
Tampa Bay (3-1) at Indianapolis (4-0): The Bucs certainly qualify as a surprise team. Their defense has been revitalized, and QB Jeff Garcia is playing nearly mistake-free football. However, losing RB Cadillac Williams for the season to injury is going to hurt because I believe the Colts can be run on. If this game turns into a shootout, Indy will expose Tampa's defense. And don't forget, Colts coach Tony Dungy knows Tampa's defense better than most of its players do. I would be surprised if this isn't close because Tampa appears better than most (including myself thought).
Seattle (3-1) at Pittsburgh (3-1): This will be a huge test for both of the Super Bowl 40 participants. Can the Seahawks win another big game on the road and stamp themselves as a Super Bowl contender? How do the Steelers respond after a disappointing road loss at Arizona? Expect a low-scoring, ground-based game because both teams have ferocious pass rushes.
Chicago (1-3) at Green Bay (4-0): Are the Packers for real despite having the league's worst ground game? Can the Bears overcome an array of injuries and an offense that appears completely out of sync? Answer to question No. 1 - yes, Green Bay's defense and special teams are excellent, and so far Brett Favre has been outstanding enough to compensate for a lack of a ground game. Chicago has looked horrible two weeks in a row, but this is a rivalry game, and the Bears' season is riding on it. If Chicago loses, it's four games out of first place and it has two division losses after only one all last season (to Green Bay). The Bears must blitz Favre silly and control the ball behind RB Cedric Benson or they're staring at 1-4.
GAMES OF THE WEAK (and some upsets):
Carolina (2-2) at New Orleans (0-3): Before the season I would have pegged this as one of the NFC's top games, but not now. The Saints have not been able to do much right offensively or defensively, but the most telling stat is they do not have a sack yet this season. But the Panthers are without QB Jake Delhomme, and backup David Carr looked awful last week against the Bucs. Somehow the Saints, who are coming off a bye, are favored, but they haven't proved they can stop anyone, so I predict Carolina will run the ball at will.
Arizona (2-2) at St. Louis (0-4): Both teams are banged up, but the difference is the Cardinals have an aggressive defense and RB Edgerrin James. Tough to see the Rams winning without RB Steven Jackson and QB Marc Bulger. Also tough to see Coach Scott Linehan lasting more than a few weeks as things continue to implode under the arch.
ANOTHER UPSET SPECIAL:
San Diego (1-3) at Denver (2-2): Two more teams I was high on at the beginning of the season, and I think the Chargers will pull it together if they start running LaDainian Tomlinson more. The Broncos offer the perfect team to do that against. I also think the Chargers' defense has far more ability than it's shown thus far. The Chargers get their season back on track.
Upset picks:
Carolina over New Orleans
San Diego over Denver
Season record on upset specials: 3-1
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