Buffalo (7-9): The Bills picked up steam as the season progressed, and they not lost their final two games could have made the playoffs. QB JP Losman improved, and RB Willis McGahee was very good when healthy. They still need another WR to complement Lee Evans, but the real problem was their run defense, which was not good and allowed opponents to control the clock.
The verdict: Buffalo seems to be on the right track. With some upgrades in the middle of their defense, they could challenge for a wild-card spot.
Cincinnati (8-8): One of the most disappointing teams in the league this season (along with Carolina, Denver and Miami in my book), the Bengals defense could stop no one, leaving them little margin for error. QB Carson Palmer wasn't himself much of the season, but few expected him to be after major knee surgery. As bad as the run defense was, the pass defense was even worsee, allowing nearly 4,000 yards. On top of that, no team had close to as many major discipline problems and run-ins with the law as the Bengals.
The verdict: This team has prime-time talent but didn't play like it very often. It lost three in a row to close the season and miss the playoffs, and two of the games were winnable. Coach Marvin Lewis seems secure for now, but another season like this and he'll want to have his resume ready.
Cleveland (4-12): Tough to see much progress here. Charlie Frye isn't the answer at QB, and RB Ruben Droughens fell off. WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. were healthy, and proved they're the real deal, but the optimism ends there. The defense was terrible, which is puzzling given that Coach Romeo Crennel was an outstanding defensive coordinator in past jobs and the Browns dedicated many of their free-agent dollars to defense.
The verdict: Cleveland needs a lot of help, especially on the lines and at quarterback.
Denver (9-7): The Broncos' home loss in their finale knocked them from the playoffs and then the sudden death of CB Darrent Williams compounded their pain. Despite having a lot of talent, there are more questions than answers here. Moving rookie QB Jay Cutler into a starting job at midseason might pay off down the road, but in hindsight it didn't make much sense. Acquiring WR Javon Walker was a good move, and CB Champ Bailey was the league's best cover man. The defense fell off a bit, and the running game was a bit more inconsistent. Another puzzle: Denver usually dominates at home, but only was 4-4.
The verdict: The Broncos could bounce back, but a lot will hinge on how they respond to Williams' death and Cutler's on-field leadership. Mike Shanahan is a terrific coach, but I wonder if he's run his course in the Mile High City.
Houston (6-10): If you look closely, there was some progress under first-year coach Gary Kubiak. QB David Carr improved, and the defense has a lot of young talent. Aside from WR Andre Johnson and rookie TE Owen Daniels, there isn't a lot of firepower, especially if RB Domanick Davis can't return to normal after his injury problems.
The verdict: A team that could make a move if it can add some more offense and the young defense matures.
Jacksonville (8-8): A team that was really hurt within its division. The Jaguars' defense was one of the league's better ones, and rookie RB Maurice Jones-Drew was outstanding. The offense lacks imagination and skill at the WR positions, though it did seem to improve under QB David Garrard, whose ability to elude rushers gave the Jags an element QB Byron Leftwich didn't provide.
The verdict: Team at a crossroads. RB Fred Taylor and Leftwich might be history here, and Jacksonville clearly needs to score more points. It won't get any easier in the AFC South.
Miami (6-10): Don't believe the hype. This team wasn't close to being a Super Bowl contender. It again had an excellent defense, particularly DE Jason Taylor and MLB Zach Thomas. Daunte Culpepper wasn't the answer at QB, the WRs weren't a lot better and RB Ronnie Brown fell off a bit in his second year. If Culpepper regains his health, it would be surprising to me to see Miami keep both him and Joey Harrington.
The verdict: A lot depends on whom the Dolphins hire to replace Coach Nick Saban. Whoever comes in better win soon before the core of the defense retires.
Oakland (2-14): The defense showed some signs of life in the second half of the season, but the offense was horrible. Obtaining QB Aaron Brooks was a mistake. In fact, none of the high-profile players on offense (RB LaMont Jordan, WRs Randy Moss and Jerry Porter) should be kept. At least Jordan works hard. Surprisingly, Coach Art Shell was let go. Surprising in that Oakland brass realized the game had indeed passed him by.
The verdict: The entire offense must be gutted and rebuilt, and that will take time. The Raiders likely will stay in-house for a coach, meaning things likely won't improve anytime soon.
Pittsburgh (8-8): I wondered if QB Ben Roethlisberger and the Super Bowl XL victory were flukes, but was convinced I was wrong. Now I'm having second thoughts. A tough start and injuries doomed the men of Steel, who didn't handle the pressure of being champs well. The defense, surprisingly, was more of a problem than the offense.
The verdict: It's unlikely they'll find a better coach than Bill Cowher, but the cupboard is far from bare. It will boil down to which version of the Steelers appears, the aggressive and hungry group, or the passive champions.
Tennessee (8-8): QB Vince Young is the real deal, and he says and does the things people have expected from Michael Vick for years. Jeff Fisher did the best coaching job of anyone in the league (including the Jets' Eric Mangini and the Saints' Sean Payton). The Titans played outstanding during the second half of the season and will be a popular choice as a "surprise" team in 2007.
The verdict: A lot to like here, but teams will have the book on Young next season and the defense needs to tighten up. This is a team that should improve next season, but its record might not because of a tougher schedule and not being able to sneak up on teams like it did this year.
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