Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Does the draft matter anymore, Part II

The NHL is one of, if not the toughest, of leagues to follow on draft day unless you are a complete hockey fanatic. The reasons are two-fold. First, the league is drafting 18-year-olds to play in a league that demands physical and emotional maturity, so the timeline for projecting players' ceilings is tricky. And second, the NHL truly is an international league. Last season, nearly one-third of its players hailed from outside North America and Canadian players comprised barely half of its players.

Examing the most successful franchises during the past decade or so reveals some interesting trends. Clubs that I would classify as having sustained success during this time period are Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado and Dallas.

The Red Wings are gunning for their fourth Stanley Cup in the past decade, and they've been largely built through extremely astute drafting. Players such as Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Holmstrom and Pavel Datsyuk all were Wings picks, and many of them were mid-to-low round selections. Detroit won its Cups with three different goaltenders: Mike Vernon (acquired in trade), Chris Osgood (drafted) and Dominik Hasek (free agency). And the franchise has done a good job adding key components through trades (Mathieu Schneider, Chris Chelios, Todd Bertuzzi, Kyle Calder). The Wings also have a talent for resurrecting players' careers after other teams gave up on them (Andreas Lilja, Larry Murphy, Kris Draper, Kirk Maltby, Dan Cleary). Chief among Detroit's talents has been mining Europe for star talent at bargain prices. This combination has made them one of the league's model franchises in terms of personnel.

The Devils also have drafted extremely well (Scott Niedermayer, Martin Brodeur, Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Patrik Elias, Ken Daneyko to name a few), and their acquisition of Scott Stevens through an NHL loophole when St. Louis signed Brendan Shanahan in the early 90s set the tone for the franchise. Like the Red Wings, New Jersey was quick to identify and sign European players who could help them, though the Devils have largely been built on North Americans, particularly U.S. college propects in the past 4-5 years.

The Avalanche reaped the rewards of many high draft choices when the franchise was in Quebec (Joe Sakic, Mats Sundin, Owen Nolan, Eric Lindros). Through trades they turned the disgruntled Lindros into Peter Forsberg and a host of other players. Nolan brought defenseman Sandis Ozolinsh, who was a key to their 1996 Cup. Other draft choices of note include Adam Foote, Adam Deadmarsh, Chris Drury and Milan Hejduk. Deadmarsh helped them trade for defenseman Rob Blake, who along with Ray Bourque helped the Avs win a second Cup in 2001. So drafting combined with shrewd trading laid the foundation for the Avs' success.

The Stars' foundation also came through the draft, with players such as Mike Modano, Marty Turco, Jere Lehtinen and Derian Hatcher being draft picks. However, Dallas also made more liberal use of free agency than other year-in, year-out contenders, obtaining Brett Hull and Ed Belfour that way, to spark their 1999 Cup win. Aside from dealing for Sergei Zubov in the late 90s, the Stars typically use trades to fill out their depth and add key role players.

In all four examples, the draft was very important to these teams' sustained success, and teams such as Detroit and New Jersey, which have resisted the temptation to deal their prospects, have reaped the biggest reward - each winning three Cups since 1995.

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