Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Tale of two title games

Who would have thought Week 2 of the NFL season would provide us a preview of the NFC and AFC Championship games?

But that's the case, and there are four very different storylines going into Sunday's matchups.

In the AFC:


The New England Patriots were widely considered the favorites to win it all entering the season. They've done nothing to change that, going a perfect 16-0 during the regular season and winning the Divisional playoff game against a tough Jacksonville time. Still, there are whispers they can be run on and that the elements and a fierce pass rush can slow their high-flying offense.

Their opponent, the San Diego Chargers, struggled to a 1-3 start, including a Week 2 blowout loss at Foxboro, Mass. The natives were restless, and Coach Norv Turner was in the cross-hairs. After reaching 5-5, they righted the ship, largely on the legs of RB LaDanian Tomlinson and QB Philip Rivers, whom Turner has stated is the key for San Diego going deep in the playoffs. LT and Rivers are ailing going into the AFC Championship, but no one gave the Chargers much of a chance again the defending champion Colts either.

The pick: The Patriots are too tough. I'm not convinced the Chargers can score enough points to overcome them. But it should be a close game.

In the NFC

The New York Giants players were ready to mutiny under "oppressive" Coach Tom Coghlin, or so the stories went heading into the season. An 0-2 start, including a Week 2 loss to the Packers in East Rutherford, N.J., didn't help. However, that Packers game was close until midway through the third quarter, and both of these teams are radically different from September. The Giants have become a cohesive group under Coghlin, Eli Manning is slowly maturing into an upper-echelon quarterback, the multi-headed running game is effectively wearing defenses down and the pass rush is masking a below-average secondary.

Sure Brett Favre has had a Hall of Fame career for the Green Bay Packers, but why come back to a team that was 4-8 at one point last season? More Packers fans were fearful of him tarnishing his legend. Then a funny thing happened. The Packers won four in a row to close 2006. Then they got off to a 10-1 start this season. The real key was the emergence of RB Ryan Grant, obtained from the Giants at the end of preseason for a sixth-round pick, as a balance to what has developed into a dangerous passing attack under the revitalized Favre. Often overlooked: the Packers have a punishing defense of their own.

The pick: The Packers have better personnel at more positions than the Giants, especially at the most important one - quarterback. Homefield advantage in Green Bay cannot be understated. Favre would have to completely implode and Manning would have to play the game of his career for the Giants to win.

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