NFL 2008: AFC predictions

Happy Labor Day weekend. All you NFL widows, enjoy it while you can because the nation's largest TV sport returns Thursday night.

I want to follow my preseason division-by-division breakdowns with my 2008 predictions, which I will revisit at the end of the year and compare with other experts' prognostications.

Each week during the NFL season I will preview a selection of upcoming games, usually on Thursday or Friday, and then recap the weekend's action upon its completion.

Without further ado ... my AFC predictions. Teams are listed in the order of finish with a comment following each.

AFC East
Overview: There is no question in my mind the Patriots will be Super Bowl contenders again, and they've won with less talented teams. I am tempted to place the Bills ahead of the Jets, but I do think Brett Favre and rebuilt lines will help the Jets. The Dolphins could be a very tough opponent by the end of the season.

1. New England: The offense will be unstoppable again, and adding RB LaMont Jordan was a smart move. If the secondary's new parts come together, this team will win 14 or 15 games again.
2. New York Jets: Favre helps, but G Alan Faneca and NT Kris Jenkins help at least as much. They need RB Thomas Jones to have a big year to have a shot at the playoffs.
3. Buffalo: Very good young talent all over the roster. RB Marshawn Lynch is the real deal, but now that the league has the book on QB Trent Edwards I'm curious how he does this season.
4. Miami: The talent level is better, the quarterbacking is way better thanks the Jets' gift of Chad Pennington, and I have a hunch RB Ricky Williams is going to be comeback player of the year.

AFC North
Overview: The Browns are the fashionable pick, but I wouldn't be stunned if they finish in third place. In terms of winning, Ben Roethlisberger is the best QB in this division, and isn't that what counts? Given that this team draws the NFC East this season, it's tough to imagine more than one playoff team coming from here as the four teams beat each other silly all season.

1. Pittsburgh: I like their defense. I think their passing game has a lot of upside with a maturing Santonio Holmes and rookie Limas Sweed. And they're deeper at running back with rookie Rashard Mendenhall. One issue is depth, so if injuries hit hard they'll drop.
2. Cleveland: Last season the Browns upgraded their offensive line. This past offseason it was the defense's turn with the addition of DE Corey Williams and DT Shaun Rodgers. The passing game should be strong, but what if Jamal Lewis breaks down? The back seven on defense is going to have generate a lot more turnovers and not be so porous vs. the pass for the Browns to play beyond December.
3. Cincinnati: This is a tough team for me to peg. Their defense should be better - it certainly has more talent and coordinator Mike Zimmer should make the most of it. QB Carson Palmer has to take better care of the ball and his WR core has to get healthy. Don't be surprised to see Chris Perry replace Rudi Johnson at RB.
4. Baltimore: The defense, despite some age and injury concerns at corner, should be solid. But if RB Willis McGahee is injured, it won't matter. It's tough to see how they can win with any of their quarterbacks and a very suspect receiving group.

AFC South
Overview: Can anyone end the Colts' run of five consecutive division titles? I think so. Indy has a lot of injury concerns, and as the playoffs demonstrated, they're not deep enough withstand overly physical teams. If Jacksonville's receiving core steps up, look out, the Jags seemingly have everything else in place. Jeff Fisher could be coach of the year most seasons for the job he does with the Titans, who again seem to have some holes, especially on offense. The Texans are cursed to be in the conference's toughest division.

1. Jacksonville: The Jags had a chance to take the Patriots out in the playoffs, and with a bit more balance on offense, they could do it this season. Excellent running game and solid turnover margin are usually a winning formula.
2. Indianapolis: Manning, Freeney, Harrison, Sanders - not names one likes to see on the injury report, but all of them will be there to start the season. If the Colts get off to a blazing start it could go a long way to proving that preseason is meaningless. I don't see the Colts having the depth to hold up against a tough schedule.
3. Tennessee: This is a key season for this franchise - either Vince Young is the answer at quarterback or he isn't. The defense will be stout, and the Titans could have a very good one-two punch at running back in LenDale White and Chris Johnson.
4. Houston: The Texans are improving, and they might shock me and leap into third in the division and challenge for a playoff spot. However, they have some secondary issues and need some bounce-back years from RBs Ahman Green and Chris Brown to take the heat off of the passing game.

AFC West
Overview: The Chargers are primed for a Super Bowl run. The key for them is making it through the playoffs healthy. That might have been the difference between them knocking off New England in last season's conference championship game. The Raiders have a lot of young talent in their backfield on all over their defense, and they've been so bad for so long they're going to catch some teams sleeping. I expect the Broncos' slide to continue, and the Chiefs are too young to make much noise this year, but blowing it up was the right approach.

1. San Diego: If TE Antonio Gates is healthy, look out. The offense should score in bunches. The defense is loaded, too, though the situation with LB Shawn Merriman's knee is worrisome.
2. Oakland: My surprise team pick. Yes, the offensive line might be sub par and QB JaMarcus Russell is going to be up and down, but this team has a ton of talent, and if their defense can stop the run better, watch out.
3. Denver: The Broncos have problems on both lines, some holes in the middle of the defense, and who will run the ball? QB Jay Cutler should move into the echelon just below Manning and Brady this season.
4. Kansas City: A lot of good young talent and a healthy Larry Johnson will be cause for optimism. But the Chiefs have the NFL's worst quarterback situation and a bad offensive line, which is a shame because TE Tony Gonzalez is an elite player and WR Dwayne Bowe could develop into one.

Playoff teams: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, San Diego, Indianapolis and either Jets or Bills.