College and high school football have begun in force, and the NFL kicks off for real on Thursday, so that means it's time for my football blog to return for its fifth season in this forum.
Before I post my season previews and compare my predictions to some major publications', I'd like to address the major topic that is hanging over this season -- a potential lockout by owners in early 2011.
As wonderful as it is to have football back, can you imagine a fall without the NFL? One would have to go back to 1987 to find the last labor disruption in the league. The only good thing that came out of that was Saints coach Sean Payton, who was one of the replacement players hired to play that season.
The dynamics of the game have changed immeasurably since -- look no further than the amounts of money involved in contracts, television, stadiums and merchandise. The NFL is king of the sporting universe, and nothing else is even close.
Do you think for a moment that a group of players with short shelf lives are going to throw away a year with this amount of moolah at stake?
Do you think owners, many of whom now are leveraged more than ever in a down economy because of building new stadiums, are going to say no to all that revenue their new palaces generate?
Here are three areas I think need to be addressed that will benefit both sides.
1. Safety: Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs states, in effect, that this at near the top of the "need" list for most people (after food, water and sleep). The NFL is taking some good steps in examining equipment, treatment and rules to make the game safer.
But there is much more to it than this. Given the onslaught of retired players with serious medical woes vocalizing their displeasure (and I think they have a point), the league and union could/should come together on a more comprehensive post-playing health insurance plan. Typically, this would be a union responsibility, but given the money both parties make, I believe it should be a joint effort.
It also should not be free. Ex-players should pay a reasonable premium, just as the rest of us do, but their policies should take into account the physical punishment they endure. There is enough money out there now to get this off the ground. Perhaps take a small percentage of players' salaries to fund it for their futures.
I sense that many players adopt the mindset of getting whatever they can when they can because no one really has their backs. Perhaps this would help address that, or maybe the next item would.
2. Guarantee contracts and pay bonuses based upon individual and team performance. Signing bonuses are guaranteed money (which is why they've exploded in recent years), but the standard player contract isn't. Contracts are guaranteed in the NBA, NHL and Major League Baseball, but not in the most violent sport - football. This always has struck me as odd.
Owners would argue that guarantees will remove incentives to play hard. This is where performance bonuses come in. Say the team reaches certain plateaus of success, everyone on the team gets a bonus based upon their playing time. Add some individual statistical bonuses, but make them a fraction of the team and playing time bonuses.
In theory, owners should love this because they're paying for performance. Players should love it because if they sign a contract, they're guaranteed a certain amount of money.
An added benefit is this would reign in many teams who spend wildly, make mistakes, then spend wildly again. Most teams probably would be more cautious about the amount and the duration of contracts they offer. Maybe 2- to 3-year deals would become the norm. That could work both ways for players. Not happy with your contract, you're only a year from being able to sign a new one for potentially a lot more money. Injured in the final year of your contract, at least you'd have health insurance and be better equipped to work your way back. Have a huge year while being underpaid? Payday is right around the corner.
I believe it would reward players who work hard and teams that do their homework. Those who don't would at least not be rewarded.
3. Rookie salary scale. Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford could end up being good quarterbacks. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are great quarterbacks. So why are Bradford and Stafford in the same salary neighborhood?
This comes back to paying the players who have proven themselves. I'm not for slotting salaries by pick or round drafted because the draft is a hugely inexact science. But having ranges for rookies, perhaps a rookie signing pool based upon the number of picks a team has.
Based upon all that I've read and heard, I'd be willing to bet some semblence of this appears in the next labor deal.
3b. Expanded regular season. If it happens, two things need to happen - player compensation has to increase and rosters need to expand, or at least practice squads do. The owners would get more TV revenue with two more "meaningful" games, so the players should as well.
These are giant issues for the King Kong of all sports leagues.
So will a lockout happen? I think it's possible. Will it last into the 2011 season. I doubt it -- there is too much at stake.
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