I know, it's been a while. Let's just call it an extended hangover from the Packers' Super Bowl victory in 2011.
I think it's high time to resume NFL blogging, so let's start with how I see the AFC division races breaking down this season. Every year there are surprise teams, and I'm sure this year won't be any exception. Educated guesses as to whom they will be are the best I can offer.
AFC East
Projected finish: New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins
Going up: Bills. Buffalo should have a stout defense, and if RB Fred Jackson is healthy enough weapons on offense.
Going down: Jets. I don't see this offense working. What are they? Ground and pound team? Vertical passing team?
Summary: It seems as if the Patriots have won this division every season for two decades. The Dolphins will have a decent defense but RB Reggie Bush would have to be the second coming of Barry Sanders for their offense to have a chance.
AFC North
Projected finish: Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns
Going up: Ravens. Yes, their LB corps are depleted a bit with Terrell Suggs' injury and Jarrett Johnson's FA departure, but they still have a lot of talent on that side of the ball and a versatile offense with several playmakers. A Super Bowl is not out of the question.
Going down: Steelers. Age on defense and injuries at several key positions (NT, RB to name two) is not a good combination. Pittsburgh needs a RB to emerge and good health along its lines. I realize it's a risk to underestimate the Men of Steel.
Summary: Ohio's teams won't crack the top two unless the front-runners have major injuries. Can the Bengals sustain their momentum? Cincy has a lot of solid pieces, particularly on defense and with the QB-WR combo of Andy Dalton-AJ Green. Browns fans should prepare for another housecleaning. Rookie RB Trent Richardson would need to rush for 1600 yards for them to have a chance at a wild-card berth. This is the conference's strongest division.
AFC South
Projected finish: Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts
Going up: Titans. RB Chris Johnson bounces back and QB Jake Locker develops, giving Tennessee a wild-card berth.
Going down: Texans. But they still probably win the division despite some FA losses on the O-line.
Summary: I think Houston ultimately will win this division, but every team behind them should be better, and in the cases of Jacksonville and Indianapolis, a lot better. In fact, if QB Blaine Gabbert develops and RB Maurice-Jones Drew emerges from his holdout funk, the Jags could make some noise. They have much better weapons at WR than a year ago. The Colts had a lot of systemic changes, particularly on defense, and I don't know if they have the right parts to make it work.
AFC North
Projected finish: Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
Going up: Chiefs. A run of injuries to star players cost them the division last season, and the combination of better health and better depth means they take it this year.
Going down: Chargers. Where will they be better than last season? Pass rush, maybe. Their lines are in tough shape. RB Ryan Mathews is hurt again. And their WRs have a lot to prove.
Summary: The Chiefs get the nod based on stability and my projection that they can't possibly be as devastated by injuries as they were in 2011. Peyton Manning will help the Broncos, but I think they overachieved last year. The Raiders' season comes down to RB Darrin McFadden's health and QB Carson Palmer bouncing back to the level he has demonstrated he can play at in the past.
1 comment:
Your AFC blog post is very well thought out. From my perspective, the only competition in the AFC East is for last place, which is between the Jets and Dolphins. Considering where the Jets were in 2010 and now, I'd say that this is the most disappointing team in the NFL. Thoughts?
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