Favre: Who's the Boss?

The summer drama that has been Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers took another turn Sunday when it was reported the legendary quarterback is returning to the team Monday and likely will participate in practice as soon as Tuesday.

What forced the Packers to have a change in heart to welcome Favre back?

The possibility of having their most popular player in another uniform might have finally been too much for the Packers braintrust to stomach. Perhaps Favre told them he would play more than one season (more on this in a bit), thus ending the annual offseason game of cat and mouse.

What role did their inability to trade him play in this?

There is a saying that sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make. Trading Favre to another NFC team such as the Bucs would have been bad, to an intra-division rival such as the Bears or Vikings disastrous, and in the Badger State, unforgivable. There is no question the Packers wanted to trade Favre at some point, however their reported demands also made it clear they preferred he just stayed retired.

What role did Favre play in this, meaning did he state unwaveringly that he wants to play football?

My guess, and it's only that, is he agreed to play more than one season if the Packers took him back. He clearly wants to play football, and he clearly wants to win another Super Bowl. He's never wavered from that latter statement. Favre forced the Packers' hand by saying he'd only accept a trade to Minnesota, which would be completely unacceptable to GM Ted Thompson, demoralizing to the Packers players and the end of the world for a vast majority of Packers fans.

What does this mean for Aaron Rodgers?

Probably the end of his Packers career. There is no question in my mind that Favre will beat him out for the starting job. No matter how it's couched, Rodgers can't be happy, and he will walk when his rookie contract expires after the 2009 season. Barring a Favre injury, I doubt Rodgers will play much more this season than in years past.

And what about the Packers chances this season?

On some level, the Packers management team must believe they're very close to winning a Super Bowl, and I don't think anyone believes Rodgers will give them a better chance this season than Favre. Assuming Favre is fit and healthy, he still has more than a month to prepare for the regular season. The Packers' signing of Ryan Grant over the weekend helps, and reports on the team's scrimmage Sunday night said the secondary looks vastly improved. So the Packers will be one of the NFC's better teams, but I don't know if they can overcome Dallas or New York, both of which I anticipate being better this season.

What about the future?

If Favre plays this season, the Packers probably will look to prepare second-round draft choice Brian Brohm and/or seventh-round pick Matt Flynn to take over for Favre. If Favre has committed to two more seasons, and I suspect he has, then it would not surprise me to see the Packers trade Rodgers at the draft next spring.

But, like everyone else, I'm getting ahead of myself. Four and a half more weeks until the season starts.

Taking a Look at the NFC North

Teams listed in alphabetical order.

CHICAGO BEARS
2007 record: 7-9
The Forecast: Partly sunny with some clouds
Can a team win with a potentially great defense and a likely marginal offense? Aside from rookie RB Matt Forte and second-year TE Greg Olson, the Bears' offense lacks playmakers. Re-signing LB Lance Briggs and keeping S Mike Brown, CB Nathan Vasher and DTs Tommie Harris and Dusty Dvoraceck healthy could usher in another dominant Bears defense.
That Won't Be Wind Howling If: The Bears don't get something from their passing game and the middle part of the defense can't stay healthy.

DETROIT LIONS
2007 record: 7-9
The Forecast: Cloudy, with a chance of sun
The defense needed a lot of help, and that is what the Lions addressed in free agency and somewhat in the draft. None of the position groups stand out, though DT Cory Redding has Pro Bowl ability and LB Ernie Sims is not far behind. Subtracting DT Shaun Rodgers and adding CB Leigh Bodden were good moves. The passing game could be special with WRs Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams, but who will run the ball?
Look for More Layoffs in Detroit If: The Lions don't show significant improvement and at least contend for a playoff spot.

GREEN BAY PACKERS
2007 record: 13-3
The Forecast: Sun mixed with possible storms
After a surprisingly promising 2007 season ended on a sour note in the NFC Championship game, the news has gone from bad to worse in the land of wholesome dairy products. First QB Brett Favre retired, then shortly before camp started he decided not to retire. Compounding matters has been the club's stance that they've moved on to Aaron Rodgers as their QB. But enough of that. The Packers have rebuilt a lot of depth through the past three drafts, and it's become apparent they might have the deepest group of WRs in the league. They're strong on the lines and at linebacker as well. If RB Ryan Grant's holdout ends soon, their ground game is in good hands. If not, Rodgers will have another tough hand to play. The defense needs better safety play and a return to health at the DT spot, otherwise it's very solid.
Cheeseheads Will Melt If: Favre plays for another team, Grant has a lengthy holdout, Rodgers can't justify the team's faith in him or injuries, which the Packers largely avoided in '07, hit this time around.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
2007 record: 8-8
The Forecast: Partly sunny
A popular choice as a playoff contender, the Vikings turned over significant parts of their roster in hopes of upgrading their pass defense and passing game. WR Bernard Berrian has the speed the Vikings have lacked since saying good-bye to Randy Moss, but he's nowhere near the caliber of player Moss is. S Madieu Williams will help the secondary, but unless another newcomer, DE Jared Allen, massively upgrades the pass rush, teams might still be able to exploit Minnesota's secondary. The running game offers no such worries with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor giving the Vikings the top 1-2 combination in the league. The offensive improvement will hinge on QB Tavaris Jackson's improvement, and he has the tools to do so.
The 10,000 Lakes Might Freeze Early If: Jackson regresses, Peterson gets hurt or the high-priced talent that was brought in doesn't live up their contracts.

Next: The NFC South

Taking a Look at the NFC East

Teams listed in alphabetical order.

DALLAS COWBOYS
2007 record: 13-3
The Forecast: Sunny
The Cowboys easily are one of the NFL's most talented teams, as evidenced by their 13 Pro Bowl selections this past season. And they've added more talent in LB Zach Thomas (if he's healthy), CB Adam Jones (if he's not suspended) and rookie RB Felix Jones and rookie CB Mike Jenkins. If there is one position group the Cowboys lack depth, it is in their receiving core because if either WR Terrell Owens or TE Jason Witten goes down, QB Tony Romo's options shrink exponentially.
Brace for a Texas-sized Tantrum If: The Cowboys can't snap an 11-season winless string in the postseason.

NEW YORK GIANTS
2007 record: 10-6
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
Yes, the Giants lost DE Michael Strahan to retirement, traded TE Jeremy Shockey and lost LB Kawika Mitchell and S Gibril Wilson in free agency. However, this is a team that ran the table in the playoffs - all on the road - and established itself as a tough, physical team. QB Eli Manning has proven he's for real, and the Giants have a ground game where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. One situation to watch is the health and attitude of WR Plaxico Burress, who was a difference maker in 2007.
There Will Be No Repeat If: The Giants don't win more than three games at home and pull out another strong finish (three of their final five games are within the division, and the other two are against what should be improved Minnesota and Carolina teams).

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
2007 record: 8-8
The Forecast: Mix of sun and clouds
The Eagles are a team that basically beat themselves last season with turnovers and poor special teams play. QB Donovan McNabb played reasonably well coming off a torn ACL, but the Eagles struggled to score TDs in the red zone despite the presence of Brian Westbrook, who pound for pound might be the toughest RB in the league. The defense has several young players who improved last season, so that shouldn't be an issue.
The Endangered Species List Will Grow If: The McNabb of old doesn't appear weekly, no receivers step up and Westbrook gets injured.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2007 record: 9-7
The Forecast: Clouds with more sun as the season goes on
The Redskins rallied to reach the playoffs after the murder of S Sean Taylor and enduring numerous injuries. It was a testament to the coaching of former Coach Joe Gibbs as much as anything. New Coach Jim Zorn will have his work cut out for him, particularly if QB Jason Campbell is not recovered from a knee injury. The skill positions on offense otherwise are loaded, and the defense was bolstered by the recent addition of DE Jason Taylor, who along with Andre Carter, gives Washington an imposing outside pass rush.
Brace for Capital Punishment If: Campbell falters and the secondary and grizzled offensive line sustain any injuries.

Next up: NFC North

Taking a Look at the AFC West

Time to take a look around the AFC West Division
(teams are listed in alphabetical order)

DENVER BRONCOS
2007 record: 7-9
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Mostly cloudy
After the first losing record in Mike Shanahan's lengthy tenure in the Mile High City, the Broncos turned over a significant portion of their roster, but it's not the free agents who will make the big difference. The Broncos need recent high draft picks such as QB Jake Cutler, TE Tony Sheffler, T Ryan Clady, WR Eddie Royal and DLs Marcus Thomas, Tim Crowder and Jarvis Moss to play up to their draft positions. Denver has a lot of holes on its lines, and that was particularly reflected in its inability to stop the run last season.
Expect an Avalanche If: Cutler doesn't become a difference maker, the ground game sputters - now minus Travis Henry, who was released this summer - and the defense's young players don't take a step forward.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2007 record: 4-12
Camp opens: July 24
The Forecast: Cloudy, rain may be heavy at times
What do you have when you combine the second-worst offense with the fourth-worst rushing defense? Factor in that most of the team's veterans were shown the door in the offseason and the quarterback was unimpressive in his audition. Add to that one of the team's two stars - DE Jared Allen - was traded and the other - RB Larry Johnson - missed half of the season because of injuries. Despite a bonanza at the draft table, do you get the impression that I'm not real excited about the Chiefs' prospects this season?
There Will Be No KC Masterpiece If: Johnson gets hurt again and the passing game can't at least keep defenses honest.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
2007 record: 4-12
Camp opens: July 24
The Forecast: Cloudy, chance of sun at times
For every good move this team makes - drafting QB JaMarcus Russell and S Michael Huff in successive years and trading for CB DeAngelo Hall - there a series of mystifying moves, such as picking another RB (Darren McFadden) when three starting-caliber ones were on the roster, signing DL Tommy Kelly to a record-setting contract and paying more big money to WR Javon Walker, whose injury and personal histories have not be sparkling of late. Still, this is a team with a lot of talent. If Coach Lane Kiffin can continue to build a winning culture, Russell matures and the defense tightens up, the Raiders have the look of a surprise team.
Expect Al Davis' Wrath If: The defense doesn't improve against the run and the Raiders don't at least contend for a playoff spot.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
2007 record: 11-5
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Sunny
There should be no more questions about Norv Turner's coaching. The Bolts rebounded from a 3-3 start to win the West going away, and they came within one game of reaching the Super Bowl despite injuries to RB LaDainian Tomlinson, QB Philip Rivers and TE Antonio Gates. Obviously, the health of those three and center Nick Hardwick and NT Jamal Williams are of paramount importance. With a full training camp to get integrated into the Chargers' system, expect WR Chris Chambers to be even more valuable. This is a team with no major weaknesses, one primed for another long playoff run.
Expect a Tsunami If: Any of the key players are injured again at playoff time. For San Diego and its fans, it's Super Bowl or bust.

Next: NFC East

Taking a look at the AFC South

Taking a look at the AFC South Division as training camp opens
(Teams listed in alphabetical order)

HOUSTON TEXANS
2007 record: 8-8
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, chance for periods of sun
The Texans are slowly establishing a solid offense. That it was 14th in the NFL last season despite injuries to QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson is a testament to both Coach Gary Kubiak and the club's ability to gradually upgrade perpetual trouble spots such as the line and receiving depth. Houston needs someone from among injury-prone Ahman Green and Chris Brown or rookie Steve Slaton to step up in the running game. The defense has outstanding players in DE Mario Williams and LB DeMeco Ryans, but just not enough of them.
The Price of Texas T Will Plummet If: No one steps up in the running game and CB Dunta Robinson (out first half of season because of a knee injury) can't make it back in 2008.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
2007 record: 13-3
Camp opens: July 24
The Forecast: Sunny
Like the swallows returning to San Juan Capistrano annually, the Colts will win at least 12 games if QB Peyton Manning is healthy. And this year, that is not a given because of his recent knee surgery. The Colts have talent at every position, but maybe not the depth to absorb the injuries like they had last year, especially WR Marvin Harrison and DE Dwight Freeney. It also doesn't help that TE Dallas Clark and S Bob Sanders get nicked a lot. Still, Indy always reloads, and for a team that is rightly considered an offensive powerhouse, people forget the Colts had the No. 3 defense WITHOUT Freeney in 2007.
The Road Will Be Rough If: Manning misses more than a game or two because of his injury. With all the injuries the Colts endured last season, he and Sanders are the team's most indispensable players.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
2007 record: 11-5
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Sunny
The Jags are a team with few, if any, discernable weaknesses. QB David Garrard is efficient and can make plays in the clutch, the running game is punishing, and the receivers have been upgraded. Both lines are solid, as are the linebackers and special teams. Jacksonville addressed its needs in the offseason (WR and DL) and is a physical club that does not make many mistakes. This is a club positioned to not only challenge the Colts but make a Super Bowl run.
Jaguars Go on Endangered Species List If: The D line is young, so injuries to veterans there or to Garrard would hurt.

TENNESSEE TITANS
2007 record: 10-6
Camp opens: July 25
The Forecast: Partly sunny, some clouds
A funny thing happened on the way to rebuilding, the Titans won four of their final five games to make the playoffs. Their defense is outstanding, especially against the run. Adding rookie RB Chris Johnson and pairing him with the emerging LenDale White should ensure the Titans' ground game is solid. Really, any gains the Titans make are tied to QB Vince Young and a barely average receiving core. The Titans receivers caught only eight TD passes all of 2007. 17 PLAYERS caught more.
The Grand Ole Oprey Is Safe But: If Young (9-17 TD-INT ration in '07) doesn't improve it's tough to see Tennessee repeating last season's playoff berth.

Next: AFC West