Catching up on the NFL Season

Yeah, I know. It's been a while. All I can say is hockey happens! Lots of stuff transpiring since hockey season started, but the NFL season is getting interesting so it's time to get back on this horse, too.

A few observations with six weeks to go in the regular season:

Defense wins.
Exhibit A - Titans, Tennessee.
Exhibit B - Giants, New York.

The reason these two teams appear to be the best in the league right now is they are equally adept at stopping the run and the pass.

Don't be fooled by these teams:
1. Baltimore - the Ravens face three more NFC East teams down the stretch plus Pittsburgh again. 9-7 would be a great finish for the Ravens.
2. N.Y. Jets - Much is made of the Jets' improved defense, but in reality, they've had an easy schedule and thus have been able to overcome numerous turnovers on offense.
3. New Orleans - the preseason NFC South pick, the Saints can't stop anyone and are inconsisent running the ball. Their division has improved but they've regressed. I don't think they'll win eight games.
4. San Diego - It's tough for me to think of a more disappointing team than the Chargers. Playing in one of the two worst divisions in football, they are 4-6. The talent is there, but they can't seem to sustain drives when they need to or get defensive stops at key junctures.

Watch out down the stretch for these teams:
1. Indianapolis - the Colts are getting healthy and have won three in a row. Their schedule down the stretch is easy. Unfortunately for them they're playing for a wild-card spot.
2. Green Bay - Yes, I'm a homer, but if the Packers play as they did Sunday when they wiped out the Bears, they will win the NFC North and maybe a playoff game.
3. Dallas - Yup, I'm still on their bandwagon. This is a team with too much talent not to be a factor. In fact, I would not be shocked if they face the Giants at some point in the playoffs.
4. Pittsburgh - Sure the Steelers are leading the AFC North, but the worst part of their schedule is over and they're still standing. If they are remotely healthy, they are the biggest threat to the Titans in the AFC.

A bad year to be from California:
Three coaching changes at mid-stream - Raiders, 49ers and Rams. Turn back the clock to not too long ago, and all three teams were Golden State residents. The fourth team? The Chargers, whose coach, Norv Turner, is not making many points to stay beyond this season.

More to come.

2008 NFL Week 4 preview

What does the firing of a general manager three weeks into a season really accomplish?

Yes, Matt Millen's record as Detroit Lions GM was terrible, both on and off the field. But at this point in the season the scouting process for the 2009 draft is just underway, free agency and contracts aren't really in the picture.

Sure it's a PR move by a team desperate for some positive press, but why wasn't this done in the offseason?

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Washington (2-1) at Dallas (3-0): The Cowboys ran the ball and pressured the quarterback impressively at Green Bay on Sunday night. If the Redskins can't stop the run and protect QB Jason Campbell, they're in for a long day. But if Washington can do both of those things, it has a chance in this rivalry game. DE Jason Taylor's injury comes at a bad time for the Redskins. The pick: Dallas

Green Bay (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1): How well will the Packers bounce back from their loss to Dallas? And can they pressure QB Brian Griese enough to compensate for their decimated secondary (three starters out). Griese threw for more than 400 yards against a much better secondary last week, so it's not hard to predict the route the Bucs will go. The Packers have to run the ball well to have a chance. The pick: Tampa in a high-scoring game.

Baltimore (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-1): The AFC Central is there for the taking for these two teams, both of which have some serious holes. The Ravens have no passing game and the Steelers can't pass block. Pittsburgh will be without RB Willie Parker, which really hurts, and it was dominated by a physical Philadelphia team last week. This week it plays a team coached by a former Eagles assistant. The pick: Baltimore keeps it going in a very low-scoring game.

GAMES OF THE WEAK (and there are plenty):

Cleveland (0-3) at Cincinnati (0-3): Someone has to win. It's mind-boggling that two teams with so much talent on offense are doing so little with it.

Houston (0-2) at Jacksonville (1-2): Expect the Jaguars to start rolling after last week's win at Indianapolis.

Buffalo (3-0) at St. Louis (0-3): A trap game for the Bills? I don't think they can take anything for granted after needing last-minute rallies to win the past few weeks. Rams' lack of offense also surprises me.

Denver (3-0) at Kansas City (0-3): Unless Larry Johnson runs for 300 yards for the Chiefs, this could get ugly in a hurry.

San Diego (1-2) at Oakland (1-2): A sloppy team meets one with that regularly experiences brain lock. Neither has played near its talent level yet.

2008 record: 6-0

NFL 2008: Week 3 Rewind

How much stock should we put into fast and slow starts by certain teams after just three weeks? There certainly are no lack of suprises thus far.

The Elite (or at least the leaders)
There is no question in my mind now that the NFC East is by far the best division in football. Overall record: 10-2. Dallas, Philadelphia and the Giants are the three best teams in the NFC, and Washington isn't too far behind. ... The AFC has what could mildly be termed as surprise teams leading each Division (Denver, Tennessee, Baltimore and Buffalo). Keep in mind, however, Tennessee was a playoff team in 2007 and Buffalo was the team they beat out. Denver apparently has returned to its AFL roots and decided to try to outscore each opponent, while Baltimore is riding its defense to its strong start.

Home curse
I wonder if losses to Chicago and Jacksonville in the first two games there have dampened the enthusiasm for the Colts' new stadium.

O no
Can there be a more disappointed state of NFL fans than those in Ohio, where Cleveland and Cincinnati are both 0-3? The offenses of both clubs have inexplicably gone MIA. The good news is one of them should get a victory Sunday. They meet in Cincinnati.

State of Misery
It's tough to say they're more disappointed in Missouri, where expectations couldn't have been real high for Kansas City and St. Louis ... but this is bordering on ridiculous. The Chiefs and Rams might be the two worst teams in the NFL. The Rams have the NFL's worst defense and second-worst offense (how does that happen with RB Steven Jackson, QB Marc Bulger and WR Torry Holt?) and have been blown out three weeks in a row. And the rebuilding Chiefs have the third-worst offense. At least their young defense is keeping them in some games.

Good byes
Bye weeks start this week with six teams taking a break. The update on each follows.
Indianapolis - The Colts need a week off to heal an early season rash of injuries, particularly on the offensive line. A 1-2 start definitely was not part of the plan, and it could easily be 0-3.
Miami - The Dolphins are coming off a thrashing of the Patriots and have to feel better about themselves after starting with two duds. Still, there is a ways to go in Miami.
New England - The Patriots aren't going to be the offensive juggernaut they were last season, but who knew the defense would be such a problem? Still, I expect them to iron things out during their down time.
Seattle - I don't think Coach Mike Holmgren had planned on a 1-2 start, but then when you have six receivers injured, it's tough to win. More alarming should be the defense's disappearing act.
NY Giants - I can't wait until they play the Eagles and the Cowboys. The champs are playing like it.
Detroit - Good thing the Rams are in the NFC or I would write the Lions are the worst team in the conference. They have overpaid for older free agents so their defense isn't any better, and their offense - particularly QB Jon Kitna - continues to make mistake after mistake to take them out of games.

NFL 2008: Week 2 forecast

What are we to make of the AFC? If the pundits are to be believed, all of the favorites - San Diego, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and even New England - are doomed.

Not so fast.

Yes, the Patriots have lost QB Tom Brady for the season, but they have the rest of a championship-caliber team in place. Yes, Chargers Pro Bowl LB Shawn Merriman decided to have knee surgery and will miss the season. Yes, the offensive lines of the Colts and Jaguars are battered, with Jacksonville losing both of its starting guard for the season.

But as we used to say in the newspaper business as deadline approached: "It's early."

I would hesitate to rule any of those four teams out.

ROOKIE DAY
Can it get much better in Atlanta and Baltimore? Not only did rookie QBs Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco win their debuts, but they did so under the guidance of first-year coaches Mike Smith and John Harbaugh. As bad as things were for both franchises last season (awful in Atlanta and disappointing in Baltimore), Week 1 offered hope.

GAMES OF THE WEEK
New England (1-0) at N.Y. Jets (1-0): The Jets are suddenly a fashionable pick to win the AFC East behind QB Brett Favre and an improved pass rush. Not so fast. If there is one team Coach Bill Belichick will ahve the Patriots up for, it is the Jets, who started the Spygate controversy last season. The pick: Patriots.

Chicago (1-0) at Carolina (1-0): Two teams who scored road upsets in Week 1 square off in Charlotte. The Bears road rookie RB Matt Forte's rushing and a stout defense to a surprisingly easy victory over the Colts. QB Jake Delhomme, meanwhile, might have gotten a bionic arm when he underwent season-ending elbow surgery last season. Delhomme led the Panthers to a stunning upset of the Chargers without suspended WR Steve Smith. This will be a physical game, but Delhomme again will be the difference. The pick: Panthers.

Philadelphia (1-0) at Dallas (1-0): Two NFC East teams coming off blowout victories square off in Big D. The Cowboys' rout of the Browns was more impressive than the Eagles' walkover against the Rams. QB Donovan McNabb appears to be back at a Pro Bowl level, and the Eagles have upgraded their team speed. The Eagles' secondary matches up well with the Cowboys' passing game, so if they can slow RB Marion Barber, who has bruised ribs, I like the visitors. The pick: Eagles.

GAMES OF THE WEAK:
N.Y. Giants (1-0) at St. Louis (0-1): The Giants played like the champs in their opening victory against Washington. The Rams played like they're going to draft first overall again in getting drilled by the Eagles.

Oakland (0-1) at Kansas City (0-1): Someone has to win, right? The Chiefs played the Patriots tougher than many expected last week, but Brady's injury had something to do with that. The Raiders again rolled over for the Broncos.

PICK RECORDS
Last week: 3-0
Season: 3-0

NFL 2008: Week 1 forecast

What to look for in Week 1 of the NFL season? High scores.

Offenses typically have the element of surprise the first 2-3 weeks of the season. Once defenses get current film, scoring levels off. I expect this season to be no exception, particularly with the amount of players who sat out significant portions of the preseason.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Dallas at Cleveland: Are the Browns ready for national TV? A fashionable pick to advance into the playoffs, the Browns begin a rough schedule with a stern test. The Cowboys, meanwhile, have fortified their lineup with LB Zach Thomas and CB Adam Jones in addition to rookie RB Felix Jones in order to make a Super Bowl run. The key matchup will be can the Browns' upgraded defensive line stop RB Marion Barber and pressure QB Tony Romo. If so, this will be interesting. If not, Dallas will win going away. The pick: Cowboys win a tough one on the road.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Last year's NFC South champion visits the favorite to win it this season. The Saints, who were briefly displaced by Hurricane Gustav, should have added incentive to not repeat 2007's 0-4 start. It's easy to discount the Bucs, who are not a flashy team, but this will be stiff test for the Saints, who rate a big edge in offensive firepower. The pick: the Saints.

NY Jets at Miami: The Jets' old QB - Chad Pennington - faces their new one - Brett Favre (that still doesn't sound right). New York acted in free agency like a team that expects play deep into the playoffs (and that was before obtaining Favre last month). The Dolphins acted like a team starting over. Miami will be better this season, but not on this day. The pick: The Jets.

GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
Minnesota at Green Bay: The first half of the Monday doubleheader features someone other than Favre starting at quarterback for the Packers for the first time since September 1992. That would be Aaron Rodgers, whom you might have read about this summer. Expect the Vikings to bring pressure from all angles because the Packers feature an elite receiving core.

Houston at Pittsburgh: The Texans believe they're close to being a playoff team. The Steelers perennially are one. This could be a meaningful tie-breaker game at season's end in the tight AFC.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Detroit at Atlanta: These will be two of the worst teams in the NFL. Mark it down.

Kansas City at New England: The Chiefs are rebuilding. The Patriots are mad ... and extremely talented. Not a good combination for KC.