The Magazines have spoken, at least the ones that I trust, about the 2008 NFL season. What follows are their projections for the upcoming season, which kicks off in a week.
Pro Football Weekly (which joined forces with CBSSports.com) predicts New England beating Dallas in the Super Bowl.
Here is its division-by-division breakdown:
AFC East
1. New England; 2. Buffalo; 3. NY Jets; 4. Miami
AFC North
1. Cleveland; 2. Pittsburgh; 3. Cincinnati; 4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Houston; 4. Tennessee
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Oakland; 4. Kansas City
NFC East
1. Dallas; 2. NY Giants; 3. Philadelphia; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Green Bay; 2. Minnesota; 3. Chicago; 4. Detroit
NFC South
1. New Orleans; 2. Carolina; 3. Tampa Bay; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. Arizona; 3. St. Louis; 4. San Francisco
Analysis: I wonder about Cleveland and Green Bay winning their divisions, and there are some orders of division picks that I question.
The Sporting News, which merged with Street and Smith's, sees the Chargers defeating Dallas in the Super Bowl.
AFC East
1. New England; 2. NY Jets; 3. Buffalo; 4. Miami
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh; 2. Cincinnati; 3. Cleveland; 4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Tennessee; 4. Houston
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Kansas City; 4. Oakland
NFC East
1. Dallas; 2. NY Giants; 3. Philadelphia; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Green Bay; 2. Chicago; 3. Minnesota; 4. Detroit
NFC South
1. New Orleans; 2. Tampa Bay; 3. Carolina; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. St. Louis; 3. Arizona; 4. San Francisco
Analysis: Of the three, this is the most solid to me with a few exceptions. I don't see the Rams or Bengals finishing nearly that high or the Vikings that low.
And Sports Illustrated foresees New England defeating Philadelphia in the Super Bowl
AFC East
1. New England; 2. NY Jets; 3. Buffalo; 4. Miami
AFC North
1.Pittsburgh; 2. Cleveland; 3. Baltimore; 4. Cincinnati
AFC South
1. Indianapolis; 2. Jacksonville; 3. Tennessee; 4. Houston
AFC West
1. San Diego; 2. Denver; 3. Kansas City; 4. Oakland
NFC East
1. Philadelphia; 2. Dallas; 3. NY Giants; 4. Washington
NFC North
1. Minnesota; 2. Green Bay; 3. Detroit; 4. Chicago
NFC South
1. Tampa Bay; 2. Carolina; 3. New Orleans; 4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle; 2. Arizona; 3. San Francisco; 4. St. Louis
Analysis: Every season SI should preface Dr. Z's picks by disclosing his heavy East Coast bias. How else does one explain the Eagles winning the NFC East over Dallas? Putting Tennessee in the playoffs again this year seems a reach to me, too.
Consensus division winners:
AFC East - New England
AFC South - Indianapolis
AFC West - San Diego
NFC West - Seattle
Other consensus playoff teams - NY Giants, Jacksonville, Dallas.
Coming up: My AFC and NFC breakdowns and predictions
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Monday, July 14, 2008
Bye Brett, Why It Makes Sense for the Packers to Move On
I just can't help myself.
But what do you expect from a guy who grew up blocks from Lambeau Field? I have to add two more cents to the Brett Favre drama.
Favre's place in Packers history likely will be secure in the long run regardless of how this unnecessary soap opera of will he or won't he plays out.
I think Favre is being selfish. The Packers have bent over backward for four seasons (or more, who really knows at this point?) to accommodate his decision-making processes. At some point, wisdom dictates you have to move on, particularly with a 38-year-old quarterback in the NFL.
As Dr. Z wrote on SI.com, many are the aged quarterbacks who failed after going to new teams late in their careers - Namath, Unitas, Montana - to name three.
I can't see Favre enjoying near the level of success he has in Green Bay for three simple reasons:
1. Few, if any, teams have the depth of talent at receiver that Packers have.
2. Few, if any, teams will provide him the comfort level with an offense that he enjoys in Green Bay. There is a reason it took him several years to hit his stride under Coach Mike Holmgren and two under Coach Mike McCarthy. It takes time to adjust to new offenses no matter who you are (more on this later).
3. Anything short of a Super Bowl in a new city would be considered a failure, and if Favre thinks he is under the microscope in Green Bay, try New York, Carolina, Washington, Chicago or Minnesota, where teams believe they are one Brett Favre away from w inning it all. This would be incredible pressure.
So what is the Packers' problem with him changing his mind?
Two things.
First, McCarthy tailored the Packers' offense to suit Favre's strengths, which are many. Few can match his arm strength and experience. However, his mobility has declined dramatically in the past 4-5 seasons, and his decision-making often leaves much to be desired. But that's part of the package and most Packers fans gladly have lived with the picks as well as the wins. ... When Favre retired, changed his mind, then unchanged his mind in the spring, the Packers had to move forward from a strategy standpoint. That means making the offense more friendly to a younger, more accurate, more mobile but less experienced quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. The Packers spent all of their mini-camps and OTAs implementing changes to enhance Rodgers' skills and mask his deficiencies. Changing everything back is not as easy as it might seem in this era of increasingly complex NFL offenses.
Second, what sort of message does this send the team? That Favre can do whatever he wants? Coach Mike Sherman allowed that, and the result was one of the club's worst seasons ever in 2005. And what sort of message does it send to Aaron Rodgers, who has endured the will he or won't he talk for four years? Rodgers is the present and the future for the Packers under center. To jeopardize that to placate the indecisive Favre and his "fans" is simply stupid from a football standpoint. The Packers must find out what they have in Rodgers. After all, they've invested four seasons in him at this point, and if he leaves after next season and lights it up for another team, it will rank as a bigger waste than paying Brett Favre another $12 million to sit on the bench.
Brett Favre is one of my all-time favorite football players, and that won't change with this episode. I own his jerseys. I own his football cards. However, his selfish or at the least confused attitude has left a bad taste in my mouth.
But what do you expect from a guy who grew up blocks from Lambeau Field? I have to add two more cents to the Brett Favre drama.
Favre's place in Packers history likely will be secure in the long run regardless of how this unnecessary soap opera of will he or won't he plays out.
I think Favre is being selfish. The Packers have bent over backward for four seasons (or more, who really knows at this point?) to accommodate his decision-making processes. At some point, wisdom dictates you have to move on, particularly with a 38-year-old quarterback in the NFL.
As Dr. Z wrote on SI.com, many are the aged quarterbacks who failed after going to new teams late in their careers - Namath, Unitas, Montana - to name three.
I can't see Favre enjoying near the level of success he has in Green Bay for three simple reasons:
1. Few, if any, teams have the depth of talent at receiver that Packers have.
2. Few, if any, teams will provide him the comfort level with an offense that he enjoys in Green Bay. There is a reason it took him several years to hit his stride under Coach Mike Holmgren and two under Coach Mike McCarthy. It takes time to adjust to new offenses no matter who you are (more on this later).
3. Anything short of a Super Bowl in a new city would be considered a failure, and if Favre thinks he is under the microscope in Green Bay, try New York, Carolina, Washington, Chicago or Minnesota, where teams believe they are one Brett Favre away from w inning it all. This would be incredible pressure.
So what is the Packers' problem with him changing his mind?
Two things.
First, McCarthy tailored the Packers' offense to suit Favre's strengths, which are many. Few can match his arm strength and experience. However, his mobility has declined dramatically in the past 4-5 seasons, and his decision-making often leaves much to be desired. But that's part of the package and most Packers fans gladly have lived with the picks as well as the wins. ... When Favre retired, changed his mind, then unchanged his mind in the spring, the Packers had to move forward from a strategy standpoint. That means making the offense more friendly to a younger, more accurate, more mobile but less experienced quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. The Packers spent all of their mini-camps and OTAs implementing changes to enhance Rodgers' skills and mask his deficiencies. Changing everything back is not as easy as it might seem in this era of increasingly complex NFL offenses.
Second, what sort of message does this send the team? That Favre can do whatever he wants? Coach Mike Sherman allowed that, and the result was one of the club's worst seasons ever in 2005. And what sort of message does it send to Aaron Rodgers, who has endured the will he or won't he talk for four years? Rodgers is the present and the future for the Packers under center. To jeopardize that to placate the indecisive Favre and his "fans" is simply stupid from a football standpoint. The Packers must find out what they have in Rodgers. After all, they've invested four seasons in him at this point, and if he leaves after next season and lights it up for another team, it will rank as a bigger waste than paying Brett Favre another $12 million to sit on the bench.
Brett Favre is one of my all-time favorite football players, and that won't change with this episode. I own his jerseys. I own his football cards. However, his selfish or at the least confused attitude has left a bad taste in my mouth.
Friday, December 28, 2007
NFL 2007 rewind
Each NFL season I like to take Week 17 to look back at what the prognosticators, including yours truly, had to say before the season. To review my division-by-division predictions, visit the bottom of the September 2007 archive page.
Legend:
SI = Sports Illustrated
PFW = Pro Football Weekly
TSN = The Sporting News
Me = Yours truly
AFC East
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Patriots Pats Pats Pats
2 Jets Jets Jets Jets
3 Bills Bills Bills Bills
4 Dolphins Fins Fins Fins
Comment: No one saw a potential 16-0 Patriots season, and no one foresaw the Jets’ and Dolphins’ near-complete meltdowns.
From my fingers: “If QB JP Losman trends upward again, the Bills may surprise.” I was half right. Rookie QB Trent Edwards helped the Bills get on track.
AFC North
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Bengals Ravens Bengals Ravens
2 Ravens Bengals Ravens Bengals
3 Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
4 Browns Browns Browns Browns
Comment: No one even came close on this division. The Steelers were a mild surprise and the Browns were a huge one. As disappointing as the Bengals were, the Ravens’ fall from 13-3 to 4-11 is stunning.
From my fingers: “If anyone can get the football to TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards, (the Browns) might be on to something.” But I completely blew this: “I see more questions than answers with (the Steelers).”
AFC South
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Colts Colts Colts Colts
2 Titans Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
3 Jaguars Titans Titans Texans
4 Texans Texans Texans Titans
Comment: PFW and TSN nailed it. I liked Houston to be even more improved than it was, and I figured Tennessee could not overcome all of its offseason losses.
From my fingers: “As much as (Vince Young) runs with the ball, it's hard to imagine he won't get injured at some point, which would make the Titans one of the league's worst teams.” Well, they survived his injuries to contend for a playoff spot and prove me wrong.
AFC West
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
2 Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos
3 Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
4 Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders
Comment: The order was right, but everyone thought the Broncos would be a playoff team. Oops.
From my fingers: “If QB Jay Cutler improves and RB Travis Henry gets healthy, (Denver’s) offense will be high-powered. Stopping the run will be the barometer of the defense, perhaps ultimately the team's success.”
My playoff picks: New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, Denver, New York.
Actual: New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Jacksonville and either Cleveland or Tennessee.
NFC East
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Eagles Eagles Cowboys Cowboys
2 Cowboys Cowboys Eagles Eagles
3 Giants Redskins Giants Redskins
4 Redskins Giants Redskins Giants
Comment: Allow me to gloat about the Cowboys and Redskins, but everyone overrated the Eagles and underrated the Giants.
From my fingers: “A (Giants) team that appears unsettled under Coach Tom Coghlin might come apart at the seems by midseason.” Actually, the Giants were coming together and playing very well at that point.
NFC North
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Bears Bears Bears Bears
2 Packers Packers Packers Packers
3 Vikings Lions Vikings Vikings
4 Lions Vikings Lions Lions
Comment: No one saw the Packers’ rise to 12-3 and the Bears’ fall. The Vikings also rank as a surprise team.
From my fingers: “The Pack has no one, literally, to run the ball, and that will be their undoing. Had they kept Ahman Green or acquired a suitable replacement, they'd be a playoff team.” Meet Ryan Grant everyone.
NFC South
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Saints Saints Saints Saints
2 Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers
3 Bucs Bucs Falcons Bucs
4 Falcons Falcons Bucs Falcons
Comment: This ranks with the AFC North as the surprise division. No one saw the Bucs’ comeback. The Saints probably weren’t as good as they appeared in 2006, nor as bad as they appeared early in 2007. TSN really blew this one – the Bucs last?
From my fingers: “The Panthers get (the No. 2) spot by default because I think the teams below them are horrible. Two years ago, Carolina looked like a budding dynasty, but now it appears to have a lot of holes.” Guess the Bucs weren’t so horrible.
NFC West
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Seahawks Seahawks 49ers Seahawks
2 Rams 49ers Seahawks 49ers
3 49ers Rams Rams Rams
4 Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals
Comment: The injury bug bit the Rams hard, but TSN again takes it on the chin here. Based upon this, the Cardinals have to rank as a surprise team.
From my fingers: “A fashionable pick as a division winner, the 49ers need three things to happen for that to become a reality: Alex Smith must continue to progress at QB (and do so despite his third coordinator in three seasons), RB Frank Gore must stay healthy (he was nicked in preseason and has a lengthy college injury history), and the Niners need some receivers to emerge.” Smith and Gore were hurt, and Smith is beginning to look like a bust.
My playoff teams: Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco
Actual: Dallas, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay, New York and either Washington, Minnesota or New Orleans.
Legend:
SI = Sports Illustrated
PFW = Pro Football Weekly
TSN = The Sporting News
Me = Yours truly
AFC East
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Patriots Pats Pats Pats
2 Jets Jets Jets Jets
3 Bills Bills Bills Bills
4 Dolphins Fins Fins Fins
Comment: No one saw a potential 16-0 Patriots season, and no one foresaw the Jets’ and Dolphins’ near-complete meltdowns.
From my fingers: “If QB JP Losman trends upward again, the Bills may surprise.” I was half right. Rookie QB Trent Edwards helped the Bills get on track.
AFC North
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Bengals Ravens Bengals Ravens
2 Ravens Bengals Ravens Bengals
3 Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
4 Browns Browns Browns Browns
Comment: No one even came close on this division. The Steelers were a mild surprise and the Browns were a huge one. As disappointing as the Bengals were, the Ravens’ fall from 13-3 to 4-11 is stunning.
From my fingers: “If anyone can get the football to TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards, (the Browns) might be on to something.” But I completely blew this: “I see more questions than answers with (the Steelers).”
AFC South
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Colts Colts Colts Colts
2 Titans Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
3 Jaguars Titans Titans Texans
4 Texans Texans Texans Titans
Comment: PFW and TSN nailed it. I liked Houston to be even more improved than it was, and I figured Tennessee could not overcome all of its offseason losses.
From my fingers: “As much as (Vince Young) runs with the ball, it's hard to imagine he won't get injured at some point, which would make the Titans one of the league's worst teams.” Well, they survived his injuries to contend for a playoff spot and prove me wrong.
AFC West
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
2 Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos
3 Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
4 Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders
Comment: The order was right, but everyone thought the Broncos would be a playoff team. Oops.
From my fingers: “If QB Jay Cutler improves and RB Travis Henry gets healthy, (Denver’s) offense will be high-powered. Stopping the run will be the barometer of the defense, perhaps ultimately the team's success.”
My playoff picks: New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, Denver, New York.
Actual: New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Jacksonville and either Cleveland or Tennessee.
NFC East
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Eagles Eagles Cowboys Cowboys
2 Cowboys Cowboys Eagles Eagles
3 Giants Redskins Giants Redskins
4 Redskins Giants Redskins Giants
Comment: Allow me to gloat about the Cowboys and Redskins, but everyone overrated the Eagles and underrated the Giants.
From my fingers: “A (Giants) team that appears unsettled under Coach Tom Coghlin might come apart at the seems by midseason.” Actually, the Giants were coming together and playing very well at that point.
NFC North
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Bears Bears Bears Bears
2 Packers Packers Packers Packers
3 Vikings Lions Vikings Vikings
4 Lions Vikings Lions Lions
Comment: No one saw the Packers’ rise to 12-3 and the Bears’ fall. The Vikings also rank as a surprise team.
From my fingers: “The Pack has no one, literally, to run the ball, and that will be their undoing. Had they kept Ahman Green or acquired a suitable replacement, they'd be a playoff team.” Meet Ryan Grant everyone.
NFC South
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Saints Saints Saints Saints
2 Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers
3 Bucs Bucs Falcons Bucs
4 Falcons Falcons Bucs Falcons
Comment: This ranks with the AFC North as the surprise division. No one saw the Bucs’ comeback. The Saints probably weren’t as good as they appeared in 2006, nor as bad as they appeared early in 2007. TSN really blew this one – the Bucs last?
From my fingers: “The Panthers get (the No. 2) spot by default because I think the teams below them are horrible. Two years ago, Carolina looked like a budding dynasty, but now it appears to have a lot of holes.” Guess the Bucs weren’t so horrible.
NFC West
Predicted
order SI PFW TSN Me
1 Seahawks Seahawks 49ers Seahawks
2 Rams 49ers Seahawks 49ers
3 49ers Rams Rams Rams
4 Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals
Comment: The injury bug bit the Rams hard, but TSN again takes it on the chin here. Based upon this, the Cardinals have to rank as a surprise team.
From my fingers: “A fashionable pick as a division winner, the 49ers need three things to happen for that to become a reality: Alex Smith must continue to progress at QB (and do so despite his third coordinator in three seasons), RB Frank Gore must stay healthy (he was nicked in preseason and has a lengthy college injury history), and the Niners need some receivers to emerge.” Smith and Gore were hurt, and Smith is beginning to look like a bust.
My playoff teams: Dallas, Philadelphia, Chicago, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco
Actual: Dallas, Green Bay, Seattle, Tampa Bay, New York and either Washington, Minnesota or New Orleans.
Friday, December 21, 2007
NFL Week 16 preview
Who says there are no good matchups left this season?
Washington (7-7) at Minnesota (8-6) has NFC wild-card implications and is an elimination game for the Redskins.
The New York Giants (9-5) have to travel to Buffalo (7-7), where once-paralyzed Kevin Everrett is expected to be honored. A Giants loss and wins by New Orleans and Minnesota, and New York would face a must-win vs. the Patriots next Sunday.
Speaking of, the 14-0 Pats host the 1-13 Dolphins. So many story lines here. Undefeated season on the line against the last franchise to accomplish the feat. The presence of former New England coach and Bill Belichick mentor, Bill Parcells, in the Dolphins' front office. Then there is the weather factor.
The battle for NFC playoff positioning continues as well. Dallas has to bounce back on the road at Carolina and retain home-field advantage, while Green Bay looks to exact revenge on one of two teams - Chicago - that defeated it this season.
Seattle, Tampa Bay and San Diego are jockeying for the No. 3 spot in their respective conferences. Jacksonville, Cleveland and Tennessee are battling for AFC wild-card slots.
Upset specials: I see three this week - I think Washington will beat Minnesota to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Vikings were not overly impressive in beating the Bears and have a shorter week. ... I think Houston will surprise Indianapolis, which will rest a lot of players as its locked into the AFC's No. 2 playoff spot. ... And San Francisco will upset visiting Tampa Bay.
Season record on upset picks: 7-8 and in quite a slump.
Washington (7-7) at Minnesota (8-6) has NFC wild-card implications and is an elimination game for the Redskins.
The New York Giants (9-5) have to travel to Buffalo (7-7), where once-paralyzed Kevin Everrett is expected to be honored. A Giants loss and wins by New Orleans and Minnesota, and New York would face a must-win vs. the Patriots next Sunday.
Speaking of, the 14-0 Pats host the 1-13 Dolphins. So many story lines here. Undefeated season on the line against the last franchise to accomplish the feat. The presence of former New England coach and Bill Belichick mentor, Bill Parcells, in the Dolphins' front office. Then there is the weather factor.
The battle for NFC playoff positioning continues as well. Dallas has to bounce back on the road at Carolina and retain home-field advantage, while Green Bay looks to exact revenge on one of two teams - Chicago - that defeated it this season.
Seattle, Tampa Bay and San Diego are jockeying for the No. 3 spot in their respective conferences. Jacksonville, Cleveland and Tennessee are battling for AFC wild-card slots.
Upset specials: I see three this week - I think Washington will beat Minnesota to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Vikings were not overly impressive in beating the Bears and have a shorter week. ... I think Houston will surprise Indianapolis, which will rest a lot of players as its locked into the AFC's No. 2 playoff spot. ... And San Francisco will upset visiting Tampa Bay.
Season record on upset picks: 7-8 and in quite a slump.
An Extra Helping of Tuna
Well, this didn't take very long.
Bill Parcells was masterful in playing the Dolphins against the Falcons this week, ultimately gaining more money and power in the process to run the entire Dolphins football operation less than one year than leaving his job as Cowboys coach.
This isn't the first time the Tuna has had a fishing expedition such as this. His record indicates two things - he won't stay long in Miami (lasted no more than four years in his past three NFL jobs), but the Dolphins will be in far better shape when he departs than when he arrived (all three teams - Patriots, Jets and Cowboys became playoff teams).
What that in mind, I'd like to take a look at the status of the coaches in the NFL. I expect more offseason turnover in the AFC than the NFC this year:
AFC
Baltimore - Yes, Brian Billick has won a Super Bowl, but that was six seasons ago, and the Ravens have lost eight in a row after a 4-10 start. The team is aging at several key positions and there are signs of dissension. This will be the second losing season in three years, wrapped around a 13-3 campaign that ended with a divisional-round playoff loss. It might be time for a change as the Ravens rebuild.
Buffalo - The Bills have overcome numerous injuries and free-agent losses to post a 7-7 record. Dick Jauron has done an excellent job.
Cincinnati - The Bengals have gone from 11 wins to eight to five in the past three seasons. Another team seemingly in disarray, Coach Marvin Lewis might pay.
Cleveland - Romeo Crennel has the Browns at 9-5 and in serious contention for a playoff spot. One more victory, and Cleveland will equal its total from the past two seasons.
Denver - Has the master lost his touch? After not winning fewer than nine games in the past five seasons, Mike Shanahan's Broncos have to win out just to hit seven Ws. More disturbing, they've gone from 13 to 9 to 5 in the win category in spite of annual retooling.
Houston - Year 2 of the Gary Kubiak era has gone well, showing improvement in wins (6 to 7 with two games left) and competitiveness. Keeping the skill position players healthy on offense should lead to further improvement.
Indianapolis - Tony Dungy has the Colts at 12-2 despite numerous injuries, free-agent losses and the Super Bowl champion's target.
Jacksonville - The Jags have bounced back under Jack Del Rio and could make a lot of noise in the playoffs as a wild-card. This team plays to its strengths (running, defense) as well as any. Plus, making the call to release QB Byron Leftwich and go with David Garrard was brilliant, albeit tough.
Kansas City - The Chiefs lost RB Larry Johnson to injury and struggled at QB, but four wins after making the playoffs last season and winning 19 games the past two seasons combined? I think Herm Edwards will get a third season, but it's debatable.
Miami - Cam Cameron has overseen a 1-13 disaster. With Parcells' entrance, I foresee a massive house cleaning.
New England - Bill Belichick can stay as long as he likes, particularly if the Pats go 19-0.
New York - In one season Eric Mangini has gone from "Man-genius" to "Oh Man!" as the Jets have fallen from 10-6 to 3-11. Still, it would be a mild surprise if he was shown the door.
Oakland - It's tough to tell if anything has improved under first-year coach Lane Kiffin. It's not thee 2-14 disaster of 2006, but I think the plan was to win more than four games and establish some semblance of an ascent. Frankly, I would not be shocked if the Raiders switched coaches again. The problem is their talent level is not as deep as they might have thought.
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin was an excellent hire, and the Steelers are heading back to the playoffs with a bit more balance on offense and their trademark defense.
San Diego - After a 1-3 start, the Chargers have hit their stride under Norv Turner, who took a lot of heat early. If the Bolts are healthy, they have the talent to make noise in the playoffs.
Tennessee - Year-in, year-out, the Titans play hard. They'll likely improve on last season's eight wins with middle-of-the-pack talent and could reach the playoffs. Jeff Fisher has reinforced to me that he's one of the best in the business.
NFC
Arizona - Racked by injuries to some of their best players (Matt Leinart, Adrian Wilson, Eric Green and Anquan Boldin), the Cardinals have been much more competitive under first-year coach Ken Whisenhunt.
Atlanta - It just keeps getting worse here. The next coach will have his work cut out for him.
Carolina - The Panthers need to win their final two games to match last season's 8-8 record. They're on their fourth QB of the season, but their defense has been more hit and miss than in the past. Still, John Fox seems safe.
Chicago - Lovie Smith has done a good job with a team that has shown a lot of vulnerabilities due to injuries, a shaky QB situation and some key free-agent losses (RB Thomas Jones and several D linemen).
Dallas - If the Cowboys don't at least reach the Super Bowl or other teams try to poach offensive coordinator to be their head coach, I could see owner Jerry Jones pulling the plug on Wade Phillips and naming Garrett coach.
Detroit - The Lions are improving under Rod Marinelli, but the losing culture that has been so prevalent still needs some overhauling. A 6-2 start has turned into 6-8.
Green Bay - The youngest team in the league has won 16 of its past 18 games since starting 4-8 under Mike McCarthy. Brett Favre looks better, the ground game is coming around and the defense and special teams are special.
Minnesota - Brad Childress has remained patient, stuck with his plan and it's paying off. Minnesota has won five in a row to pull into playoff contention and already has one more win than last season.
New Orleans - The reality is the Saints weren't as good as last season's NFC Championship Game appearance indicated and not as bas as their 0-4 start this season. Sean Payton has adjusted well in the face of injuries to his running backs.
New York - The Giants are picking a bad time of the season to get injured and play poorer. Anything less than a playoff spot and it's fairly certain Tom Coghlin is gone. Even if the G-men reach the playoffs and get smoked in the wild-card round he might be gone.
Philadelphia - Another team that has been hammered by injuries and QB controversies, the Eagles would be crazy to let Andy Reid or QB Donovan McNabb go in the offeseason.
St. Louis - The Rams have been hammered by injuries, too, but the amount of penalties and other mistakes they make indicate some coaching issues. They're going to finish with at least four fewer victories than last season's 8-8 squad, and most of their star players aside from Steven Jackson are hitting the age when a decline is possible. I don't like Scott Linehan's chances.
San Francisco - A lot of the momentum gained from last season's seven victories has been lost, again due in part to injuries at QB and RB. I don't know if this team is as bad as four wins, but it's certainly not a playoff team. Mike Nolan isn't going anywhere, but the 49ers have to improve - a lot - on offense to compete.
Seattle - The Seahawks again won the West, and they have the talent to win a few playoff games and maybe reach the Super Bowl. Mike Holmgren continues to do a very good job and not get a lot of recognition for it.
Tampa Bay - Like him or hate him, Jon Gruden has managed rebuild on the fly and win the South. The South is one of the worst divisions in football, but Tampa has gone from four wins to nine and could finish with 11.
Washington - Joe Gibbs' place is secure, but one wonders how much more he'll put up with. The Sean Taylor slaying rocked the team and the league. The past few editions of the Redskins have been up and down, not a description typically used with past Gibbs teams.
Bill Parcells was masterful in playing the Dolphins against the Falcons this week, ultimately gaining more money and power in the process to run the entire Dolphins football operation less than one year than leaving his job as Cowboys coach.
This isn't the first time the Tuna has had a fishing expedition such as this. His record indicates two things - he won't stay long in Miami (lasted no more than four years in his past three NFL jobs), but the Dolphins will be in far better shape when he departs than when he arrived (all three teams - Patriots, Jets and Cowboys became playoff teams).
What that in mind, I'd like to take a look at the status of the coaches in the NFL. I expect more offseason turnover in the AFC than the NFC this year:
AFC
Baltimore - Yes, Brian Billick has won a Super Bowl, but that was six seasons ago, and the Ravens have lost eight in a row after a 4-10 start. The team is aging at several key positions and there are signs of dissension. This will be the second losing season in three years, wrapped around a 13-3 campaign that ended with a divisional-round playoff loss. It might be time for a change as the Ravens rebuild.
Buffalo - The Bills have overcome numerous injuries and free-agent losses to post a 7-7 record. Dick Jauron has done an excellent job.
Cincinnati - The Bengals have gone from 11 wins to eight to five in the past three seasons. Another team seemingly in disarray, Coach Marvin Lewis might pay.
Cleveland - Romeo Crennel has the Browns at 9-5 and in serious contention for a playoff spot. One more victory, and Cleveland will equal its total from the past two seasons.
Denver - Has the master lost his touch? After not winning fewer than nine games in the past five seasons, Mike Shanahan's Broncos have to win out just to hit seven Ws. More disturbing, they've gone from 13 to 9 to 5 in the win category in spite of annual retooling.
Houston - Year 2 of the Gary Kubiak era has gone well, showing improvement in wins (6 to 7 with two games left) and competitiveness. Keeping the skill position players healthy on offense should lead to further improvement.
Indianapolis - Tony Dungy has the Colts at 12-2 despite numerous injuries, free-agent losses and the Super Bowl champion's target.
Jacksonville - The Jags have bounced back under Jack Del Rio and could make a lot of noise in the playoffs as a wild-card. This team plays to its strengths (running, defense) as well as any. Plus, making the call to release QB Byron Leftwich and go with David Garrard was brilliant, albeit tough.
Kansas City - The Chiefs lost RB Larry Johnson to injury and struggled at QB, but four wins after making the playoffs last season and winning 19 games the past two seasons combined? I think Herm Edwards will get a third season, but it's debatable.
Miami - Cam Cameron has overseen a 1-13 disaster. With Parcells' entrance, I foresee a massive house cleaning.
New England - Bill Belichick can stay as long as he likes, particularly if the Pats go 19-0.
New York - In one season Eric Mangini has gone from "Man-genius" to "Oh Man!" as the Jets have fallen from 10-6 to 3-11. Still, it would be a mild surprise if he was shown the door.
Oakland - It's tough to tell if anything has improved under first-year coach Lane Kiffin. It's not thee 2-14 disaster of 2006, but I think the plan was to win more than four games and establish some semblance of an ascent. Frankly, I would not be shocked if the Raiders switched coaches again. The problem is their talent level is not as deep as they might have thought.
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin was an excellent hire, and the Steelers are heading back to the playoffs with a bit more balance on offense and their trademark defense.
San Diego - After a 1-3 start, the Chargers have hit their stride under Norv Turner, who took a lot of heat early. If the Bolts are healthy, they have the talent to make noise in the playoffs.
Tennessee - Year-in, year-out, the Titans play hard. They'll likely improve on last season's eight wins with middle-of-the-pack talent and could reach the playoffs. Jeff Fisher has reinforced to me that he's one of the best in the business.
NFC
Arizona - Racked by injuries to some of their best players (Matt Leinart, Adrian Wilson, Eric Green and Anquan Boldin), the Cardinals have been much more competitive under first-year coach Ken Whisenhunt.
Atlanta - It just keeps getting worse here. The next coach will have his work cut out for him.
Carolina - The Panthers need to win their final two games to match last season's 8-8 record. They're on their fourth QB of the season, but their defense has been more hit and miss than in the past. Still, John Fox seems safe.
Chicago - Lovie Smith has done a good job with a team that has shown a lot of vulnerabilities due to injuries, a shaky QB situation and some key free-agent losses (RB Thomas Jones and several D linemen).
Dallas - If the Cowboys don't at least reach the Super Bowl or other teams try to poach offensive coordinator to be their head coach, I could see owner Jerry Jones pulling the plug on Wade Phillips and naming Garrett coach.
Detroit - The Lions are improving under Rod Marinelli, but the losing culture that has been so prevalent still needs some overhauling. A 6-2 start has turned into 6-8.
Green Bay - The youngest team in the league has won 16 of its past 18 games since starting 4-8 under Mike McCarthy. Brett Favre looks better, the ground game is coming around and the defense and special teams are special.
Minnesota - Brad Childress has remained patient, stuck with his plan and it's paying off. Minnesota has won five in a row to pull into playoff contention and already has one more win than last season.
New Orleans - The reality is the Saints weren't as good as last season's NFC Championship Game appearance indicated and not as bas as their 0-4 start this season. Sean Payton has adjusted well in the face of injuries to his running backs.
New York - The Giants are picking a bad time of the season to get injured and play poorer. Anything less than a playoff spot and it's fairly certain Tom Coghlin is gone. Even if the G-men reach the playoffs and get smoked in the wild-card round he might be gone.
Philadelphia - Another team that has been hammered by injuries and QB controversies, the Eagles would be crazy to let Andy Reid or QB Donovan McNabb go in the offeseason.
St. Louis - The Rams have been hammered by injuries, too, but the amount of penalties and other mistakes they make indicate some coaching issues. They're going to finish with at least four fewer victories than last season's 8-8 squad, and most of their star players aside from Steven Jackson are hitting the age when a decline is possible. I don't like Scott Linehan's chances.
San Francisco - A lot of the momentum gained from last season's seven victories has been lost, again due in part to injuries at QB and RB. I don't know if this team is as bad as four wins, but it's certainly not a playoff team. Mike Nolan isn't going anywhere, but the 49ers have to improve - a lot - on offense to compete.
Seattle - The Seahawks again won the West, and they have the talent to win a few playoff games and maybe reach the Super Bowl. Mike Holmgren continues to do a very good job and not get a lot of recognition for it.
Tampa Bay - Like him or hate him, Jon Gruden has managed rebuild on the fly and win the South. The South is one of the worst divisions in football, but Tampa has gone from four wins to nine and could finish with 11.
Washington - Joe Gibbs' place is secure, but one wonders how much more he'll put up with. The Sean Taylor slaying rocked the team and the league. The past few editions of the Redskins have been up and down, not a description typically used with past Gibbs teams.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Cleaning up Week 15 in the NFL
Refreshing play of the week: Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook stopping at the Dallas 1-yard line on a late run to ensure the Eagles could run out the clock and upset the Cowboys, rather than scoring and giving Dallas a slim chance of rallying.
Warrior of the week: Say what you will about the Dolphins this season, but Miami's Jason Taylor willed his team to win its first game. Taylor was all over the field, blocking a field goal, getting two sacks and playing every play as if it was his last during the Dolphins' overtime victory against the Ravens.
Stats of the week: Two of the top four scorers among kickers are rookies - Green Bay's Mason Crosby (first with 130 points) and Dallas' Nick Folk (fourth, 117). ... 11 running backs have topped 1,000 yards rushing thus far, and another 10 are 201 yards or fewer away from the milestone with two weeks to play. Last season, 23 backs topped a grand. ... 14 receivers have surpassed 1,000 yards, and nine more are 100 yards or fewer closer. In 2006, 19 players reached that plateau. Does anyone else see a trend here this season?
Fantasy fodder: Most fantasy football participants load up on running backs early in their drafts. That strategy was not as sound this season as in seasons past. Of the top 11 scorers among non-kickers, five are wide receivers, including Nos. 1, 4 and 5 (Randy Moss, Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards).
Pro Bowl picks
The annual announcement of Pro Bowl selections serves as a good reminder of the role politics plays in that process.
Fan voting is equally weighted with coaches'and players' voting. So while the NFL likes to play up the fact that fans have a say in the process, the reality is coaches and peers have twice as much say.
Some interesting stats' from Tuesday's rosters for the Feb. 10 game:
The Dallas Cowboys, who have the NFL's second-best record (12-2) had 11 players selected. The 14-0 New England Patriots and the AFC West San Diego Chargers (9-5) had eight apiece.
However, the Indianapolis Colts (12-2), had just five players picked, while the Green Bay Packers, also 12-2, had four selections.
Contrast that with the Minnesota Vikings, who had seven players picked despite an 8-6 record and a questionable shot at making the playoffs.
At the other end of the scale, neither the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Bucs nor the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4), the wild-card team no one wants to face, had anyone selected.
Another oddity: the Chicago Bears, last in the NFC North, had four players picked.
Washington Redskins safety Sean Taylor, who died in late November after being shot during a robbery attempt at his Miami-area house, was voted to start at safety for the NFC. Taylor led the NFC in interceptions at the time of his death.
Fan voting is equally weighted with coaches'and players' voting. So while the NFL likes to play up the fact that fans have a say in the process, the reality is coaches and peers have twice as much say.
Some interesting stats' from Tuesday's rosters for the Feb. 10 game:
The Dallas Cowboys, who have the NFL's second-best record (12-2) had 11 players selected. The 14-0 New England Patriots and the AFC West San Diego Chargers (9-5) had eight apiece.
However, the Indianapolis Colts (12-2), had just five players picked, while the Green Bay Packers, also 12-2, had four selections.
Contrast that with the Minnesota Vikings, who had seven players picked despite an 8-6 record and a questionable shot at making the playoffs.
At the other end of the scale, neither the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Bucs nor the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4), the wild-card team no one wants to face, had anyone selected.
Another oddity: the Chicago Bears, last in the NFC North, had four players picked.
Washington Redskins safety Sean Taylor, who died in late November after being shot during a robbery attempt at his Miami-area house, was voted to start at safety for the NFC. Taylor led the NFC in interceptions at the time of his death.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
NFL Week 15
The Christmas rush and a final project for school have hit this week, so it's an abbreviated (and nearly tardy) NFL preview. Look for more frequent postings this week.
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Jaguars (9-4) at Steelers (9-4): Two tough, physical teams. Jacksonville will be without DT Marcus Stroud and MLB Mike Peterson, so look for Pittsburgh to run wild at home.
Bills (7-6) at Browns (7-6): Raise your hand if you saw this coming at the start of the season. This amounts to an elimination game for a wild-card spot in the AFC. The Browns' offense is impressive, but they'll have to figure out a way to contain Buffalo's rookie-led running attach.
GAMES OF THE WEAK:
Too many to mention. At one point this week, there were 10 games of points spreads of seven or more points. The league doesn't have parity, it has a lot of terrible teams this season.
UPSET OF THE WEEK:
Titans (7-6) at Chiefs (4-9): Kansas City can't keep losing at home, can it? Tennessee's injuries scare me, and I think the Chiefs are going to pound out a conservative victory and deal the Titans' playoff hopes a blow.
Season record on upset picks: 7-7
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Jaguars (9-4) at Steelers (9-4): Two tough, physical teams. Jacksonville will be without DT Marcus Stroud and MLB Mike Peterson, so look for Pittsburgh to run wild at home.
Bills (7-6) at Browns (7-6): Raise your hand if you saw this coming at the start of the season. This amounts to an elimination game for a wild-card spot in the AFC. The Browns' offense is impressive, but they'll have to figure out a way to contain Buffalo's rookie-led running attach.
GAMES OF THE WEAK:
Too many to mention. At one point this week, there were 10 games of points spreads of seven or more points. The league doesn't have parity, it has a lot of terrible teams this season.
UPSET OF THE WEEK:
Titans (7-6) at Chiefs (4-9): Kansas City can't keep losing at home, can it? Tennessee's injuries scare me, and I think the Chiefs are going to pound out a conservative victory and deal the Titans' playoff hopes a blow.
Season record on upset picks: 7-7
Monday, December 03, 2007
NFL rewind
Thanks to a friend's generosity, I was able to watch every exciting play from every NFL game on Sunday. Or at least it seemed that way.
I was introduced to NFL Sunday Ticket's Red Zone Channel which updates every game in progress continuously. Much has been made of the eight-game "mix" that Sunday Ticket offers, but RZC is a far, far superior product because you get every highlight as it happens or shortly thereafter for hour upon hour. It's a beautiful thing. ...
What was Saints coach Sean Peyton thinking, calling a double-reverse late in the eventual loss to the Bucs? New Orleans held a 23-20 lead late in the fourth quarter, but Reggie Bush's fumbled exchange gave Tampa Bay the ball and eventually the game. The Bucs, by the way, are for real. They're physical, and Coach Jon Gruden game-planned masterfully for QB Luke McCown, who subbed for the ailing Jeff Garcia. ... The Saints' season is probably done. ...
What was Redskins coach Joe Gibbs thinking? His second time-out call to ice Bills kicker Rian Lindell with seconds left resulted in an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that all but ensured Buffalo would get the winning points on Lindell's field-goal attempt. Gibbs is a Hall of Famer, and his place in the game is secure, but this is the latest game management blunder in a season full of them. Yes, Washington has melted down in the second half numerous times this season, but many of its miscues are inexcusable, particularly for someone with Gibbs' resume. ...
It's time for the NFL, the richest U.S. sports league, to hire full-time officials. Not only are the officials missing calls, but even with instant replay, it certainly seems as if many are going uncorrected. Case in point, Cleveland's Hail Mary pass to Kellen Winslow on Sunday. After a fantastic catch on the final play, Winslow was forced out of the end zone yet that wasn't called, costing the Browns the game. Perhaps it's the stress of working during the week, then working all weekend, that's getting to the officials. Whatever the reason, it's a shame the officiating is sinking in a league with abundant resources to do something about it. ...
If you turn the ball over, you will lose. Turnovers again derailed the Eagles, they put the Browns down two scores early, the Packers down three scores early, they sank the Broncos' comeback hopes, and they left the 49ers with no chance to win.
I was introduced to NFL Sunday Ticket's Red Zone Channel which updates every game in progress continuously. Much has been made of the eight-game "mix" that Sunday Ticket offers, but RZC is a far, far superior product because you get every highlight as it happens or shortly thereafter for hour upon hour. It's a beautiful thing. ...
What was Saints coach Sean Peyton thinking, calling a double-reverse late in the eventual loss to the Bucs? New Orleans held a 23-20 lead late in the fourth quarter, but Reggie Bush's fumbled exchange gave Tampa Bay the ball and eventually the game. The Bucs, by the way, are for real. They're physical, and Coach Jon Gruden game-planned masterfully for QB Luke McCown, who subbed for the ailing Jeff Garcia. ... The Saints' season is probably done. ...
What was Redskins coach Joe Gibbs thinking? His second time-out call to ice Bills kicker Rian Lindell with seconds left resulted in an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that all but ensured Buffalo would get the winning points on Lindell's field-goal attempt. Gibbs is a Hall of Famer, and his place in the game is secure, but this is the latest game management blunder in a season full of them. Yes, Washington has melted down in the second half numerous times this season, but many of its miscues are inexcusable, particularly for someone with Gibbs' resume. ...
It's time for the NFL, the richest U.S. sports league, to hire full-time officials. Not only are the officials missing calls, but even with instant replay, it certainly seems as if many are going uncorrected. Case in point, Cleveland's Hail Mary pass to Kellen Winslow on Sunday. After a fantastic catch on the final play, Winslow was forced out of the end zone yet that wasn't called, costing the Browns the game. Perhaps it's the stress of working during the week, then working all weekend, that's getting to the officials. Whatever the reason, it's a shame the officiating is sinking in a league with abundant resources to do something about it. ...
If you turn the ball over, you will lose. Turnovers again derailed the Eagles, they put the Browns down two scores early, the Packers down three scores early, they sank the Broncos' comeback hopes, and they left the 49ers with no chance to win.
Saturday, December 01, 2007
NFL Week 13 preview
What does the NFL season's final month hold? Will a team overcome a shaky first two-thirds of the season and rally for a playoff spot? Will a team that has started strong limp to the finish?
Here are some predictions of teams that could make a run and others that could fall flat and how that pertains to this week's games.
Moving up in the NFC
Philadelphia (5-6) - The Eagles' aggressive approach nearly knocked off the Patriots, and the guess here is they will continue that approach against Seattle on Sunday.
Chicago (5-6) - The Bears have to rely on Rex Grossman because RB Cedric Benson is injured. Is Chicago doomed? Maybe not. The Bears' pass rush is outstanding, they win games in the fourth quarter and they're not making the mistakes they made earlier in the season.
Moving down in the NFC
Detroit (6-5) - The Lions have lost three in a row, and the Vikings might well make that four on Sunday. Detroit can't run the ball, can't protect QB Jon Kitna and can't defend the pass. It won earlier in the season by dominating the turnover battle. That can't continue.
New York Giants (7-4) - Yup, the annual implosion is well underway, and injuries to their running backs and defense won't help. If the Giants' pass rush lets up at all, their secondary will be exposed. A loss to the Bears on Sunday would dent the Giants' attitude further and add to the heat on QB Eli Manning.
Moving up in the AFC
San Diego (6-5) - Yes, the Chargers have an inside track at winning the West, but at some point they have to figure out that getting the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson more is their wisest strategy. Two reasons for optimism - the defense has regained its teeth and should dominate a banged up Chiefs team, and WR Chris Chambers is beginning to make an impact on the offense.
Cleveland (7-4) - The Browns boast an explosive offense and a defense that is in the top-10 in takeaways. They're for real as a wild-card team, and if the Steelers stumble again (and they have the Patriots on deck), the Browns will be in the thick of the North title race.
Moving down in the AFC
Tennessee (6-5) - The Titans' defense has gone from dominating to sub-par in three weeks. Their ability to run the ball has seemingly vanished. And their final four games include matchups against the Chargers, Colts and Chiefs.
Denver (5-6) - The Broncos' loss at Chicago last Sunday was the type that can demoralize a team, particularly one that has been as inconsistent this season as Denver has. Three of their final five games are within the division, and the other two games appear winnable, but their inability to stop the run could be a problem vs. all five foes.
Game of the Week
Jacksonville (8-3) at Indianapolis (9-2) - Playing at home and having an 11-day since their last game favors the Colts, who must set the tone early. If the game turns into a slowed-down slugfest, the Jaguars will have a good chance of grabbing a share of the AFC South lead.
Game of the Weak:
N.Y. Jets (2-9) at Miami (0-11) - Is this the week the Dolphins finally win? Both teams are decimated by injuries, but Miami more so. They're on their third quarterback of the season, fourth running back and have been missing MLB Zach Thomas because of concussion-related headaches. Still, this is probably the Fins' best chance to win this season because the Jets are equally inept on offense and defense, ranking 30th in the league in both.
Upset Special, Part II: Yes, the elements were horrible on Monday night, but the Steelers nearly lost to a Miami team they have three times more talent than. Cincinnati is playing better, particularly on offense. I think the Bengals will win a shootout at Pittsburgh.
Season upset record: 7-5
Here are some predictions of teams that could make a run and others that could fall flat and how that pertains to this week's games.
Moving up in the NFC
Philadelphia (5-6) - The Eagles' aggressive approach nearly knocked off the Patriots, and the guess here is they will continue that approach against Seattle on Sunday.
Chicago (5-6) - The Bears have to rely on Rex Grossman because RB Cedric Benson is injured. Is Chicago doomed? Maybe not. The Bears' pass rush is outstanding, they win games in the fourth quarter and they're not making the mistakes they made earlier in the season.
Moving down in the NFC
Detroit (6-5) - The Lions have lost three in a row, and the Vikings might well make that four on Sunday. Detroit can't run the ball, can't protect QB Jon Kitna and can't defend the pass. It won earlier in the season by dominating the turnover battle. That can't continue.
New York Giants (7-4) - Yup, the annual implosion is well underway, and injuries to their running backs and defense won't help. If the Giants' pass rush lets up at all, their secondary will be exposed. A loss to the Bears on Sunday would dent the Giants' attitude further and add to the heat on QB Eli Manning.
Moving up in the AFC
San Diego (6-5) - Yes, the Chargers have an inside track at winning the West, but at some point they have to figure out that getting the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson more is their wisest strategy. Two reasons for optimism - the defense has regained its teeth and should dominate a banged up Chiefs team, and WR Chris Chambers is beginning to make an impact on the offense.
Cleveland (7-4) - The Browns boast an explosive offense and a defense that is in the top-10 in takeaways. They're for real as a wild-card team, and if the Steelers stumble again (and they have the Patriots on deck), the Browns will be in the thick of the North title race.
Moving down in the AFC
Tennessee (6-5) - The Titans' defense has gone from dominating to sub-par in three weeks. Their ability to run the ball has seemingly vanished. And their final four games include matchups against the Chargers, Colts and Chiefs.
Denver (5-6) - The Broncos' loss at Chicago last Sunday was the type that can demoralize a team, particularly one that has been as inconsistent this season as Denver has. Three of their final five games are within the division, and the other two games appear winnable, but their inability to stop the run could be a problem vs. all five foes.
Game of the Week
Jacksonville (8-3) at Indianapolis (9-2) - Playing at home and having an 11-day since their last game favors the Colts, who must set the tone early. If the game turns into a slowed-down slugfest, the Jaguars will have a good chance of grabbing a share of the AFC South lead.
Game of the Weak:
N.Y. Jets (2-9) at Miami (0-11) - Is this the week the Dolphins finally win? Both teams are decimated by injuries, but Miami more so. They're on their third quarterback of the season, fourth running back and have been missing MLB Zach Thomas because of concussion-related headaches. Still, this is probably the Fins' best chance to win this season because the Jets are equally inept on offense and defense, ranking 30th in the league in both.
Upset Special, Part II: Yes, the elements were horrible on Monday night, but the Steelers nearly lost to a Miami team they have three times more talent than. Cincinnati is playing better, particularly on offense. I think the Bengals will win a shootout at Pittsburgh.
Season upset record: 7-5
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
A nightmare season
Can it get any worse for the NFL?
Tuesday's death of Redskins safety Sean Taylor, a 2006 Pro Bowl selection, is another low point in a season full of them. While many of the details of the shooting that ultimately cost Taylor his life have yet to come to light, what has been reported is scary. Little more than a week ago, Taylor's home was burglarized and a knife was left, reportedly on Taylor's pillow, by the robber.
Taylor is the fourth active NFL player to die in 2007.
It started Jan. 1 with Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams being shot to death in a limo just hours after Denver's season-ending loss on New Year's Eve. Broncos teammate Damien Nash collapsed and died after a charity basketball game a few months later. And during the summer, Patriots defensive lineman Marquis Hill drowned.
The league's image also has taken a beating thanks to the Michael Vick dog-fighting case, the Patriots' "spy-gate" revelation and the growing chorus of former players coming forward with major health problems and decrying a lack of support from the league and its players union.
While those stories are bad news, they pale in comparison to the deaths of four young men, all aged 24, with lives full of promise ahead of them.
Tuesday's death of Redskins safety Sean Taylor, a 2006 Pro Bowl selection, is another low point in a season full of them. While many of the details of the shooting that ultimately cost Taylor his life have yet to come to light, what has been reported is scary. Little more than a week ago, Taylor's home was burglarized and a knife was left, reportedly on Taylor's pillow, by the robber.
Taylor is the fourth active NFL player to die in 2007.
It started Jan. 1 with Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams being shot to death in a limo just hours after Denver's season-ending loss on New Year's Eve. Broncos teammate Damien Nash collapsed and died after a charity basketball game a few months later. And during the summer, Patriots defensive lineman Marquis Hill drowned.
The league's image also has taken a beating thanks to the Michael Vick dog-fighting case, the Patriots' "spy-gate" revelation and the growing chorus of former players coming forward with major health problems and decrying a lack of support from the league and its players union.
While those stories are bad news, they pale in comparison to the deaths of four young men, all aged 24, with lives full of promise ahead of them.
Friday, November 16, 2007
NFL Week 11 preview
There are a number of intraconference games this weekend that could have a bearing on the playoff picture. I will highlight these by conference.
GAME OF THE WEEK:
Washington (5-4) at Dallas (8-1): The Redskins can help their cause with a victory, but it won't be easy against a Cowboys team that has the second-rated offense and the seventh-rated defense in the NFL. Washington must get its ground game (8th in the NFL) going to control the clock and keep Dallas' high-powered offense off the field. Both teams are stout vs. the run (Dallas allows 86.8 yards per game, while Washington gives up 99.9 ypg). Both teams are much more susceptible to the pass, which gives the Cowboys a distinct advantage. Not having CB Carlos Rodgers and S Sean Taylor will hurt Washington.
GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
NFC
New York (6-3) at Detroit (6-3): A collision of second-place teams coming off losses, both of which would be wild-card teams if the playoffs started today. The Giants must protect the ball - the Lions lead the league in takeaways despite having the 26th-ranked defense. The Giants lead the league in sacks and are in the top ten in pass and run defense. That's not good news for a Lions offense that is third worst in rushing the ball and has allowed the most sacks in the league.
Chicago (4-5) at Seattle (5-4): This is a game the Bears need if they want a shot at returning to the playoffs. The West-leading Seahawks likely will come out throwing, which plays to the Bears' strength on defense. These are not your mother's Monsters of the Midway, however. The Bears' defense is not even in the top 20 this season.
Carolina (4-5) at Green Bay (8-1): Carolina, which is one game out of first in the South despite its record, has not generated much of a passing game due to injuries at quarterback, but Green Bay has been solid vs. the run (allowing fewer than 93 yards per game). Can the Panthers' slow Brett Favre and his fleet of young receivers enough to keep it close?
AFC
Cleveland (5-4) at Baltimore (4-5): If the current Browns win, it's a season sweep for them over the former Browns. After watching the way Pittsburgh threw the ball all over the Ravens two weeks ago, one has to like Cleveland's chances. Running the ball generally has not been a wise choice vs. the Ravens this season (73.7 ypg). The Ravens' offense is in the hands of Kyle Boller, and they must improve their scoring efficiency (they've got the fourth-fewest points in the league). They'll get opportunities vs. the leaky Browns defense.
San Diego (5-4) at Jacksonville (6-3): A wise person told me this about the Chargers - they had six picks off Peyton Manning, had two return touchdowns and benefited from two missed FGs by a likely Hall of Famer ... and still were lucky to beat the Colts last week. This could be a good game for Bolts QB Philip Rivers to get on track because Jacksonville struggles at times on pass defense. The Jags get QB David Garrard back but are missing DT Marcus Stroud, who is suspended. Jacksonville has the league's No. 3 rushing offense (142 ypg).
Kansas City (4-5) at Indianapolis (7-2): The Chiefs turn over the QB reins to Brodie Croyle, but he'll have to make due without RB Larry Johnson. The Colts return home with a two-game losing streak and without Pro Bowl DE Dwight Freeney, who is out for the season because of a foot injury. If the Colts get TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison back from injury, they'll exploit the Chiefs secondary.
GAME OF THE WEAK
St. Louis (1-8) at San Francisco (2-7): Remember back when this was one of the NFL's best rivalries? Both teams have been decimated by injuries, but the Rams are getting healthier at the skill positions.
UPSET SPECIAL
Tennessee (6-3) at Denver (4-5): The Broncos are at home and are favored, but it's tough to see them running on the Titans or containing Vince Young, who showed signs of life last week.
Season record in upset picks: 7-3
GAME OF THE WEEK:
Washington (5-4) at Dallas (8-1): The Redskins can help their cause with a victory, but it won't be easy against a Cowboys team that has the second-rated offense and the seventh-rated defense in the NFL. Washington must get its ground game (8th in the NFL) going to control the clock and keep Dallas' high-powered offense off the field. Both teams are stout vs. the run (Dallas allows 86.8 yards per game, while Washington gives up 99.9 ypg). Both teams are much more susceptible to the pass, which gives the Cowboys a distinct advantage. Not having CB Carlos Rodgers and S Sean Taylor will hurt Washington.
GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
NFC
New York (6-3) at Detroit (6-3): A collision of second-place teams coming off losses, both of which would be wild-card teams if the playoffs started today. The Giants must protect the ball - the Lions lead the league in takeaways despite having the 26th-ranked defense. The Giants lead the league in sacks and are in the top ten in pass and run defense. That's not good news for a Lions offense that is third worst in rushing the ball and has allowed the most sacks in the league.
Chicago (4-5) at Seattle (5-4): This is a game the Bears need if they want a shot at returning to the playoffs. The West-leading Seahawks likely will come out throwing, which plays to the Bears' strength on defense. These are not your mother's Monsters of the Midway, however. The Bears' defense is not even in the top 20 this season.
Carolina (4-5) at Green Bay (8-1): Carolina, which is one game out of first in the South despite its record, has not generated much of a passing game due to injuries at quarterback, but Green Bay has been solid vs. the run (allowing fewer than 93 yards per game). Can the Panthers' slow Brett Favre and his fleet of young receivers enough to keep it close?
AFC
Cleveland (5-4) at Baltimore (4-5): If the current Browns win, it's a season sweep for them over the former Browns. After watching the way Pittsburgh threw the ball all over the Ravens two weeks ago, one has to like Cleveland's chances. Running the ball generally has not been a wise choice vs. the Ravens this season (73.7 ypg). The Ravens' offense is in the hands of Kyle Boller, and they must improve their scoring efficiency (they've got the fourth-fewest points in the league). They'll get opportunities vs. the leaky Browns defense.
San Diego (5-4) at Jacksonville (6-3): A wise person told me this about the Chargers - they had six picks off Peyton Manning, had two return touchdowns and benefited from two missed FGs by a likely Hall of Famer ... and still were lucky to beat the Colts last week. This could be a good game for Bolts QB Philip Rivers to get on track because Jacksonville struggles at times on pass defense. The Jags get QB David Garrard back but are missing DT Marcus Stroud, who is suspended. Jacksonville has the league's No. 3 rushing offense (142 ypg).
Kansas City (4-5) at Indianapolis (7-2): The Chiefs turn over the QB reins to Brodie Croyle, but he'll have to make due without RB Larry Johnson. The Colts return home with a two-game losing streak and without Pro Bowl DE Dwight Freeney, who is out for the season because of a foot injury. If the Colts get TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison back from injury, they'll exploit the Chiefs secondary.
GAME OF THE WEAK
St. Louis (1-8) at San Francisco (2-7): Remember back when this was one of the NFL's best rivalries? Both teams have been decimated by injuries, but the Rams are getting healthier at the skill positions.
UPSET SPECIAL
Tennessee (6-3) at Denver (4-5): The Broncos are at home and are favored, but it's tough to see them running on the Titans or containing Vince Young, who showed signs of life last week.
Season record in upset picks: 7-3
Friday, November 09, 2007
NFL Week 10 preview
We'll learn more about how several divisions could shake out this weekend because there are several intradivisional matchups highlighting the schedule.
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Dallas (7-1) at New York Giants (6-2): Can the Giants run their winning streak to seven and avenge a season-opening loss? Their defense is vastly improved, particularly against the pass, since the Cowboys beat them. The combination of a hostile environment, possible adverse weather and the Giant's ferocious pass rush will pose a stiff test for QB Tony Romo. However, Dallas' defense also is improving, and QB Eli Manning must avoid mistakes as well because the Cowboys can strike quickly.
Jacksonville (5-3) at Tennessee (6-2): This should be the week's most punishing game, with each team trying to establish the run to overcome awful passing games. The Titans have the top run defense in the NFL and some momentum. The Jaguars, who already have lost to the Titans this season, badly need a victory here.
GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
Cleveland (5-3) at Pittsburgh (6-2): Think this is a black-and-blue game? Think again. These teams both have top-10 offenses. Both can run or pass, and both have physical offensive lines. The difference? The Steelers have the league's top-ranked defense, while the Browns' is ranked 31st.
Indianapolis (7-1) at San Diego (4-4): How will the Colts bounce back from their loss to the Patriots? The guess here is by running the ball because WR Anthony Gonzalez is out, and TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison are questionable. The Colts will have to slow RB LaDainian Tomlinson. A key matchup will be how San Diego protects QB Philip Rivers, who has been rattled more this season, against Indy's speedy defensive line.
Denver (3-5) at Kansas City (4-4): The Broncos' problem isn't picking up yards (they're 12th in the NFL), but scoring (they're 28th). The Chiefs have allowed the eighth-fewest points, have a potent pass rush and play the run well. KC can really helps its cause with a win. Denver, which has a banged up QB in Jay Cutler, must win or its season could go down the drain in a hurry.
GAME OF THE WEAK:
Buffalo (4-4) at Miami (0-8): The Bills have the 31st-ranked offense and the 29th-rated defense yet they're .500. Welcome to the awful AFC East.
UPSET SPECIAL
Atlanta, which has shown a pulse recently, knocks off Carolina, which has struggled at home and been unable to get the ball in the hands of its best player, WR Steve Smith.
Year-to-date record on upsets: 6-3
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Dallas (7-1) at New York Giants (6-2): Can the Giants run their winning streak to seven and avenge a season-opening loss? Their defense is vastly improved, particularly against the pass, since the Cowboys beat them. The combination of a hostile environment, possible adverse weather and the Giant's ferocious pass rush will pose a stiff test for QB Tony Romo. However, Dallas' defense also is improving, and QB Eli Manning must avoid mistakes as well because the Cowboys can strike quickly.
Jacksonville (5-3) at Tennessee (6-2): This should be the week's most punishing game, with each team trying to establish the run to overcome awful passing games. The Titans have the top run defense in the NFL and some momentum. The Jaguars, who already have lost to the Titans this season, badly need a victory here.
GAMES WORTH A PEEK:
Cleveland (5-3) at Pittsburgh (6-2): Think this is a black-and-blue game? Think again. These teams both have top-10 offenses. Both can run or pass, and both have physical offensive lines. The difference? The Steelers have the league's top-ranked defense, while the Browns' is ranked 31st.
Indianapolis (7-1) at San Diego (4-4): How will the Colts bounce back from their loss to the Patriots? The guess here is by running the ball because WR Anthony Gonzalez is out, and TE Dallas Clark and WR Marvin Harrison are questionable. The Colts will have to slow RB LaDainian Tomlinson. A key matchup will be how San Diego protects QB Philip Rivers, who has been rattled more this season, against Indy's speedy defensive line.
Denver (3-5) at Kansas City (4-4): The Broncos' problem isn't picking up yards (they're 12th in the NFL), but scoring (they're 28th). The Chiefs have allowed the eighth-fewest points, have a potent pass rush and play the run well. KC can really helps its cause with a win. Denver, which has a banged up QB in Jay Cutler, must win or its season could go down the drain in a hurry.
GAME OF THE WEAK:
Buffalo (4-4) at Miami (0-8): The Bills have the 31st-ranked offense and the 29th-rated defense yet they're .500. Welcome to the awful AFC East.
UPSET SPECIAL
Atlanta, which has shown a pulse recently, knocks off Carolina, which has struggled at home and been unable to get the ball in the hands of its best player, WR Steve Smith.
Year-to-date record on upsets: 6-3
Friday, November 02, 2007
NFL Week 9 preview
I'd like to start by discussing a game we've been waiting all season for - Falcons vs. 49ers, a clash of two teams with a combined 3-11 record.
OK, kidding there.
When it comes to the NFL this week, there is one game front and center for everyone - the clash of undefeateds - Patriots at Colts. These are the two best teams in the league at this point and owners of two of the past three championships.
The game has been analyzed to death already this week, so I want to point out a few trends I've spotted that might play a role in the outcome. Many believe the Patriots will win, but I'm not so sure.
While the Patriots have been blowing teams out week-in, week-out this season, it's important to note the quality of their competition. The combined record of their foes is 24-34, though they did beat 6-1 Dallas soundly on the road. The Colts, meanwhile, have beaten teams with a combined mark of 27-24 and are coming off road victories over 5-2 Jacksonville and 4-3 Carolina.
The physical factor: For some reason, the Colts are perceived as a "soft" team in some corners. It might have something to do with the calm demeanor of Coach Tony Dungy or their inability to stop the run LAST season, but the aforementioned road victories came against two of the most physical teams in the league. And safety Bob Sanders says new cornerbacks Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson have added a physical element to the secondary.
No one disputes the Patriots' toughness, but receivers Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth have not faced a lot of physical opposition thus far. And Moss, if you may recall, has a long history of pouting when things haven't gone his way. A few hard hits or missed connections might knock him off his game.
Both teams have exceptional offensive lines, probably the most underrated units on each team. Which team can generate the better pass rush will have a huge say in which team wins. The Patriots will send an array of blitzes at Peyton Manning, but that plays to his strengths. I look for the Colts to give Tom Brady a steady diet of DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
And what of the running games? If Lawrence Maroney is healthy, it's a big boost for the Patriots. I think Coach Bill Belichick is going to try to run the ball on the Colts and keep Manning off the field. However, Joseph Addai of the Colts is at least as impressive and he is another key player in this matchup. If he finds room to run, the Colts can keep the Patriots defense a bit off balance.
Three other things to watch for:
The Patriots start fast, and the Colts have started slow this season. However, the Patriots took a 21-3 lead in the AFC Championship Game last season, but the Colts rallied to win.
The Colts are playing at home.
The Colts have the best clutch kicker in the game - Adam Vinitieri, a four-time Super Bowl winner, including three with the Patriots.
My upset special is the Colts beating the Patriots, who are favored by five points.
Upset season record: 6-2
Last week's schedule of games didn't thrill me. This week, however, has an exceptional lineup, so there are several Games Worth a Peak.
Green Bay (6-1) at Kansas City (4-3): Two surprise division leaders meet, and both have teams breathing right down their necks in their divisions. What does QB Brett Favre do for an encore after Monday's heroics? He'll have to be sharp against the Chiefs, who likely will try to control the clock by running Larry Johnson. This could be a real defensive slugfest with one mistake making the difference. Another factor: the Chiefs are rested and the Packers played on the road on Monday night.
Two interconference South battles:
Jacksonville (5-2) at New Orleans (3-4): The Saints ain't dead yet. Winners of three in a row, they're going to have a tough time making it four against the Jaguars and their stout defense. Jacksonville, meanwhile, will rely on its running game - headed by Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor - to try to keep QB Drew Brees and RB Reggie Bush off the field as much as possible.
Carolina (4-3) at Tennessee (5-2): The Panthers have relied on the run since QB Jake Delhomme was lost for the season. Unfortunately for them, the Titans have the league's top run defense. Titans QB Vince Young has appeared out of sorts, and the Panthers have the speed on defense to contain him. This will be a physical, low-scoring game unless Carolina can somehow get WR Steve Smith involved.
Trivia Time: What AFL team did both John Brodie and Mike Ditka sign with (though never play for) in 1966?
PRIME TIME TREATS:
Both night games this week offer intense, intradivisional rivalries.
Sunday - Dallas (6-1) at Philadelphia (3-4): The Cowboys are rested, and a road victory here would keep them in the NFC East driver's seat. Dallas will need to run the ball some on Philadelphia's improved run defense. The Cowboys shaky secondary presents an opportunity for QB Donovan McNabb. The Eagles are in danger of irrelevance in the division if they lose another home divisional game.
Monday - Baltimore (4-3) at Pittsburgh (5-2): The Ravens don't appear to be the team many (including me) thought they would be - road losses to improving Cleveland and Buffalo demonstrate that. Pittsburgh has the necessary run/pass balance on offense to keep the Ravens honest. The Ravens offense again is struggling, so their defense is going to have to pressure QB Ben Roethlisberger and hope for turnovers.
GAMES OF THE WEAK:
San Francisco (2-5) at Atlanta (1-6): What do you get when you add two teams with zero starting-caliber quarterbacks? This.
Houston (3-5) at Oakland (2-5): This is a good lesson about why you can't get too excited about teams that start fast. These were division leaders five weeks ago.
Trivia answer: The Houston Oilers
OK, kidding there.
When it comes to the NFL this week, there is one game front and center for everyone - the clash of undefeateds - Patriots at Colts. These are the two best teams in the league at this point and owners of two of the past three championships.
The game has been analyzed to death already this week, so I want to point out a few trends I've spotted that might play a role in the outcome. Many believe the Patriots will win, but I'm not so sure.
While the Patriots have been blowing teams out week-in, week-out this season, it's important to note the quality of their competition. The combined record of their foes is 24-34, though they did beat 6-1 Dallas soundly on the road. The Colts, meanwhile, have beaten teams with a combined mark of 27-24 and are coming off road victories over 5-2 Jacksonville and 4-3 Carolina.
The physical factor: For some reason, the Colts are perceived as a "soft" team in some corners. It might have something to do with the calm demeanor of Coach Tony Dungy or their inability to stop the run LAST season, but the aforementioned road victories came against two of the most physical teams in the league. And safety Bob Sanders says new cornerbacks Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson have added a physical element to the secondary.
No one disputes the Patriots' toughness, but receivers Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth have not faced a lot of physical opposition thus far. And Moss, if you may recall, has a long history of pouting when things haven't gone his way. A few hard hits or missed connections might knock him off his game.
Both teams have exceptional offensive lines, probably the most underrated units on each team. Which team can generate the better pass rush will have a huge say in which team wins. The Patriots will send an array of blitzes at Peyton Manning, but that plays to his strengths. I look for the Colts to give Tom Brady a steady diet of DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
And what of the running games? If Lawrence Maroney is healthy, it's a big boost for the Patriots. I think Coach Bill Belichick is going to try to run the ball on the Colts and keep Manning off the field. However, Joseph Addai of the Colts is at least as impressive and he is another key player in this matchup. If he finds room to run, the Colts can keep the Patriots defense a bit off balance.
Three other things to watch for:
The Patriots start fast, and the Colts have started slow this season. However, the Patriots took a 21-3 lead in the AFC Championship Game last season, but the Colts rallied to win.
The Colts are playing at home.
The Colts have the best clutch kicker in the game - Adam Vinitieri, a four-time Super Bowl winner, including three with the Patriots.
My upset special is the Colts beating the Patriots, who are favored by five points.
Upset season record: 6-2
Last week's schedule of games didn't thrill me. This week, however, has an exceptional lineup, so there are several Games Worth a Peak.
Green Bay (6-1) at Kansas City (4-3): Two surprise division leaders meet, and both have teams breathing right down their necks in their divisions. What does QB Brett Favre do for an encore after Monday's heroics? He'll have to be sharp against the Chiefs, who likely will try to control the clock by running Larry Johnson. This could be a real defensive slugfest with one mistake making the difference. Another factor: the Chiefs are rested and the Packers played on the road on Monday night.
Two interconference South battles:
Jacksonville (5-2) at New Orleans (3-4): The Saints ain't dead yet. Winners of three in a row, they're going to have a tough time making it four against the Jaguars and their stout defense. Jacksonville, meanwhile, will rely on its running game - headed by Maurice Drew-Jones and Fred Taylor - to try to keep QB Drew Brees and RB Reggie Bush off the field as much as possible.
Carolina (4-3) at Tennessee (5-2): The Panthers have relied on the run since QB Jake Delhomme was lost for the season. Unfortunately for them, the Titans have the league's top run defense. Titans QB Vince Young has appeared out of sorts, and the Panthers have the speed on defense to contain him. This will be a physical, low-scoring game unless Carolina can somehow get WR Steve Smith involved.
Trivia Time: What AFL team did both John Brodie and Mike Ditka sign with (though never play for) in 1966?
PRIME TIME TREATS:
Both night games this week offer intense, intradivisional rivalries.
Sunday - Dallas (6-1) at Philadelphia (3-4): The Cowboys are rested, and a road victory here would keep them in the NFC East driver's seat. Dallas will need to run the ball some on Philadelphia's improved run defense. The Cowboys shaky secondary presents an opportunity for QB Donovan McNabb. The Eagles are in danger of irrelevance in the division if they lose another home divisional game.
Monday - Baltimore (4-3) at Pittsburgh (5-2): The Ravens don't appear to be the team many (including me) thought they would be - road losses to improving Cleveland and Buffalo demonstrate that. Pittsburgh has the necessary run/pass balance on offense to keep the Ravens honest. The Ravens offense again is struggling, so their defense is going to have to pressure QB Ben Roethlisberger and hope for turnovers.
GAMES OF THE WEAK:
San Francisco (2-5) at Atlanta (1-6): What do you get when you add two teams with zero starting-caliber quarterbacks? This.
Houston (3-5) at Oakland (2-5): This is a good lesson about why you can't get too excited about teams that start fast. These were division leaders five weeks ago.
Trivia answer: The Houston Oilers
Monday, October 29, 2007
Monday Night, Week 8
My upset special this week is selected with both my heart and my head: The Packers will take down the Broncos in Denver for the first time ever.
Denver will not have an answer for Green Bay's defense, which will force plenty of turnovers. Working with a short field, I expect the Packers offense to mix in more running plays against the porous middle of the Broncos defense. The Broncos are quick on the outside and feature an excellent pair of cornerbacks, so Brett Favre will attack the heart of the Denver defense.
Season record in upset picks: 5-2
Coming later this week, a mid-season report and a closer look at the Super Bowl - Patriots vs. Colts.
Denver will not have an answer for Green Bay's defense, which will force plenty of turnovers. Working with a short field, I expect the Packers offense to mix in more running plays against the porous middle of the Broncos defense. The Broncos are quick on the outside and feature an excellent pair of cornerbacks, so Brett Favre will attack the heart of the Denver defense.
Season record in upset picks: 5-2
Coming later this week, a mid-season report and a closer look at the Super Bowl - Patriots vs. Colts.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
A bye week
What happened last week?
Well, I took a bye week! To make up for it, I will try to be more diligent this week.
One topic that has come up more and more this NFL season is the number of quarterback changes due to injury and poor play. What follows is a quick look, by division, at each team's quarterback picture six weeks into the season. (* indicates team has made a change)
NFC EAST
Dallas - Tony Romo has been excellent, with the exception of one game vs. Buffalo
NY Giants - Eli Manning is improving, particularly in his consistency
Philadelphia - Donovan McNabb appears slow, as if he's not fully recovered from knee surgery. But he is still an elite quarterback
Washington - Jason Campbell is improving and seems like he will give the Redskins very good quarterbacking for years to come
NFC NORTH
* Chicago - A mistake-prone Brian Griese has replaced a mistake-prone Rex Grossman
Detroit - Jon Kitna is taking a lot of hits, but he's also passing for a lot of yards for the surprising Lions
Green Bay - Brett Favre. Enough said.
* Minnesota - Tavaris Jackson-Kelly Holcombe-Tavaris Jackson. Not sure that it matters, and whoever stands under center has no one to pass to anyway.
NFC SOUTH
* Atlanta - Bryon Leftwich, who was cut by Jacksonville before the season, is replacing Joey Harrington, who was released by Miami after last season. Harrington replaced Michael Vick, who isn't even released to leave home
* Carolina - Vinny Testaverde has not cashed his most recent social security check because he replaced the injured David Carr, who replaced the injured Jake Delhomme
New Orleans - After a 0-4 start that included 1 TD pass and six picks, Saints fans probably were wishing Drew Brees had been replaced. Brees did show signs of life on Monday night as the Saints finally won.
Tampa Bay - Jeff Garcia has elevated the Bucs to playoff contender
NFC WEST
* Arizona - Tim Rattay has replaced the injured Kurt Warner, who replaced the injured Matt Leinart
* San Francisco - Trent Dilfer replaced the injured Alex Smith
Seattle - Matt Hasselbeck has been healthy, his receivers haven't been.
* St. Louis - Gus Frerotte has Rams fans wanting to bang their heads against an end zone wall after replacing the injured Marc Bulger
AFC EAST
* Buffalo - Trent Edwards replaced the injured JP Losman, and it appears the rookie is going to keep the job now even though Losman could play
* Miami - Cleo Lemon has replaced the concussed Trent Green for the winless Fins
New England - Tom Brady. Enough said.
NY Jets - Injury-prone Chad Pennington is the starter for now, but calls for Kellen Clemons are increasing
AFC NORTH
* Baltimore - Kyle Boller has replaced the injured Steve McNair. The two likely will alternate the rest of the season
Cincinnati - Carson Palmer is healthy again.
* Cleveland - Derek Anderson replaced Charlie Frye, who was so bad in Week 1 that he was traded. My question is what were Browns coaches watching during training camp?
Pittsburgh - Big Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, and the Steelers are rolling
AFC SOUTH
Houston - Think Atlanta wishes it hadn't traded Matt Schaub
Indianapolis - I think this Peyton Manning guy has a future in the league
Jacksonville - David Garrard IS an upgrade over Byron Leftwich. The Jags enjoy a big advantage in the turnover department
* Tennessee - Vince Young, who has a leg injury, might be replaced by Kerry Collins this week
AFC WEST
Denver - David Cutler has looked very uncomfortable in what could be a very long season in the Mile High City. At least the Rockies are in the Series
Kansas City - Damon Huard has held off Brodie Croyle. You're an NFL fanatic if you know what that means
* Oakland - Daunte Culpepper has replaced the injured Josh McCown, both of whom are keeping the seat warm for JaMarcus Russell
San Diego - Philip Rivers has looked a lot better once the Bolts started calling LaDainian Tomlinson's number more.
So 13 teams have different starting quarterbacks than they had at the start of the season, and there is the potential for a few more changes this week.
Well, I took a bye week! To make up for it, I will try to be more diligent this week.
One topic that has come up more and more this NFL season is the number of quarterback changes due to injury and poor play. What follows is a quick look, by division, at each team's quarterback picture six weeks into the season. (* indicates team has made a change)
NFC EAST
Dallas - Tony Romo has been excellent, with the exception of one game vs. Buffalo
NY Giants - Eli Manning is improving, particularly in his consistency
Philadelphia - Donovan McNabb appears slow, as if he's not fully recovered from knee surgery. But he is still an elite quarterback
Washington - Jason Campbell is improving and seems like he will give the Redskins very good quarterbacking for years to come
NFC NORTH
* Chicago - A mistake-prone Brian Griese has replaced a mistake-prone Rex Grossman
Detroit - Jon Kitna is taking a lot of hits, but he's also passing for a lot of yards for the surprising Lions
Green Bay - Brett Favre. Enough said.
* Minnesota - Tavaris Jackson-Kelly Holcombe-Tavaris Jackson. Not sure that it matters, and whoever stands under center has no one to pass to anyway.
NFC SOUTH
* Atlanta - Bryon Leftwich, who was cut by Jacksonville before the season, is replacing Joey Harrington, who was released by Miami after last season. Harrington replaced Michael Vick, who isn't even released to leave home
* Carolina - Vinny Testaverde has not cashed his most recent social security check because he replaced the injured David Carr, who replaced the injured Jake Delhomme
New Orleans - After a 0-4 start that included 1 TD pass and six picks, Saints fans probably were wishing Drew Brees had been replaced. Brees did show signs of life on Monday night as the Saints finally won.
Tampa Bay - Jeff Garcia has elevated the Bucs to playoff contender
NFC WEST
* Arizona - Tim Rattay has replaced the injured Kurt Warner, who replaced the injured Matt Leinart
* San Francisco - Trent Dilfer replaced the injured Alex Smith
Seattle - Matt Hasselbeck has been healthy, his receivers haven't been.
* St. Louis - Gus Frerotte has Rams fans wanting to bang their heads against an end zone wall after replacing the injured Marc Bulger
AFC EAST
* Buffalo - Trent Edwards replaced the injured JP Losman, and it appears the rookie is going to keep the job now even though Losman could play
* Miami - Cleo Lemon has replaced the concussed Trent Green for the winless Fins
New England - Tom Brady. Enough said.
NY Jets - Injury-prone Chad Pennington is the starter for now, but calls for Kellen Clemons are increasing
AFC NORTH
* Baltimore - Kyle Boller has replaced the injured Steve McNair. The two likely will alternate the rest of the season
Cincinnati - Carson Palmer is healthy again.
* Cleveland - Derek Anderson replaced Charlie Frye, who was so bad in Week 1 that he was traded. My question is what were Browns coaches watching during training camp?
Pittsburgh - Big Ben Roethlisberger is healthy, and the Steelers are rolling
AFC SOUTH
Houston - Think Atlanta wishes it hadn't traded Matt Schaub
Indianapolis - I think this Peyton Manning guy has a future in the league
Jacksonville - David Garrard IS an upgrade over Byron Leftwich. The Jags enjoy a big advantage in the turnover department
* Tennessee - Vince Young, who has a leg injury, might be replaced by Kerry Collins this week
AFC WEST
Denver - David Cutler has looked very uncomfortable in what could be a very long season in the Mile High City. At least the Rockies are in the Series
Kansas City - Damon Huard has held off Brodie Croyle. You're an NFL fanatic if you know what that means
* Oakland - Daunte Culpepper has replaced the injured Josh McCown, both of whom are keeping the seat warm for JaMarcus Russell
San Diego - Philip Rivers has looked a lot better once the Bolts started calling LaDainian Tomlinson's number more.
So 13 teams have different starting quarterbacks than they had at the start of the season, and there is the potential for a few more changes this week.
Friday, October 05, 2007
NFL Week 5
I like to think of the NFL season in terms of quarters, and this weekend we enter the second quarter of the season. So what does that mean? Adjustments.
There will be some teams who have gotten off to unexpected slow starts that begin to pull it together, while others continue their fade. And some of the fast-starters might be in for rude awakenings.
I believe this is a week we'll start to see that, and I will address that in selected games.
Remember, too, that the impact of injuries can't be overstated.
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Detroit (3-1) at Washington (2-1): It's tough for me to believe the Lions will win 12 games, which they're on pace to, or even the 10 that QB Jon Kitna predicted. Here's why - their defense has been terrible, which is masked by the amount of turnovers they're forcing. Their offense is explosive, but for a club that relies on the pass as much the Lions do, they must protect Kitna better - he's on pace to be sacked more than 80 times. The Redskins are rested after an early bye week, and I believe they will return to a ball-control-style of offense. And Washington's defense is showing some improvement. Factor in that the Redskins have the horses in the secondary to keep up with Detroit's passing game, and I see the Lions' bubble beginning to burst.
Tampa Bay (3-1) at Indianapolis (4-0): The Bucs certainly qualify as a surprise team. Their defense has been revitalized, and QB Jeff Garcia is playing nearly mistake-free football. However, losing RB Cadillac Williams for the season to injury is going to hurt because I believe the Colts can be run on. If this game turns into a shootout, Indy will expose Tampa's defense. And don't forget, Colts coach Tony Dungy knows Tampa's defense better than most of its players do. I would be surprised if this isn't close because Tampa appears better than most (including myself thought).
Seattle (3-1) at Pittsburgh (3-1): This will be a huge test for both of the Super Bowl 40 participants. Can the Seahawks win another big game on the road and stamp themselves as a Super Bowl contender? How do the Steelers respond after a disappointing road loss at Arizona? Expect a low-scoring, ground-based game because both teams have ferocious pass rushes.
Chicago (1-3) at Green Bay (4-0): Are the Packers for real despite having the league's worst ground game? Can the Bears overcome an array of injuries and an offense that appears completely out of sync? Answer to question No. 1 - yes, Green Bay's defense and special teams are excellent, and so far Brett Favre has been outstanding enough to compensate for a lack of a ground game. Chicago has looked horrible two weeks in a row, but this is a rivalry game, and the Bears' season is riding on it. If Chicago loses, it's four games out of first place and it has two division losses after only one all last season (to Green Bay). The Bears must blitz Favre silly and control the ball behind RB Cedric Benson or they're staring at 1-4.
GAMES OF THE WEAK (and some upsets):
Carolina (2-2) at New Orleans (0-3): Before the season I would have pegged this as one of the NFC's top games, but not now. The Saints have not been able to do much right offensively or defensively, but the most telling stat is they do not have a sack yet this season. But the Panthers are without QB Jake Delhomme, and backup David Carr looked awful last week against the Bucs. Somehow the Saints, who are coming off a bye, are favored, but they haven't proved they can stop anyone, so I predict Carolina will run the ball at will.
Arizona (2-2) at St. Louis (0-4): Both teams are banged up, but the difference is the Cardinals have an aggressive defense and RB Edgerrin James. Tough to see the Rams winning without RB Steven Jackson and QB Marc Bulger. Also tough to see Coach Scott Linehan lasting more than a few weeks as things continue to implode under the arch.
ANOTHER UPSET SPECIAL:
San Diego (1-3) at Denver (2-2): Two more teams I was high on at the beginning of the season, and I think the Chargers will pull it together if they start running LaDainian Tomlinson more. The Broncos offer the perfect team to do that against. I also think the Chargers' defense has far more ability than it's shown thus far. The Chargers get their season back on track.
Upset picks:
Carolina over New Orleans
San Diego over Denver
Season record on upset specials: 3-1
There will be some teams who have gotten off to unexpected slow starts that begin to pull it together, while others continue their fade. And some of the fast-starters might be in for rude awakenings.
I believe this is a week we'll start to see that, and I will address that in selected games.
Remember, too, that the impact of injuries can't be overstated.
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Detroit (3-1) at Washington (2-1): It's tough for me to believe the Lions will win 12 games, which they're on pace to, or even the 10 that QB Jon Kitna predicted. Here's why - their defense has been terrible, which is masked by the amount of turnovers they're forcing. Their offense is explosive, but for a club that relies on the pass as much the Lions do, they must protect Kitna better - he's on pace to be sacked more than 80 times. The Redskins are rested after an early bye week, and I believe they will return to a ball-control-style of offense. And Washington's defense is showing some improvement. Factor in that the Redskins have the horses in the secondary to keep up with Detroit's passing game, and I see the Lions' bubble beginning to burst.
Tampa Bay (3-1) at Indianapolis (4-0): The Bucs certainly qualify as a surprise team. Their defense has been revitalized, and QB Jeff Garcia is playing nearly mistake-free football. However, losing RB Cadillac Williams for the season to injury is going to hurt because I believe the Colts can be run on. If this game turns into a shootout, Indy will expose Tampa's defense. And don't forget, Colts coach Tony Dungy knows Tampa's defense better than most of its players do. I would be surprised if this isn't close because Tampa appears better than most (including myself thought).
Seattle (3-1) at Pittsburgh (3-1): This will be a huge test for both of the Super Bowl 40 participants. Can the Seahawks win another big game on the road and stamp themselves as a Super Bowl contender? How do the Steelers respond after a disappointing road loss at Arizona? Expect a low-scoring, ground-based game because both teams have ferocious pass rushes.
Chicago (1-3) at Green Bay (4-0): Are the Packers for real despite having the league's worst ground game? Can the Bears overcome an array of injuries and an offense that appears completely out of sync? Answer to question No. 1 - yes, Green Bay's defense and special teams are excellent, and so far Brett Favre has been outstanding enough to compensate for a lack of a ground game. Chicago has looked horrible two weeks in a row, but this is a rivalry game, and the Bears' season is riding on it. If Chicago loses, it's four games out of first place and it has two division losses after only one all last season (to Green Bay). The Bears must blitz Favre silly and control the ball behind RB Cedric Benson or they're staring at 1-4.
GAMES OF THE WEAK (and some upsets):
Carolina (2-2) at New Orleans (0-3): Before the season I would have pegged this as one of the NFC's top games, but not now. The Saints have not been able to do much right offensively or defensively, but the most telling stat is they do not have a sack yet this season. But the Panthers are without QB Jake Delhomme, and backup David Carr looked awful last week against the Bucs. Somehow the Saints, who are coming off a bye, are favored, but they haven't proved they can stop anyone, so I predict Carolina will run the ball at will.
Arizona (2-2) at St. Louis (0-4): Both teams are banged up, but the difference is the Cardinals have an aggressive defense and RB Edgerrin James. Tough to see the Rams winning without RB Steven Jackson and QB Marc Bulger. Also tough to see Coach Scott Linehan lasting more than a few weeks as things continue to implode under the arch.
ANOTHER UPSET SPECIAL:
San Diego (1-3) at Denver (2-2): Two more teams I was high on at the beginning of the season, and I think the Chargers will pull it together if they start running LaDainian Tomlinson more. The Broncos offer the perfect team to do that against. I also think the Chargers' defense has far more ability than it's shown thus far. The Chargers get their season back on track.
Upset picks:
Carolina over New Orleans
San Diego over Denver
Season record on upset specials: 3-1
Friday, September 28, 2007
NFL Week 4
Everywhere you look this weekend there are intriguing storylines in NFL games.
Start with the eight intradivision games:
In the AFC, the former Browns (Baltimore Ravens) play the current Browns, who have been sparked by a former Raven (RB Jamal Lewis). Got it? ... The Chiefs visit the Chargers in a battle of two disappointing teams seeking to avoid 1-3 starts in the West. ... And the banged-up Bills play host to a Jets team that can get itself back in the hunt in the East with a second consecutive East victory.
In the NFC, the Central team pair off. Brett Favre can set the all-time touchdown pass record in Minnesota, but more importantly, the Packers can improve to 4-0 with a victory over the Vikings. Meanwhile, the banged-up Bears (who might be without DL Tommie Harris, LB Lance Briggs and three-fourths of their starting secondary) turn to QB Brian Griese at Detroit, where the Lions can score points in bunches but also give them up in bunches. ... In the East, the Eagles and Giants are coming off their first victories, and both need one here to keep pace with the Cowboys. ... In the South and the West, first place is on the line when the Bucs visit the Panthers and the Seahawks pay a call on the 49ers.
ALL IN THE FAMILY
Pittsburgh (3-0) at Arizona (1-2): The Steelers pay a visit to the desert and renew acquaintances with the two assistants passed over for their head coaching vacancy in favor of Coach Mike Tomlin (Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm).
Houston (2-1) at Atlanta (0-3): The Matt Schaub Bowl. Think the Falcons regret trading the QB now?
THAT 70s SHOW (aka GAMES OF THE WEAK)
Turn back the clock three decades and you'd have two marquee matchups - the Raiders at the Dolphins and the Rams at the Cowboys. Instead you get the Games of the Weak.
Oakland (1-2) will start Daunte Culpepper at QB against one of his former teams, Miami (0-3). The Raiders have established a running game with LaMont Jordan, and RB Ronnie Brown showed signs of life for the Dolphins last week. Whomever gets the best of that battle against two decent defenses likely will lead his team to victory.
The beleagured Rams (0-3) will be without two of their top offensive linemen and RB Steven Jackson against a Cowboys team (3-0) that is clicking on all cylinders. Compounding things for St. Louis are QB Marc Bulger's broken ribs and the Rams defense's inability to stop anything. It won't be pretty.
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Denver (2-1) at Indianapolis (3-0): The Broncos have to run the ball well and control the clock to have a chance. Running might be a strategy the Colts want to adhere to this week - Denver's secondary is good, but the Broncos can't stop the run.
New England (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2): I think the Patriots will win, particularly if Bengals RB Rudi Johnson can't play, but this Monday night game will be a blast to watch because of all the points being scored. I expect to see at least 70.
UPSET SPECIAL:
Oakland over Miami. Yes, the Dolphins are favored, but I think the Raiders might be better than many (including yours truly) expected at the beginning of the season. Unless Ronnie Brown has a huge day running the ball and Miami can force at least three turnovers, I think Oakland will win handily.
Upset season record: 2-1.
TAKING A BREAK: New Orleans, Washington, Jacksonville and Tennessee.
Start with the eight intradivision games:
In the AFC, the former Browns (Baltimore Ravens) play the current Browns, who have been sparked by a former Raven (RB Jamal Lewis). Got it? ... The Chiefs visit the Chargers in a battle of two disappointing teams seeking to avoid 1-3 starts in the West. ... And the banged-up Bills play host to a Jets team that can get itself back in the hunt in the East with a second consecutive East victory.
In the NFC, the Central team pair off. Brett Favre can set the all-time touchdown pass record in Minnesota, but more importantly, the Packers can improve to 4-0 with a victory over the Vikings. Meanwhile, the banged-up Bears (who might be without DL Tommie Harris, LB Lance Briggs and three-fourths of their starting secondary) turn to QB Brian Griese at Detroit, where the Lions can score points in bunches but also give them up in bunches. ... In the East, the Eagles and Giants are coming off their first victories, and both need one here to keep pace with the Cowboys. ... In the South and the West, first place is on the line when the Bucs visit the Panthers and the Seahawks pay a call on the 49ers.
ALL IN THE FAMILY
Pittsburgh (3-0) at Arizona (1-2): The Steelers pay a visit to the desert and renew acquaintances with the two assistants passed over for their head coaching vacancy in favor of Coach Mike Tomlin (Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm).
Houston (2-1) at Atlanta (0-3): The Matt Schaub Bowl. Think the Falcons regret trading the QB now?
THAT 70s SHOW (aka GAMES OF THE WEAK)
Turn back the clock three decades and you'd have two marquee matchups - the Raiders at the Dolphins and the Rams at the Cowboys. Instead you get the Games of the Weak.
Oakland (1-2) will start Daunte Culpepper at QB against one of his former teams, Miami (0-3). The Raiders have established a running game with LaMont Jordan, and RB Ronnie Brown showed signs of life for the Dolphins last week. Whomever gets the best of that battle against two decent defenses likely will lead his team to victory.
The beleagured Rams (0-3) will be without two of their top offensive linemen and RB Steven Jackson against a Cowboys team (3-0) that is clicking on all cylinders. Compounding things for St. Louis are QB Marc Bulger's broken ribs and the Rams defense's inability to stop anything. It won't be pretty.
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Denver (2-1) at Indianapolis (3-0): The Broncos have to run the ball well and control the clock to have a chance. Running might be a strategy the Colts want to adhere to this week - Denver's secondary is good, but the Broncos can't stop the run.
New England (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2): I think the Patriots will win, particularly if Bengals RB Rudi Johnson can't play, but this Monday night game will be a blast to watch because of all the points being scored. I expect to see at least 70.
UPSET SPECIAL:
Oakland over Miami. Yes, the Dolphins are favored, but I think the Raiders might be better than many (including yours truly) expected at the beginning of the season. Unless Ronnie Brown has a huge day running the ball and Miami can force at least three turnovers, I think Oakland will win handily.
Upset season record: 2-1.
TAKING A BREAK: New Orleans, Washington, Jacksonville and Tennessee.
Friday, September 21, 2007
NFL Week 3
In this week's edition of Sports Illustrated, NFL writer Peter King, who is one of the most decent, hard-working men in the business, writes a piece about the "code" among NFL coaches and how the Jets' Eric Mangini broke that by turning in the Patriots and Bill Belichick for their video spy tactics.
Unnamed source after unnamed source said how bad it was, what a slap in the face it was to Belichick, who helped jump start Mangini's career. Without directly saying it, the piece inferred it's irresponsible to turn in a former mentor for cheating. And let's call it what it is. Belichick and the Patriots cheated. Whether it affected the outcome of the game or whether or not any other teams do it (they do) isn't pertinent for argument's sake.
Also cited was a time when Mangini and the Jets signed a player, a free agent, off the Patriots' roster whom Belichick wanted to retain. That also broke the "code", according to King.
And what of Mangini? Doesn't he have a responsibility to the guys who sign his paycheck? The fans who make that paycheck possible? And to the 53 men plus staffers he faces each week on the field and in the locker room? That responsibility counts for more than " the code" - it's just that few, including King unfortunately, seem to get that.
GAME OF THE WEEK
Chicago (1-1) at Dallas (2-0): The Bears have allowed the fewest points in the NFC, the Cowboys score an average of 13 more per game than any other NFC team. What will give? It comes down to can the Bears establish a ground game to control the clock, and can QB Rex Grossman he limit his mistakes?
GAMES WORTH A PEEK
San Diego (1-1) at Green Bay (2-0): The Packers have two wins over playoff teams from a year ago in two weeks. Their defense and special teams have been so strong they've helped overcome a non-existent running game and a passing game that relies on dink-and-dunk plays. The Chargers are smarting after a rough Week 1 victory over the Bears and a rougher Week 2 loss in New England. LaDainian Tomlinson really can't have three bad games in a row, can he? He has to carry the load, literally, because QB Philip Rivers appears to have no feel for the rush and he's going to see a lot of it.
San Francisco (2-0) at Pittsburth (2-0): The team of the 80s faces the team of the 70s. The 49ers defense was dealt a blow when LB Manny Lawson was lost for the season with a knee injury. If the Steelers stop RB Frank Gore, they'll roll because the Pittsburgh offense appears formidable. So much for new coach Mike Tomlin's break-in period.
Indianapolis (2-0) at Houston (2-0): Yes, the AFC South title might be on the line. OK, that's an exaggeration, but if the Texans beat the Super Bowl champs, they will have an early lead in the division and stamp themselves a legitimate playoff contender. Unfortunately for the Texans, star WR Andre Johnson will miss the game because of injury. Houston beat Indy at home last season without QB Matt Schaub, however, and he has been a difference-maker for the Texans offense.
GAMES OF THE WEAK
Miami (0-2) at NY Jets (0-2): The good news is one of these teams will pick up a victory. The bad news: They more than likely will still be two games behind the Patriots.
Cleveland (1-1) at Oakland (0-2): Unlike last week, when the Browns rang up 51 points on Cincinnati's crummy defense, they face a team with a real defense. The problem for the Raiders is their offense (RB LaMont Jordan being the exception).
UPSET SPECIAL
Jacksonville (1-1) at Denver (2-0): What's puzzling about the Jaguars is their lack of a running game thus far (they're ranked 21st). The Broncos lead the NFL in yards and are second in yards allowed, yet they've scored just 38 points in two games and have needed a last-second field goal and an overtime field goal to beat teams that are a combined 0-2. I like the Jaguars to take it.
Last week: The Dolphins hung tough for about two and a half quarters then disintegrated vs. the Cowboys, making me 1-1 in upset picks.
Unnamed source after unnamed source said how bad it was, what a slap in the face it was to Belichick, who helped jump start Mangini's career. Without directly saying it, the piece inferred it's irresponsible to turn in a former mentor for cheating. And let's call it what it is. Belichick and the Patriots cheated. Whether it affected the outcome of the game or whether or not any other teams do it (they do) isn't pertinent for argument's sake.
Also cited was a time when Mangini and the Jets signed a player, a free agent, off the Patriots' roster whom Belichick wanted to retain. That also broke the "code", according to King.
And what of Mangini? Doesn't he have a responsibility to the guys who sign his paycheck? The fans who make that paycheck possible? And to the 53 men plus staffers he faces each week on the field and in the locker room? That responsibility counts for more than " the code" - it's just that few, including King unfortunately, seem to get that.
GAME OF THE WEEK
Chicago (1-1) at Dallas (2-0): The Bears have allowed the fewest points in the NFC, the Cowboys score an average of 13 more per game than any other NFC team. What will give? It comes down to can the Bears establish a ground game to control the clock, and can QB Rex Grossman he limit his mistakes?
GAMES WORTH A PEEK
San Diego (1-1) at Green Bay (2-0): The Packers have two wins over playoff teams from a year ago in two weeks. Their defense and special teams have been so strong they've helped overcome a non-existent running game and a passing game that relies on dink-and-dunk plays. The Chargers are smarting after a rough Week 1 victory over the Bears and a rougher Week 2 loss in New England. LaDainian Tomlinson really can't have three bad games in a row, can he? He has to carry the load, literally, because QB Philip Rivers appears to have no feel for the rush and he's going to see a lot of it.
San Francisco (2-0) at Pittsburth (2-0): The team of the 80s faces the team of the 70s. The 49ers defense was dealt a blow when LB Manny Lawson was lost for the season with a knee injury. If the Steelers stop RB Frank Gore, they'll roll because the Pittsburgh offense appears formidable. So much for new coach Mike Tomlin's break-in period.
Indianapolis (2-0) at Houston (2-0): Yes, the AFC South title might be on the line. OK, that's an exaggeration, but if the Texans beat the Super Bowl champs, they will have an early lead in the division and stamp themselves a legitimate playoff contender. Unfortunately for the Texans, star WR Andre Johnson will miss the game because of injury. Houston beat Indy at home last season without QB Matt Schaub, however, and he has been a difference-maker for the Texans offense.
GAMES OF THE WEAK
Miami (0-2) at NY Jets (0-2): The good news is one of these teams will pick up a victory. The bad news: They more than likely will still be two games behind the Patriots.
Cleveland (1-1) at Oakland (0-2): Unlike last week, when the Browns rang up 51 points on Cincinnati's crummy defense, they face a team with a real defense. The problem for the Raiders is their offense (RB LaMont Jordan being the exception).
UPSET SPECIAL
Jacksonville (1-1) at Denver (2-0): What's puzzling about the Jaguars is their lack of a running game thus far (they're ranked 21st). The Broncos lead the NFL in yards and are second in yards allowed, yet they've scored just 38 points in two games and have needed a last-second field goal and an overtime field goal to beat teams that are a combined 0-2. I like the Jaguars to take it.
Last week: The Dolphins hung tough for about two and a half quarters then disintegrated vs. the Cowboys, making me 1-1 in upset picks.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
NFL Week 2 rewind
Suppose you're a pro football fan in New York, Kansas City, New Orleans or Philadelphia today. Your team (or in NY's case - both of them) is off to an 0-2 start after reaching the playoffs last season. In the case of New Orleans, your team reached the NFC Championship Game and was widely predicted to be a Super Bowl contender.
Where do you go from here, and is your season lost?
Here are some possible scenarios for you team and my view on their playoff prospects in 2007:
New York Jets - Losing QB Chad Pennington to injury hurts. They're a different team with him in the lineup. The Jets' defense played better vs. the Ravens in Week 2, but the killer was dropped passes by their receivers, particularly late in the game. ... They face a long playoff road in the highly competitive AFC, but not impossible one.
New York Giants - The back seven of their defense looks horrible. The running game has been up and down, and no one knows just how injured QB Eli Manning is. Oh, and it's only taken two weeks for people to start calling for Coach Tom Coghlin's head again. ... It's going to be a long season for the G-men, particularly in the division they play in.
Kansas City - Let's see, the Chiefs can't score and can't run the ball. The highlight so far is their defense is middle of the road and has been good against the pass. Still trying to figure out why they felt the need to trade QB Trent Green. ... The Chiefs should start planning for a high draft choice.
Philadelphia - The Eagles really might be close to being a decent team. The offense is struggling to get in sync, but that's more a product of QB Donovan McNabb regaining strength, timing and comfort. My guess is he will. The defense has been very good and seems to have solved its problems vs. the run. If Philly can put a stop to its mistakes and penalties, it will be in the hunt for a playoff berth because so many NFC teams have major flaws.
New Orleans - How does this team have just 24 points so far in two games? The league's top offense in 2006 has appeared lost at times. It's as if teams have figured out what Coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees are trying to do. The talent does not say this is a middle-of-the-pack offense. The defense has been awful, particularly the secondary - even worse than I thought it would be. The Saints' division is so bad that 8-8 might get them a spot in the playoffs, but I don't know if they can overcome Carolina, which I now view as the front-runner in the NFC South.
Where do you go from here, and is your season lost?
Here are some possible scenarios for you team and my view on their playoff prospects in 2007:
New York Jets - Losing QB Chad Pennington to injury hurts. They're a different team with him in the lineup. The Jets' defense played better vs. the Ravens in Week 2, but the killer was dropped passes by their receivers, particularly late in the game. ... They face a long playoff road in the highly competitive AFC, but not impossible one.
New York Giants - The back seven of their defense looks horrible. The running game has been up and down, and no one knows just how injured QB Eli Manning is. Oh, and it's only taken two weeks for people to start calling for Coach Tom Coghlin's head again. ... It's going to be a long season for the G-men, particularly in the division they play in.
Kansas City - Let's see, the Chiefs can't score and can't run the ball. The highlight so far is their defense is middle of the road and has been good against the pass. Still trying to figure out why they felt the need to trade QB Trent Green. ... The Chiefs should start planning for a high draft choice.
Philadelphia - The Eagles really might be close to being a decent team. The offense is struggling to get in sync, but that's more a product of QB Donovan McNabb regaining strength, timing and comfort. My guess is he will. The defense has been very good and seems to have solved its problems vs. the run. If Philly can put a stop to its mistakes and penalties, it will be in the hunt for a playoff berth because so many NFC teams have major flaws.
New Orleans - How does this team have just 24 points so far in two games? The league's top offense in 2006 has appeared lost at times. It's as if teams have figured out what Coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees are trying to do. The talent does not say this is a middle-of-the-pack offense. The defense has been awful, particularly the secondary - even worse than I thought it would be. The Saints' division is so bad that 8-8 might get them a spot in the playoffs, but I don't know if they can overcome Carolina, which I now view as the front-runner in the NFC South.
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