I like to think of the NFL season in terms of quarters, and this weekend we enter the second quarter of the season. So what does that mean? Adjustments.
There will be some teams who have gotten off to unexpected slow starts that begin to pull it together, while others continue their fade. And some of the fast-starters might be in for rude awakenings.
I believe this is a week we'll start to see that, and I will address that in selected games.
Remember, too, that the impact of injuries can't be overstated.
GAMES OF THE WEEK:
Detroit (3-1) at Washington (2-1): It's tough for me to believe the Lions will win 12 games, which they're on pace to, or even the 10 that QB Jon Kitna predicted. Here's why - their defense has been terrible, which is masked by the amount of turnovers they're forcing. Their offense is explosive, but for a club that relies on the pass as much the Lions do, they must protect Kitna better - he's on pace to be sacked more than 80 times. The Redskins are rested after an early bye week, and I believe they will return to a ball-control-style of offense. And Washington's defense is showing some improvement. Factor in that the Redskins have the horses in the secondary to keep up with Detroit's passing game, and I see the Lions' bubble beginning to burst.
Tampa Bay (3-1) at Indianapolis (4-0): The Bucs certainly qualify as a surprise team. Their defense has been revitalized, and QB Jeff Garcia is playing nearly mistake-free football. However, losing RB Cadillac Williams for the season to injury is going to hurt because I believe the Colts can be run on. If this game turns into a shootout, Indy will expose Tampa's defense. And don't forget, Colts coach Tony Dungy knows Tampa's defense better than most of its players do. I would be surprised if this isn't close because Tampa appears better than most (including myself thought).
Seattle (3-1) at Pittsburgh (3-1): This will be a huge test for both of the Super Bowl 40 participants. Can the Seahawks win another big game on the road and stamp themselves as a Super Bowl contender? How do the Steelers respond after a disappointing road loss at Arizona? Expect a low-scoring, ground-based game because both teams have ferocious pass rushes.
Chicago (1-3) at Green Bay (4-0): Are the Packers for real despite having the league's worst ground game? Can the Bears overcome an array of injuries and an offense that appears completely out of sync? Answer to question No. 1 - yes, Green Bay's defense and special teams are excellent, and so far Brett Favre has been outstanding enough to compensate for a lack of a ground game. Chicago has looked horrible two weeks in a row, but this is a rivalry game, and the Bears' season is riding on it. If Chicago loses, it's four games out of first place and it has two division losses after only one all last season (to Green Bay). The Bears must blitz Favre silly and control the ball behind RB Cedric Benson or they're staring at 1-4.
GAMES OF THE WEAK (and some upsets):
Carolina (2-2) at New Orleans (0-3): Before the season I would have pegged this as one of the NFC's top games, but not now. The Saints have not been able to do much right offensively or defensively, but the most telling stat is they do not have a sack yet this season. But the Panthers are without QB Jake Delhomme, and backup David Carr looked awful last week against the Bucs. Somehow the Saints, who are coming off a bye, are favored, but they haven't proved they can stop anyone, so I predict Carolina will run the ball at will.
Arizona (2-2) at St. Louis (0-4): Both teams are banged up, but the difference is the Cardinals have an aggressive defense and RB Edgerrin James. Tough to see the Rams winning without RB Steven Jackson and QB Marc Bulger. Also tough to see Coach Scott Linehan lasting more than a few weeks as things continue to implode under the arch.
ANOTHER UPSET SPECIAL:
San Diego (1-3) at Denver (2-2): Two more teams I was high on at the beginning of the season, and I think the Chargers will pull it together if they start running LaDainian Tomlinson more. The Broncos offer the perfect team to do that against. I also think the Chargers' defense has far more ability than it's shown thus far. The Chargers get their season back on track.
Upset picks:
Carolina over New Orleans
San Diego over Denver
Season record on upset specials: 3-1
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