NFL Week 14 preview

It appears that it will take nine victories to have a shot at an NFC wild-card berth, and most likely 10 to make it in the AFC.

With four games remaining for all but Chicago and Washington (who played Thursday night), here is a glance at the playoff pictures in each conference.

NFC
Likely Division Winners (and an automatic playoff berth):
East - Dallas needs one win or one Giants loss. The Cowboys (11-1) have a strong inside track at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs after defeating Green Bay last week.
North - Green Bay needs a win or a tie and a Detroit loss or tie to clinch it. The Packers (10-2) can't get careless because Seattle (8-4) and Tampa Bay (8-4) are still two games back in the race for first-round bye.
South - Tampa Bay's victory over the Saints has it in the driver's seat. A win and combination of losses by the Saints and Panthers puts the Bucs in.
West - Seattle will win another weak division with a victory.

NFC wild-card race
8-4 - N.Y. Giants would have to completely implode to not make it. One victory and a combination of other teams' losses puts them in the postseason.
6-6 - Arizona Detroit, Minnesota ... The Cardinals are really banged up. Detroit has lost four in a row and has to face Dallas, San Diego, Kansas City and Green Bay still. ... Minnesota has come on, Adrian Peterson is seemingly healthy and all four of their remaining games are winnable. Vikings are the best bet.
6-7 - Washington. All the Redskins have to do is win at New York, at Minnesota and close the season by beating Dallas (which might not have much to play for in Week 17) at home. A very, very tall order.
5-7 - Carolina, New Orleans, Philadelphia. I'm not saying it couldn't happen for any of these teams, but the odds seem very long given the teams in the conference they've lost to.
Seasons done
Atlanta (3-9), Chicago (5-8), San Francisco (3-9), St. Louis (3-9)

AFC

Likely Division Winners
East - New England (12-0) has clinched it and barring three losses in four games will have home-field advantage.
South - Indianapolis (10-2) has a huge edge for the division title after its season sweep of Jacksonville. It must beware of Pittsburgh in the race for a first-round bye.
North - Pittsburgh (9-3) needs a victory or a Browns loss to lock it up.
West - San Diego (7-5) needs one victory and one Denver loss to clinch it, which is remarkable after how poorly the Chargers started.
Wild-card race
8-4 - Jacksonville - A very solid team with three very winnable games in their final four.
7-5 - Cleveland, Tennessee. This incarnation of the Browns has played poorly in December, but their schedule (Jets, Bills, Bengals and 49ers) isn't particularly imposing. The Titans not only have San Diego this Sunday and a visit to Kansas City next week, but close with a visit to Indianapolis, which could be playing for a bye. Having said that, the Titans have a better defense, and I like those sorts of teams when the weather turns bad.
6-6 - Buffalo. If either 7-5 team implodes, this is the team to watch for. After Miami, they visit Cleveland, host the Giants and visit Philadelphia. If they win the next two, they'll hold a tie-breaker over the Browns and might catch the banged-up Giants in a meaningless game for playoff position.
Seasons done
Miami (0-12), NY Jets (3-9), Oakland (4-8), Baltimore (4-8), Cincinnati (4-8), Houston (5-7), Denver (5-7)

GAME OF THE WEEK:
Pittsburgh (9-3) at New England (12-0): The obvious choice. Most experts predict this is the week the Patriots could lose after their less-than-stellar performances in Weeks 12-13. The big factor from my point of view will be the weather. If it's bad, the Steelers could pull it off. Pittsburgh certain fits the template for a team that could knock the Pats off their perch. I question if the Steelers can score enough to keep up, however.

GAME OF THE WEAK:
St. Louis (3-9) at Cincinnati (4-8): Injuries ruined the Rams' season, and few teams have been as disappointing as the Bengals (Chicago, New Orleans and Baltimore come to mind, however). It could be a fun game to watch given the explosive potential of the respective offenses.

Upset Special:
New York Jets (3-9) over Cleveland (7-5). I think the Jets' defense can stop or at least slow the Browns' attack, and I think the Jets will run at will on the Browns. The tipping point: the Jets are creating more turnovers of late, and the Browns have had a penchant for a lot of giveaways.

Upset Special Season Record: 7-6