Friday, December 21, 2007

An Extra Helping of Tuna

Well, this didn't take very long.

Bill Parcells was masterful in playing the Dolphins against the Falcons this week, ultimately gaining more money and power in the process to run the entire Dolphins football operation less than one year than leaving his job as Cowboys coach.

This isn't the first time the Tuna has had a fishing expedition such as this. His record indicates two things - he won't stay long in Miami (lasted no more than four years in his past three NFL jobs), but the Dolphins will be in far better shape when he departs than when he arrived (all three teams - Patriots, Jets and Cowboys became playoff teams).

What that in mind, I'd like to take a look at the status of the coaches in the NFL. I expect more offseason turnover in the AFC than the NFC this year:

AFC
Baltimore - Yes, Brian Billick has won a Super Bowl, but that was six seasons ago, and the Ravens have lost eight in a row after a 4-10 start. The team is aging at several key positions and there are signs of dissension. This will be the second losing season in three years, wrapped around a 13-3 campaign that ended with a divisional-round playoff loss. It might be time for a change as the Ravens rebuild.
Buffalo - The Bills have overcome numerous injuries and free-agent losses to post a 7-7 record. Dick Jauron has done an excellent job.
Cincinnati - The Bengals have gone from 11 wins to eight to five in the past three seasons. Another team seemingly in disarray, Coach Marvin Lewis might pay.
Cleveland - Romeo Crennel has the Browns at 9-5 and in serious contention for a playoff spot. One more victory, and Cleveland will equal its total from the past two seasons.
Denver - Has the master lost his touch? After not winning fewer than nine games in the past five seasons, Mike Shanahan's Broncos have to win out just to hit seven Ws. More disturbing, they've gone from 13 to 9 to 5 in the win category in spite of annual retooling.
Houston - Year 2 of the Gary Kubiak era has gone well, showing improvement in wins (6 to 7 with two games left) and competitiveness. Keeping the skill position players healthy on offense should lead to further improvement.
Indianapolis - Tony Dungy has the Colts at 12-2 despite numerous injuries, free-agent losses and the Super Bowl champion's target.
Jacksonville - The Jags have bounced back under Jack Del Rio and could make a lot of noise in the playoffs as a wild-card. This team plays to its strengths (running, defense) as well as any. Plus, making the call to release QB Byron Leftwich and go with David Garrard was brilliant, albeit tough.
Kansas City - The Chiefs lost RB Larry Johnson to injury and struggled at QB, but four wins after making the playoffs last season and winning 19 games the past two seasons combined? I think Herm Edwards will get a third season, but it's debatable.
Miami - Cam Cameron has overseen a 1-13 disaster. With Parcells' entrance, I foresee a massive house cleaning.
New England - Bill Belichick can stay as long as he likes, particularly if the Pats go 19-0.
New York - In one season Eric Mangini has gone from "Man-genius" to "Oh Man!" as the Jets have fallen from 10-6 to 3-11. Still, it would be a mild surprise if he was shown the door.
Oakland - It's tough to tell if anything has improved under first-year coach Lane Kiffin. It's not thee 2-14 disaster of 2006, but I think the plan was to win more than four games and establish some semblance of an ascent. Frankly, I would not be shocked if the Raiders switched coaches again. The problem is their talent level is not as deep as they might have thought.
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin was an excellent hire, and the Steelers are heading back to the playoffs with a bit more balance on offense and their trademark defense.
San Diego - After a 1-3 start, the Chargers have hit their stride under Norv Turner, who took a lot of heat early. If the Bolts are healthy, they have the talent to make noise in the playoffs.
Tennessee - Year-in, year-out, the Titans play hard. They'll likely improve on last season's eight wins with middle-of-the-pack talent and could reach the playoffs. Jeff Fisher has reinforced to me that he's one of the best in the business.


NFC
Arizona - Racked by injuries to some of their best players (Matt Leinart, Adrian Wilson, Eric Green and Anquan Boldin), the Cardinals have been much more competitive under first-year coach Ken Whisenhunt.
Atlanta - It just keeps getting worse here. The next coach will have his work cut out for him.
Carolina - The Panthers need to win their final two games to match last season's 8-8 record. They're on their fourth QB of the season, but their defense has been more hit and miss than in the past. Still, John Fox seems safe.
Chicago - Lovie Smith has done a good job with a team that has shown a lot of vulnerabilities due to injuries, a shaky QB situation and some key free-agent losses (RB Thomas Jones and several D linemen).
Dallas - If the Cowboys don't at least reach the Super Bowl or other teams try to poach offensive coordinator to be their head coach, I could see owner Jerry Jones pulling the plug on Wade Phillips and naming Garrett coach.
Detroit - The Lions are improving under Rod Marinelli, but the losing culture that has been so prevalent still needs some overhauling. A 6-2 start has turned into 6-8.
Green Bay - The youngest team in the league has won 16 of its past 18 games since starting 4-8 under Mike McCarthy. Brett Favre looks better, the ground game is coming around and the defense and special teams are special.
Minnesota - Brad Childress has remained patient, stuck with his plan and it's paying off. Minnesota has won five in a row to pull into playoff contention and already has one more win than last season.
New Orleans - The reality is the Saints weren't as good as last season's NFC Championship Game appearance indicated and not as bas as their 0-4 start this season. Sean Payton has adjusted well in the face of injuries to his running backs.
New York - The Giants are picking a bad time of the season to get injured and play poorer. Anything less than a playoff spot and it's fairly certain Tom Coghlin is gone. Even if the G-men reach the playoffs and get smoked in the wild-card round he might be gone.
Philadelphia - Another team that has been hammered by injuries and QB controversies, the Eagles would be crazy to let Andy Reid or QB Donovan McNabb go in the offeseason.
St. Louis - The Rams have been hammered by injuries, too, but the amount of penalties and other mistakes they make indicate some coaching issues. They're going to finish with at least four fewer victories than last season's 8-8 squad, and most of their star players aside from Steven Jackson are hitting the age when a decline is possible. I don't like Scott Linehan's chances.
San Francisco - A lot of the momentum gained from last season's seven victories has been lost, again due in part to injuries at QB and RB. I don't know if this team is as bad as four wins, but it's certainly not a playoff team. Mike Nolan isn't going anywhere, but the 49ers have to improve - a lot - on offense to compete.
Seattle - The Seahawks again won the West, and they have the talent to win a few playoff games and maybe reach the Super Bowl. Mike Holmgren continues to do a very good job and not get a lot of recognition for it.
Tampa Bay - Like him or hate him, Jon Gruden has managed rebuild on the fly and win the South. The South is one of the worst divisions in football, but Tampa has gone from four wins to nine and could finish with 11.
Washington - Joe Gibbs' place is secure, but one wonders how much more he'll put up with. The Sean Taylor slaying rocked the team and the league. The past few editions of the Redskins have been up and down, not a description typically used with past Gibbs teams.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Good calls on Billick and Nolan o wise one.

Unknown said...

Nice calls on Billick and Nolan o wise one.So far so good.