The AFC has morphed into the NFL's dominant conference this decade, and it features several strong Super Bowl contenders again this season - not the least of which are defending champion Pittsburgh and New England, which eagerly welcomes back quarterback Tom Brady.
Here is a look at each of the AFC's four divisions (*denotes playoff team)
EAST
Predicted order of finish: New England*, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo
Fast fact: Miami LB Jason Taylor needs eight sacks to move into the top 10 all-time in league history
The king: Much has been made of the return of Brady from a knee injury, but a bigger storyline in New England could be the extreme makeover of the defense. DE Richard Seymour, LBs Mike Vrabel, Rosevelt Colvin, Junior Seau and Teddy Bruschi, S Rodney Harrison and CB Ellis Hobbs all are gone. One guess is Coach Bill Belichick ultimately realized his defense needed to get faster (and younger). Remember, too, that the Pats have more high draft choices over the next two seasons than anyone as a result of trades of Seymour, Hobbs, Vrabel and QB Matt Cassell. The Brady-led passing game should be as potent as ever with the addition of WR Joey Galloway and RB Fred Taylor - two veterans itching for a Super Bowl ring.
The others: It says here Miami's rise from worst to first in the East was no fluke. The Dolphins were in the top 15 in the league in both defense and offense. The Chad Pennington-led offense was surprisingly balanced. And RB Ronnie Brown experienced a rebirth, thanks in part to the Wildcat formation. If the pass defense improves, the Dolphins could again hang with the conference's elite. ... The Jets have the potential to be a very good team, but they need a lot of things to come together - one more season from RB Thomas Jones, a quick integration of rookie QB Mark Sanchez into the offense, a receiver to step up, and the defense to take to new coach Rex Ryan's aggressive scheme. The latter shouldn't be a problem, but New York might have some problems scoring points unless some playmakers emerge. ... So the Bills added WR Terrell Owens, fired their offensive coordinator for being too creative in his play calling and completely rebuilt their offensive line, again. Oh, and their best offensive player - RB Marshawn Lynch - is suspended for the first three games. This doesn't sound like a winning formula.
NORTH
Predicted order of finish: Pittsburgh*, Baltimore*, Cincinnati, Cleveland
Fast fact: No team can match the Steelers' six Super Bowl victories.
The king: Pittsburgh can play it any way you want it thanks to a punishing defense, an underrated passing attack, a variety of running backs and a quarterback who appears to be a supersized version of John Elway. Ben Roethlisberger might not always put up the best numbers, but his flair for winning games in the final minutes certainly reminds me of the former Broncos great. The Steelers return largely intact, and it bears remembering that they had to overcome several key injuries last season, so they might be stronger this go around.
The others: I don't see a sophomore slump for Ravens QB Joe Flacco, and I do see a group of running backs that have pushed each other to be better. Much like the Jets, the Ravens need a young receiver to emerge to make Flacco's life a bit easier. The defense again should be stout, although losing coordinator Rex Ryan and LB Bart Scott to the Jets will hurt. The departure of stud offensive lineman Jason Brown didn't get as much attention but is equally important to Flacco and the offense. ... Cincinnati is mentioned as a darkhorse team by many prognosticators, and there are several reasons for this optimism. First, the return of QB Carson Palmer provides a massive upgrade at that position for an offense that ranked 32nd overall in 2008. Second, the defense continues to add players with plenty of upside through the draft (see LB Rey Maualuga). Third, Laveranues Coles isn't as big of a dropoff at WR from TJ Houshmandzadeh. The Bengals will have to run the ball A LOT better to sniff the playoffs. ... So who is the Browns' quarterback? Who will run the ball for Cleveland? Who will stop the run? The Browns' near-playoff berth two seasons ago looks more and more like a fluke. A return to form by WR Braylon Edwards would help the 31st-ranked passing offense, regardless of whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson is throwing to him.
SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Tennessee*, Houston*, Indianapolis, Jacksonville
Fast fact: Colts QB Peyton Manning is fourth all-time in TD passes and needs just 10 more to take over third - behind only Dan Marino and Brett Favre.
The king: The Titans won't catch anyone by surprise this season. Despite the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency, Tennessee's 7th-ranked defense should not fall off much. The ground game is in good hands with RBs Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Tennessee really needs rookie WR Kenny Britt to develops into a No. 1 receiver.
The others: Two consecutive 8-8 seasons and a steady influx of talent have me convinced this is the year for the Texans to finally make the playoffs. The key is keeping QB Matt Schaub healthy. Schaub, who has missed an average of five games the past two seasons, has plenty of targets - WRs Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels and RB Steve Slaton. But Schaub doesn't have a quality backup like Sage Rosenfels this season. Houston has an excellent defensive front and a Pro Bowl middle linebacker in DeMeco Ryans. However, the rest of the back half of the defense could be the team's undoing. ... How will the Colts respond to not having Tony Dungy on the sideline and Marvin Harrison split out on offense? The former, as well as some other coaching staff turnover, is a greater concern at this point. It's tough to bet against QB Peyton Manning, but the Colts' ground game and play vs. the run both were near the bottom of the NFL last season. That is not a formula for reaching the playoffs in 2009. ... The Jaguars aren't particularly awful in any phase of the game, but neither are they outstanding, and that won't get you far in the NFL. A lot is riding on QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew. The defense lacks impact players at this point.
WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Diego*, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City
Fast fact: Another 1,000-yard season for Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson will catapult him to seventh all-time on the NFL career rushing list.
The king: The aforementioned LT is healthy, and so is rush LB Shawn Merriman. The Chargers clearly are the class of a week division, and their offense - behind QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates and RBs Tomlinson and Darren Sproles - should be one of the league's best. Merriman's presence and pass rush makes the entire defense more effective. The evidence? The Chargers' sack total dropped from 42 to 28 and interceptions went from 22 to 8 last season.
The others: The season can't start soon enough for Denver, which improved its chances for having a better ground game by signing LaMont Jordan and Correll Buckhalter and drafting Knowshawn Moreno. That's offset by dealing QB Jay Cutler. The defense ranked in the bottom eight against both the rush and the pass, so there is work to be done. ... The Raiders followed up one of the more baffling drafts in recent memory by cutting the QB (Jeff Garcia) who clearly gave them the best chance to win. JaMarcus Russell would have to make huge strides for Oakland to be competitive. On defense, the Raiders have to improve the NFL's second-worst run defense. ... Two seasons in a row the Chiefs have traded an impact player. Last season it was DE Jared Allen. This past offseason it was TE Tony Gonzalez. The result has been a bunch of extra draft picks and QB Matt Cassell. Kansas City will be very young at most positions.
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