Better late (or early in this case) than never.
Here is how I see each division shaking out during the 2010 NFL season with a comment after each.
AFC
East - NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
Comment: I see flaws with every team in this division, and I think it will be a dogfight between the top three teams. I considered going with the Dolphins, but I'm reading about too many injuries and external problems to pick them in good conscience now. ... If Mark Sanchez is average at QB, the Jets (whom I think are overrated a bit ) could win. But they need RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson to come up big. ... The Patriots have talent, but have the look of a team in transition. I expect them to play better as the season goes along. ... Ditto the Bills, who will rely heavily on their running game.
North - Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
Comment: Tough call again between the top two teams but I went with the Bengals because I don't see a weak position group on that team, and the Ravens' secondary concerns me quite a bit. ... With all the talk of the Dynamic Duo at WR for the Bengals, the real pressure is on Carson Palmer to produce at QB. He play has slipped the past few years due to injury and inaccuracy. If rebounds, the Bengals could go deep in the playoffs. ... The Ravens have all of the ingredients save for a secondary to also enjoy January (and perhaps February) games. Their offense should be among the league's best, and their front seven on defense remains top-notch. ... I think the Steelers will really struggle without suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first month of the season. I also am not sold on their offensive line or cornerbacks. They've turned over a fair amount of their roster the past two years and their younger players must play well now or it could be another 8-8 season. ... The Browns have more stability in the front office (Mike Holmgren) and under center (Jake Delhomme), but injuries on defense will hurt early on. Tough to see them doing very well in a stacked division this year.
South - Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville
Comment: The Colts have to fall off some year, and I think this is it. ... The Texans have the pieces for an explosive offense, and they've drafted a lot of talent on defense. If the latter gels and they can win their Week 1 matchup with the Colts, I see not only a division title, but possibly a playoff win in the cards. ... The Colts' lines scare me. Peyton Manning appeared more frustrated during preseason than I've ever seen him (not just about the placement of umpires), and their o-line didn't protect him well vs. vanilla defenses. The frequency of injuries to top players on defense - DE Dwight Freeney and S Bob Sanders - has to be a concern given their ages. ... The Titans are a trendy pick to re-emerge as a contender, but defenses will key on RB Chris Johnson a lot more. So it falls on QB Vince Young to develop into the elite QB his talent indicates he can. If that happens, the Titans could break through. ... The Jaguars have enough talent to be a tough out vs. any opponent, but sustaining a high level of play has been the challenge for them over the past few years.
West - San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
Comment: This will be a very interesting division to follow, and probably not because it will house a truly great team. ... The Chargers have lost a lot of talent - RB LaDainian Tomlinson, LT Marcus McNeill, WR Vincent Jackson, CB Antonio Cromartie, and NT Jamal Williams to name five past Pro Bowl picks - since the 2009 season ended and appear to be heading back to the pack. Perhaps they know something we don't and they have talent ready to replace that quintet. ... The Raiders added quite a bit - QB Jason Campbell, MLB Rolando McClain come to mind - to an underrated group of youngsters. The biggest plus might be coaching stability this season.... The Chiefs seem to be on the same upward track as the Raiders, but perhaps one step behind in the talent department. ... The Broncos traded their best offensive player (WR Brandon Marshall) and lost their best defensive player (sackman Elvis Dumervil) to a season-ending injury in camp. Their top RB (Knowshown Moreno) is injured and his backup (Correll Buckhalter) has had as many knee surgeries as some team. If last season's second-half implosion, things could spin out of control at an altitude of one mile pretty quickly.
Showing posts with label Chargers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chargers. Show all posts
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Saturday, September 19, 2009
2009 NFL Week 2 preview
There weren't many surprises in Week 1 of the NFL season, but I expect there to be several this week. There are a number of enticing match-ups, including:
The intra-division clashes
The three of the past four seasons have featured either Pittsburgh or Chicago in the Super Bowl. The Bears are stinging from a road loss to the rival Packers, while the Steelers are stinging from a physical overtime win over the Titans on opening night. So this should be another black and blue game, right? Not necessarily. The Steelers had a 2-1 pass to run ratio (47-23) in their opener, while the Bears had 38 passes and 31 rushes. Which team will generate more pressure and have better coverage?
- Carolina at Atlanta
- New England at the NY Jets
- Oakland at Kansas City
- NY Giants at Dallas
- Seattle at San Francisco
- Indianapolis at Miami
- New Orleans at Philadelphia
- Baltimore at San Diego
- Pittsburgh at Chicago
The intra-division clashes
- Carolina at Atlanta - Was last week's meltdown at home vs.the Eagles a sign of things to come for the Panthers or a factor of five turnovers? The Falcons capitalized on four uncharacteristic Dolphins turnovers last week. Atlanta can establish itself as the South's front-runner with a win here, while a Panthers loss would raise more questions.
- New England at the NY Jets - Let the smack talk flow. The Jets made a strong opening statement at Houston last week, while the Patriots looked mortal vs. the Bills. New England's defense absorbed another hit when LB Jerod Mayo suffered a knee injury. Can the Jets slow the Patriots' passing attack? That's a key question, the answer to which will help determine the AFC East's early leader.
- Oakland at Kansas City - Two 0-1 teams? Important game? Yes. Both looked surprisingly good in Week 1 losses, and both could have pulled off upsets. (I think both will as the season progresses) How QBs JaMarcus Russell of the Raiders and Matt Cassell (making his Chiefs debut) play are key. One of these teams can keep itself in the AFC West conversation.
- NY Giants at Dallas - The House That Jerry Built opens, and the schedule makers didn't do Jones or his Cowboys any favors by bringing the Giants to town. I'm curious how the Cowboys offense will do against a much stiffer defense this week.
- Seattle at San Francisco - The 49ers might be for real. They took the Cardinals apart in Arizona, and the could do the same in their home opener. Tough to get a read on the Seahawks. They played good, but not great, against the Rams last week. Seattle needs to establish its ground game, something Arizona couldn't or wouldn't do.
- New Orleans at Philadelphia - Put Donovan McNabb under center for the Eagles, and I think they would win. However, he's out. Fortunately for Kevin Kolb, the Saints don't have much of a pass rush. Philly's defense played well vs. Carolina in forcing five turnovers, but the Saints have far more firepower than the Panthers. That's the matchup to watch.
- Baltimore at San Diego - I think these are two teams with a lot to prove. Baltimore's offense impressed vs. the Chiefs, but it's defense clearly was not itself and let the Chiefs stay in their game. The Chargers could have (and probably should have) lost at Oakland. The Bolts' offensive line and backfield are banged up.
- Indianapolis at Miami - The Dolphins committed a very uncharacteristic four turnovers in losing at Atlanta, while the Colts did what they needed to to beat the Jaguars at home. Neither were impressive. A Miami loss will put it two games back of either the Jets or Patriots. The Colts need someone not named Reggie Wayne to step up in the passing game.
The three of the past four seasons have featured either Pittsburgh or Chicago in the Super Bowl. The Bears are stinging from a road loss to the rival Packers, while the Steelers are stinging from a physical overtime win over the Titans on opening night. So this should be another black and blue game, right? Not necessarily. The Steelers had a 2-1 pass to run ratio (47-23) in their opener, while the Bears had 38 passes and 31 rushes. Which team will generate more pressure and have better coverage?
Saturday, September 12, 2009
AFC 2009 Predictions
The AFC has morphed into the NFL's dominant conference this decade, and it features several strong Super Bowl contenders again this season - not the least of which are defending champion Pittsburgh and New England, which eagerly welcomes back quarterback Tom Brady.
Here is a look at each of the AFC's four divisions (*denotes playoff team)
EAST
Predicted order of finish: New England*, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo
Fast fact: Miami LB Jason Taylor needs eight sacks to move into the top 10 all-time in league history
The king: Much has been made of the return of Brady from a knee injury, but a bigger storyline in New England could be the extreme makeover of the defense. DE Richard Seymour, LBs Mike Vrabel, Rosevelt Colvin, Junior Seau and Teddy Bruschi, S Rodney Harrison and CB Ellis Hobbs all are gone. One guess is Coach Bill Belichick ultimately realized his defense needed to get faster (and younger). Remember, too, that the Pats have more high draft choices over the next two seasons than anyone as a result of trades of Seymour, Hobbs, Vrabel and QB Matt Cassell. The Brady-led passing game should be as potent as ever with the addition of WR Joey Galloway and RB Fred Taylor - two veterans itching for a Super Bowl ring.
The others: It says here Miami's rise from worst to first in the East was no fluke. The Dolphins were in the top 15 in the league in both defense and offense. The Chad Pennington-led offense was surprisingly balanced. And RB Ronnie Brown experienced a rebirth, thanks in part to the Wildcat formation. If the pass defense improves, the Dolphins could again hang with the conference's elite. ... The Jets have the potential to be a very good team, but they need a lot of things to come together - one more season from RB Thomas Jones, a quick integration of rookie QB Mark Sanchez into the offense, a receiver to step up, and the defense to take to new coach Rex Ryan's aggressive scheme. The latter shouldn't be a problem, but New York might have some problems scoring points unless some playmakers emerge. ... So the Bills added WR Terrell Owens, fired their offensive coordinator for being too creative in his play calling and completely rebuilt their offensive line, again. Oh, and their best offensive player - RB Marshawn Lynch - is suspended for the first three games. This doesn't sound like a winning formula.
NORTH
Predicted order of finish: Pittsburgh*, Baltimore*, Cincinnati, Cleveland
Fast fact: No team can match the Steelers' six Super Bowl victories.
The king: Pittsburgh can play it any way you want it thanks to a punishing defense, an underrated passing attack, a variety of running backs and a quarterback who appears to be a supersized version of John Elway. Ben Roethlisberger might not always put up the best numbers, but his flair for winning games in the final minutes certainly reminds me of the former Broncos great. The Steelers return largely intact, and it bears remembering that they had to overcome several key injuries last season, so they might be stronger this go around.
The others: I don't see a sophomore slump for Ravens QB Joe Flacco, and I do see a group of running backs that have pushed each other to be better. Much like the Jets, the Ravens need a young receiver to emerge to make Flacco's life a bit easier. The defense again should be stout, although losing coordinator Rex Ryan and LB Bart Scott to the Jets will hurt. The departure of stud offensive lineman Jason Brown didn't get as much attention but is equally important to Flacco and the offense. ... Cincinnati is mentioned as a darkhorse team by many prognosticators, and there are several reasons for this optimism. First, the return of QB Carson Palmer provides a massive upgrade at that position for an offense that ranked 32nd overall in 2008. Second, the defense continues to add players with plenty of upside through the draft (see LB Rey Maualuga). Third, Laveranues Coles isn't as big of a dropoff at WR from TJ Houshmandzadeh. The Bengals will have to run the ball A LOT better to sniff the playoffs. ... So who is the Browns' quarterback? Who will run the ball for Cleveland? Who will stop the run? The Browns' near-playoff berth two seasons ago looks more and more like a fluke. A return to form by WR Braylon Edwards would help the 31st-ranked passing offense, regardless of whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson is throwing to him.
SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Tennessee*, Houston*, Indianapolis, Jacksonville
Fast fact: Colts QB Peyton Manning is fourth all-time in TD passes and needs just 10 more to take over third - behind only Dan Marino and Brett Favre.
The king: The Titans won't catch anyone by surprise this season. Despite the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency, Tennessee's 7th-ranked defense should not fall off much. The ground game is in good hands with RBs Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Tennessee really needs rookie WR Kenny Britt to develops into a No. 1 receiver.
The others: Two consecutive 8-8 seasons and a steady influx of talent have me convinced this is the year for the Texans to finally make the playoffs. The key is keeping QB Matt Schaub healthy. Schaub, who has missed an average of five games the past two seasons, has plenty of targets - WRs Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels and RB Steve Slaton. But Schaub doesn't have a quality backup like Sage Rosenfels this season. Houston has an excellent defensive front and a Pro Bowl middle linebacker in DeMeco Ryans. However, the rest of the back half of the defense could be the team's undoing. ... How will the Colts respond to not having Tony Dungy on the sideline and Marvin Harrison split out on offense? The former, as well as some other coaching staff turnover, is a greater concern at this point. It's tough to bet against QB Peyton Manning, but the Colts' ground game and play vs. the run both were near the bottom of the NFL last season. That is not a formula for reaching the playoffs in 2009. ... The Jaguars aren't particularly awful in any phase of the game, but neither are they outstanding, and that won't get you far in the NFL. A lot is riding on QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew. The defense lacks impact players at this point.
WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Diego*, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City
Fast fact: Another 1,000-yard season for Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson will catapult him to seventh all-time on the NFL career rushing list.
The king: The aforementioned LT is healthy, and so is rush LB Shawn Merriman. The Chargers clearly are the class of a week division, and their offense - behind QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates and RBs Tomlinson and Darren Sproles - should be one of the league's best. Merriman's presence and pass rush makes the entire defense more effective. The evidence? The Chargers' sack total dropped from 42 to 28 and interceptions went from 22 to 8 last season.
The others: The season can't start soon enough for Denver, which improved its chances for having a better ground game by signing LaMont Jordan and Correll Buckhalter and drafting Knowshawn Moreno. That's offset by dealing QB Jay Cutler. The defense ranked in the bottom eight against both the rush and the pass, so there is work to be done. ... The Raiders followed up one of the more baffling drafts in recent memory by cutting the QB (Jeff Garcia) who clearly gave them the best chance to win. JaMarcus Russell would have to make huge strides for Oakland to be competitive. On defense, the Raiders have to improve the NFL's second-worst run defense. ... Two seasons in a row the Chiefs have traded an impact player. Last season it was DE Jared Allen. This past offseason it was TE Tony Gonzalez. The result has been a bunch of extra draft picks and QB Matt Cassell. Kansas City will be very young at most positions.
Here is a look at each of the AFC's four divisions (*denotes playoff team)
EAST
Predicted order of finish: New England*, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo
Fast fact: Miami LB Jason Taylor needs eight sacks to move into the top 10 all-time in league history
The king: Much has been made of the return of Brady from a knee injury, but a bigger storyline in New England could be the extreme makeover of the defense. DE Richard Seymour, LBs Mike Vrabel, Rosevelt Colvin, Junior Seau and Teddy Bruschi, S Rodney Harrison and CB Ellis Hobbs all are gone. One guess is Coach Bill Belichick ultimately realized his defense needed to get faster (and younger). Remember, too, that the Pats have more high draft choices over the next two seasons than anyone as a result of trades of Seymour, Hobbs, Vrabel and QB Matt Cassell. The Brady-led passing game should be as potent as ever with the addition of WR Joey Galloway and RB Fred Taylor - two veterans itching for a Super Bowl ring.
The others: It says here Miami's rise from worst to first in the East was no fluke. The Dolphins were in the top 15 in the league in both defense and offense. The Chad Pennington-led offense was surprisingly balanced. And RB Ronnie Brown experienced a rebirth, thanks in part to the Wildcat formation. If the pass defense improves, the Dolphins could again hang with the conference's elite. ... The Jets have the potential to be a very good team, but they need a lot of things to come together - one more season from RB Thomas Jones, a quick integration of rookie QB Mark Sanchez into the offense, a receiver to step up, and the defense to take to new coach Rex Ryan's aggressive scheme. The latter shouldn't be a problem, but New York might have some problems scoring points unless some playmakers emerge. ... So the Bills added WR Terrell Owens, fired their offensive coordinator for being too creative in his play calling and completely rebuilt their offensive line, again. Oh, and their best offensive player - RB Marshawn Lynch - is suspended for the first three games. This doesn't sound like a winning formula.
NORTH
Predicted order of finish: Pittsburgh*, Baltimore*, Cincinnati, Cleveland
Fast fact: No team can match the Steelers' six Super Bowl victories.
The king: Pittsburgh can play it any way you want it thanks to a punishing defense, an underrated passing attack, a variety of running backs and a quarterback who appears to be a supersized version of John Elway. Ben Roethlisberger might not always put up the best numbers, but his flair for winning games in the final minutes certainly reminds me of the former Broncos great. The Steelers return largely intact, and it bears remembering that they had to overcome several key injuries last season, so they might be stronger this go around.
The others: I don't see a sophomore slump for Ravens QB Joe Flacco, and I do see a group of running backs that have pushed each other to be better. Much like the Jets, the Ravens need a young receiver to emerge to make Flacco's life a bit easier. The defense again should be stout, although losing coordinator Rex Ryan and LB Bart Scott to the Jets will hurt. The departure of stud offensive lineman Jason Brown didn't get as much attention but is equally important to Flacco and the offense. ... Cincinnati is mentioned as a darkhorse team by many prognosticators, and there are several reasons for this optimism. First, the return of QB Carson Palmer provides a massive upgrade at that position for an offense that ranked 32nd overall in 2008. Second, the defense continues to add players with plenty of upside through the draft (see LB Rey Maualuga). Third, Laveranues Coles isn't as big of a dropoff at WR from TJ Houshmandzadeh. The Bengals will have to run the ball A LOT better to sniff the playoffs. ... So who is the Browns' quarterback? Who will run the ball for Cleveland? Who will stop the run? The Browns' near-playoff berth two seasons ago looks more and more like a fluke. A return to form by WR Braylon Edwards would help the 31st-ranked passing offense, regardless of whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson is throwing to him.
SOUTH
Predicted order of finish: Tennessee*, Houston*, Indianapolis, Jacksonville
Fast fact: Colts QB Peyton Manning is fourth all-time in TD passes and needs just 10 more to take over third - behind only Dan Marino and Brett Favre.
The king: The Titans won't catch anyone by surprise this season. Despite the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency, Tennessee's 7th-ranked defense should not fall off much. The ground game is in good hands with RBs Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Tennessee really needs rookie WR Kenny Britt to develops into a No. 1 receiver.
The others: Two consecutive 8-8 seasons and a steady influx of talent have me convinced this is the year for the Texans to finally make the playoffs. The key is keeping QB Matt Schaub healthy. Schaub, who has missed an average of five games the past two seasons, has plenty of targets - WRs Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, TE Owen Daniels and RB Steve Slaton. But Schaub doesn't have a quality backup like Sage Rosenfels this season. Houston has an excellent defensive front and a Pro Bowl middle linebacker in DeMeco Ryans. However, the rest of the back half of the defense could be the team's undoing. ... How will the Colts respond to not having Tony Dungy on the sideline and Marvin Harrison split out on offense? The former, as well as some other coaching staff turnover, is a greater concern at this point. It's tough to bet against QB Peyton Manning, but the Colts' ground game and play vs. the run both were near the bottom of the NFL last season. That is not a formula for reaching the playoffs in 2009. ... The Jaguars aren't particularly awful in any phase of the game, but neither are they outstanding, and that won't get you far in the NFL. A lot is riding on QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew. The defense lacks impact players at this point.
WEST
Predicted order of finish: San Diego*, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City
Fast fact: Another 1,000-yard season for Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson will catapult him to seventh all-time on the NFL career rushing list.
The king: The aforementioned LT is healthy, and so is rush LB Shawn Merriman. The Chargers clearly are the class of a week division, and their offense - behind QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates and RBs Tomlinson and Darren Sproles - should be one of the league's best. Merriman's presence and pass rush makes the entire defense more effective. The evidence? The Chargers' sack total dropped from 42 to 28 and interceptions went from 22 to 8 last season.
The others: The season can't start soon enough for Denver, which improved its chances for having a better ground game by signing LaMont Jordan and Correll Buckhalter and drafting Knowshawn Moreno. That's offset by dealing QB Jay Cutler. The defense ranked in the bottom eight against both the rush and the pass, so there is work to be done. ... The Raiders followed up one of the more baffling drafts in recent memory by cutting the QB (Jeff Garcia) who clearly gave them the best chance to win. JaMarcus Russell would have to make huge strides for Oakland to be competitive. On defense, the Raiders have to improve the NFL's second-worst run defense. ... Two seasons in a row the Chiefs have traded an impact player. Last season it was DE Jared Allen. This past offseason it was TE Tony Gonzalez. The result has been a bunch of extra draft picks and QB Matt Cassell. Kansas City will be very young at most positions.
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