How the NFC could shake out in 2012

For every AFC preview, there must be an NFC one! Here is how I project the NFC division races will shake out.

NFC East
Projected finish: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Dallas Cowboys
Going up: Redskins. They will be dramatically improved at the most important position and could have a fairly stout defense again.
Going down: Giants. The champs have nowhere to go but down, and they have not always handled success well.
Summary: I think any team could win this division. The Eagles have the most talent, but their execution and QB Michael Vick's injuries were problematic a year ago. The Cowboys also have a lot of talent, but I question how their lines will hold up over the course of a season. This is the league's toughest division.

NFC North

Projected finish: Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings

Going up: Vikings. They're in rebuild mode, but some of the young players who gained experience last season, notably QB Christian Ponder, should be better.

Going down: Packers and Lions. Green Bay won't go 15-1 again, not even close. Detroit still has no secondary and no offensive line. Not good in a division with QBs Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler, as well as pass rushers extraordinaire Jared Allen, Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews.

Summary: I think the Packers are in much tougher this season. Interesting to me that a 15-1 team is breaking in five new starters. Chicago's defense is due to decline because of age and injuries and it has little in the secondary, but it's offense should be dynamic. Any of the top three teams could win this highly competitive division.

NFC South

Projected finish: Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Bucs

Going up: Panthers. If their defense improves a reasonable amount, they have the talent on offense to hang with Atlanta and New Orleans.

Going down: Saints. At some point not having a coach, GM and defensive captain has to catch up to them. 

Summary: Atlanta is supposed to be good every year, and this one is no exception. But at some point the Falcons need to have a run in the playoffs. The Saints could win the Super Bowl or be 8-8. Was 2010's 10-6 record a mirage for the Bucs? Or are they closer to last season's team that ended the year with 10 consecutive losses.

NFC West

Projected finish: Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams

Going up: Seahawks. Two good options at quarterback -- Matt Flynn and Russell Wilson -- which is two more than they had last season. Who they will throw to is the major question. The defense and run game are sound and they enjoy a very good home-field advantage.

Going down: 49ers. They're probably going to make the playoffs again, but it's tough for me to see Alex Smith having another nearly mistake-free season and their injury-prone RBs staying healthy. A strong defense got career years from everyone in their secondary. I know the Niners are good, but I question if they can sustain it.

Summary: If you could combine the Cardinals receivers with the Rams RBs, you might have a pretty good offense. These two seem a notch below the Seahawks and Niners.

How the 2012 NFL season might work out - AFC preview

I know, it's been a while. Let's just call it an extended hangover from the Packers' Super Bowl victory in 2011.

I think it's high time to resume NFL blogging, so let's start with how I see the AFC division races breaking down this season. Every year there are surprise teams, and I'm sure this year won't be any exception. Educated guesses as to whom they will be are the best I can offer.

AFC East
Projected finish: New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins
Going up: Bills. Buffalo should have a stout defense, and if RB Fred Jackson is healthy enough weapons on offense.
Going down: Jets. I don't see this offense working. What are they? Ground and pound team? Vertical passing team?
Summary: It seems as if the Patriots have won this division every season for two decades. The Dolphins will have a decent defense but RB Reggie Bush would have to be the second coming of Barry Sanders for their offense to have a chance.

AFC North
Projected finish: Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns
Going up: Ravens. Yes, their LB corps are depleted a bit with Terrell Suggs' injury and Jarrett Johnson's FA departure, but they still have a lot of talent on that side of the ball and a versatile offense with several playmakers. A Super Bowl is not out of the question.
Going down: Steelers. Age on defense and injuries at several key positions (NT, RB to name two) is not a good combination. Pittsburgh needs a RB to emerge and good health along its lines. I realize it's a risk to underestimate the Men of Steel.
Summary: Ohio's teams won't crack the top two unless the front-runners have major injuries. Can the Bengals sustain their momentum? Cincy has a lot of solid pieces, particularly on defense and with the QB-WR combo of Andy Dalton-AJ Green. Browns fans should prepare for another housecleaning. Rookie RB Trent Richardson would need to rush for 1600 yards for them to have a chance at a wild-card berth. This is the conference's strongest division.

AFC South
Projected finish: Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts
Going up: Titans. RB Chris Johnson bounces back and QB Jake Locker develops, giving Tennessee a wild-card berth.
Going down: Texans. But they still probably win the division despite some FA losses on the O-line.
Summary: I think Houston ultimately will win this division, but every team behind them should be better, and in the cases of Jacksonville and Indianapolis, a lot better. In fact, if QB Blaine Gabbert develops and RB Maurice-Jones Drew emerges from his holdout funk, the Jags could make some noise. They have much better weapons at WR than a year ago. The Colts had a lot of systemic changes, particularly on defense, and I don't know if they have the right parts to make it work.

AFC North
Projected finish: Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers
Going up: Chiefs. A run of injuries to star players cost them the division last season, and the combination of better health and better depth means they take it this year.
Going down: Chargers. Where will they be better than last season? Pass rush, maybe. Their lines are in tough shape. RB Ryan Mathews is hurt again. And their WRs have a lot to prove.
Summary: The Chiefs get the nod based on stability and my projection that they can't possibly be as devastated by injuries as they were in 2011. Peyton Manning will help the Broncos, but I think they overachieved last year. The Raiders' season comes down to RB Darrin McFadden's health and QB Carson Palmer bouncing back to the level he has demonstrated he can play at in the past.

2010 NFL season: How were our AFC predictions?

Each fall I predict the outcomes of each NFL division. Previously, I posted on my picks for the NFC's four divisions compared to those in three major NFL annuals - Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News and Pro Football Weekly/Yahoo.

What follows are the outcomes of the AFC predictions:

AFC East
Actual: New England, NY Jets, Miami, Buffalo
Bayee: NY Jets, New England, Miami Buffalo
SI: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
TSN: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
PFW: NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
The winner is: No one and everyone. The Jets ultimately knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs, but nobody expected a 14-2 Pats regular season.

AFC North
Actual: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati
Bayee: Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
SI: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland
TSN: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland
PFW: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland
The winner is: SI, which also predicted the Steelers will win the Super Bowl.  At least the other publications had the sense to pick a playoff team - the Ravens - in first. Not me. I fell for the Bengals. In a season of bad predictions, that was my worst.

AFC South
Actual: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee
Bayee: Houston, Indy, Tennessee, Jacksonville
SI: Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville
TSN: Indy, Tennessee, Houston, Jacksonville
PFW: Indy, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville
The winner is: All three publications got the Colts right, and everyone was wrong on the Jaguars. I take small consolation in having Tennessee third.

AFC West
Actual: Kansas City, San Diego, Oakland, Denver
Bayee: San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
SI: San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Kansas City
TSN: San Diego, Kansas City, Oakland, Broncos
PFW: San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Oakland
The winner is: No one. TSN at least had the Chiefs second, while SI picked them last. PFW had Denver second. Obviously the Chargers were heavy favorites.

Biggest surprises: Kansas City and Jacksonville
Biggest disappointments: San Diego, Houston and Cincinnati

One interesting note - each of the three NFC disappointments (San Francisco, Dallas and Minnesota) changed coaches during the season. Not only did the three AFC disappointments keep their coaches all season, they kept them for next season (though Houston overhauled its defensive staff).

2010 NFL season: How were our NFC predictions?

Some of the more fun posts to write each season are the looks back at how several major publications as well as myself fared in our preseason picks.

My three for comparison's sake are Sports Illustrated, Sporting News' annual (which incorporated Street and Smith's a few years back) and Pro Football Weekly, which has teamed with Yahoo Sports!

NFC East
Actual order: Philadelphia, NY Giants, Dallas Washington
Bayee: NYG, Dallas, Philly, Wash.
SI: NYG, Dallas, Philly, Wash.
TSN: Dallas, NYG, Philly, Wash.
PFW: Dallas, NYG, Wash., Philly
The winner is: No one. No one saw Philly (or Michael Vick) emerging, nor Dallas imploding under coach Wade Phillips. Washington (bad) and the Giants (decent) were about what was expected.

NFC North
Actual order: Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota
Bayee: Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago
SI: Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit
TSN: Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit
PFW: Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit
The winner is: No one. No one picked the Bears higher than third (I had them fourth, but I did see the Lions improving more than others). No one saw the Vikings' meltdown coming either. And no one could have imagined the nightmare season Brett Favre (and those close to him) endured.

NFC South
Actual: Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Carolina
Bayee: New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay
SI: New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
TSN: Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay
PFW: Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay
The winner is: TSN and PFW came closest here, nailing the first- and second-place teams. NO ONE saw the Bucs' dramatic improvement coming. And I'm sure SI would like its pick of the Panthers (whom the magazine projected would make the playoffs) back.

NFC West
Actual: Seattle, St. Louis, San Francisco, Arizona
Bayee: San Fran, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
SI: San Fran, Seattle, Arizona, St. Louis

TSN: San Fran, Arizona, St. Louis, Seattle
PFW: San Fran, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
The winner is: Well, someone had to win this division. This division's imploding team was the 49ers, closely followed by the Cardinals. SI tabbed the Seahawks second, and no one saw the Rams as anything but a cellar dweller (or close).

Biggest surprise team: Bears
Biggest disappointment: Take your pick - Cowboys, Vikings or 49ers

Michael Vick tells us what has made the difference for him this season

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Michael Vick thought it was all over last summer, just one year after his release from prison. His second chance might be his last.

What could have been destructive instead laid the foundation for Vick's return to NFL stardom and the Philadelphia Eagles' ascent to one of the NFC's elite teams.

So what's up with Jeff Fisher and the Titans?

The NFL's current longest-tenured coach speaks out about the Tennessee Titans' crazy season, which has included Cortland Finegan's on-field fight with Andre Johnson, the acquisition of Randy Moss and quarterback Vince Young's latest meltdown.

What makes the Steelers tick?

In a recent article I wrote for NFL.com, Pittsburgh wide receiver Hines Ward spells out why the Steelers are playing so well this season and shares his thoughts on the exodus of hitting in the pro game.

NFL Week 2 Snap Judgements

A review of the week that was and a preview of the upcoming weekend in the NFL.

Unfortunately, we were subjected to yet another week of off-the-field distractions dominating the headlines rather than what most fans want to read/hear about -- the games that count.

I'm not going to dive into the topic of whether female reporters should be in the locker room other than to say I think there should not be locker room access for any members of the media. Period. Have another area where the media can mingle with and interview players once they're off the field. Unless a player is receiving medical treatment, make it mandatory that all players at least make an appearance. I think it's a good compromise -- players get their sanctuary back, can shower and dress without cameras, mics and notebooks in their way, and the media gets wider access and hopefully, more cooperative players.

A few Week 1 impressions:
The two loudest teams (literally) during the offseason were the Jets and the Bengals. Neither had what could deemed a stellar opening game. Cincinnati was thrashed by the Patriots (why do we ever doubt the power of the hoodie?), while the Jets self-destructed vs. an equally aggressive Ravens team. Given that the teams swap opponents this week, I will be very interested to see what changes they make. For the Jets, it's simple -- don't shoot yourself in the foot with penalties and try to establish some sort of offensive rhythm. I don't think QB Mark Sanchez and RB Shonn Greene are as bad as they looked, but both are second-year players and might not be quite ready to be the men in Gotham. ... The Bengals have to rediscover their defense. Remember, for all the hype around the addition of Terrell Owens, it was Cincinnati's defense that allowed it to run the table in the AFC North last season.

Injury bug
Each year, the focus on injuries seems brightest after the first week, and this year has been no exception. The list of players who went down is staggering and could have wide-ranging impact on several teams perceived to be among the league's elite.

How do the Packers overcome the loss of RB Ryan Grant? The Jets' NT Kris Jenkins? The Colts S Bob Sanders? And how long will the Eagles be without new starting QB Kevin Kolb and MLB Stewart Bradley, the fulcrum of their defense?

I think the loss of Grant is going to force the Packers' hand to get another running back, an assertion more than one of my NFL.com colleagues disagreed with me about this week. I am not convinced Brandon Jackson can stay healthy, and I highly doubt either of the two rookies in the mix (practice squad refugee Dmitri Nance and PUP list resident James Starks) will contribute a lot in coach Mike McCarthy's multi-look offense.

Sanders has played barely a full season's worth of games combined during the past three seasons, so it's not as if Indy hasn't faced this before. Plus the Colts have the capable Mevlin Bullitt in the wings. The Jets survived Jenkins' loss last season, though it's a tough pill spill to swallow when someone who worked as hard as he did to get back goes down again.

Speaking of Jenkins, it had to be a brutal weekend for the Jenkins family. First DE Cullen injures his hand and has to play with it wrapped in a "club" for the Packers on Sunday. Then Kris, who considered retiring early in the offseason but worked his way back from a torn ACL, goes down to the same injury in the first half of the first game of the season.

A look at Week 2:
As previously noted, I think the Bengals-Ravens AFC North clash and the Jets-Patriots AFC East battle are the two games of the week with the farthest-reaching impacts. I also think the Bengals will find a way to win, but the Jets won't. ... The Steelers-Titans game in Tennessee also will have some effect on the AFC playoff race down the road as both teams should at least be in the mix for a wild-card spot. How will Pittsburgh's veteran defense (a polite way of saying older) handle the speed of QB Vince Young and RB Chris Johnson? Keep in mind the Steelers struggled at home against an average Falcons defense, which is another reason I like the Titans in this one.

A few other division winners from a season ago had better find ways to win -- chiefly San Diego, Dallas, Minnesota and Indianapolis, each of whom could start 0-2, making it far tougher to reach the playoffs, particularly since several division rivals have "homecoming games" this weekend.

The Cowboys and Colts have the most to lose with a loss because they play in stronger divisions and already have lost intradivisional games. Getting OLs Kyle Kosier and Marc Columbo back certainly will help the Cowboys against the Bears, and I think the Cowboys' coverage can handle the Bears' passing game much better than the Lions did. ... The Colts entertain the Giants in Manning Bowl 2, and both teams are coming off mixed performances. The Colts had the misfortune of having theirs come against a tougher team on the road (the Texans). I don't like where the Colts are on both lines, and the Giants are a tough matchup for them. Indy will have its hands full covering the Giants' myriad of targets and containing its running game, so I see the Colts losing again. As I stated in my AFC preview, I think this is the year the Colts fall off. ... The Vikings looked old against the Saints, but they're at home and have had 10 days to recover. Their opponent, the Dolphins, struggled against the Bills. The Vikings are decimated at WR, so this will be the game for RB Adrian Peterson to impose his will. ... The Chargers -- who will be blacked out in Southern California because they did not sell out -- looked out of sorts vs. the Chiefs. The Jaguars come to town fresh off a victory over the Broncos, but Jacksonville has not traveled well to the West and is flying coast to coast on Saturday. Even if San Diego, which needs to consider signing LT Marcus McNeill asap, loses, it's not the end of the world because the AFC West probably could be won with a 9-7 record. Still, this doesn't look like on the Chargers should lose.

Last call
Patriots QB Tom Brady called out New England fans for leaving early during the blowout of the Bengals in Week 1, saying he's sure Jets fans won't do that in New York this week. Ouch. ... In a related note, many wonder why Los Angeles doesn't have an NFL team. Well, take a look to the south, where San Diego is a multi-time AFC West winner and conference powerhouse loaded with talent. The Chargers can't sell out their home opener. It's not because of the opening loss to the Chiefs either. The Bolts obviously have a low season-ticket base. California as a whole, but Southern California in particular, is a fickle sports market for any team not named the Lakers.

2010 NFC Predictions

Better late than never, here is one way the NFC could shake out during the 2010 NFL season.

East - NY Giants, Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington
Comment: Last season was a blip on the radar for the Giants, and I think a healthy defense will fix many of their 2009 problems. One concern is their aging o-line, but they have a versatile offense that can hurt teams on the ground or through the air. ... Same concern for the Cowboys - will the o-line hold up? I like the Dallas D, and I think the passing game should be spectacular if QB Tony Romo remains upright. ... Too many changes in Philly for the Eagles to contend. They took a massive risk trading Donovan McNabb within the division, and it may well cost them a playoff spot. The key question is can they gel? ... I like many of the Redskins' moves, particularly bringing in McNabb and turning over an aging, ineffective roster, but they appear to be a year away.

North - Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago
Comment: This is based upon two factors - the Packers' continued development of their young players and the Vikings' over-reliance on a QB (Brett Favre) who won't come close to duplicating his magical 2009 season. ... The Packers' offense should be near unstoppable. Two concerns are a porous secondary and horrendous special teams. If those are average, they're going deep in the playoffs. ... Losing WR Sidney Rice robs Favre of one of his safety valves. But Favre probably will take a month or so to get in sync after again missing most of camp. The defense should be strong, but there are concerns on the corner in a pass-heavy division. ... I love the Lions' offseason signings, and they appear to have had another excellent draft. I don't think 6-7 wins are out of the question. ... The Bears, conversely, did almost nothing to address their issues (secondary, o-line, front office). Signing DE Julius Peppers got a lot of attention, but I actually think RB Chester Taylor could do more to help the Bears this season. Chicago's problem is most of their best players now are 30 or older.

South - New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay
Comment: If the Saints improve their defense at all, they're going to be there right at the end again. Their offense is lethal. ... The Falcons are primed to make the playoffs, but can they get past the Saints? Much of the answer hinges on their improvement on defense. ... The Panthers still have passing game concerns, and now they won't have LB Thomas Davis (knee injury) and DE Julius Peppers (free agency) on defense. I don't see the leap for them that many predict. ... The Bucs had a good draft. They need two more. Their defense will have to be incredible to make up for a lackluster offense.

West - San Francisco, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
Comment: More questions than answers. ... Can the 49ers pass the ball? How do the Cardinals replace QB Kurt Warner, WR Anquon Boldin, LB Carlos Dansby, and S Antrel Rolle? How far will positive reinforcement from new coach Pete Carroll take the Seahawks, who have fallen behind in the talent department? Will rookie QB Sam Bradford remain upright in St. Louis? ... The 49ers have the defense and running game to win what again will be the NFL's weakest division. The Cardinals still have a lot of talent, but they need a lot to go right to compete for a playoff spot. The Seahawks just don't have elite talent any more, and if you monitor many of their moves, it seems they've figured out they need to rebuild. The Rams are slowly getting some of the pieces to compete ... some day.

2010 AFC Predictions

Better late (or early in this case) than never.

Here is how I see each division shaking out during the 2010 NFL season with a comment after each.

AFC
East - NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
Comment: I see flaws with every team in this division, and I think it will be a dogfight between the top three teams. I considered going with the Dolphins, but I'm reading about too many injuries and external problems to pick them in good conscience now. ... If Mark Sanchez is average at QB, the Jets (whom I think are overrated a bit ) could win. But they need RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson to come up big. ... The Patriots have talent, but have the look of a team in transition. I expect them to play better as the season goes along. ... Ditto the Bills, who will rely heavily on their running game.

North - Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
Comment: Tough call again between the top two teams but I went with the Bengals because I don't see a weak position group on that team, and the Ravens' secondary concerns me quite a bit. ... With all the talk of the Dynamic Duo at WR for the Bengals, the real pressure is on Carson Palmer to produce at QB. He play has slipped the past few years due to injury and inaccuracy. If rebounds, the Bengals could go deep in the playoffs. ... The Ravens have all of the ingredients save for a secondary to also enjoy January (and perhaps February) games. Their offense should be among the league's best, and their front seven on defense remains top-notch. ... I think the Steelers will really struggle without suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger  for the first month of the season. I also am not sold on their offensive line or cornerbacks. They've turned over a fair amount of their roster the past two years and their younger players must play well now or it could be another 8-8 season. ... The Browns have more stability in the front office (Mike Holmgren) and under center (Jake Delhomme), but injuries on defense will hurt early on. Tough to see them doing very well in a stacked division this year.

South - Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville
Comment: The Colts have to fall off some year, and I think this is it. ... The Texans have the pieces for an explosive offense, and they've drafted a lot of talent on defense. If the latter gels and they can win their Week 1 matchup with the Colts, I see not only a division title, but possibly a playoff win in the cards. ... The Colts' lines scare me. Peyton Manning appeared more frustrated during preseason than I've ever seen him (not just about the placement of umpires), and their o-line didn't protect him well vs. vanilla defenses. The frequency of injuries to top players on defense - DE Dwight Freeney and S Bob Sanders - has to be a concern given their ages. ... The Titans are a trendy pick to re-emerge as a contender, but defenses will key on RB Chris Johnson a lot more. So it falls on QB Vince Young to develop into the elite QB his talent indicates he can. If that happens, the Titans could break through. ... The Jaguars have enough talent to be a tough out vs. any opponent, but sustaining a high level of play has been the challenge for them over the past few years.

West - San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
Comment: This will be a very interesting division to follow, and probably not because it will house a truly great team. ... The Chargers have lost a lot of talent - RB LaDainian Tomlinson, LT Marcus McNeill, WR Vincent Jackson, CB Antonio Cromartie, and NT Jamal Williams to name five past Pro Bowl picks - since the 2009 season ended and appear to be heading back to the pack. Perhaps they know something we don't and they have talent ready to replace that quintet. ... The Raiders added quite a bit - QB Jason Campbell, MLB Rolando McClain come to mind - to an underrated group of youngsters. The biggest plus might be coaching stability this season.... The Chiefs seem to be on the same upward track as the Raiders, but perhaps one step behind in the talent department. ... The Broncos traded their best offensive player (WR Brandon Marshall) and lost their best defensive player (sackman Elvis Dumervil) to a season-ending injury in camp. Their top  RB (Knowshown Moreno) is injured and his backup (Correll Buckhalter) has had as many knee surgeries as some team. If last season's second-half implosion, things could spin out of control at an altitude of one mile pretty quickly.

Welcome back football, now listen up

College and high school football have begun in force, and the NFL kicks off for real on Thursday, so that means it's time for my football blog to return for its fifth season in this forum.

Before I post my season previews and compare my predictions to some major publications', I'd like to address the major topic that is hanging over this season -- a potential lockout by owners in early 2011.

As wonderful as it is to have football back, can you imagine a fall without the NFL? One would have to go back to 1987 to find the last labor disruption in the league. The only good thing that came out of that was Saints coach Sean Payton, who was one of the replacement players hired to play that season.

The dynamics of the game have changed immeasurably since -- look no further than the amounts of money involved in contracts, television, stadiums and merchandise. The NFL is king of the sporting universe, and nothing else is even close.

Do you think for a moment that a group of players with short shelf lives are going to throw away a year with this amount of moolah at stake?

Do you think owners, many of whom now are leveraged more than ever in a down economy because of building new stadiums, are going to say no to all that revenue their new palaces generate?

Here are three areas I think need to be addressed that will benefit both sides.

1. Safety: Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs states, in effect, that this at near the top of the "need" list for most people (after food, water and sleep). The NFL is taking some good steps in examining equipment, treatment and rules to make the game safer.

But there is much more to it than this. Given the onslaught of retired players with serious medical woes vocalizing their displeasure (and I think they have a point), the league and union could/should come together on a more comprehensive post-playing health insurance plan. Typically, this would be a union responsibility, but given the money both parties make, I believe it should be a joint effort.

It also should not be free. Ex-players should pay a reasonable premium, just as the rest of us do, but their policies should take into account the physical punishment they endure. There is enough money out there now to get this off the ground. Perhaps take a small percentage of players' salaries to fund it for their futures.

I sense that many players adopt the mindset of getting whatever they can when they can because no one really has their backs. Perhaps this would help address that, or maybe the next item would.

2. Guarantee contracts and pay bonuses based upon individual and team performance. Signing bonuses are guaranteed money (which is why they've exploded in recent years), but the standard player contract isn't. Contracts are guaranteed in the NBA, NHL and Major League Baseball, but not in the most violent sport - football. This always has struck me as odd.

Owners would argue that guarantees will remove incentives to play hard. This is where performance bonuses come in. Say the team reaches certain plateaus of success, everyone on the team gets a bonus based upon their playing time. Add some individual statistical bonuses, but make them a fraction of the team and playing time bonuses.

In theory, owners should love this because they're paying for performance. Players should love it because if they sign a contract, they're guaranteed a certain amount of money.

An added benefit is this would reign in many teams who spend wildly, make mistakes, then spend wildly again. Most teams probably would be more cautious about the amount and the duration of contracts they offer. Maybe 2- to 3-year deals would become the norm. That could work both ways for players. Not happy with your contract, you're only a year from being able to sign a new one for potentially a lot more money. Injured in the final year of your contract, at least you'd have health insurance and be better equipped to work your way back. Have a huge year while being underpaid? Payday is right around the corner.

I believe it would reward players who work hard and teams that do their homework. Those who don't would at least not be rewarded.

3. Rookie salary scale. Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford could end up being good quarterbacks. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are great quarterbacks. So why are Bradford and Stafford in the same salary neighborhood?

This comes back to paying the players who have proven themselves. I'm not for slotting salaries by pick or round drafted because the draft is a hugely inexact science. But having ranges for rookies, perhaps a rookie signing pool based upon the number of picks a team has.

Based upon all that I've read and heard, I'd be willing to bet some semblence of this appears in the next labor deal.

3b. Expanded regular season. If it happens, two things need to happen - player compensation has to increase and rosters need to expand, or at least practice squads do. The owners would get more TV revenue with two more "meaningful" games, so the players should as well.

These are giant issues for the King Kong of all sports leagues.

So will a lockout happen? I think it's possible. Will it last into the 2011 season. I doubt it -- there is too much at stake.

Taking a look back at the 2005 NFL Draft

Perhaps you're like me and grow weary of all the "instant analysis" after NFL Drafts.

Winners, losers and grades.

I believe a far more accurate barometer is five years out, and here is why. Five years is approximately two more than the average player's NFL shelf life. Those who have survived five seasons are now working on their second contract in the league and either are cemented as a star, contributor or hanger on.

Here is my look back at the 2005 NFL draft, which on the whole has far more disappointments than top-end players.

First Round (No. indicates overall selection)
Great picks (impact players)
11 - LB DeMarcus Ware, Dallas - Today's prototype speed rusher in the 3-4 alignment
12 - LB Shawne Merriman, San Diego - An impact player when healthy in body and mind
24 - QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay - Could end up with better career stats than the guy he replaced if he keeps this up
27 - WR Roddy White, Atlanta - It took four seasons, but White emerged as a threat when Matt Ryan arrived
32 - G Logan Mankins, New England - A Pro Bowl guard

Good picks (above average starter)
2 - RB Ronnie Brown, Miami - Might be in top category had not parts of three seasons been ended by injury
3 - WR Braylon Edwards, Cleveland - One great season and a lot of question marks
8 - CB Antrel Rolle, Arizona - Good but not good enough to keep apparently
9 - CB Carlos Rodgers, Washington - Undone by injuries
13 - OT Jamaal Brown, New Orleans - One of the anchors of the Super Bowl champs' line
14 - LB Thomas Davis, Carolina - Has made successful transition from S to LB and is one of the Panthers' better defenders, close to a great pick
15 - LB Derrick Johnson, Kansas City - Slow start to his career, but he's making strides
19 - OT Alex Barron, St. Louis - He has started since Day 1 on one of the league's worst lines
26 - C Chris Spencer, Seattle - A solid starting center
28 - DE Luis Castillo, San Diego - Very good at the point of attack and at pressuring the QB
30 - TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh - Good in all phases, a typical solid Steeler pick
31 - DT Mike Patterson, Philadelphia - A disruptive presence inside

Lousy picks
4 - RB Cedric Benson, Chicago - Coming off one good season ... for Cincinnati
5 - RB Carnell Williams, Tampa Bay - Seemed like a risky pick given his size at the time. Can't stay healthy
6 - CB Adam Jones, Tennessee - Super talent and immaturity levels; another Bengals reclamation project
7 - WR Troy Williamson, Minnesota - Four TDs in five seasons and can't crack the Jaguars' shaky receiving core
11 - WR Mike Williams, Detroit - Just wrong on so many fronts; out of the league
16 - DT Travis Johnson, Houston - Looking for a fresh start in San Diego
17 - DE David Pollack, Cincinnati - Injuries ended his career before it started
18 - DE Erasmus James, Minnesota - Forced to retire because of injuries
20 - DE Marcus Spears, Dallas - Has never lived up to the hype but a servicable player
21 - QB Matt Jones, Arkansas - He could run, but he couldn't throw, catch or stay out of trouble
22 - WR Mark Clayton, Baltimore - After a decent second season (67 catches, 5 TDs), he's vanished
23 - CB Fabian Washington, Oakland - Extra DB has bounced around
29 - CB Marlin Jackson, Indianapolis - New Eagle had health issues and never asserted himself in a talented Colts secondary

Maybe they'll work out
1 - QB Alex Smith, San Francisco - He's the starter for now, but it's tough to find anyone who would pick him over Aaron Rodgers at this point.
25 - QB Jason Campbell, Washington - Put Campbell in a stable organization and football staff and he could thrive, but to go from the Redskins to the Raiders, well, not exactly how one would draw it up

Good drafts (team)
Atlanta - WR White, DT Jonathan Babineaux, LB Chauncey Davis, LB Michael Boley (NY Giants) and G Frank Omiyale (Chicago) are contributing in Atlanta or elsewhere.

Dallas - Ware, Spears, RB Marion Barber, DE Chris Canty (NY Giants) and NT Jay Ratliff are starters, and Ware has been defensive MVP

Green Bay - Rodgers and S Nick Collins have made multiple Pro Bowl appearances

New England - Mankins has been to the Pro Bowl and third-round T Nick Kaczur is a starter, as was CB Ellis Hobbs. The steal? QB Matt Cassel with the 230th pick.

N.Y. Giants - CB Corey Webster, DE Justin Tuck and RB Brandon Jacobs in rounds 2, 3, 4

San Diego - Yes, Merriman and Castillo have had injury and consistency problems, but they're above-average starters. This draft also yielded WR Vincent Jackson and RB Darren Sproles.

San Francisco - Get beyond the Smith pick and you find G David Baas, RB Frank Gore, NT Ronald Fields, all very good starters

Mixed bag
Baltimore - They missed on Clayton and DE Dan Cody, but T Adam Terry, C Jason Brown (St. Louis) and QB Derek Anderson (Arizona) were hits

Tennessee - How is this so with the Jones pick, as well as bust WRs Courtney Roby and Brandon Jones? Second-round T Michael Roos and sixth-round TE Bo Scaife are how. Roos might be the best LT in the game

Very bad
Detroit - Mike Williams? Shaun Cody? Career backup QB Dan Orlovsky probably is the highlight.

Buffalo - WR Roscoe Parrish was the top pick, followed by since-paralyzed TE Kevin Everett.

Cincinnati - Pollack suffered a career-ending injury. LB Odell Thurman and the late WR Chris Henry had multiple run-ins with the law and subsequent suspensions. And to think they signed Pacman Jones to a two-year contract.

Denver - CB Darent Williams was shot and killed. RB Maurice Clarett went to prison. CBs Karl Paymah (San Francisco) and Dominique Foxworth (Baltimore) have bounced around the league.

Jacksonville - Jones wasn't good enough to play QB or WR or stay out of trouble with the law. T Khalif Barnes was out of the organization within three years. Third-round pick S Scott Starks is a special teams player.

Minnesota - Not one, but TWO first-round busts (James and Williamson) 

Oakland - Washington, CB Stanford Routt and QB Andrew Walter were the first three picks. LB Kirk Morrison is the only contributor, and if one re-projected this draft he'd have gone in the first round.

It's the End of the 2009 Season as We Know It ...

Congratulations to the Saints and New Orleans on their breath-taking Super Bowl 44 victory.

A few random thoughts on the game, its coverage and the NFL ...

Upon further review, I liked that Saints Coach Sean Payton went for it on fourth-and-goal late in the first half. He looks like a genius today for calling for the onside kick to start the second half. Some coaches talk about having confidence in their players. Payton demonstrated it. ...

Payton Manning is catching a lot of flack today over the fourth-quarter interception that Tracy Porter returned for a touchdown. No question that was one of the game-altering players. However, Manning also engineered a Super Bowl-record, 96-yard touchdown drive on the previous Colts series, and he had the Colts in position for a touchdown immediately after the Saints' pick-six.

Manning, of course, doesn't need me to defend him, but there is plenty of blame to go around in Indy:

• Pierre Garcon not only dropped a key third-down pass that killed a first-half drive, but he committed a red zone penalty late in the fourth quarter.
• Reggie Wayne dropped a touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter. Wayne also was the intended receiver on the pick six, and I wondered aloud if he could have come back for the pass.
  
• The Colts took two other penalties late in the game - one a hold on a kickoff return after Porter's interception return for a touchdown - that cost field position.

...

I have oscillated in my thinking on Deion Sanders' role on NFL Network's usually solid NFL GameDay broadcast.

A few years back, I could neither stand him nor understand him a vast majority of the time.

During the 2008 season, I thought Sanders provided much more insight and intelligent commentary. This past season was another story; I thought he regressed and the show itself lost some luster. He was true to recent form again Sunday night.

Sanders' default now appears to be the need to label most players who commit a postseason turnover a choker - Manning, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers - unless of course that player is Adrian Peterson, whose three touchdowns against the Saints matched his fumbles. (I am of the opinion Peterson's mistakes cost the Vikings a shot at the Super Bowl at least as much as Favre's and probably more).

Sanders' biting remarks - some justified and some not - aren't new. Neither is his overwhelming fixation on money (Pay the man! Don't hurt the money-maker! Blah, blah - insert money, blah).

As a player, I thought Sanders was wildly talented in coverage and very dangerous in the return game, but also something of a front-runner (check out his jumps from team to team).

The money fixation from someone who undoubtedly earned a Brinks truck full of it is puzzling, and it's hurting NFL Network's product. ...

Tough to make out what will happen with the league's labor situation, but you can bet that talk will overshadow everything else during the offseason. I think the NFL HAS to have a new agreement in place before the kickoff of the 2010 season or the specter of a 2011 lockout will cast a pall over the 2010 season. That could result in fan backlash and more less-than-sold-out stadiums (and more blackouts).

I'm also very curious to see how the uncapped year plays out in free agency (which begins less than a month from now), and to a lesser extent in the draft, where rookie money for first-rounders is way out of whack already....

I love pro football, but after what I've seen, heard and experienced in relation to the NFL this past year, maybe a lockout (and severe hit to the bottom line) would be a wake-up call that all parties involved need.

The rhetoric from the players and the owners is tiresome. The constant theme is this: greed.

Week 12 NFL Review

This isn't a full review ... because the game of the week is on Monday night in New Orleans.

Conventional wisdom says watch out for teams who close out the season on a roll. Well, we have five weeks left and three of the hottest teams reside in the AFC - Indianapolis, San Diego and Tennessee each has won five or more games in a row. The similarities end there.

The Colts are 11-0 and seemingly find a new way each week to come back and win. Their AFC South Division brethren, the Titans, have won five in a row ... after starting the season with six consecutive losses. The difference? Would you believe Vince Young, who is playing like the franchise quarterback he was projected to be when he was drafted four years ago.

How quickly things change. One season ago, it was Kerry Collins at the helm, replacing Young and leading the Titans to a 13-3 record. After Collins was unable to lead Tennessee to a victory through the end of October, the Titans made a change (strongly suggested by owner Bud Adams, by the way) after their bye week.

Meanwhile, out West the Chargers (8-3) have bolted to six consecutive victories to overtake the Denver Broncos - they of a 6-0 start - in the division. In the 50th anniversary season of the AFL, the Chargers are turning back the clock and scoring like an AFL team.

The NFC has just two teams on win streaks of four or longer, the 10-1 Vikings and the 10-0 Saints.

The coldest teams? In the NFC, the Bears - once considered an NFC North contender - have dropped four in a row, while the Browns (1-10) have dropped six consecutive in the AFC. Another team that has seen its fortunes go in reverse? Houston (5-6), which has lost three straight and now finds itself in a logjam two games out of the final AFC wild-card spot.

How wild is that?
I have a tough time remembering a season when all eight divisions might be decided before December, but that is what appears to be the case this season. Clearly the wild-card races will be the most competitive.

In the NFC, only the East - where the Cowboys have a one-game lead over the Eagles - is close at the moment. Minnesota has a three-game lead plus a tiebreaker over Green Bay in the North. The Saints have a five-game lead plus a tie-breaker on Atlanta in the South. And the Cardinals have a two-game lead over San Francisco in the West. The 49ers, however, could be in business if they keep winning because they face Arizona again and the Cardinals face the red-hot Vikings next week.

In the AFC, the Colts will clinch the South with one more victory. The Bengals swept their division and have a two-game lead plus all tiebreakers in the North. The Chargers are playing almost as well as anyone in the NFL and they hammered their closest pursuer - the Broncos - in Denver in Week 11. Win or lose Monday, the Patriots are in charge in the East, and a win Monday keeps their lead at three.

Top 5/Bottom 5 ... will appear after the Monday Night Game.

Week 9 Around the NFL

Do the owners' really know what they're doing?

This isn't what you think: I'm talking about picking quarterbacks. I'll leave the other stuff to someone else to determine.

You know by now the Cowboys' Jerry Jones (also the team's GM!) and the Redskins' Daniel Snyder are aggressive meddlers, and if you're a fan of either of those teams, you can thank the honchos for Tony Romo and Jason Campbell.

Now comes rumblings that the Glazers want to see first-round pick Josh Freeman start ... and so he will on Sunday vs. the Packers. Nothing against Freeman, who from all appearances is a physical marvel. But he's the team's third starter at the most important position in eight games. If the plan was to go with him, then why give Josh Johnson four games as starter? Or why sign Byron Leftwich and then banish him to the bench after three games? What's going on here?

Next up is Titans owner Bud Adams, who a few weeks back mentioned he'd like to see Vince Young start for the then 0-6 Titans after their bye week. Young's problems and personality quirks have been well-documented, but lo and behold Young played last week and the Titans got their first win of the season. Adams, the man who moved his franchise from Houston to Nashville (only to see the NFL place an expansion team in Houston, which now has a beautiful new stadium that Adams apparently couldn't get), must know something about QBs.

In the weeds
Take this to the bank. There will be some team in the middle of the pack right now that makes a move to not only earn a playoff spot and win at least one playoff game. A couple of AFC teams in that category can take big first steps in that direction in Week 9.

Some candidates:
Miami, which plays the Patriots. The Dolphins are 3-4, but have won three of their past four. All three wins came in the AFC East, including two vs. the New York Jets (4-4). A win at New England would position the Dolphins well to make a run at the AFC East. ...

Baltimore, which travels to Cincinnati. The Ravens (4-3) lost to the Bengals in the last minute of their Week 5 game at Baltimore. The next week, the Ravens missed a last-second field goal at the Metrodome that could have send Minnesota to its first loss. If Baltimore wins this game it will tie the Bengals for the AFC North lead. If Pittsburgh wins at Denver on Monday, there would be a three-way tie for first, and the Ravens and Steelers would have two meetings to come.

San Diego, which travels to New York to play the reeling Giants. The Bolts (4-3) are having a lot of problems on defense, due in large part to the season-ending injury to NT Jamal Williams and substandard play from their heralded group of linebackers. However, they're just two games behind the suddenly vulnerable Broncos, who could be 6-2 by the time Week 10 rolls around. Yes, Denver won at San Diego, but don't count the Chargers out just yet.

Top 5:

• 1. New Orleans (7-0) - Trap game vs. somewhat resurgent Panthers on Sunday.
• 2. Minnesota (7-1) - Late bye week and a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way sets up the Vikings for a deep playoff run.
• 3. Indianapolis (7-0) - Injuries on defense are bound to catch up with them sooner than later, quite possibly vs. Houston this week.
• 4. Philadelphia (5-2) - Interesting game vs. Dallas this week. Eagles can establish themselves as the NFC East front-runner with consecutive victories over Giants and Cowboys.
  
• 5. New England (6-2) - Patriots show signs of dominance at times, and the late bye also helps them. Must beat Miami at home this weekend.

Also considered: Houston (5-3), Pittsburgh (5-2), Cincinnati (5-2), Dallas (5-2), Denver (6-1)

Bottom 5 (tough to limit it to five this season):

• 28. St. Louis (1-7) - The Rams get two weeks to enjoy their victory.
• 29. Oakland (2-6) - The Raiders appear to quit at times, yet they're capable of beating the Eagles? This team should have its own category.
• 30. Detroit (1-6) - You lose to the Rams at home, and you get a permanent 2009 spot in this category.
• 31. Cleveland (1-7) - Derek Anderson is playing as badly as any QB I've ever seen. Oh, and they don't have a GM for some reason now.
• 32. Tampa Bay (0-7) - As if things weren't bad enough, they're hauling out the Creamsicle uniforms this weekend.

Also considered: Kansas City (1-6), Washington (2-5), Seattle (2-5), Tennessee (1-6).

Week 5 NFL Review

Several observations from Sunday's NFL games ...

Don't look now, but the Bungles, I mean Bengals, are 4-1. Their lone loss was to the unbeaten Broncos on a play we might not see replicated for another 10 years.

They added a win over the Ravens on Sunday to one over the Steelers and one over the Packers. Cincinnati also has defeated the Browns, meaning that five weeks into the season the Bengals not only have a one-game lead in the NFC North, but they have defeated every team in their division already.

In addition to another round vs. the Ravens (home) and Steelers (road), the Bengals have dates remaining against the Vikings, Bears, Jets and Chargers. However, they also play the Browns again, and have dates against the Raiders, Chiefs, Lions and Texans. So not only is 9-7 likely, with another couple of wins vs. better teams on their remaining schedule, the Bengals realistically could finish 11-5.

GAME OF THE WEEK?
I was ready to tear FOX a new one when I discovered their No. 1 announcing team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman was calling the Chiefs-Cowboys game (or Dallas Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys in the retro uniforms). The game turned out to be one of the few watchable ones on a Sunday full of annihilations. But initially I wanted to jump all over the network for putting the St. Louis-based Buck and the Dallas-based Aikman on that game rather than the promising 49ers-Falcons game. (What, do these guys have travel clauses in their contracts?). Who knew the Texans, er Chiefs, would take the Cowboys to overtime?

OH YEAH
I can't remember a season when there have been five undefeated teams this far into the season, and as the Patriots found out on Sunday, the Broncos are for real. The Giants, Vikings and Colts defeated three of the NFL's worst teams (a large group this year, more on this in a bit), and the Saints had the weekend. It is highly unlikely I will be writing about five undefeated teams next Sunday because the Giants travel to New Orleans. The Giants haven't been tested for a few weeks, so I'm curious to see how they fare against the Saints.

OH NO
Conversely, I can't remember a season when there were so many awful teams. I told a family member Friday that I believe a handful of the worst of the worst - the Rams, Raiders, Chiefs, Browns, Bills and Bucs - will only win when they play each other. The Raiders' only win was vs. the Chiefs, and the Browns won their first game Sunday, 6-3, vs. the Bills. The Titans, now 0-5, are close to joining that club no matter how good I think they could have been. And even though the Panthers got in the win column Sunday, they were not impressive vs. the Redskins. Washington, by the way, has only played winless teams this season. Sure the Redskins are 2-3, but they look impotent on offense. So that is nine teams (and I suspect there are a few others out there who have fooled us with a few wins) that basically can forget about it this season. And we're in Week 5.

YUCK!
I thought the Seattle Seahawks' "unwanted popsicles" uniforms in Week 3 were the most hideous I'd ever seen ... until Sunday. The Denver Broncos' brown and yellow uniforms, complete with vertically striped socks, rate even higher on the awful meter. Popsicles I can stomach, striped turds I can't.

NFC WORST?
All four NFC West teams had home games Sunday, and results were mixed. ... The Rams (again) looked awful and are 0-5 after getting hammered by the Vikings. But the other doings in the NFC West on Sunday made it a race after all. ... First, the front-running 49ers (3-2) got their hats handed to them by the Falcons, 45-10, at home. My guess - Mike Singletary doesn't give the Niners a day off from practice during their upcoming bye week. ... Next, the Arizona Cardinals held on to beat the Houston Texans (the current Texans, that is) with a goal-line stand. This of course was after the Birds blew a 21-point halftime lead. ... Then Seattle welcomed Matt Hasselbeck back by pounding visiting Jacksonville. (Jovy, this was for you. Quit hassling me about the Hawks for a few weeks would ya)

NFL Week 5 Preview

Ever wonder if maybe an assistant had more to do with a team's success than a head coach did?

I've pondered this in light of some fall-offs by a couple of teams recently.

Exhibit A: The Titans
While many plan Tennessee's defensive plunge (and it's a big one) on the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth, remember that Haynesworth had an uneven career with the Titans (injuries, suspensions, lackadaisical play mixed with sheer dominance). More of a constant was coordinator Jim Schwartz, who led the Lions to their first victory in two seasons an clearly has instilled a new attitude in the Motor City.

Exhibit B: The Cardinals
Arizona lost Todd Haley when the Chiefs hired the offensive coordinator to be their new head coach, and the Cards fired defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast, who then re-joined Haley in KC. The result - the Cards come out of the bye week 1-2 and appear to have some serious problems on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are in total rebuild mode so it's tough four games in to evaluate the success/failure of the former Birds assistants.

Exhibit C: The Jaguars
In 2007, Jacksonville nearly defeated then-unbeaten New England in the playoffs, and my guess is their physical style gave the Giants plenty to prepare for in the subsequent Super Bowl. Assistant Mike Smith becomes the Falcons coach, and thanks to his addition and that of QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner, the Dirty Birds turn it around. The Jags, meanwhile, sank to last in the AFC South with a 5-11 record.

GAMES OF THE WEEK
We have a couple of what I like to call "sort out" games on tap Sunday. First, Atlanta (2-1) travels to San Francisco (3-1), second, New England (3-1) visits Denver (4-0) and finally Cincinnati (3-1) travels to Baltimore (3-1).

The Falcons appear to be a much better indoors team than outdoors team, and in their loss to the Patriots in Week 3 New England played them physically. That is the formula I expect San Francisco to once again embrace. A loss would drop the Falcons two games behind the Saints in the NFC South, an intraconference loss could haunt the Birds in tiebreaker scenarios. The 49ers can solidify their hold on what again appears to be a very weak NFC West.

Are the Broncos for real? We'll know for sure this week. After a diet of Cincinnati (which appears decent at 3-1), Cleveland (0-4), Oakland (1-3) and Dallas (shaky 2-2), the Patriots come to town fresh off two consecutive triumphs over previously undefeated teams (Atlanta and Baltimore). Denver's defense has been thoroughly impressive, and I think they could give the Patriots a lot of problems. New England also won't have injured RB Fred Taylor, who has appeared to be their steadiest option in the ground game. But can the Broncos score any points against New England?

I'm not surprised Baltimore and Cincinnati are 3-1. Joe Flacco's progression in his second season has been impressive (kudos to coach John Harbaugh and coordinator Cam Cameron) for the Ravens, and the return of Carson Palmer at QB has helped balance the Bengals' offense a bit more. We know Baltimore has a terrific defense, but Cincinnati has quietly built a sturdy one as well. When was the last time this game was for the NFC North lead?

Many of the other games this week appear to be mismatches, but I'm sure there will be at least one surprise. I could see Dallas stumbling at Kansas City or the unbeaten Colts losing at Tennessee. Should the Titans lose, their season would effectively be over at 0-5. A lot depends on the health of the Titans secondary.

TOP FIVE
1. New Orleans (4-0) - Life's a Brees when you have a bye
2. Indianapolis (4-0) - I don't doubt Peyton Manning no matter how many injuries the Colts have
3. N.Y. Giants (4-0) - Battling through a ton of injuries, but the one to Eli could be costly
4. Minnesota (4-0) - As much as I hate to admit it, if this team fixes a few things look out
5. Denver (4-0) - That's D as in Denver
(I know the four unbeaten teams, it's lame). Others receiving votes: New England (3-1), Chicago (3-1), Baltimore (3-1), Philadelphia (2-1), Atlanta (2-1)

BOTTOM FIVE
32. Cleveland (0-4) - It doesn't matter who the QB is, who will he throw to?
31. St. Louis (0-4) - Just bad in all three phases of the game, and undisciplined on top of it.
30. Kansas City (0-4) - They could regret giving Cassel that longterm contract so quickly
29. Tampa Bay (0-4) - Showed a pulse vs. the Redskins
28. Oakland (1-3) - Commitment to ineptitude continues
Others receiving votes: Carolina (0-3), Tennessee (0-4), Seattle (1-3), Washington (2-2)

Week 4 Review

Say this for the New England Patriots, they are tough to beat at home.

For the second consecutive week the Pats knocked off an undefeated team in Foxboro, Mass. Last week it was the Atlanta Falcons, this week the Baltimore Ravens. New England also regained a share of first place in the AFC East when the New York Jets fell at New Orleans.

However, the Pats were "this close" to possibly losing thanks to a costly fourth-down drop inside the 10 by Ravens receiver Mark Clayton. And despite the two home victories, New England could not run the ball against Baltimore and QB Tom Brady was good, but not great, although he did spread the ball around to nine different receivers.

Losses by the Jets and Ravens left just five teams undefeated (Indianapolis, Denver, New York Giants, New Orleans and Minnesota - which plays Green Bay in the Brett Favre Bowl on Monday night).

Oh Yeahs
Of those unbeaten teams, is there one that stands out to you? How about surprises you?

There are several who surprise me, starting with Denver. I was ready to use the weak opponent argument against the Broncos, but they've handed the surprising Bengals their only loss and Dallas is not a pushover. But the surprise of surprises? 26, as in just 26 points allowed ... for the season.

For all of the controversy the Broncos endured over rookie Coach Josh McDaniels' courtship of Matt Cassel, the Jay Cutler trade and the Brandon Marshall preseason suspension, it's the defense that has carried the day. With the San Diego Chargers banged up at 2-2 and sinking like a rock in the AFC West, the Broncos probably could go .500 the rest of the way and win the division. ...

I'm not surprised the Vikings are unbeaten (easy schedule), nor the Giants (just plain good), nor am I the Colts are (I will not doubt Payton Manning). The Saints are a mild surprise to me because they've knocked off tough Philadelphia (road) and Jets (home) squads. But the Broncos - that's one that I (and many others didn't see coming).

Oh no's
There also are six winless teams and seven more that are 1-2 or 1-3. That's 13 teams who have a very tough road to making the playoffs. Is parity dead?

The winless include: St. Louis, Cleveland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Carolina and Tennessee. None of the first four surprise me, but I expected more from Carolina, which appears out of sync on offense and susceptible to the run on defense. And I fully expected Tennessee to contend for the AFC South title. Already trailing the Colts by four games, the Titans can forget that and focus on a wild-card berth, or maybe just winning a game! Most shocking about Tennessee's fall? The defense, which has given up the fifth-most points.

Week 3 review, part 1

Some random thoughts about Week 3 through Sunday night's game.

Was Super Bowl 43 a fluke? Of course that's an exaggeration, but both the Steelers and the Cardinals are 1-2 and looking nothing like postseason powerhouses.

Two weeks in a row the Steelers have had the tables turned on them after their dramatic Week 1 OT win. First the Bears marched down the field to beat the Steelers, then the Bengals did on Sunday.

Some commentators have pointed out that the Steelers' slide coincides with safety Troy Polamalu's injury, but Polamalu was hurt midway through the Week 1 game vs. the Titans and Pittsburgh managed to win that one.

Arizona has lost twice at home, including Sunday night's beatdown at the hands of the Colts, and nothing appears to be working for the Cardinals right now. Most alarming for Cards fans has to be Kurt Warner's statue-esque pocket poses. The veteran QB, who was unconscious in Week 2, absorbed numerous hits and sacks vs. the Colts' fleet front line. And against a banged-up Colts secondary This is a very bad sign for the birds heading into their bye week.

Road warriors: How good are the Colts? They come back to beat the Dolphins on Monday night in Miami - a game that saw the Dolphins win the time of possession battle by a 3-to-1 margin - then return to the road three time zones west and drill the Cardinals.

Turn back the clock: In an online column in another location (which I hopefully can reveal this week) I predicted this might be the week the Vikings needed Brett Favre to step up. Step up he did. Favre passed for more than 300 yards and threw a game-winning dart to Greg Lewis in the final seconds to lift Minnesota over San Francisco.

Remember the roar: December 2007. 21 months ago. Until Sunday, that was the most recent time the Lions had won a football game. Detroit held off a reeling Redskins team to win for the first time in 20 games. Much was made of it being the first career NFL victory for Matthew Stafford and Coach Jim Schwartz. But it's also the first NFL win for Detroit's second-year players, like running back Kevin Smith, who was a key to the Lions win.

2008 playoff teams in big trouble: In addition to the Steelers and Cardinals at 1-2, AFC division winners Miami and Tennessee are 0-3.

Fashion police: So whose idea was it to dress the Seahawks like those Popsicles that everyone leaves in the bottom of the box because they're not sure what flavor they are? Seattle's lime green jerseys are undoubtedly the worst NFL jersey I've ever seen in four decades of NFL watching.

TOP FIVE
1. NY Jets (3-0) They have smacked around New England and Tennessee (which won 24 games combined last season) in consecutive weeks
2. New Orleans (3-0) Won the second of back-to-back road games with defense and a ground game, which is a scary thought
3. Indianapolis (3-0) Who says Peyton Manning doesn't have enough weapons?
4. NY Giants (3-0) Dominating despite injuries
5. Baltimore (3-0) Feasting on cupcakes

Also receiving votes: Minnesota, Philadelphia, New England

BOTTOM FIVE
28. Washington (1-2) It could get ugly in the nation's capital after the Lions won for the first time in 20 games at the Redskins' expense
29. Kansas City (0-3) After a promising first game, the Chiefs have regressed more each week
30. St. Louis (0-3) Rams offense showed a pulse once Kyle Boller came in at QB
31. Tampa Bay (0-3) Five first downs - the entire game - vs. a banged-up Giants team
32. Cleveland (0-3) Point differential after three games? 66 points

Also receiving votes: Miami, Tennessee, Houston, Carolina (all of which I though could be playoff teams)

2009 NFL Week 2 preview

There weren't many surprises in Week 1 of the NFL season, but I expect there to be several this week. There are a number of enticing match-ups, including:

• Carolina at Atlanta
• New England at the NY Jets
• Oakland at Kansas City
• NY Giants at Dallas
• Seattle at San Francisco
• Indianapolis at Miami
• New Orleans at Philadelphia
• Baltimore at San Diego
• Pittsburgh at Chicago

The common thread with the first five is they all are divisional matchups. The next three are intra-conference games that likely will have bearing on the playoff picture, and the final game matches two franchises with passionate followings and high expectations.

The intra-division clashes

• Carolina at Atlanta - Was last week's meltdown at home vs.the Eagles a sign of things to come for the Panthers or a factor of five turnovers? The Falcons capitalized on four uncharacteristic Dolphins turnovers last week. Atlanta can establish itself as the South's front-runner with a win here, while a Panthers loss would raise more questions.
  
• New England at the NY Jets - Let the smack talk flow. The Jets made a strong opening statement at Houston last week, while the Patriots looked mortal vs. the Bills. New England's defense absorbed another hit when LB Jerod Mayo suffered a knee injury. Can the Jets slow the Patriots' passing attack? That's a key question, the answer to which will help determine the AFC East's early leader.
  
• Oakland at Kansas City - Two 0-1 teams? Important game? Yes. Both looked surprisingly good in Week 1 losses, and both could have pulled off upsets. (I think both will as the season progresses) How QBs JaMarcus Russell of the Raiders and Matt Cassell (making his Chiefs debut) play are key. One of these teams can keep itself in the AFC West conversation.
  
• NY Giants at Dallas - The House That Jerry Built opens, and the schedule makers didn't do Jones or his Cowboys any favors by bringing the Giants to town. I'm curious how the Cowboys offense will do against a much stiffer defense this week.
  
• Seattle at San Francisco - The 49ers might be for real. They took the Cardinals apart in Arizona, and the could do the same in their home opener. Tough to get a read on the Seahawks. They played good, but not great, against the Rams last week. Seattle needs to establish its ground game, something Arizona couldn't or wouldn't do.

The Intra-Conference battles

• New Orleans at Philadelphia - Put Donovan McNabb under center for the Eagles, and I think they would win. However, he's out. Fortunately for Kevin Kolb, the Saints don't have much of a pass rush. Philly's defense played well vs. Carolina in forcing five turnovers, but the Saints have far more firepower than the Panthers. That's the matchup to watch.
• Baltimore at San Diego - I think these are two teams with a lot to prove. Baltimore's offense impressed vs. the Chiefs, but it's defense clearly was not itself and let the Chiefs stay in their game. The Chargers could have (and probably should have) lost at Oakland. The Bolts' offensive line and backfield are banged up.
  
• Indianapolis at Miami - The Dolphins committed a very uncharacteristic four turnovers in losing at Atlanta, while the Colts did what they needed to to beat the Jaguars at home. Neither were impressive. A Miami loss will put it two games back of either the Jets or Patriots. The Colts need someone not named Reggie Wayne to step up in the passing game.

And finally ...
The three of the past four seasons have featured either Pittsburgh or Chicago in the Super Bowl. The Bears are stinging from a road loss to the rival Packers, while the Steelers are stinging from a physical overtime win over the Titans on opening night. So this should be another black and blue game, right? Not necessarily. The Steelers had a 2-1 pass to run ratio (47-23) in their opener, while the Bears had 38 passes and 31 rushes. Which team will generate more pressure and have better coverage?