Thursday, July 24, 2008
Taking a look at the AFC North
A look at the AFC North as training camp begins
(Teams are listed in alphabetical order)
BALTIMORE RAVENS
2007 record: 5-11
Camp opens: July 23
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, chance of sun
The Ravens sustained two huge losses in the offseason due to retirements - QB Steve McNair and LT Jon Ogden. Both are Hall of Fame candidates and were leaders for the Ravens. Rookie Joe Flacco, second-year man Troy Smith and veteran Kyle Boller will battle to replace McNair. Though the head coach changed, the defense's aggressive style won't because coordinator Rex Ryan was retained. New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will maximize RB Willis McGahee's talents.
The Nevermore Cry Will Go Out If: None of the three candidates emerges at quarterback and injuries beset TE Todd Heap and the secondary again.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
2007 record: 7-9
Camp opens: July 27
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, chance for sun
The Bengals again invested heavily in defense in the draft and free agency, but they also lost two of their better players as UFAs (DE Justin Smith and S Madieu Williams). Given their defense was 27th last season, maybe that's not bad. Now that WR Chad Johnson says he'll play in Cincinnati this season, the Carson Palmer-directed passing game again should be potent. Three of the top four running backs battled serious injuries last season, and Rudi Johnson seems to have slowed.
It Will Get Muggy in the Jungle If: The defense - particularly against the pass - again struggles and the passing game has to do it all for the offense.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
2007 record: 10-6
Camp opens: July 23
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
Optimism is running high in Cleveland, and with good reason. Derek Anderson emerged at QB, Jamal Lewis re-emerged at RB, and WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow stayed healthy and proved they have the talent to join the elite classes at their positions. Add an improving line and WR Donte' Stallworth to the mix and firepower shouldn't be the problem. Defense, however, was in 2007. The Browns also added DTs Shaun Rodgers (a beast when motivated) and Corey Williams via trades. Dealing CB Leigh Bodden in the Rodgers deal might haunt them if Rodgers plays as he has the past few seasons in Detroit.
It Will Be a Long Winter on the Lake If: Anderson falls off and backup Brady Quinn isn't ready and the Browns get off to a slow start because of their brutal schedule.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2007 record: 10-6
Camp opens: July 27
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
The Steelers, particularly QB Ben Roethlisberger, were better than expected under new coach Mike Tomlin last season. Now the expectations have been raised, and most would consider Big Ben among the league's elite QBs. The offense should be fine with a fleet of emerging receivers and the addition of rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall to Speedy Willie Parker. The linebacking core again should be excellent. However, this team is not as deep as Steelers teams of the past, particularly along the lines. Losing All-Pro G Alan Faneca in free agency will really hurt.
The Three Rivers Will Freeze Over If: There are a lot of injuries, especially on either line, and the team can't navigate the league's toughest schedule.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Taking a look at the AFC East
A look at the AFC East as training camp opens
(teams listed in alphabetical order)
BUFFALO BILLS
2007 record: 7-9
Open camp: July 25
The Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance for sunshine.
The Bills can't be racked by injuries as they were last season (17 players finished the season on IR), can they? Drafting WR James Hardy will help take some heat off Lee Evans, and the continued maturation of RB Marshawn Lynch and QB Trent Edwards should help improve an offense that was ranked 30th overall last season. If offseason acquistion DT Marcus Stroud is healthy and rookie CB Leodis McKelvin makes a seemless transition to the NFL, the defense should be even better.
It Will Be a Long Winter If: Neither Edwards nor JP Losman can inject any life into the passing game because Lynch will face stacked defenses.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
2007 record: 1-15
Open camp: July 25
The Forecast: Showers, might be heavy at times.
The Dolphins have nowhere to go but up. However, despite all of the new regime's offseason moves, which included this week's trade of their best player - Jason Taylor - to Washington, there are some serious holes at every skill position. If RB Ronnie Brown is healthy and Ricky Williams bounces back, they could have a decent ground game. The popular line of thinking is they'll play harder and tougher, but this team has a long way to go in upgrading its talent level to compete for a playoff spot.
Board Up the Windows If: The Fish can't run the ball effectively and thus control the clock. Their passing game and defense seem very suspect
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2007 record: 16-0, lost in Super Bowl 42
Open camp: July 21
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
Despite having much of the same personnel as last season's undefeated team, the Patriots aren't drawing nearly the attention that they should, which I think will make them all the more dangerous. Their offense again will be among the league's best, and their defensive line is the NFL's best three-man unit.
There Will Be No Tea Party If: The Patriots can't adequately fill several holes in their secondary and get faster in their back seven on defense.
NEW YORK JETS
2007 record: 4-12
Open camp: July 23
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, with some sun mixed in
The Jets were one of the most aggressive and biggest spenders in free agency. Additions such as G Alan Faneca, T Damian Woody, DT Kris Jenkins and LB Calvin Pace address pressing needs and should tighten a porous run defense and enhance the ground game. Will it be enough to return to the playoffs?
The Subway Won't Be Safe if: All of the money spent in free agency doesn't add 5-6 more wins and neither Kellen Clemens nor Chad Pennington is the answer at QB.
Next: The AFC North
(teams listed in alphabetical order)
BUFFALO BILLS
2007 record: 7-9
Open camp: July 25
The Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance for sunshine.
The Bills can't be racked by injuries as they were last season (17 players finished the season on IR), can they? Drafting WR James Hardy will help take some heat off Lee Evans, and the continued maturation of RB Marshawn Lynch and QB Trent Edwards should help improve an offense that was ranked 30th overall last season. If offseason acquistion DT Marcus Stroud is healthy and rookie CB Leodis McKelvin makes a seemless transition to the NFL, the defense should be even better.
It Will Be a Long Winter If: Neither Edwards nor JP Losman can inject any life into the passing game because Lynch will face stacked defenses.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
2007 record: 1-15
Open camp: July 25
The Forecast: Showers, might be heavy at times.
The Dolphins have nowhere to go but up. However, despite all of the new regime's offseason moves, which included this week's trade of their best player - Jason Taylor - to Washington, there are some serious holes at every skill position. If RB Ronnie Brown is healthy and Ricky Williams bounces back, they could have a decent ground game. The popular line of thinking is they'll play harder and tougher, but this team has a long way to go in upgrading its talent level to compete for a playoff spot.
Board Up the Windows If: The Fish can't run the ball effectively and thus control the clock. Their passing game and defense seem very suspect
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2007 record: 16-0, lost in Super Bowl 42
Open camp: July 21
The Forecast: Mostly sunny
Despite having much of the same personnel as last season's undefeated team, the Patriots aren't drawing nearly the attention that they should, which I think will make them all the more dangerous. Their offense again will be among the league's best, and their defensive line is the NFL's best three-man unit.
There Will Be No Tea Party If: The Patriots can't adequately fill several holes in their secondary and get faster in their back seven on defense.
NEW YORK JETS
2007 record: 4-12
Open camp: July 23
The Forecast: Partly cloudy, with some sun mixed in
The Jets were one of the most aggressive and biggest spenders in free agency. Additions such as G Alan Faneca, T Damian Woody, DT Kris Jenkins and LB Calvin Pace address pressing needs and should tighten a porous run defense and enhance the ground game. Will it be enough to return to the playoffs?
The Subway Won't Be Safe if: All of the money spent in free agency doesn't add 5-6 more wins and neither Kellen Clemens nor Chad Pennington is the answer at QB.
Next: The AFC North
Monday, July 21, 2008
Stay tuned for Football 2008
Training camps are starting to open, and with them will come my annual camp previews.
I run down each division, usually one per day. And this year I may experiment with audio analysis.
A few random thoughts ...
I'm fairly certain the NFL can't wait for the focus to be back on the playing field. Another offseason of off-the-field legal woes for its players, and flat out bizarre behavior in some instances must make the stomaches of the league office's inhabitants turn. ... I think we're going to see a more wide-open race for the Super Bowl than in any season in recent memory, and here is why. There are as many as 11 AFC teams with legitimate playoff chances, and probably 8-9 in the NFC. But the top level of teams in the AFC - the Patriots, Colts, Jaguars and Chargers - is extremely impressive. Just below them are the Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Titans. And there are some potential surprise teams lurking in the Bills, Jets and Texans. I expect the AFC North and AFC South to be hotly contested. ... In the NFC, it's possible the four best teams all might reside in the East. I really think any team in the East would win the North, South or West this season. I fully expect three teams from the East to make the playoffs despite their having to play a brutal intradivisional schedule.
Want more clues about the 2008 season? Check back this week and next.
I run down each division, usually one per day. And this year I may experiment with audio analysis.
A few random thoughts ...
I'm fairly certain the NFL can't wait for the focus to be back on the playing field. Another offseason of off-the-field legal woes for its players, and flat out bizarre behavior in some instances must make the stomaches of the league office's inhabitants turn. ... I think we're going to see a more wide-open race for the Super Bowl than in any season in recent memory, and here is why. There are as many as 11 AFC teams with legitimate playoff chances, and probably 8-9 in the NFC. But the top level of teams in the AFC - the Patriots, Colts, Jaguars and Chargers - is extremely impressive. Just below them are the Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Titans. And there are some potential surprise teams lurking in the Bills, Jets and Texans. I expect the AFC North and AFC South to be hotly contested. ... In the NFC, it's possible the four best teams all might reside in the East. I really think any team in the East would win the North, South or West this season. I fully expect three teams from the East to make the playoffs despite their having to play a brutal intradivisional schedule.
Want more clues about the 2008 season? Check back this week and next.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Bye Brett, Why It Makes Sense for the Packers to Move On
I just can't help myself.
But what do you expect from a guy who grew up blocks from Lambeau Field? I have to add two more cents to the Brett Favre drama.
Favre's place in Packers history likely will be secure in the long run regardless of how this unnecessary soap opera of will he or won't he plays out.
I think Favre is being selfish. The Packers have bent over backward for four seasons (or more, who really knows at this point?) to accommodate his decision-making processes. At some point, wisdom dictates you have to move on, particularly with a 38-year-old quarterback in the NFL.
As Dr. Z wrote on SI.com, many are the aged quarterbacks who failed after going to new teams late in their careers - Namath, Unitas, Montana - to name three.
I can't see Favre enjoying near the level of success he has in Green Bay for three simple reasons:
1. Few, if any, teams have the depth of talent at receiver that Packers have.
2. Few, if any, teams will provide him the comfort level with an offense that he enjoys in Green Bay. There is a reason it took him several years to hit his stride under Coach Mike Holmgren and two under Coach Mike McCarthy. It takes time to adjust to new offenses no matter who you are (more on this later).
3. Anything short of a Super Bowl in a new city would be considered a failure, and if Favre thinks he is under the microscope in Green Bay, try New York, Carolina, Washington, Chicago or Minnesota, where teams believe they are one Brett Favre away from w inning it all. This would be incredible pressure.
So what is the Packers' problem with him changing his mind?
Two things.
First, McCarthy tailored the Packers' offense to suit Favre's strengths, which are many. Few can match his arm strength and experience. However, his mobility has declined dramatically in the past 4-5 seasons, and his decision-making often leaves much to be desired. But that's part of the package and most Packers fans gladly have lived with the picks as well as the wins. ... When Favre retired, changed his mind, then unchanged his mind in the spring, the Packers had to move forward from a strategy standpoint. That means making the offense more friendly to a younger, more accurate, more mobile but less experienced quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. The Packers spent all of their mini-camps and OTAs implementing changes to enhance Rodgers' skills and mask his deficiencies. Changing everything back is not as easy as it might seem in this era of increasingly complex NFL offenses.
Second, what sort of message does this send the team? That Favre can do whatever he wants? Coach Mike Sherman allowed that, and the result was one of the club's worst seasons ever in 2005. And what sort of message does it send to Aaron Rodgers, who has endured the will he or won't he talk for four years? Rodgers is the present and the future for the Packers under center. To jeopardize that to placate the indecisive Favre and his "fans" is simply stupid from a football standpoint. The Packers must find out what they have in Rodgers. After all, they've invested four seasons in him at this point, and if he leaves after next season and lights it up for another team, it will rank as a bigger waste than paying Brett Favre another $12 million to sit on the bench.
Brett Favre is one of my all-time favorite football players, and that won't change with this episode. I own his jerseys. I own his football cards. However, his selfish or at the least confused attitude has left a bad taste in my mouth.
But what do you expect from a guy who grew up blocks from Lambeau Field? I have to add two more cents to the Brett Favre drama.
Favre's place in Packers history likely will be secure in the long run regardless of how this unnecessary soap opera of will he or won't he plays out.
I think Favre is being selfish. The Packers have bent over backward for four seasons (or more, who really knows at this point?) to accommodate his decision-making processes. At some point, wisdom dictates you have to move on, particularly with a 38-year-old quarterback in the NFL.
As Dr. Z wrote on SI.com, many are the aged quarterbacks who failed after going to new teams late in their careers - Namath, Unitas, Montana - to name three.
I can't see Favre enjoying near the level of success he has in Green Bay for three simple reasons:
1. Few, if any, teams have the depth of talent at receiver that Packers have.
2. Few, if any, teams will provide him the comfort level with an offense that he enjoys in Green Bay. There is a reason it took him several years to hit his stride under Coach Mike Holmgren and two under Coach Mike McCarthy. It takes time to adjust to new offenses no matter who you are (more on this later).
3. Anything short of a Super Bowl in a new city would be considered a failure, and if Favre thinks he is under the microscope in Green Bay, try New York, Carolina, Washington, Chicago or Minnesota, where teams believe they are one Brett Favre away from w inning it all. This would be incredible pressure.
So what is the Packers' problem with him changing his mind?
Two things.
First, McCarthy tailored the Packers' offense to suit Favre's strengths, which are many. Few can match his arm strength and experience. However, his mobility has declined dramatically in the past 4-5 seasons, and his decision-making often leaves much to be desired. But that's part of the package and most Packers fans gladly have lived with the picks as well as the wins. ... When Favre retired, changed his mind, then unchanged his mind in the spring, the Packers had to move forward from a strategy standpoint. That means making the offense more friendly to a younger, more accurate, more mobile but less experienced quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. The Packers spent all of their mini-camps and OTAs implementing changes to enhance Rodgers' skills and mask his deficiencies. Changing everything back is not as easy as it might seem in this era of increasingly complex NFL offenses.
Second, what sort of message does this send the team? That Favre can do whatever he wants? Coach Mike Sherman allowed that, and the result was one of the club's worst seasons ever in 2005. And what sort of message does it send to Aaron Rodgers, who has endured the will he or won't he talk for four years? Rodgers is the present and the future for the Packers under center. To jeopardize that to placate the indecisive Favre and his "fans" is simply stupid from a football standpoint. The Packers must find out what they have in Rodgers. After all, they've invested four seasons in him at this point, and if he leaves after next season and lights it up for another team, it will rank as a bigger waste than paying Brett Favre another $12 million to sit on the bench.
Brett Favre is one of my all-time favorite football players, and that won't change with this episode. I own his jerseys. I own his football cards. However, his selfish or at the least confused attitude has left a bad taste in my mouth.
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
There's Something about Brett
... Brett Favre, that is, that is bothering me.
Is he seriously considering coming back just four months after his tearful departure from the Green Bay Packers and the NFL?
If he is, he's putting the Packers, and himself in a very difficult position.
The Packers have prepared Aaron Rodgers to be Favre's replacement since they drafted him in 2005. He annually has lived through the "will Brett or won't Brett" return talk. This past offseason, Coach Mike McCarthy has tailored his offense to Rodgers' strengths during minicamps, "optional" team activities and one-on-one study.
Should Favre return to the Packers, one could assume that Rodgers will opt to leave (to put it politely) when his rookie contract expires after the 2009 season. A Favre return also would cost the Packers $12 million in salary. ... And there is no guarantee he can replicate his performance of a season ago, which statistically was among his three-best, and victory-wise tied for his best. So there is a great deal of risk for the Packers.
What about Favre? His indecisiveness has dampened some Packers fans' enthusiasm about him. Granted, a large majority would welcome him back with open arms, but his annual flirtations with leaving the game have some fans scratching their cheeseheads. ... In addition to injury, which seems ridiculous to write about a man who didn't miss a game in 16 seasons, Favre faces the prospect of the team not meeting the lofty expectations it would face should he return. Anything less than a Super Bowl would not be satisfactory. ... Then there is family. Favre's stated desire has been to spend more time with his daughters and wife, a cancer survivor.
One more thing. While Favre's body clock might be telling him it's time for training camp, what I heard last spring was, "I am mentally fatigued and not willing to go through the weekly preparation for opponents and deal with the pressure that comes with playing in the fishbowl known as Green Bay." Favre was clear that physically he felt fine. That obviously hasn't changed.
So what's next? Only Favre knows.
Come back, lead the Packers to a Super Bowl, and all of this is moot. Come back and not get there while basically holding the door open for Rodgers to leave creates a problem. Come back with another team, say the quarterback-needy Vikings or Bears, and it might be a nearly unpardonable sin in Packerland. ... Or stay retired and let things run their course.
Favre's place in Packers history is secure, but the final chapter might provide some interesting reading.
Is he seriously considering coming back just four months after his tearful departure from the Green Bay Packers and the NFL?
If he is, he's putting the Packers, and himself in a very difficult position.
The Packers have prepared Aaron Rodgers to be Favre's replacement since they drafted him in 2005. He annually has lived through the "will Brett or won't Brett" return talk. This past offseason, Coach Mike McCarthy has tailored his offense to Rodgers' strengths during minicamps, "optional" team activities and one-on-one study.
Should Favre return to the Packers, one could assume that Rodgers will opt to leave (to put it politely) when his rookie contract expires after the 2009 season. A Favre return also would cost the Packers $12 million in salary. ... And there is no guarantee he can replicate his performance of a season ago, which statistically was among his three-best, and victory-wise tied for his best. So there is a great deal of risk for the Packers.
What about Favre? His indecisiveness has dampened some Packers fans' enthusiasm about him. Granted, a large majority would welcome him back with open arms, but his annual flirtations with leaving the game have some fans scratching their cheeseheads. ... In addition to injury, which seems ridiculous to write about a man who didn't miss a game in 16 seasons, Favre faces the prospect of the team not meeting the lofty expectations it would face should he return. Anything less than a Super Bowl would not be satisfactory. ... Then there is family. Favre's stated desire has been to spend more time with his daughters and wife, a cancer survivor.
One more thing. While Favre's body clock might be telling him it's time for training camp, what I heard last spring was, "I am mentally fatigued and not willing to go through the weekly preparation for opponents and deal with the pressure that comes with playing in the fishbowl known as Green Bay." Favre was clear that physically he felt fine. That obviously hasn't changed.
So what's next? Only Favre knows.
Come back, lead the Packers to a Super Bowl, and all of this is moot. Come back and not get there while basically holding the door open for Rodgers to leave creates a problem. Come back with another team, say the quarterback-needy Vikings or Bears, and it might be a nearly unpardonable sin in Packerland. ... Or stay retired and let things run their course.
Favre's place in Packers history is secure, but the final chapter might provide some interesting reading.
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