Better late than never, here is one way the NFC could shake out during the 2010 NFL season.
East - NY Giants, Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington
Comment: Last season was a blip on the radar for the Giants, and I think a healthy defense will fix many of their 2009 problems. One concern is their aging o-line, but they have a versatile offense that can hurt teams on the ground or through the air. ... Same concern for the Cowboys - will the o-line hold up? I like the Dallas D, and I think the passing game should be spectacular if QB Tony Romo remains upright. ... Too many changes in Philly for the Eagles to contend. They took a massive risk trading Donovan McNabb within the division, and it may well cost them a playoff spot. The key question is can they gel? ... I like many of the Redskins' moves, particularly bringing in McNabb and turning over an aging, ineffective roster, but they appear to be a year away.
North - Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago
Comment: This is based upon two factors - the Packers' continued development of their young players and the Vikings' over-reliance on a QB (Brett Favre) who won't come close to duplicating his magical 2009 season. ... The Packers' offense should be near unstoppable. Two concerns are a porous secondary and horrendous special teams. If those are average, they're going deep in the playoffs. ... Losing WR Sidney Rice robs Favre of one of his safety valves. But Favre probably will take a month or so to get in sync after again missing most of camp. The defense should be strong, but there are concerns on the corner in a pass-heavy division. ... I love the Lions' offseason signings, and they appear to have had another excellent draft. I don't think 6-7 wins are out of the question. ... The Bears, conversely, did almost nothing to address their issues (secondary, o-line, front office). Signing DE Julius Peppers got a lot of attention, but I actually think RB Chester Taylor could do more to help the Bears this season. Chicago's problem is most of their best players now are 30 or older.
South - New Orleans, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay
Comment: If the Saints improve their defense at all, they're going to be there right at the end again. Their offense is lethal. ... The Falcons are primed to make the playoffs, but can they get past the Saints? Much of the answer hinges on their improvement on defense. ... The Panthers still have passing game concerns, and now they won't have LB Thomas Davis (knee injury) and DE Julius Peppers (free agency) on defense. I don't see the leap for them that many predict. ... The Bucs had a good draft. They need two more. Their defense will have to be incredible to make up for a lackluster offense.
West - San Francisco, Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis
Comment: More questions than answers. ... Can the 49ers pass the ball? How do the Cardinals replace QB Kurt Warner, WR Anquon Boldin, LB Carlos Dansby, and S Antrel Rolle? How far will positive reinforcement from new coach Pete Carroll take the Seahawks, who have fallen behind in the talent department? Will rookie QB Sam Bradford remain upright in St. Louis? ... The 49ers have the defense and running game to win what again will be the NFL's weakest division. The Cardinals still have a lot of talent, but they need a lot to go right to compete for a playoff spot. The Seahawks just don't have elite talent any more, and if you monitor many of their moves, it seems they've figured out they need to rebuild. The Rams are slowly getting some of the pieces to compete ... some day.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
2010 AFC Predictions
Better late (or early in this case) than never.
Here is how I see each division shaking out during the 2010 NFL season with a comment after each.
AFC
East - NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
Comment: I see flaws with every team in this division, and I think it will be a dogfight between the top three teams. I considered going with the Dolphins, but I'm reading about too many injuries and external problems to pick them in good conscience now. ... If Mark Sanchez is average at QB, the Jets (whom I think are overrated a bit ) could win. But they need RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson to come up big. ... The Patriots have talent, but have the look of a team in transition. I expect them to play better as the season goes along. ... Ditto the Bills, who will rely heavily on their running game.
North - Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
Comment: Tough call again between the top two teams but I went with the Bengals because I don't see a weak position group on that team, and the Ravens' secondary concerns me quite a bit. ... With all the talk of the Dynamic Duo at WR for the Bengals, the real pressure is on Carson Palmer to produce at QB. He play has slipped the past few years due to injury and inaccuracy. If rebounds, the Bengals could go deep in the playoffs. ... The Ravens have all of the ingredients save for a secondary to also enjoy January (and perhaps February) games. Their offense should be among the league's best, and their front seven on defense remains top-notch. ... I think the Steelers will really struggle without suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first month of the season. I also am not sold on their offensive line or cornerbacks. They've turned over a fair amount of their roster the past two years and their younger players must play well now or it could be another 8-8 season. ... The Browns have more stability in the front office (Mike Holmgren) and under center (Jake Delhomme), but injuries on defense will hurt early on. Tough to see them doing very well in a stacked division this year.
South - Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville
Comment: The Colts have to fall off some year, and I think this is it. ... The Texans have the pieces for an explosive offense, and they've drafted a lot of talent on defense. If the latter gels and they can win their Week 1 matchup with the Colts, I see not only a division title, but possibly a playoff win in the cards. ... The Colts' lines scare me. Peyton Manning appeared more frustrated during preseason than I've ever seen him (not just about the placement of umpires), and their o-line didn't protect him well vs. vanilla defenses. The frequency of injuries to top players on defense - DE Dwight Freeney and S Bob Sanders - has to be a concern given their ages. ... The Titans are a trendy pick to re-emerge as a contender, but defenses will key on RB Chris Johnson a lot more. So it falls on QB Vince Young to develop into the elite QB his talent indicates he can. If that happens, the Titans could break through. ... The Jaguars have enough talent to be a tough out vs. any opponent, but sustaining a high level of play has been the challenge for them over the past few years.
West - San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
Comment: This will be a very interesting division to follow, and probably not because it will house a truly great team. ... The Chargers have lost a lot of talent - RB LaDainian Tomlinson, LT Marcus McNeill, WR Vincent Jackson, CB Antonio Cromartie, and NT Jamal Williams to name five past Pro Bowl picks - since the 2009 season ended and appear to be heading back to the pack. Perhaps they know something we don't and they have talent ready to replace that quintet. ... The Raiders added quite a bit - QB Jason Campbell, MLB Rolando McClain come to mind - to an underrated group of youngsters. The biggest plus might be coaching stability this season.... The Chiefs seem to be on the same upward track as the Raiders, but perhaps one step behind in the talent department. ... The Broncos traded their best offensive player (WR Brandon Marshall) and lost their best defensive player (sackman Elvis Dumervil) to a season-ending injury in camp. Their top RB (Knowshown Moreno) is injured and his backup (Correll Buckhalter) has had as many knee surgeries as some team. If last season's second-half implosion, things could spin out of control at an altitude of one mile pretty quickly.
Here is how I see each division shaking out during the 2010 NFL season with a comment after each.
AFC
East - NY Jets, New England, Miami, Buffalo
Comment: I see flaws with every team in this division, and I think it will be a dogfight between the top three teams. I considered going with the Dolphins, but I'm reading about too many injuries and external problems to pick them in good conscience now. ... If Mark Sanchez is average at QB, the Jets (whom I think are overrated a bit ) could win. But they need RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson to come up big. ... The Patriots have talent, but have the look of a team in transition. I expect them to play better as the season goes along. ... Ditto the Bills, who will rely heavily on their running game.
North - Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
Comment: Tough call again between the top two teams but I went with the Bengals because I don't see a weak position group on that team, and the Ravens' secondary concerns me quite a bit. ... With all the talk of the Dynamic Duo at WR for the Bengals, the real pressure is on Carson Palmer to produce at QB. He play has slipped the past few years due to injury and inaccuracy. If rebounds, the Bengals could go deep in the playoffs. ... The Ravens have all of the ingredients save for a secondary to also enjoy January (and perhaps February) games. Their offense should be among the league's best, and their front seven on defense remains top-notch. ... I think the Steelers will really struggle without suspended QB Ben Roethlisberger for the first month of the season. I also am not sold on their offensive line or cornerbacks. They've turned over a fair amount of their roster the past two years and their younger players must play well now or it could be another 8-8 season. ... The Browns have more stability in the front office (Mike Holmgren) and under center (Jake Delhomme), but injuries on defense will hurt early on. Tough to see them doing very well in a stacked division this year.
South - Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville
Comment: The Colts have to fall off some year, and I think this is it. ... The Texans have the pieces for an explosive offense, and they've drafted a lot of talent on defense. If the latter gels and they can win their Week 1 matchup with the Colts, I see not only a division title, but possibly a playoff win in the cards. ... The Colts' lines scare me. Peyton Manning appeared more frustrated during preseason than I've ever seen him (not just about the placement of umpires), and their o-line didn't protect him well vs. vanilla defenses. The frequency of injuries to top players on defense - DE Dwight Freeney and S Bob Sanders - has to be a concern given their ages. ... The Titans are a trendy pick to re-emerge as a contender, but defenses will key on RB Chris Johnson a lot more. So it falls on QB Vince Young to develop into the elite QB his talent indicates he can. If that happens, the Titans could break through. ... The Jaguars have enough talent to be a tough out vs. any opponent, but sustaining a high level of play has been the challenge for them over the past few years.
West - San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City, Denver
Comment: This will be a very interesting division to follow, and probably not because it will house a truly great team. ... The Chargers have lost a lot of talent - RB LaDainian Tomlinson, LT Marcus McNeill, WR Vincent Jackson, CB Antonio Cromartie, and NT Jamal Williams to name five past Pro Bowl picks - since the 2009 season ended and appear to be heading back to the pack. Perhaps they know something we don't and they have talent ready to replace that quintet. ... The Raiders added quite a bit - QB Jason Campbell, MLB Rolando McClain come to mind - to an underrated group of youngsters. The biggest plus might be coaching stability this season.... The Chiefs seem to be on the same upward track as the Raiders, but perhaps one step behind in the talent department. ... The Broncos traded their best offensive player (WR Brandon Marshall) and lost their best defensive player (sackman Elvis Dumervil) to a season-ending injury in camp. Their top RB (Knowshown Moreno) is injured and his backup (Correll Buckhalter) has had as many knee surgeries as some team. If last season's second-half implosion, things could spin out of control at an altitude of one mile pretty quickly.
Saturday, September 04, 2010
Welcome back football, now listen up
College and high school football have begun in force, and the NFL kicks off for real on Thursday, so that means it's time for my football blog to return for its fifth season in this forum.
Before I post my season previews and compare my predictions to some major publications', I'd like to address the major topic that is hanging over this season -- a potential lockout by owners in early 2011.
As wonderful as it is to have football back, can you imagine a fall without the NFL? One would have to go back to 1987 to find the last labor disruption in the league. The only good thing that came out of that was Saints coach Sean Payton, who was one of the replacement players hired to play that season.
The dynamics of the game have changed immeasurably since -- look no further than the amounts of money involved in contracts, television, stadiums and merchandise. The NFL is king of the sporting universe, and nothing else is even close.
Do you think for a moment that a group of players with short shelf lives are going to throw away a year with this amount of moolah at stake?
Do you think owners, many of whom now are leveraged more than ever in a down economy because of building new stadiums, are going to say no to all that revenue their new palaces generate?
Here are three areas I think need to be addressed that will benefit both sides.
1. Safety: Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs states, in effect, that this at near the top of the "need" list for most people (after food, water and sleep). The NFL is taking some good steps in examining equipment, treatment and rules to make the game safer.
But there is much more to it than this. Given the onslaught of retired players with serious medical woes vocalizing their displeasure (and I think they have a point), the league and union could/should come together on a more comprehensive post-playing health insurance plan. Typically, this would be a union responsibility, but given the money both parties make, I believe it should be a joint effort.
It also should not be free. Ex-players should pay a reasonable premium, just as the rest of us do, but their policies should take into account the physical punishment they endure. There is enough money out there now to get this off the ground. Perhaps take a small percentage of players' salaries to fund it for their futures.
I sense that many players adopt the mindset of getting whatever they can when they can because no one really has their backs. Perhaps this would help address that, or maybe the next item would.
2. Guarantee contracts and pay bonuses based upon individual and team performance. Signing bonuses are guaranteed money (which is why they've exploded in recent years), but the standard player contract isn't. Contracts are guaranteed in the NBA, NHL and Major League Baseball, but not in the most violent sport - football. This always has struck me as odd.
Owners would argue that guarantees will remove incentives to play hard. This is where performance bonuses come in. Say the team reaches certain plateaus of success, everyone on the team gets a bonus based upon their playing time. Add some individual statistical bonuses, but make them a fraction of the team and playing time bonuses.
In theory, owners should love this because they're paying for performance. Players should love it because if they sign a contract, they're guaranteed a certain amount of money.
An added benefit is this would reign in many teams who spend wildly, make mistakes, then spend wildly again. Most teams probably would be more cautious about the amount and the duration of contracts they offer. Maybe 2- to 3-year deals would become the norm. That could work both ways for players. Not happy with your contract, you're only a year from being able to sign a new one for potentially a lot more money. Injured in the final year of your contract, at least you'd have health insurance and be better equipped to work your way back. Have a huge year while being underpaid? Payday is right around the corner.
I believe it would reward players who work hard and teams that do their homework. Those who don't would at least not be rewarded.
3. Rookie salary scale. Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford could end up being good quarterbacks. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are great quarterbacks. So why are Bradford and Stafford in the same salary neighborhood?
This comes back to paying the players who have proven themselves. I'm not for slotting salaries by pick or round drafted because the draft is a hugely inexact science. But having ranges for rookies, perhaps a rookie signing pool based upon the number of picks a team has.
Based upon all that I've read and heard, I'd be willing to bet some semblence of this appears in the next labor deal.
3b. Expanded regular season. If it happens, two things need to happen - player compensation has to increase and rosters need to expand, or at least practice squads do. The owners would get more TV revenue with two more "meaningful" games, so the players should as well.
These are giant issues for the King Kong of all sports leagues.
So will a lockout happen? I think it's possible. Will it last into the 2011 season. I doubt it -- there is too much at stake.
Before I post my season previews and compare my predictions to some major publications', I'd like to address the major topic that is hanging over this season -- a potential lockout by owners in early 2011.
As wonderful as it is to have football back, can you imagine a fall without the NFL? One would have to go back to 1987 to find the last labor disruption in the league. The only good thing that came out of that was Saints coach Sean Payton, who was one of the replacement players hired to play that season.
The dynamics of the game have changed immeasurably since -- look no further than the amounts of money involved in contracts, television, stadiums and merchandise. The NFL is king of the sporting universe, and nothing else is even close.
Do you think for a moment that a group of players with short shelf lives are going to throw away a year with this amount of moolah at stake?
Do you think owners, many of whom now are leveraged more than ever in a down economy because of building new stadiums, are going to say no to all that revenue their new palaces generate?
Here are three areas I think need to be addressed that will benefit both sides.
1. Safety: Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs states, in effect, that this at near the top of the "need" list for most people (after food, water and sleep). The NFL is taking some good steps in examining equipment, treatment and rules to make the game safer.
But there is much more to it than this. Given the onslaught of retired players with serious medical woes vocalizing their displeasure (and I think they have a point), the league and union could/should come together on a more comprehensive post-playing health insurance plan. Typically, this would be a union responsibility, but given the money both parties make, I believe it should be a joint effort.
It also should not be free. Ex-players should pay a reasonable premium, just as the rest of us do, but their policies should take into account the physical punishment they endure. There is enough money out there now to get this off the ground. Perhaps take a small percentage of players' salaries to fund it for their futures.
I sense that many players adopt the mindset of getting whatever they can when they can because no one really has their backs. Perhaps this would help address that, or maybe the next item would.
2. Guarantee contracts and pay bonuses based upon individual and team performance. Signing bonuses are guaranteed money (which is why they've exploded in recent years), but the standard player contract isn't. Contracts are guaranteed in the NBA, NHL and Major League Baseball, but not in the most violent sport - football. This always has struck me as odd.
Owners would argue that guarantees will remove incentives to play hard. This is where performance bonuses come in. Say the team reaches certain plateaus of success, everyone on the team gets a bonus based upon their playing time. Add some individual statistical bonuses, but make them a fraction of the team and playing time bonuses.
In theory, owners should love this because they're paying for performance. Players should love it because if they sign a contract, they're guaranteed a certain amount of money.
An added benefit is this would reign in many teams who spend wildly, make mistakes, then spend wildly again. Most teams probably would be more cautious about the amount and the duration of contracts they offer. Maybe 2- to 3-year deals would become the norm. That could work both ways for players. Not happy with your contract, you're only a year from being able to sign a new one for potentially a lot more money. Injured in the final year of your contract, at least you'd have health insurance and be better equipped to work your way back. Have a huge year while being underpaid? Payday is right around the corner.
I believe it would reward players who work hard and teams that do their homework. Those who don't would at least not be rewarded.
3. Rookie salary scale. Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford could end up being good quarterbacks. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees are great quarterbacks. So why are Bradford and Stafford in the same salary neighborhood?
This comes back to paying the players who have proven themselves. I'm not for slotting salaries by pick or round drafted because the draft is a hugely inexact science. But having ranges for rookies, perhaps a rookie signing pool based upon the number of picks a team has.
Based upon all that I've read and heard, I'd be willing to bet some semblence of this appears in the next labor deal.
3b. Expanded regular season. If it happens, two things need to happen - player compensation has to increase and rosters need to expand, or at least practice squads do. The owners would get more TV revenue with two more "meaningful" games, so the players should as well.
These are giant issues for the King Kong of all sports leagues.
So will a lockout happen? I think it's possible. Will it last into the 2011 season. I doubt it -- there is too much at stake.
Friday, May 07, 2010
Taking a look back at the 2005 NFL Draft
Perhaps you're like me and grow weary of all the "instant analysis" after NFL Drafts.
Winners, losers and grades.
I believe a far more accurate barometer is five years out, and here is why. Five years is approximately two more than the average player's NFL shelf life. Those who have survived five seasons are now working on their second contract in the league and either are cemented as a star, contributor or hanger on.
Here is my look back at the 2005 NFL draft, which on the whole has far more disappointments than top-end players.
First Round (No. indicates overall selection)
Great picks (impact players)
11 - LB DeMarcus Ware, Dallas - Today's prototype speed rusher in the 3-4 alignment
12 - LB Shawne Merriman, San Diego - An impact player when healthy in body and mind
24 - QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay - Could end up with better career stats than the guy he replaced if he keeps this up
27 - WR Roddy White, Atlanta - It took four seasons, but White emerged as a threat when Matt Ryan arrived
32 - G Logan Mankins, New England - A Pro Bowl guard
Good picks (above average starter)
2 - RB Ronnie Brown, Miami - Might be in top category had not parts of three seasons been ended by injury
3 - WR Braylon Edwards, Cleveland - One great season and a lot of question marks
8 - CB Antrel Rolle, Arizona - Good but not good enough to keep apparently
9 - CB Carlos Rodgers, Washington - Undone by injuries
13 - OT Jamaal Brown, New Orleans - One of the anchors of the Super Bowl champs' line
14 - LB Thomas Davis, Carolina - Has made successful transition from S to LB and is one of the Panthers' better defenders, close to a great pick
15 - LB Derrick Johnson, Kansas City - Slow start to his career, but he's making strides
19 - OT Alex Barron, St. Louis - He has started since Day 1 on one of the league's worst lines
26 - C Chris Spencer, Seattle - A solid starting center
28 - DE Luis Castillo, San Diego - Very good at the point of attack and at pressuring the QB
30 - TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh - Good in all phases, a typical solid Steeler pick
31 - DT Mike Patterson, Philadelphia - A disruptive presence inside
Lousy picks
4 - RB Cedric Benson, Chicago - Coming off one good season ... for Cincinnati
5 - RB Carnell Williams, Tampa Bay - Seemed like a risky pick given his size at the time. Can't stay healthy
6 - CB Adam Jones, Tennessee - Super talent and immaturity levels; another Bengals reclamation project
7 - WR Troy Williamson, Minnesota - Four TDs in five seasons and can't crack the Jaguars' shaky receiving core
11 - WR Mike Williams, Detroit - Just wrong on so many fronts; out of the league
16 - DT Travis Johnson, Houston - Looking for a fresh start in San Diego
17 - DE David Pollack, Cincinnati - Injuries ended his career before it started
18 - DE Erasmus James, Minnesota - Forced to retire because of injuries
20 - DE Marcus Spears, Dallas - Has never lived up to the hype but a servicable player
21 - QB Matt Jones, Arkansas - He could run, but he couldn't throw, catch or stay out of trouble
22 - WR Mark Clayton, Baltimore - After a decent second season (67 catches, 5 TDs), he's vanished
23 - CB Fabian Washington, Oakland - Extra DB has bounced around
29 - CB Marlin Jackson, Indianapolis - New Eagle had health issues and never asserted himself in a talented Colts secondary
Maybe they'll work out
1 - QB Alex Smith, San Francisco - He's the starter for now, but it's tough to find anyone who would pick him over Aaron Rodgers at this point.
25 - QB Jason Campbell, Washington - Put Campbell in a stable organization and football staff and he could thrive, but to go from the Redskins to the Raiders, well, not exactly how one would draw it up
Good drafts (team)
Atlanta - WR White, DT Jonathan Babineaux, LB Chauncey Davis, LB Michael Boley (NY Giants) and G Frank Omiyale (Chicago) are contributing in Atlanta or elsewhere.
Dallas - Ware, Spears, RB Marion Barber, DE Chris Canty (NY Giants) and NT Jay Ratliff are starters, and Ware has been defensive MVP
Green Bay - Rodgers and S Nick Collins have made multiple Pro Bowl appearances
New England - Mankins has been to the Pro Bowl and third-round T Nick Kaczur is a starter, as was CB Ellis Hobbs. The steal? QB Matt Cassel with the 230th pick.
N.Y. Giants - CB Corey Webster, DE Justin Tuck and RB Brandon Jacobs in rounds 2, 3, 4
San Diego - Yes, Merriman and Castillo have had injury and consistency problems, but they're above-average starters. This draft also yielded WR Vincent Jackson and RB Darren Sproles.
San Francisco - Get beyond the Smith pick and you find G David Baas, RB Frank Gore, NT Ronald Fields, all very good starters
Mixed bag
Baltimore - They missed on Clayton and DE Dan Cody, but T Adam Terry, C Jason Brown (St. Louis) and QB Derek Anderson (Arizona) were hits
Tennessee - How is this so with the Jones pick, as well as bust WRs Courtney Roby and Brandon Jones? Second-round T Michael Roos and sixth-round TE Bo Scaife are how. Roos might be the best LT in the game
Very bad
Detroit - Mike Williams? Shaun Cody? Career backup QB Dan Orlovsky probably is the highlight.
Buffalo - WR Roscoe Parrish was the top pick, followed by since-paralyzed TE Kevin Everett.
Cincinnati - Pollack suffered a career-ending injury. LB Odell Thurman and the late WR Chris Henry had multiple run-ins with the law and subsequent suspensions. And to think they signed Pacman Jones to a two-year contract.
Denver - CB Darent Williams was shot and killed. RB Maurice Clarett went to prison. CBs Karl Paymah (San Francisco) and Dominique Foxworth (Baltimore) have bounced around the league.
Jacksonville - Jones wasn't good enough to play QB or WR or stay out of trouble with the law. T Khalif Barnes was out of the organization within three years. Third-round pick S Scott Starks is a special teams player.
Minnesota - Not one, but TWO first-round busts (James and Williamson)
Oakland - Washington, CB Stanford Routt and QB Andrew Walter were the first three picks. LB Kirk Morrison is the only contributor, and if one re-projected this draft he'd have gone in the first round.
Winners, losers and grades.
I believe a far more accurate barometer is five years out, and here is why. Five years is approximately two more than the average player's NFL shelf life. Those who have survived five seasons are now working on their second contract in the league and either are cemented as a star, contributor or hanger on.
Here is my look back at the 2005 NFL draft, which on the whole has far more disappointments than top-end players.
First Round (No. indicates overall selection)
Great picks (impact players)
11 - LB DeMarcus Ware, Dallas - Today's prototype speed rusher in the 3-4 alignment
12 - LB Shawne Merriman, San Diego - An impact player when healthy in body and mind
24 - QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay - Could end up with better career stats than the guy he replaced if he keeps this up
27 - WR Roddy White, Atlanta - It took four seasons, but White emerged as a threat when Matt Ryan arrived
32 - G Logan Mankins, New England - A Pro Bowl guard
Good picks (above average starter)
2 - RB Ronnie Brown, Miami - Might be in top category had not parts of three seasons been ended by injury
3 - WR Braylon Edwards, Cleveland - One great season and a lot of question marks
8 - CB Antrel Rolle, Arizona - Good but not good enough to keep apparently
9 - CB Carlos Rodgers, Washington - Undone by injuries
13 - OT Jamaal Brown, New Orleans - One of the anchors of the Super Bowl champs' line
14 - LB Thomas Davis, Carolina - Has made successful transition from S to LB and is one of the Panthers' better defenders, close to a great pick
15 - LB Derrick Johnson, Kansas City - Slow start to his career, but he's making strides
19 - OT Alex Barron, St. Louis - He has started since Day 1 on one of the league's worst lines
26 - C Chris Spencer, Seattle - A solid starting center
28 - DE Luis Castillo, San Diego - Very good at the point of attack and at pressuring the QB
30 - TE Heath Miller, Pittsburgh - Good in all phases, a typical solid Steeler pick
31 - DT Mike Patterson, Philadelphia - A disruptive presence inside
Lousy picks
4 - RB Cedric Benson, Chicago - Coming off one good season ... for Cincinnati
5 - RB Carnell Williams, Tampa Bay - Seemed like a risky pick given his size at the time. Can't stay healthy
6 - CB Adam Jones, Tennessee - Super talent and immaturity levels; another Bengals reclamation project
7 - WR Troy Williamson, Minnesota - Four TDs in five seasons and can't crack the Jaguars' shaky receiving core
11 - WR Mike Williams, Detroit - Just wrong on so many fronts; out of the league
16 - DT Travis Johnson, Houston - Looking for a fresh start in San Diego
17 - DE David Pollack, Cincinnati - Injuries ended his career before it started
18 - DE Erasmus James, Minnesota - Forced to retire because of injuries
20 - DE Marcus Spears, Dallas - Has never lived up to the hype but a servicable player
21 - QB Matt Jones, Arkansas - He could run, but he couldn't throw, catch or stay out of trouble
22 - WR Mark Clayton, Baltimore - After a decent second season (67 catches, 5 TDs), he's vanished
23 - CB Fabian Washington, Oakland - Extra DB has bounced around
29 - CB Marlin Jackson, Indianapolis - New Eagle had health issues and never asserted himself in a talented Colts secondary
Maybe they'll work out
1 - QB Alex Smith, San Francisco - He's the starter for now, but it's tough to find anyone who would pick him over Aaron Rodgers at this point.
25 - QB Jason Campbell, Washington - Put Campbell in a stable organization and football staff and he could thrive, but to go from the Redskins to the Raiders, well, not exactly how one would draw it up
Good drafts (team)
Atlanta - WR White, DT Jonathan Babineaux, LB Chauncey Davis, LB Michael Boley (NY Giants) and G Frank Omiyale (Chicago) are contributing in Atlanta or elsewhere.
Dallas - Ware, Spears, RB Marion Barber, DE Chris Canty (NY Giants) and NT Jay Ratliff are starters, and Ware has been defensive MVP
Green Bay - Rodgers and S Nick Collins have made multiple Pro Bowl appearances
New England - Mankins has been to the Pro Bowl and third-round T Nick Kaczur is a starter, as was CB Ellis Hobbs. The steal? QB Matt Cassel with the 230th pick.
N.Y. Giants - CB Corey Webster, DE Justin Tuck and RB Brandon Jacobs in rounds 2, 3, 4
San Diego - Yes, Merriman and Castillo have had injury and consistency problems, but they're above-average starters. This draft also yielded WR Vincent Jackson and RB Darren Sproles.
San Francisco - Get beyond the Smith pick and you find G David Baas, RB Frank Gore, NT Ronald Fields, all very good starters
Mixed bag
Baltimore - They missed on Clayton and DE Dan Cody, but T Adam Terry, C Jason Brown (St. Louis) and QB Derek Anderson (Arizona) were hits
Tennessee - How is this so with the Jones pick, as well as bust WRs Courtney Roby and Brandon Jones? Second-round T Michael Roos and sixth-round TE Bo Scaife are how. Roos might be the best LT in the game
Very bad
Detroit - Mike Williams? Shaun Cody? Career backup QB Dan Orlovsky probably is the highlight.
Buffalo - WR Roscoe Parrish was the top pick, followed by since-paralyzed TE Kevin Everett.
Cincinnati - Pollack suffered a career-ending injury. LB Odell Thurman and the late WR Chris Henry had multiple run-ins with the law and subsequent suspensions. And to think they signed Pacman Jones to a two-year contract.
Denver - CB Darent Williams was shot and killed. RB Maurice Clarett went to prison. CBs Karl Paymah (San Francisco) and Dominique Foxworth (Baltimore) have bounced around the league.
Jacksonville - Jones wasn't good enough to play QB or WR or stay out of trouble with the law. T Khalif Barnes was out of the organization within three years. Third-round pick S Scott Starks is a special teams player.
Minnesota - Not one, but TWO first-round busts (James and Williamson)
Oakland - Washington, CB Stanford Routt and QB Andrew Walter were the first three picks. LB Kirk Morrison is the only contributor, and if one re-projected this draft he'd have gone in the first round.
Monday, February 08, 2010
It's the End of the 2009 Season as We Know It ...
Congratulations to the Saints and New Orleans on their breath-taking Super Bowl 44 victory.
A few random thoughts on the game, its coverage and the NFL ...
Upon further review, I liked that Saints Coach Sean Payton went for it on fourth-and-goal late in the first half. He looks like a genius today for calling for the onside kick to start the second half. Some coaches talk about having confidence in their players. Payton demonstrated it. ...
Payton Manning is catching a lot of flack today over the fourth-quarter interception that Tracy Porter returned for a touchdown. No question that was one of the game-altering players. However, Manning also engineered a Super Bowl-record, 96-yard touchdown drive on the previous Colts series, and he had the Colts in position for a touchdown immediately after the Saints' pick-six.
Manning, of course, doesn't need me to defend him, but there is plenty of blame to go around in Indy:
I have oscillated in my thinking on Deion Sanders' role on NFL Network's usually solid NFL GameDay broadcast.
A few years back, I could neither stand him nor understand him a vast majority of the time.
During the 2008 season, I thought Sanders provided much more insight and intelligent commentary. This past season was another story; I thought he regressed and the show itself lost some luster. He was true to recent form again Sunday night.
Sanders' default now appears to be the need to label most players who commit a postseason turnover a choker - Manning, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers - unless of course that player is Adrian Peterson, whose three touchdowns against the Saints matched his fumbles. (I am of the opinion Peterson's mistakes cost the Vikings a shot at the Super Bowl at least as much as Favre's and probably more).
Sanders' biting remarks - some justified and some not - aren't new. Neither is his overwhelming fixation on money (Pay the man! Don't hurt the money-maker! Blah, blah - insert money, blah).
As a player, I thought Sanders was wildly talented in coverage and very dangerous in the return game, but also something of a front-runner (check out his jumps from team to team).
The money fixation from someone who undoubtedly earned a Brinks truck full of it is puzzling, and it's hurting NFL Network's product. ...
Tough to make out what will happen with the league's labor situation, but you can bet that talk will overshadow everything else during the offseason. I think the NFL HAS to have a new agreement in place before the kickoff of the 2010 season or the specter of a 2011 lockout will cast a pall over the 2010 season. That could result in fan backlash and more less-than-sold-out stadiums (and more blackouts).
I'm also very curious to see how the uncapped year plays out in free agency (which begins less than a month from now), and to a lesser extent in the draft, where rookie money for first-rounders is way out of whack already....
I love pro football, but after what I've seen, heard and experienced in relation to the NFL this past year, maybe a lockout (and severe hit to the bottom line) would be a wake-up call that all parties involved need.
The rhetoric from the players and the owners is tiresome. The constant theme is this: greed.
A few random thoughts on the game, its coverage and the NFL ...
Upon further review, I liked that Saints Coach Sean Payton went for it on fourth-and-goal late in the first half. He looks like a genius today for calling for the onside kick to start the second half. Some coaches talk about having confidence in their players. Payton demonstrated it. ...
Payton Manning is catching a lot of flack today over the fourth-quarter interception that Tracy Porter returned for a touchdown. No question that was one of the game-altering players. However, Manning also engineered a Super Bowl-record, 96-yard touchdown drive on the previous Colts series, and he had the Colts in position for a touchdown immediately after the Saints' pick-six.
Manning, of course, doesn't need me to defend him, but there is plenty of blame to go around in Indy:
- Pierre Garcon not only dropped a key third-down pass that killed a first-half drive, but he committed a red zone penalty late in the fourth quarter.
- Reggie Wayne dropped a touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter. Wayne also was the intended receiver on the pick six, and I wondered aloud if he could have come back for the pass.
- The Colts took two other penalties late in the game - one a hold on a kickoff return after Porter's interception return for a touchdown - that cost field position.
I have oscillated in my thinking on Deion Sanders' role on NFL Network's usually solid NFL GameDay broadcast.
A few years back, I could neither stand him nor understand him a vast majority of the time.
During the 2008 season, I thought Sanders provided much more insight and intelligent commentary. This past season was another story; I thought he regressed and the show itself lost some luster. He was true to recent form again Sunday night.
Sanders' default now appears to be the need to label most players who commit a postseason turnover a choker - Manning, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers - unless of course that player is Adrian Peterson, whose three touchdowns against the Saints matched his fumbles. (I am of the opinion Peterson's mistakes cost the Vikings a shot at the Super Bowl at least as much as Favre's and probably more).
Sanders' biting remarks - some justified and some not - aren't new. Neither is his overwhelming fixation on money (Pay the man! Don't hurt the money-maker! Blah, blah - insert money, blah).
As a player, I thought Sanders was wildly talented in coverage and very dangerous in the return game, but also something of a front-runner (check out his jumps from team to team).
The money fixation from someone who undoubtedly earned a Brinks truck full of it is puzzling, and it's hurting NFL Network's product. ...
Tough to make out what will happen with the league's labor situation, but you can bet that talk will overshadow everything else during the offseason. I think the NFL HAS to have a new agreement in place before the kickoff of the 2010 season or the specter of a 2011 lockout will cast a pall over the 2010 season. That could result in fan backlash and more less-than-sold-out stadiums (and more blackouts).
I'm also very curious to see how the uncapped year plays out in free agency (which begins less than a month from now), and to a lesser extent in the draft, where rookie money for first-rounders is way out of whack already....
I love pro football, but after what I've seen, heard and experienced in relation to the NFL this past year, maybe a lockout (and severe hit to the bottom line) would be a wake-up call that all parties involved need.
The rhetoric from the players and the owners is tiresome. The constant theme is this: greed.
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