Late June and early July is typically the "dead" time in the NFL. The draft and minicamps are over, and training camps don't begin for another month.
So what's a football fan to do?
Read.
The preview publications are beginning to appear, and two of the best year-in, year-out are produced by The Sporting News and Pro Football Weekly.
I like the Sporting News' annual because they utilize beat writers in each city to write the previews. There is no substitute for being there day-in, day-out.
Pro Football Weekly does football, and football only - every week of the season - and their annual is as thorough as you'll find in terms of player rankings.
I'll give special mention to Sports Illustrated, whose online coverage continues to improve, and whose NFL preview has the advantage of coming out at the end of training camp.
So get reading.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Stanley Cup Finals thoughts
It's been a week and a half, and I'm not sure it's sunk in yet - the Anaheim Ducks are Stanley Cup Champions!
This should not come as a shock given their acquisition of defenseman Chris Pronger and the scoring balance and good goaltending they had all season. The Ducks also proved they have much better depth than given credit for.
Make no mistake about it, those who vote for the Conn Smythe Trophy for the playoffs' most valuable player got it right. As good as Pronger, goalie J-S Giguere and centers Andy McDonald, Samuel Pahlsson and Ryan Getzlaf were, Niedermayer was the rudder that steered Anaheim's championship ship. The Ducks' captain consistently settled things down when needed and pushed the tempo when the situation required. Keep in mind, Anaheim won Game 5 in Detroit without Pronger and Game 4 in Ottawa in the Finals without Pronger. A big part of the reason was Niedermayer.
The temptation is bash Ottawa for a poor Finals performance, however, the ineffectiveness of players such as Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley was due in large part to the line of Pahlsson, Rob Niedermayer and Travis Moen. Frankly, the Senators had a lot of others who didn't show up, including defenseman Wade Redden and forward Mike Comrie. In the face of Anaheim's persistent physical play, many Ottawa players grew disinterested in a hurry.
The Finals also should serve to show Senators fans two things: captain Daniel Alfredsson isn't deserving of much of the blame heaped on him, and Mike Fisher is their best two-way player. Had the series gone to six or seven games, a strong case could have been made for Fisher being the Conn Smythe winner. He and Alfredsson and goalie Ray Emery kept the Senators in all but Game 5 of the Finals.
This should not come as a shock given their acquisition of defenseman Chris Pronger and the scoring balance and good goaltending they had all season. The Ducks also proved they have much better depth than given credit for.
Make no mistake about it, those who vote for the Conn Smythe Trophy for the playoffs' most valuable player got it right. As good as Pronger, goalie J-S Giguere and centers Andy McDonald, Samuel Pahlsson and Ryan Getzlaf were, Niedermayer was the rudder that steered Anaheim's championship ship. The Ducks' captain consistently settled things down when needed and pushed the tempo when the situation required. Keep in mind, Anaheim won Game 5 in Detroit without Pronger and Game 4 in Ottawa in the Finals without Pronger. A big part of the reason was Niedermayer.
The temptation is bash Ottawa for a poor Finals performance, however, the ineffectiveness of players such as Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley was due in large part to the line of Pahlsson, Rob Niedermayer and Travis Moen. Frankly, the Senators had a lot of others who didn't show up, including defenseman Wade Redden and forward Mike Comrie. In the face of Anaheim's persistent physical play, many Ottawa players grew disinterested in a hurry.
The Finals also should serve to show Senators fans two things: captain Daniel Alfredsson isn't deserving of much of the blame heaped on him, and Mike Fisher is their best two-way player. Had the series gone to six or seven games, a strong case could have been made for Fisher being the Conn Smythe winner. He and Alfredsson and goalie Ray Emery kept the Senators in all but Game 5 of the Finals.
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Stanley Cup Finals preview
Stop me if this sounds familiar.
A U.S. team from a "non-traditional" hockey market battles a Canadian-based team for the Stanley Cup.
That's been the formula for the past three Finals, with Tampa Bay beating Calgary in 2004, Carolina topping Edmonton in 2006 and Anaheim meeting Ottawa this time around.
And it says here this series, just like the past two Finals, also will go seven games.
What to like about the Ducks: J.S. Giguere took out arguably two of the best goalies in the league this past season in the Western Conference semifinals and finals (Vancouver's Roberto Luongo and Detroit's Dominik Hasek). The Ducks responded to a lot of adversity in the Red Wings series, turning a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 series victory and surviving the suspension of defenseman Chris Pronger in the process. Pronger, Scott Niedermayer, Sean O'Donnell and Francois Beauchemin are a formidable top-four on defense. Center Ryan Getzlaf is becoming a dominant player, and Ilya Bryzgalov is as good a backup netminder as there is in the league.
Cover your eyes Ducks fans: If they take too many penalties, which has been a problem all season and throughout the playoffs. It nearly cost them against Detroit, and Ottawa's special teams might be even better. ... If they suffer any more injuries. Losing F Chris Kunitz hurt, and Niedermayer clearly is ailing.
What to like about the Senators: Top-to-bottom their defense is deeper than the Ducks. Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov are a shut-down pair, while Wade Redden and Tom Preissing offer plenty of offense. Goalie Ray Emery is keeping his emotions in check and emerging as a force (his numbers compare favorably with Giguere's). The top line of Dany Heatley-Daniel Alfredsson-Jason Spezza has been the best line in the playoffs and will cause fits for the Ducks. The Sens' scoring depth is also more balanced than the Ducks.
Don't look now Senators fans: The Ducks' power play will make Ottawa pay for taking penalties. If the Sens come home down 2-0, they're in trouble because Anaheim has proven it can and will win on the road. If the series turns physical, the Ducks rate a big advantage.
And the winner is: Sorry Canada, the Ducks are going to win in six or seven. Giguere is a more sound and experienced goalie than Emery, Pronger and Niedermayer can control the flow of games and the Ducks' physical play will wear out Ottawa, which has faced fewer challenges and nothing close to this caliber of hitting from Pittsburgh, New Jersey or Buffalo.
A U.S. team from a "non-traditional" hockey market battles a Canadian-based team for the Stanley Cup.
That's been the formula for the past three Finals, with Tampa Bay beating Calgary in 2004, Carolina topping Edmonton in 2006 and Anaheim meeting Ottawa this time around.
And it says here this series, just like the past two Finals, also will go seven games.
What to like about the Ducks: J.S. Giguere took out arguably two of the best goalies in the league this past season in the Western Conference semifinals and finals (Vancouver's Roberto Luongo and Detroit's Dominik Hasek). The Ducks responded to a lot of adversity in the Red Wings series, turning a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 series victory and surviving the suspension of defenseman Chris Pronger in the process. Pronger, Scott Niedermayer, Sean O'Donnell and Francois Beauchemin are a formidable top-four on defense. Center Ryan Getzlaf is becoming a dominant player, and Ilya Bryzgalov is as good a backup netminder as there is in the league.
Cover your eyes Ducks fans: If they take too many penalties, which has been a problem all season and throughout the playoffs. It nearly cost them against Detroit, and Ottawa's special teams might be even better. ... If they suffer any more injuries. Losing F Chris Kunitz hurt, and Niedermayer clearly is ailing.
What to like about the Senators: Top-to-bottom their defense is deeper than the Ducks. Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov are a shut-down pair, while Wade Redden and Tom Preissing offer plenty of offense. Goalie Ray Emery is keeping his emotions in check and emerging as a force (his numbers compare favorably with Giguere's). The top line of Dany Heatley-Daniel Alfredsson-Jason Spezza has been the best line in the playoffs and will cause fits for the Ducks. The Sens' scoring depth is also more balanced than the Ducks.
Don't look now Senators fans: The Ducks' power play will make Ottawa pay for taking penalties. If the Sens come home down 2-0, they're in trouble because Anaheim has proven it can and will win on the road. If the series turns physical, the Ducks rate a big advantage.
And the winner is: Sorry Canada, the Ducks are going to win in six or seven. Giguere is a more sound and experienced goalie than Emery, Pronger and Niedermayer can control the flow of games and the Ducks' physical play will wear out Ottawa, which has faced fewer challenges and nothing close to this caliber of hitting from Pittsburgh, New Jersey or Buffalo.
Padres and Brewers and Cubbies (Oh My!)
Caught my first live Major League Baseball of the season this past week at the scenic home of the San Diego Padres and came away with the following impressions of the three teams I watched over consecutive nights.
The hometeam Padres are winning, but beyond their starting pitching it's tough to see that continuing in large doses.
First the good news - the starting pitching for San Diego is good. Chris Young was outstanding in a no-decision against the Chicago Cubs. Seven innings, three hits, one run, 10 strikeouts and one walk. And to think the Rangers traded this guy AND first baseman Adrian Gonzalez in the SAME DEAL. Greg Maddux was decent the next night against Milwaukee until he ran into trouble in the sixth. Now the bad news, the Padres' bullpen lost the game against the Cubs and nearly blew a five-run lead for Maddux the next night.
San Diego also suffers from a lack of offense, especially in the outfield. Jose Cruz Jr. is OK, Mike Cameron is excellent in center field but hitting about .220 with little power and Termell Sledge, he of fun name but no pop, is just minding the store in left until Brian Giles returns. The Padres need to acquire another hitter to stay at or near the top of the NL West.
The Brew Crew (disclaimer here, this is the beloved team of my youth and my mid-life) is a minor surprise as the leaders of the NL Central. And Milwaukee is doing it the old-fashioned way - with the home run. In the tradition of Bambi's Bombers and Harvey's Wallbangers, the Brewers lead the league in dingers, with shortstop JJ Hardy and first baseman Prince Fielder topping the NL charts.
In terms of young talent, particularly in the infield, it's tough to not like the Brewers. Hardy leads the NL in homers and RBI with an average north of .300 and excellent range in the field. Fielder is right behind him in the power departments and is improving in the field. Third baseman Ryan Braun added two RBI and a hit in his MLB debut, and second baseman Rickie Weeks did what a leadoff hitter should, get on base and advance. Right fielder Gabe Gross was a revelation - he hit it hard every time up.
Milwaukee's problem appears to be its pitching, particularly if Ben Sheets can't stay healthy. Dave Bush struggled all night against the Padres, and a five-run fifth staked San Diego to an insurmountable 7-0 lead. Free-agent acquisition Jeff Suppan and holdovers Claudio Vargas and Chris Capuano have been all right, but they have to be better for Milwaukee to entertain playoff aspirations. The good news here is the staff as a whole doesn't walk a lot of hitters.
The Cubs spent a small fortune during free agency (OK, actually quite a large fortune in the offseason) and sit seven games out in a very winnable NL Central. LF Alphonso Soriano helps, and they've got good power at the corners in 1B Derrek Lee and 3B Aramis Ramirez, but beyond that there are some holes in their batting order, too, particularly in the outfield where Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd don't appear to have much left in the tank. Floyd at least offers some pop, but his defense and overall interest appear suspect.
Starting pitcher Jason Marquis was good, and the bullpen was very good, so there could be some hope on Chicago's North Side.
The hometeam Padres are winning, but beyond their starting pitching it's tough to see that continuing in large doses.
First the good news - the starting pitching for San Diego is good. Chris Young was outstanding in a no-decision against the Chicago Cubs. Seven innings, three hits, one run, 10 strikeouts and one walk. And to think the Rangers traded this guy AND first baseman Adrian Gonzalez in the SAME DEAL. Greg Maddux was decent the next night against Milwaukee until he ran into trouble in the sixth. Now the bad news, the Padres' bullpen lost the game against the Cubs and nearly blew a five-run lead for Maddux the next night.
San Diego also suffers from a lack of offense, especially in the outfield. Jose Cruz Jr. is OK, Mike Cameron is excellent in center field but hitting about .220 with little power and Termell Sledge, he of fun name but no pop, is just minding the store in left until Brian Giles returns. The Padres need to acquire another hitter to stay at or near the top of the NL West.
The Brew Crew (disclaimer here, this is the beloved team of my youth and my mid-life) is a minor surprise as the leaders of the NL Central. And Milwaukee is doing it the old-fashioned way - with the home run. In the tradition of Bambi's Bombers and Harvey's Wallbangers, the Brewers lead the league in dingers, with shortstop JJ Hardy and first baseman Prince Fielder topping the NL charts.
In terms of young talent, particularly in the infield, it's tough to not like the Brewers. Hardy leads the NL in homers and RBI with an average north of .300 and excellent range in the field. Fielder is right behind him in the power departments and is improving in the field. Third baseman Ryan Braun added two RBI and a hit in his MLB debut, and second baseman Rickie Weeks did what a leadoff hitter should, get on base and advance. Right fielder Gabe Gross was a revelation - he hit it hard every time up.
Milwaukee's problem appears to be its pitching, particularly if Ben Sheets can't stay healthy. Dave Bush struggled all night against the Padres, and a five-run fifth staked San Diego to an insurmountable 7-0 lead. Free-agent acquisition Jeff Suppan and holdovers Claudio Vargas and Chris Capuano have been all right, but they have to be better for Milwaukee to entertain playoff aspirations. The good news here is the staff as a whole doesn't walk a lot of hitters.
The Cubs spent a small fortune during free agency (OK, actually quite a large fortune in the offseason) and sit seven games out in a very winnable NL Central. LF Alphonso Soriano helps, and they've got good power at the corners in 1B Derrek Lee and 3B Aramis Ramirez, but beyond that there are some holes in their batting order, too, particularly in the outfield where Jacque Jones and Cliff Floyd don't appear to have much left in the tank. Floyd at least offers some pop, but his defense and overall interest appear suspect.
Starting pitcher Jason Marquis was good, and the bullpen was very good, so there could be some hope on Chicago's North Side.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Does the draft matter anymore, Part II
The NHL is one of, if not the toughest, of leagues to follow on draft day unless you are a complete hockey fanatic. The reasons are two-fold. First, the league is drafting 18-year-olds to play in a league that demands physical and emotional maturity, so the timeline for projecting players' ceilings is tricky. And second, the NHL truly is an international league. Last season, nearly one-third of its players hailed from outside North America and Canadian players comprised barely half of its players.
Examing the most successful franchises during the past decade or so reveals some interesting trends. Clubs that I would classify as having sustained success during this time period are Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado and Dallas.
The Red Wings are gunning for their fourth Stanley Cup in the past decade, and they've been largely built through extremely astute drafting. Players such as Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Holmstrom and Pavel Datsyuk all were Wings picks, and many of them were mid-to-low round selections. Detroit won its Cups with three different goaltenders: Mike Vernon (acquired in trade), Chris Osgood (drafted) and Dominik Hasek (free agency). And the franchise has done a good job adding key components through trades (Mathieu Schneider, Chris Chelios, Todd Bertuzzi, Kyle Calder). The Wings also have a talent for resurrecting players' careers after other teams gave up on them (Andreas Lilja, Larry Murphy, Kris Draper, Kirk Maltby, Dan Cleary). Chief among Detroit's talents has been mining Europe for star talent at bargain prices. This combination has made them one of the league's model franchises in terms of personnel.
The Devils also have drafted extremely well (Scott Niedermayer, Martin Brodeur, Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Patrik Elias, Ken Daneyko to name a few), and their acquisition of Scott Stevens through an NHL loophole when St. Louis signed Brendan Shanahan in the early 90s set the tone for the franchise. Like the Red Wings, New Jersey was quick to identify and sign European players who could help them, though the Devils have largely been built on North Americans, particularly U.S. college propects in the past 4-5 years.
The Avalanche reaped the rewards of many high draft choices when the franchise was in Quebec (Joe Sakic, Mats Sundin, Owen Nolan, Eric Lindros). Through trades they turned the disgruntled Lindros into Peter Forsberg and a host of other players. Nolan brought defenseman Sandis Ozolinsh, who was a key to their 1996 Cup. Other draft choices of note include Adam Foote, Adam Deadmarsh, Chris Drury and Milan Hejduk. Deadmarsh helped them trade for defenseman Rob Blake, who along with Ray Bourque helped the Avs win a second Cup in 2001. So drafting combined with shrewd trading laid the foundation for the Avs' success.
The Stars' foundation also came through the draft, with players such as Mike Modano, Marty Turco, Jere Lehtinen and Derian Hatcher being draft picks. However, Dallas also made more liberal use of free agency than other year-in, year-out contenders, obtaining Brett Hull and Ed Belfour that way, to spark their 1999 Cup win. Aside from dealing for Sergei Zubov in the late 90s, the Stars typically use trades to fill out their depth and add key role players.
In all four examples, the draft was very important to these teams' sustained success, and teams such as Detroit and New Jersey, which have resisted the temptation to deal their prospects, have reaped the biggest reward - each winning three Cups since 1995.
Examing the most successful franchises during the past decade or so reveals some interesting trends. Clubs that I would classify as having sustained success during this time period are Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado and Dallas.
The Red Wings are gunning for their fourth Stanley Cup in the past decade, and they've been largely built through extremely astute drafting. Players such as Steve Yzerman, Sergei Fedorov, Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg, Tomas Holmstrom and Pavel Datsyuk all were Wings picks, and many of them were mid-to-low round selections. Detroit won its Cups with three different goaltenders: Mike Vernon (acquired in trade), Chris Osgood (drafted) and Dominik Hasek (free agency). And the franchise has done a good job adding key components through trades (Mathieu Schneider, Chris Chelios, Todd Bertuzzi, Kyle Calder). The Wings also have a talent for resurrecting players' careers after other teams gave up on them (Andreas Lilja, Larry Murphy, Kris Draper, Kirk Maltby, Dan Cleary). Chief among Detroit's talents has been mining Europe for star talent at bargain prices. This combination has made them one of the league's model franchises in terms of personnel.
The Devils also have drafted extremely well (Scott Niedermayer, Martin Brodeur, Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta, Patrik Elias, Ken Daneyko to name a few), and their acquisition of Scott Stevens through an NHL loophole when St. Louis signed Brendan Shanahan in the early 90s set the tone for the franchise. Like the Red Wings, New Jersey was quick to identify and sign European players who could help them, though the Devils have largely been built on North Americans, particularly U.S. college propects in the past 4-5 years.
The Avalanche reaped the rewards of many high draft choices when the franchise was in Quebec (Joe Sakic, Mats Sundin, Owen Nolan, Eric Lindros). Through trades they turned the disgruntled Lindros into Peter Forsberg and a host of other players. Nolan brought defenseman Sandis Ozolinsh, who was a key to their 1996 Cup. Other draft choices of note include Adam Foote, Adam Deadmarsh, Chris Drury and Milan Hejduk. Deadmarsh helped them trade for defenseman Rob Blake, who along with Ray Bourque helped the Avs win a second Cup in 2001. So drafting combined with shrewd trading laid the foundation for the Avs' success.
The Stars' foundation also came through the draft, with players such as Mike Modano, Marty Turco, Jere Lehtinen and Derian Hatcher being draft picks. However, Dallas also made more liberal use of free agency than other year-in, year-out contenders, obtaining Brett Hull and Ed Belfour that way, to spark their 1999 Cup win. Aside from dealing for Sergei Zubov in the late 90s, the Stars typically use trades to fill out their depth and add key role players.
In all four examples, the draft was very important to these teams' sustained success, and teams such as Detroit and New Jersey, which have resisted the temptation to deal their prospects, have reaped the biggest reward - each winning three Cups since 1995.
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